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Economic impact of terrorism

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Material Information

Title:
Economic impact of terrorism
Physical Description:
47 slides : col. ;
Language:
English
Creator:
Colie, Dennis G
University of South Florida -- Center for Economic Development Research
Publisher:
Center for Economic Development Research, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida
Place of Publication:
Tampa, Fla
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Terrorism -- Economic aspects   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Tampa Bay Region (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Orlando Metropolitan Area (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Genre:
slide   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Dennis G. Colie.
General Note:
Title from PDF of first slide (viewed Sept. 1, 2009).
General Note:
PowerPoint slides converted to PDF.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 002026858
oclc - 435497304
usfldc doi - C63-00022
usfldc handle - c63.22
System ID:
SFS0000298:00001


This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text

PAGE 1

CENTER FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH College of Business Administration located at 1101 Channelside Dr. Tampa, Florida 33602 Dennis G. Colie, Ph.D. Financial Economist Economic Impact of Terrorism

PAGE 2

Decline in Economic Activity due to Reduced Demand at Travel-related Businesses Economic Impact of Terrorism

PAGE 3

"long-term prospects are good -though it's still too soon to gauge the full impact of last month's terrorist attacks." Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, speaking before Congress on Oct. 17. Economic Impact of Terrorism

PAGE 4

Some Evidence of an Economic Slowdown before Sept. 11 Economic Impact of Terrorism

PAGE 5

Source: The Tampa Tribune Moneysense, The Associated Press, September 8, 2001, page 1. UNEMPLOYMENT DOES A JOB ON MARKET Jobless Rate Reaches Highest Point in 4 Years The Dow closed down 234.99 at 9,605.85, its lowest close since April 4. The S&P 500 index fell 20.62, to 1,085.78, its lowest close since October 1998. The NASDAQ composite index recorded its lowest close since April 4, down 17.94 at 1,687.70. ... The selling Friday began early on a Labor Department report showing the nation's unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in August its highest level in nearly four years and businesses cut 113,000 jobs ...

PAGE 7

Source: CNN The Financial Network at http://www.cnnfn.com, on August 28, 2001, 3:13 p.m. WALL ST. SHAKEN A Slumping Sentiment Number Sends Another Jolt to Stock Investors A closely watched report showed that Americans' consumer confidence fell to a four-month low in August surprising economists, who expected gains. The Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment fell to 114.3 from a revised 116.3 in July. After rising in April and May, retail sales held steady this summer keeping alive hopes that the economy can avoid recession.

PAGE 10

Post-attack Scenarios Provide Range of Economic Impacts Quick Recovery Slow Recovery

PAGE 11

Quick Recovery Scenario TRAVELING ON THE REBOUND, Sept. 11 Attacks' Effect Waning in Southeast, Tampa Tribune Oct. 4, 2001, Moneysense page 1. 37.5% decline in travel-related sales in week after attacks average 6.25% recovery in each of the following two weeks

PAGE 12

Quick Recovery Scenario Reduction in Demand Week 37 37.50% Week 38 31.25% Week 39 25.00% Week 40 18.75% Week 41 12.50% Week 42 6.25% Week 43 full recovery

PAGE 13

Slow Recovery Scenario AAA Ticket Sales Up, Tampa Tribune Oct. 26, 2001, Moneysense page 1. attraction ticket sales at AAA Southeastern offices return to 80% of last year's level during week ended Oct. 19

PAGE 14

Slow Recovery Scenario Travel Activity Rebounding after Attacks, The Business Journal of Tampa Bay Nov. 7, 2001, at http:// tampabay.bcentral.com. From AAA Auto Club South for the week ending Nov. 2: Cruise & tour sales 70% of 2000 levels Customized maps at 101% of last year Theme park sales at 63% of a year ago Hotel reservations at 86% of last year

PAGE 15

Slow Recovery Scenario Reduction in Demand Year 2001 Week 37 37.50% Week 38 31.25% Weeks 39 through 52 25.00% Year 2002 Weeks 1 through 13 18.75% Weeks 14 through 26 12.50% Week 27 full recovery

PAGE 17

Findings -Measures of Economic Impact Jobs Personal Income Output Investment Residential Investment Non Residential FIRE: Demand & Output

PAGE 33

Industry Impacts FIRE The F inance, I nsurance, and R eal E state Division of the Economy

PAGE 40

Economic Impact of Terrorism EXPECTED LOSSES FROM SEPT. 11 ATTACKS

PAGE 41

JOBS LOST Tampa Bay 7,000 to 20,000 Orlando Metro 8,500 to 26,500 Rest of Florida 19,000 to 61,000 Florida 34,500 to 107,500 0.4% to 1.2%

PAGE 42

LOST JOBS MEAN HIGHER UNEMPLOYEMNT With pre-Sept. 11slowdown and travel-related impacts expect higher unemployment rates early next year Tampa Bay 4.1% to 4.7% Orlando Metro 4.1% to 5.3% Florida 4.9% to 5.7%

PAGE 43

PERSONAL INCOME LOSS Tampa Bay $216 million to $1.2 billion Orlando Metro $276 million to $1.7 billion Rest of Florida $637 million to $2.7 billion Florida $1,129 million to $5.6 billion

PAGE 44

PERSONAL INCOME LOSS PER CAPITA Tampa Bay $59.89 to $332.70 Orlando Metro $102.31 to $630.17 Florida $70.81 to $351.24

PAGE 45

DECLINE in CAPITAL INVESTMENT (Sept. 2001 through June 2002) Residential Non-residential Tampa Bay 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% Orlando Metro 0.9% 2.2% 1.1% 3.0% Rest of Florida 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 2.2% Florida 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 2.2%

PAGE 46

FINANCE, INSURANCE, and REAL ESTATE BUSINESSES LOST SALES Tampa Bay $35.8 million to $211.4 million Orlando Metro $51.1 million to $315.4 million Rest of Florida $114.7 million to $782.8 million Florida $210.6 million to $1,309.6 million

PAGE 47

(813) 974-CEDR (2337) Fax: (813) 905-5856 E-mail: Dcolie@coba.usf.edu http://cedr.coba.usf.edu Center for Economic Development Research 1101 Channelside Dr. Tampa, FL 33602


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