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Economic structure of the Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater, FL metropolitan statistical area

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Title:
Economic structure of the Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater, FL metropolitan statistical area
Physical Description:
1 online resource (ii, 46 p.) : ;
Language:
English
Creator:
University of South Florida -- Center for Economic Development Research
Publisher:
Center for Economic Development Research
Place of Publication:
Tampa, Fla
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Economic surveys -- Florida -- Tampa   ( lcsh )
Economic surveys -- Florida -- Saint Petersburg   ( lcsh )
Economic surveys -- Florida -- Clearwater   ( lcsh )
Offshore outsourcing   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Statistics -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Statistics -- Tampa (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Statistics -- Saint Petersburg (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Statistics -- Clearwater (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
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bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
Commissioned by USF's Globalization Research Center, Innovation Insight conducted a baseline study of offshore outsourcing of labor in the Tampa - St. Peterseburg - Clearwater metropolitan statistical area. This report provides quantitative data for Innovation Insight's study.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references.
Statement of Responsibility:
prepared by the Center for Economic Development Research, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida.
General Note:
Title from PDF of cover (viewed Aug. 14, 2009).
General Note:
"August 2004."

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University of South Florida Library
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University of South Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 002024198
oclc - 430490306
usfldc doi - C63-00028
usfldc handle - c63.28
System ID:
SFS0000304:00001


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Economic Structure of the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Prepared by the CENTER FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH College of Business Administration 1101 Channelside Dr., 2nd Floor N., Tampa, Florida 33602 Office: (813) 905-5854 or Fax: (813) 905-5856 August 2004

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i Preface In order to advance effective public policy recommendations regarding the impact of globalization in the Tampa Bay area, the USF Globalization Research Center commissioned Innovation Insight to conduct a baseline study of offshore outsourcing of labor in the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Innovation Insight, an economic development private consultant, proposed a multi-modal research strategy, incorporating analyses of quantitative and qualitative data. The Center for Economic Development Research (CEDR), is a part of Innovation Insight’s research plan for this project, and provides quantitative data as a part of the multi-modal research strategy. CEDR, a unit of the University of South Florida’s (USF) College of Business Administration, initiates and conducts innovative research on economic development. The Center’s education programs are designed to cultivate excellence in regional development. Our information system serves to enhance development efforts at USF, its College of Business, and throughout the Tampa Bay area. Robert Anderson, Dean, College of Business Administration (COBA), USF Dennis Colie, Director, Center for Economic Development Research (CEDR), COBA, USF, Director and Co-principal Investigator Dave Sobush, Research Associate, CEDR, COBA, USF, Economist and Co-principal Investigator

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ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1. Introduction ……………………………………………... 1 Section 2. Changes in Economic Structure: Establishments and Employment …………………………….. 1 Section 3. Changes in Economic Structure: Workers and Their Occupations ………………………….…... 10 Section 4. Changes in Economic Structure: International Trade …………………………………………… 24 Section 5. Summary of Findings ……………………………………... 30 Appendix A – Baseline Analysis of Telemarketing Employment and Wages in Tampa Bay, 2002 ………………. 31 Appendix B – Test for Long-term Structural Changes in Employment by Demand Source …………………. 35

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1 Section 1: Introduction This report is a broad-based review, measuring the publicly available data relevant to a baseline study of the offshore outsourcing and its effect, if any, on the regional economy. To do so, we describe the economy of Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in terms of its establishments and their employees, its workers and their occupations, and the potential role of international trade on its employment patterns. During the course of this research, we realized that it is important to distinguish between jobs and employment. A job is a position or task for which a person may be employed. A job is vacant when there is no worker or employee occupying the position and performing the task. If there is at least one vacant job in an economy, the number of jobs necessarily exceeds the level of employment. It is in this sense that we specify levels of employment, rather than jobs, in this report. Offshore outsourcing is one of several means by which job dislocation – the geographic separation of a job and its incumbent – can take place. Other means include, but are not limited to, employer bankruptcy, technological innovation, family emergency, and legislation.1 Offshore outsourcing – the business practice of domestic-sponsored, foreignbased employment – takes place for two major reasons: cost reduction, and marketseeking. The costs businesses seek to lower are not solely wage costs, but the more inclusive production costs, of which wages compose a portion. If wage reduction were the key factor in cost reduction, one might expect to see offshore outsourcing flow to Equatorial Africa, rather than countries with a burgeoning middle class such as India and China. Offshore outsourcing also takes place to bolster a firm’s visibility within a foreign market, as a way to boost sales.2 Offshore outsourcing has occurred with regularity in the manufacturing and other goods producing sectors for some time. Additionally, the nature of goods production – it results in a tangible object that must be transported to market – avails itself to measurement of such activity. Cargoes are inspected and tariffs levied at ports and border crossings daily, with substantial record keeping. However, the Internet revolution has made feasible the import of services previously immune to competition from workers in foreign countries.3 As with most economic questions, the macro-/microissue pertains to the debate over offshore outsourcing. Employment has increased in the Tampa St. Petersburg 1 See Appendix A Baseline Analysis of Telemarketing Employment and Wages in Tampa Bay, 2002 for an example of potential job dislocation by legislation. 2 Slaughter, Matthew J., “Globalization and Employment by U.S. Multinationals: A Framework and Facts.” Daily Tax Report Number 58, March 26, 2004, pp. J1-J7. 3 Aaronson, Daniel, Rissman, Ellen R., and Sullivan, Daniel G., “Can Sectoral Allocation Explain the Jobless Recovery?” Economic Perspectives Second Quarter 2004, pp. 36-49.

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2 Clearwater MSA over the past decade or so. The unemployment rate has declined during that same period, from an annual rate of 7.1% in 1992 to 4.1% as of June, 2004.4 By most measures, the macro-economy of the MSA continues to grow. However, for a person whose job has left the area, or the country, these macro-level gains admittedly provide little solace. This report focuses on macro-level data, the data most commonly reported by the major statistical agencies. The locations of individual jobs are micro-level data. Collection of micro-level data on job dislocations, either through longitudinal studies or anecdotal evidence, may enhance future examinations of the effects of offshore outsourcing. The rest of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we report changes in the number of establishments and employment in the MSA and in Section 3 we report changes in the MSA’s employment by demand source and by occupations, as well as changes in the labor force. Then, in Section 4 we examine the effect of international trade on employment in the MSA. We end this report with Section 5: Summary of Findings. Section 2: Changes in Economic Structure: Establishments and Employment The purpose of this section is to report changes in the number of establishments and employment in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA from 1988 to 2003. The source of the data is the State of Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation’s ES202 files. The Agency compiles the ES-202 files in conjunction with the Unemployment Insurance program and, as such, reflects non-farm payroll employees and the establishments that employ these workers. Beginning in 2001, governments began reporting the data according to a new classification system: the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). In 2001 (for which data is available in both NAICS and SIC) and in prior years they reported the data in the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. Table 1 reports non-farm payroll employment by NAICS for 2001, 2002, and 2003. During these years overall employment in the MSA has slightly declined. Consistent with the possibility of outsourcing, employment in the Manufacturing sector and in the Information sector was down. On the other hand, employment in the Finance and Insurance sector, with which some call centers are associated, increased. 4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Preliminary data reported for June 2004.

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3 Table 1 Non-farm Payroll Employment by NAICS % Change % Change NAICS Sector 2001 2002 2001 2002 2003 2002 2003 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 12,52813,7779.97% 13,328 -3.26% Mining 4704750.96% 490 3.27% Utilities 6,3976,329-1.07% 5,607 -11.40% Construction 60,96162,6322.74% 64,530 3.03% Manufacturing 78,96174,676-5.43% 70,551 -5.52% Wholesale Trade 48,61247,721-1.83% 45,075 -5.54% Retail Trade 140,265140,6090.25% 135,851 -3.38% Transportation & Warehousing 35,87733,984-5.28% 31,746 -6.58% Information 37,59134,516-8.18% 34,126 -1.13% Finance & Insurance 69,28469,4030.17% 70,675 1.83% Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 19,46919,6100.73% 20,659 5.35% Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 67,17665,814-2.03% 64,926 -1.35% Management of Co.'s & Enterprises 11,87713,58814.40% 14,244 4.83% Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 171,963152,073-11.57% 154,818 1.81% Educational Services 72,74674,4602.36% 74,977 0.69% Health Care & Social Assistance 126,344129,9752.87% 132,825 2.19% Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 19,00319,4202.19% 18,766 -3.37% Accommodation & Food Services 83,26887,7825.42% 88,767 1.12% Other Services (except Public Admin.) 31,96634,2006.99% 33,178 -2.99% Public Administration 54,81955,5621.36% 54,498 -1.92% Unclassified 835752-9.91% 1,382 83.67% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 1,150,4121,139,357-0.96% 1,133,021 -0.56% Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation ES202 (Unemployment Insurance) data as follows: Year 2001 annual file Year 2002 average of quarters 1 through 4 Year 2003 average of quarters 1 through 3 only We suspect, however, that employment levels reported for each NAICS sector are unstable during this period as the transition from SIC to NAICS takes place. For example, a new classification, NAICS sector 55 for Management of Companies and Enterprises, causes some employees to be reclassified away from their firm’s principal business, e.g. employees at an electric power generation company’s headquarters are reclassified from the Utilities sector to NAICS 55. Table 2 shows establishments by NAICS for 2001, 2002, and 2003. Unlike the slight downtrend in employment over this period, the number of establishments increased by about 3.5% and 4.2%, respectively, year-over-year. Again, consistent with the possibility of outsourcing, establishments in the Manufacturing sector declined.

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4 Table 2 Establishments by NAICS % Change % Change NAICS Sector 2001 2002 2001 2002 2003 2002 2003 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 509497-2.46% 485 -2.25% Mining 212411.90% 24 3.55% Utilities 839412.95% 101 7.38% Construction 6,1476,4004.11% 6,706 4.79% Manufacturing 2,6912,623-2.52% 2,577 -1.76% Wholesale Trade 4,4974,5861.97% 4,711 2.74% Retail Trade 8,7038,9673.03% 9,293 3.64% Transportation & Warehousing 1,3271,317-0.79% 1,354 2.82% Information 1,1331,1703.27% 1,236 5.64% Finance & Insurance 3,7773,8882.93% 4,206 8.19% Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 3,0483,1643.81% 3,372 6.56% Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 8,5178,7302.50% 9,146 4.76% Management of Co.'s & Enterprises 2312362.27% 252 6.53% Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 4,1924,3142.90% 4,510 4.56% Educational Services 6596681.40% 698 4.40% Health Care & Social Assistance 5,7445,9784.08% 6,186 3.48% Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 8078667.25% 884 2.18% Accommodation & Food Services 3,8844,1546.96% 4,367 5.12% Other Services (except Public Admin.) 5,5325,6702.49% 5,756 1.53% Public Administration 4194230.95% 429 1.34% Unclassified 45681378.18% 1,015 24.92% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 62,37764,5783.53% 67,308 4.23% Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation ES202 (Unemployment Insurance) data as follows: Year 2001 annual file Year 2002 average of quarters 1 through 4 Year 2003 average of quarters 1 through 3 only Table 3 reports non-farm payroll employment by SIC industry divisions from 1988 through 2001. Panel A shows the average annual levels of employment, Panel B is the year-over-year percent change in employment levels, and Panel C is the yearly percent of total employment accounted for by each industry division.

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5 Table 3 Non-farm Payroll Employment by SIC Panel A Employment (units) Industry Division 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 19,60020,74520,62119,89819,066 19,43920,385 Mining and Construction 58,70854,55850,49344,61441,106 41,50443,210 Manufacturing 94,15795,75794,08586,91784,801 86,25086,907 Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 46,19747,76248,41048,02447,970 48,31549,498 Trade 227,398237,416241,378230,393225,675 228,859236,615 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 64,15264,49464,24764,80762,702 63,35669,454 Services 273,148288,995310,968317,731322,894 342,581364,104 Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 40,33142,29944,19346,32248,721 47,37848,808 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 823,691852,026874,395858,706852,935 877,682918,981 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 20,41020,21321,18020,09721,131 21,40923,727 Mining and Construction 44,79547,04250,03052,29455,431 56,84758,673 Manufacturing 85,48485,75686,17988,31689,046 89,03290,818 Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 50,82852,95454,21154,36160,135 60,46765,062 Trade 242,966251,277255,155253,218255,808 259,806270,762 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 64,98967,25370,44976,51282,126 81,92687,448 Services 389,366414,765437,954449,584471,687 493,840504,400 Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 53,12754,59552,93652,77954,391 56,16555,799 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 951,965993,8551,028,0941,047,1611,089,755 1,119,4921,156,689 Panel B Employment (% change) Industry Division 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 5.84% -0.60% -3.51% -4.18% 1.96% 4.87% 0.12% Mining and Construction -7.07%-7.45% -11.64%-7.86% 0.97% 4.11% 3.67% Manufacturing 1.70% -1.75% -7.62% -2.43% 1.71% 0.76% -1.64% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 3.39% 1.36% -0.80% -0.11% 0.72% 2.45% 2.69% Trade 4.41% 1.67% -4.55% -2.05% 1.41% 3.39% 2.68% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 0.53% -0.38% 0.87% -3.25% 1.04% 9.62% -6.43% Services 5.80% 7.60% 2.17% 1.62% 6.10% 6.28% 6.94% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 4.88% 4.48% 4.82% 5.18% -2.76% 3.02% 8.85% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 3.44% 2.63% -1.79% -0.67% 2.90% 4.71% 3.59%

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6 Panel B (continued) Employment (% change) Industry Division 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AverageStd. Dev. Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries -0.97%4.78% -5.11% 5.15% 1.32% 10.83% 1.58% 4.61% Mining and Construction 5.02% 6.35% 4.53% 6.00% 2.55% 3.21% 0.18% 6.28% Manufacturing 0.32% 0.49% 2.48% 0.83% -0.02% 2.01% -0.24% 2.69% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 4.18% 2.37% 0.28% 10.62% 0.55% 7.60% 2.72% 3.24% Trade 3.42% 1.54% -0.76% 1.02% 1.56% 4.22% 1.38% 2.56% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 3.48% 4.75% 8.61% 7.34% -0.24% 6.74% 2.51% 4.77% Services 6.52% 5.59% 2.66% 4.92% 4.70% 2.14% 4.85% 2.03% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 2.76% -3.04%-0.30% 3.05% 3.26% -0.65% 2.58% 3.41% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 4.40% 3.45% 1.85% 4.07% 2.73% 3.32% 2.66% 1.90% Panel C Employment (% total) Industry Division 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 2.38% 2.43% 2.36% 2.32% 2.24% 2.21% 2.22% 2.14% Mining and Construction 7.13% 6.40% 5.77% 5.20% 4.82% 4.73% 4.70% 4.71% Manufacturing 11.43%11.24%10.76% 10.12% 9.94% 9.83% 9.46% 8.98% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 5.61% 5.61% 5.54% 5.59% 5.62% 5.50% 5.39% 5.34% Trade 27.61%27.86%27.61% 26.83% 26.46% 26.08% 25.75% 25.52% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 7.79% 7.57% 7.35% 7.55% 7.35% 7.22% 7.56% 6.83% Services 33.16%33.92%35.56% 37.00% 37.86% 39.03% 39.62% 40.90% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 4.90% 4.96% 5.05% 5.39% 5.71% 5.40% 5.31% 5.58% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% 100.00%100.00%100.00% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AverageStd. Dev. Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 2.03% 2.06% 1.92% 1.94% 1.91% 2.05% 2.14% 0.17% Mining and Construction 4.73% 4.87% 4.99% 5.09% 5.08% 5.07% 5.09% 0.49% Manufacturing 8.63% 8.38% 8.43% 8.17% 7.95% 7.85% 9.21% 1.10% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 5.33% 5.27% 5.19% 5.52% 5.40% 5.62% 5.46% 0.14% Trade 25.28%24.82%24.18% 23.47% 23.21% 23.41% 25.42% 1.55% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 6.77% 6.85% 7.31% 7.54% 7.32% 7.56% 7.29% 0.29% Services 41.73%42.60%42.93% 43.28% 44.11% 43.61% 40.17% 3.30% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 5.49% 5.15% 5.04% 4.99% 5.02% 4.82% 5.23% 0.27% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% 100.00%100.00%0.00% Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation ES202 (Unemployment Insurance) Q1 monthly averages Since 1997 there has been over one million people working in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA each year and that number has grown steadily through 2001.5 Between 1988 and 2001, employment in the MSA increased on average 2.66% each year about 25,000 employees per year with a low standard deviation of 1.90%, which indicates a stable employment structure. The only industry division to experience 5 As reported in Table 1, above, total employment fell in 2002 and 2003, but remained above the one million worker level.

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7 a decline in employment over the period was Manufacturing. In 1988, Manufacturing represented about 11.43% of total employment and by 2001 this percentage had fallen to 7.85% of total employment. Meanwhile, Services, which is the largest division of employment, had risen from 33.16% to 43.61% of total employment. Table 4 reports establishments by SIC industry divisions from 1988 through 2001. Panel A shows the average annual number of establishments, Panel B is the yearover-year percent change in the number of establishments, and Panel C is the yearly percent of total establishments accounted for by each industry division. Table 4 Establishments by SIC Panel A Establishments (units) Industry Division 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 1,3971,4181,4941,5471,564 1,5851,580 Mining and Construction 5,9235,7035,5285,2474,975 4,9064,829 Manufacturing 2,5812,5042,5242,5282,436 2,4482,509 Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 1,3421,3701,4121,4961,632 1,7211,762 Trade 13,17613,42113,27214,53415,103 15,43415,738 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 4,4804,5004,4704,7384,867 4,9705,125 Services 16,97917,78018,39318,68919,464 20,27620,407 Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 316305330634775 560765 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 46,19447,00147,42349,41350,816 51,90052,715 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 1,6111,5771,6041,6241,708 1,7261,744 Mining and Construction 4,7435,0185,0505,1925,518 5,7485,791 Manufacturing 2,4022,4832,4332,5242,532 2,5252,589 Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 1,8051,9001,9081,9061,988 2,0152,176 Trade 15,68615,90716,46516,05116,052 16,19816,485 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 5,2235,4695,5115,5985,702 5,8666,302 Services 20,71521,79322,49223,04023,948 24,19924,871 Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 1,6171,9121,1141,4191,478 2,0691,233 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 53,80256,05956,57757,35458,926 60,34661,191

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8 Panel B Establishments (% change) Industry Division 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 1.50%5.36%3.55%1.10% 1.34%-0.32%1.96% Mining and Construction -3.71%-3.07%-5.08%-5.18% -1.39%-1.57%-1.78% Manufacturing -2.98%0.80%0.16%-3.64% 0.49%2.49%-4.26% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 2.09%3.07%5.95%9.09% 5.45%2.38%2.44% Trade 1.86%-1.11%9.51%3.91% 2.19%1.97%-0.33% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 0.45%-0.67%6.00%2.72% 2.12%3.12%1.91% Services 4.72%3.45%1.61%4.15% 4.17%0.65%1.51% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments -3.48%8.20%92.12%22.24% -27.74%36.61%111.37% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 1.75%0.90%4.20%2.84% 2.13%1.57%2.06% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AverageStd. Dev. Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries -2.11%1.71%1.25%5.17%1.05% 1.04%1.74%2.02% Mining and Construction 5.80%0.64%2.81%6.28%4.17% 0.75%-0.10%3.90% Manufacturing 3.37%-2.01%3.74%0.32%-0.28% 2.53%0.06%2.64% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 5.26%0.42%-0.10%4.30%1.36% 7.99%3.82%2.82% Trade 1.41%3.51%-2.51%0.01%0.91% 1.77%1.78%2.93% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 4.71%0.77%1.58%1.86%2.88% 7.43%2.68%2.25% Services 5.20%3.21%2.44%3.94%1.05% 2.78%2.99%1.46% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 18.24%-41.74%27.38%4.16%39.99% -40.41%19.00%45.60% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 4.20%0.92%1.37%2.74%2.41% 1.40%2.19%1.08% Panel C Employment (% total) Industry Division 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 3.02%3.02%3.15%3.13%3.08% 3.05%3.00%2.99% Mining and Construction 12.82%12.13%11.66%10.62%9.79% 9.45%9.16%8.82% Manufacturing 5.59%5.33%5.32%5.12%4.79% 4.72%4.76%4.46% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 2.91%2.91%2.98%3.03%3.21% 3.32%3.34%3.35% Trade 28.52%28.55%27.99%29.41%29.72% 29.74%29.85%29.16% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 9.70%9.57%9.43%9.59%9.58% 9.58%9.72%9.71% Services 36.76%37.83%38.78%37.82%38.30% 39.07%38.71%38.50% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 0.68%0.65%0.70%1.28%1.53% 1.08%1.45%3.01% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% 100.00%100.00%100.00%

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9 Panel C (Continued) Employment (% total) Industry Division 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AverageStd. Dev. Agriculture, Forestry, & Fisheries 2.81%2.84%2.83%2.90%2.86% 2.85%2.96%0.12% Mining and Construction 8.95%8.93%9.05%9.36%9.53% 9.46%9.76%1.06% Manufacturing 4.43%4.30%4.40%4.30%4.18% 4.23%4.64%0.40% Transportation, Communication, & Utilities 3.39%3.37%3.32%3.37%3.34% 3.56%3.27%0.19% Trade 28.38%29.10%27.99%27.24%26.84% 26.94%28.53%1.07% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 9.76%9.74%9.76%9.68%9.72% 10.30%9.70%0.20% Services 38.88%39.75%40.17%40.64%40.10% 40.64%39.17%0.99% Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments 3.41%1.97%2.47%2.51%3.43% 2.02%1.96%0.95% Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA 100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00% 100.00%100.00%0.00% Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation ES202 (Unemployment Insurance) Q1 monthly averages Between 1988 and 2001 the number of establishments in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA has increased from approximately 46,000 to 61,000, an average annual gain of 2.19%. The standard deviation of this annual percentage gain was 1.08%, indicating steady but stable growth. This addition of over 1,100 establishments, on average per year, is a notable source of job growth and employment in the region. Only the Mining and Construction industry division experienced a small decline in the number of establishments during the period. The number of Manufacturing establishments barely eked out a positive annual average increase of 0.06%; 2,581 manufacturers were counted in 1988 and 2,589 in 2001. As with employment, Services, which is also the largest division of establishments, rose from 36.76% of total establishments in 1988 to 40.64% in 2001. Because a significant shift in the divisional allocations of employment or establishments is indicative of a major change in a region’s economic structure, and consistent with large-scale outsourcing, we test the data for evidence of structural change. The test statistic is the square root of the summation of weighted (by its percentage in the total economy) squared deviations of annual growth of employment and establishments for each industry division.6 Thus, the test statistic is similar to a standard deviation from annual average divisional percent change. Table 5 presents our findings. 6 Reference Lilien, David M., 1982, “Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment,” Journal of Political Economy Vol. 90, No. 4, August, pp. 777 – 793.

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10 Table 5 Tests for Structural Change in Allocation of Non-farm Employment and Establishments Year EmploymentEstablishments 1989 3.23%2.92% 1990 4.26%2.62% 1991 4.40%10.97% 1992 2.83%4.05% 1993 2.67%3.60% 1994 2.27%4.42% 1995 3.99%19.08% 1996 2.09%3.28% 1997 2.53%6.34% 1998 2.63%4.68% 1999 2.60%2.10% 2000 1.89%7.10% 2001 2.18%6.44% 2002 5.64%8.60% 2003 4.28%3.26% Source: Compiled by CEDR SIC divisional structure for 1989 through 2001 NAICS sectoral structure for 2002 and 2003 Heuristically, a test statistic greater than 4% signifies a potential significant shift in the divisional or sectoral allocations of the economy. For employment, we find test statistics over the 4% threshold in 1990 and 1991 and again in 2002 and 2003. The finding for 2002 and 2003 is consistent with a shift in the employment structure and recent jobs dislocation in the MSA. However, as mentioned above, we have concern about the reliability of the ES-202 data during the transition from SIC to NAICS. After 1992, test statistics for establishments often exceed the 4% threshold. And, during the 5-year period from 1997 to 2002 the test statistic is over 4% in five of the six years. In 2003, the test statistics drops below the threshold. An interpretation of this finding is that the MSA is recently undergoing a major shift in the allocation of the number of establishments per industry or sectoral division.7 7 An alternative explanation of this finding is a data anomaly. From Panel B, Table 4, note that the % change in the industry division for Public Administration & Non-classifiable Establishments exhibits large volatility (measured by standard deviation) and even though only a small % of total establishments (Panel C) may unduly influence the test statistic. We believe the volatility in this division is due to how the ES202 data is collected, resulting in new establishments being initially unclassified.

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11 Section 3: Changes in Economic Structure: Workers and Their Occupations The purpose of this section is to report employment by demand source and by occupations, as well as the labor force in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA from 1993 to 2004. The sources of the labor force data are the REMI Policy Insight model and the Census Bureau’s 5–Percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) databases for the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses The Regional Economic Model Inc. (REMI) model is a long-run, general equilibrium, regional economic model. In 1980, REMI was founded to build, maintain, and advise on the use of its regional economic model. Since then the model has been widely accepted as an effective economic planning and forecasting tool. Users in Florida include the Governor’s office and the Agency for Workforce Innovation, Labor Market Statistics; the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council; Florida State University; and the University of South Florida. Currently, the “Last Available Historical Year” for the REMI model is 2000. Thus, labor force levels and percentages reported in this section for years 2001 through 2004 are REMI forecasts. REMI’s source for labor force data is the U.S. Census Bureau’s State Population Estimates and Demographic Components of Population Change. REMI derives occupational data from the Occupational Matrix of Bureau of Labor Statistics by linear interpolation based on population. Further, REMI’s principal source for employment data is Covered Employment and Wages (ES-202), a quarterly collection of employee and wage data from all employers participating in Florida’s unemployment insurance program. However, REMI supplements the ES-202 data with a product of the Bureau of Economic Analysis called the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). The REIS provides data beyond the wage and salary jobs, which are usually covered by ES-202, by including sole proprietorships and military employment. (In addition, REMI may use the County Business Patterns information from the U.S. Census Bureau to estimate industry employment when ES-202 data are suppressed due to a confidentiality constraint. Hence, REMI’s employment levels are always greater than those levels strictly indicated by ES-202 data.) We report labor force and occupational data by place of residence, but employment data by place of work. Table 6 reports employment by sector in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA from 1993 to 2004. In 1993 there were approximately 961,600 workers employed within the MSA’s Private Non-Farm sector and that number of workers grew to almost 1,340,000 by 2004. The annual growth rate of Private Non-Farm employment was 3%. Within the Private Non-Farm sector, manufacturing employment went virtually unchanged between 1993 and 2004, although year-to-year changes did occur within this subsector. Thus, almost all of the employment growth was in non-manufacturing industries, going from about 871,300 employees in 1993 to nearly 1,2453,800 employees in 2004.

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12 Farm employment, which represents a very small portion of total employment within the MSA, increased by about 1,000 workers from 11,200 in 1993 to 12,200 in 2004. Table 6 Employment by Sector Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Sector Employment (units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Private Non-Farm 961,599 1,003,207 1,044,437 1,098,6881,142,1701,205,4221,263,8391,303,8201,340,2631,324,008 1,321,132 1,334,46 7 Government 131,939 134,513 135,918 135,908138,003139,185140,132143,699146,577149,795 150,184 148,660 Farm 11,200 11,885 11,139 10,41010,94010,98611,43412,58912,49612,401 12,306 12,208 By Sector (Total) 1,104,738 1,149,605 1,191,494 1,245,0061,291,1131,355,5931,415,4051,460,1081,499,3361,486,204 1,483,622 1,495 ,335 Sector Employment (% change) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f AverageStd. Dev. Private Non-Farm 4.3% 4.1% 5.2% 4.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.2% 2.8% -1.2% -0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 2.3% Government 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 0.3% -1.0% 1.1% 1.1% Farm 6.1% -6.3% -6.5% 5.1% 0.4% 4.1% 10.1% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% 0.9% 5.1% By Sector (Total) 4.1% 3.6% 4.5% 3.7% 5.0% 4.4% 3.2% 2.7% -0.9% -0.2% 0.8% 2.8% 2.0% Private Non-Farm Sector (units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Manufacturing 90,306 90,661 90,352 90,98592,18493,24693,83594,76793,89790,692 89,888 90,727 Non-Manufacturing 871,293 912,546 954,085 1,007,7031,049,9861,112,1761,170,0041,209,0531,246,3661,233,317 1,231,244 1,243,740 Private Non-Farm Sector (% change) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f AverageStd. Dev. Manufacturing 0.4% -0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% -0.9% -3.4% -0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% Non-Manufacturing 4.7% 4.6% 5.6% 4.2% 5.9% 5.2% 3.3% 3.1% -1.0% -0.2% 1.0% 3.3% 2.4% Government Sector (units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f State and Local 100,810 105,541 107,142 106,659108,412109,393110,568113,321115,373117,098 115,772 113,828 Federal Civilian 18,069 17,898 17,901 18,02017,81418,09418,12618,94519,05319,158 19,501 19,345 Federal Military 13,060 11,074 10,875 11,22911,77711,69811,43811,43312,15213,539 14,911 15,487 Government Sector (% change) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f AverageStd. Dev. State and Local 4.7% 1.5% -0.5% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% -1.1% -1.7% 1.1% 1.8% Federal Civilian -0.9% 0.0% 0.7% -1.1% 1.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8% -0.8% 0.6% 1.6% Federal Military -15.2% -1.8% 3.3% 4.9% -0.7% -2.2% 0.0% 6.3% 11.4% 10.1% 3.9% 1.8% 7.3% f = REMI forecast Between 1993 and 2004, employment in the Government sector increased at an average annual rate of just over 1% and by 2004 there were approximately 148,700 people working for the government in the MSA. In 2004, State and local government employment was 113,800, the federal civilian workforce numbered 19,300 persons, and

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13 federal military personnel working in the MSA totaled nearly 15,500.8 Military employment showed rapid growth beginning in 2001, presumably because MacDill Air Force Base, a key command headquarters for forces in the Middle East, is located within the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA. Table 7 reports the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA’s employment by demand source from 1993 to 2004. Demand source means the origin of the want for goods or services, i.e. the amount of employment needed to fulfill various types of demand. Table 7 Employment by Demand Source Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Panel A Employment (units) By Demand Source (Priv. Non-Farm) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Intermediate 202,240 208,447 216,552 227,576233,439242,693256,932263,122268,765263,726 261,371 262,869 Local Consumption 397,385 405,712 426,345 443,169454,562469,857478,505489,923511,644506,320 505,279 504,942 Government Demand 14,140 13,931 14,730 15,30917,68517,97618,92019,47720,82621,411 21,700 21,655 Investment Activity 50,017 56,129 56,630 61,35068,87477,07179,26985,28491,69690,016 88,170 91,049 Exports to Rest of Florida 136,073 139,872 140,412 153,287155,521163,006166,565172,860176,927175,597 175,488 177,216 Exports to Rest of Nation 129,772 145,138 153,362 160,086170,814194,822225,456234,041233,487232,315 235,416 241,732 Exports to Rest of World 31,973 33,977 36,406 37,91141,27639,99738,19339,11336,91934,623 33,708 35,005 Total Private Non-Farm 961,600 1,003,206 1,044,437 1,098,688 1,142,171 1,205,422 1,263,840 1,303,820 1,340,264 1,324,008 1, 321,132 1,334,468 Panel B Employment (% of Total) By Demand Source (Priv. Non-Farm) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Intermediate 21.0% 20.8% 20.7% 20.7% 20.4% 20.1% 20.3% 20.2% 20.1% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% Local Consumption 41.3% 40.4% 40.8% 40.3% 39.8% 39.0% 37.9% 37.6% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 37.8% Government Demand 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Investment Activity 5.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.6% 6.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.5% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% Exports to Rest of Florida 14.2% 13.9% 13.4% 14.0% 13.6% 13.5% 13.2% 13.3% 13.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% Exports to Rest of Nation 13.5% 14.5% 14.7% 14.6% 15.0% 16.2% 17.8% 18.0% 17.4% 17.5% 17.8% 18.1% Exports to Rest of World 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Total Private Non-Farm 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Panel C Employment (% change) By Demand Source (Priv. Non-Farm) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f AverageStd. Dev.Intermediate 3.1% 3.9% 5.1% 2.6% 4.0% 5.9% 2.4% 2.1% -1.9% -0.9% 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% Local Consumption 2.1% 5.1% 3.9% 2.6% 3.4% 1.8% 2.4% 4.4% -1.0% -0.2% -0.1% 2.2% 2.0% Government Demand -1.5% 5.7% 3.9% 15.5% 1.6% 5.3% 2.9% 6.9% 2.8% 1.3% -0.2% 4.0% 4.6% Investment Activity 12.2% 0.9% 8.3% 12.3% 11.9% 2.9% 7.6% 7.5% -1.8% -2.1% 3.3% 5.7% 5.4% Exports to Rest of Florida 2.8% 0.4% 9.2% 1.5% 4.8% 2.2% 3.8% 2.4% -0.8% -0.1% 1.0% 2.5% 2.8% Exports to Rest of Nation 11.8% 5.7% 4.4% 6.7% 14.1% 15.7% 3.8% -0.2% -0.5% 1.3% 2.7% 6.0% 5.6% Exports to Rest of World 6.3% 7.1% 4.1% 8.9% -3.1% -4.5% 2.4% -5.6% -6.2% -2.6% 3.8% 1.0% 5.5% Total Private Non-Farm 4.3% 4.1% 5.2% 4.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.2% 2.8% -1.2% -0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 2.3% f = REMI forecast 8 Many federal military personnel may frequently be on temporary assignment outside the MSA.

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14 In Panel A we enumerate private, non-farm employment by demand source. Employment may be full-time or part-time and a worker may hold more than one job, and thus be counted more than once in an employment number. In Panel B we show employment by demand source as a percent of total private, non-farm employment in a given year. And, in Panel C we report the year-over-year percent change in employment by demand source, as well as the average yearly percent change and standard deviation of the yearly average percent changes. Not unusual for an economic region, in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA the highest level of employment is for the production of goods and services for Local Consumption. In 1993 employment for Local Consumption was about 41% of total private, non-farm employment, but that percentage has declined to about 37% or 38% in recent years. Other demand sources accounting for relatively large portions of total employment are the demand for Intermediate products and the demand for Exports to the Rest of the Nation.9 Employment to meet the demand for Intermediate products has declined slightly from 21% of total employment in 1993 to just fewer than 20% in 2004. Conversely, employment demand due to Exports to the Rest of the Nation has increased from 13% of total employment in 1993 to around 18% in 2004. Over the period 1993 to 2004, the fastest growing employment category by demand source was Exports to the Rest of the Nation, which grew at an average annual rate of 6%. Employment for Investment Activity also experienced relatively rapid growth at slightly below 6% over the same period.10 The slowest growing employment category by demand source from 1993 to 2004 was Exports to the Rest of the World for which employment increased at an average annual rate of only 1%. Interestingly, however, the more volatile demand sources (measured by standard deviation of annual grow rate of employment) were Exports to the Rest of the Nation, Exports to the Rest of the World, and Investment Activity. In Appendix B, we provide more detailed information for each demand source by subdividing the descriptive employment statistics by industry division as well as forming Quadrant Correlations. By interpreting the Quadrant Correlations, we find evidence consistent with long-term structural change of increasing employment to fulfill demand for local consumption and demand by government for goods and services. 9 Intermediate products are goods and services used in the region’s production processes, as opposed to local consumption; exports to the “Rest of the Nation” means exports demanded within the U.S. but outside Florida. 10 Investment Activity refers to the production of the area’s capital stock, i.e. residential and non-residential construction as well as equipment.

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15 Economists generally recognize two motives for US multinational enterprises to decide to expand abroad. (See, for example, “Globalization and Employment by U.S. Multinationals: A Framework and Facts,” by Matthew J. Slaughter, associate professor of business administration at Dartmouth, and printed in the March 26, 2004 issue of Daily Tax Report by the Bureau of National Affairs, Inc., Washington, D.C. 20037.) The motives are 1) to reduce production costs or 2) to increase market share outside the US. Increasing regional Exports to the Rest of the World would be consistent with the latter motive to expand markets abroad. However, we find no empirical evidence for increasing employment for Exports to the Rest of the World relative to overall employment in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA. Table 8 reports employment by occupation for residents of the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA from 1993 to 2004. Consistently, the most prevalent occupational category is Sales and Sales-related Office and Administrative work. In 2004, this category comprised 30.5% of total employment. From 1993 to 2004, Sales and Sales-related Office and Administrative employment increased by 33.3%, which is roughly in line with the total increase in employment of 35.6%. However, the greatest increase in employment in the MSA in an occupational category was experienced by the Computer and Mathematical occupations, which grew by 169.3%. Still, in 2004 the Computer and Mathematical occupations represented only 3.8% of the area’s total employment. Table 8 Employment by Occupation Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Employment (units) Occupations 1993 1994 1995 199619971998199920002001 f 2002 f 2003 f 2004 f % Growth Management, Business, Financial 108,149 113,079 117,084 123,097129,905138,316145,951152,781156,578 155,312 154,985156,49944.7% % of Total Employment 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 10.0%10.2%10.3%10.4%10.5%10.5% 10.5% 10.6%10.6% Computer and Mathematical 21,143 23,802 26,968 29,76734,06138,71544,43447,65150,518 51,850 53,91856,931169.3% % of Total Employment 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4%2.7%2.9%3.2%3.3%3.4% 3.5% 3.7%3.8% Architecture and Engineering 20,127 20,386 21,028 22,06823,69824,59425,97828,35828,775 28,296 28,14528,48341.5% % of Total Employment 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%1.9%1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9% 1.9% 1.9%1.9% Life, Physical, Social Science 7,682 7,951 8,288 8,6969,3039,75210,30211,25511,532 11,556 11,61711,78953.5% % of Total Employment 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8% 0.8% 0.8%0.8% Education, Training, Library, Community & Social Services 41,584 43,452 44,223 45,47346,28348,40150,15853,13654,858 55,516 55,44155,74434.1% % of Total Employment 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.7%3.7% 3.8% 3.8%3.8% Legal 8,897 9,109 9,424 10,07011,04211,61312,31113,99114,392 14,427 14,47214,68865.1% % of Total Employment 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%1.0%1.0% 1.0% 1.0%1.0%

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16 Table 8 (Continued) Employment by Occupation Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Employment (units) Occupations 1993 1994 1995 199619971998199920002001 f 2002 f 2003 f 2004 f % Growth Art, Design, Entertainment, Media 13,439 14,174 14,906 15,72516,83718,10019,37919,94520,482 20,344 20,39320,69554.0% % of Total Employment 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.4% 1.4% 1.4%1.4% Healthcare Practice, Technology & Support 77,544 80,944 85,697 88,64587,48789,51391,90592,84796,042 96,514 97,03497,97026.3% % of Total Employment 7.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.2%6.8%6.7%6.5%6.4%6.5% 6.6% 6.6%6.6% Protective Services 30,239 32,452 34,352 35,47937,90040,40443,25844,57045,860 46,311 46,62347,28256.4% % of Total Employment 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%3.0%3.0%3.1%3.1%3.1% 3.1% 3.2%3.2% Food Preparation and Serving 80,881 85,806 86,271 91,42389,07690,13191,48991,65893,118 92,252 92,60093,38715.5% % of Total Employment 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4%7.0%6.7%6.5%6.3%6.3% 6.3% 6.3%6.3% Building and Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 53,019 54,772 56,803 58,80662,12166,33769,80771,23072,564 71,884 71,53272,21036.2% % of Total Employment 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%4.9%4.9%5.0%4.9%4.9% 4.9% 4.9%4.9% Personal Care and Services 28,700 29,296 30,006 31,68432,74635,18735,46936,07836,915 36,848 36,63537,01729.0% % of Total Employment 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5% 2.5% 2.5%2.5% Sales & Sales-related Office & Admin 338,938 352,717 366,932 383,288397,100418,562437,052449,590459,642 452,955 450,636451,78633.3% % of Total Employment 31.0% 31.0% 31.1% 31.1%31.0%31.1%31.1%31.0%30.9% 30.8% 30.7%30.5% Farming, Fishing, Forestry 14,562 15,229 14,918 15,07215,35315,17715,67316,60317,249 17,116 17,01617,00616.8% % of Total Employment 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.2% 1.2% 1.2%1.1% Maintenance and Repair 97,044 100,169 103,218 107,945113,233118,891123,260127,742134,794 131,481 128,421127,36931.2% % of Total Employment 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7%8.9%8.8%8.8%8.8%9.1% 8.9% 8.7%8.6% Production 77,479 79,416 81,497 83,99487,20290,65893,75595,13895,967 93,740 93,29694,31321.7% % of Total Employment 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%6.5% 6.4% 6.4%6.4% Transportation and Material Moving 72,253 75,778 79,005 82,54785,99189,54993,78696,10097,911 96,289 95,98296,72433.9% % of Total Employment 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.6%6.6% 6.5% 6.5%6.5% Total Employment 1,091,680 1,138,532 1,180,620 1,233,779 1,279,338 1,343,900 1,403,967 1,448,673 1,487,197 1,472,691 1,468,746 1,479,8933 5.6% f = REMI forecast

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17 Table 9 shows the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater labor force from 1993 to 2004. The labor force includes the region’s residents who are employed plus those actively seeking work. In 2004, the MSA’s labor force totaled nearly 1.3 million residents resulting in a participation rate (labor force divided by population) of 78.2% of the prime working-age population, ages 15 to 64. Since 1993, the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA labor force has grown by 27.5%. Table 9 Labor Force Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Workers (units) 1993 1994 1995 199619971998199920002001 f 2002 f 2003 f 2004 f % Growth White 831,755 846,256 854,814 865,554881,444893,289906,817923,690939,862 949,791 956,783964,07615.9% Black 88,846 92,089 95,678 99,372104,489110,278114,735113,757118,524 122,398 125,976129,59545.9% Other 16,662 17,759 19,352 20,61822,19923,71624,83345,64647,445 49,018 50,50352,033212.3% Hispanic 79,284 83,597 88,528 95,850103,838109,954116,790127,126133,501 139,378 144,952150,44289.8% Total Labor Force 1,016,547 1,039,701 1,058,372 1,081,394 1,111,970 1,137,237 1,163,175 1,210,219 1,239,332 1,260,585 1,2 78,214 1,296,14627.5% Workers by Gender (units) 1993 1994 1995 199619971998199920002001 f 2002 f 2003 f 2004 f % Growth Males 536,227 543,587 551,749 561,808574,684586,113596,776624,194637,647 646,774 654,256661,88823.4% Females 480,321 496,114 506,622 519,586537,284551,123566,400586,024601,684 613,810 623,959634,25732.0% Participation Rates 1993 1994 1995 199619971998199920002001 f 2002 f 2003 f 2004 f Total (Ages 15-64) 74.4% 74.8% 75.0% 75.5%75.9%76.0%76.3%77.1%77.6% 77.9% 78.0%78.2% Total (Ages 15-101) 57.5% 58.2% 58.4% 58.9%59.5%59.8%60.4%61.6%62.3% 62.7% 63.0%63.3% White (Ages 15-64) 75.3% 75.8% 76.1% 76.5%76.8%76.7%77.0%77.9%78.4% 78.7% 78.8%79.0% White (Ages 15-101) 56.5% 57.1% 57.4% 57.8%58.3%58.5%59.0%59.8%60.5% 60.9% 61.2%61.5% Black (Ages 15-64) 69.7% 70.0% 70.3% 70.8%71.3%72.3%72.4%73.0%73.6% 73.9% 74.1%74.3% Black (Ages 15-101) 63.3% 63.8% 64.1% 64.6%65.1%66.1%66.3%66.7%67.4% 67.7% 67.9%68.1% Other (Ages 15-64) 67.6% 68.1% 69.4% 70.2%71.1%72.3%72.8%74.5%74.8% 75.0% 75.0%75.2% Other (Ages 15-101) 63.9% 64.2% 65.4% 65.9%66.7%67.7%68.1%69.5%69.4% 69.2% 68.8%68.4% Hispanic (Ages 15-64) 71.9% 72.1% 71.8% 73.1%74.4%74.9%75.4%76.4%77.0% 77.4% 77.7%78.0% Hispanic (Ages 15-101) 62.1% 62.2% 62.0% 63.0%64.3%64.3%64.6%68.7%69.3% 69.7% 70.1%70.4% f = REMI forecast While the Hispanic and Black segments of the labor force have grown more than the White segment since 1993, the nebulous “Other” segment has the highest percent growth. Furthermore, the female segment has growth more than the male segment since 1993 (32.0% versus 23.4%). For the working-age population, ages 15 to 64, the White segment has the highest participation rate, 79%, closely followed by the Hispanic segment at 78%.

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18 We also report changes in the composition of the labor force, with respect to prior residence and place of birth, in the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA between 1990 and 2000. The sources of this labor force data are the Census Bureau’s 5–Percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) databases for the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses. The PUMS database, a sub-sample of the census long-form questionnaire, contains individual records of the characteristics for a sample of people and housing units. The characteristics include employment status, industry of employment, occupation, place of birth, and place of residence for the year 5 years prior to the decennial census. We analyzed these characteristics for the years 1990 and 2000 for the sampled residents of the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA.11 Table 10 reports changes in the distribution of workers by occupation from 1990 to 2000 by place of prior residence. In 1990, 1.44% of the sampled workers lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1985, and 18.31% lived in Puerto Rico or a state other than Florida. Farming, Forestry, and Fishing occupations had the largest concentration of workers living outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1985 – 4.10%, whereas less than 1% of Protective Service workers and Business and Financial Operations workers lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1985. In 2000, 2.52% of the sampled workers lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1995, and 13.49% lived in Puerto Rico or a state other than Florida. Farming, Forestry, and Fishing occupations continued to have the largest concentration of workers living outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1995 – 14.09%, whereas less than 1% of Legal workers lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1995. 11 Census Industry and Occupation codes changed from the 1990 and 2000 censuses. To account for these changes, we utilized “crosswalks” developed by the Census Bureau available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ioindex.html

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19 Table 10 Employment by Occupation by Place of Prior Residence Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA 1990 PUMS 2000 PUMS % Change, 1990-2000 Census Occupation Group % of Sampled Workers % Lived Abroad 1985 % Lived in Puerto Rico or US, but not FL, 1985 % of Sampled Workers % Lived Abroad 1995 % Lived in Puerto Rico or US, but not FL, 1995 % Lived Abroad % Lived in Puerto Rico or US, but not FL Management 8.61% 1.25% 17.60% 9.00% 1.53% 15.03% 22.26% -14.61% Business and Financial Operations 4.07% 0.98% 17.99% 4.77% 1.71% 15.02% 74.08% -16.54% Computer and Mathematical 1.25% 1.62% 19.54% 2.46% 5.45% 20.24% 236.92%3.55% Architecture and Engineering 2.49% 1.62% 19.55% 1.66% 2.11% 11.70% 30.18% -40.17% Life, Physical, and Social Sciences 1.01% 1.60% 19.52% 0.56% 2.09% 19.51% 30.82% -0.04% Community and Social Services 1.07% 1.39% 19.20% 1.46% 3.19% 14.49% 129.32%-24.52% Legal 0.87% 1.50% 19.31% 1.22% 0.80% 10.38% -46.85% -46.21% Education, Training, and Library 4.49% 1.37% 19.06% 4.68% 2.12% 11.12% 55.03% -41.62% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1.73% 1.41% 19.19% 1.83% 2.76% 16.01% 96.07% -16.57% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 3.76% 1.53% 19.38% 5.46% 1.49% 13.27% -2.35% -31.51% Healthcare Support 1.96% 2.07% 20.61% 2.07% 1.41% 11.90% -32.23% -42.24% Protective Service 1.73% 0.90% 15.64% 1.92% 1.52% 11.31% 69.23% -27.69% Food Preparation and Serving Related 5.02% 2.07% 20.62% 5.15% 3.96% 15.95% 91.33% -22.65% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 3.73% 2.37% 18.97% 3.42% 4.55% 11.82% 92.02% -37.70% Personal Care and Service 2.34% 2.10% 19.82% 2.70% 2.08% 12.42% -0.63% -37.33% Sales and Related 15.08% 1.14% 20.51% 13.55% 1.91% 14.24% 67.48% -30.55% Office and Administrative Support 17.77% 1.16% 17.17% 17.55% 1.52% 13.30% 30.16% -22.55% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing 0.81% 4.10% 13.58% 0.56% 14.09%13.75% 243.35%1.22% Construction and Extraction 5.53% 1.29% 16.25% 5.20% 4.74% 11.58% 267.51%-28.74% Installation, Repair, and Maintenance 3.56% 1.18% 16.09% 3.90% 1.69% 11.65% 43.31% -27.56% Production 7.48% 1.79% 17.20% 5.62% 4.91% 11.23% 173.95%-34.72% Transportation and Material Moving 5.64% 1.56% 16.89% 5.28% 3.16% 13.20% 103.28%-21.84% All Occupations 100.00%1.44% 18.31% 100.00%2.52% 13.49% 75.01% -26.31% Table 11 reports changes in the distribution of workers by industry from 1990 to 2000 by place of prior residence. Because we are examining the same sample group of workers, the aggregate totals for 1990 and 2000 are identical to those displayed in the previous table. Industry division Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting had the largest concentration of workers living outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1985 – 3.53%, whereas less than 0.8% of workers in the Construction industry division

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20 lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1985. Industry division Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting continued the largest concentration of workers living outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1995 – 10.65%, whereas none of the Mining workers or Management of Companies and Enterprises workers sampled lived outside of the United States and Puerto Rico in 1995. Table 11 Employment by Industry by Place of Prior Residence Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA 1990 PUMS 2000 PUMS % Change, 1990-2000 Census Industry Division % of Sampled Workers % Lived Outside US or Puerto Rico, 1985 % Lived in US, but not FL, 1985 % of Sampled Workers % Lived Outside US or Puerto Rico, 1995 % Lived in US, but not FL, 1995 % Lived Outside US or Puerto Rico % Lived in US, but not FL Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 1.82% 3.53% 12.38% 0.75% 10.65% 8.31% 201.35%-32.88% Mining 0.23% 2.78% 8.64% 0.11% 0.00% 3.45% -100.00%-60.09% Construction 6.74% 0.79% 16.59% 6.92% 3.93% 11.97% 395.74%-27.80% Manufacturing 11.07% 1.77% 19.38% 8.29% 3.82% 13.24% 115.20%-31.69% Transportation and Warehousing 4.10% 1.57% 18.45% 3.77% 1.29% 14.81% -18.12%-19.69% Utilities 1.42% 0.87% 12.42% 0.97% 0.40% 6.57% -54.18%-47.08% Information 3.02% 1.21% 15.23% 3.81% 2.45% 16.87% 101.38%10.74% Wholesale Trade 4.84% 1.35% 16.53% 4.21% 2.40% 12.77% 77.76%-22.76% Retail Trade 14.07% 1.72% 21.26% 13.86% 2.28% 14.45% 32.79%-32.03% Finance and Insurance 6.62% 0.81% 18.69% 6.56% 1.15% 14.86% 41.74%-20.49% Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing 2.44% 0.94% 18.92% 2.46% 2.13% 13.41% 126.71%-29.13% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.59% 1.77% 19.56% 2.23% 1.83% 14.78% 3.08%-24.44% Accommodation and Food Services 7.34% 1.78% 20.92% 6.54% 4.92% 16.88% 176.88%-19.31% Health Care & Social Assistance 10.91% 1.28% 20.42% 11.92% 1.48% 12.54% 15.86%-38.59% Educational Services 6.38% 1.19% 11.90% 6.77% 1.89% 11.07% 59.66%-6.95% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 4.89% 1.18% 18.93% 6.63% 2.25% 14.75% 91.47%-22.08% Management of Companies and Enterprises 0.01% 1.09% 17.72% 0.03% 0.00% 31.25% -100.00%76.35% Administrative, Support, and Waste Management Services 3.51% 1.52% 18.48% 4.96% 2.35% 15.68% 54.64%-15.16% Other Services (Except Public Administration) 5.05% 1.51% 19.61% 4.95% 3.57% 10.86% 136.02%-44.62% Public Administration 3.96% 1.59% 13.13% 4.24% 1.19% 9.62% -25.10%-26.75% Total 100.00% 1.44% 18.31% 100.00%2.52% 13.49% 74.75%-26.31%

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21 Table 12 reports changes in the distribution of workers by occupation from 1990 to 2000 by place of birth. In 1990, 7.93% of the sampled workers had been born abroad outside the United States and its outlying areas.12 Farming, Forestry, and Fishing occupations had the largest concentration of workers born abroad. – 15.90%, whereas less than 4% of Protective Service were born abroad. By 2000, the percentage of sampled workers who had been born abroad rose to 11.69%. Farming, Forestry, and Fishing occupations continued to have the greatest percentage of workers born abroad, tripling to 48.80%, while several occupation groups, including Computer and Mathematical, Life, Physical and Social Sciences, and Community and Social Services all saw their percentages of workers born abroad increase by more than 67%. Occupations such as these may be prime candidates for offshore outsourcing, as the growth statistic indicates availability of occupational skill sets outside the U.S. Only occupation group Legal saw their percentage of workers born abroad decline from 1990 to 2000. 12 “Outlying Areas” includes Puerto Rico and protectorates such as Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands.

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22 Table 12 Employment by Occupation by Place of Birth Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA 1990 PUMS 2000 PUMS % Change, 1990-2000 Census Occupation Group % of Sampled Workers % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad % of Sampled Workers % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad Management 8.61% 92.43% 7.57% 9.00% 90.66% 9.34% -1.91%23.28% Business and Financial Operations 4.07% 93.30% 6.70% 4.77% 91.21% 8.79% -2.24%31.12% Computer and Mathematical 1.25% 92.38% 7.62% 2.46% 87.19% 12.81% -5.62%68.17% Architecture and Engineering 2.49% 92.38% 7.62% 1.66% 87.25% 12.75% -5.55%67.27% Life, Physical, and Social Sciences 1.01% 92.40% 7.60% 0.56% 85.37% 14.63% -7.61%92.49% Community and Social Services 1.07% 92.51% 7.49% 1.46% 85.51% 14.49% -7.58%93.61% Legal 0.87% 92.52% 7.48% 1.22% 95.21% 4.79% 2.91%-35.94% Education, Training, and Library 4.49% 92.64% 7.36% 4.68% 91.03% 8.97% -1.73%21.78% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1.73% 92.55% 7.45% 1.83% 89.29% 10.71% -3.53%43.83% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 3.76% 92.44% 7.56% 5.46% 86.09% 13.91% -6.87%84.03% Healthcare Support 1.96% 90.03% 9.97% 2.07% 87.91% 12.09% -2.35%21.22% Protective Service 1.73% 96.20% 3.80% 1.92% 94.75% 5.25% -1.51%38.12% Food Preparation and Serving Related 5.02% 89.88% 10.12% 5.15% 85.07% 14.93% -5.35%47.50% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 3.73% 88.74% 11.26% 3.42% 82.33% 17.67% -7.22%56.90% Personal Care and Service 2.34% 89.57% 10.43% 2.70% 87.80% 12.20% -1.98%17.05% Sales and Related 15.08% 93.13% 6.87% 13.55% 90.41% 9.59% -2.92%39.55% Office and Administrative Support 17.77% 93.73% 6.27% 17.55% 90.84% 9.16% -3.08%46.08% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing 0.81% 84.10% 15.90% 0.56% 51.20% 48.80% -39.11%206.84% Construction and Extraction 5.53% 91.64% 8.36% 5.20% 84.83% 15.17% -7.43%81.45% Installation, Repair, and Maintenance 3.56% 91.67% 8.33% 3.90% 90.24% 9.76% -1.57%17.24% Production 7.48% 88.47% 11.53% 5.62% 79.38% 20.62% -10.28%78.88% Transportation and Material Moving 5.64% 92.55% 7.45% 5.28% 88.27% 11.73% -4.62%57.41% All Occupations 100.00% 92.07% 7.93% 100.00%88.31% 11.69% -4.09%47.48%

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23 Table 13 reports changes in the distribution of workers by industry from 1990 to 2000 by place of birth. Because we are examining the same sample group of workers, the aggregate totals for 1990 and 2000 are identical to those displayed in the previous table. In 1990, industry division Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting had the largest concentration of workers born abroad. – 16.03%, whereas slightly more than 5% of workers in the Educational Services industry division were born abroad, the lowest of any industry division. In 2000, industry division Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting continued to have the greatest percentage of workers born abroad – 38.96%, while industry division Utilities had the lowest percentage – 6.18%. Industry division Mining saw triple-digit growth in their percentages of workers born abroad, albeit from a relatively low base. Overall, 18 of the 20 industry divisions experienced at least a double digit-percentage increase in their percentage of workers born abroad, suggesting increasing availability of industry skill sets outside the U.S.

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24 Table 13 Employment by Industry by Place of Birth Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA 1990 PUMS 2000 PUMS % Change, 1990-2000 Census Industry Division % of Sampled Workers % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad % of Sampled Workers % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad % Born in US, Puerto Rico, or US Outlying Area % Born Abroad Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 1.82% 83.97% 16.03% 0.75% 61.04% 38.96% -27.31%143.05% Mining 0.23% 98.00% 2.00% 0.11% 91.38% 8.62% -6.76%332.01% Construction 6.74% 93.80% 6.20% 6.92% 86.57% 13.43% -7.71%116.57% Manufacturing 11.07% 90.21% 9.79% 8.29% 82.59% 17.41% -8.44%77.76% Transportation and Warehousing 4.10% 92.18% 7.82% 3.77% 88.94% 11.06% -3.51%41.37% Utilities 1.42% 94.22% 5.78% 0.97% 93.82% 6.18% -0.42%6.91% Information 3.02% 93.22% 6.78% 3.81% 91.79% 8.21% -1.53%21.10% Wholesale Trade 4.84% 92.95% 7.05% 4.21% 88.52% 11.48% -4.77%62.90% Retail Trade 14.07% 91.28% 8.72% 13.86% 89.99% 10.01% -1.42%14.87% Finance and Insurance 6.62% 93.20% 6.80% 6.56% 91.03% 8.97% -2.33%31.88% Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing 2.44% 92.95% 7.05% 2.46% 91.01% 8.99% -2.09%27.50% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.59% 92.58% 7.42% 2.23% 91.48% 8.52% -1.19%14.83% Accommodation and Food Services 7.34% 90.83% 9.17% 6.54% 83.71% 16.29% -7.84%77.63% Health Care & Social Assistance 10.91% 91.96% 8.04% 11.92% 87.54% 12.46% -4.80%54.88% Educational Services 6.38% 94.92% 5.08% 6.77% 90.91% 9.09% -4.22%78.91% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 4.89% 92.66% 7.34% 6.63% 90.81% 9.19% -2.00%25.18% Management of Companies and Enterprises 0.01% 93.79% 6.21% 0.03% 93.75% 6.25% -0.05%0.69% Administrative, Support, and Waste Management Services 3.51% 91.04% 8.96% 4.96% 88.93% 11.07% -2.32%23.53% Other Services (Except Public Administration) 5.05% 90.98% 9.02% 4.95% 85.61% 14.39% -5.91%59.62% Public Administration 3.96% 94.62% 5.38% 4.24% 92.44% 7.56% -2.31%40.61% Total 100.00% 92.07% 7.93% 100.00%88.31% 11.69% -4.09%47.48%

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25 Section 4: Changes in Economic Structure: International Trade In this section, we examine the potential role of international trade on employment patterns in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA. We estimate employment of MSA workers by foreign firms, we estimate employment of foreigners by local firms, and we examine trends in the import of “Other Private Services,” a section of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). First, we attempt to assess changes in the ownership of the corporate structure by measuring, over time, the share of employment due to foreign corporations within a geographic region.13 The data sources combining to produce this information are the Foreign Direct Investment in the United States (FDIUS) statistics reported by the BEA for years 1993-2001 and data from Enterprise Florida. The latter keeps an inventory available from its website of foreign affiliated companies conducting business in Florida.14 To estimate employment by foreign firms in the MSA for years 1993-2001, we first acquired, from the Enterprise Florida website, a list of foreign affiliated companies conducting business in the MSA. We searched the 4th Quarter, 2001 Enhanced Quarterly Unemployment Insurance (EQUI) database to determine the employment levels for these companies. Enterprise Florida identified 125 companies conducting business in the MSA, and we were able to find employment records for 75 of these. From the BEA, we obtained estimates of domestic employment for affiliates of foreign enterprises located in Florida for the years 1993-2001. We applied the employment findings from the previous step to the 2001 estimate to produce a ratio of MSA employment due to foreign direct investment (FDI) to state employment due to FDI. For 2001, we calculated a ratio of 1:24.75, that is, for every 25 employed persons in the state due to FDI, one employee is located in the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSA. Because the Enterprise Florida list is not exhaustive, this ratio can be viewed as biased upward. We applied the ratio to each of the annual estimates of Florida employment due to FDI to estimate the annual level of MSA employment due to FDI. We then calculated the share of annual total MSA employment due to MSA FDI employment. 13 The Florida Department of State, Division of Corporations, maintains a database of registered corporations. One field in the database, “State or Country of Origin,” indicates the jurisdiction in which the corporation was initially created, but does not provide insight into the current ownership of corporations. Thus, we have estimated employment by foreign corporations through national statistics on Foreign Direct Investment, defined by the U.S. BEA as “ownership or control, directly or indirectly, by one foreign person of 10 percent or more of the voting securities of an incorporated U.S. business enterprise or an equivalent interest in an unincorporated U.S. business enterprise.” 14 The database can be accessed at http://www.eflorida.com/infocenter/fdi/fdi.asp?level1=25&level2=119

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26 Table 14 reports the annual estimates of Florida FDI employment, MSA FDI employment, total MSA employment and the share (expressed as a percentage) of total MSA employment composed of MSA FDI employment. Table 14 Estimated Employment Due to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 1993-2001 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 FL FDI Employment1 203,800 201,000 210,000 239,800 242,300 263,200 286,500 312,100 303,300 Estimated MSA FDI Employment2 8,234 8,121 8,485 9,689 9,790 10,634 11,576 12,610 12 ,254 MSA Total Employment3 961,600 1,003,206 1,044,437 1,098,688 1,142,171 1,205,422 1,263,840 1,303,820 1,340,264 % of Total MSA Employment 0.8563% 0.8095%0.8124%0.8818%0.8571%0.8822% 0.9159%0.9671%0.9143% Sources 1 Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 2001 Employment EQUI, Enterprise Florida. Other years estimated by CEDR interpolation 3 REMI Policy InsightTM Estimated MSA FDI employment grew by 48.8% between 1993 and 2001, adding 4,020 employees during this time. During the same time period, MSA employment grew by 39.3%, adding more than 378,000 employees. Therefore, estimated MSA FDI employment grew relative to overall MSA employment, from .8563% of employment in 1993 to .9143% of employment in 2001. This finding suggests that the MSA has benefited from the offshore outsourcing of foreign enterprises. In addition to the FDIUS statistics, the BEA also reports annual estimates of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad (USDIA). Analogous to FDIUS, USDIA is a measure of the foreign operations of U.S. businesses. USDIA employment represents workers outside the U.S. financed by U.S. businesses. Table 15 reports, for years 1992 through 2002, employment related to USDIA as well as the ratio of USDIA employment to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Table 15 U.S. GDP and USDIA Employment, 1992-2002 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 GDP1 7,336.6 7,532.7 7,835.5 8,031.7 8,328.9 8,703.5 9,066.9 9,470.3 9,817.0 9,866.6 10,083.0 USDIA Employment2 6,660.1 6,684.6 7,104.6 7,344.9 7,544.1 7,972.5 8,183.8 9,220.2 9,713.0 9,803.6 9,695.9 USDIA Employment/GDP 0.9078 0.8874 0.9067 0.9145 0.9058 0.9160 0.9026 0.9736 0.9894 0.9936 0.9616 1 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars 2 Thousands of Employees

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27 USDIA employment increased rather steadily during the period, from 6.6 million workers in 1992 to 9.6 million workers in 2002, peaking in 2001 at 9.8 million workers. As a proportion of GDP, employees per $1M of GDP rose from .9078 in 1992 to .9616 in 2002. This proportion rose and fell during the period of interest, reflecting the greater volatility of USDIA employment growth relative to GDP growth. Chart 1 displays the year-to-year levels of U.S. GDP and USDIA Employment. Chart 1: USDIA Employment and US GDP, 1992-20026,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP (Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars) USDIA Employment (Thousands of Jobs) We obtained estimates of the MSA’s Gross Regional Product (GRP) from the REMI model. Assuming that (1), the level of direct investment abroad as a share of production is similar between the region and the nation, and that (2), the ratio of foreign employment due to regional direct investment abroad to GRP equals that of foreign employment due to USDIA to GDP, we apply the findings from Table 15, above, to the estimates of GRP to approximate the level of foreign employment due to regional investment abroad. Table 16 shows, for years 1992-2002, estimates of GRP, foreign employment supported by regional direct investment abroad, the previously displayed MSA FDI employment levels, and for years 1993-2001 the net effect of international investment patterns on employment in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA.

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28 Table 16 Estimated Effects of International Trade on MSA Employment, 1992-2002 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Gross Regional Product1 58.4781 60.3575 63.1837 64.8051 67.9002 72.2740 77.4370 82.0841 86.3972 88.9445 90.9804 Employment/Product ($M) 0.9078 0.8874 0.9067 0.9145 0.9058 0.9160 0.9026 0.9736 0.9894 0 .9936 0.9616 Foreign Employment Supported by GRP 53,086 53,562 57,290 59,264 61,502 66,204 69,895 79,916 85,482 88,376 87,487 MSA FDI Employment N/A 8,234 8,121 8,485 9,689 9,790 10,634 11,576 12,610 12,254 N/A MSA FDI Employment less Foreign Employment Supported by GRP N/A (45,328) (49,169) (50,779) (51,813) (56,414) (59,261) (68,341) (72,872) (76,122) N/A 1 (Bil Chained 00$) Source, REMI Policy Insight TM GRP rose in real terms from $58.47 billion to $90.98 billion between 1992 and 2002, a 55.6% increase. The estimated foreign employment – assuming similar patterns of direct investment abroad and production between the region and the nation as a whole – associated with GRP increased from 53,086 in 1992 to 87,487 in 2002, a 64.8% change. Therefore, regional outsourcing, measured by foreign employment, has grown faster than the regional economy (as measured by GRP) as a whole. For each of the years displayed our estimate is that foreign employment due to regional investment abroad exceeded regional employment due to foreign direct investment in the region. We approximate that in 2001, the net effect of this phenomenon was 76,000 workers. The 76,000 workers represent 6.61% of payroll employment and 5.08% of the total employment (including the self-employed) during that year. While USDIA employment estimates the number of foreign-located workers employed by US affiliates, another form of offshore outsourcing involves the import of services from foreign firms. Technological innovations – increased Internet bandwidth and global Internet connectivity – have contributed to the growing feasibility of importation of business services, classified by the BEA as “Other Private Services.”15 Charts 2 through 4 display trends in Other Private Services imports for years 1992 through 2003. 15 See http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/GDP_outsourcing.pdf for information on outsourcing and the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Worthy of note, the offshore outsourcing of white-collar jobs composes only a portion, and not all, of the activities classified as “Other Private Services.”

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29 Chart 2 Imports of Other Private Services 1992-20030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Source: U.S. BEA National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)Billions of Chained (200) Dollar s Chart 3 U.S. Imports of Other Private Services as a Percentage of all U.S. Service Imports 1992-20030.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Source: U.S. BEA National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)

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30 Chart 4 U.S. Imports of Other Private Services as a Percentage of all U.S. Imports 1992-20030.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Source: U.S. BEA National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) We find that national imports of Other Private Services grew steadily in real terms from $26.1B in 1992 to $82.1B in 1993. As a proportion of all U.S. Service imports during this time, Other Private Services accounted for roughly 1/5th of all service imports in 1992 to over 1/3rd in 2003. In terms of all imports, Other Private Services accounted for just over 4% of the 1992 total. In 2003, Other Private Services accounted for just over 5.3% of the 2003 total. If these are stable trends, the finding suggests that offshore outsourcing – as defined by the importation of Other Private Services – will continue to increase relative to other types of imports.

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31 Section 5: Summary of Findings In each year, 2001, 2002 and 2003, overall employment in the MSA slightly declined.16 Consistent with the possibility of outsourcing, employment in the Manufacturing sector and in the Information sector was down. On the other hand, employment in the Finance and Insurance sector, with which some call centers are associated, increased. In 2001 employment, as a percentage of total employment in the MSA, in the Manufacturing, Information, and Finance and Insurance sectors, was 6.86%, 3.27% and 6.02%, respectively. By 2003, the percentages were 6.23%, 3.01% and 6.24%, respectively. Since 1997 there has been over one million people working in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA each year and that number has grown steadily through 2001. Between 1988 and 2001, employment in the MSA increased on average 2.66% about 25,000 employees each year with a low standard deviation of 1.90%, which indicates a stable employment structure. Manufacturing was the only industry division to experience a decline in employment over the period. In 1988, Manufacturing represented about 11.43% of total employment and by 2001 this percentage had fallen to 7.85% of total employment. Meanwhile, Services, which is the largest division of employment, had risen from 33.16% to 43.61% of total employment. Furthermore, between 1988 and 2001 the number of establishments in the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA has increased from approximately 46,000 to 61,000, an average annual gain of 2.19%. The standard deviation of this annual percentage gain was 1.08%, indicating steady but stable growth. This addition of over 1,100 establishments, on average per year, is a notable source of job growth and employment in the region. Because a significant shift in the divisional allocations of employment or establishments is indicative of a major change in a region’s economic structure, and consistent with large-scale outsourcing, we tested the data for evidence of structural change. The finding for 2002 and 2003 is consistent with a shift in the employment structure and recent job dislocations in the MSA. And, although not conclusive, the data is also consistent with a finding that the MSA is recently undergoing a major shift in the allocation of the number of establishments within its industrial sectors. Over the period 1993 to 2004, the fastest growing employment category by demand source was Exports to the Rest of the Nation, which grew at an average annual rate of 6%. Employment for Investment Activity also experienced relatively rapid growth at slightly below 6% over the same period. The slowest growing employment category by demand source from 1993 to 2004 was Exports to the Rest of the World for which employment increased at an average annual rate of only 1%. We also analyze detailed information for each demand source by subdividing the descriptive statistics by industry division and form quadrant correlations. From the quadrant correlations, we find evidence consistent with long-term structural change of increasing employment to fulfill demand for local consumption and demand by government for goods and services. 16 This decline in MSA employment was coincident with the national trend, for which the BLS reports total U.S. employment of 129.6 million in 2001, 128.2 million in 2002, and 127.8 million in 2003.

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32 The most prevalent occupational category in the MSA is Sales and Sales-related Office and Administrative work. In 2004, this category comprised 30.5% of total employment. From 1993 to 2004, Sales and Sales-related Office and Administrative employment increased by 33.3%, which is roughly in line with the total increase in employment of 35.6%. However, the greatest increase in employment in the MSA in an occupational category was experienced by the Computer and Mathematical occupations, which grew by 169.3%. Still, in 2004 the Computer and Mathematical occupations represented only 3.8% of the area’s total employment. In 2004, the MSA’s labor force totaled nearly 1.3 million residents resulting in a participation rate of 78.2% of the prime working-age population, ages 15 to 64. Since 1993, the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA labor force has grown by 27.5%. We also investigated changes in the composition of the labor force, with respect to prior residence and place of birth, in the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA between 1990 and 2000. The sources of this labor force data are the Census Bureau’s 5– Percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) databases for the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses. In 1990, 7.93% of the sampled workers had been born abroad outside the United States and its outlying areas. By 2000, the percentage of sampled workers who had been born abroad rose to 11.69%. Several occupational groups, including Computer and Mathematical, Life, Physical and Social Sciences, and Community and Social Services saw their percentages of workers born abroad increase by more than 67%. Occupations such as these may be prime candidates for offshore outsourcing, as the growth statistic indicates availability of occupational skill sets outside the U.S. Lastly, we examined the international trade data in relation to employment patterns in the MSA. We estimate that employment due to foreign direct investment (FDI) in the MSA grew by nearly 50% between 1993 and 2001, resulting in approximately 12,250 more workers in 2001 (latest data available). Furthermore, from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, we obtained the national level of U.S. Direct Invest Abroad (USDIA) for 1992 through 2002. We then calculated USDIA employment – workers outside the U.S. financed by U.S. businesses – by assuming the national USDIA employment per Gross Domestic Product is the same as the USDIA employment per Gross Regional Product for the MSA. Foreign employment due to regional investment abroad exceeded regional employment due to foreign direct investment in the MSA. We approximate that in 2001, the net effect of this phenomenon was 76,000 workers. While USDIA employment estimates the number of foreign-located workers employed by US affiliates, another form of offshore outsourcing involves the import of services from foreign firms. Technological innovations – increased Internet bandwidth and global Internet connectivity – have contributed to the growing feasibility of importation of business services, classified by the BEA as “Other Private Services.” As a percentage of all imports, the import of Other Private Services (the category in which so-

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33 called white collar outsourcing would be documented) has steadily increased over the past decade or so, providing empirical support for what have been mostly anecdotal reports of offshore outsourcing. Through an examination of the baseline structure of the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA’s economy, we find evidence that the area’s economy has undergone structural shifts – primarily a shift from Manufacturing to Services – that is consistent with an “offshore outsourcing” hypothesis. However, we also determined that primary data to test the “offshore outsourcing” hypothesis applied to the MSA is lacking. However, using secondary data, we were able to estimate employment supported by FDI and USDIA. This in turn leads us to believe that future research into the “offshore outsourcing” hypothesis can appropriately be framed as an international investment and trade question.

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34 Appendix A: Baseline Analysis of Telemarketing Employment and Wages in Tampa Bay, 2002 Note – This research, intended for future publication in The Tampa Bay Economy CEDR’s journal of economic development research, was motivated by the passage and adoption of the National Do Not Call Registry. However, because telemarketing jobs are often cited as prime candidates for offshoring, we present as excerpts from the larger article characteristics of the telemarketing industry for perspective. The author is David Sobush, Research Associate at CEDR. Introduction The purpose of this article is to present employment, wage, and establishment data for the telemarketing industry (NAICS code 561422) in Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, and Polk Counties, and also for the 7-county Tampa Bay Region (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota). This article also explores the possible ramifications of the National Do Not Call Registry, which went into effect October 1, 2003, prohibiting telemarketers’ sales pitches. Description of Industry Telemarketing bureaus provide “telemarketing services on a contract or fee basis for others.” These services typically fall into one of the following categories: Promotion of clients’ products or services by telephone Taking orders by telephone for clients products and services Providing information or soliciting contributions for clients by telephone Economists and other researchers examining employment and wage trends typically utilize the Covered Employment and Wages (ES-202) unemployment insurance database, which contains employment and wage data by industry. The telemarketing industries in Hernando, Manatee, and Sarasota counties are not of a sufficient size to permit disclosure and therefore cannot be reported by county. However, we can present the Tampa Bay regional aggregate by using the Enhanced Quarterly Unemployment Insurance (EQUI) database, which presents employment, wage, and industry classification by establishment. Telemarketing Establishments A total of 98 establishments in Tampa Bay are telemarketing bureaus. Among the reportable counties, Polk County had the fewest establishments (10) and Pinellas County was home to the greatest number of establishments (37). Table 1 presents the number of telemarketing establishments in each of the reportable areas of Tampa Bay for the first quarter of 2002.

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35 Table 1: Telemarketing Establishments Location Establishments Hillsborough 14 Pasco 15 Pinellas 37 Polk 10 Tampa Bay# 98 #7-County Aggregate Employment Telemarketing employment in the seven-county Tampa Bay region averaged 24,590 during the first quarter of 2002. Of the reportable areas, Hillsborough County had the lowest mean employment, 804 persons. The three remaining reportable counties all had average telemarketing employment greater than 3,200 persons. Pinellas County had the highest average telemarketing employment – 3,970 persons. Table 2 presents the mean employment of telemarketing establishments in each of the reportable areas of Tampa Bay for the first quarter of 2002. Table 2: Telemarketing Employment Location Mean Employment Hillsborough 804 Pasco 3,307 Pinellas 3,970 Polk 3,222 Tampa Bay# 24,590 #7-County Aggregate Wages Persons employed by Tampa Bay area telemarketers earned an average weekly wage of $471 during the first quarter of 2002. Of the four reportable counties, Pascobased workers earned the lowest weekly wages $215 and telemarketing employees in Polk County earned an average weekly wage of $958, more than double the seven-county weighted average. The relatively high wages paid in Polk County were attributable to the nature of the telemarketing jobs commission-based real estate sales. Table 3 presents the mean weekly wages of telemarketing employees in each of the reportable areas of Tampa Bay for the first quarter of 2002.

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36 Table 3: Telemarketing Wages Location Mean Weekly Wage* Hillsborough $ 316 Pasco $ 215 Pinellas $ 370 Polk $ 958 Tampa Bay# $ 471 *Weighted Average #7-County Aggregate Effects of Do Not Call Legislation On March 11, 2003, President George W. Bush authorized the creation of the National Do Not Call (DNC) Registry. The registry, managed by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) was created to “offer consumers a choice regarding telemarketing calls.” The legislation allows consumers to submit their phone numbers to a national database. Beginning October 1, 2003, telemarketers faced fines of $11,000 for each call made to numbers registered before August 31 of that same year. Telemarketers were able to phone numbers registered after that date for three months without penalty. Implementation of the Do Not Call registry, if enforced as written, almost certainly resulted in layoffs of telemarketers. An industry advocacy group, American Teleservices Association, predicted a reduction of 2 million jobs, although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics accounted for only slightly more than 338,000 telemarketing employees in 2001. In any event, these workers, once displaced, either had to find alternate employment or exit the labor force if there were to be no change in the unemployment rate. What occupations are most likely to absorb job seekers with the skill set of telemarketers? According to the Occupational Information Network, the occupations most similar to telemarketing are: retail salesperson, advertising sales agent, insurance sales agent, manufacturing/technical/scientific equipment sales representative, and driver/sales worker. These occupations were identified as similar by comparison of certain occupation-related criteria. For a more rigorous discussion of the methodology utilized to identify occupational similarity, please refer to Occupational Information Network. O*Net Consortium – Content Model Available at http://www.onetcenter.org. Table 4 displays, for each of the reportable areas of Tampa Bay, occupations similar to telemarketers, and the corresponding employment and wage characteristics for the first quarter of 2002.

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37 Table 4: Occupations Similar to Telemarketers Employment Mean Weekly Wage Lakeland Winter Haven, FL MSA Retail Salespersons 6,150 $375 Advertising Sales Agents 110 $621 Insurance Sales Agents 730 $706 Equipment Sales Representatives 270 $938 Driver/Sales Workers 610 $360 Weighted Average Wage for Alternative Occupations to Telemarketing $433 Sarasota – Bradenton Venice, FL MSA Retail Salespersons 9,720 $406 Advertising Sales Agents 230 $781 Insurance Sales Agents 290 $1,054 Equipment Sales Representatives 500 $856 Driver/Sales Workers 550 $401 Weighted Average Wage for Alternative Occupations to Telemarketing $452 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSA Retail Salespersons 33,060 $403 Advertising Sales Agents 1,710 $756 Insurance Sales Agents 3,790 $850 Equipment Sales Representatives 3,740 $1,218 Driver/Sales Workers 5,040 $348 Weighted Average Wage for Alternative Occupations to Telemarketing $529 Tampa Bay* Retail Salespersons 48,930 $400 Advertising Sales Agents 2,050 $751 Insurance Sales Agents 4,810 $840 Equipment Sales Representatives 4,510 $1,161 Driver/Sales Workers 6,200 $354 Weighted Average Wage for Alternative Occupations to Telemarketing $490 Wage estimates are weighted averages

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38 Appendix B – Test for Long-term Structural Changes in Employment by Demand Source In Table B1 we include a breakdown of employment data by industry division for each demand source. Then we test the detailed employment data by demand source for evidence of structural changes. The idea here is that structural change may require a long period of time to occur and detect. So in Table B2 we report the growth rates of employment by industry division for each demand source. Following Groshen and Potter, we divide our time period into two segments.17 The segments are from 1993 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004.18 We compare the growth rates by industry division by demand source in a time segment with the growth rate in employment for the entire regional economy. In Table B2 we label the growth rate for the entire regional economy the “Average.” The proportion of growth rates greater than Average and less than Average determine the Quadrant Correlations. Largely varying Quadrant Correlations from one time segment to another are evidence of a potential structural change. By interpreting the Quadrant Correlations, we find evidence of long-term structural change of increasing employment to fulfill demand for local consumption and demand by government for goods and services. Employment to fulfill demand from other sources exhibits long-term stability. Table B1 Employment by Demand Source Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Panel B.1.1 Employment (units) Intermediate Demand Sources 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 8,411 8,688 8,763 9,013 8,731 8,870 9,180 9,279 9,761 9,070 8,743 8,630 Non-Durables Manuf. 13,380 13,398 13,405 13,46813,89314,44714,07713,87213,937 13,494 13,353 13,298 Mining 39 39 36 34 42 43 55 55 54 53 52 53 Construction 7,806 8,215 7,569 8,187 7,784 7,866 8,937 9,991 10,022 9,979 9,625 9,526 Trans. & Public Util. 11,859 12,046 12,186 12,72813,50614,26315,39715,61415,639 15,244 15,074 15,011 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 24,639 26,116 27,163 30,05431,43835,58838,97941,09740,905 40,222 39,608 39,654 Retail Trade 20,542 20,168 19,725 18,08015,94911,84112,55211,02811,939 11,835 12,127 12,473 Wholesale Trade 16,157 16,444 17,607 17,50917,57218,63518,82218,43718,547 16,914 16,126 15,368 Services 92,236 95,941 102,603 110,391116,300122,476129,335133,166136,427135,313 134,957 137,000 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 7,171 7,391 7,495 8,112 8,224 8,665 9,599 10,58311,534 11,602 11,707 11,855 17 Groshen, Erica and Simon Potter, “Has Structural Change Contributed to a Jobless Recovery?,” Current Issues in Economics and Finance Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Vol. 9, No.8, August 2003. 18 Recognizing that the employment data include REMI forecasts for the years 2001, 2002 and 2003, we also examine time segments from 1993 to 1996 and 1997 to 2000, thereby excluding the forecast years. Because of the recession which began in March 2001 and the ensuing drop off in employment, the analytical findings are quite different from the findings when the forecast years are considered. However, we believe the REMI forecasts correctly reflect the recession and we base our principal analysis on the data that includes the forecast years.

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39 Panel B.1.2 Employment (% change) Intermediate Demand Sources 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 3.3% 0.9% 2.9% -3.1% 1.6% 3.5% 1.1% 5.2% -7.1% -3.6% -1.3% 0.3% 3.7% Non-Durables Manuf. 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.2% 4.0% -2.6% -1.5% 0.5% -3.2% -1.0% -0.4% 0.0% 2.2% Mining 0.0% -7.7% -5.6% 23.5%2.4% 27.9%0.0% -1.8% -1.9% -1.9% 1.9% 3.4% 11.5% Construction 5.2% -7.9% 8.2% -4.9% 1.1% 13.6%11.8%0.3% -0.4% -3.5% -1.0% 2.0% 6.9% Trans. & Public Util. 1.6% 1.2% 4.4% 6.1% 5.6% 8.0% 1.4% 0.2% -2.5% -1.1% -0.4% 2.2% 3.3% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 6.0% 4.0% 10.6%4.6% 13.2%9.5% 5.4% -0.5% -1.7% -1.5% 0.1% 4.5% 5.1% Retail Trade -1.8% -2.2% -8.3% -11.8%-25.8%6.0% -12.1%8.3% -0.9% 2.5% 2.9% -3.9% 9.9% Wholesale Trade 1.8% 7.1% -0.6% 0.4% 6.0% 1.0% -2.0% 0.6% -8.8% -4.7% -4.7% -0.4% 4.6% Services 4.0% 6.9% 7.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.6% 3.0% 2.4% -0.8% -0.3% 1.5% 3.7% 2.8% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 3.1% 1.4% 8.2% 1.4% 5.4% 10.8%10.3%9.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 4.7% 4.1% Panel B.1.3 Employment (units) Local Consumption 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 2,108 2,138 2,195 2,352 2,354 2,428 2,489 2,476 2,728 2,741 2,772 2,817 Non-Durables Manuf. 6,435 6,379 6,485 6,448 6,474 6,671 6,777 7,237 7,567 7,574 7,707 7,646 Mining 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Construction 2 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 96 190 277 368 Trans. & Public Util. 7,384 7,589 7,958 8,262 8,619 8,815 9,309 9,851 10,179 10,064 10,032 10,101 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 35,108 35,956 36,800 37,75439,86242,51043,29244,26845,405 44,965 44,518 44,743 Retail Trade 157,618 161,883 172,396 180,247183,414188,299191,280194,258204,562200,140 200,280 198,417 Wholesale Trade 11,763 11,804 12,349 12,95813,37313,57414,06314,97215,998 15,399 15,206 14,779 Services 174,503 177,296 185,347 192,276197,232204,253207,902213,280221,058221,065 220,184 221,593 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 2,463 2,662 2,812 2,868 3,228 3,299 3,383 3,571 4,049 4,181 4,301 4,477 Panel B.1.4 Employment (% change) Local Consumption 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 1.4% 2.7% 7.2% 0.1% 3.1% 2.5% -0.5% 10.2% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.7% 3.2% Non-Durables Manuf. -0.9% 1.7% -0.6% 0.4% 3.0% 1.6% 6.8% 4.6% 0.1% 1.8% -0.8% 1.6% 2.4% Mining 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction 0.0% 50.0% 33.3%50.0%16.7%14.3%0.0% 1100.0%97.9% 45.8% 32.9%131.0%322.6% Trans. & Public Util. 2.8% 4.9% 3.8% 4.3% 2.3% 5.6% 5.8% 3.3% -1.1% -0.3% 0.7% 2.9% 2.3% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 5.6% 6.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% -1.0% -1.0% 0.5% 2.3% 2.3% Retail Trade 2.7% 6.5% 4.6% 1.8% 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 5.3% -2.2% 0.1% -0.9% 2.1% 2.6% Wholesale Trade 0.3% 4.6% 4.9% 3.2% 1.5% 3.6% 6.5% 6.9% -3.7% -1.3% -2.8% 2.2% 3.6% Services 1.6% 4.5% 3.7% 2.6% 3.6% 1.8% 2.6% 3.6% 0.0% -0.4% 0.6% 2.2% 1.6% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 8.1% 5.6% 2.0% 12.6%2.2% 2.5% 5.6% 13.4% 3.3% 2.9% 4.1% 5.7% 4.1%

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40 Panel B.1.5 Employment (units) Government Demand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 810 671 656 646 621 589 600 569 631 633 646 635 Non-Durables Manuf. 682 714 723 711 707 692 701 713 793 802 812 800 Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 10,861 11,270 12,429 12,34113,56013,44013,99814,39816,139 16,745 16,506 16,261 Trans. & Public Util. 1,039 1,066 1,107 1,116 1,137 1,116 1,173 1,239 1,310 1,314 1,311 1,272 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 944 1,056 1,072 1,121 1,078 1,111 1,122 1,137 1,217 1,219 1,204 1,162 Retail Trade 113 146 77 147 181 319 288 295 370 424 500 543 Wholesale Trade 1,071 1,077 1,102 1,135 1,179 1,150 1,166 1,189 1,340 1,326 1,346 1,311 Services 1,433 2,153 2,522 1,984 847 523 223 159 1,109 1,198 763 468 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 53 85 86 76 67 83 95 97 136 146 138 139 Panel B.1.6 Employment (% change) Government Demand 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. -17.2% -2.2% -1.5% -3.9% -5.2% 1.9% -5.2% 10.9% 0.3% 2.1% -1.7% -2.0% 6.8% Non-Durables Manuf. 4.7% 1.3% -1.7% -0.6% -2.1% 1.3% 1.7% 11.2% 1.1% 1.2% -1.5% 1.5% 3.8% Mining 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction 3.8% 10.3% -0.7% 9.9% -0.9% 4.2% 2.9% 12.1% 3.8% -1.4% -1.5% 3.8% 5.0% Trans. & Public Util. 2.6% 3.8% 0.8% 1.9% -1.8% 5.1% 5.6% 5.7% 0.3% -0.2% -3.0% 1.9% 3.0% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 11.9% 1.5% 4.6% -3.8% 3.1% 1.0% 1.3% 7.0% 0.2% -1.2% -3.5% 2.0% 4.6% Retail Trade 29.2% -47.3% 90.9%23.1%76.2%-9.7% 2.4% 25.4% 14.6% 17.9% 8.6% 21.0% 37.7% Wholesale Trade 0.6% 2.3% 3.0% 3.9% -2.5% 1.4% 2.0% 12.7% -1.0% 1.5% -2.6% 1.9% 4.1% Services 50.2% 17.1% -21.3%-57.3%-38.3%-57.4%-28.7%597.5%8.0% -36.3% -38.7%35.9% 189.2% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 60.4% 1.2% -11.6%-11.8%23.9%14.5%2.1% 40.2% 7.4% -5.5% 0.7% 11.0% 22.5% Panel B.1.7 Employment (units) Investment Activity 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 3,031 3,133 2,923 2,974 2,870 3,027 3,040 3,078 3,322 3,077 2,936 3,038 Non-Durables Manuf. 128 254 157 159 250 307 214 264 -73 138 178 328 Mining 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 8 10 8 7 7 Construction 31,117 33,132 34,450 36,73039,21543,04243,72445,12851,251 47,348 44,324 42,642 Trans. & Public Util. 332 368 392 435 484 518 589 641 728 685 678 691 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 816 824 817 911 1,050 1,258 1,299 1,295 1,363 1,351 1,345 1,304 Retail Trade 4,393 6,569 5,498 5,881 7,308 8,183 6,622 6,710 2,919 5,332 5,809 7,618 Wholesale Trade 1,277 2,024 1,856 2,122 2,829 3,202 3,035 3,628 3,097 3,598 3,781 4,350 Services 8,891 9,792 10,505 12,09814,82517,49020,69624,48529,021 28,420 29,051 31,002 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 23 26 27 32 35 37 42 47 58 58 61 67

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41 Panel B.1.8 Employment (% change) Investment Activity 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 3.4% -6.7% 1.7% -3.5% 5.5% 0.4% 1.3% 7.9% -7.4% -4.6% 3.5% 0.1% 5.0% Non-Durables Manuf. 98.4% -38.2% 1.3% 57.2%22.8%-30.3%23.4%-127.7% 289.0% 29.0% 84.3%-15.3%110.3% Mining 0.0% -14.3% 0.0% 33.3%-12.5%0.0% 14.3%25.0% -20.0% -12.5% 0.0% 1.2% 16.9% Construction 6.5% 4.0% 6.6% 6.8% 9.8% 1.6% 3.2% 13.6% -7.6% -6.4% -3.8% 3.1% 6.7% Trans. & Public Util. 10.8% 6.5% 11.0%11.3%7.0% 13.7%8.8% 13.6% -5.9% -1.0% 1.9% 7.1% 6.3% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 1.0% -0.8% 11.5%15.3%19.8%3.3% -0.3% 5.3% -0.9% -0.4% -3.0% 4.6% 7.6% Retail Trade 49.5% -16.3% 7.0% 24.3%12.0%-19.1%1.3% -56.5%82.7% 8.9% 31.1%11.4% 36.8% Wholesale Trade 58.5% -8.3% 14.3%33.3%13.2%-5.2% 19.5%-14.6%16.2% 5.1% 15.0%13.4% 20.4% Services 10.1% 7.3% 15.2%22.5%18.0%18.3%18.3%18.5% -2.1% 2.2% 6.7% 12.3% 7.9% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 13.0% 3.8% 18.5%9.4% 5.7% 13.5%11.9%23.4% 0.0% 5.2% 9.8% 10.4% 6.8% Panel B.1.9 Employment (units) Exports to Rest of Florida 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 10,855 10,976 10,795 11,06810,73910,82511,14611,13411,206 10,715 10,557 10,594 Non-Durables Manuf. 10,012 9,733 9,467 9,115 9,456 9,966 9,746 9,780 9,989 9,997 10,118 10,130 Mining 131 132 128 124 141 136 146 148 141 132 127 126 Construction 4,132 4,240 4,371 4,758 5,251 5,574 5,714 5,907 6,246 6,078 5,835 5,698 Trans. & Public Util. 10,805 11,057 11,252 11,77712,34013,01313,91814,38514,723 14,552 14,496 14,522 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 17,180 18,009 18,131 19,15021,26124,74326,07625,99826,339 26,207 26,004 26,130 Retail Trade 14,932 16,621 16,800 18,49414,82315,29915,21814,84015,229 15,100 15,126 15,113 Wholesale Trade 12,385 12,548 12,852 12,30912,87512,91612,67713,10413,293 12,759 12,533 12,296 Services 54,905 55,819 55,852 65,68867,85169,68370,98176,54478,640 78,919 79,536 81,431 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 735 738 764 805 784 852 944 1,022 1,121 1,138 1,154 1,176 Panel B.1.10 Employment (% change) Exports to Rest of Florida 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 1.1% -1.6% 2.5% -3.0% 0.8% 3.0% -0.1% 0.6% -4.4% -1.5% 0.4% -0.2% 2.2% Non-Durables Manuf. -2.8% -2.7% -3.7% 3.7% 5.4% -2.2% 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% Mining 0.8% -3.0% -3.1% 13.7%-3.5% 7.4% 1.4% -4.7% -6.4% -3.8% -0.8% -0.2% 5.9% Construction 2.6% 3.1% 8.9% 10.4%6.2% 2.5% 3.4% 5.7% -2.7% -4.0% -2.3% 3.1% 4.7% Trans. & Public Util. 2.3% 1.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5.5% 7.0% 3.4% 2.3% -1.2% -0.4% 0.2% 2.8% 2.6% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 4.8% 0.7% 5.6% 11.0%16.4%5.4% -0.3% 1.3% -0.5% -0.8% 0.5% 4.0% 5.5% Retail Trade 11.3% 1.1% 10.1%-19.8%3.2% -0.5% -2.5% 2.6% -0.8% 0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 8.0% Wholesale Trade 1.3% 2.4% -4.2% 4.6% 0.3% -1.9% 3.4% 1.4% -4.0% -1.8% -1.9% 0.0% 2.9% Services 1.7% 0.1% 17.6%3.3% 2.7% 1.9% 7.8% 2.7% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 3.8% 5.0% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 0.4% 3.5% 5.4% -2.6% 8.7% 10.8%8.3% 9.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 4.4% 4.4%

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42 Panel B.1.11 Employment (units) Exports to Rest of Nation 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 16,872 16,956 16,731 16,84516,43716,47717,30417,80116,543 15,829 15,750 16,088 Non-Durables Manuf. 6,329 6,047 5,666 5,333 5,610 5,908 5,782 5,818 5,692 5,716 5,807 5,833 Mining 859 900 897 829 830 811 840 839 745 703 684 677 Construction 2,995 2,516 2,781 3,354 3,270 3,451 3,381 3,504 3,507 3,411 3,314 3,258 Trans. & Public Util. 11,613 12,107 12,490 13,05913,37913,81015,43016,23116,206 15,962 15,950 15,971 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 13,222 14,331 12,266 12,38613,82016,93718,15218,44018,475 18,402 18,355 18,456 Retail Trade 8,298 8,728 4,758 8,355 3,646 5,290 6,296 8,161 8,300 8,252 8,348 8,369 Wholesale Trade 8,479 9,469 9,834 10,10410,65710,43510,08910,79710,491 9,976 9,810 9,663 Services 57,171 69,773 83,610 84,75898,358117,625144,369148,753149,549150,017 153,272 159,191 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 3,934 4,311 4,329 5,064 4,807 4,079 3,814 3,696 3,979 4,048 4,127 4,227 Panel B.1.12 Employment (% change) Exports to Rest of Nation 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 0.5% -1.3% 0.7% -2.4% 0.2% 5.0% 2.9% -7.1% -4.3% -0.5% 2.1% -0.4% 3.4% Non-Durables Manuf. -4.5% -6.3% -5.9% 5.2% 5.3% -2.1% 0.6% -2.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% -0.7% 4.0% Mining 4.8% -0.3% -7.6% 0.1% -2.3% 3.6% -0.1% -11.2%-5.6% -2.7% -1.0% -2.0% 4.7% Construction -16.0% 10.5% 20.6%-2.5% 5.5% -2.0% 3.6% 0.1% -2.7% -2.8% -1.7% 1.1% 9.2% Trans. & Public Util. 4.3% 3.2% 4.6% 2.5% 3.2% 11.7%5.2% -0.2% -1.5% -0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 3.7% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 8.4% -14.4% 1.0% 11.6%22.6%7.2% 1.6% 0.2% -0.4% -0.3% 0.6% 3.4% 9.2% Retail Trade 5.2% -45.5% 75.6%-56.4%45.1%19.0%29.6%1.7% -0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 6.8% 37.1% Wholesale Trade 11.7% 3.9% 2.7% 5.5% -2.1% -3.3% 7.0% -2.8% -4.9% -1.7% -1.5% 1.3% 5.2% Services 22.0% 19.8% 1.4% 16.0%19.6%22.7%3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 3.9% 10.1% 9.7% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 9.6% 0.4% 17.0%-5.1% -15.1%-6.5% -3.1% 7.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 1.0% 8.6% Panel B.1.13 Employment (units) Exports to Rest of World 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Durables Manuf. 8,411 8,694 9,383 9,814 10,8369,978 9,688 9,612 8,928 8,233 7,910 8,187 Non-Durables Manuf. 2,841 2,881 3,003 3,040 3,203 3,063 3,092 3,134 2,873 2,672 2,600 2,702 Mining 75 76 78 81 92 110 48 48 40 36 34 34 Construction 14 14 15 15 16 15 13 12 54 96 135 187 Trans. & Public Util. 4,909 5,221 5,758 6,086 6,143 6,154 6,158 6,644 6,070 5,586 5,281 5,288 Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 2,972 3,417 3,516 3,830 4,190 4,375 4,619 4,544 4,248 4,062 3,967 4,144 Retail Trade 315 329 344 347 356 344 413 432 457 467 497 565 Wholesale Trade 6,740 7,044 7,599 7,763 8,335 7,778 8,062 8,421 8,243 7,668 7,568 7,864 Services 4,752 5,380 5,806 6,191 7,288 7,401 5,286 5,502 5,253 5,073 5,001 5,282 Agri. & For. & Fish Services 943 921 904 744 815 779 814 765 754 729 715 750

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43 Panel B.1.14 Employment (% change) Exports to Rest of World 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f 2003f 2004f Average Std. Dev. Durables Manuf. 3.4% 7.9% 4.6% 10.4%-7.9% -2.9% -0.8% -7.1% -7.8% -3.9% 3.5% -0.1% 6.4% Non-Durables Manuf. 1.4% 4.2% 1.2% 5.4% -4.4% 0.9% 1.4% -8.3% -7.0% -2.7% 3.9% -0.4% 4.6% Mining 1.3% 2.6% 3.8% 13.6%19.6%-56.4%0.0% -16.7%-10.0% -5.6% 0.0% -4.3% 19.9% Construction 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 6.7% -6.3% -13.3%-7.7% 350.0%77.8% 40.6% 38.5%44.9% 104.8% Trans. & Public Util. 6.4% 10.3% 5.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 7.9% -8.6% -8.0% -5.5% 0.1% 0.9% 6.3% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 15.0% 2.9% 8.9% 9.4% 4.4% 5.6% -1.6% -6.5% -4.4% -2.3% 4.5% 3.3% 6.5% Retail Trade 4.4% 4.6% 0.9% 2.6% -3.4% 20.1%4.6% 5.8% 2.2% 6.4% 13.7%5.6% 6.3% Wholesale Trade 4.5% 7.9% 2.2% 7.4% -6.7% 3.7% 4.5% -2.1% -7.0% -1.3% 3.9% 1.5% 5.1% Services 13.2% 7.9% 6.6% 17.7%1.6% -28.6%4.1% -4.5% -3.4% -1.4% 5.6% 1.7% 12.1% Agri. & For. & Fish Services -2.3% -1.8% -17.7%9.5% -4.4% 4.5% -6.0% -1.4% -3.3% -1.9% 4.9% -1.8% 7.0% f = REMI forecast Table B2 Demand Source Quadrant Correlations by Industry Division Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA Panel B2.1 Growth Growth Growth Growth Intermediate Demand Sources 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. 5.46%-5.99%7.16% 6.28% Non-Durables Manuf. 7.97%-5.53%0.66% -0.15% Mining 10.26%-3.64%-12.82% 30.95% Construction 0.77%6.59%4.88% 28.35% Trans. & Public Util. 20.27%-2.51%7.33% 15.61% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 44.44%1.73%21.98% 30.72% Retail Trade -42.36%-0.63%-11.99% -30.85% Wholesale Trade 15.34%-18.35%8.37% 4.92% Services 32.79%5.93%19.68% 14.50% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 20.83%23.50%13.12% 28.68% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.20.30.3 0.6 Less than Average 0.80.70.7 0.4

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44 Panel B2.2 Growth Growth Growth Growth Local Consumption 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. 15.18%13.18%11.57% 5.18% Non-Durables Manuf. 3.67%12.82%0.20% 11.79% Mining 0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00% Construction 250.00%4500.00%100.00% 33.33% Trans. & Public Util. 19.38%8.51%11.89% 14.29% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 21.08%3.35%7.54% 11.05% Retail Trade 19.47%3.73%14.36% 5.91% Wholesale Trade 15.40%5.09%10.16% 11.96% Services 17.05%6.59%10.18% 8.14% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 33.94%32.34%16.44% 10.63% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.20.60.3 0.2 Less than Average 0.80.40.7 0.8 Panel B.2.3 Growth Growth Growth Growth Government Demand 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. -27.28%5.83%-20.25% -8.37% Non-Durables Manuf. 1.47%14.12%4.25% 0.85% Mining nmnmnm nm Construction 23.75%16.17%13.63% 6.18% Trans. & Public Util. 7.41%8.44%7.41% 8.97% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 17.69%3.57%18.75% 5.47% Retail Trade 182.30%88.54%30.09% 62.98% Wholesale Trade 7.38%12.44%5.98% 0.85% Services -63.50%109.87%38.45% -81.23% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 56.60%46.32%43.40% 44.78% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.30.80.5 0.2 Less than Average 0.60.10.4 0.7

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45 Panel B.2.4 Growth Growth Growth Growth Investment Activity 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. -0.13%-0.07%-1.88% 7.25% Non-Durables Manuf. 139.84%53.27%24.22% 5.60% Mining 0.00%0.00%-14.29% 0.00% Construction 38.32%-2.47%18.04% 15.08% Trans. & Public Util. 56.02%17.32%31.02% 32.44% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 54.17%0.38%11.64% 23.33% Retail Trade 86.27%15.04%33.87% -8.18% Wholesale Trade 150.74%43.33%66.17% 28.24% Services 96.72%49.80%36.07% 65.16% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 60.87%59.52%39.13% 34.29% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.80.60.7 0.6 Less than Average 0.20.40.3 0.4 Panel B.2.5 Growth Growth Growth Growth Exports to Rest of Florida 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. -0.28%-4.95%1.96% 3.68% Non-Durables Manuf. -0.46%3.94%-8.96% 3.43% Mining 3.82%-13.70%-5.34% 4.96% Construction 34.90%-0.28%15.15% 12.49% Trans. & Public Util. 20.43%4.34%9.00% 16.57% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 44.02%0.21%11.47% 22.28% Retail Trade 2.46%-0.69%23.85% 0.11% Wholesale Trade 4.29%-3.01%-0.61% 1.78% Services 26.92%14.72%19.64% 12.81% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 15.92%24.58%9.52% 30.36% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.30.20.4 0.3 Less than Average 0.70.80.6 0.7

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46 Panel B.2.6 Growth Growth Growth Growth Exports to Rest of Nation 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. -2.34%-7.03%-0.16% 8.30% Non-Durables Manuf. -6.65%0.88%-15.74% 3.71% Mining -5.59%-19.40%-3.49% 1.08% Construction 15.23%-3.64%11.99% 7.16% Trans. & Public Util. 18.92%3.51%12.45% 21.32% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 28.10%1.67%-6.32% 33.43% Retail Trade -36.25%32.93%0.69% 123.83% Wholesale Trade 23.07%-4.22%19.16% 1.31% Services 105.74%10.27%48.25% 51.24% Agri. & For. & Fish Services 3.69%10.83%28.72% -23.11% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.30.30.3 0.4 Less than Average 0.70.70.7 0.6 Panel B.2.7 Growth Growth Growth Growth Exports to Rest of World 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Durables Manuf. 18.63%-15.49%16.68% -11.30% Non-Durables Manuf. 7.81%-12.61%7.00% -2.15% Mining 46.67%-29.17%8.00% -47.83% Construction 7.14%1338.46%7.14% -25.00% Trans. & Public Util. 25.36%-14.13%23.98% 8.16% Fin. & Ins. & Real Estate 47.21%-10.28%28.87% 8.45% Retail Trade 9.21%36.80%10.16% 21.35% Wholesale Trade 15.40%-2.46%15.18% 1.03% Services 55.74%-0.08%30.28% -24.51% Agri. & For. & Fish Services -17.39%-7.86%-21.10% -6.13% Average 22.71%5.65%12.70% 13.09% Quadrant Correlations 93 98 99 04 93 96 97 00 Greater than Average 0.40.20.4 0.1 Less than Average 0.60.80.6 0.9


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Economic structure of the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL metropolitan statistical area
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