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Potential economic effects of the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the state of Florida

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Title:
Potential economic effects of the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the state of Florida
Physical Description:
1 online resource (iii, 98 p.) : ill. ;
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English
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University of South Florida -- Center for Economic Development Research
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Center for Economic Development Research
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Tampa, Fla
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Subjects / Keywords:
Commerce -- United States -- Latin America   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- United States -- Caribbean Area   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Florida -- Latin America   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Florida -- Caribbean Area   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Latin America -- United States   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Caribbean Area -- United States   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Latin America -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Caribbean Area -- Florida   ( lcsh )
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bibliography   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

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Includes bibliographical references.
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prepared by the Center for Economic Development Research, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida.
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Title from PDF of title page (viewed Aug. 6, 2009).
General Note:
"May 2005."

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aleph - 002023209
oclc - 429531972
usfldc doi - C63-00034
usfldc handle - c63.34
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Potential Economic Effects of the Proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the State of Florida Prepared by the CENTER FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH College of Business Administration 1101 Channelside Drive, Second Floor North, Tampa, Florida 33602 Office: (813) 905-5854 or Fax: (813) 905-5856 May 2005

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i TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface ii Executive Summary iii Section 1: Introduction 1 Section 2: Baseline Trade Levels Across Western Hemisphere 9 Section 3: Potential Impacts: Literature Review .... 23 Section 4: Potential Imp acts: Economic Modeling .. 30 Section 5: Conclusions 38 Appendix A. Production and Trade Data 39 Appendix B. Citrus and Sugar cane Production in Florida.. 70 Appendix C. Description of Input-Output Models 75 Appendix D. Description of REMI Policy InsightTM Model. 79 Appendix E. Detailed Effects of FTAA Full Implementation (F.I.).. 81 Appendix F. Economic Effects of FTAA Partial Implementation (P.I.).. 90

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ii Preface In order to advance effective public policy recommendations regarding the statewide impact of globalizat ion, the University of South Floridas (USF) Globalization Research Center commissioned the Center for Economic Developmen t Research (CEDR) to conduct a study of the poten tial economic effects of pr oposed free trade agreements on the state of Florida. CEDR, a unit of the USF College of Bu siness Administration, initiates and conducts innovative research on economic development. The Centers education programs are designed to cultiv ate excellence in regional deve lopment. Our information system serves to enhance development efforts at USF, its College of Business, and throughout the Tampa Bay area and the state of Florida. May 2005 (Revised) Robert Anderson, Dean, College of Business Administration (COBA), USF Dennis Colie, Director, CEDR, COBA, USF, Co-pri ncipal Investigator Dave Sobush, Associate Director, CEDR, CO BA, USF, Co-princip al Investigator Michael Bernabe, Graduate Research Assistant, CEDR, COBA, USF Jason Rodriguez, Graduate Resear ch Assistant, CEDR, COBA, USF

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iii Executive Summary This report estimates the potential effects of the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the Florida economy. Economic effects are measured by jobs, output, and regional product. These are thr ee descriptions of the same phenomenon, as mass, density, and shape can each be used to describe a solid. The FTAA, if enacted, would become th e largest Free Trade Area (FTA) in the world, encompassing 34 Western Hemisphere nations. Modeled after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the FTAA would reduce over a period of time the prevailing tariffs and other trade re strictions. Currently, the prevailing tariffs imposed on U.S. exports to Latin America can be as high as 25%, ad valorem. Latin American exports to the U.S. typically face fewer and smaller barriers to trade. The FTAAs planned enactment date of January 2005 has passed, and at this time the Dominican Republic Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) appears to have more political viability than the FTAA. The effects of a full FTAA would encompass the DR-CAFTA effects. Relative to the FTAA nations, the U.S. in year 2000 generated 68.08% of regional production. The U.S. economy is far more dedi cated to services th an its potential FTAA companions. Florida, in turn, produces relatively more services than the U.S. as a whole. Currently, the U.S. carries a trade deficit in ag ricultural and manufactured products with the rest of the FTAA nations, but surpluses in regards to services and investment. Net exports of manufactures to the NAFTA nations (Canada and Mexico) plummeted following enactment of the NAFTA. Because the FTAA seeks to model itself after the NAFTA, logic suggests effects of an FTAA would resemble effects of the NAF TA. Empirical research on the effects of the NAFTA on the U.S. economy suggests that the NAFTA increased total trade with Mexico, net trade (exports minus imports) with Mexico and also increased U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Other predictive st udies regarding the pot ential effects of the FTAA and DR-CAFTA predic t similar results. Using economic modeling software to eliminate tariffs on agriculture and manufactures, we estimate that enactment of an FTAA would have a slight, but positive, effect on Floridas economy. In the first year of enactment, we estimate Florida employment to increase by 24,973 jobs (0.26%), Florida output (sales) to increase by $4.5B (96$), or 0.52%, and Gross State Produc t (GSP) to increase by $2.2B (96$), or 0.39%. The effects of an FTAA would increas e over time, percola ting through Floridas economy. Finally, we find that full implement ation yields relatively larger economic benefits than partial implementation.

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1 Section 1: Introduction This report estimates the potential economic e ffects of the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on the state of Florida. We measure economic effects by jobs, regional product, and output (sales adjusted for i nventory). We hope that this report will aid the development of economically sound policy and investme nt both nationally and regionally. By examining current trade flows from FTAA nations, and the current tariffs levied on such trade, we modify the prevailing prices of imported and exported goods. To produce the estimates, we utilize two computer models, both widely used for these types of economic analyses. To estimate the direct employme nt effect of an FTAA on crop a nd animal production, we utilize the IMPLAN ProfessionalTM model, developed by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. To estimate the other economic effects of an FTAA, we add this result to the REMI Policy Insight macroeconomic model, developed by Regional Econom ic Models Inc., of Am herst, Massachusetts, concomitant with changes to export and import cost s. Descriptions of both models appear as appendices to this report. Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) The Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) is a proposed hemispheric-wide free trade zone spanning 34 countries in North, Central, an d South America, along with the Caribbean. Once passed, it would become the largest Fr ee Trade Area (FTA) in the world. Table 1 lists the countries participating in FTAA negotiations. Table 1 FTAA Country Participants Antigua and Barbuda Guyana Argentina Haiti Bahamas Honduras Barbados Jamaica Belize Mexico Bolivia Nicaragua Brazil Panama Canada Paraguay Chile Peru Colombia Saint Kitts and Nevis Costa Rica Saint Lucia Dominica Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Dominican Republic Suriname Ecuador Trinidad and Tobago El Salvador United States of America Grenada Uruguay Guatemala Venezuela

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2 Discussion of the FTAA first began in Decem ber 1994 at the first Summit of the Americas in Miami, Florida. Due to the Mexican Peso cr isis, however, official ne gotiations re garding the FTAA were postponed until the second Summit of th e Americas held in April 1998 at Santiago, Chile. Negotiations for the FTAA have missed thei r scheduled completion target of January 2005. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the guide for the proposed FTAA. The FTAA would expand the scope of the NAFTA to include all the countries in the Americas (except Cuba) while also incor porating several rules utilized by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The proposed FTAA w ould include new rules for cross border trade-in-services, protection of intellectual property rights, rules to protect the right s of transnational corporations, and a dispute settlement mechanism that allows corporations to sue governments directly for violating these rules. Enforcing the rules established by the FT AA would combine methods used by the WTO and in the NAFTA. Regarding state-to-state disputes the WTO mode l would be used and regarding investor-to-state disp utes the NAFTA model would be used. The state-to-state mechanism of the WTO would allow for the polic ies and programs of another country to be overruled. The investor-to-state mechanism in th e NAFTA grants corporations the rights to sue governments directly for violating any investment s rules of Chapter 11 of the NAFTA. Proposed FTAA investment rules would be similar. Forei gn-based corporations will be allowed to by-pass their own governments and sue other governments regarding issues involving investments and profits. 1 FTAA Development Timeline 1994 December 1st Summit of the Americas (Miami, FL) launches FTAA process 1997 May Trade Ministerial in Belo Horizonte, Brazil 1998 April 2nd Summit of the Americas (Santiago, Chile) Actual Negotiations begin 1999 November Trade Ministerial in Toronto 2001 Early April Trade ministers announce agreements to release text Late April Quebec City Summit: leaders agree to FTAA timeline 2002 April Vice Ministers fail to set guidelines for negotiations May Vice Ministers reconvene produce only initial guidance October Deadline for completing second draft text November 7th Trade Ministerial to be he ld in Ecuador; Brazil and United States to assume co-chairmanship 1 Barlow, Maude and Tony Clarke. (n.d.). Making the Links: A Peoples Guide to the WTO and the FTAA (Council of Canadians and Polaris Institute) Retrieved Jan 2005 from http://www.citizen.org/trade/ftaa/.

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3 FTAA Development Timeline (Contd) 2003 Mid-February Period for presenting offers on goods, services, investment, and government procurement concludes 2004 December Proposed deadline for FTAA enactment 2005 January Deadline missed for concluding negotiations Source: Institute for Policy Studies, web: http://www.ips-dc.org Proposed FTAA Details The main purpose of the FTAA is to promot e economic growth and prosperity of the member countries by eventually eliminating barrie rs to trade in goods, services, and investment within the Western Hemisphere by 2005. The goal of the FTAA process is not to replace existing trade agreements but rather to use these sub-regiona l trade blocs as the basis of negotiations. With this in mind FTAA objectives and principles also mandate special consideration be given to the smaller, less developed countries of the hemisphe re. The FTAA hopes to facilitate the integration of these smaller economies into the agreement. A nother main objective of the FTAA is to secure observance and protection of worker rights. Also it is clear that the FTAA will not become a final agreement until all 34 participating nations have approved each issue.2 U.S. Position on Major Negotiating Issues The FTAAs purpose in regards to market access is to establish rules for progressively eliminating tariffs, non-tariff barrier s, and other measures that rest rict trade. The guiding principle is that of national treatment, which means that governments are required to treat foreign investors, investments, and products at leas t as favorably as their national counterparts.3 The U.S. proposes that the base rate, from wh ich tariffs are phased out, be the lower of a products most favored nation (MFN ) applied rate in effect duri ng the FTAA negotiations or the WTO bound rate at the end of the FTAA negotiati ng process. The U.S. proposes three different categories of tariffs, one class immediately elimina ting tariffs on some classe s of products, and the other two classes phasing out tari ffs over a 5 or a 10-year period. Th e U.S. proposes that the actual classification of the products be based on the 1996 Harmonized System (and the changes planned for 2002). The U.S. also proposes that imported goods must be treated no less favorably than like domestic goods in respects of the law and the el imination of consular tr ansactions and import and 2 McCoy, Terry L. (2001). The Free Trade Area of The Americas: Opportunities & Challenges for Florida Retrieved Jan 2005 from http://www.latam.ufl.edu/publications/publisting.html#labep. 3 Anderson, Sarah and John Cavanagh. (2002). State of the Debate on the Free Trade of the Americas Retrieved Jan 2005 from http://www.pcusa.org/trade/ftaa.htm.

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4 export restrictions and increased transparency regarding import licensing procedures and fees imposed in connection with importation and exportation.4 To guard against or remedy import injury suffered by a domestic industry, the U.S. proposes that the safeguard measures be in the form of tariff increases, and opposes tariff rate quotas and quantitative restrict ions. Before a safeguard measure would be implemented, the FTAA country would have the burden of proving a particular import is a substantial ca use of serious injury to a domestic industry. The U.S. also proposes provisional methods in cases where the damage caused would be difficult to repair. These provisional safeguards would not exceed 200 days and there would be adequate measures for restoring an individual ve ndor to the equitable position he would have found himself in had the provisional measures not been erroneously applied against him. The U.S. further proposes that hemispheric safeguards would only be available for a period of ten y ears and that they may be impos ed only once against the same good and for a maximum of three years. These hemi spheric safeguards could take the form of suspension of duty reduction or increases (with lim its) of the duty on a particular good. One of the U.S.s goals is to eliminate and prevent unnecessa ry technical barriers to trade in the Western Hemisphere.5 The FTAAs purpose in regards to investment is to create a stable and predictable environment that protects international investors.6 The U.S. proposes that the scope of the investment be dictated by the definitions and cont ent of the particular commitment giving rise to the investment, but proposes denying benefits of the agreement to investments that are "shell" companies. The U.S. also proposes that investor s in like circumstances be given the better of national treatment or most favored nation (M FN) treatment. The U.S. supports classic expropriation disciplines (i.e., th at expropriations must be for a public purpose, nondiscriminatory, in accordance with due process of law, and accompanied by payment of prompt, adequate, and effective compensation). Regarding managerial pe rsonnel, the U.S. makes two specific proposals: (1) foreign Party's right to enter the territory of another FTAA country for the purpose of establishing, maintaining, advisi ng or providing other essential serv ices to an investment; and, (2) investors given "the right to hire their top managerial personnel w ithout regard to nationality. The U.S. further "proposes that invest ors have the right to transfer f unds into and out of the FTAA host country without delay using a market rate of exchange. The U.S. also proposes prohibiting mandatory requirements, such as incorporating sp ecified levels of local contents, export at specified levels, etc. Regarding the environment and labor laws, the U.S. has proposed that FTAA countries should be obliged to strive to ensure that neither environmen tal nor labor laws are relaxed in order to attract investments. The U.S. encourages transparency.7 The FTAAs purpose in regard to services is to progressively liberalize trade in services (everything from financial services, teleco mmunications, and tourism to health care and education). This means opening up local service ma rkets to foreign busine sses and restricting or prohibiting governmental policies th at interfere with the market.8 The U.S.'s position on services is that the FTAA Agreement service chapter should be comprehensive, cover all service sectors 4 McCoy (2001) 5 Ibid 6 Anderson and Cavanagh (2002) 7 McCoy (2001) 8 Anderson and Cavanagh (2002)

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5 and service suppliers and include all leve ls of governments and non-governmental bodies performing government dele gated responsibilities.9 The FTAAs purpose in regard to agriculture is to progressively eliminate agricultural tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and expor t subsidies and to ensure that food safety standards are not disguised restrictions on trade.10 The U.S. calls for a coordinated approach between the Market Access and Agriculture Negotiating Groups to develop fundamental ta riff models. U.S. calls for: (1) agreement to eliminate agricultural expor t subsidies within the hemisphere and (2) establishment of mechanisms to prevent agricultu ral products from being exported to the FTAA by non-FTAA countries.11 Economic Implications of Tariffs A tariff is a tax placed on imported and/or exported goods, sometimes called a customs duty. Two main types of tariffs exist, a revenue ta riff and a protective tariff. While a revenue tariff is set mainly to raise money for the government and a protective tariff is intended to artificially inflate prices of imports thus protecting dome stic industries from fore ign competition, the true distinction between the two is unclear. Revenue ta riffs also offer protectio n and protective tariffs can also produce some revenue for the regulating country unless they are prohibitive in which case little or nothing is imported of that product, thus resulting in trivial or no revenue. A tariff is usually implemented as a specific tari ff or an ad valorem tariff. A specific tariff is one of a specific amount of money that does no t vary with the price of the good. Difficulty lies in deciding the amount at which to set them, and they may need to be updated due to changes in the market or inflation. An ad valorem tariff is a fixed percentage of the value of the good that is being imported. These can be problematic to apply, such as when the international price of a good falls, so does the tariff, and domestic indus tries become more vulnerable to competition. Conversely when the price of a good rises on the international mark et so does the tariff, but a country is often less interested in pr otection when the price is higher. Protective tariffs are a measure used to protect a country's ma jor industries against foreign competition, which can result in the loss of jobs a nd tax revenue that can severely impair parts of that country's economy. However, protective tariffs have disadvantages as well. The most notable is that they increase the price of the good subject to the tariff, disadvantaging consumers of that good or manufacturers who use that good to produ ce something else: for example a tariff on food can increase hunger, while a tariff on steel can make automobile manufacture less competitive.12 Table 2 reports Latin American tariffs on U.S. goods and the regional value of revenue gained through exporting certain items in the y ear 2000. The approximate total value of selected merchandise is $676B. The table also shows the revenue share of each item gained by exporting to Latin America and the tariffs app lied on those items. Tariffs app lied to these items average 13.76% (ad valorem). Finally, the table reports estimat ed tariff expenses incurred by the U.S. from 9 McCoy (2001) 10 Anderson and Cavanagh (2002) 11 McCoy (2001) 12 Tariff (n.d.) Retrieved April 2005, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs

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6 exporting these items to Latin America. Average expenses incurred from Latin American tariffs on selected merchandise are $6.5B. Table 2 Tariffs on U.S. Merchandise Exports to Latin America NAICS Sub-sectors Merchandise Description 2000 U.S. Exports ($ million) Ad Valorem Barriers On U.S. Exports Share Of Total U.S. Exports B y Sector Estimated US Tariff Expenses Incurred From Exporting To LA ($ million) 313 Wool $ 19 25.00%0.01 $ 0.05 313 Natural fibers $ 1,925 7.54%0.1 $ 14.51 311 Primary food production $ 30,890 9.51%0.08 $ 235.01 113-4, 211-2 Other primary production $ 7,019 1.99%0.06 $ 8.38 311 Sugar $ 158 18.70%0.39 $ 11.52 311-2 Processed food, tobacco, and beverages $ 20,406 17.13%0.08 $ 279.64 313-4 Textiles $ 10,534 18.03%0.18 $ 341.87 315 Wearing apparel $ 8,191 19.36%0.05 $ 79.29 316 Leather products $ 1,426 19.08%0.12 $ 32.65 325-7 Chemicals, refinery products, rubber, and plastics $ 96,860 9.06%0.11 $ 965.31 331 Steel refinery products $ 5,715 10.79%0.09 $ 55.50 423 Non-ferrous metal products $ 7,553 9.25%0.05 $ 34.93 423 Motor vehicles and parts $ 57,421 21.78%0.05 $ 625.31 334-5 Electronic machinery and equipment $ 136,512 10.52%0.08 $ 1,148.88 333 Other machinery and equipment $ 207,507 10.37%0.08 $ 1,721.48 321-3 Other manufactured goods $ 84,175 12.11%0.09 $ 917.42 Total $ 676,311 $ 6,471.77 Source: FTAA: Blueprint for Prosperi ty, Building on NAFTA's Success (September 2001). Table TA.4 From the table it can be gathered that Latin America imposes a wide range of tariff rates on U.S. merchandise. To put it more in perspective we placed items in their sub-sector and analyzed the tariff ranges according to the sub-sector. Average tariff rates on Production goods (food and non-food), which include NAICS sub-sect ors such as 113, 114, 211, 212, 311 and 312, ranges from 1.99% to 18.7%. Textile, apparel, and leather manufacturing, which includes NAICS subsectors 313 through 316, has an average tariff ra nge of 7.54% to 25%. Other non-textile and nonmetal manufacturing (such as wood, paper, plas tic, chemicals, non-metallic minerals), which includes NAICS sub-sectors 321 through 327, has an average tariff range of 9.06% to 12%. Metal and Electronic products and manufacturing, which includes NAICS sub-sectors 331 to 335, has an average tariff range of 10.37% to 10.79%. Economic Implications of Quotas A quota basically establishes an upper limit on the amount of a product that can be imported during a given period. This can result in severely inflated prices on goods and curb competition within that industry. In general, the goods that have quotas placed against them are

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7 goods that the country does not have a competitive advantage in and yet produces them. Because the country does not have a competitive advantag e in the goods, the cost of producing the goods will be higher than the cost of other countries, and therefore, the selling price will be higher than the world price of the goods. In the end, consum ers are the ones who suffer the consequences by paying higher prices for the goods that have restrictions placed on it. Several Latin American countries impose notab le quotas on U.S. goods. Highlights include quotas on pulp, paper, and automobiles impos ed by Argentina, quotas on industrial goods (including automobiles) and on informatics pr oducts imposed by Brazil, and quotas on poultry products, meat, and fruits imposed by Chile. Although not a true quota higher duties based on quantity are imposed on alcoholic beverages, textiles, some luxur y items, and automobiles by El Salvador. Also while quotas were recently elimin ated in Costa Rica, the institution of new tariffs essentially replaced them. While the U.S. may not be affected by any quotas imposed by Mexico, they continue to face extensive custom procedur es on products including textiles, footwear, beer, and consumer electronics.13 The U.S. also faces tariff rate quotas imposed by Canada on dairy, eggs, and poultry products.14 A tariff rate quota (TRQ) combines the restrictive po licies of quotas and tariffs. In a TRQ, the quota component works t ogether with a specified tariff level to provide the desired degree of import protection.15 Estimated Economic Effects of FTAA Estimated economic effects to result from the implementation of the FTAA include:16 The FTAA will increase annual U.S. globa l agricultural exports and imports by about $1B each. Elimination of tariffs on intra-regional trade in agriculture and manufacturing will increase annual U.S. agri cultural exports to other countries in the Western Hemisphere by $1.4B (6 percent) a nd annual imports from the 33 countries by about $900M (3 percent). Agricultural trade in the Western Hemisphere will increase by $4B (6 percent). Trade liberalization of both agricultural and manufacturing goods in the FTAA will increase the welfare (consumer purchasing power) of the Western Hemisphere by $63B annually. The FTAA will have small effects on U.S. agricultural production because trade with the Western Hemisphere accounts for only a small sh are of aggregate output, and U.S. tariffs are already low. Estimated economic impacts of the FTAA for Florida include:17 13 Latin American Trade and Transportation Study (Phase 1) (2001). Retrieved April 2005, from http://www.wilbursmith.com/latts/index.html 14 Canada: Trade. (2004). Retrieved April 2005, from Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture Web site: http://www.ers.u sda.gov/briefing/canada/trade.htm 15 Tariff rate quota (n.d.) Retrieved May 2005, from http://www .webref.org/agriculture/t/tariff_rate_quota.htm 16 Burfisher, Mary E .US Agriculture and the Free Trade Area of the Americas. (2004). Retrieved March 2005 from http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/aer827/ 17 The Economic Impacts of Locating the FTAA Secretariat in Florida (2003). Retrieved January 2005 from http://www.eflorida.com/

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8 The generation of approximately 45,254 jobs as a result of trade liberalization achieved with the FTAA. An average annual estimate of $1.6B in payroll earnings. An estimated addition $7.6B to Floridas Gross State Product can be expected. An estimated $73M annually in fiscal revenue s for Floridas state and local governments. U.S.-Dominican Republic-Central Amer ica Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) As mentioned above, the nego tiations for the FTAA have not progressed as rapidly as originally hoped. Thus, separate negotiations bilatera l and multilateral have gone forward in the hopes of creating a hemispheric FTA in lieu of a full FTAA. One such agreement is the U.S.Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA). The Congress of El Salvador has already ratified th e DR-CAFTA, which is expected to go before the U.S. Congress in mid-2005. While it appears that the DR-CAFTA ma y become reality well in advance of a full FTAA, we present in this report only the estimated effects of a full FTAA. Summary Thirty-four countries in North, Central, and South America, and the Caribbean are included in the proposed free trade zone known as the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The main focus of FTAA negotiations is to eliminate trad e barriers to goods, serv ices, and investments between the countries involved, thus promoti ng economic growth. The proposed deadline for completion of negotiations and implementation of FTAA was January 2005. That deadline has passed, negotiations have not been comp leted, and no FTAA has been implemented. The U.S.s most significant contribution to the ongoing negotiations was the proposal to eliminate tariffs and other restrictive trade ba rriers. Upon implementation of the FTAA U.S. agricultural exports to other countries in the Western Hemisphere would experience an annual estimated increase of $1.4 billion, imports from those countries would increase by about $900M, and welfare of the Western Hemisphere would increase by about $63B annua lly. Existing tariffs imposed by Latin America on U.S. products that sta nd to be eliminated range from 1.99% to 25% ad valorem. Based on U.S. exports in 2000, that is an elimination of about $6.5B incurred as tariff expense to Latin America. Narrower ranges apply to certain categories of products such as: 1.99% to 18.7% for production goods, 7.54% to 25% for tex tile, apparel, and leather manufacturing, and 9.06% to 12% for non-textile a nd non-metal manufacturing. While negotiations for a full FTAA have yet to be completed other negotiations for smaller bilateral and multilateral agreements have been moving forward and are closer to completion. Most notable is the U.S. Dominican Republic -Central America Free Trade Agreement (DRCAFTA) scheduled to go before the U.S. Congress around mid-2005.

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9 Section 2: Baseline Production and Tr ade Levels Across Western Hemisphere The purpose of this section is to report national production and recent trade flows between the United States and selected Western Hemisphe re nations. We examine gross domestic product (GDP), exports, imports, and net exports (trade balance) in three sectors: agriculture, manufactures, and services. These are the sect ors for which we will later report the potential effects of an FTAA. We also examine invest ment positions between the U.S. and the other participant FTAA nations. In this section, summa ry charts are utilized for our presentation; Appendix A contains detailed data tables fr om which the charts were developed. Wherever possible, we report data by na tion group. The three nation groups are (1) NAFTA, composed of the United States, Cana da, and Mexico, (2) the Group of Six, which represents the nations of Argentina, Brazil, Ch ile, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela, and (3) the Micro-Economies, defined as th e balance of the FTAA nations. National Production of FTAA Participants National production and producti on by sector varies greatly across the nations of the Western Hemisphere. Regional production among the FTAA nations increased by 75% in real terms between 1981 and 2000. In 1981, U.S. GDP accounted for 65.17% of FTAA production and this share increased to 68.08% in 2000. Chart 1 depicts the composition, by share, of FTAA production by nation group. Chart 1 Composition of FTAA Production b y Nation Group, 1981-20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 19811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 Source: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002. NAFTA Group of 6 Micro Economies As shown in Chart 1, production share by na tion group remained relatively stable from 1981-2000. Chart 2 depicts annual production for each of the three FTAA nation groups.

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10 Chart 2 Production by FTAA Nation Group, 1981-2000$$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,0001 98 1 1 98 2 1 98 3 1 98 4 1 98 5 1 98 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 1 99 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 1 99 8 1 99 9 2 00 0Source: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002.Billions of 1996 Dollars NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies As shown in Chart 2, production from the NAF TA nations has increased at a greater pace than the other nation groups. Measured in 1996 dollars, FTAA production from the NAFTA nations in 1981 was $3.7T, from the Group of Six, $907B, and the Micro-Economies contributed $144B. By 2000, these amounts had increased to $11.6T, $2.4T, and $361B, respectively. Chart 3 reports, for years 1999-2003, the percen tage of each nation groups economy attributable to agriculture. The FTAA total is the weighted average (by GDP) of each nations agriculture percentage. Here, agriculture corresponds to Inte rnational Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), divisions 1-5 and include s forestry, hunting, and fishing, as well as cultivation of crops and livestock production. Chart 3 A g riculture Production as a Percenta g e of Nation-Group Economy, 1999-20030 2 4 6 8 10 12 1419992000200120022003 Source: World Bank Data Query Database, http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies FTAA

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11 In 1999, 2.48% of FTAA regional production wa s tied to agriculture. Among the FTAA nation groups, the Micro-Economies had the larges t agriculture sector, m easured at 12.18% of their economy, the Group of Six nations 7.08%, and the NAFTA nations 1.82%. By 2003, agriculture accounted for 2.31% of FTAA regi onal production, with the NAFTA nations share falling slightly to 1.80%, the Group of Six rising to 7.41%, and the Micro-Economies saw agricultures contribution to their economy fall to 11.27%. Chart 4 reports, for years 1999-2003, the percen tage of each nation groups economy attributable to industry. The FTAA total is the weighted average (by GDP) of each nations industry percentage. Here, industry corres ponds to ISIC divisions 10-45 and includes manufacturing (ISIC divisions 15-37). It comp rises value added in mining, manufacturing (also reported as a separate subgroup), constr uction, electricity, water, and gas. Chart 4 Industrial Production as a Percentage of NationGroup Economy, 1999-200320 25 30 35 19992000200120022003Source: World Bank Data Query, http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies FTAA In 1999, 25.73% of FTAA regional production wa s attributed to industrial production. Among the FTAA nation groups, the Group of Six had the largest industrial sector, measured at 28.96% of their economy, the Micro-Economies 27.19%, and the NAFTA nations 25.36%. By 2003, industry accounted for 24.13% of FTAA regi onal production, with the NAFTA nations share falling to 23.87%, the Group of Six fa lling to 27.16%, and the Micro-Economies saw industrys contribution to their economy fall to 26.57%. Chart 5 reports, for years 1999-2003, the percen tage of each nation groups economy attributable to service production. The FTAA to tal is the weighted average (by GDP) of each nations production of services percentage. Serv ices correspond to ISIC divisions 50-99 and they include value added in wholesale and retail trade (i ncluding hotels and restau rants), transport, and government, financial, professional, and personal serv ices such as education, health care, and real estate services.

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12 Chart 5 Production of Services as a Percenta g e of Nation Group Economy, 1999-200360 65 70 75 80 19992000200120022003 Source: World Bank Data Query, http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies FTAA Services compose the majority of FTAA regional production. In 1999, 71.79% of FTAA regional production was tied to services. Among the FTAA nation groups, the NAFTA nations had the largest service sector measured at 72.82% of their economy, the Group of Six nations 63.96%, and the Micro-Economy nations 60.62%. By 2003, services accounted for 73.56% of FTAA regional production, with the NAFTA nations share rising to 74.34%, the Group of Six rising to 65.42%, and the Micro-Economies saw serv ices contributi on to their economy rise to 62.16%. Florida Production, 1981-2000 In 1981, Floridas Gross State Product (G SP) stood at $492B (measured in chained 1996 dollars), accounting for almost one-tenth of US GDP. By 2000, Floridas GSP increased to just over $1.1T and at that poin t, accounted for 12.2% of U.S. GDP. Chart F1 below, displays the share of regional production for Fl orida, the U.S., and the FTAA aggregate for years 1981-2000. Chart F1 Composition of FTAA Regional Product, 1981-20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%19811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000Sources: REMI TM (Florida Data), Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002. (US and FTAA Data) Florida Total US Total FTAA

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13 U.S. Agriculture Trade, 1989-2004 The following three charts display, for year s 1989 through 2004, U.S. agricultural exports, U.S. agricultural imports, and U.S. agricultural net exports (i.e. balance of trade) with the other FTAA nations. Export and import values reported in nominal dollars are based on either a Free Alongside Ship (FAS) or Customs basis.18 In 1989, U.S. agricultural exports to the FTAA region exceeded $7.6B. By nation-group, this amount was parsed as follows: Micro-Economies 19.3%, the Group of Six 12.4%, and the NAFTA groups at 68.3%. By 2004, agricultural exports from the U.S. to the FTAA region increased by 247% to $26.5B, with the shares go ing to the Micro-Economies and the Group of Six falling (10.9% and 6.5%, respectively) at the expense of an increased share to the NAFTA group 82.6%. This is a logical conclusion, given NAF TAs implementation during this time period. Chart 6 depicts the composition, by share, of U.S. agriculture exports to the FTAA nation groups. 18 Free Alongside Ship (FAS) costs include transportation and packaging costs incurred by the buyer up until the point the good is alongside, but not on the ship, where ship can be any type of vehicle or vessel. Customs valuation for imports excludes costs of international transportation and insura nce, as well as tariffs, and is similar to FAS valuation. Florida accounted for 8.27% of FTAA pr oduction in 2000. Put another way, if Florida was a nation, it would rank as the th ird-largest FTAA participant, behind the United States (less Florida) and Brazil based on year 2000 production. Floridas economy is significantly more dependent on services than the U.S., and thus more dependent on services than the FTAA aggregate. Table F1 reports, for year 2000 (the most recent year for which a direct comparison can be made), the composition of the economies of Fl orida and the three nation-groups. Table F1 Comparison of Economic Composition (by % ValueAdded) AgricultureIndustrial Services Florida 1.29%15.45%83.26% NAFTA 1.80%25.11%73.09% Group of Six 7.02%29.75%63.23% Micro-Economies 11.63%27.95%60.42% Sources: REMI, Heston, et al To balance the relatively higher reliance on services, Florida significantly differs from the rest of the NAFTA group in terms of industrial value-added as a percentage of the economy.

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14 Chart 6 Composition of U.S. A g riculture Exports to FTAA Nation Groups, 1989-20040% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1 NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies In 1989, U.S. agricultural imports from th e FTAA region exceeded $10.5B. By nationgroup, this amount was parsed as follows: Mi cro-Economies 19.8%, the Group of Six 31.0%, and the NAFTA groups at 49.2%. By 2004, agricultural imports from the FTAA region to the U.S. increased to $27.5B, with the shares going to th e Micro-Economies and the Group of Six falling (13.2% and 18.9%, respectively) at the expense of an increased share to the NAFTA group 67.9%, again showing evidence of NAFTAs positive e ffect on increasing agricultural trade flows. Chart 7 depicts the composition, by share, of U.S. agriculture imports from the FTAA nation groups. Chart 7 Composition of U.S. A g riculture Imports From FTAA Nation Groups, 1989-20040% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1 NAFTA Group of Six Micro Economies Net exports of agricultural goods from th e U.S. to the FTAA nations were negative throughout the period 1989 to 2004, except in 2001 a nd 2003. However, the value of these net exports rose from 1989 to 2004 by over $1.8B. This in crease was primarily due to U.S. trade with the NAFTA nations; net agricu ltural exports rose by $3.1B dur ing this period. Whereas,

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15 agricultural net exports from th e U.S. to the Micro-Economies fell by $141M (23%), while similar trade with the Group of Six nations fell by $1.1B (51%). Chart 8 below, displays net agricultural exports from the U.S. to the three nation-groups for years 1989-2004. Chart 8 U.S. Net A g riculture Ex p orts to FTAA Nation Grou p s, 1989-2004$(4,000) $(3,000) $(2,000) $(1,000) $$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1Millions of Nominal $ NAFTA Group of Six Micro Economies Agriculture is of special importance to Fl oridas economy, both in terms of quantitative effects (jobs, output, and pr oduct) and qualitative effects, such as historical signif icance, political influence, and state image. In Appendix B we present an analysis of the Floridas citrus and sugarcane industries with resp ect to the other FTAA nations. U.S. Manufacturing Trade, 1989-2004 The following three charts display by nation group, for years 1989 through 2004, U.S. manufacturing exports, U.S. manu facturing imports, and U.S. ma nufacturing net exports (i.e. balance of trade) with the other FTAA nations. In this section, manuf acturing is defined as Standard International Trade Classi fication (SITC) Sections 5 through 9.19 We express all values in nominal dollars. In 1989, U.S. manufacturing exports to th e FTAA region exceeded $110.5B. By nationgroup, this amount was parsed as follows: Micr o-Economies 6.6%, the Group of Six 9.8%, and the NAFTA group at 83.6%. By 2004, manufacturing exports from the U.S. to the FTAA region increased to $314.3B, with the shares going to th e Micro-Economies decreasing slightly, to 6.5%, and the Group of Six falling to 9.1% at the expe nse of an increased share to the NAFTA group 84.3%, suggesting again the influence of NAFTA on U.S. trade flows. 19 The SITC, now in its third revision, predates the Harmonized System and is an appropriate classification system for data when international comparability is required, especially for long time series.

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16 Chart 9 depicts the composition of U.S. manuf actures exports by nation group for years 1989-2004. Chart 9 Composition of U.S. Manufactures Exports to FTAA Nation Groups, 1989-20040% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Source: Presented by the Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce NAFTA Group of 6 Micro-Economies As depicted in Chart 9, the composition of U.S. manufactures e xports to FTAA nation groups did not experience tremendous change s from 1989 to 2004. However, in the immediate post-NAFTA years (1995-1998), manuf actures exports to the NAFTA nations as a percentage of manufactures exports to th e FTAA region dipped slightly. In 1989, manufacturing imports from the FT AA region exceeded $100.2B. By nationgroup, this amount was parsed as follows: Micr o-Economies 3.9%, the Group of Six 8.5%, and the NAFTA groups at 87.6%. By 2004, manufacturing im ports to the U.S. from the FTAA region increased to $352.3B, with the shares going to th e Micro-Economies increasing to 5.0%, and the Group of Six falling to 7.6% at the expense of an increased share to the NAFTA group 84.3%, suggesting again the influence of NAFTA on U.S. tr ade flows. The relatively stable structure of manufacturing import shares by nation-group may be attr ibutable to the general lack of U.S. tariffs on goods manufactured within the hemisphere.20 Chart 10 displays the composition of U.S. ma nufactures imports by FTAA nation group for years 1989-2004. 20 Smith, Mark. The Economic Impact of the U.S. -Dominican Republic-Central Am erica Free Trade Agreement (DRCAFTA) on Florida. U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 2004.

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17 Chart 10 Composition of U.S. Manufactures Imports From FTAA Nation Groups, 1989-2004 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Source: Presented by the Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce NAFTA Group of 6 Micro-Economies As depicted in Chart 10, the composition of U. S. manufactures imports from FTAA nation groups did not experience tremendous change s from 1989 to 2004. However, in the immediate post-NAFTA years, manufactures exports to the NAF TA nations as a percen tage of manufactures exports to the FTAA region dipped slightly. Net exports of manufacturi ng goods from the U.S. to the FTAA nations fell between 1989 and 2004 by over $48.2B. This decrease was primarily due to U.S. trade with the NAFTA nations, where net manufacturing exports fell by $47.4B ( 1044%) during this perio d. Manufacturing net exports from the U.S. to the Micro-Economie s fell by $571M (17%), while net manufacturing exports to the Group of Six nations fell by $250M (11%). Chart 11 below, displays net manufacturing exports from the U.S. to the three nation-groups for years 1989-2004. Chart 11 U.S. Net Manufacturin g Exports to FTAA Nation Groups, 1989-2004 $(50,000) $(40,000) $(30,000) $(20,000) $(10,000) $$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Source: Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce(Millions of Nominal Dollars) NAFTA Group of 6 Micro-Economies

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18 U.S. Services Trade, 1986-2003 Trade in services is monitored by the U.S. Bu reau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as part of the construction of the national in come and product accounts. Unlike the data for agricultural and manufacturing trade, the BEA does not report trade of services to the same level of geographic detail, for purposes of maintaining confidentiali ty. The following three tables report exports, imports, and net exports of private services expr essed in nominal dollars between the U.S. and the other nations of the Western Hemisphere.21 We are not able to analyze the services data by three nation-groups as we did for agriculture a nd manufacturing, instead we analyze the data by the NAFTA group and a non-NAFTA group. Chart 12 reports U.S. exports of private services to the FTAA region. In 1986, U.S. exports of private services to the FTAA region exceeded $22.6B. Mexico and Canada accounted for 57.3% of this total. By 2003, exports of private se rvices to the FTAA region from the U.S. increased to $80.3B, with the share going to the non-NAFTA nations rising to 46.1%. Chart 12 U.S. Exports of Private Services to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003$$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,00019 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03Source: U.S. BEA, Balance of Payments Division,Table 2 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) NAFTA Non-NAFTA Chart 13 reports U.S. imports of private services from the FTAA region. In 1986, U.S. imports of private services from the FT AA region exceeded $19.3B. Mexico and Canada accounted for 51.7% of this total. By 2003, imports of private services from the FTAA region to the U.S. increased to $68.1B, with the share going to the non-NAFTA nations rising to 54.7%. 21 Western Hemisphere includes nations not participating in FTAA negotiations. However, these non-participants economies are relatively small, and thus do not greatly influence trade patterns within the Hemisphere.

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19 Chart 13 U.S. Im p orts of Private Services from Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003$$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,0001 98 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 1 99 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 1 99 8 1 99 9 2 00 0 2 00 1 2 00 2 2 00 3Source: U.S. BEA, Balance of Payments Division,Table 2 (Millions of Nominal Dollars ) NAFTA Non-NAFTA Net exports of private services from the U. S. to the FTAA nations rose from 1986 to 2003 by over $8.9B, a 266% increase. This increase wa s due to U.S. trade with the NAFTA nations, where net private service exports rose by $9.4B (316%) during this period. While net exports of private services to Canada rose by $5.4B between 1986 and 2003, net exports of private services to Mexico rose $4.1B. Net exports of private services from the U.S. to the non-NAFTA nations fell by $569M (164%) from 1986 to 2003, although as late as 1998 net exports of private services to the non-NAFTA nations eclipsed $14B. Chart 14 below, displays net exports of private services from the U.S. to the NAFTA and non-NAFTA groups for years 1986-2003. Chart 14 U.S. Net Exports of Private Services to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003$(2,000) $$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,0001986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Source: U.S. BEA, Balance of Payments Division,Table 2(Millions of Nominal Dollars ) NAFTA Non-NAFTA

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20 Intra-Regional Investment, 1982-2002 The following three charts display by na tion group, for years 1982 through 2002, U.S. Direct Investment Abroad (USDIA), Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S. (FDIUS), and the net of USDIA and FDIUS (i.e. balan ce of investment) with the othe r FTAA nations. Data represent investment positions on a nominal cost basis. In 1982, USDIA in the FTAA region exceeded $77.9B. By nation-group, this amount was parsed as follows: Micro-Economies 13.6%, th e Group of Six 24.2%, and the NAFTA groups at 62.3%. By 2002, USDIA in the FTAA region increased to $318B, with the shares going to the Micro-Economies decreasing to 8.7%, and the Group of Six falling to 20.3% at the expense of an increased share to the NAFTA group 71.0%. Shar es of USDIA to FTAA nation groups appear to be more volatile than goods and se rvices trade, as depicted in Chart 15 Chart 15 Composition of USDIA to FTAA Nation Groups, 1982-20020% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002Source: U.S. BEA NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies In 1982, FDIUS from the FTAA region exceeded $14.6B. By nation-group, this amount was parsed as follows: Micro-Economies 16.2% the Group of Six 2.3%, and the NAFTA groups at 81.5%. By 2002, FDIUS from the FTAA region in creased to $116.2B, with the shares going to the Micro-Economies decreasing to 8.5% at the e xpense of increased shares to the Group of Six (5.5%), and the NAFTA group (85.9 %). As the case with USDIA, shares of FDIUS from FTAA nation groups appear to be more volatile than goods and services trade, as depicted in Chart 16

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21 Chart 16 Composition of FDIUS from FTAA Nation Groups, 1982-20020% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002Source: U.S. BEA NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies On balance, the United States has consisten tly carried a positive balance of investment among the three nation groups over the past two d ecades. Given the maturity and competitiveness of the United States economy, U.S owners of capital often lo ok across borders to maximize returns on investment, and also to develop new ma rkets. Developing countri es are a good place to look for investment opportunities. Chart 17 reports for years 1982-2002, net USDIA by nation group. Chart 17 Net USDIA by Nation-Group, 1982-2002$$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,0001 98 2 1 98 3 1 98 4 1 98 5 1 98 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 1 99 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1 99 5 1 99 6 1 99 7 1 99 8 1 99 9 2 00 0 2 00 1 2 00 2Source: U.S. BEAMillions of Nominal Dollars NAFTA Group of Six Micro-Economies

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22 Summary: Baseline Production and Trade in the FTAA Region Production within the FTAA region has steadily risen over the last 20 years, although at a faster pace in the NAFTA nations than in th e other two nation groups. In the FTAA region, smaller economies tend to devote a larger percentage of their economic activit y to agriculture than larger ones. Larger economies produce a greater relative share of services than do smaller ones. Floridas economy, as measured by GSP, grew at a faster pace .55% than the United States as a whole 84.01% from 1981 to 2000, and devotes a greater percentage of its production to the services sector relative to the NAFTA group. Not surprisingly, hemispheric tr ade flows between the U.S. a nd its partner nations appear to be tied to production. As a ma rket, large GDP nations have a larger appetite for U.S. goods and services. Similarly, large GDP nations pr oduce more goods and services for American consumption. Among the potential members of an FTAA, the U.S. conducts the preponderance of its trade with Canada and Mexico, its NAFTA pa rtners. While the NAFTA appears to have had little effect on the U.S. trade balance in agriculture and priv ate services, net exports of manufactures to the NAFTA nations plummeted shortly after its adoption. Examining crossborder investment, we find that th e U.S. invested more resources in FTAA nations than vice-versa for the period 1982-2002. This balance, measured as USDIA minus FDIUS, tripled in nominal terms in the 20-year period 1982-2002. Overall, the U.S. carried a positive trade ba lance with the non-NAFTA western hemisphere nations in 2002 of approximately $79B, although net exports of agriculture products were negative. This is despite the fact that U.S. goods face tariffs in the non-NAFTA portion of the hemisphere whereas hemispheric goods typically enter the U.S. duty free.

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23 Section 3: Potential Impacts: Literature Review Introduction Proponents of free trade agreements argue that a reduction of trade barriers enables a country to utilize their comparativ e advantage to increase their standard of living. However, opponents of free trade agreements make the argume nt that a reduction of trade barriers allows developed countries to exploit developing countries, and causes developed count ries to lose jobs to the developing countries. In the U.S., negotiations over the FTAA have sparked similar debate as to whether the proposed agreement among the 34 count ries will have a positive or negative effect on U.S. trade, employment, and GDP. A glimpse of the potential effects of the FTAA on Florida may be obtained by examining empirical literature on current U.S. free trade ag reements. Particularly, this section summarizes empirical literature that quantifies or predicts the effects of the NAFTA, the DR-CAFTA, and the recently implemented U.S.-Chile Free Trade Ag reement (US-CFTA). The review of NAFTA, DR-CAFTA, and US-CFTA is important to the FT AA because the countries involved within these agreements are included in th e current FTAA negotiations. A key challenge for the researchers is separati ng the effects of trade agreements from other factors that have influenced tr ade including the economic and political climate among the trading partners, technological innovation, a nd an the amount of economic integration among the countries prior to the trade agreement. Ho wever, the empirical literature doe s offer insight into the types of effects, and the magnitude of the effects th e FTAA could potentially have on U.S. imports, exports, employment, and GDP. The first study in the following section estim ates the effects of DR -CAFTA, and the second study examines the early impacts of US-CFTA. The remaining seven studies discuss the NAFTA experience, post-implementation. The trade effects of NAFTA on U. S. and Canadian trade were excluded in six of the seven studi es. These two countries entere d into the United States-Canada Free Trade Agreement in 1988, leavi ng very little restricted trade between the two countries upon the enactment of NAFTA in 1994. Additionally, several of the NAFTA studies estimate the percentage increase in U.S. and Mexico tr ade and U.S. GDP due solely to NAFTA. The Economic Impact of the U.S.-Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on Florida 22 According to Smith (2004), Florida-origin goods in 2003 accounted for over a fifth of all U.S. goods exported to the DR-CAFTA countries with a value of $3.1B, and exports to DRCAFTA countries helped to su stain approximately 65,000 Florida jobs. The implementation of DR-CAFTA would reduce trade ba rriers and tariffs between the United States, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras Nicaragua, and El Salvador. 22 Smith, Mark. 2004. The Economic Impact of the U.S.-Dominican Re public-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on Florida, U.S Chamber of Commerce Western Hemisphere Affairs.

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24 Smith analyzed the potential impacts of DR-CAF TA on the state of Florida in an effort to estimate the increase in jobs, earnings, and out put that would occur upon the implementation of DR-CAFTA. Impacts were estimated using the U.S. Department of Commerces Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Input-Output Mo deling System (RIMS II). Using 2003 baseline export data to DR-CAFTA countries, Smith estimat ed the effects of an increase in output across industries on income and employment. Experi ences from the NAFTA and the US-CFTA were used to make two key assumptions regarding expor t growth. First, Florida exports to the DRCAFTA region are expected to in crease by 17% in the first year. Second, Florida exports to DRCAFTA countries are expected to increase by 91% after nine years. Smith predicts that Floridas output will increase by $958M one year after implementation of DR-CAFTA, and by $5.1B across all industries nine years after implementation. Next, Smith estimates that earnings of employees in Florid a will increase $226M one y ear after implementation of DR-CAFTA, and by $1.2B nine years after imp lementation. Lastly, jobs in Florida are estimated to increase by 6,879 one year after im plementation, and by 36,308 jobs nine years after implementation of DR-CAFTA. Early Effects of the U.S. Chile Free Trade Agreement 23 The U.S. Chile Free Trade Agreement (US CFTA) became effective on January 1, 2004. USCFTA eliminated 90% of the tariffs on U.S. exports to Chile, and on 95% of the tariffs of Chilean exports to the U.S. Chart 18 below displays the quarter ove r quarter increase in exports between the United States and Chile from 2003 to 2004. During the first three months following the implementation of USCFTA U.S. exports to Chile increased 24% to $766.79M. Chilean exports to the United Stat es increased 12.1% during th e same time period to $1.17B. Chart 18 Percentage Increase in Exports Q1-2003 compared to Q1-2004* 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%Percent Increase in Exports U.S. Exports to ChileChilean Exports to the U.S. *US-CFTA entered into force on January 1, 2004. Source: U nited States Trade Representative, 2004. The U.S. Chile Free Trade A greement: An Early Record of Success. 23 United States Trade Reprehensive, 2004. The U.S. Chile Free Trade Agreement: An Early Record of Success.

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25 The Impact of NAFTA on the United States 24 Burfisher, Robinson, and Thierfelder (2001) compare arguments made pre-NAFTA to the post-experience data. They conclude (1) economist s make reasonable forecasts of gains from free trade agreements, (2) regional tr ade liberalization primarily aff ects resource allocation, production and trade patterns as opposed to aggregate trade ba lances, (3) free trade agreements are an impetus for economic structural change, particularly in the labor mark et, and (4) free trade tends to motivate domestic reforms of policies that distort prices. NAFTA and Agriculture, An Early Assessment 25 In this study, one of many reviewed by Burfisher, et al (2001), DeJanvry (1996) uses a regression model to control for the effects of the NAFTA on trade patterns and macroeconomic shocks such as the 1995 peso crisis. The model predicts that without NAFTA U.S. exports to Mexico would have decreased by 28% in 1995 rather than 14%. Additionally, the model predicts that exports to Mexico would ha ve increased by 3% rather than the 19% observed in 1994 without NAFTA, and in 1995 imports would have fallen by 3% ra ther than increase by the 17% observed. Trade Creation and Trad e Diversion Under NAFTA 26 This analysis uses a pooled-time-series-cross-s ection regression to test for the effect of regional trade agreements. Krueger (1999) incl udes 61 countries for six years and many other variables trade values, GDP, popul ation, exchange rates, language, and distance to control for trade effects. The model finds no statistical relationship between incr eased trade and NAFTA countries. However, the study did find that NAF TA countries imported significantly fewer goods from non-NAFTA trading partners since the in ception of NAFTA, suggesting that trade agreements re-distribute, rather than create trade. The U.S. Employment Impacts of North Am erican Integration After NAFTA: A Partial Equilibrium Approach 27 Two of the major findings in this report by Hino josa-Ojeda et al. (2000) support claims that NAFTAs lowering of tariffs had only a slight im pact on trade between the U.S. and Mexico and that trade due to NAFTA had similarly in significant impacts on U.S. employment. While U.S. imports from Mexico experienced an annual growth rate of 20% in the years after NAFTA, compared to the average growth ra te of 6.3% in the thr ee years prior to NAFTA, analysis of U.S.-Mexico trade patt erns indicate that growth in U. S. imports of NAFTA-liberalized 24 Burfisher, M., S. Robinson, and K. Thierfelder. 2001. The Impact of NAFTA on the United States, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15:1 pp. 125-144 25 DeJanvry, A. 1996. NAFTA and Agriculture, An Early Assessment, Working paper no. 807. Gianninni Foundation, University of California, Berkeley, CA. 26 Krueger, A.O. 1999. Trade Creation and Trade Divers ion Under NAFTA, Working Paper 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. 27 Hinojosa-Ojeda, R., D. Runsten, F. Depaolis and N. Kamel. 2000. The U.S. Employment Impacts of North American Integration After NAFTA: A Partial Equilibrium Approach, unpublished manuscript, North American Integration and Development Center, Sc hool of Public Policy and Social Research, UCLA Los Angeles, CA.

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26 commodities from Mexico occurred at a slower rate than growth in imports of commodities from Mexico not affected by NAFTA liber alization, therefore s uggesting that the increased growth rate of U.S. imports from Mexico, post-NAFTA, may be at tributed to other events of the time such as the peso crisis and ongoing bi-n ational industrial integration. The authors used a partial e quilibrium model to present re sults regarding potential job impacts. Total estimated potential job impact in the U.S. due to imports from Mexico, from 1990 to 1997, would be 299,000 and about 458,000 due to impor ts from Canada during that same time. Breaking this down to an annual figure implies th at Mexican and Canadian trade with the U.S. impacts an average of 37,000 and 57,000 U.S. jobs respectively, a relativel y insignificant amount when compared to the average of 2.4M jobs annually created in the U.S during that period. Effects of North American Free Trade Agr eement on Agriculture and the Rural Economy 28 The U.S. Department of Agriculture ( 2002) used economic models and expert assessments by commodity trade specialists to examine NAFTAs trade impact on 38 commodities or commodity groupings. Similar to other Krueger (1999), the study found that NAFTA had little to no effect on th e majority of the commodities. However, for a select group of commodities NAFTA had significant and positive effect on trade with the U.S. Table 4 is a summary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study, which reports the estimated change in trade volume between the U.S. and Mexico due solely to NAFTA by selected commodity from 1994 2000. Additionall y, Table 4 reports the pre-NAFTA tariff that was eliminated when NAFTA was implemented. With respect to U.S. exports to Mexico, six individual commodities increased by more than 15 % because of NAFTA. With respect to U.S. imports from Mexico, only 3 commodities incr eased by more than 15% because of NAFTA. Lastly, the study examined NAFTAs effect of FDI and U.S. employment and found small positive effects in FDI and employment directly related to NAFTA Table 4 NAFTA Effects on U.S. and Mexic o Trade Volume by Selected Commodities 1994 2000 Estimated Change in Trade Volume Due Solely Selected Commodities Pre NAFTA Tariff U.S. Exports to Mexico to NAFTA Rice 10% on rough and broken rice, and 20% on milled rice. >15% Dairy Products Import licenses requirements, and zero to 20% on dairy products. >15% Cotton 10% tariff to be phased out over a 9 year-period. >15% Processed Potatoes 15% on frozen potatoes and 20% on dried. >15% Fresh Apples 20% tariff on fresh apples. >15% Fresh Pairs 20% tariff on fresh pairs. >15% Corn Import license requirement removed an d elimination of price support. 6% to 15% Oil Seeds 15% phased out over a 9 year-period 6% to 15% 28 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2002 Effects of North American Free Trad e Agreement on Agriculture and the Rural Economy. WRS-02-01. Washington, DC.

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27 Table 4 Continued Beef and Veal 20% on fresh beef/veal and 25% on frozen beef/veal. 6% to 15% Sorghum 15% seasonal tariff immediately removed. (>-15%) Wheat Products 0.77 cents per kilogram on non-durham phased out in 4 years, and durham phased out over 10 years. >15% Cattle and Calves 2.2 cents per kilogram on non-dairy and non-purebred cattle. >15% Peanuts Section 22 quotas were replaced with Tariff Rate Quotas starting at 3,377 metric tons in 1994, and increase by 3% each year until phased out in 2008. >15% Sugar 0.66 cents per pound. >15% Fresh Tomatoes 3.3 or 4.6 per kilogram. 6% to 15% Processed Tomatoes 7.5% to 14.7% per kilogram. 6% to 15% Cantaloupe 20% to 35% tariff rate depending on the season. 6% to 15% Source: USDA Has NAFTA Changed North American Trade? 29 Using a gravity model, Gould (1998) uses quarterly data from 1980 to 1996 from NAFTA countries to estimate the effects of NAFTA on bilate ral trade flows. The st udy finds a statistically significant relationship between Mexi co and the U.S. with respect to U.S. exports. Hence, U.S. exports to Mexico have grown faster than would have been expected had NAFTA not been implemented. With NAFTA, U.S. export growth is 16.3% hi gher per year on average, which is the equivalent to an increase in exports worth $21.3B Additionally, Gould finds that U.S. imports from Mexico increased by 16.2% per year on av erage or about $20.5B in additional imports. However, the statistical significance is only ma rginal, which implies trade without NAFTA could have resulted in the same increas e in imports. Gould finds no rela tionship between Canada and the U.S. with respect to imports and exports, but th is is not surprising sinc e the U.S. and Canada negotiated a free trade agreement five years befo re the implementation of NAFTA. Lastly, Gould concludes that NAFTA was trade creating, in that trad e with non-NAFTA countries increased after the implementation of NAFTA. This contra sts with the findings of Krueger (1999). The Impact of NAFTA on the U.S. Econom y and Industries: A Three-Year Review 30 The International Trade Commission (ITC) used a regression model to study the effects of NAFTA on U.S. and Mexico. The ITC estimates th at NAFTA increased U.S. exports to Mexico by 1.3% in 1994, 3.9% in 1995, and by 2.9% in 1996. Additionally, the ITC study reports that U.S. imports from Mexico increased by 1.0%, 4.9%, and 6.4% for 1994, 1995, and 1996. Thus, trade between the U.S. and Mexico increased due to NAFTA. 29 Gould, D. 1998. Has NAFTA Changed North American Trade? Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, First Quarter, pp. 12-23. 30 International Trade Commission Report on NAFTA, 1997. The Impact of the NAFTA on the U.S. Economy and Industries: A Three-Year Review, Publication No. 3045

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28 The Effects of NAFTA U.S.-Mexican Trade and GDP 31 The Congressional Budget Offices (CBO) repor t estimates the effects of NAFTA on U.S Gross Domestic Product (GDP), U. S. Exports to Mexico, and U.S. Imports from Mexico for the time period of 1994 2001. The CBO, similar to Gould (1998) and the ITC (1997), used multiple regression analysis to isolate the effects of trad e due solely to NAFTA. The CBO used quarterly data from 1969 through 2001 to model U.S.-Mexican trade. The CBO import model excluded crude oil imports due to signifi cant variations over time with respect to other imports. First, models were estimated to predict wh at trade and U.S. GDP would have been if NAFTA had not been implemented in 1994. The without-NAFTA model assumed that tariffs would remain at 1993 levels through 2001. Next, NAFTA models were estimated, which added a dummy variable to the regression to capture th e effects of the tariff provisions of NAFTA. The effects were calculated as the difference, averag ed year by year, between the NAFTA model and the without-NAFTA model. The CBO finds that the effect of NAFTA on U.S. exports to Mexico was larger than the effect NAFTA had on U.S. imports from Mexico. According to the CBO, NAFTA increased U.S. exports to Mexico by 2.2% in 1994, but this figure rose to 11.3% by 2001. With respect to U.S. imports from Mexico, the CBO finds that NAF TA increased imports by 1.9% in 1994 and by 7.7% in 2001. These results are in line with the ITC st udy, and in the same direction, but generally more subdued than the findings of Gould. According to the CBO, the effects of NAFTA on U.S. exports to Mexico, Mexico exports to the U.S., and U.S. GDP are increasing with time This gradual increase in gains from NAFTA is expected given that all tari ffs are not scheduled to be phase d out until 2008. For example, the average U.S. tariff rate on total goods imported fr om Mexico fell from 2.0% in 1993 to about 0.2% in 2001 while the average Mexican tariff rate fell from 10.3% in 1993 to about 0.2% in 2001. Summary The North American Free Trade Agreemen t (NAFTA) was implemented on January 1, 1994 between the United States, Canada, and Mexic o. NAFTA called for th e elimination of all trade restrictions over a 10 to 15year period. Since the implementation of NAFTA, a handful of empirical studies have attempted to measure the effects of NAFTA on U.S. imports, exports, employment, and GDP. All the studies point out that the main effects of NAFTA would come from the elimination of trade barriers between the Mexi co and the U.S., and Mexico and Canada. Prior to NAFTA, the U.S. and Canada had already ma de significant progress in eliminating trade barriers with the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement.32 Table 5, below, summarizes the effects of NAF TA on U.S. and Mexico trade and U.S. GDP based on studies by the CBO, ITC, and Goul d. The percentages are reported as year over year increases due solely to NAFTA. 31 Congressional Budget Office, 2003. The Effect s of NAFTA on U.S.-Mex ican Trade and GDP. 32 The Canada-United States Free Trad e Agreement was enacted in 1988.

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29 Table 5 Summary of Effects of NAFTA on U.S. and Mexico Trade Year Over Year Year Over Year Percent Increase in Percent Increase in Percentage Increase U.S. Exports to Mexico U.S. Imports from Mexicoin U.S. GDP (CBO) Study CBO ITC Gould CBO ITC Gould Exports Imports 1994 2.2% 1.3% 16.3% 1.9% 1.0% 16.2% 0.02% 0.01% 1995 4.7% 3.9% 16.3% 4.9% 5.7% 16.2% 0.03% 0.04% 1996 7.2% 2.9% 16.3% 6.1% 6.4% 16.2% 0.05% 0.06% 1997 8.6% ----6.8% ----0.07% 0.07% 1998 9.5% ----7.2% ----0.09% 0.08% 1999 10.8% ----7.4% ----0.10% 0.09% 2000 10.3% ----7.2% ----0.12% 0.11% 2001 11.3% ----7.7% ----0.12% 0.11% The studies reviewed in Table 5 vary in their estimates of the effect of NAFTA on U.S. exports to Mexico and U.S. imports from Mexico, but the overall consensus of the three studies is that the effects of NAFTA have been positive with respect to U.S. and Mexico trade and with respect to U.S. GDP. All three U.S.-Mexico studies cite that the phase out period of tariffs is crucial to understanding the potential effects of NAFTA. The literature indicates that the low pre-NAFTA U.S. tariff rates on imported goods from Mexico are the factor that explai ns the relatively low increase in Mexican imports to the U.S. Conve rsely, the elimination or lowering of high preNAFTA tariffs imposed on U.S. goods by Mexico c ontributed to the increase in U.S. exports to Mexico. In conclusion, NAFTA has had a positive effect on U.S. and Mexico trade, but not the heavy negative or positive effects critics and pr oponents predicted it w ould have prior to its implementation. Year

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30 Section 4: Potential Impacts: Economic Modeling In this section, we use two computer mode ls, IMPLAN and REMI, to estimate the potential effects of an FTAA on the state of Florida. We report economic effects in terms of employment, output and gross state product. Employment refers to jobs (not workers as a worker may hold more than one job), output is defined as sales adjusted for inventory, and gross state product is output minus inputs and can also be thought of as compensation and profit. These three variables are interrelated descriptors of the same econo my, much as mass, volume and density each can describe a solid. Appendices C and D respectively, contain descri ptions of the IMPLAN and REMI models. Our estimation approach is two-fold. The REMI model, while highly complex and considered the pre-eminent economic modeling so ftware, does not include import and export cost variables for the primary agricultu re sub-sectors. So we first use the IMPLAN model to estimate the direct net employment effect of an FTAA on NAICS subsectors 111 (Crop Production) and 112 (Animal Production). We then enter the estimated direct net employment effect of an FTAA concomitantly with a reduction of export and import costs thus simulating reduction of tariffs for the manufacturing sectors of the economy into the REMI model. Additionally, we also provide estimates of the economic effects of an FTAA sh ould the tariffs be reduced by 50%, i.e. partial implementation. Direct Employment Effect of an FTAA on Agriculture Sector Here we utilize the IMPLAN model to estimate the potential direct em ployment effect of an FTAA on NAICS sub-sector s 111 (Crop Production) and 1 12 (Animal Production). To estimate the direct employment effects of an FTAA, we introduce to the model the estimated change in output an FTAA would have on the Crop Production and Animal Production industries. These estimates, taken from a USDA report, are shown in Table 6 .33 Table 6 Effects of the FTAA on U.S. Agricultural Production, by Commodity Commodity Real Change in Output (%) Rice 3.2 Wheat 0.0 Other Grains -0.5 Horticulture 0.0 Oilseeds 0.4 Other Crops -0.6 Livestock -0.4 Raw Milk 0.1 Meat -0.3 Dairy Products 0.1 Source: Economic Res earch Service, USDA 33 Burfisher (2004)

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31 We assume that the effects of an FTAA on Fl orida would mirror these national effects, and fit these commodities into their corresponding IMPLAN sectors, weighting by production when two or more commodities fit into a single IMPLAN sector. Table 7 displays the calculated percent changes in output for the IMPLAN sectors Table 7 Percent Change in Output by IMPLAN Sector IMPLAN Sector Commodity(ies) NAICS Sub-Sector % Change in Output 1 Oilseeds 111 -.4000% 2 Rice, Other Grains 111 -.0714% 10 Other Crops 111 -.6000% 11 Livestock, Raw Milk, Dairy Products 112 -.0749% 12 Meat 112 -.3000% 13 Meat, Livestock 112 -.3500% We then enter the percent changes in output into the IMPLAN model. Table 8 reports the estimated direct net employment effect of an FTAA on Floridas crop and animal production subsector. Table 8 Estimated Direct Net Employment Effects of an FTAA of Florida Agriculture Sub-Sector Jobs Crop Production (NAICS Sub-Sector 111) -0.3 Animal Production (NAICS Sub-Sector 112) -29.6 Total 111 and 112 -29.9 The Department of Agricultures report doe s not nationally predict the FTAAs effect on NAICS industries 11131 (Orange Groves) and 111 32 (Citrus except Orange Groves) or 11193 (Sugarcane Farming). Hor ticulture the category that includes citrus is not predicted to be affected in the aggregate by the FTAA. However, the effects on citrus juices and processed sugar are included within the results for the manufact uring sector on the following pages, where we model the effects of regional tariff elimination fo r processed foods. Additionally, for sensitivity analysis we present in Appendix B the estimate d economic effects of a 0.6% output reduction the maximum reduction shown in Table 6 on Florid as citrus and sugar cane industries. The economic effects of this alternate scenario do not differ greatly from our primary scenario. Economic Impact of an FTAA Tariff Changes Here we utilize the REMI model to estimat e the total economic effects of an FTAA on Floridas economy. We introduce to the model the direct employment effects generated by the IMPLAN model and concomitantly adjust the For eign Export Costs (Share) and Foreign Import Costs (Share) on other industries to simu late the economic effects of an FTAA.

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32 Because the Foreign Export Costs (Share) and Foreign Import Costs (Share) represent global trade and not just trade with the FTAA nations, we must scale the variables by Floridas trade with the FTAA nations, less trade with the NAFTA nations, as a share of global trade. Because the FTAA seeks to model itself after th e NAFTA, we assume that an FTAA would have no effect on the residual tariffs on trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Table 9 reports, for year 2004, the share by NAICS sub-sector of Floridas global exports to the 31 non-NAFTA FTAA nations, the average appl ied tariff, and in the right-most column, the product of the share and the tariff. This is the amount by which we will reduce Foreign Export Costs (Share) in the REMI model. Table 9 Foreign Export Cost Reduction Calculation REMI Sectors Item Share of FL ExportsTariff Tariff x Share 1 113 & 114 Forestry and Fishing, et al 17.54%1.99%0.35% 3 211 Oil & Gas Extraction 71.45%1.99%1.42% 4 212 Mining 21.72%1.99%0.43% 19 311 Processed Foods 37.08%17.13%6.35% 20 312 Beverage & Tobacco Products 31.95%17.13%5.47% 21 313 Fabric Mill Products 95.26%18.03%17.17% 22 314 Non-Apparel Textile Products 64.41%18.03%11.61% 23 315 Apparel Manufactures 73.76%19.36%14.28% 24 316 Leather & Related Products 26.36%19.08%5.03% 8 321 Wood Products 67.64%12.11%8.19% 25 322 Paper Products 38.75%12.11%4.69% 26 323 Printing & Related Products 38.13%12.11%4.62% 27 324 Petroleum & Coal Products 65.85%9.06%5.97% 28 325 Chemical Manufactures 38.23%9.06%3.46% 29 326 Plastic & Rubber Products 51.98%9.06%4.71% 9 327 Non-Metallic Mineral Manufactures 59.81%12.11%7.24% 10 331 Primary Metal Manufactures 30.65%10.79%3.31% 11 332 Fabricated Metal Products 54.47%12.11%6.60% 12 333 Machinery Manufactures 61.75%10.37%6.40% 13 334 Computers & Electronic Prod. 56.61%10.52%5.96% 14 335 Elec. Eq.; Appliances & Parts 53.69%10.52%5.65% 15 & 16 336 Transportation Equipment 40.71%see below 17 337 Furniture & Related Products 56.97%12.11%6.90% 18 339 Misc. Manufactures 34.80%12.11%4.21% 40 511 Publishing Industries 50.05%12.11%6.06% 30 910 Waste & Scrap 10.23%see below 30 920 Used Merchandise 19.36%see below 30 990 Special Classification Provisions 51.23%see below Note: REMI variable 15 is motor vehicles only. In 2004 15.5% FL exports of Trans. Equip. were motor vehicles. Items 910, 920, and 990 were weighted by trade and assigned to the Wholesale Trade sector. 15 Motor Vehicles 6.31%21.78%1.37% 16 Transportation Equipment ex. Motor Vehicles 34.40%12.11%4.17% 30 Wholesale Trade 5.73%12.11%0.69%

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33 To reduce import costs in the model, we use estimates published by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM ). The NAM, in a 2005 publicati on, states that the average applied industrial tariff imposed by the U.S. on goods from Latin American countries is 3.7%.34 We scaled this figure by the share of U.S. impor ts from FTAA countries (less U.S. imports from NAFTA countries) relative to wo rld imports to the U.S. Inhe rent to this methodology is the assumption that Floridas appetite for imports mirror s the nations. Table 10 reports, for year 2004, the share by NAICS sub-sector of Floridas imports from the 31 non-NAFTA FTAA nations, the average applie d tariff, and in the right-most column, the product of the share and the tariff. This is the amount by which we will reduce Foreign Import Costs (Share) in the REMI model. Table 10 Foreign Import Cost Reduction Calculation REMI Sectors Item Share of US ExportsTariff Tariff x Share 1 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 26.99%3.70% 1.00% 3, 4 21 Mining 18.51%3.70% 0.69% 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 31 Manufacturing; Part 1 11.48%3.70% 0.42% 8, 9, 25, 26 27, 28, 29 32 Manufacturing; Part 2 7.17%3.70% 0.27% 10, 11, 12, 13 14, 15, 16, 17 18 33 Manufacturing; Part 3 2.53%3.70% 0.09% 40 51 Information 0.22%3.70% 0.01% 30 910 Waste & Scrap 10.23%see below 30 920 Used Merchandise 1.28%see below 30 990 Special Classification Provisions 3.21%see below Note: Items 910, 920, and 990 were weighted by trade and assigned to the Wholesale Trade sector. 30 Wholesale Trade 3.58%3.70% 0.13% Comparison of the export and import cost re ductions shows that the U.S. faces higher tariffs on its exported goods than it imposes on FTAA goods entering the country. This is consistent with the practice of protective tariffs. Smaller economies generally will have larger tariffs than large economies to protect their industri es from foreign competition. We also note here that we do not adjust import or exports costs for se rvices or investment, as no tariffs exist for these types of trade, per se. 34 To the Point: Talking Points for Manufacturers. (2005). Retrieved April 1, 2005, from http://nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?CID=14&DID=233610

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34 Economic Impact of an FTAA Employment We report estimated employment change s due to enactment of an FTAA in Table 11 Predictive results are presented by NAICS s ub-sector for years 2006 and 2015. The values reported are differences from Flor idas baseline economic forecast. Table 11 Estimated Employment Effects Reduction of Export and Import Tariffs Full Implementation NAICS Sector Name 2006 2015 11 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing 11.39 33.49 21 Mining 12.29 19.27 22 Utilities 85.03 107.60 23 Construction 1,622.00 2,799.00 31-33 Manufacturing 8,602.65 9,320.21 42 Wholesale Trade 1,780.00 2,235.00 44-45 Retail Trade 2,354.00 2,999.00 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 554.86 727.55 51 Information 705.89 983.51 52 Finance and Insurance 940.30 1,077.60 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 503.40 845.80 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,814.00 2,754.00 55 Management of Companies, Enterprises 430.80 510.80 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,436.69 2,014.90 61 Educational Services 276.10 337.60 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 547.93 993.60 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 357.39 427.79 72 Accommodation and Food Services 1,392.10 1,735.40 81 Other Services (Except Public Administration) 1,260.60 1,564.10 92 Public Administration 286.30 1,997.00 Total Employment 24,973.72 33,483.22 We predict that in the first year of FT AA implementation, almost 25,000 new jobs will be created in Florida. In terms of absolute jobs created by full enactment of an FTAA, the Manufacturing sectors (NAICS 31-33) are projected to receive the prepon derance of new jobs, approximately 1/3 of the total. Even with a direct loss of an imal and crop production jobs, the Agriculture Sector receives a net bene fit of jobs from FTAA implementation. Panel A of

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35 Appendix E presents detailed employment results for 68 industry sub sectors for all years 20062015. Economic Impact of an FTAA Output We report estimated changes in outpu t due to enactment of an FTAA in Table 12 Predictive results are presented by NAICS sector for years 2006 and 2015. The values reported are differences from Floridas baseline economic fore cast. We report output changes for the private, non-farm sectors of the economy. Table 12 Estimated Output Effects (Bil. 96$) Reduction of Export and Import Tariffs Full Implementation NAICS Sector Name 2006 2015 11 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing $ 0.003 $ 0.007 21 Mining $ 0.002 $ 0.003 22 Utilities $ 0.035 $ 0.053 23 Construction $ 0.122 $ 0.232 31-33 Manufacturing $ 2.761 $ 5.273 42 Wholesale Trade $ 0.347 $ 0.630 44-45 Retail Trade $ 0.160 $ 0.267 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing $ 0.060 $ 0.099 51 Information $ 0.153 $ 0.294 52 Finance and Insurance $ 0.182 $ 0.275 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $ 0.125 $ 0.261 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $ 0.166 $ 0.310 55 Management of Companies, Enterprises $ 0.120 $ 0.193 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services $ 0.079 $ 0.131 61 Educational Services $ 0.011 $ 0.013 62 Health Care and Social Assistance $ 0.029 $ 0.065 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $ 0.022 $ 0.030 72 Accommodation and Food Services $ 0.065 $ 0.093 81 Other Services (Except Public Administration) $ 0.060 $ 0.089 Total Output (Private, Non-Farm) $ 4.501 $ 8.319 We predict that in the first year of FTAA implementation, more than $4.5B (1996$) of new output will be created in Florid a. The lions share of this out put $2.7B (1996$) will emanate from the Manufacturing sectors. The Finance and Insurance, along with the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sectors will enjoy the next largest increases in output. By the 10th year, we predict the FTAA will create $8.319B in extra output for Floridas economy. Panel B of Appendix E presents detailed output changes for 68 industry sub sectors for all years 20062015.

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36 Economic Impact of an FTAA Gross State Product We report estimated changes in gross state pr oduct (GSP) due to enactment of an FTAA in Table 13 Predictive results are presented by NAICS sector for years 2006 and 2015. The values reported are differences from Flor idas baseline economic forecast. Table 13 Estimated GSP Effects (Bil. 96$) Reduction of Export and Import Tariffs Full Implementation NAICS Sector Name 2006 2015 11 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing* $ (0.002) $ (0.002) 21 Mining $ 0.001 $ 0.001 22 Utilities $ 0.020 $ 0.031 23 Construction $ 0.056 $ 0.111 31-33 Manufacturing $ 1.138 $ 2.780 42 Wholesale Trade $ 0.220 $ 0.404 44-45 Retail Trade $ 0.092 $ 0.155 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing $ 0.028 $ 0.050 51 Information $ 0.089 $ 0.178 52 Finance and Insurance $ 0.111 $ 0.170 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $ 0.094 $ 0.199 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services $ 0.114 $ 0.214 55 Management of Companies, Enterprises $ 0.085 $ 0.137 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services $ 0.055 $ 0.094 61 Educational Services $ 0.006 $ 0.008 62 Health Care and Social Assistance $ 0.016 $ 0.042 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $ 0.012 $ 0.018 72 Accommodation and Food Services $ 0.035 $ 0.050 81 Other Services (Except Public Administration) $ 0.036 $ 0.055 92 Public Administration $ 0.017 $ 0.125 Total Gross State Product $ 2.223 $ 4.820 Includes Imputed Farm Product We estimate that the enactment of an FT AA will generate $2.223B (1996$) of new GSP. Again, the Manufacturing sector is predicted to experience the gr eatest gain $1.138B (1996$). The Agriculture sector declines as a result of the FTAA by roughly $2M. Close examination of the Agriculture sub-sectors reveals th at the decrease in Farm product offsets gains to the other subsectors. By the 10th year, we predict the FTAA will a tota l of $4.82B (1996$) in extra product for

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37 Floridas economy. Panel C of Appendix E presents detailed GSP changes for 68 industry subsectors for all years 2006-2015. Economic Impact of an FTAA Summary Using estimates of output change from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, we estimate a very minor direct loss of jobs 30 in the animal and crop production s ub-sectors of Floridas economy. Of these, the bulk of job loss will be borne by animal production workers. The USDA estimates predict no change in output for citrus growers. Table 14 presents a summary of estimated economic effects due to the enactment of an FTAA. We present the absolute differences, as we ll as the percentage differences, from Floridas forecasted economic baseline. Table 14 Summary of Economic Effects Reduction of Export and Import Tariffs Full Implementation 2006 2015 Employment 24,973.72 0.26% 33,483.22 0.31% Output (Bil. 96$) $ 4.501 0.52% $ 8.319 0.69% GSP (Bil. 96$) $ 2.223 0.39% $ 4.820 0.59% By modeling the elimination of tariffs on manuf actured goods, we predict that enactment of an FTAA would add in the firs t year almost 25,000 new jobs to Floridas economy, $4.5B (1996$) in output (sales), and $2.2B (also 1996$) to GSP. These effects represent 0.26%, 0.52%, and 0.39% increases, respectively, over the baseline economic forecast. By the tenth year of enactment, these percentages increase, indicating that the economic effects of free trade gain steam over time. For the purpose of sensitivity analysis, Table P14 reports the percentage difference between full implementation of an FTAA and pa rtial implementation. We define partial implementation as a 50% reduction of examin ed tariffs between the U.S. and an FTAA. Table P14 Difference in Estimates Percentage Difference Between Full and Partial Implementation 2006 2015 Employment 51.38% 51.13% Output (Bil. 96$) 51.53% 51.46% GSP (Bil. 96$) 51.42% 51.45% The data indicates that full reduction of tari ffs between the U.S. and its prospective FTAA partners provides higher margin al economic benefits than part ial reduction. Detailed tables describing the effect of partial implem entation of an FTAA are contained in Panels A through C of Appendix F

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38 Section 5: Conclusions Given its proximity, it is logical that the Cent ral and South American nations are Floridas largest trading partners for goods. Common time zones between North and South America also give services trade a competitive advantage between the two regions, vis--vis the rest of the world. Based on the U.S. experience post-NAFTA the enactment of an FTAA would further increase trade between the U.S. and its hemispheric neighbors. The FTAA, which if enacted would become the worlds largest free trade area in the world, would have a positive effect on Floridas em ployment, output, and GSP. Although tens of thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars of output and product are la rge effects, in relative terms these indicators would increase by no more th an 7/10 of one percent in the event of a full enactment of the FTAA. Our estimates are in th e same direction, but generally more subdued than, other reports. We believe our inclus ion of import effects accounts for this. There are opportunities for further research. New research with more definitive countryspecific and product-specific tariffs can increase the precision of economic impact estimates. Precision may also be enhanced by generating USDA-like estimates for changes in levels of agricultural especially citrus and sugar outputs due to FTAA for the state of Florida. For this research, we lacked data for im ports for consumption in Florida from FTAA countries, although aggregate data on nationwide impor ts is available. Generating definitive data on imports for consumption in Florida would obviat e our assumption that Fl oridas appetite for imports mirrors the nations. Additionally, quantifying the di rect effects of an FTAA on se rvices trade tourism is a multi-billion dollar industry in Florida is need ed for a more complete understanding of the economic effects of this proposed trade agreement.

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39 Appendix A Production and Trade Data Table of Contents Gross Domestic Product for FTAA Nations, 1981-2000.. 40 Agricultural Value-Added as a % of National Economy.. 43 Industrial Value-Added as a % of National Economy.. 44 Value-Added from Services as a % of National Economy... 45 U.S. Agricultural Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004 46 U.S. Agricultural Imports from Individual Countries, 1989-2004... 48 U.S. Agricultural Net Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004. 50 U.S. Exports of Manufactures to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004.. 52 U.S. Imports of Manufactures from FTAA Nations, 1989-2004. 54 U.S. Net Exports of Manufact ures to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004... 56 U.S. Exports of Private Services to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003.. 58 U.S. Imports of Private Services fr om the Western Hemisphere, 19862003. 59 U.S. Net Exports of Private Servi ces to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003... 60 USDIA in FTAA Nations, 1982-2002.. 61 FDIUS from FTAA Nations, 1982-2002.. 64 USDIA Net of FDIUS fo r FTAA Nations, 1982-2002. 67

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40 Gross Domestic Product for FTAA Nations, 1981-2000 (Billions of 1996 Dollars) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Antigua and Barbuda $ 0.48 $ 0.51 $ 0.60 $ 0.62 $ 0.65 $ 0.70 $ 0 .68 Argentina $ 282.32 $ 258.71 $ 267.97 $ 276.88 $ 262.30 $ 279.52 $ 287.74 Bahamas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Barbados $ 2.25 $ 2.38 $ 2.35 $ 2.46 $ 2.59 $ 2.97 $ 3.38 Belize $ 0.71 $ 0.74 $ 0.73 $ 0.71 $ 0.73 $ 0.77 $ 0.83 Bolivia $ 16.46 $ 15.98 $ 15.23 $ 15.31 $ 14.98 $ 14.36 $ 14.65 Brazil $ 741.64 $ 752.30 $ 736.80 $ 776.09 $ 832.70 $ 891.73 $ 924.84 Canada $ 484.54 $ 462.86 $ 477.68 $ 509.38 $ 535.04 $ 548.39 $ 574.48 Chile $ 63.17 $ 56.46 $ 54.25 $ 57.91 $ 60.30 $ 63.19 $ 66.53 Colombia $ 125.24 $ 126.45 $ 128.09 $ 132.73 $ 137.67 $ 144.99 $ 153.21 Costa Rica $ 11.88 $ 11.06 $ 11.33 $ 12.11 $ 12.31 $ 12.88 $ 13.32 Dominica $ 0.30 $ 0.33 $ 0.34 $ 0.34 $ 0.35 $ 0.39 $ 0.41 Dominican Republic $ 17.93 $ 18.65 $ 19.38 $ 19.41 $ 19.75 $ 20.49 $ 21.34 Ecuador $ 34.60 $ 35.04 $ 33.82 $ 34.71 $ 35.69 $ 36.53 $ 34.68 El Salvador $ 17.32 $ 16.30 $ 16.65 $ 16.95 $ 17.24 $ 17.20 $ 17.67 Grenada $ 0.26 $ 0.27 $ 0.28 $ 0.31 $ 0.34 $ 0.35 $ 0.39 Guatemala $ 27.85 $ 27.61 $ 27.49 $ 27.49 $ 27.71 $ 28.07 $ 28.27 Guyana $ 2.24 $ 1.98 $ 1.88 $ 1.74 $ 1.79 $ 1.87 $ 1.90 Haiti $ 5.78 $ 5.58 $ 5.59 $ 5.58 $ 5.64 $ 5.61 $ 5.52 Honduras $ 8.74 $ 9.10 $ 8.96 $ 9.03 $ 9.49 $ 9.72 $ 10.17 Jamaica $ 7.46 $ 7.44 $ 7.64 $ 7.72 $ 7.64 $ 7.80 $ 8.61 Mexico $ 544.05 $ 550.96 $ 535.95 $ 554.99 $ 568.22 $ 552.38 $ 559.90 Nicaragua $ 9.10 $ 9.57 $ 10.20 $ 10.37 $ 10.09 $ 10.21 $ 10.23 Panama $ 11.17 $ 11.86 $ 11.68 $ 11.95 $ 12.75 $ 13.05 $ 12.72 Paraguay $ 15.06 $ 15.14 $ 15.23 $ 15.08 $ 15.66 $ 15.93 $ 16.51 Peru $ 90.76 $ 90.61 $ 81.28 $ 83.40 $ 85.43 $ 95.11 $ 103.93 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 0.25 $ 0.23 $ 0.22 $ 0.26 $ 0.27 $ 0.29 $ 0.3 0 St. Lucia $ 0.39 $ 0.35 $ 0.38 $ 0.47 $ 0.43 $ 0.50 $ 0.51 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 0.36 $ 0.38 $ 0.41 $ 0.44 $ 0.45 $ 0.47 $ 0.48 Suriname N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Trinidad & Tobago $ 11.17 $ 12.27 $ 11.72 $ 12.91 $ 11.62 $ 11.13 $ 11.28 Uruguay $ 23.59 $ 21.37 $ 18.86 $ 18.46 $ 18.65 $ 20.56 $ 22.57 United States $ 5,007.77 $ 4,862.39 $ 5,071.09 $ 5,475.67 $ 5,665.02 $ 5,819.56 $ 6,031.67 Venezuela $ 118.77 $ 115.38 $ 118.01 $ 116.05 $ 116.57 $ 124.07 $ 128.09 FTAA Total* $ 7,683.60 $ 7,500.27 $ 7,692.11 $ 8,207.53 $ 8,490.09 $ 8,750.80 $ 9,066.79

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41 Gross Domestic Product for FTAA Nations, 1981-2000 (Contd) (Billions of 1996 Dollars) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Antigua and Barbuda $ 0.77 $ 0.80 $ 0.83 $ 0.81 $ 0.84 $ 0.87 $ 0 .93 Argentina $ 270.99 $ 246.78 $ 235.40 $ 261.44 $ 295.22 $ 345.12 $ 364.73 Bahamas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Barbados $ 3.52 $ 3.63 $ 3.46 $ 3.46 $ 3.54 $ 3.48 $ 3.60 Belize $ 0.87 $ 0.96 $ 1.06 $ 1.07 $ 1.19 $ 1.23 $ 1.30 Bolivia $ 14.96 $ 15.55 $ 16.09 $ 16.70 $ 16.97 $ 17.71 $ 18.61 Brazil $ 924.99 $ 956.07 $ 919.04 $ 935.32 $ 927.17 $ 975.40 $ 1,033.53 Canada $ 605.51 $ 621.81 $ 618.65 $ 601.27 $ 604.94 $ 620.36 $ 653.56 Chile $ 71.03 $ 78.20 $ 80.58 $ 86.79 $ 97.00 $ 103.60 $ 109.71 Colombia $ 158.87 $ 165.41 $ 172.77 $ 177.77 $ 184.10 $ 190.79 $ 200.69 Costa Rica $ 13.72 $ 14.34 $ 14.79 $ 14.93 $ 15.84 $ 16.79 $ 17.40 Dominica $ 0.42 $ 0.40 $ 0.42 $ 0.45 $ 0.46 $ 0.48 $ 0.48 Dominican Republic $ 22.40 $ 23.08 $ 22.44 $ 22.76 $ 24.17 $ 25.57 $ 27.24 Ecuador $ 37.95 $ 37.80 $ 38.76 $ 40.34 $ 41.33 $ 41.99 $ 43.50 El Salvador $ 17.88 $ 17.79 $ 18.03 $ 18.54 $ 19.64 $ 21.03 $ 22.22 Grenada $ 0.40 $ 0.43 $ 0.44 $ 0.45 $ 0.46 $ 0.44 $ 0.44 Guatemala $ 29.44 $ 30.58 $ 31.49 $ 32.41 $ 33.04 $ 34.52 $ 35.92 Guyana $ 1.96 $ 1.68 $ 1.67 $ 2.00 $ 1.80 $ 1.84 $ 2.15 Haiti $ 5.59 $ 5.37 $ 5.59 $ 6.35 $ 5.82 $ 5.78 $ 7.17 Honduras $ 10.37 $ 10.94 $ 10.86 $ 10.83 $ 11.41 $ 11.56 $ 11.05 Jamaica $ 8.80 $ 9.25 $ 9.91 $ 9.56 $ 9.38 $ 9.29 $ 9.46 Mexico $ 549.12 $ 572.92 $ 600.15 $ 624.19 $ 643.32 $ 656.47 $ 683.10 Nicaragua $ 8.51 $ 8.25 $ 8.54 $ 8.07 $ 7.92 $ 7.98 $ 7.95 Panama $ 11.34 $ 11.53 $ 12.00 $ 13.17 $ 13.83 $ 14.41 $ 14.65 Paraguay $ 18.02 $ 19.88 $ 20.95 $ 21.51 $ 22.21 $ 23.56 $ 23.74 Peru $ 94.92 $ 81.14 $ 77.36 $ 82.75 $ 81.57 $ 86.24 $ 96.43 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 0.28 $ 0.30 $ 0.33 $ 0.36 $ 0.36 $ 0.39 $ 0.4 0 St. Lucia $ 0.55 $ 0.59 $ 0.76 $ 0.78 $ 0.84 $ 0.85 $ 0.87 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 0.54 $ 0.56 $ 0.57 $ 0.59 $ 0.72 $ 0.65 $ 0.63 Suriname N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Trinidad & Tobago $ 11.20 $ 11.05 $ 10.66 $ 12.86 $ 11.77 $ 11.64 $ 11.13 Uruguay $ 22.40 $ 22.57 $ 22.57 $ 23.59 $ 25.75 $ 26.88 $ 28.69 United States $ 6,278.24 $ 6,502.13 $ 6,616.93 $ 6,550.02 $ 6,768.31 $ 6,959.79 $ 7,265.68 Venezuela $ 134.18 $ 127.38 $ 136.00 $ 146.10 $ 152.17 $ 153.55 $ 151.92 FTAA Total* $ 9,329.75 $ 9,599.17 $ 9,709.11 $ 9,727.27 $10,023.11 $10,370.27 $10,848.88

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42 Gross Domestic Product for FTAA Nations, 1981-2000 (Contd) (Billions of 1996 Dollars) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Antigua and Barbuda $ 0.83 $ 0.86 $ 0.94 $ 0.99 $ 1.05 $ 1.13 Argentina $ 356.91 $ 375.85 $ 405.04 $ 420.48 $ 408.86 $ 407.16 Bahamas N/A $ 4.69 N/A N/A N/A N/A Barbados $ 3.62 $ 3.86 $ 4.07 $ 4.14 $ 4.16 $ 4.38 Belize $ 1.35 $ 1.38 $ 1.39 $ 1.44 $ 1.50 $ 1.58 Bolivia $ 19.38 $ 20.0 5 $ 20.75 $ 21.43 $ 22.14 $ 22.67 Brazil $ 1,078.20 $ 1,111.44 $ 1,149.37 $ 1,117.93 $ 1,158.33 $ 1,224.37 Canada $ 673.51 $ 685.15 $ 722.09 $ 749.90 $ 789.78 $ 827.86 Chile $ 120.60 $ 129.37 $ 139.17 $ 145.28 $ 143.50 $ 150.90 Colombia $ 211.33 $ 217.20 $ 226.05 $ 228.18 $ 223.22 $ 227.58 Costa Rica $ 17.78 $ 17 .50 $ 18.36 $ 19.86 $ 21.87 $ 22.35 Dominica $ 0.48 $ 0.50 N/A N/A N/A $ 0.54 Dominican Republic $ 29.10 $ 31.28 $ 35.44 $ 37.90 $ 40.84 $ 44.13 Ecuador $ 44.49 $ 45.19 $ 46.50 $ 46.72 $ 42.89 $ 43.85 El Salvador $ 23.69 $ 24.56 $ 25.52 $ 26.13 $ 27.21 $ 27.83 Grenada $ 0.46 $ 0.48 $ 0.50 $ 0.53 $ 0.57 $ 0.61 Guatemala $ 37.62 $ 39 .32 $ 40.42 $ 41.15 $ 42.83 $ 44.56 Guyana $ 2.19 $ 2.40 $ 2.58 $ 2.58 $ 2.73 N/A Haiti $ 10.49 $ 12.89 $ 15.17 $ 17.96 N/A N/A Honduras $ 11.60 $ 12 .32 $ 12.91 $ 13.31 $ 12.72 $ 13.18 Jamaica $ 9.60 $ 9.65 $ 9.69 $ 9.69 $ 9.62 $ 9.72 Mexico $ 652.38 $ 678.97 $ 718.00 $ 751.01 $ 779.48 $ 852.25 Nicaragua $ 8.06 $ 8.06 $ 8.24 $ 8.29 $ 8.05 $ 8.96 Panama $ 14.80 $ 15.16 $ 15.94 $ 16.43 $ 16.73 $ 17.32 Paraguay $ 25.90 $ 26.47 $ 26.97 $ 26.79 $ 26.43 $ 25.73 Peru $ 104.19 $ 106.18 $ 113.31 $ 112.86 $ 113.90 $ 117.61 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 0.44 $ 0.48 $ 0.52 $ 0.53 $ 0.57 $ 0.56 St. Lucia $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.91 $ 0.94 $ 0.96 $ 0.99 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 0.68 $ 0.72 $ 0.70 $ 0.73 $ 0.76 $ 0.82 Suriname N/A N/A N/ A N/A N/A N/A Trinidad & Tobago $ 11.61 $ 12.04 $ 10.33 $ 11.96 $ 13.97 $ 14.50 Uruguay $ 28.29 $ 30.10 $ 31.72 $ 33.39 $ 32.56 $ 32.08 United States $ 7,473.80 $ 7,787.56 $ 8,129 .70 $ 8,450.11 $ 8,772.17 $ 9,173.90 Venezuela $ 154.93 $ 154.31 $ 160.30 $ 159.51 $ 152.03 $ 155.17 FTAA Total* $11,129.22 $11,566.92 $12,092 .58 $12,478.15 $12,871.45 $13,474.28 Source: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the Univ ersity of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002. N/A not available Total equals sum of available data and thus understates FTAA production

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43 Agricultural Value-Added as a % of National Economy % Agriculture 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Antigua and Barbuda 3.943.933.83.77 3.77 Argentina 4.825.054.8910.82 11.06 Bahamas* 3.03.03.03.0 3.0 Barbados 6.256.235.975.84 5.84 Belize 17.4517.2115.4215.06 15.06 Bolivia 15.1114.8715.2114.62 14.63 Brazil 7.247.226.15.99 5.99 Canada 2.52 2.522.522.52 2.52 Chile 8.368.548.818.81 8.81 Colombia 13.9614.0214.0313.89 14.01 Costa Rica 10.549.458.648.45 8.35 Dominica 18.7218.1117.6518.58 18.58 Dominican Republic 11.4111.1711.4311.84 10.62 Ecuador 11.7110.628.999.02 9.09 El Salvador 10.489.789.448.7 9.43 Grenada 8.077.817.87.53 7.53 Guatemala 23.0522.8222.5622.46 22.25 Guyana 34.6431.0930.330.82 30.82 Haiti 29.7428.528.6227.13 27.13 Honduras 15.9416.4214.0113.4 13.48 Jamaica 7.336.716.565.95 5.32 Mexico 4.744.174.153.97 4.05 Nicaragua 31.5718.5817.7217.96 17.81 Panama 5.885.725.725.72 5.59 Paraguay 21.8620.3621.3822.02 21.02 Peru 8.788.548.037.89 7.8 St. Kitts and Nevis 3.32.742.913.28 3.28 St. Lucia 7.347.886.326.72 6.72 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 10.4910.810.4910.53 10.53 Suriname 9.6611.1311.5511.09 11.09 Trinidad and Tobago 1.941.631.421.55 1.23 United States 1.621.611.61 1.61 1.61 Uruguay 5.636.216.429.43 9.5 Venezuela 4.924.184.512.58 2.58 FTAA Total 2.482.452.352.30 2.31 Source: World Bank Data Query Database, http://devda ta.worldbank.org/data-query. Note: Not all data available. For missing data, last available year's data used and notated by italics. Production by Sector from CIA World Factbook, 2004

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44 Industrial Value-Added as a % of National Economy % Industry 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Antigua and Barbuda 19.3719.7721.1921.66 21.66 Argentina 28.2928.0627.0432.40 34.81 Bahamas* 7.007.007.007.00 7.00 Barbados 21.5620.9820.5520.76 20.76 Belize 19.1121.1220.4719.71 19.71 Bolivia 30.9733.7632.5433.33 33.19 Brazil 27.4927.8822.3420.65 20.65 Canada 31.77 31.7731.7731.77 31.77 Chile 34.6334.6634.3134.31 34.31 Colombia 28.6030.3329.9730.24 30.59 Costa Rica 35.1032.0629.7829.12 28.92 Dominica 22.4123.4522.2321.04 21.04 Dominican Republic 34.1534.0933.2132.91 32.37 Ecuador 28.7834.7429.4128.34 28.98 El Salvador 29.2929.5329.5330.30 31.83 Grenada 22.5723.9622.5022.63 22.63 Guatemala 20.1219.7919.5919.35 19.26 Guyana 29.9829.0428.9228.58 28.58 Haiti 16.2816.6416.4616.34 16.34 Honduras 32.3532.0831.3630.59 30.72 Jamaica 31.3531.4631.6631.36 29.16 Mexico 28.6728.0127.2826.49 26.39 Nicaragua 22.9324.6826.0325.04 24.90 Panama 14.1013.8013.8013.80 13.56 Paraguay 26.0226.1127.4828.39 27.11 Peru 27.2327.5727.3727.78 28.59 St. Kitts and Nevis 26.1828.8830.3429.66 29.66 St. Lucia 19.5918.7618.8418.82 18.82 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 25.3024.0824.8025.16 25.16 Suriname 24.9725.1622.8219.58 19.58 Trinidad and Tobago 38.5445.0043.0740.58 40.40 United States 24.7324.4523.12 23.12 23.12 Uruguay 27.3527.2326.5626.79 26.97 Venezuela 35.6340.4735.5443.03 43.03 FTAA Total 25.7325.6024.1624.08 24.13 Source: World Bank Data Query, http://devdata.worldbank.o rg/data-query/. Note: Not all data available. For missing data, last available year's data used and notated by italics. Production by Sector from CIA World Factbook, 2004

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45 Value-Added from Services as a % of National Economy % Services 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Antigua and Barbuda 76.6876.3075.0174.57 74.57 Argentina 66.8966.8868.0756.78 54.14 Bahamas* 90.0090.0090.0090.00 90.00 Barbados 72.2072.7973.4773.41 73.41 Belize 63.4461.6764.1065.23 65.23 Bolivia 53.9351.3852.2552.05 52.18 Brazil 65.2764.8971.5673.36 73.36 Canada 65.72 65.7265.7265.72 65.72 Chile 57.0156.8156.8756.87 56.87 Colombia 57.4455.6455.9955.87 55.40 Costa Rica 54.3658.4961.5862.43 62.73 Dominica 58.8758.4560.1160.38 60.38 Dominican Republic 54.4454.7455.3655.25 57.01 Ecuador 59.5054.6461.6062.63 61.93 El Salvador 60.2360.6961.0361.00 58.74 Grenada 69.3668.2369.7069.84 69.84 Guatemala 56.8357.3957.8558.19 58.49 Guyana 35.3839.8840.7840.59 40.59 Haiti 53.9754.8654.9256.53 56.53 Honduras 51.7151.5054.6356.01 55.80 Jamaica 61.3161.8361.7862.69 65.52 Mexico 66.6067.8268.5769.55 69.57 Nicaragua 45.5056.7456.2557.00 57.30 Panama 80.0280.4880.4880.48 80.85 Paraguay 52.1253.5351.1449.59 51.87 Peru 63.9963.8964.6064.34 63.61 St. Kitts and Nevis 70.5268.3966.7567.06 67.06 St. Lucia 73.0773.3674.8574.46 74.46 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 64.2265.1364.7164.31 64.31 Suriname 65.3863.7165.6369.33 69.33 Trinidad and Tobago 59.5253.3755.5157.87 58.36 United States 73.6573.9475.27 75.27 75.27 Uruguay 67.0266.5667.0363.77 63.53 Venezuela 59.4555.3559.9554.39 54.39 FTAA Total 71.7971.9573.4973.62 73.56 Source: World Bank Data Query, http://devdata.worldbank.o rg/data-query/. Note: Not all data available. For missing data, last available year's data used and notated by italics. Production by Sector from CIA World Factbook, 2004

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46 U.S. Agricultural Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Census Basis; Foreign and Domestic Expo rts, FAS, Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua & Barbuda $ 19 $ 18 $ 17 $ 16 $ 15 $ 16 $ 16 $ 14 Argentina $ 24 $ 26 $ 43 $ 89 $ 81 $ 109 $ 122 $ 157 Bahamas $ 107 $ 112 $ 111 $ 112 $ 137 $ 120 $ 118 $ 135 Barbados $ 34 $ 28 $ 34 $ 25 $ 29 $ 31 $ 38 $ 52 Belize $ 17 $ 16 $ 19 $ 21 $ 19 $ 19 $ 15 $ 16 Bolivia $ 38 $ 22 $ 35 $ 41 $ 27 $ 31 $ 28 $ 40 Brazil $ 166 $ 170 $ 251 $ 146 $ 190 $ 474 $ 462 $ 561 Canada $ 2,497 $ 4,750 $ 5,129 $ 5,453 $ 5,864 $ 6,201 $ 6,479 $ 6,863 Chile $ 33 $ 60 $ 69 $ 91 $ 107 $ 98 $ 164 $ 128 Colombia $ 150 $ 116 $ 119 $ 216 $ 218 $ 302 $ 456 $ 609 Costa Rica $ 89 $ 91 $ 84 $ 102 $ 147 $ 161 $ 162 $ 217 Dominica $ 8 $ 8 $ 7 $ 7 $ 4 $ 4 $ 6 $ 10 Dominican Republic $ 264 $ 246 $ 243 $ 250 $ 286 $ 279 $ 368 $ 412 Ecuador $ 120 $ 94 $ 101 $ 57 $ 90 $ 71 $ 160 $ 156 El Salvador $ 91 $ 96 $ 106 $ 116 $ 143 $ 130 $ 173 $ 192 Grenada $ 6 $ 9 $ 9 $ 5 $ 6 $ 5 $ 6 $ 9 Guatemala $ 87 $ 98 $ 119 $ 124 $ 195 $ 211 $ 239 $ 272 Guyana $ 10 $ 12 $ 11 $ 17 $ 18 $ 20 $ 26 $ 29 Haiti $ 107 $ 125 $ 115 $ 137 $ 107 $ 105 $ 224 $ 188 Honduras $ 71 $ 64 $ 88 $ 76 $ 88 $ 85 $ 113 $ 132 Jamaica $ 160 $ 137 $ 136 $ 118 $ 134 $ 128 $ 167 $ 204 Mexico $ 2,721 $ 2,534 $ 2,947 $ 3,714 $ 3,523 $ 4,472 $ 3,456 $ 5,367 Nicaragua $ 0 $ 23 $ 43 $ 52 $ 44 $ 52 $ 69 $ 65 Panama $ 92 $ 84 $ 95 $ 113 $ 108 $ 127 $ 124 $ 148 Paraguay $ 4 $ 6 $ 10 $ 13 $ 17 $ 21 $ 24 $ 33 Peru $ 127 $ 159 $ 160 $ 170 $ 189 $ 205 $ 297 $ 307 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 5 $ 6 $ 5 $ 4 $ 4 St. Lucia $ 16 $ 14 $ 14 $ 12 $ 12 $ 10 $ 11 $ 13 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 14 $ 12 $ 15 $ 10 $ 15 $ 15 $ 15 $ 18 Suriname $ 15 $ 19 $ 12 $ 17 $ 13 $ 14 $ 21 $ 25 Trinidad & Tobago $ 97 $ 89 $ 94 $ 82 $ 91 $ 98 $ 108 $ 132 Uruguay $ 4 $ 6 $ 7 $ 4 $ 6 $ 10 $ 11 $ 16 Venezuela $ 446 $ 350 $ 315 $ 437 $ 479 $ 393 $ 472 $ 467 FTAA Total $ 7,641 $ 9,600 $ 10,564 $ 11,849 $ 12,410 $ 14,022 $ 14,154 $ 16,989

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47 U.S. Agricultural Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Census Basis; Foreign and Domestic Expo rts, FAS, Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua & Barbuda $ 15 $ 15 $ 15 $ 17 $ 15 $ 12 $ 13 $ 14 Argentina $ 344 $ 188 $ 135 $ 129 $ 105 $ 46 $ 63 $ 63 Bahamas $ 114 $ 108 $ 116 $ 127 $ 131 $ 128 $ 130 $ 144 Barbados $ 49 $ 42 $ 45 $ 41 $ 50 $ 40 $ 37 $ 42 Belize $ 16 $ 17 $ 16 $ 20 $ 21 $ 19 $ 23 $ 22 Bolivia $ 31 $ 22 $ 19 $ 13 $ 15 $ 19 $ 28 $ 21 Brazil $ 514 $ 455 $ 195 $ 240 $ 207 $ 314 $ 374 $ 271 Canada $ 7,544 $ 7,755 $ 7,754 $ 8, 254 $ 10,671 $ 10,774 $ 12,035 $ 13,287 Chile $ 123 $ 132$ 150 $ 107 $ 96 $ 109 $ 144 $ 114 Colombia $ 523 $ 557 $ 427 $ 410 $ 443 $ 517 $ 505 $ 587 Costa Rica $ 188 $ 198 $ 179 $ 183 $ 197 $ 224 $ 244 $ 283 Dominica $ 9 $ 8 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 Dominican Republic $ 533 $ 499 $ 556 $ 508 $ 505 $ 538 $ 451 $ 468 Ecuador $ 187 $ 177 $ 105 $ 100 $ 107 $ 143 $ 105 $ 131 El Salvador $ 230 $ 244 $ 200 $ 213 $ 234 $ 211 $ 236 $ 243 Grenada $ 8 $ 7 $ 8 $ 7 $ 7 $ 6 $ 7 $ 6 Guatemala $ 260 $ 308 $ 271 $ 253 $ 292 $ 333 $ 341 $ 379 Guyana $ 28 $ 22 $ 22 $ 22 $ 23 $ 21 $ 16 $ 24 Haiti $ 198 $ 210 $ 214 $ 177 $ 174 $ 165 $ 189 $ 201 Honduras $ 162 $ 185 $ 192 $ 194 $ 199 $ 186 $ 201 $ 220 Jamaica $ 198 $ 190 $ 185 $ 172 $ 183 $ 181 $ 182 $ 198 Mexico $ 5,123 $ 6,094 $ 5,555 $ 6,599 $ 7,442 $ 7,379 $ 7,927 $ 8,613 Nicaragua $ 67 $ 75 $ 83 $ 73 $ 101 $ 79 $ 97 $ 111 Panama $ 162 $ 228 $ 188 $ 170 $ 175 $ 184 $ 191 $ 160 Paraguay $ 31 $ 10 $ 10 $ 10 $ 5 $ 3 $ 2 $ 3 Peru $ 192 $ 355 $ 294 $ 169 $ 209 $ 211 $ 235 $ 300 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 3 $ 6 $ 5 $ 4 $ 5 $ 3 $ 5 $ 5 St. Lucia $ 13 $ 11 $ 10 $ 9 $ 9 $ 8 $ 10 $ 11 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 18 $ 15 $ 11 $ 11 $ 11 $ 10 $ 12 $ 13 Suriname $ 23 $ 22 $ 16 $ 16 $ 18 $ 17 $ 21 $ 15 Trinidad & Tobago $ 116 $ 109 $ 101 $ 106 $ 114 $ 117 $ 116 $ 153 Uruguay $ 14 $ 11 $ 11 $ 14 $ 22 $ 16 $ 20 $ 16 Venezuela $ 566 $ 503 $ 408 $ 399 $ 402 $ 337 $ 368 $ 383 FTAA Total $ 17,601 $ 18,779 $ 17,501 $ 18,775 $ 22,194 $ 22,357 $ 24,331 $ 26,507 Source: Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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48 U.S. Agricultural Imports from Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Census Basis; Foreign and Domestic Expo rts, FAS; Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua & Barbuda $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ $ 10.0 $ 0.1 $ $ 0.2 Argentina $ 378.8 $ 409.5 $ 568.0 $ 486.6 $ 391.8 $ 417.1 $ 475.1 $ 729.5 Bahamas $ 1.2 $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 4.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.2 Barbados $ 5.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 1.0 $ 0.4 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.7 Belize $ 19.9 $ 31.5 $ 18.1 $ 30.2 $ 19.5 $ 20.2 $ 17.4 $ 31.1 Bolivia $ 10.1 $ 11.8 $ 19.9 $ 9.7 $ 8.5 $ 19.7 $ 10.3 $ 13.7 Brazil $ 1,510.4 $ 1,787.6 $ 1,249.6 $ 1,378.5 $ 1,203.4 $ 1,298.3 $ 1,183.2 $ 1,349.3 Canada $ 2,908.2 $ 3,163.5 $ 3,290.9 $ 4,031.7 $ 4,565.7 $ 5,210.4 $ 5,548.8 $ 6,730.0 Chile $ 388.9 $ 479.2 $ 443.5 $ 497.0 $ 457.1 $ 534.4 $ 544.8 $ 753.2 Colombia $ 828.3 $ 790.4 $ 784.1 $ 880.8 $ 810.9 $ 1,021.0 $ 1,134.3 $ 1,121.1 Costa Rica $ 394.3 $ 400.3 $ 475.4 $ 534.6 $ 551.8 $ 549.7 $ 637.1 $ 681.9 Dominica $ 0.3 $ 1.0 $ 0.4 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 Dominican Republic $ 320.3 $ 322.7 $ 285.7 $ 240.3 $ 243.6 $ 309.2 $ 297.9 $ 368.7 Ecuador $ 418.4 $ 490.6 $ 469.8 $ 394.5 $ 355.4 $ 516.6 $ 550.0 $ 538.7 El Salvador $ 126.1 $ 108.6 $ 129.6 $ 134.4 $ 134.2 $ 91.7 $ 88.5 $ 101.2 Grenada $ 1.3 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 0.5 Guatemala $ 384.0 $ 497.2 $ 472.3 $ 502.6 $ 510.4 $ 548.3 $ 648.3 $ 659.8 Guyana $ 3.1 $ 1.0 $ 0.8 $ 13.1 $ 5.9 $ 9.4 $ 2.8 $ 10.0 Haiti $ 12.4 $ 10.2 $ 11.3 $ 0.3 $ 5.7 $ 3.1 $ 8.9 $ 6.5 Honduras $ 266.6 $ 260.2 $ 212.6 $ 250.6 $ 230.8 $ 238.2 $ 279.5 $ 276.9 Jamaica $ 25.5 $ 32.6 $ 31.5 $ 30.9 $ 42.9 $ 44.7 $ 35.7 $ 48.4 Mexico $ 2,270.1 $ 2,632.3 $ 2,513.8 $ 2,384.7 $ 2,707.1 $ 2,860.4 $ 3,780.0 $ 3,712.5 Nicaragua $ $ 7.8 $ 39.7 $ 43.8 $ 74.0 $ 77.2 $ 70.7 $ 79.8 Panama $ 52.0 $ 31.1 $ 57.7 $ 50.3 $ 64.8 $ 65.5 $ 92.5 $ 115.1 Paraguay $ 10.0 $ 11.4 $ 7.6 $ 4.8 $ 9.5 $ 6.3 $ 13.8 $ 9.2 Peru $ 115.9 $ 106.9 $ 104.7 $ 80.9 $ 61.1 $ 116.0 $ 187.2 $ 154.4 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 3.4 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 3.1 $ 0.2 $ 1.6 $ 0.5 $ 0.2 St. Lucia $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 1.0 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 Suriname $ 0.5 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.2 Trinidad & Tobago $ 10.0 $ 15.4 $ 10.3 $ 11.9 $ 13.0 $ 13.3 $ 14.9 $ 22.3 Uruguay $ 20.6 $ 30.1 $ 37.3 $ 37.0 $ 29.3 $ 27.0 $ 28.2 $ 61.9 Venezuela $ 36.9 $ 51.8 $ 35.8 $ 44.4 $ 70.5 $ 71.6 $ 43.1 $ 102.2 FTAA Total $ 10,523.7 $ 11,690.4 $ 11,279.4 $ 12,084.8 $ 12,583.0 $ 14,078.0 $ 15,699.7 $ 17,682.1

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49 U.S. Agricultural Imports from Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Census Basis; Foreign and Domestic Expo rts, FAS; Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua & Barbuda $ 0.2 $ 0.0 $ 0.3 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 Argentina $ 686.4 $ 620.8 $ 675.5 $ 653.0 $ 575.3 $ 546.0 $ 513.6 $ 596.1 Bahamas $ 2.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 4 .3 $ 2.7 Barbados $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.8 $ 0.9 Belize $ 35.5 $ 20.0 $ 23.4 $ 35.1 $ 37.7 $ 31.1 $ 28.5 $ 29.5 Bolivia $ 19.6 $ 17.2 $ 14.7 $ 16.1 $ 16.2 $ 20.6 $ 21.1 $ 30.6 Brazil $ 1,502.0 $ 1,277.8 $ 1,451.5 $ 1,168 .4 $ 1,016.3 $ 1,174.3 $ 1,492.9 $ 1,625.4 Canada $ 7,372.7 $ 7,712.6 $ 7,905.1 $ 8,758.6 $ 9,992.3 $ 10,380.3 $ 10,295.0 $ 11,589.9 Chile $ 746.8 $ 784.4 $ 912.2 $ 1,067.9 $ 1,071.8 $ 1,197.8 $ 1,264.4 $ 1,407.3 Colombia $ 1,426.3 $ 1,293.0 $ 1,183.7 $ 1,119.8 $ 921.3 $ 922.9 $ 1,026.7 $ 1,160.6 Costa Rica $ 746.9 $ 772.5 $ 829.2 $ 846.9 $ 824.8 $ 820.2 $ 874.7 $ 908.4 Dominica $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.3 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 Dominican Republic $ 450.8 $ 370.9 $ 240.2 $ 242.2 $ 250.6 $ 256.7 $ 276.7 $ 259.8 Ecuador $ 549.2 $ 519.4 $ 568.5 $ 468.8 $ 494.8 $ 518.9 $ 569.4 $ 5 97.5 El Salvador $ 154.1 $ 131.5 $ 101.4 $ 168.0 $ 87.8 $ 74.0 $ 104.5 $ 100.3 Grenada $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 1 .7 $ 1.3 Guatemala $ 777.8 $ 685.7 $ 694.2 $ 705.7 $ 610.1 $ 691.0 $ 756.6 $ 782.4 Guyana $ 10.9 $ 8.1 $ 6.7 $ 15.3 $ 6.0 $ 6.4 $ 5.8 $ 9.2 Haiti $ 9.5 $ 8.8 $ 8.6 $ 9.1 $ 5.5 $ 10.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.5 Honduras $ 295.6 $ 301.5 $ 133.5 $ 249.4 $ 232.2 $ 232.0 $ 220.6 $ 2 67.4 Jamaica $ 46.6 $ 48.6 $ 48.8 $ 46.6 $ 50.2 $ 55.0 $ 57.0 $ 60.1 Mexico $ 4,017.6 $ 4,577.5 $ 4,765.9 $ 5,016 .3 $ 5,176.3 $ 5,348.0 $ 6,138.2 $ 7,105.1 Nicaragua $ 94.8 $ 93.1 $ 74.4 $ 114.7 $ 97.0 $ 100.0 $ 116.0 $ 159.6 Panama $ 114.7 $ 59.3 $ 84.8 $ 56.7 $ 47.6 $ 42.3 $ 45.9 $ 38.8 Paraguay $ 11.6 $ 12.2 $ 14.4 $ 13.3 $ 13.4 $ 14.4 $ 16.3 $ 20.0 Peru $ 273.3 $ 227.6 $ 221.1 $ 197.4 $ 206.8 $ 246.6 $ 277.3 $ 348. 8 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.1 $ 0.7 $ 0.2 $ 0.0 St. Lucia $ 0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.2 $ 0.1 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.1 $ 0. 2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 Suriname $ 0.6 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.4 Trinidad & Tobago $ 19.5 $ 14.0 $ 11.6 $ 15.5 $ 12.9 $ 12.7 $ 12.6 $ 9.5 Uruguay $ 59.8 $ 53.9 $ 62.0 $ 63.4 $ 59.6 $ 34.5 $ 108.9 $ 348.9 Venezuela $ 63.6 $ 67.8 $ 99.9 $ 57.1 $ 39.0 $ 47.2 $ 46.3 $ 71.0 FTAA Total $ 19,494.2 $ 19,685.8 $ 20,138.3 $ 21,112.7 $ 21,853.7 $ 22,792.6 $ 24,288.8 $ 27,544.0 Source: Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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50 U.S. Agricultural Net Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua & Barbuda $ 19 $ 18 $ 16 $ 16 $ 5 $ 16 $ 16 $ 14 Argentina $ (354) $ (384) $ (525) $ (397) $ (311) $ (308) $ (353) $ (573) Bahamas $ 106 $ 109 $ 108 $ 107 $ 133 $ 117 $ 116 $ 133 Barbados $ 28 $ 26 $ 32 $ 24 $ 29 $ 30 $ 37 $ 51 Belize $ (3) $ (15) $ 1 $ (9) $ (0) $ (1) $ (2) $ (15) Bolivia $ 28 $ 10 $ 15 $ 31 $ 19 $ 12 $ 17 $ 26 Brazil $ (1,345) $ (1,617) $ (999) $ (1,232) $ (1,013) $ (824) $ (721) $ (788) Canada $ (411) $ 1,587 $ 1,838 $ 1,421 $ 1,298 $ 991 $ 931 $ 133 Chile $ (356) $ (419) $ (375) $ (406) $ (350) $ (436) $ (380) $ (625) Colombia $ (678) $ (675) $ (666) $ (665) $ (593) $ (719) $ (679) $ (512) Costa Rica $ (305) $ (310) $ (392) $ (432) $ (405) $ (389) $ (475) $ (465) Dominica $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 4 $ 3 $ 5 $ 10 Dominican Republic $ (56) $ (77) $ (42) $ 10 $ 43 $ (30) $ 70 $ 43 Ecuador $ (298) $ (397) $ (369) $ (337) $ (266) $ (446) $ (390) $ (383) El Salvador $ (35) $ (12) $ (24) $ (19) $ 9 $ 38 $ 84 $ 90 Grenada $ 5 $ 8 $ 7 $ 4 $ 4 $ 3 $ 4 $ 9 Guatemala $ (297) $ (399) $ (354) $ (378) $ (315) $ (337) $ (409) $ (388) Guyana $ 7 $ 11 $ 10 $ 4 $ 12 $ 11 $ 23 $ 19 Haiti $ 94 $ 115 $ 104 $ 137 $ 101 $ 102 $ 215 $ 181 Honduras $ (196) $ (197) $ (125) $ (175) $ (143) $ (153) $ (166) $ (145) Jamaica $ 134 $ 104 $ 105 $ 87 $ 92 $ 83 $ 132 $ 156 Mexico $ 451 $ (98) $ 433 $ 1,329 $ 816 $ 1,611 $ (324) $ 1,654 Nicaragua $ 0 $ 15 $ 3 $ 9 $ (30) $ (25) $ (2) $ (15) Panama $ 40 $ 53 $ 37 $ 62 $ 43 $ 61 $ 32 $ 33 Paraguay $ (6) $ (5) $ 3 $ 8 $ 8 $ 15 $ 10 $ 23 Peru $ 11 $ 52 $ 55 $ 89 $ 128 $ 89 $ 110 $ 153 St. Kitts & Nevis $ 3 $ 6 $ 6 $ 2 $ 6 $ 3 $ 3 $ 4 St. Lucia $ 16 $ 14 $ 13 $ 12 $ 12 $ 10 $ 11 $ 12 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 14 $ 12 $ 15 $ 10 $ 15 $ 15 $ 14 $ 18 Suriname $ 15 $ 19 $ 12 $ 17 $ 13 $ 14 $ 20 $ 25 Trinidad & Tobago $ 87 $ 74 $ 84 $ 70 $ 78 $ 85 $ 93 $ 109 Uruguay $ (17) $ (24) $ (30) $ (33) $ (23) $ (17) $ (17) $ (46) Venezuela $ 410 $ 299 $ 280 $ 393 $ 409 $ 321 $ 428 $ 365 FTAA Total $ (2,883) $ (2,091) $ (716) $ (236) $ (173) $ (56) $ (1,546) $ (694)

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51 U.S. Agricultural Net Exports to Individual Countries, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua & Barbuda $ 15 $ 15 $ 15 $ 17 $ 15 $ 12 $ 13 $ 14 Argentina $ (342) $ (433) $ (541) $ (524) $ (470) $ (500) $ (451) $ (533) Bahamas $ 111 $ 106 $ 113 $ 125 $ 127 $ 125 $ 125 $ 141 Barbados $ 49 $ 41 $ 44 $ 40 $ 49 $ 39 $ 36 $ 42 Belize $ (20) $ (3) $ (7) $ (15) $ (17) $ (12) $ (6) $ (8) Bolivia $ 11 $ 4 $ 5 $ (3) $ (1) $ (2) $ 6 $ (10) Brazil $ (988) $ (823) $ (1,256) $ (929) $ (809) $ (860) $ (1,119) $ (1,355) Canada $ 171 $ 42 $ (151) $ (505) $ 678 $ 394 $ 1,740 $ 1,698 Chile $ (624) $ (653) $ (763) $ (960) $ (975) $ (1,089) $ (1,121) $ (1,293) Colombia $ (903) $ (736) $ (757) $ (709) $ (479) $ (406) $ (521) $ (573) Costa Rica $ (559) $ (575) $ (650) $ (664) $ (628) $ (596) $ (631) $ (626) Dominica $ 9 $ 8 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 5 $ 4 $ 5 Dominican Republic $ 82 $ 128 $ 316 $ 266 $ 255 $ 282 $ 174 $ 208 Ecuador $ (362) $ (342) $ (464) $ (368) $ (388) $ (376) $ (464) $ (466) El Salvador $ 76 $ 112 $ 99 $ 45 $ 147 $ 137 $ 132 $ 142 Grenada $ 7 $ 7 $ 6 $ 5 $ 5 $ 4 $ 6 $ 5 Guatemala $ (518) $ (377) $ (423) $ (452) $ (318) $ (358) $ (415) $ (403) Guyana $ 17 $ 14 $ 16 $ 7 $ 17 $ 15 $ 10 $ 15 Haiti $ 189 $ 201 $ 205 $ 167 $ 168 $ 155 $ 180 $ 192 Honduras $ (134) $ (117) $ 58 $ (55) $ (34) $ (46) $ (19) $ (47) Jamaica $ 151 $ 141 $ 136 $ 125 $ 133 $ 126 $ 125 $ 138 Mexico $ 1,105 $ 1,516 $ 789 $ 1,583 $ 2,265 $ 2,031 $ 1,789 $ 1,508 Nicaragua $ (28) $ (18) $ 9 $ (42) $ 4 $ (21) $ (19) $ (49) Panama $ 47 $ 169 $ 103 $ 113 $ 128 $ 142 $ 145 $ 122 Paraguay $ 20 $ (3) $ (5) $ (4) $ (9) $ (11) $ (15) $ (17) Peru $ (82) $ 128 $ 73 $ (28) $ 2 $ (36) $ (42) $ (49) St. Kitts & Nevis $ 0 $ 3 $ 5 $ 3 $ 5 $ 3 $ 5 $ 5 St. Lucia $ 12 $ 11 $ 9 $ 9 $ 8 $ 8 $ 10 $ 11 St. Vincent & Grenadines $ 17 $ 15 $ 11 $ 11 $ 11 $ 10 $ 12 $ 13 Suriname $ 23 $ 22 $ 16 $ 15 $ 17 $ 15 $ 19 $ 13 Trinidad & Tobago $ 96 $ 95 $ 89 $ 91 $ 101 $ 104 $ 103 $ 143 Uruguay $ (46) $ (42) $ (51) $ (49) $ (38) $ (18) $ (89) $ (333) Venezuela $ 502 $ 435 $ 308 $ 342 $ 363 $ 290 $ 322 $ 312 FTAA Total $ (1,894) $ (906) $ (2,637) $ (2,337) $ 340 $ (436) $ 42 $ (1,037) Source: U.S. International Trad e Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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52 U.S. Exports of Manufactures to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua and Barbuda $ 50 $ 46 $ 50 $ 43 $ 46 $ 43 $ 72 $ 60 Argentina $ 944 $ 1,087 $ 1,900 $ 3,009 $ 3,559 $ 4,188 $ 3,893 $ 4,213 Bahamas $ 511 $ 472 $ 468 $ 483 $ 440 $ 445 $ 444 $ 481 Barbados $ 134 $ 123 $ 118 $ 90 $ 104 $ 120 $ 133 $ 155 Belize $ 81 $ 82 $ 89 $ 91 $ 107 $ 90 $ 80 $ 86 Bolivia $ 104 $ 113 $ 151 $ 176 $ 180 $ 150 $ 179 $ 223 Brazil $ 4,134 $ 4,401 $ 5,178 $ 4,968 $ 5,294 $ 7,057 $ 10,230 $ 11,279 Canada $ 71,879 $ 73,152 $ 75,900 $ 80,421 $ 89,979 $103,177 $113,649 $119,952 Chile $ 1,274 $ 1,526 $ 1,673 $ 2,260 $ 2,384 $ 2,544 $ 3,244 $ 3,766 Colombia $ 1,673 $ 1,855 $ 1,732 $ 2,970 $ 2,923 $ 3,671 $ 4,040 $ 3,907 Costa Rica $ 750 $ 831 $ 881 $ 1,167 $ 1,330 $ 1,633 $ 1,513 $ 1,540 Dominica $ 24 $ 21 $ 34 $ 23 $ 21 $ 20 $ 19 $ 22 Dominican Republic $ 1,305 $ 1,293 $ 1,408 $ 1,754 $ 1,965 $ 2,391 $ 2,509 $ 2,637 Ecuador $ 489 $ 567 $ 826 $ 885 $ 962 $ 1,085 $ 1,279 $ 1,046 El Salvador $ 395 $ 423 $ 374 $ 575 $ 685 $ 754 $ 870 $ 821 Grenada $ 19 $ 23 $ 19 $ 16 $ 17 $ 17 $ 19 $ 25 Guatemala $ 470 $ 517 $ 655 $ 902 $ 975 $ 1,029 $ 1,283 $ 1,172 Guyana $ 65 $ 62 $ 73 $ 98 $ 101 $ 87 $ 113 $ 105 Haiti $ 343 $ 330 $ 258 $ 75 $ 110 $ 98 $ 289 $ 248 Honduras $ 422 $ 481 $ 481 $ 635 $ 718 $ 886 $ 1,101 $ 1,398 Jamaica $ 698 $ 643 $ 695 $ 697 $ 838 $ 807 $ 1,095 $ 1,105 Mexico $ 20,533 $ 24,042 $ 28,400 $ 34,551 $ 35,962 $ 44,103 $ 40,302 $ 48,778 Nicaragua $ 2 $ 43 $ 99 $ 129 $ 99 $ 126 $ 170 $ 186 Panama $ 520 $ 634 $ 748 $ 854 $ 956 $ 989 $ 1,061 $ 1,026 Paraguay $ 142 $ 269 $ 307 $ 348 $ 444 $ 719 $ 915 $ 821 Peru $ 487 $ 572 $ 629 $ 737 $ 804 $ 1,079 $ 1,417 $ 1,409 Saint Kitts and Nevis $ 35 $ 43 $ 26 $ 25 $ 33 $ 37 $ 37 $ 32 Saint Lucia $ 56 $ 57 $ 60 $ 59 $ 70 $ 56 $ 57 $ 58 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ 25 $ 21 $ 24 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 25 $ 24 Suriname $ 119 $ 134 $ 117 $ 118 $ 102 $ 106 $ 165 $ 191 Trinidad and Tobago $ 442 $ 322 $ 352 $ 350 $ 426 $ 417 $ 565 $ 486 Uruguay $ 113 $ 124 $ 202 $ 220 $ 238 $ 285 $ 372 $ 440 Venezuela $ 2,308 $ 2,443 $ 4,019 $ 4,783 $ 3,942 $ 3,400 $ 3,808 $ 3,991 FTAA Total $110,542 $116,751 $127,944 $143,533 $155,837 $181,628 $194,948 $211,684

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53 U.S. Exports of Manufactures to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua and Barbuda $ 56 $ 74 $ 72 $ 114 $ 76 $ 65 $ 90 $ 83 Argentina $ 5,305 $ 5,570 $ 4,719 $ 4,445 $ 3,732 $ 1,484 $ 2,305 $ 3,194 Bahamas $ 610 $ 620 $ 651 $ 826 $ 760 $ 642 $ 664 $ 729 Barbados $ 205 $ 223 $ 237 $ 248 $ 222 $ 210 $ 239 $ 284 Belize $ 89 $ 100 $ 116 $ 163 $ 141 $ 110 $ 136 $ 111 Bolivia $ 259 $ 378 $ 289 $ 235 $ 199 $ 171 $ 152 $ 169 Brazil $ 14,594 $ 14,049 $ 12,550 $ 14,528 $ 15,170 $ 11,590 $ 10,358 $ 12,908 Canada $135,823 $139,834 $149,585 $160,662 $146,906 $144,628 $150,828 $167,996 Chile $ 4,006 $ 3,740 $ 2,829 $ 3,212 $ 2,929 $ 2,409 $ 2,462 $ 3,088 Colombia $ 4,471 $ 4,138 $ 3,014 $ 3,172 $ 3,082 $ 2,984 $ 3,133 $ 3,791 Costa Rica $ 1,778 $ 2,015 $ 2,130 $ 2,192 $ 2,213 $ 2,814 $ 3,042 $ 2,898 Dominica $ 26 $ 42 $ 31 $ 30 $ 23 $ 39 $ 29 $ 29 Dominican Republic $ 3,221 $ 3,338 $ 3,386 $ 3,715 $ 3,700 $ 3,505 $ 3,257 $ 3,481 Ecuador $ 1,224 $ 1,369 $ 746 $ 860 $ 1,219 $ 1,361 $ 1,206 $ 1,360 El Salvador $ 1,088 $ 1,223 $ 1,281 $ 1,513 $ 1,485 $ 1,370 $ 1,488 $ 1,553 Grenada $ 31 $ 47 $ 56 $ 69 $ 50 $ 49 $ 59 $ 60 Guatemala $ 1,330 $ 1,514 $ 1,446 $ 1,469 $ 1,448 $ 1,549 $ 1,597 $ 1,798 Guyana $ 111 $ 117 $ 118 $ 130 $ 114 $ 102 $ 93 $ 106 Haiti $ 275 $ 312 $ 370 $ 372 $ 351 $ 386 $ 399 $ 436 Honduras $ 1,717 $ 2,052 $ 2,098 $ 2,291 $ 2,190 $ 2,289 $ 2,368 $ 2,572 Jamaica $ 1,032 $ 983 $ 939 $ 983 $ 1,039 $ 1,031 $ 985 $ 952 Mexico $ 62,885 $ 69,781 $ 77,817 $ 99,229 $ 89,463 $ 85,363 $ 85,082 $ 97,081 Nicaragua $ 210 $ 249 $ 280 $ 298 $ 332 $ 348 $ 383 $ 464 Panama $ 1,152 $ 1,325 $ 1,434 $ 1,240 $ 980 $ 1,014 $ 1,207 $ 1,230 Paraguay $ 833 $ 721 $ 479 $ 410 $ 382 $ 429 $ 484 $ 616 Peru $ 1,725 $ 1,646 $ 1,356 $ 1,444 $ 1,294 $ 1,272 $ 1,354 $ 1,567 Saint Kitts and Nevis $ 29 $ 34 $ 38 $ 50 $ 38 $ 42 $ 47 $ 51 Saint Lucia $ 63 $ 69 $ 75 $ 76 $ 59 $ 75 $ 84 $ 66 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ 34 $ 256 $ 78 $ 24 $ 24 $ 23 $ 29 $ 28 Suriname $ 153 $ 159 $ 124 $ 113 $ 137 $ 105 $ 165 $ 160 Trinidad and Tobago $ 950 $ 830 $ 661 $ 966 $ 946 $ 878 $ 913 $ 988 Uruguay $ 509 $ 563 $ 464 $ 509 $ 385 $ 186 $ 301 $ 302 Venezuela $ 5,705 $ 5,806 $ 4,814 $ 4,919 $ 5,119 $ 3,947 $ 2,236 $ 4,171 FTAA Total $251,498 $263,177 $274,285 $310,506 $286,207 $272,469 $277,177 $314,323 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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54 U.S. Imports of Manufactures from FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua and Barbuda $ 4 $ 2 $ 3 $ 5 $ 4 $ 5 $ 2 $ 8 Argentina $ 773 $ 685 $ 531 $ 481 $ 602 $ 986 $ 841 $ 652 Bahamas $ 311 $ 351 $ 348 $ 404 $ 202 $ 79 $ 78 $ 87 Barbados $ 38 $ 27 $ 27 $ 28 $ 30 $ 30 $ 33 $ 36 Belize $ 16 $ 10 $ 21 $ 22 $ 26 $ 21 $ 2 1 $ 22 Bolivia $ 89 $ 164 $ 153 $ 134 $ 157 $ 191 $ 190 $ 200 Brazil $ 5,581 $ 5,115 $ 4,746 $ 5, 475 $ 5,394 $ 6,451 $ 6,618 $ 6,5 22 Canada $ 68,269 $ 69,589 $ 69,685 $ 75,127 $ 84,476 $ 99,782 $ 113,837 $ 120,444 Chile $ 731 $ 638 $ 629 $ 634 $ 653 $ 819 $ 790 $ 885 Colombia $ 514 $ 607 $ 647 $ 798 $ 860 $ 908 $ 1,055 $ 1,064 Costa Rica $ 519 $ 564 $ 639 $ 839 $ 951 $ 1,049 $ 1,161 $ 1,229 Dominica $ 7 $ 7 $ 4 $ 4 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 7 Dominican Republic $ 1,292 $ 1,388 $ 1,699 $ 2,099 $ 2,394 $ 2,740 $ 3,035 $ 3,087 Ecuador $ 34 $ 38 $ 40 $ 49 $ 82 $ 104 $ 8 9 $ 112 El Salvador $ 100 $ 116 $ 157 $ 233 $ 332 $ 493 $ 694 $ 931 Grenada $ 6 $ 7 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 4 $ 1 $ 2 Guatemala $ 181 $ 249 $ 389 $ 535 $ 632 $ 682 $ 812 $ 914 Guyana $ 11 $ 10 $ 10 $ 10 $ 12 $ 29 $ 4 7 $ 39 Haiti $ 358 $ 328 $ 270 $ 106 $ 148 $ 55 $ 117 $ 135 Honduras $ 120 $ 156 $ 242 $ 423 $ 574 $ 733 $ 1,033 $ 1,366 Jamaica $ 286 $ 294 $ 304 $ 335 $ 471 $ 525 $ 622 $ 589 Mexico $ 19,596 $ 21,236 $ 23,000 $ 27, 098 $ 31,382 $ 40,357 $ 50,528 $ 60,965 Nicaragua $ 0 $ 1 $ 2 $ 6 $ 24 $ 43 $ 95 $ 192 Panama $ 103 $ 111 $ 131 $ 128 $ 133 $ 152 $ 99 $ 110 Paraguay $ 34 $ 39 $ 35 $ 30 $ 39 $ 72 $ 40 $ 32 Peru $ 410 $ 420 $ 482 $ 457 $ 421 $ 488 $ 514 $ 702 Saint Kitts and Nevis $ 18 $ 16 $ 12 $ 20 $ 24 $ 20 $ 22 $ 23 Saint Lucia $ 24 $ 27 $ 21 $ 28 $ 31 $ 26 $ 35 $ 22 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ 11 $ 8 $ 5 $ 4 $ 3 $ 5 $ 7 $ 6 Suriname $ 18 $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 5 $ 10 $ 43 $ 14 Trinidad and Tobago $ 153 $ 176 $ 183 $ 175 $ 216 $ 518 $ 521 $ 518 Uruguay $ 176 $ 162 $ 178 $ 208 $ 215 $ 113 $ 108 $ 177 Venezuela $ 508 $ 702 $ 531 $ 579 $ 665 $ 1,090 $ 1,163 $ 1,244 FTAA Total $ 100,291 $ 103,243 $ 105,131 $ 11 6,481 $ 131,169 $ 158,586 $ 184,259 $ 202,337

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55 U.S. Imports of Manufactures from FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua and Barbuda $ 4 $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 3 $ 3 $ 12 $ 2 Argentina $ 848 $ 985 $ 1,054 $ 1,294 $ 1,205 $ 1,204 $ 1,157 $ 1,394 Bahamas $ 83 $ 76 $ 87 $ 125 $ 113 $ 135 $ 160 $ 231 Barbados $ 36 $ 30 $ 53 $ 33 $ 32 $ 24 $ 26 $ 26 Belize $ 21 $ 24 $ 24 $ 24 $ 19 $ 20 $ 22 $ 26 Bolivia $ 149 $ 156 $ 163 $ 137 $ 125 $ 128 $ 147 $ 182 Brazil $ 7,178 $ 7,697 $ 8,572 $ 10 ,681 $ 11,224 $ 12,269 $ 13,135 $ 16,189 Canada $ 129,523 $ 140,048 $ 159,441 $ 175, 241 $ 160,262 $ 158,679 $ 160,819 $ 180,851 Chile $ 875 $ 845 $ 1,205 $ 1,271 $ 1,516 $ 1,541 $ 1,253 $ 1 ,807 Colombia $ 1,077 $ 1,212 $ 1,527 $ 1,675 $ 1,446 $ 1,420 $ 2,040 $ 2,261 Costa Rica $ 1,494 $ 1,908 $ 3,059 $ 2,647 $ 1,997 $ 2,241 $ 2,416 $ 2,357 Dominica $ 8 $ 6 $ 13 $ 7 $ 5 $ 4 $ 5 $ 2 Dominican Republic $ 3,633 $ 3,829 $ 3,847 $ 3,931 $ 3,717 $ 3,696 $ 3,950 $ 4,011 Ecuador $ 121 $ 128 $ 157 $ 165 $ 185 $ 159 $ 204 $ 210 El Salvador $ 1,158 $ 1,271 $ 1,474 $ 1,736 $ 1,773 $ 1,896 $ 1,900 $ 1,936 Grenada $ 4 $ 10 $ 16 $ 22 $ 19 $ 3 $ 3 $ 2 Guatemala $ 1,091 $ 1,302 $ 1,446 $ 1,718 $ 1,845 $ 1,910 $ 1,978 $ 2,153 Guyana $ 36 $ 34 $ 29 $ 32 $ 32 $ 29 $ 33 $ 38 Haiti $ 173 $ 256 $ 287 $ 283 $ 254 $ 241 $ 320 $ 357 Honduras $ 1,842 $ 2,077 $ 2,410 $ 2,650 $ 2,707 $ 2,828 $ 2,893 $ 3,157 Jamaica $ 541 $ 496 $ 476 $ 479 $ 268 $ 185 $ 204 $ 182 Mexico $ 71,795 $ 83,317 $ 96,198 $ 116,482 $ 114,508 $ 115,617 $ 114,775 $ 127,147 Nicaragua $ 230 $ 276 $ 325 $ 358 $ 407 $ 470 $ 558 $ 725 Panama $ 114 $ 109 $ 157 $ 110 $ 104 $ 125 $ 128 $ 128 Paraguay $ 28 $ 18 $ 28 $ 20 $ 12 $ 17 $ 19 $ 20 Peru $ 1,019 $ 1,376 $ 1,384 $ 1, 505 $ 1,326 $ 1,341 $ 1,749 $ 2,86 8 Saint Kitts and Nevis $ 27 $ 29 $ 32 $ 37 $ 41 $ 48 $ 44 $ 42 Saint Lucia $ 20 $ 22 $ 28 $ 22 $ 18 $ 19 $ 13 $ 14 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ 4 $ 4 $ 8 $ 8 $ 4 $ 4 $ 3 $ 3 Suriname $ 7 $ 7 $ 16 $ 9 $ 7 $ 6 $ 5 $ 3 Trinidad and Tobago $ 515 $ 466 $ 514 $ 738 $ 897 $ 795 $ 1,242 $ 1,776 Uruguay $ 145 $ 176 $ 110 $ 215 $ 137 $ 133 $ 119 $ 118 Venezuela $ 1,280 $ 1,200 $ 1,280 $ 1,570 $ 1,517 $ 1,555 $ 1,561 $ 2,150 FTAA Total $ 225,080 $ 249,391 $ 285,421 $ 32 5,226 $ 307,726 $ 308,743 $ 312,892 $ 352,363 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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56 U.S. Net Exports of Manufactu res to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Antigua and Barbuda $ 46 $ 44 $ 47 $ 39 $ 42 $ 38 $ 70 $ 52 Argentina $ 171 $ 402 $ 1,368 $ 2,528 $ 2,957 $ 3,202 $ 3,052 $ 3,560 Bahamas $ 200 $ 122 $ 120 $ 78 $ 237 $ 366 $ 366 $ 393 Barbados $ 96 $ 95 $ 91 $ 62 $ 74 $ 90 $ 100 $ 119 Belize $ 64 $ 73 $ 68 $ 69 $ 81 $ 70 $ 59 $ 64 Bolivia $ 15 $ (51) $ (2) $ 42 $ 23 $ (42) $ (11) $ 23 Brazil $ (1,448) $ (713) $ 432 $ (506) $ (100) $ 606 $ 3,611 $ 4,757 Canada $ 3,610 $ 3,563 $ 6,215 $ 5,294 $ 5,502 $ 3,394 $ (189) $ (492) Chile $ 543 $ 888 $ 1,044 $ 1,626 $ 1,731 $ 1,725 $ 2,454 $ 2,881 Colombia $ 1,158 $ 1,248 $ 1,085 $ 2,172 $ 2,064 $ 2,763 $ 2,985 $ 2,843 Costa Rica $ 231 $ 267 $ 242 $ 328 $ 379 $ 584 $ 352 $ 311 Dominica $ 17 $ 14 $ 30 $ 19 $ 16 $ 14 $ 13 $ 15 Dominican Republic $ 14 $ (95) $ (291) $ (346) $ (428) $ (349) $ (525) $ (450) Ecuador $ 454 $ 529 $ 787 $ 836 $ 880 $ 982 $ 1,189 $ 934 El Salvador $ 295 $ 307 $ 217 $ 342 $ 352 $ 261 $ 176 $ (110) Grenada $ 13 $ 16 $ 14 $ 11 $ 11 $ 13 $ 18 $ 23 Guatemala $ 289 $ 268 $ 266 $ 367 $ 343 $ 348 $ 471 $ 257 Guyana $ 54 $ 52 $ 62 $ 87 $ 88 $ 59 $ 66 $ 66 Haiti $ (16) $ 1 $ (13) $ (31) $ (37) $ 43 $ 171 $ 113 Honduras $ 302 $ 326 $ 239 $ 211 $ 144 $ 152 $ 68 $ 32 Jamaica $ 412 $ 349 $ 392 $ 362 $ 368 $ 281 $ 473 $ 516 Mexico $ 938 $ 2,806 $ 5,400 $ 7,454 $ 4,581 $ 3,746 $ (10,226) $ (12,187) Nicaragua $ 2 $ 42 $ 97 $ 123 $ 75 $ 83 $ 75 $ (6) Panama $ 417 $ 523 $ 617 $ 726 $ 823 $ 837 $ 963 $ 917 Paraguay $ 108 $ 230 $ 272 $ 318 $ 405 $ 647 $ 875 $ 789 Peru $ 77 $ 151 $ 147 $ 280 $ 383 $ 591 $ 903 $ 708 Saint Kitts & Nevis $ 17 $ 27 $ 14 $ 5 $ 9 $ 16 $ 15 $ 10 Saint Lucia $ 32 $ 30 $ 39 $ 31 $ 39 $ 30 $ 22 $ 36 Saint Vincent & Grenadines $ 14 $ 13 $ 20 $ 18 $ 18 $ 16 $ 18 $ 18 Suriname $ 101 $ 133 $ 116 $ 115 $ 98 $ 96 $ 122 $ 177 Trinidad and Tobago $ 290 $ 146 $ 170 $ 176 $ 210 $ (101) $ 45 $ (32) Uruguay $ (64) $ (38) $ 24 $ 12 $ 23 $ 172 $ 264 $ 263 Venezuela $ 1,800 $ 1,741 $ 3,488 $ 4,204 $ 3,277 $ 2,310 $ 2,645 $ 2,747 FTAA Total $ 10,250 $ 13,509 $ 22,814 $ 27,052 $ 24,668 $ 23,043 $ 10,689 $ 9,346

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57 U.S. Net Exports of Manufactures to FTAA Nations, 1989-2004 (Contd) (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Antigua and Barbuda $ 52 $ 73 $ 71 $ 113 $ 73 $ 63 $ 78 $ 80 Argentina $ 4,457 $ 4,584 $ 3,665 $ 3,151 $ 2,527 $ 280 $ 1,148 $ 1,800 Bahamas $ 527 $ 545 $ 564 $ 701 $ 647 $ 507 $ 504 $ 499 Barbados $ 168 $ 193 $ 185 $ 216 $ 190 $ 186 $ 214 $ 258 Belize $ 69 $ 76 $ 92 $ 139 $ 122 $ 90 $ 114 $ 85 Bolivia $ 110 $ 222 $ 127 $ 97 $ 74 $ 43 $ 5 $ (13) Brazil $ 7,416 $ 6,352 $ 3,978 $ 3,846 $ 3,946 $ (679) $ (2,777) $ (3,281) Canada $ 6,301 $ (215) $ (9,856) $ (14,579) $ (13,357) $ (14,051) $ (9,991) $ (12,856) Chile $ 3,131 $ 2,895 $ 1,624 $ 1,940 $ 1,413 $ 868 $ 1,208 $ 1,281 Colombia $ 3,394 $ 2,925 $ 1,487 $ 1,496 $ 1,636 $ 1,564 $ 1,093 $ 1,530 Costa Rica $ 284 $ 107 $ (929) $ (456) $ 216 $ 573 $ 626 $ 541 Dominica $ 18 $ 37 $ 18 $ 23 $ 18 $ 34 $ 24 $ 27 Dominican Republic $ (412) $ (492) $ (461) $ (216) $ (17) $ (191) $ (693) $ (529) Ecuador $ 1,103 $ 1,242 $ 588 $ 695 $ 1,034 $ 1,202 $ 1,001 $ 1,150 El Salvador $ (70) $ (47) $ (193) $ (2 23) $ (289) $ (526) $ (412) $ (384) Grenada $ 26 $ 38 $ 40 $ 47 $ 31 $ 46 $ 56 $ 58 Guatemala $ 240 $ 213 $ 1 $ (249) $ (397) $ (360) $ (380) $ (354) Guyana $ 75 $ 84 $ 89 $ 98 $ 82 $ 74 $ 60 $ 68 Haiti $ 102 $ 56 $ 83 $ 89 $ 97 $ 145 $ 79 $ 79 Honduras $ (126) $ (26) $ (312) $ (359 ) $ (516) $ (539) $ (524) $ (585) Jamaica $ 490 $ 487 $ 463 $ 504 $ 771 $ 846 $ 781 $ 771 Mexico $ (8,910) $ (13,536) $ (18,381) $ (17,252 ) $ (25,045) $ (30,254) $ (29,693) $ (30,066) Nicaragua $ (20) $ (27) $ (45) $ (60) $ (75) $ (122) $ (175) $ (261) Panama $ 1,038 $ 1,216 $ 1,277 $ 1,130 $ 875 $ 889 $ 1,079 $ 1,102 Paraguay $ 805 $ 703 $ 451 $ 390 $ 370 $ 412 $ 466 $ 597 Peru $ 706 $ 270 $ (28) $ (61) $ (32) $ (68) $ (395) $ (1,300) Saint Kitts & Nevis $ 2 $ 5 $ 5 $ 14 $ (3) $ (6) $ 3 $ 10 Saint Lucia $ 42 $ 47 $ 47 $ 53 $ 41 $ 56 $ 71 $ 52 Saint Vincent & Grenadines $ 29 $ 252 $ 70 $ 16 $ 20 $ 19 $ 26 $ 25 Suriname $ 146 $ 152 $ 109 $ 104 $ 130 $ 98 $ 160 $ 157 Trinidad and Tobago $ 434 $ 364 $ 148 $ 228 $ 48 $ 83 $ (329) $ (788) Uruguay $ 363 $ 387 $ 354 $ 294 $ 248 $ 53 $ 182 $ 185 Venezuela $ 4,426 $ 4,606 $ 3,534 $ 3,349 $ 3,602 $ 2,392 $ 675 $ 2,022 FTAA Total $ 26,418 $ 13,786 $ (11,135) $ (14,720) $ (21,519) $ (36,273) $ (35,715) $ (38,040) Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb Version 2.7.1

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58 U.S. Exports of Private Services to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Canada $ 8,465 $ 9,371 $ 10,703 $ 13,323 $ 15,684 $ 17,750 $ 17,362 $ 17,016 $ 17,084 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 14,206 $ 14,398 $ 15,669 $ 17,842 $ 21,957 $ 24,842 $ 26,672 $ 28,986 $ 32,466 South and Central America $ 11,472 $ 11,744 $ 13,027 $ 15,142 $ 18,447 $ 21,174 $ 23,157 $ 25,126 $ 27,8 35 Argentina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,784 $ 2,130 $ 2,459 Brazil N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 2,500 $ 2,944 $ 3,732 Chile N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ A $ 614 $ 773 $ 1,151 Mexico $ 4,531 $ 4,445 $ 4,911 $ 4,822 $ 8,590 $ 9,666 $ 10,466 $ 10,411 $ 11,334 Venezuela $ 937 $ 829 $ 914 $ 1,027 $ 1,273 $ 1,563 $ 1,993 $ 2,428 $ 2,139 Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 5,817 $ 6,462 $ 7,036 Other Western Hemisphere $ 2,740 $ 2,652 $ 2,642 $ 2,699 $ 3,509 $ 3,667 $ 3,513 $ 3,857 $ 4,630 Bermuda N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ A $ 436 $ 509 $ 601 Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 3,075 $ 3,348 $ 4,030 Total $ 22,671 $ 23,768 $ 26,372 $ 31,165 $ 37,641 $ 42,592 $ 44,034 $ 46,002 $ 49,550 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Canada $ 17,867 $ 19,452 $ 20,454 $ 19,398 $ 22,582 $ 24,529 $ 24,301 $ 24,676 $ 26,723 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 32,917 $ 35,612 $ 42,280 $ 46,828 $ 50,897 $ 54,524 $ 54,487 $ 52,901 $ 53,670 South and Central America $ 27,561 $ 29,774 $ 35,050 $ 38,417 $ 39,738 $ 42,594 $ 41,627 $ 38,884 $ 38,0 02 Argentina $ 2,394 $ 2,759 $ 3,383 $ 3,596 $ 3,655 $ 3,610 $ 3,244 $ 1,679 $ 1,709 Brazil $ 4,994 $ 5,208 $ 6,408 $ 6,620 $ 5,641 $ 6,289 $ 6,260 $ 5,000 $ 4,820 Chile $ 982 $ 1,180 $ 1,431 $ 1,367 $ 1,551 $ 1,435 $ 1,296 $ 1,177 $ 1,032 Mexico $ 8,707 $ 9,429 $ 10,796 $ 11,639 $ 12,828 $ 14,325 $ 15,169 $ 16,254 $ 16,599 Venezuela $ 2,494 $ 2,399 $ 2,682 $ 3,074 $ 3,282 $ 3,309 $ 3,298 $ 2,830 $ 2,189 Other $ 8,009 $ 8,796 $ 10,354 $ 12,127 $ 12,783 $ 13,628 $ 12,359 $ 11,944 $ 11,654 Other Western Hemisphere $ 5,359 $ 5,838 $ 7,229 $ 8,408 $ 11,159 $ 11,930 $ 12,860 $ 14,018 $ 1 5,669 Bermuda $ 782 $ 822 $ 937 $ 1,239 $ 1,541 $ 1,833 $ 3,453 $ 4,905 $ 6,142 Other $ 4,577 $ 5,016 $ 6,294 $ 7,169 $ 9,617 $ 10,096 $ 9,407 $ 9,113 $ 9,527 Total $ 50,784 $ 55,064 $ 62,734 $ 66,226 $ 73,480 $ 79,054 $ 78,788 $ 77,577 $ 80,393 Source: U.S. BEA Because some values were either unavailable or undisclosed, the total represents the sum of available data and might undercou nt the actual amount

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59 U.S. Imports of Private Services from the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Canada $ 6,311 $ 6,854 $ 8,350 $ 8,640 $ 9,130 $ 9,716 $ 8,434 $ 9,058 $ 9,828 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 13,010 $ 14,964 $ 15,648 $ 16,840 $ 18,643 $ 19,602 $ 20,583 $ 21,109 $ 23,005 South and Central America $ 7,522 $ 9,074 $ 10,241 $ 11,180 $ 12,737 $ 13,254 $ 13,478 $ 13,611 $ 14 ,879 Argentina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ A $ 458 $ 469 $ 575 Brazil N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 688 $ 744 $ 917 Chile N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 332 $ 364 $ 416 Mexico $ 3,681 $ 4,506 $ 5,068 $ 5,976 $ 6,731 $ 7,056 $ 7,275 $ 7,413 $ 7,849 Venezuela $ 480 $ 526 $ 619 $ 487 $ 659 $ 584 $ 635 $ 715 $ 763 Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 4,086 $ 3,907 $ 4,362 Other Western Hemisphere $ 5,488 $ 5,892 $ 5,407 $ 5,659 $ 5,905 $ 6,348 $ 7,105 $ 7,495 $ 8,125 Bermuda N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,691 $ 1,712 $ 1,925 Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 5,413 $ 5,783 $ 6,200 Total* $ 19,321 $ 21,818 $ 23,998 $ 25,480 $ 27,773 $ 29,318 $ 29,017 $ 30,167 $ 32,833 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Canada $ 10,956 $ 12,371 $ 13,817 $ 15,253 $ 16,195 $ 17,861 $ 17,384 $ 18,150 $ 19,146 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 23,546 $ 26,379 $ 28,897 $ 30,988 $ 33,905 $ 38,697 $ 41,230 $ 42,612 $ 48,974 South and Central America $ 15,533 $ 17,718 $ 19,208 $ 19,747 $ 20,422 $ 22,317 $ 21,080 $ 21,300 $ 22,2 53 Argentina $ 575 $ 784 $ 875 $ 865 $ 903 $ 977 $ 751 $ 585 $ 751 Brazil $ 1,176 $ 1,403 $ 1,775 $ 1,962 $ 1,726 $ 1,950 $ 1,851 $ 1,746 $ 1,898 Chile $ 429 $ 520 $ 540 $ 569 $ 824 $ 887 $ 857 $ 740 $ 650 Mexico $ 7,942 $ 8,921 $ 9,836 $ 9,816 $ 9,481 $ 11,000 $ 10,526 $ 11,021 $ 11,681 Venezuela $ 703 $ 769 $ 713 $ 739 $ 720 $ 608 $ 665 $ 467 $ 419 Other $ 4,720 $ 5,322 $ 5,464 $ 5,793 $ 6,767 $ 6,894 $ 6,430 $ 6,742 $ 6,850 Other Western Hemisphere $ 8,011 $ 8,660 $ 9,688 $ 11,241 $ 13,482 $ 16,381 $ 20,149 $ 21,311 $ 26 ,722 Bermuda $ 1,944 $ 2,175 $ 2,740 $ 4,088 $ 5,606 $ 6,941 $ 10,881 $ 12,575 $ 16,417 Other $ 6,067 $ 6,484 $ 6,947 $ 7,155 $ 7,880 $ 9,438 $ 9,270 $ 8,737 $ 10,306 Total* $ 34,502 $ 38,750 $ 42,714 $ 46,241 $ 50,100 $ 56,558 $ 58,613 $ 60,762 $ 68,120 Source: U.S. BEA Because some values were either unavailable or undisclosed, the total represents the sum of available data and might undercou nt the actual amount

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60 U.S. Net Exports of Private Services to the Western Hemisphere, 1986-2003 (Millions of Nominal Dollars) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Canada $ 2,154 $ 2,517 $ 2,353 $ 4,683 $ 6,554 $ 8,034 $ 8,928 $ 7,958 $ 7,256 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 1,196 $ (567) $ 21 $ 1,002 $ 3,314 $ 5,240 $ 6,089 $ 7,877 $ 9,461 South and Central America $ 3,950 $ 2,670 $ 2,786 $ 3,962 $ 5,710 $ 7,920 $ 9,679 $ 11,515 $ 1 2,956 Argentina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,326 $ 1,661 $ 1,884 Brazil N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,812 $ 2,200 $ 2,816 Chile N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 282 $ 409 $ 735 Mexico $ 850 $ (61) $ (157) $ (1,154) $ 1,859 $ 2,610 $ 3,191 $ 2,998 $ 3,485 Venezuela $ 457 $ 303 $ 295 $ 540 $ 614 $ 979 $ 1,357 $ 1,713 $ 1,375 Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,732 $ 2,555 $ 2,674 Other Western Hemisphere $ (2,748) $ (3,240) $ (2,765) $ (2,960) $ (2,396) $ (2,681) $ (3,592) $ (3,638) $ (3,495) Bermuda N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ (1,255) $ (1,204) $ (1,325) Other N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ (2,339) $ (2,435) $ (2,170) Total $ 3,350 $ 1,950 $ 2,374 $ 5,685 $ 9,868 $ 13,274 $ 15,017 $ 15,835 $ 16,717 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Canada $ 6,911 $ 7,081 $ 6,637 $ 4,146 $ 6,387 $ 6,668 $ 6,918 $ 6,526 $ 7,578 Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere $ 9,371 $ 9,233 $ 13,383 $ 15,840 $ 16,992 $ 15,827 $ 13,258 $ 10,288 $ 4,696 South and Central America $ 12,028 $ 12,056 $ 15,842 $ 18,670 $ 19,315 $ 20,277 $ 20,547 $ 17,583 $ 15,748 Argentina $ 1,818 $ 1,975 $ 2,508 $ 2,731 $ 2,752 $ 2,633 $ 2,493 $ 1,094 $ 958 Brazil $ 3,817 $ 3,805 $ 4,634 $ 4,658 $ 3,916 $ 4,340 $ 4,409 $ 3,255 $ 2,922 Chile $ 553 $ 660 $ 891 $ 798 $ 727 $ 548 $ 440 $ 437 $ 382 Mexico $ 765 $ 508 $ 960 $ 1,823 $ 3,347 $ 3,325 $ 4,643 $ 5,233 $ 4,918 Venezuela $ 1,791 $ 1,630 $ 1,969 $ 2,335 $ 2,562 $ 2,701 $ 2,632 $ 2,363 $ 1,769 Other $ 3,289 $ 3,474 $ 4,890 $ 6,334 $ 6,016 $ 6,734 $ 5,929 $ 5,202 $ 4,804 Other Western Hemisphere $ (2,652) $ (2,821) $ (2,459) $ (2,833) $ (2,324) $ (4,451) $ (7,288) $ (7,293) $(11,054) Bermuda $ (1,162) $ (1,352) $ (1,803) $ (2,850) $ (4,064) $ (5,108) $ (7,428) $ (7,670) $(10,274) Other $ (1,489) $ (1,468) $ (653) $ 14 $ 1,738 $ 659 $ 137 $ 376 $ (779) Total $ 16,282 $ 16,314 $ 20,020 $ 19,986 $ 23,380 $ 22,495 $ 20,175 $ 16,815 $ 12,273 Source: U.S. BEA Because some values were either unavailable or undisclosed, the total represents the sum of available data and might undercou nt the actual amount

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61 USDIA in FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Antigua and Barbuda $ 3 $ 2 $ 2 (D) $ 3 $ 5 $ 3 Argentina $ 2,864 $ 2,697 $ 2,735 $ 2,698 $ 2,931 $ 2,818 $ 2,682 Bahamas $ 3,121 $ 3,720 $ 3,345 $ 3,796 $ 2,959 $ 3,766 $ 4,462 Barbados $ 55 $ 62 $ 54 $ 92 $ 204 $ 181 $ 314 Belize $ 3 $ (44) $ (32) $ 7 $ (7) $ (7) $ 10 Bolivia $ 147 $ 158 $ 163 $ 201 $ 233 $ 195 $ 128 Brazil $ 9,290 $ 9,154 $ 9,425 $ 9,110 $ 9,498 $ 11,128 $ 12,767 Canada $ 43,511 $ 44,779 $ 47,498 $ 47,934 $ 52,006 $ 59,145 $ 63,900 Chile $ 311 $ 160 $ 162 $ 255 $ 473 $ 617 $ 988 Colombia $ 1,769 $ 2,135 $ 2,150 $ 2,188 $ 3,332 $ 3,148 $ 2,331 Costa Rica $ 142 $ 169 $ 164 $ 123 $ 127 $ 161 $ 196 Dominica $ $ (*) (*) $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 Dominican Republic $ 188 $ 246 $ 236 $ 227 $ 220 $ 185 $ 183 Ecuador $ 388 $ 443 $ 372 $ 352 $ 410 $ 475 $ 437 El Salvador $ 96 $ 102 $ 96 $ 77 $ 55 $ 54 $ 61 Grenada (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) $ 1 $ 1 Guatemala $ 233 $ 213 $ 244 $ 211 $ 175 $ 165 $ 183 Guyana $ 3 $ 6 $ 2 (*) (*) $ 1 $ 1 Haiti $ 19 $ 16 $ 20 $ 24 $ 27 $ 33 $ 26 Honduras $ 247 $ 215 $ 286 $ 169 $ 165 $ 183 $ 238 Jamaica $ 386 $ 306 $ 250 $ 107 $ 80 $ 71 $ 111 Mexico $ 5,019 $ 4,516 $ 4,829 $ 5,417 $ 5,060 $ 5,434 $ 6,312 Nicaragua $ 20 $ 18 $ 24 $ 27 $ 42 $ 141 $ 136 Panama $ 4,413 $ 4,863 $ 4,460 $ 4,069 $ 5,227 $ 6,294 $ 6,489 Paraguay $ 57 $ 39 $ 32 $ 38 $ 42 $ 45 $ 4 4 Peru $ 1,990 $ 2,082 $ 2,003 $ 1,368 $ 1,239 $ 1,141 $ 1,124 St. Kitts and Nevis $ (*) $ $ $ $ 2 $ 2 St. Lucia (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) St. Vincent and Grenadines $ $ $ 1 $ 1 (*) $ 2 $ 2 Suriname (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Trinidad and Tobago $ 931 $ 862 $ 663 $ 476 $ 412 $ 381 $ 400 Uruguay $ 114 $ 100 $ 87 $ 93 $ 112 $ 127 $ 116 Venezuela $ 2,631 $ 1,708 $ 1,752 $ 1,562 $ 1,920 $ 2,045 $ 1,714 Total $ 77,951 $ 78,727 $ 81,023 $ 80,622 $ 86,946 $ 97,938 $ 105,362

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62 USDIA in FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Antigua and Barbuda $ 3 $ 3 $ 4 $ 5 $ 5 $ 1 $ 1 Argentina $ 2,215 $ 2,531 $ 2,831 $ 3,327 $ 4,442 $ 5,692 $ 7,660 Bahamas $ 4,577 $ 4,004 $ 3,864 $ 4,167 $ 3,138 $ 2,808 $ 1,768 Barbados $ 141 $ 252 $ 291 $ 340 $ 471 $ 391 $ 698 Belize $ 11 (D) $ 12 (D) (D) (D) $ 35 Bolivia $ 184 $ 196 $ 185 $ 122 $ 191 $ 174 $ 300 Brazil $ 14,025 $ 14,384 $ 14,997 $ 16,313 $ 16,772 $ 17,885 $ 25,002 Canada $ 63,948 $ 69,508 $ 70,711 $ 68,690 $ 69,922 $ 74,221 $ 83,498 Chile $ 1,412 $ 1,896 $ 2,069 $ 2,544 $ 2,749 $ 5,062 $ 6,216 Colombia $ 1,660 $ 1,677 $ 1,876 $ 3,053 $ 2,930 $ 3,463 $ 3,506 Costa Rica $ 213 $ 251 $ 417 $ 274 $ 298 $ 607 $ 921 Dominica (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) $ 3 $ 33 Dominican Republic (D) $ 529 $ 661 $ 779 $ 1,039 $ 266 $ 330 Ecuador $ 301 $ 280 $ 321 $ 295 $ 555 $ 784 $ 889 El Salvador $ 67 $ 90 $ 83 $ 83 $ 105 $ 146 $ 15 0 Grenada (*) $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 2 (*) $ 1 Guatemala $ 111 $ 130 $ 107 $ 115 $ 139 $ 200 $ 233 Guyana $ 3 $ 7 (D) (D) (D) $ 97 $ 111 Haiti $ 26 $ 32 $ 18 $ 31 $ 30 $ 18 $ 14 Honduras $ 251 $ 262 $ 255 $ 239 $ 159 $ 140 $ 68 Jamaica $ 383 $ 625 $ 763 $ 892 $ 1,049 $ 1,167 $ 1,287 Mexico $ 8,264 $ 10,313 $ 12,501 $ 13,730 $ 15,221 $ 16,968 $ 16,873 Nicaragua $ 16 (D) $ 80 (D) (D) (D) $ 88 Panama $ 8,913 $ 9,289 $ 10,484 $ 11,038 $ 12,043 $ 11,905 $ 15,123 Paraguay $ 42 $ 44 $ 46 $ 49 $ 64 $ 87 $ 8 3 Peru $ 813 $ 599 $ 492 $ 620 $ 622 $ 971 $ 1,335 St. Kitts and Nevis $ 2 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 3 $ 3 St. Lucia (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) St. Vincent and Grenadines (*) $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 2 (*) (*) Suriname $ 116 $ 134 $ 147 $ 139 $ 163 $ 76 $ 83 Trinidad and Tobago (D) $ 485 $ 510 $ 565 $ 691 $ 529 $ 673 Uruguay $ 101 $ 95 $ 184 $ 261 $ 285 (D) $ 345 Venezuela $ 932 $ 1,087 $ 1,427 $ 1,972 $ 2,362 $ 3,087 $ 3,634 Total $ 108,730 $ 118,706 $ 125,339 $ 129,648 $ 135,450 $ 146,751 $ 170,961

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63 USDIA in FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Antigua and Barbuda $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 (D) $ 67 $ 89 $ 93 Argentina $ 7,893 $ 10,980 $ 12,327 $ 18,865 $ 17,488 $ 15,535 $ 11,247 Bahamas $ 1,876 $ 1,569 $ (282) $ 3,740 $ 3,291 $ 5,533 $ 7,605 Barbados $ 848 $ 787 $ 929 $ 3,030 $ 2,141 $ 2,240 $ 1,571 Belize $ 43 $ 57 $ 59 $ 59 $ 103 $ 37 $ 52 Bolivia $ 252 $ 248 $ 349 $ 504 $ 403 $ 439 $ 408 Brazil $ 29,105 $ 35,778 $ 37,195 $ 37,184 $ 36,717 $ 32,027 $ 27,615 Canada $ 89,592 $ 96,626 $ 98,200 $ 119,590 $ 132,472 $ 152,601 $ 170,169 Chile $ 8,156 $ 9,148 $ 9,029 $ 10,177 $ 10,052 $ 10,526 $ 9,991 Colombia $ 3,531 $ 4,097 $ 3,749 $ 3,775 $ 3,693 $ 3,122 $ 2,557 Costa Rica $ 1,223 $ 1,529 $ 2,074 $ 1,493 $ 1,716 $ 1,835 $ 1,802 Dominica $ 36 $ 38 $ 39 $ 46 $ 45 $ 43 $ 4 5 Dominican Republic $ 400 $ 488 $ 645 $ 968 $ 1,143 $ 1,116 $ 983 Ecuador $ 922 $ 838 $ 904 $ 1,116 $ 832 $ 579 $ 1,179 El Salvador $ 175 $ 219 $ 555 $ 621 $ 540 $ 464 $ 684 Grenada $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 4 $ 6 $ 7 $ 7 Guatemala $ 331 $ 358 $ 498 $ 478 $ 835 $ 311 $ 303 Guyana $ 126 $ 132 $ 125 $ 177 $ 131 $ 143 $ 157 Haiti $ 14 $ 24 (D) $ 70 $ 64 $ 55 $ 63 Honduras $ 129 $ 183 $ 111 $ 347 $ 399 $ 227 $ 181 Jamaica $ 1,583 $ 1,952 $ 1,960 $ 2,296 $ 2,483 $ 2,957 $ 3,103 Mexico $ 19,351 $ 24,050 $ 26,657 $ 37,151 $ 39,352 $ 52,544 $ 55,724 Nicaragua $ 80 $ 137 $ 156 $ 119 $ 140 $ 157 $ 250 Panama $ 16,335 $ 22,016 $ 25,924 $ 33,493 $ 30,758 $ 5,141 $ 5,844 Paraguay $ 106 $ 146 $ 204 $ 222 $ 419 $ 414 $ 114 Peru $ 2,281 $ 2,147 $ 2,148 $ 3,148 $ 3,130 $ 3,197 $ 2,809 St. Kitts and Nevis $ 3 $ 3 $ 3 $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) St. Lucia (D) (D) $ 39 (D) $ 24 $ 19 $ 17 St. Vincent and Grenadines (*) (*) (*) $ 11 (D) $ 6 $ 6 Suriname $ 99 $ 154 $ 64 (D) $ 28 $ 40 $ 97 Trinidad and Tobago $ 786 $ 639 $ 1,004 $ 1,508 $ 1,550 $ 2,025 $ 2 ,375 Uruguay $ 419 $ 494 $ 577 $ 794 $ 789 $ 711 $ 620 Venezuela $ 4,474 $ 5,339 $ 5,912 $ 7,385 $ 10,531 $ 10,069 $ 10,330 Total $ 190,171 $ 220,178 $ 231,157 $ 288,370 $ 301,341 $ 304,208 $ 318,000 Source: U.S. BEA. Notes: An asterisk "(*)" indicates a value between -$500,000 and $500,000. A "(D)" indicates that data have been suppressed to avoid disclosure of data of individual companies.

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64 FDIUS from FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Antigua and Barbuda N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ $ Argentina $ 130 $ 194 $ 237 $ 280 $ 292 $ 305 $ 291 Bahamas $ 164 $ 175 $ 158 $ 154 $ 309 $ 179 (D) Barbados (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $ 32 $ 72 Belize (*) (D) (*) (D) (D) $ $ Bolivia $ $ $ (2) $ $ $ $ (1) Brazil $ 100 $ 84 $ 160 $ 201 $ 182 $ 293 $ 286 Canada $ 11,708 $ 11,434 $ 15,286 $ 17,131 $ 20,318 $ 24,684 $ 26,566 Chile $ (12) $ 3 $ (5) $ 16 $ 14 $ 29 $ 34 Colombia $ 51 $ 63 $ 69 $ 75 $ 78 $ 59 $ 68 Costa Rica $ (1) (*) (*) (*) (*) $ 1 $ 1 Dominica N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ $ Dominican Republic $ (*) $ $ (2) $ (2) (*) $ Ecuador $ 26 $ 32 $ 35 $ 41 $ 45 $ 10 $ 7 El Salvador $ 12 (D) (D) (D) (D) (*) (*) Grenada N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (D) (D) Guatemala $ 2 $ 2 $ 7 $ 8 $ 8 $ (1) $ (2) Guyana N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ $ Haiti $ $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 (*) (*) Honduras $ 5 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 6 $ 11 $ 11 Jamaica (*) (*) (*) $ 5 (*) (D) (D) Mexico $ 259 $ 244 $ 308 $ 533 $ 847 $ 180 $ 218 Nicaragua $ (1) (*) (*) $ 1 $ 1 (*) (*) Panama $ 2,168 $ 2,073 $ 1,924 $ 2,204 $ 2,202 $ 2,627 $ 2,878 Paraguay (*) $ 2 $ (2) $ (7) $ 1 $ $ Peru $ $ 3 $ 3 $ 4 (D) $ 6 $ 5 St. Kitts and Nevis (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $ $ 2 St. Lucia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ $ St. Vincent and the Grenadines N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ $ Suriname $ $ 2 $ $ $ $ $ (2) Trinidad and Tobago (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) $ (1) (*) Uruguay $ 2 $ 3 (D) $ 2 $ 2 $ 5 $ (4) Venezuela $ 66 $ 24 $ 48 $ 103 $ 476 $ 411 $ 540 Total $ 14,679 $ 14,345 $ 18,233 $ 20,756 $ 24,780 $ 28,830 $ 30,970

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65 FDIUS from FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Antigua and Barbuda $ $ $ $ 32 $ 31 $ 30 $ 28 Argentina $ 370 $ 420 $ 407 $ 307 $ 297 $ 335 $ 673 Bahamas $ (52) $ 1,535 $ (881) $ 613 $ 1,276 $ 1,023 $ 1,286 Barbados $ 51 $ 191 $ 124 $ 858 $ 888 $ 408 $ 590 Belize $ (1) (D) $ (1) $ (1) $ $ $ Bolivia $ $ (2) (*) (D) (D) (D) (D) Brazil $ 428 $ 377 $ 534 $ 449 $ 653 $ 625 $ 750 Canada $ 30,370 $ 29,544 $ 36,834 $ 37,515 $ 40,373 $ 41,219 $ 45,618 Chile $ 40 $ 5 $ 29 $ 24 $ 4 $ 4 $ 2 Colombia $ 53 $ 55 $ 59 $ 68 $ 58 $ 44 $ 30 Costa Rica $ 1 $ (2) $ 3 $ (2) $ (2) $ (12) $ (7) Dominica $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Dominican Republic $ $ $ $ 2 (D) (D) (D) Ecuador $ 5 $ 6 $ 5 $ 5 $ 4 $ 1 $ 5 El Salvador (*) (*) $ (1) $ 1 (*) $ (2) $ (3) Grenada (D) (D) (D) $ (*) (*) (*) Guatemala $ (7) $ (4) $ (12) $ (6) (D) $ (16) $ (40) Guyana (*) $ $ $ (2) $ $ $ Haiti (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) $ (1) (*) Honduras $ 10 $ 8 $ 7 (*) $ (1) $ (4) $ (6) Jamaica (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $ (2) Mexico $ 350 $ 575 $ 747 $ 1,406 $ 1,244 $ 2,069 $ 1,850 Nicaragua (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) Panama $ 3,392 $ 4,188 $ 4,500 $ 5,069 $ 4,652 $ 4,253 $ 4,939 Paraguay $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Peru $ 5 (D) $ 13 (D) $ 33 (D) (D) St. Kitts and Nevis $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 3 $ 2 $ 1 (*) St. Lucia $ $ $ $ $ $ $ St. Vincent and the Grenadines $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Suriname $ $ $ (*) (*) (*) $ (1) Trinidad and Tobago $ (1) (*) $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 3 $ 3 Uruguay $ 10 $ 9 $ 16 $ 1 $ 35 $ 23 $ 1 Venezuela $ 1,163 $ 496 $ 512 $ 394 $ (445) $ (312) $ (152) Total $ 36,189 $ 37,403 $ 42,898 $ 46,737 $ 49,103 $ 49,691 $ 55,564

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66 FDIUS from FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Antigua and Barbuda $ 28 $ 22 $ 21 $ 21 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 Argentina $ 438 $ 408 $ 420 $ 389 $ 364 $ 401 $ 1,096 Bahamas $ 1,883 $ 1,702 $ 1,619 $ 1,581 $ 1,254 $ 1,153 $ 1,332 Barbados $ 153 $ 552 $ 245 $ 1,244 $ 1,560 $ 1,523 $ 2,755 Belize $ $ $ $ N/A N/A N/A Bolivia (D) (D) (D) (D) $ (4) $ (4) $ (6) Brazil $ 697 $ 706 $ 625 $ 735 $ 882 $ 598 $ 971 Canada $ 54,836 $ 65,175 $ 72,696 $ 90,559 $114,309 $102,127 $ 92,041 Chile $ 9 $ 59 $ 33 $ 42 $ 24 $ (186) $ (92) Colombia $ 16 $ 18 $ 40 $ 24 $ 2 $ (79) (D) Costa Rica $ 1 $ 1 $ 7 $ (55) $ 2 $ (2) $ (8) Dominica $ $ (*) $ $ $ $ Dominican Republic $ 2 $ 19 $ 21 $ 18 $ 79 $ 50 $ 57 Ecuador $ 6 $ 22 $ 26 $ 25 $ 29 $ 33 $ 31 El Salvador $ (1) $ 2 $ (1) $ (1) $ 2 $ 2 $ (2) Grenada (*) (*) $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 Guatemala (D) $ (10) $ (14) $ (26) $ (10) $ (14) (D) Guyana $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ (3) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) Haiti $ 1 $ (1) (*) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ Honduras $ (8) $ (4) $ (2) $ 1 $ (3) $ (2) $ (2) Jamaica (*) $ (4) $ (4) $ (7) $ (5) (D) $ (5) Mexico $ 1,641 $ 3,100 $ 2,055 $ 1,999 $ 7,462 $ 7,336 $ 7,857 Nicaragua $ (9) (D) (D) (D) $ (4) (*) (*) Panama $ 6,014 $ 5,599 $ 6,227 $ 5,275 $ 3,819 $ 4,391 $ 5,668 Paraguay $ $ (*) $ $ $ (1) (*) Peru $ 21 $ 17 $ 27 $ (5) $ (13) $ (137) (D) St. Kitts and Nevis $ (2) $ $ $ N/A N/A N/A St. Lucia $ $ (*) $ $ $ (1) $ St. Vincent and the Grenadines $ $ 5 $ 4 $ 4 $ 3 $ 3 $ 3 Suriname $ (1) $ $ $ N/A N/A N/A Trinidad and Tobago (D) (D) (D) $ 31 $ 40 (D) $ 35 Uruguay $ 14 $ 58 $ 46 $ 40 $ 40 $ 48 $ 54 Venezuela $ (4) $ (332) $ (483) $ (65) $ 792 $ 3,954 $ 4,447 Total $ 65,734 $ 77,113 $ 83,612 $101,830 $130,647 $121,216 $116,256 Source: U.S. BEA. Notes: An asterisk "(*)" indicates a value between -$500,000 and $500,000. A "(D)" indicates that data have been suppressed to avoid disclosure of data of individual companies.

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67 USDIA Net of FDIUS for FTAA Nations, 1982-2002 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Antigua and Barbuda N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 5 $ 3 Argentina $ 2,734 $ 2,503 $ 2,498 $ 2,418 $ 2,639 $ 2,513 $ 2,391 Bahamas $ 2,957 $ 3,545 $ 3,187 $ 3,642 $ 2,650 $ 3,587 N/A Barbados N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 149 $ 242 Belize N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ (7) $ 10 Bolivia $ 147 $ 158 $ 165 $ 201 $ 233 $ 195 $ 129 Brazil $ 9,190 $ 9,070 $ 9,265 $ 8,909 $ 9,316 $ 10,835 $ 12,481 Canada $ 31,803 $ 33,345 $ 32,212 $ 30,803 $ 31,688 $ 34,461 $ 37,334 Chile $ 323 $ 157 $ 167 $ 239 $ 459 $ 588 $ 954 Colombia $ 1,718 $ 2,072 $ 2,081 $ 2,113 $ 3,254 $ 3,089 $ 2,263 Costa Rica $ 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 160 $ 195 Dominica N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1 $ 1 Dominican Republic $ 188 N/A $ 236 $ 229 $ 222 N/A $ 183 Ecuador $ 362 $ 411 $ 337 $ 311 $ 365 $ 465 $ 430 El Salvador $ 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Grenada N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Guatemala $ 231 $ 211 $ 237 $ 203 $ 167 $ 166 $ 185 Guyana N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1 $ 1 Haiti $ 19 $ 15 $ 19 $ 23 $ 26 N/A N/A Honduras $ 242 $ 209 $ 280 $ 163 $ 159 $ 172 $ 227 Jamaica N/A N/A N/A $ 102 N/A N/A N/A Mexico $ 4,760 $ 4,272 $ 4,521 $ 4,884 $ 4,213 $ 5,254 $ 6,094 Nicaragua $ 21 N/A N/A $ 26 $ 41 N/A N/A Panama $ 2,245 $ 2,790 $ 2,536 $ 1,865 $ 3,025 $ 3,667 $ 3,611 Paraguay N/A $ 37 $ 34 $ 45 $ 41 $ 45 $ 44 Peru $ 1,990 $ 2,079 $ 2,000 $ 1,364 N/A $ 1,135 $ 1,119 St. Kitts and Nevis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 2 $ St. Lucia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A St. Vincent and the Grenadines N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ A $ 2 $ 2 Suriname N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Trinidad and Tobago N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 382 N/A Uruguay $ 112 $ 97 N/A $ 91 $ 110 $ 122 $ 120 Venezuela $ 2,565 $ 1,684 $ 1,704 $ 1,459 $ 1,444 $ 1,634 $ 1,174 Total $ 61,834 $ 62,655 $ 61,479 $ 59,090 $ 60,052 $ 68,623 $ 69,193

PAGE 72

68 USDIA Net of FDIUS for FT AA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Antigua and Barbuda $ 3 $ 3 $ 4 $ (27) $ (26) $ (29) $ (27) Argentina $ 1,845 $ 2,111 $ 2,424 $ 3,020 $ 4,145 $ 5,357 $ 6,987 Bahamas $ 4,629 $ 2,469 $ 4,745 $ 3,554 $ 1,862 $ 1,785 $ 482 Barbados $ 90 $ 61 $ 167 $ (518) $ (417) $ (17) $ 108 Belize $ 12 N/A $ 13 N/A N/A N/A $ 35 Bolivia $ 184 $ 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Brazil $ 13,597 $ 14,007 $ 14,463 $ 15,864 $ 16,119 $ 17,260 $ 24,252 Canada $ 33,578 $ 39,964 $ 33,877 $ 31,175 $ 29,549 $ 33,002 $ 37,880 Chile $ 1,372 $ 1,891 $ 2,040 $ 2,520 $ 2,745 $ 5,058 $ 6,214 Colombia $ 1,607 $ 1,622 $ 1,817 $ 2,985 $ 2,872 $ 3,419 $ 3,476 Costa Rica $ 212 $ 253 $ 414 $ 276 $ 300 $ 619 $ 928 Dominica N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 3 $ 33 Dominican Republic N/A $ 529 $ 661 $ 777 N/A N/A N/A Ecuador $ 296 $ 274 $ 316 $ 290 $ 551 $ 783 $ 884 El Salvador N/A N/A $ 84 $ 82 N/A $ 148 $ 153 Grenada N/A N/A N/A $ 2 N/A N/A N/A Guatemala $ 118 $ 134 $ 119 $ 121 N/A $ 216 $ 273 Guyana N/A $ 7 N/A N/A N/A $ 97 $ 111 Haiti N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 19 N/A Honduras $ 241 $ 254 $ 248 N/A $ 160 $ 144 $ 74 Jamaica N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 1,289 Mexico $ 7,914 $ 9,738 $ 11,754 $ 12,324 $ 13,977 $ 14,899 $ 15,023 Nicaragua N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Panama $ 5,521 $ 5,101 $ 5,984 $ 5,969 $ 7,391 $ 7,652 $ 10,184 Paraguay $ 42 $ 44 $ 46 $ 49 $ 64 $ 87 $ 83 Peru $ 808 N/A $ 479 N/A $ 589 N/A N/A St. Kitts and Nevis $ $ (1) $ (1) $ (2) $ (1) $ 2 N/A St. Lucia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A St. Vincent and the Grenadines N/A $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 2 N/A N/A Suriname $ 116 $ 134 $ 147 N/A N/A N/A $ 84 Trinidad and Tobago N/A N/A $ 509 $ 564 $ 690 $ 526 $ 670 Uruguay $ 91 $ 86 $ 168 $ 260 $ 250 N/A $ 344 Venezuela $ (231) $ 591 $ 915 $ 1,578 $ 2,807 $ 3,399 $ 3,786 Total $ 72,045 $ 79,471 $ 81,394 $ 80,865 $ 83,629 $ 94,429 $ 113,326

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69 USDIA Net of FDIUS for FT AA Nations, 1982-2002 (Contd) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Antigua and Barbuda $ (27) $ (21) $ (19) N/A $ 47 $ 69 $ 73 Argentina $ 7,455 $ 10,572 $ 11,907 $ 18,476 $ 17,124 $ 15,134 $ 10,151 Bahamas $ (7) $ (133) $ (1,901) $ 2,159 $ 2,037 $ 4,380 $ 6,273 Barbados $ 695 $ 235 $ 684 $ 1,786 $ 581 $ 717 $ (1,184) Belize $ 43 $ 57 $ 59 $ 59 N/A N/A N/A Bolivia N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 407 $ 443 $ 414 Brazil $ 28,408 $ 35,072 $ 36,570 $ 36,449 $ 35,835 $ 31,429 $ 26,644 Canada $ 34,756 $ 31,451 $ 25,504 $ 29,031 $ 18,163 $ 50,474 $ 78,128 Chile $ 8,147 $ 9,089 $ 8,996 $ 10,135 $ 10,028 $ 10,712 $ 10,083 Colombia $ 3,515 $ 4,079 $ 3,709 $ 3,751 $ 3,691 $ 3,201 N/A Costa Rica $ 1,222 $ 1,528 $ 2,067 $ 1,548 $ 1,714 $ 1,837 $ 1,810 Dominica $ 36 $ 38 N/A $ 46 $ 45 $ 43 $ 45 Dominican Republic $ 398 $ 469 $ 624 $ 950 $ 1,064 $ 1,066 $ 926 Ecuador $ 916 $ 816 $ 878 $ 1,091 $ 803 $ 546 $ 1,148 El Salvador $ 176 $ 217 $ 556 $ 622 $ 538 $ 462 $ 686 Grenada N/A N/A $ (4) $ (1) $ 1 $ 2 $ 2 Guatemala N/A $ 368 $ 512 $ 504 $ 845 $ 325 N/A Guyana $ 127 $ 133 $ 126 $ 180 $ 132 $ 144 $ 158 Haiti $ 13 $ 25 N/A $ 71 $ 65 $ 56 $ 63 Honduras $ 137 $ 187 $ 113 $ 346 $ 402 $ 229 $ 183 Jamaica N/A $ 1,956 $ 1,964 $ 2,303 $ 2,488 N/A $ 3,108 Mexico $ 17,710 $ 20,950 $ 24,602 $ 35,152 $ 31,890 $ 45,208 $ 47,867 Nicaragua $ 89 N/A N/A N/A $ 144 N/A N/A Panama $ 10,321 $ 16,417 $ 19,697 $ 28,218 $ 26,939 $ 750 $ 176 Paraguay $ 106 $ 146 N/A $ 222 $ 419 $ 415 N/A Peru $ 2,260 $ 2,130 $ 2,121 $ 3,153 $ 3,143 $ 3,334 N/A St. Kitts and Nevis $ 5 $ 3 $ 3 $ (1) N/A N/A N/A St. Lucia N/A N/A N/A N/A $ 24 $ 20 $ 17 St. Vincent and the Grenadines N/A N/A N/A $ 7 N/A $ 3 $ 3 Suriname $ 100 $ 154 $ 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A Trinidad and Tobago N/A N/A N/A $ 1,477 $ 1,510 N/A $ 2,340 Uruguay $ 405 $ 436 $ 531 $ 754 $ 749 $ 663 $ 566 Venezuela $ 4,478 $ 5,671 $ 6,395 $ 7,450 $ 9,739 $ 6,115 $ 5,883 Total $ 121,484 $ 142,045 $ 145,758 $ 185,938 $ 170,567 $ 177,777 $ 195,563 Source: U.S. BEA N/A Not Available

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70 Appendix B Citrus and Sugarcane Production in Florida FTAA Citrus Production, 1986 2002 From 1986 2002 total citrus production among the FTAA nations has increased by 35.4%, increasing from 31.8M metric tons in 1986 to 49.2M metric tons in 2002. Over this time period FTAA citrus production has accounted for mo re than 85% of the worlds total citrus production. Brazil, the United Stat es, and Mexico are the three la rgest citrus producing nations among FTAA nations and in the world. Brazil is the largest citrus pr oducing nation while the United States is the second largest producing nation. Chart C1 below displays the distribution of FTAA citrus production from 1986 2002, and the share of production represented by Brazil, the U.S. (excluding Florida), Mexico, the state of Florida, and the remaining FTAA nations From 1986 2002 the share of total FTAA production has decreased slightly for the U.S. and Brazil, while Mexico, Florida, and the remaining FTAA nations slightly increased thei r share of FTAA citrus production. Mexico has experienced the largest gains in share of total FTAA citrus producti on, which may be related to the reduction in trade barriers between the U.S. and Mexico as a result of NAFTA. In 2002, Florida accounted for 19.1% of the total FTAA citrus production Chart C1 Distribution of FTAA Citrus Production, 1986 20020% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002Percent of FTAA Citrus Production Florida Rest of U.S. Brazil Mexico Remaining FTAASource: Food and Agricultural Division of the United Na tions, and the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. Florida Citrus Production, 1984 2004 Chart C2 displays total Florida citrus producti on, orange production, and grapefruit production from 1984 2004. Total Florida citrus production in cludes oranges, grapefruit, tangerines, temples, tangelos, K-Early citrus fruit, limes, and lemons. However, we only separately report statistics for oranges and grapefruit because thes e two fruits account for more than 96% of total citrus production in Florida.

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71 Chart C2 Florida Citrus Production, 1984 20040 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,0001 9 8 4 8 5 1 9 8 5 8 6 1 9 8 6 8 7 1 9 8 7 8 8 1 9 8 8 8 9 1 9 8 9 9 0 1 9 9 0 9 1 1 9 9 1 9 2 1 9 9 2 9 3 1 9 9 3 9 4 1 9 9 4 9 5 1 9 9 5 9 6 1 9 9 6 9 7 1 9 9 7 9 8 1 9 98 9 9 1 9 9 9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 0 3 0 4 *1,000 Boxes Oranges Grapefruit Total Citrus Production Source: Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. Preliminary Estimate. In 2004 oranges accounted for 82.9% of Florida s total citrus production, while grapefruit accounted for 14.0% of Floridas citrus production. Gr owth in total citrus pr oduction in Florida is directly related to orange produc tion. Production of grapefruit ha s remained relatively constant from 1984 2004, while orange produc tion has more than doubled. Chart C3 Florida Oran g e and Grapefruit Production Value, 1984 2004$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,0001 9 8 4 8 5 1 9 8 5 8 6 1 9 8 6 8 7 1 9 8 7 8 8 1 9 8 8 8 9 1 9 8 9 9 0 1 9 9 0 9 1 1 9 9 1 9 2 1 9 9 2 9 3 1 9 9 3 9 4 1 9 9 4 9 5 1 9 9 5 9 6 1 9 9 6 9 7 1 9 9 7 9 8 1 9 98 9 9 1 9 9 9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 0 3 0 4 *Value of Production (1,000 of nominal dollars) Oranges GrapefruitSource: Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. Preliminary Estimate.

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72 Chart C3 displays the fluctuation in value of Florida orange and grapefruit production from 1984 2004. In 1984, the value of orange production was $737M while the value of grapefruit $161M. In 2004 th e value of orange production st ood at $570M, and the value of grapefruit stood at $119M. The value of production of Florida grapefruit has been less variable than that of oranges. Additionally, the valu e of orange production ha s decreased even though actual orange production has doubled. The variat ion in prices among oran ges and grapefruit can aid in explain the declining value of pr oduction for both oranges and grapefruit. Chart C4 clearly displays how the prices of both oranges and grapefruit have fallen. The price of oranges has decreased $4.75 per box or 66.9%, from $7.10 in 1984 to $2.35 in 2004. Grapefruit prices have remained fairly stable, only falling $0.76 from 1984 2004. Chart C4 Florida Orange a nd Grapefruit Prices, 1984 2004$0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.001 9 8 4 8 5 1 9 8 5 8 6 1 9 8 6 8 7 1 9 8 7 8 8 1 9 8 8 8 9 1 9 8 9 9 0 1 9 9 0 9 1 1 9 9 1 9 2 1 9 9 2 9 3 1 9 9 3 9 4 1 9 9 4 9 5 1 9 9 5 9 6 1 9 9 6 9 7 1 9 9 7 9 8 1 9 98 9 9 1 9 9 9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 0 3 0 4 *Price Per Box Oranges Grapefruit Source: Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. *Preliminary Estimate. FTAA Sugarcane Production, 1986 2002 From 1986 2002 total sugarcane producti on among the FTAA nations increased by 28.0%, increasing from 415M metric tons in 1986 to 576M metric tons in 2002. Brazil, the United States, and Mexico are the top three sugarcane producing nations among FTAA nations, and among the top ten sugarcane producers in the worl d. Currently, Brazil is the largest sugarcaneproducing nation in the world. Chart S1 displays the distribution of FTAA s ugarcane production from 1986 2002, and the share of production represented by Brazil, the U.S. (excluding Florida) Mexico, the state of Florida, and the remaining FTAA nations. Fr om 1986 2002 the share of total FTAA production has decreased slightly for the U.S., Mexico, Flor ida, and the remaining FTAA nations while Brazil has increased their share of FTAA sugarcane production.

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73 Chart S1 Distribution of FTAA Su g arcane Production, 1986 20020% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%1 986 1 987 1 988 1 989 1 990 1 991 1 992 1 993 1 994 1 995 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002Percent of Sugar Cane Production Florida Rest of U.S. Brazil Mexico Remaining FTAA NationsSource: Food and A g ricultural Division of the United Nations and the Florida A g ricultural Statistics Service. Florida Sugarcane Production, 1986 2002 In 2002, Florida sugarcane used for sugar and seed production stood at 17,653 tons with a value of $559M, and an average price of $32 per box. Table S1 reports Florida sugarcane production, price, and value of production from 1986 2002. Table S1 Florida Su g arcane for Su g ar and Seed: Production, Price and Value of Production 1986 2002 Year Production (1,000 tons) Season Average Price (Nominal Dollars) Value of Production (1,000 Nominal Dollars) 1986 13,446 $29 $389,934 1987 13,469 $31 $416,192 1988 13,304 $33 $433,710 1989 13,188 $31 $404,872 1990 15,407 $32 $485,321 1991 15,461 $31 $479,291 1992 14,707 $30 $438,269 1993 15,152 $30 $460,621 1994 14,937 $31 $457,072 1995 15,122 $31 $462,733 1996 14,498 $29 $426,241 1997 16,236 $29 $465,973 1998 17,925 $30 $528,788

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74 Table S1 Continued 1999 16,100 $27 $437,920 2000 17,041 $29 $487,373 2001 16,338 $32 $517,915 2002 17,653 $32 $559,600 Source: Florida Agricultural Statistics Service Florida production of sugarcane follows a st eadily increasing trend, while the value of production varies with the price per box of sugarcane. From 1986 2002 the price per box of sugarcane fluctuated between $27 and $32 per bo x, while the value of produced ranged from $389M $559M. Net Direct Employment Effects Alternate Scenario In Section 4 of this report, we used predictions of output change from a USDA report to estimate the effect of an FTAA on Floridas agri culture crop and animal production sub-sectors. In their study, the USDA reported no predicted cha nge in output for horticulture the category to which citrus and sugarcane belong crops. We recognize that the USDA reports national net figures, so for the purpose of sensitivity anal ysis, we use the IMPLAN software to model an alternate scenario in which we reduce citrus and sugarcane output in Florida by 0.6%, the greatest decrease predicted by the USDA for any crop gro up. We simultaneously retain the other crop production output changes previously modeled. Table B shows the estimated net direct employment effect based on the alternate scenario. Table B Crop Production Se nsitivity Analysis Alternate Scenario Industry Job Loss% Loss Grain Farming 0.10.06% Fruit Farming* 84.00.35% Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Farming 107.60.60% All Other Crop Farming 5.10.02% Total 196.80.27% Fruit Farming includes citrus and other fruits, we scaled the 0.6% decrease to model only a reduction in citrus output Our prior modeling yielded a direct loss of 0.3 Crop Production (NAICS 111) jobs. Under the alternate scenario, we estimate enactment of an FTAA would result in the loss of 196.8 jobs to that sub-sector, or 0.27% of the total. More than half of this estimated job loss is predicted to come from the Sugarcane and Sugar Beet industry. We ran the new direct employment loss th rough the REMI model, and found no significant differences from the economic effects reported in Section 4.

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75 Appendix C Description of Input-Output Models The Center for Economic Development Re search (CEDR), College of Business Administration, University of Sou th Florida (USF), uses the IMPLAN ProfessionalTM Social Accounting and Impact Analysis Software (an input -output model) for economic impact analyses. Data (2002) for each county in the state of Fl orida are available. County-wide data may be aggregated to focus on a region, such as th e 7-county region Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk and Sarasota of specia l importance to the USF community. Dr. Dennis Colie generated the following description of the model over several years based on documentation from the software developers. Economic impact analysis is based on conditi onal, predictive mode ls of the form: If ...then... An input-output model is one type of m odel used in impact analysis. Other generally accepted models are the economic base model and the income-expenditure model. Compared with the input-output model, both the economic base and income-expenditure models are limited in application to small economic regions in wh ich the interdependencies (sales/purchase relationships) between producing sectors are insignificant. Interindustry relationships were first de scribed in 1758 by the Frenchman Francois Quesnay, founder of the physiocratic or natural order philosophy of economic thought. The physiocrats depicted the flow of goods and money in a nation, and thus made the first attempt to describe the circular flow of wealth on a macr oeconmic basis. Wassily Leontief was born in Russia in 1906 and first studied economic geography at the Univers ity of St. Petersburg before moving to Berlin and China. He came to the Un ited States in 1931 and, after a brief 3-month stint at the National Bureau of Economic Research in New York, he was hired by Harvard University. At Harvard, Professor Leontief undertook a research project that encompassed a 42-industry inputoutput table showing how changes in one sector of the economy lead to changes in other sectors. From this research, he developed the concept of multipliers from input-output tables, and was subsequently awarded the Nobel Prize in economi cs in 1973 for his development of input-output (I-O) economics. The historical transactions data in the I-O model represent the sale s and purchases between sectors that occurred over an estimation period. These data describe each sectors purchases and sales linkages with the rest of the economy. For each productive se ctor the transaction data take into account all sales revenue and costs, with the difference between revenue and costs being profit, which is a part of value added. (Tot al value added to a product at each stage of its production is the sum of wages and salaries, rents, profits, interest, and divi dends.) The historical transaction or descriptive da ta are used to create the descriptive model of information about local economic interactions called regional economic accounts. These accounts, or transaction tables, describe a local economy in terms of the flow of dollars from purchasers to producers within the defined region. For example, an increase in government purch ases (first round) of output from the manufacturing sector of a region may require the manufacturing indus try, in order to expand output, to purchase (second round) factor inputs from other sector s of the regional economy. In turn, these other sectors may have to purchase (third round) inputs to deliver the supporting

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76 production of factors to the manufacturing sector The rounds of spending will continue with each round becoming increasingly weaker in its impact because of leakages from the region attributable to imports savings, and taxes. The first round is called the dire ct effects of the change in final demand (consumption) in a sector(s) of the economy. The second and subseq uent rounds are collectivel y referred to as the indirect effects of interindustry purchases (reduction in purchases) in response to direct effects. The open I-O model just described does not take into account changes in spending in the region, in response to the direct effects, for household consumption. Changes in spending from households as income or population increases (decr eases) due to changes in the level of production are called induced effects. Induced effects are incorporated into the I-O descriptive model by forming a closed model. That is, transactions of the household sector are made endogenous to the model by treating households as a producing sector. The household sector sells its labor to the other producing sectors and purchases factor inputs, i.e. consumption expenditures, in order to maintain its labor. There are two steps in impact analysis using th e I-O model. First, th e descriptive model is created; then, the predictive mode l is derived from the descriptive model. The descriptive model contains information about interi ndustry transactions called the regional economic accounts The information describes the flow of dollars from purchasers to producers within the region. In addition to the regional economic account s, the descriptive I-O model includes the social accounts Social accounting data include, for example, taxes paid by businesses and households to government, and transfer payments from governme nt to businesses and households. Trade flows also are a part of the social accounts. Trade flows describe the movement of goods a nd services between the region and the rest of the world, that is imports and expo rts. The analyst must choose between regional purchase coefficients (RPCs) or supply/demand pooli ng. RPCs are econometrically derived to predict local purchases based upon a regions ch aracteristics. In contrast, supply/demand pooling presumes everything than can be purchased locally, will be. Hence, it will lead to larger multipliers than RPCs, because the leakages for imports are less. (The analyst also decides if local purchase coefficients LPCs are to be a pplied to an event during impact anal ysis. If the LPCs were to be applied, the models RPCs are used to determine how mu ch of the first-round expenditure is used to purchase local products and how much is for imported items. Otherwise, the RPCs are applied to second and subsequent rounds of spending only.) The regional economic accounts and soci al accounts are used to build multipliers The multipliers are the predictive I-O model. A set of multipliers are expected changes in output for each industry in the model given a one dollar change in final demand for any particular industry or commodity. A multiplier measures the effects of a change in final demand(s) in a region. The change in economic activity is called the impact The impact is essentially the expected or predicted

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77 consequence of a change in final demand(s) within the region due to a single event or a group of events. A group of related events may be referred to as a project. A Type I multiplier measures the direct and indirect effects of a change in economic activity. It only capture s interindustry effects with in the region. In addition to the direct and indirect effects, a Type II mu ltiplier captures the induced effects of changes in household income and expenditures. A Type III multiplier also captu res direct, indirect, and induced effects. However, the Type III multiplier estimates the induced effects based upon changes in employment. It assumes the region is at full employment, then each job added or subtracted by the impact is associated with the regions average expenditu res per person. A Type II multiplier is most commonly used in impact analyses. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are spending by households and are strongly related to total personal income Total personal income is in come from all sources, including employment income and transfer payments that are based on place of residence. Because of commuting patterns, PCE in a region may not be st rongly related to employment income in that location. Hence, the income based induced effect s of the Type II multiplier are normally adjusted so that a regional average amount of transfer payments is associated with a change in employment income. Such multiplier is called a Social A ccounting Matrices (SAM) Income multiplier. However, suppose that an increase (decrease) in employment income is not anticipated to be associated with a corresponding chan ge in regional transfer payments. For instance, it may be believed that an increase in final demand will only generate low paying jobs. Then, it is likely that the under-employed will be hired and transfer payments will not increase in the region. Accordingly, a Specific Disposable Income may be applied to the Type II multipliers. That is, the change in household consumption expenditures is estimated by disposable income, which is defined as a specified (by the analyst) percentage of employment income. A change in final demand may be applied to an industry or to a co mmodity. Industries are businesses producing goods and services; commoditi es are the goods and services being produced. An industry can make more than one commodity. An industry usually is named for the primary, by value, commodity it produces. Commodities produced by an industry, other than its primary commodity, are called secondary commodities or byproducts. An industry-applied change in final demand has a direct effect on th e selected industry onl y. A commodity-applied change in final demand directly affects all industries that pr oduce the commodity, whether as a primary or secondary commodity. The analyst chooses between an industry or commodity applied change in final demand. The choice is appropriately base d on the circumstance for the change in final demand. The choice will affect the predicted impact. As an alternative to estimating the economic impact of a change in final demand (at the factory door), the analyst may estim ate the impact of a change in sales and employee payroll for a particular institution, e.g. state/local government education, or business sector. Then, a typical expenditure pattern for th e institution or industry is generated to assess the economic impact of the change in sales and payroll. (If the event under study is believed to have an atypical expenditure pattern, this alternative appro ach is inappropriate. Instead the analyst should specify the expenditure pattern of the institution or industry in detail.) Using this alternative approach, the direct effect on final demand, i.e. output, in the regi on will be less than the change in sales. This

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78 happens because the model includes the institutio ns or industrys produ ction function and final demand is an estimate of the value, in producer pri ces, of the factor inputs needed to generate the specified change in level of sales. The differe nce between the estimated change in final demand and the change in sales is tota l value added. Also, with this approach, the induced effects are interpreted as resulting from a change in household spending by the suppliers of the institutions or industrys factor inputs (fi rst round) as well as subsequent ro unds of interindustry sales/purchases. Margins are used to convert purchaser prices to producer prices. Margins depend on the consumer. For example, households pay the full retail margins, but govern ment may pay little or no retail margins because it has more buying power than individual households. Margins split a purchaser price into appropriate producer valu es, each value impacting a specific industry. For example, the purchaser price of a tire at an au tomotive retailer includes the producer price at the factory door plus transportation costs, the whol esalers markup, and the retailers markup. Unless edited by the analyst, margins used in impact analysis are national averages. A deflator may be used to conve rt expenditures to the base year (estimation period) used to calculate predictive multipliers and to inflate the reports of impact analysis to the current year. Deflators are associated with commodities, and are also used to adjust margin values. A predicted regional impact may be gauged in terms of output (a change in production measured in dollars), of employment (a change in employment measured by number of jobs), or of personal income (a change in income from all sources, including em ployment and transfer payments, for persons residing in the region). I-O Model Assumptions The following are the fundamental assumptions of the I-O model. First, it is assumed that the proportions in which each sector purchases its inputs from all other sectors are invariant over the period of analysis. The implications of this assumption are unchanged technology, constant relative prices, no shift in the mix production activi ties within sectors, and no new significant firm has moved into or out of the region. Second, the I-O model assumes linear production f unctions, that is a sectors inputs remain in proportion to its output. This implies that no industr y enjoys economies of scale. Third, each sector of the regional economy is assumed to be homogeneous. An increase (decrease) in a sectors final demand will always have the same impact on the economy. And fourth, in the closed I-O model, in assumed that the household sector s marginal propensity to consume equals its average propensity to consume.

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79 Appendix D Description of REMI Model The Center for Economic Development Re search (CEDR), College of Business Administration, University of Sou th Florida (USF), uses the REMI Policy InsightTM model to estimate economic and demographic effe cts that policy initiatives or external events may cause on a regional economy. Data the last available historical year is 2001 for each of USFs seven county economic development region, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk and Sarasota; as well as the counties of Brevar d, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia; and a consolidation of the remaining 54 Florida c ounties are available. The REMI software is managed by CEDR and available to the USF comm unity for research and teaching purposes. Dr. Dennis Colie generated the following description of the model over several years based on documentation from the software developers. Founded in 1980, Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) constructs m odels that reveal the economic and demographic effects that policy initiatives or external events may cause on a local economy. REMITM Policy Insight model users include na tional, regional, state, and city governments, as well as universit ies, nonprofit organizations, public utilities and private consulting firms. REMITM users in Florida include the State of Florida (Legislature, Governors Office, Agency for Workforce Innovation), Tampa Bay Re gional Planning Council, the University of South Florida, Florida State University, City of Jacksonville, Floridas Space Coast Economic Development Commission, and the North east Florida Regional Planning Council. REMITM is a dynamic model that predicts how changes in an economy will occur on a year-by-year basis. The model is sensitive to a wide range of policy and project alternatives as well as interactions between regional economies and the national economy. The model uses data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Energy, the Census Bureau and other public sources. The models dynamic property means that it fo recasts not only what will happen but also when it will happen. This results in long-term predictions that have general equilibrium properties. This means that the long-term properties of ge neral equilibrium models are preserved without sacrificing the accuracy of event timing predictions and without simp ly taking elasticity estimates from secondary sources. REMITM is a structural model, meaning that it clearly includes cause and effect relationships. The model shares two key underl ying assumptions with mainstream economic theory: households maximize utility and producers maximize profits. Because these assumptions make sense to most people, the model can be understood by intelligent lay people as well as trained economists. In the model, businesses produce goods to se ll to other firms, consumers, investors, governments and purchasers outside of the region. Th e output is produced usi ng labor, capital, fuel and intermediate inputs. The demand for labor, cap ital and fuel per unit of output depends on their relative costs, because an increase in the price of any one of these inputs leads to substitution away from that input to other inputs. The supply of la bor in the model depends on the number of people in the population and the proportion of those people who participate in the labor force. Economic

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80 migration affects the population size People will move into an area if the real after-tax wage rates or the likelihood of being empl oyed increases in a region. Supply and demand for labor in the model determ ines the wage rates. These wage rates, along with other prices and productivity, determine the cost of doing business for every industry in the model. An increase in the cost of doing busine ss causes either an increas e in price or a cut in profits depending on the market for the product. In either case, an increase in cost would decrease the share of the local and US market supplied by lo cal firms. This market share combined with the demand described above determines the amount of local output. There are also many other feedback loops in the model such as the feedba ck from changes in wages and employment to income and consumption, the feedback of economic expansion to investment, and the feedback of population to government spending. The model brings together the fundamental ec onomic elements mentioned in the previous two paragraphs to determine a baseline forecast for each year The model includes all the interindustry relationships that are in an in put-output model, like IMPLAN ProfessionalTM, and goes beyond the input-output model by including added relationships with population, labor supply, wages, prices, profits, and market shares. A feature, which distinguishes the REMITM model from other economic simulation models, is the way REMITM handles the labor market. In the basic REMITM model, the general equilibrium demand for labor slopes downward and the genera l equilibrium supply of labor slopes upward. The wage responds to derived labor demand and ther e is an inverse relatio nship between the wage and market share. Thus, as the demand for labor ri ses, the wage rises and ma rket share falls. Also, migration responds directly (positively) to a ch ange in the wage, ther eby increasing the labor supply. In contrast with REMITM, a basic input-output model s uppresses the labor intensity response to wage rates, market shares respons es to regional competitiveness, and migration response to real after-tax wage rates and relative empl oyment rates. The resu lt is a horizontal labor supply curve and a vertical labor demand curve. Employment is a fixe d proportion of output. Thus, a basic input-output model is linear with respect to a change in output or employment. Labor is immobile, i.e. migrati on is not an alternative to unemp loyment. Following from labor immobility, an implied assumption is that ther e are unemployed workers in the region if the number of jobs is to increase. Labor immob ility is the assumption of Type I (without household sector) and Type II (with househol d sector) input-output models.

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81 Appendix E Detailed Effects of FTAA Full Implementation (F.I.) Panel A Employment Effects Employment (000s) F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Farm -0.030-0.030-0.030-0.030-0.030 -0.030-0.030-0.030-0.030-0.030 Forestry et al. 0.0230.0270.0300.0320.033 0.0340.0340.0340.0350.035 Agriculture 0.0180.0200.0220.0230.024 0.0240.0260.0260.0270.029 Oil, gas extraction 0.0060.0070.0080.0080.009 0.0090.0090.0100.0100.010 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0060.0060.0070.0070.007 0.0080.0080.0080.0090.009 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0010.0010.001 0.001 0.0010.0010.0010.000 Utilities 0.0850.0910. 0960.0990.101 0.1020. 1030.1040.1060.108 Construction 1.6222.4032.8163.0053.066 3.0563.0062.9332.8632.799 Wood product mfg 0.1750.1890.1990.2070.214 0.2200.2260.2320.2380.244 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.3300. 3570.3800.4000.419 0.437 0.4550.4690.4850.501 Primary metal mfg 0.1160.1200.1230.1260.129 0.1310.1330.1390.1440.150 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.7770.8140.8450.8720.898 0.9220.9440.9650.9861.007 Machinery mfg 1.0741.0971.1151.1311.144 1.1531.1591.1791.1981.217 Computer, electronic prod mfg 1.8311.7811.7461.7241.713 1.7071.7071.6331.5681.510 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.2920.2970.3000.3020.303 0.3030.3020.3060.3110.315 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0540.0570.0590.0610.063 0.0650.0660.0660.0670.068 Transp. equip mfg. exc. motor vehicles 0.9920.9760.9550.9280.899 0.8620.8190.8380.8570.875 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.1630.1720.1810.1880.194 0.1990.2040.2090.2140.219 Miscellaneous mfg 0.9040.9140.9240.9310.937 0.9410.9420.9620.9821.003 Food mfg 0.3670.3820.3960.4100.424 0.4370.4510.4610.4730.485 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0080.0080.0090.0090. 009 0.0090.0090. 0090.0090.009 Textile mills 0.1930.1900.1860. 1820.177 0.1720.165 0.1680.1700.173 Textile prod mills 0.1090.1110.113 0.1150.116 0.1160. 1160.1190.1220.124 Apparel mfg 0.2820.2780.2720.2650.257 0.2490.2390.2420.2460.251 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0240.0270.0290.0310. 032 0.0340.0350. 0360.0370.039 Paper mfg 0.1570.1630.1680.1720.176 0.1790.1820.1880.1930.199 Printing, rel supp act 0.1550.1620.1670.1700.173 0.1750.1770.1850.1930.202 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0230.0250.0270.0290.030 0.0320.0330.0340.0340.035 Chemical mfg 0.3240.3310.3360.3400.342 0.3420.3410.3510.3600.370 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.2530.2650.2760.2850.293 0.3010.3080.3140.3200.326

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82Employment (000s) Continued F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Wholesale Trade 1.7801.8741.9522.0162.071 2.1192.1602.1842.2102.235 Retail Trade 2.3542.5262.6652.7562.823 2.8742.9142.9362.9662.999 Air transportation 0.0720.0740.0760.0770.078 0.0790.0800.0800.0800.080 Rail transportation 0.0090.0100.0100.0110.011 0.0100.0100.0100.0100.010 Water transportation 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.2820.3030.3200.3320.342 0.3500.3570.3650.3740.383 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0560.0590.0620.0650.067 0.0690.0710.0740.0780.081 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0430.0450.0460.0470.047 0.0480.0490.0500.0510.053 Warehousing, storage 0.0900.0940.0970.1000.102 0.1040.1050.1090.1130.117 Publishing, exc Internet 0.3090.3350.3600.3840.407 0.4300.4520.4670.4830.499 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0440.0470.0500.0520.054 0.0550.0570.0570.0570.057 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.142 0.1510.1590.1660.172 0.1770.1820.1790.1770.175 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.2110.2220.2310.2370.241 0.2440.2470.2480.2500.252 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.4880. 5110.5300.5440.556 0.565 0.5740.5810.5890.599 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.2800.2870.2910.2930.294 0.2960.2980.2990.3010.305 Ins carriers, rel act 0.1720.1730.1710.1680.164 0.1620.1610.1630.1670.173 Real estate 0.3630.4320.4870.5270.557 0.5810.6020.6180.6340.650 Rental, leasing services 0.1400.153 0.1620.1690.175 0.1790.1830.1860.1910.196 Prof, tech services 1.8141.9942.1362.2482.342 2.4222.4902.5752.6632.754 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.4310.4450.4570.4660.473 0.4790.4830.4920.5010.511 Administrative, support services 1.3401.4371.5121.5691.621 1.6701.7201.7711.8321.898 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0970.0970.0990.1010.104 0.1070.1110.1130.1150.117 Educational services 0.2760.2830.2930.2990.305 0.3110.3160.3210.3290.338 Ambulatory health care services 0.1010.1090.1200.1330.148 0.1660.1860.2110.2390.269 Hospitals 0.0700.0690.0690.0720.076 0.0820.0900.1040.1200.137 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.115 0.1250.1360.1460.157 0. 1690.1810.1940.2090.225 Social assistance 0.2620.2760.2930.3070.321 0.3340.3470.3510.3560.362 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.1810.1900.1980.2030.207 0.2100.2130.2180.2230.230 Museums et al. 0.0110.0120.0120.0120.013 0.0130.0130.0130.0130.013 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.1650.1690.1730.1750.177 0.1790.1820.1820.1830.185 Accommodation 0.1720.1780.1820.1840.185 0.1870.1890.1910.1940.198 Food services, drinking places 1.2201. 2731.3301.3721.409 1.443 1.4751.4911.5131.537 Repair, maintenance 0.3610.3800.3950.4050.411 0.4160.4190.4250.4320.439

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83Employment (000s) Continued F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Personal, laundry services 0.2640.2760.2900.3010.310 0.3190.3270.3320.3390.347 Membership assoc, organ 0.3840.4040.4250.4410.455 0.4680.4800.4840.4900.497 Private households 0.2520.2570.2630.2660.268 0.2680.2690.2720.2770.282 State & Local Gov 0.2860.5420.7800.9991.200 1.3841.5531.7231.8651.997 Total Employment 24.97427.05528.59129.66530.495 31.16031.71332.25732.85433.483

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84 Panel B Output Effects Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Forestry et al. 0.0030.0040.0040.0050.005 0.0060.0060.0060.0060.007 Agriculture 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0010.0010.0010.001 Oil, gas extraction 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0010.0010.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.0000.0000.0000.000 Utilities 0.0350.0380. 0410.0440.045 0.0470. 0480.0500.0510.053 Construction 0.1220.1830.2170.2340.242 0.2430.2420.2390.2350.232 Wood product mfg 0.0260.0290.0320.0340.035 0.0370.0380.0400.0420.044 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.0520. 0570.0610.0650.069 0.073 0.0770.0800.0840.087 Primary metal mfg 0.0270.0290.0300.0310.032 0.0330.0340.0360.0380.040 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.1110.1200.1280.1360.144 0.1520.1600.1680.1760.184 Machinery mfg 0.2050.2180.2300.2410.252 0.2620.2710.2850.2990.314 Computer, electronic prod mfg 1.3971.5801.7791.9952.232 2.4852.7612.9253.0923.262 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.0580.0620.0650.0680.070 0.0730.0750.0790.0830.087 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0170.0190.0210.0230.024 0.0260.0280.0290.0310.033 Transp equip mfg. exc. motor veh 0.2170.2210.2230.2240.223 0.2200.2150.2260.2380.250 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.0170.0190.0200.0220.023 0.0240.0250.0270.0280.030 Miscellaneous mfg 0.1530.1610.1690.1760.183 0.1890.1950.2050.2150.226 Food mfg 0.1220.1300.1370.1450.153 0.1600.1680.1750.1830.190 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0040.0050.0050.0050. 006 0.0060.0060. 0060.0060.006 Textile mills 0.0320.0330.0340. 0340.035 0.0350.035 0.0360.0380.040 Textile prod mills 0.0170.0180.019 0.0200.021 0.0210. 0220.0230.0240.025 Apparel mfg 0.0430.0440.0450.0460.046 0.0460.0460.0480.0500.053 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0030.0040.0040.0040. 005 0.0050.0050. 0060.0060.006 Paper mfg 0.0450.0470.0500.0520.054 0.0560.0580.0610.0640.067 Printing, rel supp act 0.0170.0180.0190.0190.020 0.0200.0200.0210.0230.024 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0250.0290.0320.0350.038 0.0400.0430.0450.0470.050 Chemical mfg 0.1250.1310.1360.1410.145 0.1480.1510.1590.1670.175 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.0470.0510.0550.0580.062 0.0650.0690.0720.0760.079 Wholesale trade 0.3470.3820.4160.4480.480 0.5100.5410.5700.6000.630 Retail trade 0.1600.1780.1940.2070.219 0.2290.2390.2480.2570.267

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85Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) Continued F.I 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Air transportation 0.0200.0220.0230.0250.026 0.0280.0290.0310.0320.033 Rail transportation 0.0030.0030.0030.0040.004 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.004 Water transportation 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.0260.0290.0320.0340.036 0.0370.0390.0410.0420.044 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0010.0010.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.004 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.004 Warehousing, storage 0.0050.0060.0060.0060.007 0.0070.0070.0070.0080.008 Publishing, exc Internet 0.0560.0630.0700.0770.084 0.0910.0980.1040.1110.117 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0070.0070.0080.0090.010 0.0100.0110.0120.0120.013 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.026 0.0300.0340.0370.041 0.0450.0500.0520.0550.057 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.0640.0710.0770.0820.087 0.0910.0950.0980.1020.106 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.1330. 1440.1540.1620.170 0.178 0.1850.1920.2000.208 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.0270.0290.0310.0320.034 0.0350.0370.0380.0400.041 Ins carriers, rel act 0.0210.0220.0230.0230.023 0.0230.0230.0240.0250.026 Real estate 0.1100.1340.1540.1700.184 0.1960.2070.2170.2270.236 Rental, leasing services 0.0160.017 0.0190.0200.021 0.0220.0230.0230.0240.025 Prof, tech services 0.1660.1880.2070.2230.238 0.2510.2640.2790.2940.310 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.1200.1290.1380.1450.153 0.1600.1660.1750.1840.193 Administrative, support services 0.0660.0730.0780.0830.088 0.0930.0970.1020.1070.113 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0130.0140.0140.0150.015 0.0160.0160.0170.0170.018 Educational services 0.0110.0110.0120.0120.012 0.0120.0130.0130.0130.013 Ambulatory health care services 0.0090.0110.0120.0140.015 0.0170.0200.0220.0250.029 Hospitals 0.0060.0060.0060.0070.007 0.0080.0090.0100.0120.014 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.004 0.0040.0040.0050.005 0. 0060.0060.0060.0070.007 Social assistance 0.0100.0110.0110.0120.013 0.0130.0140.0150.0150.015 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.0080.0090.0090.0090.010 0.0100.0100.0110.0110.011 Museums et al. 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.0130.0130.0140.0150.015 0.0150.0160.0160.0170.017 Accommodation 0.0120.0130.0140.0140.015 0.0150.0160.0170.0170.018 Food services, drinking places 0.0530. 0560.0590.0620.065 0.067 0.0700.0710.0730.075 Repair, maintenance 0.0280.0300.0320.0330.035 0.0360.0370.0380.0390.041 Personal, laundry services 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.018 0.0180.0190.0200.0200.021

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86Membership assoc, organ 0.0160.0180.0190.0200.021 0.0220.0230.0240.0250.026 Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) Continued F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Private households 0.0010.0010.0010.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Total Output (Private Non-farm) 4.5014.9955.4565.8916.324 6.7517.1917.5577.9338.319

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87 Panel C GSP Effects GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Forestry et al. 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.003 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 Agriculture 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Oil, gas extraction 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.0000.0000.0000.000 Utilities 0.0200.0220. 0240.0250.026 0.0270. 0280.0290.0300.031 Construction 0.0560.0840.1000.1090.113 0.1150.1150.1140.1120.111 Wood product mfg 0.0070.0080.0090.0090.010 0.0100.0110.0110.0120.012 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.0240. 0270.0290.0310.033 0.035 0.0370.0390.0400.042 Primary metal mfg 0.0090.0100.0110.0120.013 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.018 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.0530.0590.0630.0680.073 0.0780.0830.0870.0910.095 Machinery mfg 0.0800.0860.0910.0970.102 0.1070.1120.1180.1240.130 Computer, electronic prod mfg 0.6100.7310.8691.0271.206 1.4071.6341.7321.8301.931 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.0220.0240.0260.0270.029 0.0300.0320.0330.0350.037 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0040.0040.0050.0050.006 0.0060.0070.0070.0070.008 Transp equip mfg. exc. motor veh 0.0880.0920.0950.0980.100 0.1010.1010.1060.1120.117 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.0070.0080.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0110.0120.0130.013 Miscellaneous mfg 0.0740.0790.0840.0890.093 0.0980.1020.1070.1130.118 Food mfg 0.0300.0320.0340.0360.038 0.0400.0420.0440.0460.048 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0020.0020.0020.0020. 002 0.0020.0030. 0030.0030.003 Textile mills 0.0100.0100.0110. 0110.012 0.0120.012 0.0130.0140.014 Textile prod mills 0.0070.0070.008 0.0080.008 0.0090. 0090.0100.0100.011 Apparel mfg 0.0180.0190.0190.0200.020 0.0200.0200.0210.0220.024 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0010.0010.0010.0020. 002 0.0020.0020. 0020.0020.002 Paper mfg 0.0160.0170.0190.0200.022 0.0230.0240.0260.0270.028 Printing, rel supp act 0.0080.0090.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0110.0120.0120.013 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0030.0030.0040.0040.005 0.0050.0060.0060.0060.007 Chemical mfg 0.0460.0490.0520.0550.058 0.0600.0630.0660.0690.073 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.0190.0210.0230.0250.027 0.0290.0310.0330.0350.036 Wholesale trade 0.2200.2430.2650.2860.306 0.3270.3470.3660.3850.404 Retail trade 0.0920.1030.1120.1200.127 0.1330.1380.1440.1490.155

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88Air transportation 0.0070.0080.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0110.0120.0130.013 GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) Continued F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Rail transportation 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.003 Water transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.0140.0150.0170.0180.019 0.0200.0210.0220.0230.024 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Warehousing, storage 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.005 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.006 Publishing, exc Internet 0.0360.0410.0450.0500.055 0.0600.0660.0700.0740.078 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0030.0030.0030.0040.004 0.0040.0050.0050.0050.005 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.017 0.0190.0220.0250.027 0.0300.0330.0350.0360.038 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.0330.0370.0400.0430.046 0.0480.0510.0530.0550.057 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.0870. 0940.1000.1060.111 0.116 0.1210.1260.1310.137 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.017 0.0180.0190.0190.0200.021 Ins carriers, rel act 0.0100.0110.0110.0110.011 0.0110.0110.0110.0120.012 Real estate 0.0830.1020.1180.1300.140 0.1500.1580.1660.1730.181 Rental, leasing services 0.0110.012 0.0130.0140.015 0.0150.0160.0160.0170.018 Prof, tech services 0.1140.1290.1420.1540.164 0.1740.1820.1930.2030.214 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.0850.0920.0980.1030.109 0.1130.1180.1240.1310.137 Administrative, support services 0.0480.0530.0580.0620.065 0.0690.0720.0760.0800.084 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0070.0070.0070.0080.008 0.0080.0090.0090.0090.010 Educational services 0.0060.0060.0070.0070.007 0.0070.0070.0070.0080.008 Ambulatory health care services 0.0060.0070.0080.0090.010 0.0120.0140.0150.0170.020 Hospitals 0.0030.0030.0040.0040.004 0.0050.0050.0060.0070.008 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.002 0.0030.0030.0030.003 0. 0030.0040.0040.0040.005 Social assistance 0.0050.0060.0060.0070.007 0.0080.0080.0080.0080.009 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.0040.0050.0050.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Museums et al. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0010.0010.001 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.0080.0080.0090.0090.010 0.0100.0100.0100.0110.011 Accommodation 0.0080.0090.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0110.0110.0120.012 Food services, drinking places 0.0270. 0280.0300.0320.033 0.034 0.0350.0360.0370.038 Repair, maintenance 0.0160.0170.0180.0190.020 0.0210.0210.0220.0230.024 Personal, laundry services 0.0090.0090.0100.0110.011 0.0110.0120.0120.0130.013 Membership assoc, organ 0.0100.0110.0120.0130.013 0.0140.0150.0150.0160.016

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89Private households 0.0010.0010.0010.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) Continued F.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Sub Total (Private Non-farm) 2.2102. 5132.8073.1053.402 3.7174.0534.2644.4794.701 Government 0.0170.0330.0470.0610.073 0.0850.0960.1060.1160.125 Imputed Farm -0.004-0.004-0.005-0.005-0.005 -0.005-0.005-0.005-0.006-0.006 Total GSP 2.2232.5422.8503.1613.470 3.7974.1444.3654.5894.820

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90 Appendix F Detailed Effects of FT AA Partial Implementation (P.I.) Panel A Employment Effects Employment (000s) P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Farm -0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015 -0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015 Forestry et al. 0.0110.0130.0140.0150.016 0.0160.0160.0170.0170.017 Agriculture 0.0090.0100.0110.0110.011 0.0120.0120.0130.0130.014 Oil, gas extraction 0.0030.0030.0040.0040.004 0.0040.0050.0050.0050.005 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0030.0030.0030.0040.004 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.004 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.0000.0000.0000.000 Utilities 0.0410.0440. 0470.0480.049 0.0500. 0500.0510.0520.053 Construction 0.7941.1771.3801.4731.504 1.4991.4751.4401.4061.375 Wood product mfg 0.0820.0890.0940.0980.102 0.1050.1070.1100.1130.116 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.1580. 1710.1820.1920.201 0.209 0.2180.2250.2330.240 Primary metal mfg 0.0560.0580.0600.0610.062 0.0640.0650.0670.0700.072 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.3730.3910.4060.4190.432 0.4430.4540.4640.4740.484 Machinery mfg 0.5130.5240.5320.5400.546 0.5510.5540.5630.5720.581 Computer, electronic prod mfg 0.8750.8510.8350.8250.820 0.8170.8170.7820.7510.723 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.1400.1420.1440.1450.145 0.1450.1450.1470.1490.151 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0270.0280.0290.0300.031 0.0320.0330.0330.0330.033 Transp equip mfg. exc. motor veh 0.4800.4730.4630.4500.435 0.4180.3970.4060.4150.424 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.0770.0820.0860.0900.093 0.0950.0970.1000.1020.105 Miscellaneous mfg 0.4380.4430.4480.4510.454 0.4560.4570.4660.4760.486 Food mfg 0.1720.1790.1860.1930.200 0.2060.2130.2180.2230.229 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0270.0280.0300.0310. 032 0.0330.0340. 0340.0350.036 Textile mills 0.0840.0830.0810. 0790.077 0.0750.072 0.0730.0740.075 Textile prod mills 0.0500.0510.052 0.0520.053 0.0530. 0530.0540.0560.057 Apparel mfg 0.1230.1210.1180.1150.112 0.1080.1030.1050.1060.108 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0110.0120.0130.0140. 015 0.0160.0160. 0170.0180.018 Paper mfg 0.0760.0790.0810.0830.085 0.0870.0880.0910.0940.097 Printing, rel supp act 0.0750.0790.0810.0830.084 0.0850.0860.0900.0940.098 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0110.0120.0130.0140.015 0.0150.0160.0160.0170.017 Chemical mfg 0.1580.1610.1640.1650.166 0.1670.1660.1710.1760.180 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.1230.1290.1340.1380.142 0.1460.1490.1520.1550.158

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91Employment (000s) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Wholesale Trade 0.8750.9210.9600.9921.019 1.0431.0631.0751.0881.100 Retail Trade 1.1611.2461.3141.3591.393 1.4191.4391.4501.4651.481 Air transportation 0.0350.0360.0370.0380.038 0.0390.0390.0390.0390.039 Rail transportation 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.005 Water transportation 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.1370.1480.1560.1620.167 0.1710.1750.1790.1830.187 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0270.0290.0300.0320.033 0.0340.0350.0360.0380.040 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0210.0220.0220.0230.023 0.0230.0240.0240.0250.026 Warehousing, storage 0.0430.0450.0470.0480.049 0.0500.0510.0530.0550.057 Publishing, exc Internet 0.1490.1610.1730.1850.196 0.2070.2180.2250.2330.240 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0220.0230.0250.0260.027 0.0270.0280.0280.0280.028 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.069 0.0730.0770.0810.084 0.0860.0880.0870.0860.085 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.1030.1080.1130.1160.118 0.1190.1210.1210.1220.123 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.2380. 2500.2590.2660.272 0.277 0.2810.2850.2890.294 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.1370.1400.1430.1440.144 0.1450.1460.1470.1480.150 Ins carriers, rel act 0.0840.0850.0840.0830.081 0.0800.0800.0810.0830.086 Real estate 0.1770.2110.2380.2580.273 0.2850.2950.3030.3110.319 Rental, leasing services 0.0680.074 0.0790.0820.085 0.0870.0890.0910.0930.096 Prof, tech services 0.8800.9681.0381.0931.139 1.1791.2131.2541.2971.341 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.2090.2160.2220.2270.230 0.2330.2350.2390.2440.249 Administrative, support services 0.6510.6990.7370.7650.791 0.8160.8410.8660.8960.928 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0470.0470.0480.0490.050 0.0520.0540.0550.0560.057 Educational services 0.1350.1390.1440.1470.150 0.1530.1560.1580.1620.166 Ambulatory health care services 0.0480.0520.0570.0640.071 0.0800.0900.1030.1160.131 Hospitals 0.0330.0320.0330.0340.036 0.0390.0430.0500.0580.066 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.056 0.0610.0660.0710.077 0. 0830.0890.0950.1030.110 Social assistance 0.1280.1350.1440.1510.158 0.1640.1710.1730.1750.179 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.0880.0930.0970.0990.101 0.1030.1040.1070.1090.113 Museums et al. 0.0050.0060.0060.0060.006 0.0060.0060.0060.0060.006 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.0810.0830.0850.0860.087 0.0890.0900.0900.0910.092 Accommodation 0.0840.0870.0890.0910.092 0.0930.0940.0950.0960.098 Food services, drinking places 0.6150. 6420.6710.6930.712 0.729 0.7460.7540.7650.777 Repair, maintenance 0.1760.1850.1930.1970.201 0.2030.2050.2070.2110.215

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92Employment (000s) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Personal, laundry services 0.1290.1350.1420.1480.152 0.1560.1600.1630.1670.170 Membership assoc, organ 0.1880.1980.2080.2160.223 0.2300.2360.2380.2410.244 Private households 0.1230.1260.1290.1310.131 0.1320.1320.1340.1360.138 State & Local Gov 0.1410.2670.3840.4920.591 0.6820.7660.8490.9190.985 Total Employment 12.14313.17213.93414.46814.882 15.21615.49415.76216.05616.365

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93 Panel B Output Effects Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Forestry et al. 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 Agriculture 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Oil, gas extraction 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.0000.0000.0000.000 Utilities 0.0170.0190. 0200.0210.022 0.0230. 0230.0240.0250.026 Construction 0.0600.0900.1060.1150.119 0.1190.1190.1170.1160.114 Wood product mfg 0.0120.0140.0150.0160.017 0.0180.0180.0190.0200.021 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.0250. 0270.0290.0310.033 0.035 0.0370.0380.0400.042 Primary metal mfg 0.0130.0140.0150.0150.016 0.0160.0170.0180.0190.020 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.0530.0580.0620.0650.069 0.0730.0770.0810.0850.089 Machinery mfg 0.0980.1040.1100.1150.120 0.1250.1290.1360.1430.150 Computer, electronic prod mfg 0.6670.7550.8510.9541.068 1.1891.3211.4001.4801.561 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.0280.0300.0310.0320.034 0.0350.0360.0380.0400.042 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0080.0090.0100.0110.012 0.0130.0140.0150.0150.016 Transp equip mfg. exc. motor veh 0.1050.1070.1080.1080.108 0.1070.1040.1100.1150.121 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.0080.0090.0100.0100.011 0.0120.0120.0130.0130.014 Miscellaneous mfg 0.0740.0780.0820.0850.089 0.0920.0940.0990.1040.110 Food mfg 0.0570.0610.0650.0680.072 0.0750.0790.0830.0860.090 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0140.0150.0160.0170. 018 0.0190.0200. 0210.0220.023 Textile mills 0.0140.0140.0150. 0150.015 0.0150.015 0.0160.0170.017 Textile prod mills 0.0080.0080.009 0.0090.009 0.0100. 0100.0100.0110.012 Apparel mfg 0.0190.0190.0200.0200.020 0.0200.0200.0210.0220.023 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0010.0020.0020.0020. 002 0.0020.0030. 0030.0030.003 Paper mfg 0.0220.0230.0240.0250.026 0.0270.0280.0300.0310.033 Printing, rel supp act 0.0080.0090.0090.0090.010 0.0100.0100.0100.0110.012 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0120.0140.0150.0170.018 0.0190.0210.0220.0230.024 Chemical mfg 0.0610.0640.0660.0680.070 0.0720.0740.0770.0810.085 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.0230.0250.0270.0280.030 0.0320.0330.0350.0370.039 Wholesale trade 0.1700.1880.2050.2200.236 0.2510.2660.2800.2950.310 Retail trade 0.0790.0880.0960.1020.108 0.1130.1180.1220.1270.132 Air transportation 0.0100.0110.0110.0120.013 0.0140.0140.0150.0160.016

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94Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Rail transportation 0.0010.0010.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Water transportation 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.0130.0140.0150.0170.017 0.0180.0190.0200.0210.022 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Warehousing, storage 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 0.0030.0030.0040.0040.004 Publishing, exc Internet 0.0270.0300.0340.0370.040 0.0440.0470.0500.0530.056 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0030.0040.0040.0040.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.013 0.0140.0160.0180.020 0.0220.0240.0250.0270.028 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.0310.0350.0380.0400.042 0.0440.0460.0480.0500.052 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.0650. 0700.0750.0790.083 0.087 0.0910.0940.0980.102 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.0130.0140.0150.0160.016 0.0170.0180.0190.0190.020 Ins carriers, rel act 0.0110.0110.0110.0110.011 0.0110.0110.0120.0120.013 Real estate 0.0530.0650.0750.0830.090 0.0960.1010.1060.1110.116 Rental, leasing services 0.0080.008 0.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0110.0110.0120.012 Prof, tech services 0.0800.0910.1010.1090.116 0.1220.1290.1360.1430.151 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.0580.0630.0670.0710.074 0.0780.0810.0850.0900.094 Administrative, support services 0.0320.0350.0380.0410.043 0.0450.0480.0500.0530.055 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0070.0070.0070.0070.007 0.0080.0080.0080.0080.009 Educational services 0.0050.0060.0060.0060.006 0.0060.0060.0060.0060.007 Ambulatory health care services 0.0040.0050.0060.0070.007 0.0080.0100.0110.0120.014 Hospitals 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 0.0040.0040.0050.0060.007 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.002 0.0020.0020.0020.003 0. 0030.0030.0030.0030.004 Social assistance 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 0.0070.0070.0070.0070.008 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.0040.0040.0040.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.006 Museums et al. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0010.0010.001 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.0060.0070.0070.0070.007 0.0080.0080.0080.0080.009 Accommodation 0.0060.0060.0070.0070.007 0.0080.0080.0080.0090.009 Food services, drinking places 0.0270. 0280.0300.0310.033 0.034 0.0350.0360.0370.038 Repair, maintenance 0.0130.0150.0160.0160.017 0.0170.0180.0190.0190.020 Personal, laundry services 0.0070.0070.0080.0080.009 0.0090.0090.0100.0100.010 Membership assoc, organ 0.0080.0090.0090.0100.011 0.0110.0120.0120.0120.013 Private households 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001

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95Output Private Non-farm (Bil. 96$) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Total Output (Private Non-farm) 2.1812.4222.6472.8593.070 3.2773.4913.6693.8514.038

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96 Panel C GSP Effects GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Forestry et al. 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0020.002 Agriculture 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Oil, gas extraction 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Mining (except oil, gas) 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Support activities for mining 0.0000.000 0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.0000.0000.0000.000 Utilities 0.0100.0110. 0110.0120.013 0.0130. 0140.0140.0150.015 Construction 0.0270.0410.0490.0530.056 0.0560.0560.0560.0550.054 Wood product mfg 0.0030.0040.0040.0040.005 0.0050.0050.0050.0060.006 Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 0.0120. 0130.0140.0150.016 0.017 0.0180.0190.0190.020 Primary metal mfg 0.0040.0050.0050.0060.006 0.0070.0070.0080.0080.009 Fabricated metal prod mfg 0.0260.0280.0300.0330.035 0.0370.0400.0420.0440.046 Machinery mfg 0.0380.0410.0440.0460.049 0.0510.0530.0560.0590.062 Computer, electronic prod mfg 0.2920.3490.4160.4910.577 0.6730.7820.8290.8760.924 Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.0110.0110.0120.0130.014 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.018 Motor vehicle mfg 0.0020.0020.0020.0030.003 0.0030.0030.0030.0040.004 Transp equip mfg. exc. motor veh 0.0420.0440.0460.0470.048 0.0490.0490.0510.0540.057 Furniture, related prod mfg 0.0040.0040.0040.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Miscellaneous mfg 0.0360.0380.0410.0430.045 0.0470.0490.0520.0550.057 Food mfg 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.018 0.0190.0200.0210.0220.023 Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.0060.0060.0070.0070. 008 0.0080.0090. 0090.0100.010 Textile mills 0.0040.0040.0050. 0050.005 0.0050.005 0.0060.0060.006 Textile prod mills 0.0030.0030.003 0.0040.004 0.0040. 0040.0040.0050.005 Apparel mfg 0.0080.0080.0080.0090.009 0.0090.0090.0090.0100.010 Leather, allied prod mfg 0.0010.0010.0010.0010. 001 0.0010.0010. 0010.0010.001 Paper mfg 0.0080.0080.0090.0100.010 0.0110.0120.0120.0130.014 Printing, rel supp act 0.0040.0040.0050.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.0010.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 Chemical mfg 0.0220.0240.0250.0270.028 0.0290.0300.0320.0340.035 Plastics, rubber prod mfg 0.0090.0100.0110.0120.013 0.0140.0150.0160.0170.018 Wholesale trade 0.1080.1190.1300.1410.151 0.1610.1710.1800.1890.199 Retail trade 0.0460.0510.0550.0590.062 0.0650.0680.0710.0740.076 Air transportation 0.0040.0040.0040.0050.005 0.0050.0060.0060.0060.006

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97GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Rail transportation 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Water transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 0.0070.0070.0080.0090.009 0.0100.0100.0110.0110.012 Transit, ground pass transp 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Pipeline transportation 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 Warehousing, storage 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0030.0030.003 Publishing, exc Internet 0.0170.0200.0220.0240.027 0.0290.0320.0340.0360.038 Motion picture, sound rec 0.0010.0010.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.003 Internet serv, data proc, other 0.008 0.0090.0110.0120.013 0.0150.0160.0170.0180.019 Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 0.0160.0180.0200.0210.022 0.0240.0250.0260.0270.028 Monetary authorities, et al. 0.0420. 0460.0490.0520.055 0.057 0.0590.0620.0640.067 Sec, comm contracts, inv 0.0070.0070.0080.0080.008 0.0090.0090.0100.0100.010 Ins carriers, rel act 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Real estate 0.0410.0500.0580.0640.069 0.0730.0780.0810.0850.089 Rental, leasing services 0.0050.006 0.0060.0070.007 0.0070.0080.0080.0080.009 Prof, tech services 0.0550.0630.0690.0750.080 0.0840.0890.0940.0990.105 Mgmnt of companies, enterprises 0.0410.0450.0480.0500.053 0.0550.0570.0600.0640.067 Administrative, support services 0.0230.0260.0280.0300.032 0.0340.0350.0370.0390.041 Waste mgmnt, remed services 0.0030.0040.0040.0040.004 0.0040.0040.0040.0050.005 Educational services 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.004 Ambulatory health care services 0.0030.0030.0040.0040.005 0.0060.0070.0070.0080.010 Hospitals 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.002 0.0020.0020.0030.0030.004 Nursing, residential care facilities 0.001 0.0010.0010.0010.002 0. 0020.0020.0020.0020.002 Social assistance 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.004 0.0040.0040.0040.0040.004 Performing arts, spectator sports 0.0020.0020.0020.0020.003 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 Museums et al. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 Amusement, gambling, recreation 0.0040.0040.0040.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0050.0050.005 Accommodation 0.0040.0040.0050.0050.005 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.006 Food services, drinking places 0.0130. 0140.0150.0160.017 0.017 0.0180.0180.0190.019 Repair, maintenance 0.0080.0080.0090.0090.010 0.0100.0100.0110.0110.012 Personal, laundry services 0.0040.0050.0050.0050.005 0.0060.0060.0060.0060.006 Membership assoc, organ 0.0050.0050.0060.0060.007 0.0070.0070.0070.0080.008 Private households 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001 0.0010.0010.0010.0010.001

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98GSP (Bil. Fixed 96$) Contd P.I. 20062007200820092010 20112012201320142015 Sub Total (Private Non-farm) 1.0741. 2201.3631.5051.652 1.8041.9672.0692.1732.280 Government 0.0080.0160.0230.0300.036 0.0420.0470.0520.0570.062 Imputed Farm -0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002 -0.002-0.002-0.003-0.003-0.003 Total GSP 1.0841.2391.3891.5371.689 1.8452.0112.1162.2232.331