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The future of Main Street Zephyrhills

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Material Information

Title:
The future of Main Street Zephyrhills a manual for the development of retail and service businesses for Main Street Zephyrhills
Portion of title:
Manual for the development of retail and service businesses for Main Street Zephyrhills
Physical Description:
1 online resource (128 p.) : ill., maps ;
Language:
English
Creator:
University of South Florida -- Center for Economic Development Research
Publisher:
Center for Economic Development Research
Place of Publication:
Tampa, Fla
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
New business enterprises -- Florida -- Zephyrhills   ( lcsh )
Community development -- Florida -- Zephyrhills   ( lcsh )
Economic surveys -- Florida -- Zephyrhills   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Zephyrhills (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Pasco County (Fla.)   ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
The study presents data on the Main Street area in Zephyrhills, Florida, including information on local businesses, shopping precincts, projected community development, and the impact of the area's changing demographics on economic development.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (p. 128).
Statement of Responsibility:
prepared by the Center for Economic Development Research, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida.
General Note:
Title from PDF of title page (viewed Aug. 4, 2009).
General Note:
"June 30, 2002."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 002022790
oclc - 429070847
usfldc doi - C63-00095
usfldc handle - c63.95
System ID:
SFS0000362:00001


This item is only available as the following downloads:


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The Future of Main Street Zephyrhills: A Manual for the Development of Retail and Service Businesses for Main Street Zephyrhills June 30, 2002 Prepared by the Center for Economic Development Research College of Business Administration University of South Florida Tampa, FL

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The Uses of This Report This report is intended to serve as a source of information for: merchants located on Main Street Zephyrhills; Main Street Property Owners; city of Zephyrhills elected officials and city of Zephyrhills staff charged with the management of growth in the city of Zephyrhills; and investors interested in property renovation and development in the Main Street District. Contents of the report may also be of interest to business owners located on U.S. 301 and State Road 54 within the boundaries of the city of Zephyrhills, Pasco County Officials, landowners and property developers in southeast Pasco County, and interested residents of the city of Zephyrhills. The report is presented in six sections. Section I reports the background of the study and lays out the main objectives. Section II provides basic information on the types of businesses likely to locate on Main Street, describes the role of retail trade and services in the community, and outlines the factors important for forecasting growth in the retail and service industries. The Center for Economic Development Research (CEDR) intends Section II to provide background for individuals and businesses located in the Main Street District or considering location on Main Street, or property owners concerned with selecting a tenant. Section III provides background information on shopping precincts. Factors favoring the development of downtown shopping, suburban shopping centers, and ribbon development are discussed. The impacts of shopping precincts on surrounding properties and on the community are outlined. The importance of population and demographic characteristics for retail and service businesses is discussed. Section III is designed for individuals and city staff interested in the role of Main Street Zephyrhills, and in the future development of shopping facilities in the city of Zephyrhills. Section IV looks at the sources of demand for retail goods and services in Zephyrhills, examines the business composition of a group of Florida Main Streets, and compares Main Street Zephyrhills to other Main Street districts. The importance of small community shopping for residents who are retired or work in Zephyrhills, and for residents who live in Zephyrhills but commute to other communities to work is examined. Section IV is designed to provide benchmarks for future development in the Zephyrhills Main Street district. Section V reports results of CEDR’s research into local market conditions in southeast Pasco County and in the city of Zephyrhills. It discusses the concepts

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of market demand, customer base and market area. It provides a summary of the changing demographics of southeast Pasco County and the city of Zephyrhills. It estimates spending by residents and sales of local businesses. The gap between local spending and local sales is calculated. It forecasts increased spending in and around the city of Zephyrhills as a result of projected population growth and changes in the demographic composition of the population. Section V is designed to assist developers in analyzing the Zephyrhills market, and to guide city officials in planning and development activities. It also provides information on future demand for retail and service activity that may be useful to local businesses. Section VI provides background information for the analysis of retail and service business competition. Factors to be considered in firm location, pricing and service are discussed. Section VI is intended to provide background to small business owners and prospective business owners who may consider a Main Street location and are concerned about measuring their competitive position in the market.

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i Table of Contents Executive Summary………………………………………………………………...…..iii I. Background of the Study and Participating Parties………………………………..1 A. A Research Collaboration Between the University of South Florida and the City of Zephyrhills, Florida…………………………………..……….1 B. Scope and Objective of the Study…………………………..………………………2 II. Retail Trade and Services Businesses: Description and Contribution to the Economy of the City of Zephyrhills…………………………...5 A. A Topology of Retail Businesses………………………………….……….….…….5 B. A Typology of Service Businesses…………………………………………………..7 C. Description of Retail and Service Firms in the Main Street Zephyrhills Shopping District……………………………………………………….9 D. The Role of Retail Trade and Services Businesses in the Future Growth of the City of Zephyrhills and Its Environs……...………………………………11 III. Strategies for Community Development: The Role of Retail and Service Shopping Precincts in Local Land Use and Urban Planning……………………………………….………………..….15 A. Defining the Shopping Precinct. What are the Types of Shopping Districts?….…………15 B. Environmental Impacts of Shopping Precincts……………………………………....23 C. The Changing Role of Main Street in Zephyrhills…………………………………….25 IV. Strategies for Community Development in Zephyrhills: Analysis of Retail Sales and Services in Main Street Zephyrhills and the City of Zephyrhills…………………………………………….27 A. The Demand for Retail Trade and Services in Small Communities……………….…….27 B. The Performance of Main Street Zephyrhills and the Composition of Businesses: Comparisons with Other Florida Main Street Communities……………..……………..27 C. The Changing Role of Small Community Shopping Districts in Growing Population Environments: Issues and Prospects…………………………………….40 D. Main Streets in Local Communities: The Desire for Community………………………..43 E. Trends in Zephyrhills: The Foundations of a Market Study………………………….…46

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ii V. Market Analysis: Retail and Service Establishments in Main Street Zephyrhills…………………………………………………………..….48 A. Defining Your Firm’s Customer Base……...…………………………………….…48 B. If Most of Your Customers Live in Surrounding Residential Areas You Must Delineate Your Market Area………………………..………………………..49 C. Demographic Analysis of the Zephyrhills Retail and Service Market……………………52 D. Projected Spending, Sales, and the Sales Gap…………………………………..…67 E. Calculating the Gap Between Spending and Retail and Service Sales……………….…91 F. Projected Spending Growth as a Result of Population Growth……………………….102 VI. Competitive Analysis: How Do I Select a Location Within the Market and Determine the Strength of My Competition? Factors Influencing the Main Street Location…………………………………...110 A. Determining the Location of Your Firm Within the Market Area…………………….110 B. Analyzing Your Competition……………………………………………….….110 C. When Your Customer Base is Sufficiently Large to Support Two or More Retail or Service Establishments, Competitors May Wish to Contest Your Entire Market Area………………………………………….…………..112 Appendices………………………………………………………………….………..115 Endnotes…………………………………………………………………….……..…128

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iii Executive Summary Section I. Background of the Study and Participating Parties. Section II. Retail Trade and Services Businesses: Description and Contribution to the Economy of the City of Zephyrhills. Small retailers: Competition on price is putting pressure on small retailers. To survive, you must deliver specialized products not carried in larger chains. The emphasis is on the retailer’s knowledge of his products, unique sources of supply, and customer service. Examples: Clothing boutiques, custom jewelry, organic foods, art galleries. (Section II.A.2.c). Small service businesses: Must offer services that require specialized knowledge to produce. Service stores tend to offer a single type of service. Pest control services, pool maintenance, heating and air conditioning repair, plumbing, dentistry and many other activities depend upon the knowledge of the proprietor and employees. (Section II.B.2.a) Main Street Zephyrhills is dominated by service establishments, as are most down towns. There are 46 service establishments. Of the remaining 44 businesses, there are 28 retail establishments, ten are financial and insurance firms, three are manufacturing establishments, two are wholesale trade firms and one is a newspaper. (Section II.C.) Main Street Zephyrhills establishments comprise 23% of all businesses in a onemile ring around Main Street and 9% of all businesses in a five-mile ring. By industry sector, Main Street Zephyrhills is the center for most government offices, law firms, and all movie theaters in a one-mile radius. Main Street also has the majority of apparel and accessory stores and of engineering and management firms. (Section II.C.2.d) Retail and many service industries are secondary businesses serving the local community. Retail and service industries do not lead community growth. They respond to community growth. Growth in retail and service sales and employment depends on growth of primary industry employment. But retail and service businesses can grow the community if their sales are directed to customers who live outside of the community. (Section II.D.2.a,b,c) A number of housing developments have gone up between Interstate 75 and the city of Zephyrhills. The residents of these subdivisions represent a second source of demand for retail goods and services in Zephyrhills. Many residents of the new subdivisions are young adults. The number of Tampa suburban residents living in Zephyrhills is expected to grow rapidly in the next decade. (Section II.D.3.c)

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iv Section III. Strategies for Community Development: The Role of Retail and Service Shopping Precincts in Local Land Use and Urban Planning. Main Street Zephyrhills is a downtown shopping district. The traditional downtown has been a center of retail and service employment activity surrounded by apartments and single family dwellings. The central location of downtown shopping districts maximizes customer access to service and retail businesses and maximizes the stores’ access to customers. (Section III.A.1.a) Downtown shopping areas serve as foci for community activities. Downtown shopping districts become preferred locations for parades, holidays, festivals, centers for governmental services, voting and other social activities. Combined with attractive facades and opulent department stores, the downtown became a symbol for its community. (Section III.A.1.c) Stores that make up downtown shopping precincts in small cities tend to be small. Small square footage is a function of the age of many downtown areas and the small populations of towns when the downtown stores were built. Downtown stores are ideal for the sale of small budget items that are purchased frequently. Examples of businesses suited for a Main Street location are: Bakeries Florists Specialty stores for food, clothing, antiques, and other commodities Restaurants Legal, accounting, medical, public administration and membership groups. (Section III.A.1.d) Ribbon development characterizes most of the retail and shopping activity in the vicinity of the city of Zephyrhills. Most Zephyrhills ribbon development is located along State Road 54 to the east of the city. Ribbon development also extends along U.S. 301 north and south of the intersection with State Road 54. As new retail and service activity has developed along these roads, the share of sales by Main Street businesses has declined. (Section III.A.4.b) Main Street Zephyrhills is located adjacent to the intersection of two major traffic arteries, State Road 54 and U.S. highway 301. Access to Main Street to the east of U.S. 301 is limited. Moreover there is no easy way for traffic headed east to return to the main routes. As a result, in-transit business is not a major factor in generating Main Street sales. (Section III.A.4.f) Many planners and public officials view shopping precincts, especially those in the traditional downtown area, as the focal point of the community. Central community areas including shopping facilities are an important feature of the “new urbanism” advocated by many urban experts. New urbanism emphasizes

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v control of the traffic-transportation nexus and the community benefits and public goods nature of downtown areas. Planned communities in Florida, such as Celebration near Orlando and The Villages in the city of Wildwood, Florida, develop community “downtowns” as central features of the residential community. (Section III.B.2.b) The growth of residential areas in Zephyrhills has increased the demand for retail goods and services in the past two decades. New residents, however, were not located adjacent to Main Street. Space constraints limited the amount of new business activity that could be developed on Main Street. Ribbon development has replaced Main Street as the major shopping precinct in and around Zephyrhills. (Section III.C.1.b) Population growth promises to continue in southeast Pasco County. With it will come additional demand for retail sales and services. New facilities will be constructed to house the stores serving this demand. New construction will occur as in-fill development and redevelopment in the existing area, or it will take place either north on U.S. 301 or west on State Road 54, away from the city of Zephyrhills. Or, new green field development on agricultural land will house shopping centers or one or more shopping malls. (Section III.C.2.a,b) Section IV. Strategies for Community Development in Zephyrhills: Analysis of Retail Sales and Services in Main Street Zephyrhills and the City of Zephyrhills. The city of Zephyrhills has been fortunate to attract the specialized activity of skydiving. Main Street Zephyrhills has an active program of special events. Zephyrhills faces competition in special events from surrounding communities including Plant City, Dade City, San Antonio, and Brooksville. (Section IV.A.2.b) Relative to the Comparison Main Streets, Zephyrhills’ Main Street district contains almost 53 fewer establishments than the average. Zephyrhills’ has 29 fewer establishments than the median for Comparison Main Streets, placing it in the bottom half of 18 Florida Main Streets. (Section IV.B.3.b) Although the number of establishments is in the middle for most of the retail industries, Zephyrhills lacks a concentration in any single business category. Data for comparison Main Streets reveals a “branding” issue for Zephyrhills’ Main Street. (Section IV.B.3.c) Within a one-mile market area, the highest concentrations of businesses in and around Zephyrhills Main Street are: motion picture establishments (100%), law firms (78%) and public administration and government offices (86% to 100%). Zephyrhills distribution of businesses on Main Street differs from Comparison Main Streets. Five of the eight retail industries have fewer establishments on Main Street Zephyrhills than is the average. Zephyrhills concentration of apparel

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vi and accessory stores greatly exceeds the average and the median. (Section IV.B.4.a) The average number of business establishments per 10,000 residents (PTTR) in one mile is 137.4; half of the Comparison Main Streets had more than 152.2 establishments PTTR. Zephyrhills’ Main Street district contains just 64.8 establishments PTTR, less than half of the average. Industries with very low numbers of establishments PTTR (compared to the average) are miscellaneous retail stores, eating and drinking establishments, real estate firms, personal and business services, health services1, legal and social services, engineering and management services, and various public administration offices. (Section IV.B.5.a) As small communities are absorbed into the metropolitan area, the demographics of the population change. New residents work in the metro area. They may be younger and have children under 18 years of age. As the population changes, the function of the small community changes. Section IV.C.1.b) Extended residential areas in MSAs are a manifestation of the growth of suburbs. Many suburbs lack a community identity. The lack of community facilities and local resident involvement in social and political organizations leads residents to look for community infrastructure elsewhere. As a result, families may become involved in social activities at distant locations from their residences. The extent to which a suburban residential area attains a community identity depends upon patterns of land use and upon the political identity of the area prior to being subjected to urban development. (Section IV.D.1.b.i) As noted in Section III.B.2.b, one of the tenets of the new urbanist developers is that retail and service activity should occur in downtown areas rather than as strip centers and ribbon development. Main Street Zephyrhills can fill this crucial role as Zephyrhills is integrated into the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA. (Section IV.D.2.a) Section V. Market Analysis: Retail and Service Establishments in Main Street Zephyrhills. The volume of sales at your store depends upon three factors. !" The size of your customer base—the number of households patronizing the business. !" The demographic characteristics of your customers. !" The number and proximity of your competition. (Section V.A.1.a) Your firm’s market area is a function of the customer base that is required to keep your business profitable, and of population density and the costs of customer access, which together determine the demand for your products. (Section V.B.2)

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vii An often used rule of thumb for suburban and small city retail market areas is that a “neighborhood market area” is within a 6 minute drive of its customers. A second rule of thumb for suburban and small city retail market areas is that a “shopping center area”, a larger area for stores that serve customers outside the neighborhood, is within a 15 minute drive time for its customers. (Section V.B.5.a,b) The 2000 Census, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, measured the population of Zephyrhills at 10,833 during April 2000. The census enumerated 6,167 housing units, of which 4,944 were occupied. Occupied units comprised 80.2% of all units counted by the Census. (Section V.C.2) The average growth rate for the city’s population was 4.0% per year for the period 1970 to 2000. During the past decade of 1990 to 2000 the growth rate fell to 2.8% per year. Within what CEDR has designated the Main Street Zephyrhills’ shopping center area—the area east of Interstate 75 and south of State Road 52, State Road 579A and Townsend Road—population has grown more rapidly than in the City of Zephyrhills. The twenty-year growth rate of 119.8% is almost twice as large as Florida’s rate of 64.0%. (Section V.C.3.a) Combined with the rapid growth of new units in the area surrounding the city, housing in Zephyrhills is becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the available residences; in 1980, housing in the city constituted 23.5% of total housing, falling to 18.4% in 2000. (Section (V.C.4.c) In 1980 almost half of southeast Pasco’s population was over age 55 (49.3%) and over one-third of the population was over 65 (34.5%). Today, those figures are smaller: 41.9% of the population is older than 55 and 30.3% is over 65 Section (V.C.5.b.i) The typical resident of southeast Pasco has changed over the past twenty years. One may reject the hypothesis that population growth is a result of retirees and the elderly. Instead, families and working-age people have moved into the area in considerable numbers. Resulting population growth has diversified the population by age. (Section V.C.5.d) The southeast Pasco County area is projected to increase population by between 7,843 and 25,523 by 2010, resulting in a year-round population between 67,474 and 85,154. By 2020, CEDR projects southeast Pasco County’s population to be between 76,349 and 121,601. (Section V.C.6.b) Population increase in an area is accompanied by increased spending on goods and services. This spending may be captured locally. Alternatively, if the desired goods and services are not available locally residents will spend outside of the community. Zephyrhills Main Street should plan for future population

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viii growth and the associated increases in spending by attracting businesses that will capture this market. This strategy will increase the local tax base, add convenience for local residents, utilize existing land and buildings, and benefit local merchants. (Section V.C.6.b.ii) Spending by year round residents on eight major categories, food, housing, transportation, apparel, health care, entertainment, personal care, and education, within one-half mile of the center of the Main Street district, totals $76 million annually. Within a one-mile radius of Main Street, Spending is 2.6 times as large as within the half-mile radius. Moving outward to a two-mile radius, spending is 4 times as large. As one moves to four-miles from Main Street, spending rises by a factor of 7.25, and at 10 miles—a distance that encompasses southeast Pasco County, spending rises by a factor of 10 over spending in a half-mile radius Section (V.D.1) CEDR estimates that Main Street annual sales are $14.4 million. When stores within one-half mile of Main Street are included the total rises to $53 million. Including sales of all stores within 1 mile, sales rise to $119 million. Within 2 miles sales are $406 million, and within 4 miles, $616 million. Within one-half mile and one mile, Main Street sales are about the same as spending—sales in one-half mile and one mile radii from Main Street are 3.7 and 8.2 times as large as Main Street sales. Sales rise rapidly moving 2 and 4 miles from Main Street. At 2 miles sales are 28 times as large as Main Street Sales. The numbers indicate that Main Street sales in almost every category are a small part of the total Zephyrhills retail market. (Section V.D.2.c.i,ii) CEDR calculates the gap between expected spending and estimated sales for each reported distance from Main Street. The gap attempts to quantify the fraction of local spending that is being captured by the businesses in the Zephyrhills area. (Section V.E) While the demand for food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs and tobacco (i.e. items purchased at grocery stores) is met for the larger market, little of these sales occur on Main Street. Main Street’s percentage of the sales in the area falls to a mere 4.3% in a one-mile radius. (Section V.E.2.a) Some households are being drawn away from Main Street to shop for appliances and equipment. Sales on Main Street comprise 65.3% of sales in the immediate neighborhood, indicating that other people are drawn to Main Street to purchase appliances and household equipment. (Section V.E.2.g)

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ix The data indicate that consumers are traveling away from the center of town and the Main Street district to buy clothes at the Wal-Mart store located between two and four miles from Main Street. (Section V.E.2.h) The Zephyrhills retail market provides plentiful medical services and supplies. The East Pasco Medical Center is an anchor site for medical professionals and retail suppliers. The market is fully saturated, with estimated sales greatly exceeding expected spending, especially when the Medical Center’s data are included. (Section V.E.2.j) Within the southeast Pasco County region, Main Street Zephyrhills contributes significantly to five spending categories: household textiles and small appliances/miscellaneous housewares; furniture; other apparel products and services; pets, toys, hobbies and playground equipment; and reading. In each of these categories, Main Street sales are more than one-third of the sales within the half-mile market area and maintain a market share above ten percent within the southeast Pasco or ten-mile market area. Given that Main Street businesses comprise 7.4% of all establishments in the ten-mile market area, and only 1.7% of the total sales2, these categories stand out for capturing a higher proportion of the market than average. Other apparel products and services, with 17.7% of sales, have the highest market share extending to the ten-mile market area (Section V.E.4) Section VI. Competitive Analysis: How Do I Select a Location within the Market and Determine the Strength of My Competition? Factors Influencing the Main Street Location. Given the location of your store and the locations of your nearest competitors, you can use Reilly’s model of retail competition. Customers frequent trade areas according to 1) distance and 2) volume of activity (the size of the retail center). (Section VI.B.3) Head-to-head competition at the market center equalizes each competitor’s spatial access to the entire customer base. Access lowers the delivered cost of goods, facilitating price competition. Real estate at central locations, because it benefits all retail and service providers, often commands a market premium. (Section VI.C.2) The individual retailer may follow several strategies to increase the size of business’s market and its share of the market. In addition to the choice of the business’s location, tools you may use to acquire market share include: Price competition Product and service qualities Service is an important dimension of competition Employee performance through training and performance incentives

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x Advertising and marketing (Section VI.C.4a-e) The individual businesses that are members of Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. can market the downtown area to their mutual advantage. Main Street businesses can also work with municipal government to increase access and the visibility of Main Street. (Section VI.C.4.f)

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1 I. Background of the Study and Participating Parties. A. A Research Collaboration between the University of South Florida and the City of Zephyrhills, Florida. Two research centers at the University of South Florida in Tampa have collaborated with the city of Zephyrhills, Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. The city of Zephyrhills Chamber of Commerce, and Zephyrhills Bottled Water, Inc. to complete this study of the retail and service businesses in the environs of Zephyrhills with particular reference to Main Street Zephyrhills. 1. Parties to the Study, Zephyrhills, Florida. a) The City of Zephyrhills. b) Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. c) The City of Zephyrhills Chamber of Commerce d) Zephyrhills Bottled Water, Inc. 2. The University of South Florida. a) Center for Economic Development Research (CEDR) CEDR is a Type II Center of the University of South Florida. CEDR is a program unit of the College of Business Administration at the University. CEDR’s mission is: The Center for Economic Development Research initiates and conducts innovative research on economic development. The Center’s education programs are designed to cultivate excellence in regional development. Our information system serves to enhance development efforts at the University of South Florida, its College of Business, throughout the Tampa Bay region and the State of Florida. CEDR undertakes research projects on which its contribution is substantive and recognized, and that confer significant benefits on the region. CEDR’s operations are summarized in Appendix III. b) Florida Center for Design + Research A non-profit public service institute of the School of Architecture and Community Design was founded in 1986 at the state’s largest urban university, the University of South Florida, in Tampa. The diverse staff includes architecture faculty and students, research scientists, and

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2 programmer analysts. In addition, The Center has affiliated faculty or graduate students from the Department of Anthropology, Biology, Fine Art, Geography, and Social Work. The Center provides clients with access to academic expertise, cutting edge technology, and highly qualified graduate student internships. Using interdisciplinary teams, Center staff works with clients to ensure high quality work, transfer of technology and expertise, and enhanced graduate education. B. Scope and Objective of the Study. The objectives of this study are: To describe the composition of businesses on Main Street Zephyrhills, and the function of Main Street Zephyrhills as a component of trade and services activity in Zephyrhills and its environs. To examine demographic trends in southeast Pasco county and northeast Hillsborough County as they relate to the retail and service sales in Zephyrhills. To conduct a market analysis of Main Street Zephyrhills, Florida in the context of retail sales and service activities in the city of Zephyrhills and environs. To forecast the growth of retail and service sales along major arteries in Zephyrhills, including State Road 54 from the Zephyrhills city limit to its intersection with U.S. Highway 301 and along U.S. 301, within the city limits of Zephyrhills. 1. Area of Study. a) The city of Zephyrhills. The city of Zephyrhills, Florida lies approximately 34 miles to the northeast of Tampa and is one of six incorporated places in Pasco County. In 1990, the population inside the city limits was 8,465 and the Census Bureau estimates that the population grew to 11,078 by 2000.3 The area surrounding Zephyrhills is in unincorporated Pasco County, and has an expanding residential population. In 1990, the Census Bureau counted 35,620 residents in the 96 square mile area that comprises southeastern Pasco County, including the city of Zephyrhills. When the area is extended east to Interstate 75, the population grows to 41,758. This area was estimated to have nearly doubled its 1980 population of almost 26,000 to over 51,000 in 1998.4 See Exhibit 1 “Facts about Zephyrhills, 1990, 2000, and 2010”.

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MAIN STREET ZEPHYRHILLSMARKET ANALYSIS AND LAND USE STUDYThis research is supported by funding from Zephyrhills Bottled Water, the Zephyrhills Chamber of Commerce, Main Street Zephyrhi lls, the City of Zephyrhills and the University of South Floridas University Community Initiative.WHERE IS SOUTHEAST PASCO COUNTY?Southeast Pasco County Covers the southern half of the county from the eastern boundary to Interstate 75 SOUTHEAST PASCO COUNTY COMMUNITY CHANGESPOPULATION :Increased by 17,873 since 1990 Projected to increase by 25,523 by 2010 Added 1,000 new residents every SIX Months and THREE weeks Most new residents were families with children HOUSEHOLDS :Increased by 7,933 since 1990 Projected to increase by 11,419 by 2010 HOUSING UNITS :Increased by 8,595 since 1990 Projected to increase by 11,558 by 2010 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME :$33,277 An increase of 13% from 1990 and is above Pasco Countys estimated median household income of $31,119.CITY OF ZEPHYRHILLS COMMUNITY CHANGESPOPULATION :Increased 2,613 since 1990, capturing 15% of the areas growth Projected to increase by 3,444 by 2010 Added 146 new residents every SIX months and THREE weeks New residents age distribution:Age Composition of New City of Zephyrhills Residents 1990 to 2000 Adults (Age 21 to 64) 60% Traditional Retirees (Over Age 65) 12% Children under 20 28%Age Composition of New Southeast Pasco County Residents 1990 to 2000 Young Adults/New Parents (Age 21 to 35) 12% Traditional Retirees (Over Age 65) 16% Children under 20 26% Prime Working-Age (Age 36 to 64) 46%HOUSEHOLDS :Increased by 1,155 since 1990, an average of 116 per year Projected to increase by 1,507 by 2010 HOUSING UNITS :Increased by 958 since 1990, an average of 96 per year Projected to increase by 1,134 by 2010 DEMAND EXISTS: From 1990 to 2000, The City of Zephyrhills attracted more new households than new housing units, resulting in an absorption of vacant housing units. Combined with a growing median household income and associated buying power, clearly there is a market for new housing development in Zephyrhills.Historic Town Center Redevelopment Preserve Character ... Build Community ... Increase OpportunityRETAIL DEMAND200020052010Ten Year Growth(PROJECTED) In Demand Food at home $57.6 million$65.2 million$75.9 million$18.3 million Food away from home $38.5 million$43.6 million$50.3 million$11.8 million Household Furnishings $26.7 million$30.2 million$34.8 million$8.1 million Apparel and Services $33.0 million$37.4 million$43.2 million$10.1 million Entertainment $31.0 million$35.0 million$40.6 million$10.0 million Television & Stereos. $11.7 million$13.2 million$15.4 million$3.7 million Personal Care Products $11.0 million$12.3 million$14.4 million$3.5 million and Services In the 4 Miles Around Main Street Four Mile Main Street Market AreaExpanding the market area to all of Southeast Pasco County increases demand by 22% to 30%!

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4 As more families choose to call the greater Zephyrhills area home, the area is being transformed to urban usage. Growth is also transforming the city of Zephyrhills. Retail businesses have moved from their downtown Main Street locations to heavily traveled transportation corridors. U.S. Highway 301 connects Zephyrhills to Dade City in the north and to Tampa in the south, and State Route 54 runs to the west of Main Street Zephyrhills linking the city to Interstate 75. Businesses have relocated along these roads in order to access commuter traffic as potential customers pass through Zephyrhills on their way to employment, education and recreation opportunities not available in Zephyrhills. b) Main Street Program. The U.S. National Trust for Historic Preservation founded the Main Street Program in 1980 with the goal of revitalizing the downtown cores of America’s communities. While the approach was originally developed to preserve the physical aspects of communities (or their “built environment”), Main Street programs have matured into powerful economic development tools. Main Street programs are based on four main principles: physical design; building consensus and cooperation; marketing and promotion; and economic restructuring. These four elements combine in Main Street cities to form a comprehensive strategy for revitalization. c) Main Street Zephyrhills. Zephyrhills Main Street extends east and west from the intersection of State Road 54 (also known as Fifth Avenue) and Highway 301. The Main Street designation applies to Fifth Avenue, running from First Street in the west to 16th Street in the east. The Main Street area includes the same stretch of road one block to the south of Fifth Avenue and two blocks to the north (i.e. from Fourth Avenue to Seventh Avenue). This area will be referred to collectively as Main Street throughout this report. During the first half of the year 2002 there were 109 business establishments in the Main Street Zephyrhills area. Of these, 19 (17.4%) were government offices. The high percentage of government entities indicates that Main Street serves as the town center for public administration and the provision of most public services. Service industry establishments are most numerous on Main Street Zephyrhills, as is the case in eighteen Florida Main Street shopping precincts examined in this report. There are 46 service establishments in the Main Street Zephyrhills shopping district. Of the remaining 44 businesses 28 are retail establishments, ten are financial and insurance firms, three are manufacturing establishments, two are wholesale trade firms and one is a newspaper.

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5 II. Retail Trade and Services Businesses: Description and Contribution to the Economy of the City of Zephyrhills. A. A Typology of Retail Businesses. 1. What Retail Firms Should Locate in the Main Street Area? a) Community retail and service firms serve the community’s residential population. Retail firms purchase merchandise, hold merchandise in inventory, make the merchandise available to customers, and transact sales with customers. Access to the point-of sale is crucial to the structure of retail activity. The point of sale may be at the store. Customers travel to the retail firm to purchase commodities. Most retail sales occur in the retail store. Alternatively, the point-of-sale may be at the residence. The retail business may deliver the commodity to the customer. b) Government retail statistics are reported by type of firm using an industry classification system. Until the 1997 Economic Census, and continuing in many state and local data series, the Standard Industrial Classification code system (SIC code), updated in 1987, was employed. Under this system retail businesses are classified as SIC 52-59. The two digit codes are: 52 Lumber and other Building Materials Dealers 53 General Merchandise Stores 54 Food Stores 55 Automotive Dealers and Gasoline Service Stations 56 Apparel and Accessory Stores 57 Home Furniture, Furnishings, and Equipment Stores 58 Eating and Drinking Places 59 Miscellaneous Retail Gross product for all retail trade in the year 1999 was $847 billion, a figure that was 9.5% of United State Gross Product for that year. Beginning with the 1997 Economic Census the Federal Government switched to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) Under this system retail businesses are classified as NAICS two-digit codes 44 and 45. The three digit codes are: 441 Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers 442 Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores 443 Electronics and Appliance Stores

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6 444 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 445 Food and Beverage Stores 446 Health and Personal Care Stores 447 Gasoline Stations 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores 452 General Merchandise Stores 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 454 Nonstore Retailers 2. What Type of Retail Store Do I Operate? The type of retail store depends upon the characteristics of the goods sold. Store types may sell a specialized type of commodity or may stock general merchandise. a) Is my business a specialty store? Goods that require local processing of items sold, perishables and specialty items. Goods may require a significant amount of production at the store. Stores tend to sell a single type of item and to be relatively small in terms of employees and square feet of space. Examples are florists, bakeries, butcher shops, jewelry stores, and bookstores. The scope for specialized retailers rises with a community’s population base. National and regional chains locate based on community income and population. b) Is my retail business a general merchandise store? General merchandise stores that sell “hard goods” or “dry goods” that require no local processing. Examples are clothing, hardware, and entertainment items. Stores tend to be larger in terms of display space and to carry many types of goods. Examples are home improvement stores, furniture stores, and department stores. National general merchandisers require access to a minimum population size. c) What is the trend in my type of retail store? The competitive nature of retail sales continually forces management to find ways to standardize goods sold, and to lower the cost per dollar of final sales. This lowers the cost of goods sold and attracts a customer base. Stores have also been driven to increase the range of goods customers may select from. In many types of retail this has led to large store sizes. Food stores are an example of retailers who have succeeded in standardizing product sold, increasing the range of goods sold and thus lowering required mark-ups. Food chains have replaced “mom and pop” grocery stores in many areas. Exceptions are stores that 1) cater to convenience 2) contain significant on site entrepreneurial activity, such as butcher shops and bakeries, and 3) stores that cater to specialized local clienteles, such as Asian food stores.

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7 RECOMMENDATION: Competition on price is putting pressure on smaller retailers. To survive, you must deliver specialized products not carried in larger chains. The emphasis is on the retailer’s knowledge of his products, unique sources of supply, and customer service. Examples: Clothing boutiques, custom jewelry, organic foods, art galleries. B. A Typology of Service Businesses. 1. What Service Firms Should Locate on Main Street? a) Service industry firms perform one or more activities requested by the customer. Employees of service firms conduct the requested activities. Employees use equipment and information resources also provided by the firm. Employees add value by performing services other than provision of goods at point-of-sale. Such services include the installation, repair and removal of durable goods, personal services, food preparation, and prevention and maintenance. b) Service provision may include sales of products. However, a significant portion of the value added by the firm appends to the activities of employees. A significant proportion of service activities occurs at customers’ residences. c) Government service statistics are reported by type of firm using an industry classification system. Until the 1997 Economic Census, and continuing in many state and local data series, the Standard Industrial Classification code system (SIC code), updated in 1987, was employed. Under this system financial businesses are classified as SIC 6. Service Businesses are classified as SIC 7 and SIC 8. The two digit codes are: 60 Depository Institutions 61 Nondepository Credit Institutions 63 Security and Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges, Services 64 Insurance Agents, Brokers, and Service 65 Real Estate 67 Holding and Other Investment Offices 70 Hotels, rooming Houses, Etc 72 Personal Services 73 Business Services 75 Automotive Repair, Services, and Parking 76 Miscellaneous Repair Services 78 Motion Pictures 79 Amusement and Recreation Services

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8 80 Health Services 81 Legal Services 82 Educational Services 83 Social Services 84 Museums, Art galleries, etc. 86 Membership Organizations 87 Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management and Related Services 88 Private Households 89 Miscellaneous Services Gross Product for Finance and Service industries during the year 1999 was $3,465 billion, or 39% of U.S. Gross Product. Beginning with the 1997 Economic Census the Federal Government switched to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Under this system service businesses are classified as NAICS two-digit codes: 51 Information 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 54 Professional, scientific, and Technical Services 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 61 Educational Services 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 71 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 72 Accommodation and Food Services 81 Other Services (except public administration) 2. What Type of Service Establishment Do I Operate? The type of service facility depends upon the characteristics of the service activity. Characteristics are: a) Services that require specialized knowledge to produce. Service stores tend to offer a single type of service. This tends to result in small firm size. Pest control services, pool maintenance, heating and air conditioning repair, plumbing, dentistry and many other activities depend upon the knowledge of the proprietor and employees. In many areas, long term ownership leads to reputation. Reputation helps the firm to be independent of location— customers will travel to the store, or order services because of reputation. b) Other things equal, the wider the range of services offered by a firm, the larger the operation. Financial institutions often operate a full-service facility

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9 that is centrally located (downtown) and branch offices that offer limited services. c) Many service activities contain a significant retail component. While the service component can be standardized, customers may be able to choose different brands as the retail component. The quality of the brands provided is a significant factor in this type of service establishment. Since the retail component can be standardized, service chains can develop, attracting customers who grow to rely on the quality of goods purchased. An example is the auto repair shop. Eating and drinking establishments are activities that provide significant sales of commodities and significant services. Both of these industries feature large chain franchise operations. C. Description of Retail and Service firms in the Main Street Zephyrhills Shopping District. 1. Zephyrhills Main Street extends east and west from the intersection of State Road 54 (also known as Fifth Avenue) and Highway 301. The Main Street designation applies to Fifth Avenue, running from First Street in the west to 16th Street in the east. The Main Street area includes the same stretch of road one block to the south of Fifth Avenue and two blocks to the north (i.e. from Fourth Avenue to Seventh Avenue). 2. The City of Zephyrhills has established a Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) as part of its comprehensive Community Redevelopment Plan. Using the authority embodied in the U.S. Community Redevelopment Act the City Council, acting as the City of Zephyrhills Community Redevelopment Agency, makes public improvements within the boundaries of the CRA to encourage private investment and to facilitate neighborhood revitalization. The CRA encompasses a) The area between Sixth Street and Eighth Street between First Avenue and Eleventh Avenue. b) The blocks between Fifth Avenue and Sixth Avenue from Eighth Street to Tenth Street. c) The area bounded by Sixth Avenue on the south and First Avenue on the north from Fourth Street on the east to Seventh Street on the west. The 125.5-acre CRA includes the original downtown commercial area, a zone of transition from residential use to commercial use, and distressed residential areas surrounding the downtown core. While the CRA includes some of the area defined by USF in this report as Zephyrhills Main Street, the two areas are not identical. The latter excludes city blocks south of Seventh Avenue and north of Fourth Avenue. The USF area includes the blocks from Tenth Street to

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10 Sixteenth Street and the blocks from First Street to Sixth Street between Sixth Avenue and Seventh Avenue. Functionally, the USF Zephyrhills Main Street Area excludes most residences incorporated in the CRA and extends the corridor along Highway 54 entering Zephyrhills from the west. The USF Main Street definition has been chosen to identify the Main Street commercial area for purposes of analysis. USF will identify Main Street’s market area, quantify Main Street’s market potential, and benchmark Zephyrhills Main Street against 18 similar Florida Main Street areas. 3. During the first half of the year 2002 there were 109 business establishments in the Main Street Zephyrhills area. Of these, 19 (17.4%) were government offices. The high percentage of government entities indicates that Main Street serves as the town center for public administration and the provision of most public services. Main Street Zephyrhills is dominated by establishments in the services industry, as are most downtowns. There are 46 service establishments. Of the remaining 44 businesses 28 are retail establishments, ten financial and insurance firms, three manufacturing establishments, two wholesale trade firms and one newspaper. A detailed list of the types of businesses in the Main Street area is shown in Table 1 Table 1: Business Establishments on Main Street by 2-Digit SIC T yp e of Establishment Number of Establishments Government 19 News p a p er 1 Manufacturin g 3 Wholesale Trade 2 Retail: Buildin g Materials 3 Retail: Food 2 Retail: Auto 1 Retail: A pp arel 2 Retail: Furniture/Home Furnishin g s 5 Retail: Eatin g and Drinkin g 6 Retail: Miscellaneous Retail 9 Banks 2 Securities and Commodit y Brokers 1 Insurance 7 Services: Personal 8 Services: Business 3 Services: Auto 3 Services: Miscellaneous Re p air 2 Services: Movies 1 Services: Other Entertainment 1 Services: Health 6 Services: Le g al 7 Services: Social 1 Services: Membershi p Or g anizations 10 Services: En g ineerin g & Mana g ement 4 TOTAL 109

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11 a) Service businesses, as 42% of the total, are the most numerous establishments on Main Street. Service firms are also the most diverse as an industry. Located on Main Street are; 10 membership organizations including the Zephyrhills Chamber of Commerce, religious institutions, and the American Legion, 8 personal service establishments mostly consisting of beauty salons and barber shops but also including a tattoo parlor, 3 business services firms, various professional offices such as law firms (7), doctors (6), and entertainment services. b) The second largest percentage of businesses, 25.7%, is retail stores. The retail industry category includes clothes and accessories, furniture stores, computer and electronic stores, bookstores, antique shops, and specialty stores. Retail businesses sell goods primarily for personal or household consumption. Examples include hardware stores, food stores, auto and auto accessory stores, and eating and drinking establishments. c) The ten businesses classified in the financial, insurance and real estate (FIRE) industry comprise 9.2% of the establishments on Main Street. Seven of the Main Street FIRE establishments are insurance firms, one is a brokerage firm and two are banks. In combination with the professional establishments classified under services, these firms attract a daytime working population to Main Street. Downtown workers often constitute a base for the retail and other service firms located in downtown areas. d) Main Street Zephyrhills establishments comprise 23% of all businesses in a one-mile ring around Main Street and 9% of all businesses in a five-mile ring. By industry sector, Main Street Zephyrhills is the center for most government offices, law firms, and all movie theaters in a one-mile radius. Main Street also has the majority of apparel and accessory stores and of engineering and management firms. Expanding the comparison area to a five-mile radius dilutes the percentage of these activities that are located on Main Street. Main Street still contains the majority of government offices and law firms in the expanded 5-mile area, but drops significantly as a percentage of other major categories. The numbers suggest that, while Main Street has the capacity to meet the retail, service and entertainment needs of the immediate surrounding population, a number of competing businesses located not far from downtown meet much of the retail and service demand for the shopping center area around Main Street Zephyrhills. D. The Role of Retail Trade and Services Businesses in the Future Growth of the City of Zephyrhills and Its Environs. 1. The Economic Base: Primary and Secondary Industries.

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12 a) Most community growth is based upon the community’s economic base. The economic base consists of those businesses that produce goods and services that are sold outside of the community, and the employees who work for those firms. Businesses producing for customers outside of the community are referred to as primary businesses. Primary business activity and primary employment are the source of community growth. b) Secondary businesses meet the demand of those persons working in the primary industries. Secondary businesses are a result of the growth of primary industries. Secondary industries cannot generate community growth by themselves. c) The “economic base model” provides a simple explanation of how primary and secondary industries combine to determine the community’s income, output, and employment. Represent the number of employees working in a community’s primary industries by the letter P. Represent the number of employees working in the secondary industries by the letter S. Assume that S is a proportion, s, of primary workers. For instance, s may be 1.3, meaning that for every 10 primary workers in a community there are 13 secondary workers. The number of secondary workers depends on the primary workforce: S = s x P Total employment, T, is S+P. T = P + S We may rewrite the expression for total employment as T = P + (s x P) One sees that total employment, T is directly related to P as follows: T = (1 + s) x P; T = 2.3 x P In this example, if there are 10,000 Primary workers in the community, total employment is 2.3 x 10,000, or 23,000 employees. The number 2.3 often is referred to as the economic base multiplier The economic base multiplier can be used to predict the number of jobs created by the addition of a new primary job. 2. What Functions Do Retail and Service Businesses Perform in the Zephyrhills Community?

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13 a) Retail and many service industries are secondary businesses serving the local community. Retail and service industries do not lead community growth. They respond to community growth. b) Growth in retail and service sales and employment depends on growth of primary industry employment. Community development plans that target growth in retail and service employment are misdirected. c) But retail and service businesses can grow the community if their sales are directed to customers who live outside of the community. Examples of retail and service activities that should be treated as primary industry in a small community are: A large retail store located in a small community that sells to several communities and counties around the host community. A regional mall located in a small community whose stores sell to surrounding communities and counties. Retail and service businesses that cater to tourists visiting the community. 3. Forecasting the Demand for New Retail and Services Businesses. When planning for employment in secondary industries including retail and service businesses, it is necessary to identify the sources of growth in the new customer base, that is, in new primary employment. RECOMMENDATION: This study forecasts growth in the customer base for the city of Zephyrhills businesses. Development officials should make this information available to real estate developers to market Main Street Zephyrhills. a) The city of Zephyrhills was organized as a retirement community. Historically, a large proportion of the population consisted of retired persons. A significant portion of the community maintains seasonal households. b) The demand for goods and services by a community’s retired population is considered to be export demand because their presence, and their expenditure, is not generated by the local economy. One can apply the economic base multiplier to the Zephyrhills retired population. Census 2000 population numbers for Pasco County Census Tract number 330 are: Total households 11,916 Households with persons over 60 7,297

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14 Using households as a measure of employment, the economic base multiplier is: 7,297 = .61 11,916 The number .61 indicates that each retired person is responsible for .61 secondary jobs. c) Employment in residential suburbs that surround metropolitan employment centers is generated by households that live and shop in the suburb but work in the adjacent metro area. A number of housing developments have gone up between Interstate 75 and the city of Zephyrhills. Residents of these communities may be employed in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area. The residents of these subdivisions represent a second source of demand for retail goods and services in Zephyrhills. Businesses in Zephyrhills may consider these households as primary workers. Many residents of the new subdivisions are young adults, who may have children. The number of suburban residents is expected to grow rapidly in the next decade. The projected increase in these “primary industry” employees will generate added demand for retail goods and services. The new businesses that form to serve this demand may or may not locate within the boundaries of the city of Zephyrhills.

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15 III. Strategies for Community Development: The Role of Retail and Service Shopping Precincts in Local Land Use and Urban Planning. A. Defining the Shopping Precinct. What Are the Types of Shopping Districts? Shopping Precincts Defined. Shopping precincts, or districts, are collections of contiguous real estate parcels dedicated to retail and service activities. Individual stores located on downtown streets enjoy central locations. Customers can accomplish multiple purchases from several stores located in the downtown area. Stores located in shopping precincts may confer economies of multiple venues for customers. Shopping precincts facilitate access through the provision of onsite parking. Shopping precincts take several forms. 1. Downtown Shopping Districts. a) Main Street Zephyrhills is a downtown shopping district. b) The traditional downtown has been a center of retail and service employment activity surrounded by apartments and single family dwellings. Downtown shopping districts are the result of two factors. i. The central location of downtown shopping districts maximizes customer access to service and retail businesses and maximizes the stores’ access to customers. Access reduces transportation costs. The average travel time and travel cost are lowest at the center of the market area. Declining transportation costs during the 20th century reduced the importance of distance as a determinant of the demand for retail services. ii. A second role for central marketplaces is to house a concentration of retail stores and service facilities in one place. Downtown shopping precincts provide economies for customers by allowing shoppers to purchase a wide range of goods and services on one trip, rather than requiring them to make multiple trips to purchase different types of goods. Shopping economies. Shoppers wishing to purchase multiple goods and services have reduced costs in shopping precincts, where businesses are located proximate to one another. These economies increase sales revenues and lead to location in retail/service precincts. c) Characteristics of downtown shopping precincts.

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16 i. As a downtown area becomes a common destination for shoppers, retail and service firms seek downtown locations to increase sales volumes. ii. Dedicated downtown shopping areas isolate commercial activities from residences. The development of commercial zoning institutionalized the beneficial effects of special purpose shopping areas. Specialized delivery areas, trash collection, security arrangements, and traffic flows supported commercial business activities and insulated residential areas from the effects of commercial activities. iii. Downtown shopping areas serve as foci for community activities. Downtown shopping districts become preferred locations for parades, holidays, festivals, centers for governmental services, voting and other social activities. Combined with attractive facades and opulent department stores, the downtown became a symbol for its community. d) Descriptions of retail and service activities suitable for Main Streets. i. Stores that make up downtown shopping precincts in small cities tend to be small. Small square footage is a function of the age of many downtown areas and the small populations of towns when the downtown stores were built. ii. Parking facilities are often limited in downtown areas. Restricted parking limits the number of customers that can patronize stores. iii. The physical characteristics of downtown stores and restricted access are evident in Main Street Zephyrhills. They dictate the scale retail and service activities. Retail businesses must be geared toward activities that require limited display areas and customers. RECOMMENDATION: Downtown stores are ideal for the sale of small budget items that are frequently purchased. Examples of businesses suited for a Main Street location are: Bakeries Florists Specialty stores for food, clothing, antiques, and other commodities Restaurants Legal, accounting, medical, public administration and membership groups. Activities that require extensive access space---service stations, repair shops, funeral parlors, and rental car companies, have difficulty locating on Main Street. However, such activities may locate on adjacent streets.

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17 iv. Large-scale retailers who operate “big box” stores, such as home improvement stores and discount stores tend to locate along major roads in stand-alone facilities. e) Changes in the role of downtown shopping. i. The traditional downtown, as a center for employment and shopping, was a central focus of the community’s travel. City transportation networks prior to widespread automobile ownership facilitated commuting from the surrounding residential areas to the city center. City governments in many cities continue to support central business districts by providing public transport. ii. Changing technology and automobile transportation led to the decline of central city shopping precincts during the latter half of the twentieth century. The decline of central shopping districts was facilitated by a number of factors. Two prominent ones are: Limited space in downtown areas yield insufficient space for commuters to park their private vehicles. Shortages of parking reduced the patronage of downtown stores. Costly downtown properties offer limited space for large retail activities such as home improvement stores, department stores. 2. Suburban Shopping Centers. a) The Post WWII growth in suburban shopping was the result of demographic and technological factors. i. Development of road networks to service rapidly suburbanizing urban fringes increased access to non-central business district (CBD) locations. Retail and service proprietors in large urban areas discovered they could locate amid suburban areas and capture sufficient customers to operate sub-regional stores. ii. Household automobile ownership and improved road systems drew customers to suburban shopping centers. iii. Suburbanization and automobile ownership are suited to suburban shopping. b) Shopping malls. The principles that underlay downtown shopping precincts operated to develop suburban shopping malls. These principles were access and economies of scale resulting from the spatial proximity of different stores.

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18 Lower land costs allow precincts separated by space from surrounding residences to locate in residential areas without impacting homeowners. Large suburban shopping precincts containing many stores enclosed in one or more structures became known as shopping malls. c) Shopping malls have the following characteristics: i. Broad variety of retailers with one or more anchor stores. ii. Central shopping precinct surrounded by parking allows for increased auto access. iii. Enclosed malls may be air-conditioned and heated and offer service amenities such as entertainment and restaurants. d) Developers locate malls for access to major traffic arteries. i. Mall development requires amassing large tracts of land. e) Drawbacks to suburban shopping centers. i. Shopping centers are difficult to redevelop. ii. Large-scale malls may cause environmental spillovers, water runoff. iii. Visits to shopping centers tend to be single purpose visits, and may lead to more time spent in the automobile, as well as adding to traffic. 3. Strip Shopping Centers. A strip shopping center consists of stores surrounding a central parking plaza. a) Strip malls range in size from a few stores to many stores. There are many different types of strip shopping centers. b) Many strip shopping centers have the following characteristics: i. A dedicated parking area separates stores from the street. ii. Strip shopping centers serve smaller market areas than malls—most strip center have a neighborhood focus. iii. Often a food store serves as an anchor tenant. Strip centers often have a smaller retail component and a larger fraction of service firms. Shopping centers line major streets in larger cities. They may alternate with individual, freestanding retailers, restaurants, and service stores.

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19 c) Commercial activity in Zephyrhills has developed along State Road 54 and U.S. 301. Many businesses are located in strip shopping centers along these two arteries. 4. Ribbon Development: Retail and Service Businesses Located along Transportation Corridors. a) Important classes of retail sales are made to customers as they are in transit from residence to work, from residence to recreation and other family activities, or from work site to work site. Concentrations of retail and service establishments located along major roadways, often with parking between the street and the store, are referred to as ribbon developments. Often ribbon developments utilize strip shopping centers. b) Ribbon development characterizes most of the retail and shopping activity in the vicinity of the city of Zephyrhills. Most development in the city of Zephyrhills is located along State Road 54 to the East and U.S. 301 north and south of the intersection of State Road 54 and U.S. 301. As new retail and service activity has developed along these roads, the share of sales by Main Street businesses has declined. c) Examples of businesses often locating in areas of ribbon development are food and beverage establishments, located along major transportation arteries, gasoline purchases, and certain services, such as dry cleaners. d) Customers who are in route between two destinations and pass through Zephyrhills in transit generate a significant fraction of sales of businesses in ribbon developments. Sales come from the firm’s being located along State Road 54 and U.S. 301. e) Characteristics of business activity in ribbon developments: i. Retail merchandise and service activities are price sensitive because many establishments located along the corridor compete for customers. ii. Brands may be important because customers may not be familiar with the retail establishments along their travel routes. iii. Examples of businesses whose sales are directed almost exclusively to travelers are restaurants and service stations located at interstate interchanges, whose customers reside many miles from the point of sale.

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20 iv. Firms catering to customers in transit locate along corridors that carry large quantities of automobile traffic, or at mass transit and airport terminals. f) How important is drive-by traffic for Main Street Zephyrhills? Main Street Zephyrhills is located adjacent to the intersection of two major traffic arteries, State Road 54 and U.S. highway 301. However, through traffic bypasses Main Street stores. Moreover, access to Main Street to the east of U.S. 301 is limited in two ways. Two short blocks separate the shopping area from the traffic light at the intersection of U.S. 301 and State Road 54. The separation lowers visibility for passing motorists. Moreover there is no easy way for traffic headed east to return to the main roads. As a result, in-transit business is not a major factor in generating Main Street sales. RECOMMENDATION: The city should work to increase access to and from U.S. 301 to Main Street Zephyrhills. Exhibit 2 is a map displaying the one-mile radius from the center of Main Street Zephyrhills, and the locations of businesses in the city of Zephyrhills. g) Factors favoring ribbon development include: i. Major transportation arteries provide location opportunities for spaceconstrained suppliers that do not locate in a shopping precinct. Real estate costs are lower and land use is less restricted. For example, the store’s ability to negotiate the deployment of shopping carts and other delivery conveyances is greater in ribbon development than in shopping centers and malls. ii. Locating on major streets, stores gain exposure to passing traffic and customers. Widespread automobile ownership affords most consumers in the market area rapid access along major arteries. Auto travelers can access stores along the roadway if ingress and egress from the road is easy. iii. Stores and their customers usually do not impact nearby residences, because traffic makes location directly on major roads undesirable for residential location. Retail and service firms thus act as buffers between the road and residents on side streets. Traffic and noise are not problems for most roadside business establishments. Finally, ribbon development is consistent with suburbanized communities where residences are dispersed and have easy automobile access. iv. The construction of new highways makes available large quantities of open space for green field development. Development costs are low, allowing developers to provide retail and service space inexpensively.

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22 h) Drawbacks to ribbon development: i. Ribbon development is often slighted as being unsightly. Integrated architectural design is rare in ribbon development. Each firm designs its own building and installs its own landscaping. The result is a patchwork of styles, colors, and store-parking arrangements. ii. Ribbon development, especially when it is continuous for several miles, may cause environmental spillovers. Surface runoff may lead to water pollution. Traffic patterns may result in congestion, with traffic lights required at short intervals for access to roadside stores. iii. Traffic congestion can be especially troublesome along major road arteries used by commuters and at expressway exits. iv. This and the added shopping traffic lead to congestion for through traffic along the road. v. Ribbon development is inflexible. Lines of stores are monotonous. vi. Moreover, the stand-alone nature of businesses inhibits collective action to maintain properties and environment, enhance security for shoppers, and to advertise individual establishments. vii. The “drive-up and drive away” nature of ribbon shopping precludes other types of use for the site and minimizes community activities. viii. Changing patterns of travel and the aging of structures along highways leads to declines in profitability and the closing of stores. Ribbon development creates urban spaces that are difficult to develop. 5. Retail Activity along Major Arteries often Combines Stand-Alone Stores with Strip Shopping Malls. Even large malls tend to locate along major arteries, as they connect with the overall transportation network in the region. a) “Big-box” stores seek stand-alone locations along major arteries. b) Small establishments band together in strip shopping centers in an effort to cut costs and to spread the cost of parking facilities. In ribbon strip malls, some stores may cater mainly to neighborhood shoppers while others rely to a greater extent on passing motorists.

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23 B. Environmental Impacts of Shopping Precincts. A shopping precinct utilizes a large amount of land and requires the expenditure of a great deal of capital. In addition, a large shopping area employs significant numbers of people. Many more people circulate through its stores in a typical day. Shopping precincts have a significant impact on surrounding properties, and in many cases impact the entire community in which they are located. 1. The Impacts of Retail and Service Activity on Surrounding Properties. The impacts of retail and service activity on surrounding properties depend upon the size of the center and the nature of the surrounding land use patterns. a) Retail activities and service activities may generate significant amounts of automobile and bus traffic. Access to the stores requires parking facilities, and transit stops. Ingress and egress to the center requires planning if it is not to disrupt traffic flows on surrounding streets. b) Some retail and service centers may generate activities and create conditions not desired by residents. Examples of negative factors are: i. Delivery vehicles required to service the stores must often use side streets and travel through residential areas. ii. Customer traffic may lead to congestion around the shopping area. Shopping precincts may flank major thoroughfares. Traffic signals and exiting and entering traffic may slow through traffic. iii. Environmental impacts including the disposal of refuse and air pollution, odors, and noise associated with traffic are associated with shopping precincts. iv. In some communities there is a conflict between entertainment and recreational businesses and the surrounding residents. c) Experiences with negative external impacts have led local government to enforce zoning restrictions on commercial development. Retail activities can minimize external effects by careful choice of location. Firms can minimize environmental impacts through self-selected development of like activities in shopping precincts. i. Activities that have no external impacts on surrounding properties often locate in isolation from other retail and service activities. Examples are law service firms, accountants, and other professionals who work away

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24 form the office, often at customer sites, and bookkeeping and legal offices with few walk-in customers and few external effects. d) Stores located in shopping precincts can coordinate activities in order to lower costs and to increase the number of customer visits. These activities provide economic benefits to individual firms while spreading costs over the businesses located there. Benefits may include: i. Joint advertising of the location. Individual businesses may cooperate on: Signage to identify the center and its resident businesses. Media advertising promoting the shopping area. Special events to attract customers to the shopping area. Increased awareness may generate additional visits. ii. Joint purchase of general services that benefit all stores. Examples of general services purchased in a shopping precinct are: Property maintenance and cleaning. Security. Lighting and utilities. 2. Downtown Shopping Districts as Centers of Community Activity. Retail and service activities are integral parts of urban organization. When firms congregate in shopping precincts, the shopping area becomes a central feature of the urban system. a) Two factors of retail and service activity have led to development of shopping precincts as central destinations for community activities. i. Shopping centers attract large numbers of customers. In their roles as attractors of customers in their market areas shopping centers are often transportation hubs. Other activities often locate near the center to access the transportation network and to interface with the customers attracted to the shopping precinct. ii. Often, central location of shopping areas is desirable for other activities as well. Today, many traditional downtown shopping precincts serve as community financial districts. The central location minimizes commuting distance for financial workers. b) The communal aspects of shopping districts often involve local government and recreation and socialization.

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25 i. Shopping precincts are often co-located with public services. Public services, like shopping, benefit by proximity to the population of the community. Central location maximizes proximity. It is typical for city halls, libraries, museums, and courthouses to be located downtown. ii. Recreation and social activities are often located in shopping precincts. Movie theaters are prominent examples of recreational activities locating in shopping precincts. Downtown areas boast city parks, bandstands, public speaking facilities, and historic districts. In many cases such facilities are prominent throughout the community. In some cases they are even nationally renowned. iii. Many planners and public officials view shopping precincts, especially those in the traditional downtown area, as the focal point of the community. Central community areas including shopping facilities are an important feature of the “new urbanism” advocated by many urban experts. New urbanism emphasizes control of the traffic-transportation nexus and the community benefits and public goods nature of downtown areas. Planned communities in Florida, such as Celebration near Orlando and The Villages in the city of Wildwood, Florida, develop community “downtowns” as central features of the residential community. C. The Changing Role of Main Street in Zephyrhills. 1. History of Main Street Zephyrhills. a) Main Street Zephyrhills, although it has changed in form and location somewhat through the years, was the central shopping area in the city of Zephyrhills. Prior to the development of the interstate system, and the construction of I-75, U.S. 301 was a major highway that connected southwest Florida with the remainder of the nation. Main Street, located as it is at right angles to U.S. 301, benefited from the access provided by this major road. But Main Street shoppers were not impacted directly by the through traffic on U.S. 301. Main Street stores, focussed on serving the local community, did not feel the impact of lost sales from passing motorists on U.S. 301. b) The growth of residential areas in Zephyrhills has increased the demand for retail goods and services in the past two decades. New residents, however, were not located adjacent to Main Street. Space constraints limited the amount of new space that could be developed on Main Street. The combination of access and available land led to new retail and service activity growing up on U.S. 301. I-75, meanwhile, replaced U.S. 301 as the main north-south transportation artery. On the other hand, population growth in Tampa and in southeast Pasco County increased the flow of commuter traffic passing along U.S. 301. This further increased sales potential of establishments located on U.S. 301. The result was growth of ribbon

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26 development along State Road 54 and U.S. 301. The ribbon development has replaced Main Street as the major shopping precinct in and around Zephyrhills. Ribbon development is apparent in Exhibit 2, that shows the locations of businesses in the Main Street Zephyrhills district and along State Road 54 and U.S. 301. The ribbon development has replaced Main Street as the major shopping district in and around Zephyrhills. 2. Future Prospects for Main Street Zephyrhills and for Retail Activity in Zephyrhills. a) Population growth promises to continue in southeast Pasco County. With it will come additional demand for retail sales and services. New facilities will be constructed to house the stores serving this demand. Now, however, ribbon development has occupied most of the sites along State Road 54 and U.S. 301 in Zephyrhills. New construction will occur as in-fill development and redevelopment in the existing area, or it will take place either north on U.S. 301 or west on State Road 54, away from the city of Zephyrhills. Or, new green field development on agricultural land will house shopping centers or one or more shopping malls. b) New construction is likely to take place outside the city limits causing the city of Zephyrhills to lose valuable tax revenues. Or the city shall be forced to annex additional land and incur the expense of providing infrastructure.

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27 IV. Strategies for Community Development in Zephyrhills: Analysis of Retail Sales and Services in Main Street Zephyrhills and the City of Zephyrhills. A. The Demand for Retail Trade and Services in Small Communities. 1. Zephyrhills is a Limited Market for Retail Commodities and Services. Specialized retailers and other retail and service firms that rely on a large population base do not locate in small communities. Households residing in small communities therefore expend a portion of disposable income in larger communities. Large national retailers compete for small town dollars with large stores that serve larger geographic areas. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. established an outlet north of town on U.S. 301 to attract customers from both Zephyrhills and Dade City. Firms serving small community populations are those firms that remain profitable with a small customer base. 2. Attracting Customers From Outside the Community. Main Streets in many small communities have sought to increase sales by appealing to consumers who live outside of the communities. a) One source of new customers is tourism. Attracting tourists provides income for eating establishments, antique shops and specialty stores. Main Street in Dade City has an active program for attracting tourists. b) The city of Zephyrhills has been fortunate to attract the specialized activity of skydiving. One strategy open to Main Street Zephyrhills is to actively attract visiting skydivers to downtown businesses. Main Street Zephyrhills has an active program of special events. The events are marketed outside of the city to attract visitors to downtown. Zephyrhills faces competition in special events from surrounding communities including Plant City, Dade City, San Antonio, and Brooksville. B. The Performance of Main Street Zephyrhills and the Composition of Businesses: Comparisons with Other Florida Main Street Communities. 1. Eighteen Florida Main Street Districts are Identified and Compared. CEDR identified and mapped the business districts of eighteen Florida Main Streets using geographic information system (GIS) software. Using the district boundaries, CEDR gathered business and population data for each Main Street district at oneand five-mile radii for comparison purposes.

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28 2. CEDR Analyzed Florida Main Street Data Using Various Techniques First, CEDR determined the predominant industries, enumerated by number of establishments, present on the Main Streets examined. Businesses were aggregated by two-digit SIC code. Each industry’s percent of the total establishments in the Main Street Districts is displayed in Table 2 : Main Street Business Establishment Data. Each column is headed by a two-letter abbreviation of the city in which the Main Street in that column is located. Definitions of the two letter place abbreviations are listed in Table A.2 Table 2 is used to determine the composition of Main Streets by industries. In Zephyrhills, government (SIC 91) is the dominant industry, followed by engineering and management firms (SIC 86) and miscellaneous retail establishments (SIC 59). For the retail industries (SICs 53 to 59), Zephyrhills’ business composition by percentage is very close to the median of all comparison Main Streets. 3. Comparisons on Main Street Districts The remainder of this analysis will focus on the retail trade and services industry sectors for Zephyrhills and the Comparison Main Streets. Comparisons also include information on wholesale trade businesses, finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) businesses, and government offices. Data on other industries, such as agriculture and construction and manufacturing, are included in the tables but not the analysis. In general these industries are not the focus of a Main Street district and are more suitably located elsewhere. a) Eight of the eighteen Main Streets were identified as most closely resembling Zephyrhills in terms of geography and demographic characteristics. Each of the eight Main Streets, which will be referred to as Comparison Main Streets, are part of a larger Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and are located 23 to 44 miles from the closest major city. One-mile and five-mile populations are shown in Table 3 for the Comparison Main Streets. Zephyrhills population is near the middle of the ranges.

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29 2 Digit Sic APAUCLCWDBDCDLDUEUFPHCHOKILALEMINANPZETOTALTTL no MIMeanStd Dev 510.6%2.1%1.1%1.2%0.7%0.6%0.0%0.5%0.0%1.7%1.2%1.0%0.7%0.0%0.7%0.9%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.8%0.7% 0.8%0.6% 521.9%1.0%1.1%1.5%0.8%0.6%0.0%1.0%0.7%1.1%0.0%1.0%1.1%0.4%0.7%0.0%0.7%0.0%2.8%0.5%0.9% 0.9%0.7% 530.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.9%2.1%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.3% 0.3%0.5% 543.1%1.0%1.1%1.5%1.7%2.7%1.3%4.1%4.3%0.6%3.6%2.9%1.8%0.9%0.0%0.5%1.5%0.9%1.8%1.2%1.9% 1.9%1.3% 557.5%2.1%0.0%0.6%2.3%2.4%0.4%3.6%2.2%1.1%2.4%1.0%2.6%0.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.4%0.9%1.1%1.8% 1.6%1.8% 560.6%1.0%0.0%1.2%2.0%1.5%3.1%1.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%2.9%1.8%2.2%3.1%5.8%1.8%1.8%2.4%1.8% 1.7%1.4% 571.9%1.0%0.0%3.4%1.5%1.8%3.1%4.1%2.2%1.1%6.0%2.9%2.9%4.0%0.7%2.3%2.9%2.2%4.6%2.4%2.5% 2.6%1.5% 584.4%3.1%2.3%5.2%3.7%4.9%7.0%6.7%7.2%6.1%1.2%4.8%4.8%0.9%2.9%2.8%8.0%4.4%5.5%3.8%4.7% 4.5%2.0% 5911.9%8.2%5.7%7.1%5.4%10.4%11.8%8.7%10.1%11.1%12.0%15.2%7.7%8.0%8.6%9.5%17.5%7.1%8.3%9.2%8.9% 9.7%3.1% 600.6%1.0%0.0%1.5%0.7%1.5%0.9%2.1%2.2%0.6%2.4%1.0%0.0%0.4%0.7%1.8%2.9%0.0%1.8%1.4%1.0% 1.2%0.9% 610.6%0.0%1.1%2.2%0.7%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%3.3%0.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.6%0.8% 0.6%0.9% 620.0%1.0%0.0%3.4%1.8%0.3%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.7%8.0%0.0%0.9%1.0%1.2% 1.1%1.9% 630.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.3% 0.2%0.4% 641.3%10.3%0.0%2.2%2.0%3.4%0.4%6.2%0.7%2.8%2.4%1.0%4.4%2.7%2.9%0.3%0.0%1.8%6.4%1.6%2.7% 2.7%2.6% 653.1%4.1%3.4%4.6%5.2%2.7%4.4%7.2%1.4%4.4%3.6%2.9%6.2%4.4%1.4%2.1%7.3%4.9%0.0%3.3%4.3% 3.9%1.9% 670.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1% 0.1%0.2% 700.6%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.5%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%1.5%0.9%0.0%0.1%0.7%0.4%0.0%0.4%0.6% 0.4%0.5% 727.5%7.2%2.3%3.4%4.7%5.5%5.3%8.2%4.3%4.4%13.3%6.7%7.3%6.6%9.4%1.1%5.1%7.5%7.3%3.8%6.0% 6.2%2.7% 731.3%8.2%2.3%5.8%4.3%3.7%3.5%2.1%2.2%4.4%2.4%1.0%7.7%4.9%5.8%3.3%4.4%5.3%2.8%3.8%4.3% 4.0%2.0% 755.0%1.0%0.0%1.8%2.8%0.9%0.4%0.0%3.6%0.6%3.6%1.0%2.6%2.7%2.9%0.5%0.0%0.9%2.8%1.2%1.9% 1.7%1.5% 763.1%3.1%2.3%0.9%0.8%0.3%0.4%1.5%1.4%2.2%2.4%0.0%1.8%0.9%0.0%2.5%0.0%1.3%1.8%1.8%1.2% 1.4%1.0% 780.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.4%0.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.1%0.2% 0.2%0.3% 793.1%3.1%1.1%0.3%1.8%0.6%0.0%1.5%2.9%0.6%0.0%1.0%1.1%0.9%2.9%0.4%1.5%0.9%1.8%0.9%1.3% 1.3%1.0% 804.4%3.1%44.8%4.9%3.0%10.4%6.6%10.8%18.8%0.0%12.0%10.5%5.9%21.2%14.4%0.6%2.2%16.8%5.5%5.2%9.1% 10.3%10.4% 811.9%6.2%0.0%10.5%21.7%9.1%14.9%4.6%2.2%27.2%1.2%13.3%6.2%3.5%0.7%40.9%13.9%13.7%6.4%24.8%10.9% 10.4%10.4% 821.3%0.0%0.0%1.2%0.5%0.3%0.0%0.5%0.7%0.6%0.0%1.0%0.0%1.3%1.4%0.3%0.0%2.2%0.9%0.5%0.7% 0.6%0.6% 831.9%1.0%3.4%1.5%5.0%1.8%2.2%1.5%4.3%0.6%4.8%4.8%1.8%2.7%2.2%0.3%0.7%2.2%0.9%1.5%2.6% 2.3%1.5% 840.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.1%0.1% 0.1%0.2% 868.8%2.1%5.7%1.5%4.2%2.1%0.9%3.6%4.3%1.1%8.4%4.8%2.9%4.0%1.4%0.6%0.7%6.6%9.2%2.2%3.6% 3.8%2.8% 871.3%3.1%3.4%2.8%4.5%3.4%7.0%3.6%1.4%10.6%1.2%1.9%2.6%2.2%7.9%3.1%6.6%4.4%3.7%3.6%4.1% 3.9%2.5% 890.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1% 0.1%0.2% 913.8%5.2%0.0%13.5%5.5%9.1%11.8%1.0%10.9%5.0%1.2%3.8%0.0%7.1%9.4%2.5%0.0%4.9%11.0%4.5%6.3% 5.6%4.3% 920.6%4.1%2.3%3.7%1.5%5.5%2.6%0.5%0.0%2.8%0.0%1.9%0.4%0.9%2.2%0.5%0.0%0.4%1.8%1.2%1.9% 1.7%1.6% 930.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.2%0.6%0.4%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3% 0.2%0.4% 940.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%1.3%0.6%0.4%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.4% 0.2%0.4% 950.0%1.0%0.0%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%1.3%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.3%0.4% 0.3%0.5% 960.6%1.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.6%1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.4%0.4% 0.4%0.5% 970.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1% 0.1%0.2% 990.0%0.0%5.7%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%3.8%6.2%0.4%2.2%0.2%5.1%0.4%0.0%0.7%1.2% 1.4%2.2% TOTAL 111111111111111111111 100.0%0.0% Table 2: Main Street Business Establishment Data

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30 Table 3: Population of Comparison Main Streets Comparison Main Street Closest Major City (Mileage) One Mile Population Five Mile Population Auburndale Tampa (44) 8,517 70,842 Clermont Orlando (26) 5,254 33,518 Dade City Tampa (39) 11,885 24,218 DeLand Daytona Beach (23) 14,985 56,396 Eustis Orlando (33) 8,353 51,057 Homestead Miami (35) 23,957 86,828 Leesburg Ocala (33) 8,296 36,803 New Port Richey Clearwater (25) 25,889 150,730 Zephyrhills Tampa (34) 16,832 46,183 Table A.2 Abbreviations Used in Tables For 18 Florida Main Streets Main Street CityMain Street Abbreviatio n AuburndaleAU Avon ParkAP ClearwaterCW ClermontCL Dade CityDC Daytona BeachDB DeLandDL DunnellonDU EustisEU Fort PierceFP Haines CityHC HomesteadHO KissimmeeKI LargoLA MiamiMI NaplesNA New Port RicheyNP Ze p h y rhillsZE

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31 b) Relative to the Comparison Main Streets, Zephyrhills’ Main Street district contains almost 53 fewer establishments than the average. Zephyrhills’ has 29 fewer establishments than the median for Comparison Main Streets, placing it in the bottom half. In the traditional retail sector, the number of establishments on Zephyrhills’ Main Street falls below the average for six of the eight industries, by a net total of 8.1 establishments. Zephyrhills is especially low in the number of miscellaneous retail stores (6.7 below the average), but also has fewer eating and drinking establishments (2.0), food stores (1.0), automotive dealers and service stations (0.9), general merchandise stores (0.4) and apparel and accessory stores (0.4). Countering this deficit is an above average number of businesses in building materials and garden supplies (1.9 above the average) and furniture and home furnishings stores (1.6). Zephyrhills continues to show strength in these two industries, measuring 2.0 stores above the median number of establishments for each category. Zephyrhills’ Main Street is the median Main Street in five of the remaining six industries. Zephyrhills falls below the median in the number of miscellaneous retail stores by 5.0 establishments. c) Data for comparison Main Streets reveals a “branding” issue for Zephyrhills’ Main Street. RECOMMENDATION: It reinforces the opinions of members of Main Street Zephyrhills and the city government in Zephyrhills that Main Street would benefit from the development of a central theme upon which to market Main Street Zephyrhills. Although the number of establishments is in the middle for most of the retail industries, Zephyrhills lacks a concentration in any single business category. Most Comparison Main Streets, including Dade City, Deland, and Eustis, have a heavy concentration in the eating and drinking and miscellaneous retail categories. Thus, these Main Streets can turn to marketing this particular strength to their local and tourist target markets. Without a concentration of similar stores it is difficult to establish an identity as a shopping destination. d) Here we will analyze three measures of business distribution relative to two distances surrounding Main Street. The distributions are the percent of establishments, the percent of employment, and the number of businesses relative to the surrounding population base. CEDR employs the one-mile market area and the five-mile market areas to generate the distributions. i. If there is a concentration of businesses within an industry on Main Street, the data will help determine why that concentration exists.

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32 ii. If Zephyrhills and the area surrounding it are a center for an industry (i.e. a number of similar establishments are located in the market area), then the concentration is not particular to Main Street. iii. If a large percentage of establishments in that industry have located in the Main Street district over the surrounding area, then Main Street has a comparative advantage and presumably helps attract customers. We will then compare the business distributions with the Comparison Main Street districts. 4. Main Street Business and Employment Distribution. a) One-Mile Market Area. Within a one-mile market area, the highest concentrations of businesses in and around Zephyrhills Main Street are: motion picture establishments (100%), law firms (78%) and public administration and government offices (86% to 100%). The district also has a strong concentration of apparel and accessory stores (50%), insurance firms (47%), engineering and management firms (50%) and banks (40%). Alternatively, some of the industries which have a very small presence, if any at all, on Main Street include general merchandise stores (0%), food stores (14%), automotive dealers and service stations (6%), real estate firms (0%), and hotels and other lodging places (0%). Table A.4 reports Main Street establishments as a percent of all establishments located in a 1-mile radius from Main Street for each Florida Main Street by SIC code. Within the one-mile market area, Zephyrhills Main Street employs a large percentage of the apparel and accessory store workers (50%), motion picture employees (100%), lawyers and legal personnel (74%), engineering and management services (57%) and various public administration offices. Alternatively, the district contains an extremely low percentage of employees in general merchandise stores (0%), food stores (4%), automotive dealers and service stations (3%), various types of financial and real estate firms (except securities and insurance), health care (3%), and educational and social services (0). Low employment in these industries implies that additional establishments are located nearby, but have very little presence on Main Street.

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33 2 Digit Sic APAUCLCWDBDCDLDUEUFPHCHOKILALEMINANPZE TOT. TTL no MI AVG.ZE-AV G Std Dev 5028%21%27%13%9%36%0%100%6%22%30%4%15%42%6%63%3%5%0%41%14% 23% ( 23% ) 25% 5111%20%100%31%18%50%0%100%0%15%17%7%20%0%13%38%0%0%29%23%16% 25%4%30% 5233%17%25%50%20%40%0%67%50%18%0%7%27%9%10%0%8%0%27%17%17% 21%6%19% 530%0%0%0%15%0%29%100%33%0%0%0%0%0%11%69%0%0%0%26%13% 14% ( 14% ) 27% 5428%8%33%20%23%43%18%89%67%6%18%8%17%12%0%20%9%10%14%19%19% 23% ( 9% ) 22% 5540%13%0%9%19%53%9%78%14%8%10%3%18%4%0%18%0%3%6%15%15% 16% ( 10% ) 20% 5614%17%0%29%24%83%100%67%0%23%0%0%40%24%30%62%9%40%50%37%23% 32%18%29% 5720%10%0%30%38%55%47%50%33%18%45%19%21%31%5%64%11%16%33%35%26% 29%5%18% 5828%13%14%31%18%53%42%81%50%31%5%10%22%5%13%36%12%14%25%25%22% 26% ( 1% ) 20% 5956%31%23%32%26%68%47%63%39%38%40%21%30%17%20%66%13%21%26%40%29% 36% ( 10% ) 17% 6013%50%0%36%33%63%25%100%100%20%50%9%0%8%7%38%27%0%40%31%23% 33%7%30% 6120%0%20%32%31%17%33%100%0%0%0%33%45%9%0%23%0%6%0%21%21% 19% ( 19% ) 24% 620%100%0%58%65%100%22%0%0%50%0%0%25%29%10%20%26%0%33%27%33% 28%5%33% 63100%0%0%0%40%100%50%0%0%50%0%0%0%67%0%0%0%50%0%29%32% 24% ( 24% ) 35% 6440%71%0%30%36%73%6%92%8%42%18%6%39%29%11%20%0%21%47%29%30% 31%16%26% 6520%44%14%22%36%41%30%78%12%33%14%8%19%18%7%29%9%15%0%22%20% 24% ( 24% ) 18% 670%0%0%0%0%0%50%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%33%0%0%0%32%29% 10% ( 10% ) 26% 7014%0%0%20%17%20%20%50%0%0%0%6%19%50%0%15%4%14%0%13%13% 13% ( 13% ) 15% 7239%29%13%22%31%64%24%76%17%18%33%13%24%18%22%29%9%25%20%25%24% 28% ( 8% ) 17% 7311%35%10%22%31%46%24%80%13%30%18%5%30%20%19%35%6%17%18%25%21% 25% ( 7% ) 17% 7535%7%0%12%22%16%4%0%24%4%20%2%19%18%10%21%0%3%17%14%13% 12%4%10% 7629%38%22%18%17%11%9%60%33%44%29%0%33%9%0%85%0%14%17%38%19% 25% ( 8% ) 22% 780%0%0%50%50%100%100%0%0%0%0%25%50%0%50%10%0%0%100%20%29% 28%72%38% 7963%43%14%5%31%67%0%100%57%17%0%9%23%11%40%19%5%10%25%20%20% 28% ( 3% ) 27% 8028%25%62%5%24%56%19%70%36%0%36%8%6%21%10%14%1%13%25%15%15% 24%1%20% 81100%100%0%18%49%86%54%90%38%43%20%45%31%24%2%61%18%46%78%53%38% 47%30%31% 8218%0%0%20%25%20%0%50%14%13%0%5%0%25%20%14%0%33%11%14%14% 14% ( 3% ) 14% 8320%9%23%10%42%35%16%75%33%3%31%15%14%21%10%16%3%10%6%18%18% 21% ( 14% ) 17% 8450%0%0%0%67%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%67%0%100%0%41%36% 20% ( 20% ) 36% 8627%7%19%11%27%23%4%41%14%5%23%9%16%36%5%19%3%28%28%18%18% 18%10%11% 8750%38%19%13%34%69%52%70%22%66%20%8%13%15%28%38%9%30%50%30%26% 34%16%20% 890%0%0%50%0%0%0%33%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%15%17% 10% ( 10% ) 26% 9155%71%0%65%80%79%66%67%63%60%6%33%0%67%76%51%0%85%86%53%53% 53%33%30% 9250%100%100%86%69%82%60%50%0%31%0%40%6%18%60%29%0%25%100%43%47% 48%52%35% 930%0%0%100%50%100%100%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%50%50%0%0%0%47%45% 29% ( 29% ) 42% 940%0%0%17%73%50%50%0%100%0%0%0%0%100%0%23%0%0%0%29%32% 22% ( 22% ) 35% 950%100%0%80%50%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%17%60%100%80%0%0%100%53%43% 36%64%44% 9633%100%0%67%0%100%38%0%0%0%0%33%0%0%40%72%0%0%100%48%38% 31%69%39% 970%0%0%0%100%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%39%0%0%0%37%33% 18% ( 18% ) 38% 990%0%33%50%9%0%0%0%25%0%0%11%18%11%12%22%10%4%0%14%13% 11% ( 11% ) 14% TOTAL30%23%23%20%30%54%29%67%26%25%20%11%18%20%13%48%8%16%23%29%22% 27% ( 4% ) 15% TableA.4:MainStreetBusinessesasaPercentageofBusinessesinOneMile

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34 Employment by industry was also analyzed to deduce whether any establishment concentration resulted from a disproportionate share of smaller businesses. (A lack of concentration in establishments due to a single large establishment would show up as well.) If the percentage of business establishments is high, but the percent of employment is low, then the industry has one or more large competitors within the area of analysis. Alternatively, if the percent of establishments is low, but employment high, then the industry has several small competitors within the area of analysis. The results for Zephyrhills indicate that this is generally not the case. In the retail sector, two industries, (1) building materials and garden supplies and (2) food stores, constitute a higher percentage of establishments than employment. The percentage spreads are 14 points and 10 points, respectively. Employment for banks fell below the percentage of banking establishments, but this could be a direct result of a smaller workforce in the industry. Employment in government offices fell to a larger degree. This result stems from numerous Main Street district offices, each employing only a few individuals.5 The percent all establishments exceeds the percent of employment in the one mile area. Such a result should not be totally unexpected. Main Streets are customarily business districts containing a variety of small establishments and unique products. These stores are frequently owner-run businesses and tend to have fewer employees than large variety and department stores. Zephyrhills distribution of businesses on Main Street differs from Comparison Main Streets. Five of the eight retail industries have fewer establishments on Main Street Zephyrhills than is the average. Zephyrhills concentration of apparel and accessory stores greatly exceeds the average and the median. Furniture and home furnishings stores are also above the average and median. While five industries appear to be underrepresented on Main Street according to the average number of establishments, the number of establishments in Zephyrhills equals or exceeds the median for all of the industries in the retail sector. Employment distribution matches establishment data closely, and the results of the above analysis can be applied there as well. b) Main Street business and employment distribution: five-mile market area. Main Street’s market share in the five-mile market area must decline from its one-mile share because the five-mile market area includes all of the establishments within the one-mile market area. Table A.5 reports Main Street establishments as a percent of all establishments located in a 5-mile radius from Main Street for each Florida

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35 Main Street by SIC code. In the five-mile market area, Main Street establishments maintain a strong share of law firms (71%) and legal employment (69%). Main Street’s apparel and accessory stores market share is halved, from 50% to 25% of establishments and from 50% to 17% of employment in the industry. Main Street’s motion picture industry’s previously dominant market share declines to 25% of establishments and 37% of employment in that industry. Engineering and management firms on Main Street, with market shares greater than 50% in the one-mile market area, comprise 19% of firms in the five-mile market area and 27% of employment. Furniture stores make up 18% of establishments, but only 9% of employment, indicating there are larger furniture stores outside of the Main Street district. CEDR analyzed employment market share relative to establishment market share. Only one industry has a substantially larger share of employment than establishments at the five-mile market area: motion pictures. This indicates that the Main Street motion picture industry is comprised of larger than average (for the area) establishments and could possibly serve as an attraction for the larger market area. Three industries have significantly lower employment market share relative to establishments: wholesale trade of nondurable goods; executive, legislative and general public administration offices; and justice, public order and safety public administration offices. Additional public administration and wholesale trade establishments with large employment exist within the five-mile market area. 5. Main Street Business and Employment per 10,000 Residents. a) One-Mile Market Area. The data analysis above was not normalized for population differences between the Comparison Main Streets. Referring back to Table 3, population within the market areas varies from just over 5,000 to over 25,000 for the onemile market areas and from 24,000 to 150,000 for the five-mile market areas. Table A.3 reports establishments per 10,000 residents. CEDR normalized the data for local population by calculating the number of establishments and employees per 10,000 residents within the one-mile and five-mile market areas. The goal of this analysis is to determine whether there are opportunities for additional establishments and employment in Zephyrhills’ Main Street district based on the Comparison Main Streets data.

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36 Di g it SAPAUCLCWDBDCDLDUEUFPHCHOKILALEMINANPZETOTA L Total no M AVGZE-AVGStd Dev 5020%4%8%2%2%17%0%67%1%3%9%2%3%2%2%18%0%1%0%9%3% 9% ( 9% ) 15% 516%4%6%4%4%12%0%17%0%5%7%1%4%0%3%5%0%0%15%4%3% 5%10%5% 5220%2%3%5%5%9%0%20%3%5%0%2%8%1%3%0%1%0%8%3%4% 5%3%6% 530%0%0%0%4%0%7%67%4%0%0%0%0%0%6%11%0%0%0%5%3% 5% ( 5% ) 15% 5421%1%5%3%5%27%5%57%13%1%8%3%5%1%0%3%2%2%6%4%5% 9% ( 3% ) 14% 5529%2%0%1%5%38%1%58%4%2%5%1%6%0%0%1%0%1%3%3%3% 8% ( 5% ) 16% 5610%4%0%3%7%71%47%67%0%8%0%0%13%3%18%14%4%7%25%10%7% 16%9%22% 5714%2%0%5%5%29%15%44%5%4%23%8%8%3%2%15%2%4%18%8%6% 11%7%11% 5821%2%5%4%5%47%14%54%9%8%2%5%6%0%5%7%4%4%12%6%5% 11%1%15% 5937%5%8%4%6%57%20%47%6%12%22%11%7%3%10%19%5%4%10%11%8% 15% ( 5% ) 15% 6011%4%0%5%6%56%10%80%7%4%14%4%0%1%4%17%5%0%13%9%5% 13% ( 0% ) 20% 6117%0%9%7%6%17%10%100%0%0%0%22%21%1%0%4%0%2%0%5%5% 11% ( 11% ) 23% 620%9%0%14%35%100%18%0%0%17%0%0%20%2%6%11%8%0%25%10%10% 14%11%23% 63100%0%0%0%20%67%33%0%0%15%0%0%0%9%0%0%0%7%0%4%8% 13% ( 13% ) 27% 6420%14%0%3%8%73%2%86%2%10%13%3%17%3%7%2%0%4%27%6%7% 15%11%24% 6513%3%5%3%8%27%14%52%1%7%5%4%6%2%3%6%2%6%0%5%5% 9% ( 9% ) 12% 670%0%0%0%0%0%33%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%14%0%0%0%12%8% 8% ( 8% ) 24% 706%0%0%1%4%8%6%25%0%0%0%3%3%1%0%1%2%4%0%2%2% 3% ( 3% ) 6% 7231%4%4%2%7%40%10%59%4%5%20%7%11%3%13%4%2%6%10%6%6% 13% ( 2% ) 15% 735%5%3%4%7%26%7%22%2%7%5%2%8%2%7%8%1%5%8%5%5% 7%0%6% 7522%1%0%2%6%9%1%0%6%1%8%1%4%2%4%2%0%1%7%3%3% 4%3%5% 7617%4%13%2%3%6%3%23%7%8%14%0%9%1%0%25%0%3%10%9%4% 8%2%8% 780%0%0%5%6%50%25%0%0%0%0%20%8%0%25%1%0%0%25%3%4% 9%16%14% 7933%7%4%1%9%15%0%30%11%4%0%3%3%1%16%3%1%3%10%4%4% 8%1%10% 805%1%34%1%3%48%7%53%10%0%10%6%4%4%7%1%0%6%3%4%5% 11% ( 8% ) 16% 81100%8%0%8%39%86%51%82%4%37%13%39%27%2%2%33%4%19%70%27%17% 33%37%32% 8213%0%0%4%4%7%0%20%2%3%0%2%0%3%7%2%0%9%7%3%3% 4%3%5% 8310%1%15%2%17%26%8%43%7%1%17%7%6%2%5%2%1%4%3%5%6% 9% ( 6% ) 11% 8450%0%0%0%40%0%0%0%50%0%0%0%0%0%0%11%0%50%0%13%14% 11% ( 11% ) 20% 8621%1%11%2%10%14%2%22%5%1%8%4%6%3%2%2%1%10%14%5%5% 7%7%7% 8717%4%7%2%12%52%23%47%3%22%10%5%5%1%18%9%2%8%19%7%7% 14%5%14% 890%0%0%13%0%0%0%25%0%0%0%0%0%18%0%0%0%0%0%3%4% 3% ( 3% ) 7% 9150%15%0%32%27%63%55%33%13%20%4%14%0%13%59%24%0%28%80%23%23% 28%52%24% 9250%36%100%36%32%78%46%50%0%22%0%29%4%6%43%12%0%7%67%20%23% 33%34%28% 930%0%0%33%33%100%100%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%50%33%0%0%0%21%18% 24% ( 24% ) 37% 940%0%0%7%50%22%11%0%8%0%0%0%0%7%0%10%0%0%0%11%11% 6% ( 6% ) 12% 950%33%0%33%11%0%33%0%0%0%0%0%9%27%100%44%0%0%100%21%15% 21%79%32% 9633%13%0%29%0%40%27%0%0%0%0%10%0%0%25%41%0%0%100%18%12% 17%83%25% 970%0%0%0%29%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%14%0%0%25%0%0%0%17%8% 9% ( 9% ) 24% 990%0%11%3%3%0%0%0%3%0%0%4%7%2%5%5%3%1%0%4%4% 2% ( 2% ) 3% TOTA L 16%3%8%4%8%35%10%41%5%6%8%5%6%2%6%12%2%5%9%7%6% 10% ( 1% ) 11% TableA.5:MainStreetBusinessesasaPercentageofBusinessesinFiveMiles

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37 Table A.3 Main Street City Number of Establishments per 10,000 residents within 1 Mile Number of Establishments per 10,000 residents within 5 Miles Miami710.8176.73 Dunnellon577.44134.99 Dade City275.98135.44 Clearwater222.4015.34 Daytona Beach215.7644.96 Naples178.7116.53 Fort Pierce175.3728.87 Kissimmee175.0022.93 Leesburg167.5537.77 Clermont165.5925.96 Eustis165.2127.03 DeLand152.1540.43 Avon Park149.2157.83 Auburndale113.8913.69 New Port Richey87.3014.99 Largo78.949.13 Haines City66.3420.53 Zephyrhills64.7623.60 Homestead43.8312.09 5 miles competition from other business establishments I.e. Ze p h y rhills has less com p etition within 5 miles than sa y Clearwater

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38 Table A.6 reports the number of establishments per 10,000 residents by SIC of business for the 18 Florida Main Streets discussed in this section. The average number of business establishments per 10,000 residents (PTTR) in one mile is 137.4; half of the Comparison Main Streets had more than 152.2 establishments PTTR. Zephyrhills’ Main Street district contains just 64.8 establishments PTTR, less than half of the average. If the seasonal population is considered, the number of establishments PTTR drops even further. This suggests either there is a comparative advantage for businesses to locate outside of the Main Street district or there is an existing market demand for additional goods and services that is not met locally. If the former is true and business locations outside of the Main Street district enjoy a comparative advantage, then Main Street can take steps to reverse the disadvantages. (Some amenities such as ease of parking, vehicular traffic counts, convenience to other goods and services can create a comparative advantage.) RECOMMENDATION: Alternatively, if the differences between business locations are few, then Main Street can concentrate on increasing the number of establishments. Industries with very low numbers of establishments PTTR (compared to the average) are miscellaneous retail stores, eating and drinking establishments, real estate firms, personal and business services, health services6, legal and social services, engineering and management services, and various public administration offices. Only the membership organization industry registers more than one establishment higher than the average PTTR. Zephyrhills’ Main Street district data is closer to the mean for industries in the retail sector, but generally follows a similar pattern. For Zephyrhills’ Main Street employment PTTR in one mile, only two industries, motion pictures and membership organizations, register more than one employee PTTR above the average. Five other industries have less than one employee PTTR above the average. The remaining industries have fewer employees PTTR than the average of Comparison Main Streets. In the retail sector, the industries fairing worst are: eating and drinking establishments, miscellaneous retail stores, food stores, and automotive dealers and service stations. The building materials and garden supplies, variety stores, apparel and accessories, and furniture and home furnishings industries all have employment PTTR very close to the average. The outlook is less harsh when compared to the median values, where Zephyrhills’ Main Street employment PTTR is usually at the median. However, only two Zephyrhills industries have more than ten employees PTTR above the median and neither is a maximum for the industry.

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39 2 Digit Sic APAUCLCWDBDCDLDUEUFPHCHOKILALEMINANPZETOTAL TTL no MI AVGStd Dev 504.74.75.74.11.43.40.011.81.23.92.40.42.62.82.466.11.30.80.011.62.2 6.3014.74 510.92.31.92.71.41.70.03.00.02.90.80.41.30.01.26.30.00.01.21.81.0 1.481.55 522.81.21.93.41.81.70.05.91.21.90.00.41.90.31.20.01.30.01.81.11.3 1.521.44 530.00.00.00.00.70.01.311.81.20.00.00.00.00.01.24.10.00.00.00.90.4 1.072.79 544.71.21.93.43.67.62.023.77.21.02.41.33.20.70.03.42.60.81.22.82.7 3.785.24 5511.32.30.01.45.16.70.720.73.61.91.60.44.50.30.01.80.00.40.62.42.5 3.335.10 560.91.20.02.74.34.24.75.90.02.90.00.05.11.43.621.710.41.51.25.32.5 3.795.09 572.81.20.07.53.25.04.723.73.61.94.01.35.13.11.216.15.21.93.05.43.5 4.985.70 586.63.53.811.67.913.510.738.512.010.70.82.18.30.74.819.914.33.93.68.66.6 9.338.75 5917.89.49.515.711.528.618.050.316.819.58.06.713.56.314.567.731.36.25.320.912.7 18.7716.15 600.91.20.03.41.44.21.311.83.61.01.60.40.00.31.213.15.20.01.23.21.5 2.743.75 610.90.01.94.81.40.80.73.00.00.00.00.85.80.30.02.00.00.40.01.31.1 1.211.67 620.01.20.07.54.00.81.30.00.01.00.00.01.90.71.25.214.30.00.62.31.8 2.093.60 630.90.00.00.00.71.70.70.00.01.90.00.00.00.70.00.00.00.40.00.40.4 0.370.60 641.911.70.04.84.39.30.735.51.24.91.60.47.72.14.81.80.01.54.23.53.8 5.188.03 654.74.75.710.311.27.66.741.52.47.82.41.310.93.52.415.213.04.20.07.56.2 8.189.09 670.00.00.00.00.00.00.70.00.01.00.00.00.00.00.00.90.00.00.00.20.1 0.130.32 700.90.00.00.73.20.80.73.00.00.00.00.42.60.70.00.91.30.40.00.90.9 0.821.02 7211.38.23.87.510.115.18.047.47.27.88.82.912.85.215.78.29.16.64.88.58.5 10.559.55 731.99.43.813.09.410.15.311.83.67.81.60.413.53.89.623.37.84.61.88.76.1 7.515.57 757.51.20.04.16.12.50.70.06.01.02.40.44.52.14.83.60.00.81.82.82.7 2.602.33 764.73.53.82.11.80.80.78.92.43.91.60.03.20.70.018.10.01.21.24.11.7 3.084.23 780.00.00.00.70.40.80.70.00.00.00.00.40.60.01.20.50.00.00.60.30.3 0.310.38 794.73.51.90.74.01.70.08.94.81.00.00.41.90.74.82.72.60.81.22.01.8 2.432.25 806.63.574.210.96.528.610.062.231.10.08.04.610.316.824.14.13.914.73.611.713.0 17.0320.11 812.87.00.023.346.925.222.726.73.647.70.85.810.92.81.2290.824.812.04.256.215.5 29.4364.99 821.90.00.02.71.10.80.03.01.21.00.00.40.01.02.41.80.01.90.61.11.0 1.050.99 832.81.25.73.410.85.03.38.97.21.03.22.13.22.13.62.31.31.90.63.43.6 3.672.76 840.90.00.00.00.70.00.00.01.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.50.00.40.00.20.2 0.190.37 8613.12.39.53.49.05.91.320.77.21.95.62.15.13.12.44.11.35.85.95.05.2 5.794.78 871.93.55.76.29.79.310.720.72.418.50.80.84.51.713.322.011.73.92.48.25.8 7.886.76 890.00.00.00.70.00.00.03.00.00.00.00.00.00.70.00.00.00.00.00.10.2 0.230.70 915.65.90.030.111.925.218.05.918.08.80.81.70.05.615.717.70.04.27.110.28.9 9.598.90 920.94.73.88.23.215.14.03.00.04.90.00.80.60.73.63.40.00.41.22.82.7 3.093.65 930.00.00.02.10.41.70.73.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.41.10.00.00.00.50.4 0.590.97 940.00.00.00.72.91.70.70.01.20.00.00.00.00.30.01.10.00.00.00.60.5 0.450.78 950.01.20.02.70.40.00.70.00.00.00.00.00.61.01.21.80.00.00.60.70.5 0.540.76 960.91.20.02.70.01.72.00.00.00.00.00.40.00.02.42.90.00.00.60.90.6 0.781.05 970.00.00.00.00.71.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.60.00.03.90.00.00.00.70.2 0.360.95 990.00.09.50.70.40.00.00.02.40.00.01.710.90.33.61.19.10.40.01.61.6 2.113.59 TOTAL 149.2113.9165.6222.4215.8276.0152.2577.4165.2175.466.343.8175.078.9167.6710.8178.787.364.8226.3142.5 199.28169.18Population 1 Mile10,6568,5175,25414,61327,71611,88514,9853,3778,35310,26412,51223,95715,60028,6298,29644,1477,66625,88916,832299,148255,00 1 5 Miles27,49470,84233,518211,810133,00424,21856,39614,44651,05762,35340,43086,828119,083247,47436,803408,94882,870150,73046,183 1,904,4871,495,539 TableA.6:MainStreetBusinessEstablishmentsper10,000ResidentsinOneMile

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40 b) Five-Mile Market Area. Table A.7 reports the number of establishments per 10,000 residents for the 18 Florida Main Streets for a five-mile radius. The number of establishments falls as the market radius increases. Results for Main Street Zephyrhills are comparable to the 1-mile area results. c) It appears from the data that Zephyrhills’ Main Street district has potential to increase the number of establishments and employees based upon spending by the local population. Many of the industries with low numbers are similar to those noted as weak above, providing additional support for the attraction of businesses in these industries. C. The Changing Role of Small Community Shopping Districts in Growing Population Environments: Issues and Prospects. 1. Small Communities are Components of a Larger Regional Economy. Residents of small communities purchase some goods and services in larger cities. Goods purchased outside the community are big-ticket retail items such as automobiles, and specialized services as in some medical treatments. Retail sales and service are limited by the size of the local population. Zephyrhills is a satellite of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA. The independent nature of Zephyrhills arises from its distance from Tampa. Metropolitan areas continue to grow, absorbing small communities that were formerly geographically distinct from the larger metro area. a) Expanding transportation systems, water, sewer, and electric lines accompany residential suburbanization. New development often occurs through the construction of large residential subdivisions. Increased pressure on existing roads and water treatment plants may lead to congestion and environmental degradation. Small communities experiencing urbanization should plan for new development. Communities should work to insure the protection and expansion of existing community assets in the face of new development. b) As small communities are absorbed into the metropolitan area, the demographics of the population change. New residents work in the metro area. They may be younger and have children under 18 years of age. As the population changes, the function of the small community changes.

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41 2 Digit Sic APAUCLCWDBDCDLDUEUFPHCHOKILALEMINANPZETOTAL TTL no MI AVGStd Dev 501.80.60.90.30.31.70.02.80.20.60.70.10.30.30.57.10.10.10.01.80.4 0.981.66 510.40.30.30.20.30.80.00.70.00.50.20.10.20.00.30.70.00.00.40.30.2 0.280.25 521.10.10.30.20.40.80.01.40.20.30.00.10.30.00.30.00.10.00.60.20.2 0.330.39 530.00.00.00.00.20.00.42.80.20.00.00.00.00.00.30.40.00.00.00.10.1 0.220.63 541.80.10.30.20.83.70.55.51.20.20.70.30.40.10.00.40.20.10.40.40.5 0.901.41 554.40.30.00.11.13.30.24.80.60.30.50.10.60.00.00.20.00.10.20.40.4 0.881.51 560.40.10.00.20.92.11.21.40.00.50.00.00.70.20.82.31.00.30.40.80.4 0.650.69 571.10.10.00.50.72.51.25.50.60.31.20.30.70.40.31.70.50.31.10.80.6 1.011.25 582.50.40.60.81.76.62.89.02.01.80.20.61.10.11.12.21.30.71.31.31.1 1.932.24 596.91.11.51.12.414.04.811.82.73.22.51.81.80.73.37.32.91.11.93.32.2 3.833.69 600.40.10.00.20.32.10.42.80.60.20.50.10.00.00.31.40.50.00.40.50.2 0.540.74 610.40.00.30.30.30.40.20.70.00.00.00.20.80.00.00.20.00.10.00.20.2 0.200.23 620.00.10.00.50.80.40.40.00.00.20.00.00.30.10.30.61.30.00.20.40.3 0.270.35 630.40.00.00.00.20.80.20.00.00.30.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.10.00.10.1 0.100.21 640.71.40.00.30.94.50.28.30.20.80.50.11.00.21.10.20.00.31.50.60.6 1.172.01 651.80.60.90.72.33.71.89.70.41.30.70.31.40.40.51.61.20.70.01.21.0 1.592.15 670.00.00.00.00.00.00.20.00.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.0 0.020.06 700.40.00.00.00.70.40.20.70.00.00.00.10.30.10.00.10.10.10.00.10.2 0.170.22 724.41.00.60.52.17.42.111.11.21.32.70.81.70.63.50.90.81.11.71.31.5 2.402.69 730.71.10.60.92.05.01.42.80.61.30.50.11.80.42.22.50.70.80.61.41.0 1.371.15 752.90.10.00.31.31.20.20.01.00.20.70.10.60.21.10.40.00.10.60.40.5 0.590.71 761.80.40.60.10.40.40.22.10.40.60.50.00.40.10.02.00.00.20.40.60.3 0.560.65 780.00.00.00.00.10.40.20.00.00.00.00.10.10.00.30.00.00.00.20.10.1 0.080.12 791.80.40.30.00.80.80.02.10.80.20.00.10.30.11.10.30.20.10.40.30.3 0.520.59 802.50.411.60.81.414.02.714.55.10.02.51.31.31.95.40.40.42.51.31.82.2 3.694.58 811.10.80.01.69.812.46.06.20.67.90.21.61.40.30.331.42.32.11.58.82.6 4.617.42 820.70.00.00.20.20.40.00.70.20.20.00.10.00.10.50.20.00.30.20.20.2 0.220.23 831.10.10.90.22.32.50.92.11.20.21.00.60.40.20.80.20.10.30.20.50.6 0.810.74 840.40.00.00.00.20.00.00.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.0 0.040.10 865.10.31.50.21.92.90.44.81.20.31.70.60.70.40.50.40.11.02.20.80.9 1.381.48 870.70.40.90.42.04.52.84.80.43.00.20.20.60.23.02.41.10.70.91.31.0 1.551.48 890.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.70.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.040.16 912.20.70.02.12.512.44.81.42.91.40.20.50.00.63.51.90.00.72.61.61.5 2.132.81 920.40.60.60.60.77.41.10.70.00.80.00.20.10.10.80.40.00.10.40.40.5 0.781.64 930.00.00.00.10.10.80.20.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.50.10.00.00.00.10.1 0.140.26 940.00.00.00.00.60.80.20.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.10.1 0.110.23 950.00.10.00.20.10.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.10.10.30.20.00.00.20.10.1 0.080.09 960.40.10.00.20.00.80.50.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.50.30.00.00.20.10.1 0.170.24 970.00.00.00.00.20.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.40.00.00.00.10.0 0.080.21 990.00.01.50.00.10.00.00.00.40.00.00.51.40.00.80.10.80.10.00.20.3 0.300.49 TOTAL 57.813.726.015.345.0135.440.4135.027.028.920.512.122.99.137.876.716.515.023.635.624.3 39.9437.61Population 1 Mile10,6568,5175,25414,61327,71611,88514,9853,3778,35310,26412,51223,95715,60028,6298,29644,1477,66625,88916,832299,148255,00 1 5 Miles27,49470,84233,518211,810133,00424,21856,39614,44651,05762,35340,43086,828119,083247,47436,803408,94882,870150,73046,183 1,904,4871,495,539 TableA.7:MainStreetBusinessEstablishmentsper10,000ResidentsinFiveMiles

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42 i. Residential growth generates households whose members commute to jobs in the MSA. Commuter households divide their activities between the new residential community and their places of work. Commuters still utilize the services and retail outlets, but the mix of goods and services they demand may differ from the demands of older residents. ii. With the increase in population come new retail and service outlets. As in Zephyrhills, new business may follow patterns of ribbon development and shopping malls. With proper support, however, commuters can provide long term support for Main Street shopping centers. iii. Case Study: Small Community Main Streets and MSA-Suburb Relationships over time: Main Street, Metuchen, New Jersey ________________________________________________________________ Metuchen, New Jersey is three-quarters of an hour journey by train from Penn Square Station, Manhattan. Metuchen is located in Middlesex County a short drive from New Brunswick and from Trenton. The town had strong ties to New York City prior to the advent of automobile transportation and that retains its commuter characteristics today. Despite changes in transportation and shopping patterns, Metuchen’s Main Street shopping area continues to function as the town center. Main Street is located on an artery that connects a small number of communities in the densely populated region. A train station and trestle define the southern edge of the shopping district. A taxi-limousine service and a moderate amount of parking link the station to downtown. From there the Main Street runs approximately three blocks north. The “big box” retailers and chain restaurants that line U.S. Highway 1, a major shopping district, a few miles away, are not represented on Main Street. Neither are space-intensive quasi-industrial activities such as gas stations, repair shops and funeral parlors. The typical business occupies less than 1,000 square feet. The breakdown by type of activity is: Retail 29% Service 48% Restaurants 12% Financial 7% Government 4% Main Street Metuchen has weathered a number of changes. Recent economic growth in population and income has increased demand, but competition has grown as well. The range of shopping alternatives available to Metuchen residents has expanded. The role of Main Street Metuchen in

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43 the region changed in consequence. Even residents abutting Main Street travel to large chain retailers on U.S. 1 and elsewhere for some goods. The importance of Main Street as a fraction of all activity for local residents has diminished. Yet Main Street Metuchen remains a vital part of northern New Jersey’s retail and service industry. ____________________________________________________________ D. Main Streets in Local Communities: The Desire for Community. 1. Communities in Metropolitan Areas. The word “community” has different connotations in different contexts. In its most general sense, a community is a group of households in a given locale. A more meaningful interpretation of community includes a set of shared interests and goals, and a set of mechanisms through which the individuals who make up the community can meet those interests and share those goals. a) Traditional Concepts of Community. i. One concept of community is the degree of homogeneity of households. Not all communities are homogeneous. The degree of homogeneity is correlated with setting common goals and pursuing common interests. When interests are diverse, or when they conflict, the community must develop mechanisms for brokering interests. ii. Municipal governments. The most common institutions used to broker interests and arrive at consensus are those associated with municipal government. Municipal governments are charged with: Providing and regulating public goods and services. Creating and maintaining public spaces. Maintaining public order. Protecting and regulating private property. iii. Social networks. Social organizations are also used to promote communal activities. Examples of local social organizations are: Sports leagues Membership organizations Religious groups b) Downtown shopping areas play an important role in maintaining community identity.

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44 i. Downtown areas provide common meeting areas for residents of the community. Downtown shopping precincts often provide space for recreational activities. Restaurants, theaters, and other leisure activities. A venue for holiday celebrations. Location for community groups such as the chamber of commerce to meet. ii. Extended residential areas in MSA’s are a manifestation of the growth of suburbs. Many suburbs lack a community identity. The extent to which a suburban residential area attains a community identity depends upon patterns of land use and upon the political identity of the area prior being subjected to urban development. Suburban residential development in many MSA’s created large areas— often incorporating dozens of square miles—of adjacent subdivisions linked by four and six lane roads lined with commercial ribbon development. Such development often replaces agriculture, forestland, or on other types of open space. Greenfield development may result in extended sub-areas of the MSA that lack municipal government serving their immediate geographic area and have no central shopping district. Residential suburbs are served by county level police, fire, education and sanitation services. A lack of communal facilities and local resident involvement in social and political organizations in these areas leads residents to look for community infrastructure elsewhere. As a result, families may become involved in social activities at distant locations from their residences. Public schools may be a long bus ride from home. After school activities and churches may distant from the residence. Youth sports and civic associations in other areas may command the loyalties of suburban residents. Different patterns of suburban development may occur when the expanding suburbs reach and then incorporate pre-existing communities. When the communities absorbed have been able to maintain their original identities, they may evolve into identifiable satellite cities, however altered by development. Satellite cities may maintain local control over municipal services. Local jurisdictions may be able to control zoning and land use, preserve historic structures, and manage transportation patterns. Moreover, the downtown commercial districts of these satellite cities are potential epicenters for shopping, office development, and community activities for the expanding suburban population.

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45 Zephyrhills will soon be in the position of a satellite city, surrounded by households oriented toward the Tampa economy. Future residential development in Zephyrhills has the potential to benefit from the existence of municipal government and its services, and well as from pre-existing businesses and economic, including Main Street Zephyrhills. 2. Creating Communities in Suburbs is Viewed as Desirable. City planners, architects, and developers recognize the importance of local community as part of suburban growth. a) “New Urbanism” concepts focus on the importance of neighborhood and community as parts of the living environment of households that dwell in metropolitan regions with large populations that cover large geographic areas. Many new developments consequently have begun to design residential areas that incorporate the institutions of traditional communities. One of the tenets of the new urbanist developers is that retail and service activity should occur in downtown areas rather than as strip centers and ribbon development. i. Main Street Zephyrhills can fill this crucial role as the city is integrated into the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA. ii. Other new developments devote land and expend capital to create downtown areas as part of new housing development. b) Case Study: The center of community in a retirement development – The Villages, located near the city of Wildwood, Florida A large new residential community based upon ideas generated by “new urbanism” contains a very different type of Main Street. The Villages is an upscale retirement community located in rural southwest Florida, northeast of Tampa and west of Orlando. CEDR staff visited The Villages on August 18, 2001. Residential occupancy was 60% complete. The Villages is a planned community built entirely de novo The private developer provides residences, roads, sewer, water, and other infrastructure. The community boasts medical facilities and a shopping center with a Publix food store in separate commercial developments. The town center complex is a prominent feature of the development’s main entrance. Town center consists of a Main Street two blocks in length that opens on to a town square. The square is complete with a central plaza. The entire complex is built around a southwestern U.S. motif. During our visit, several restaurants were in operation and there was entertainment in the plaza. But the majority of space on the town square and along its

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46 entranceway had not been substantially occupied. The Main Street precinct did not function primarily as a shopping area, nor were medical services provided. The primary activities at the time of our visit were related to entertainment and leisure. The town center appeared to be designed to provide a sense of community for residents. A sense of community may be important to the residents of The Villages for two reasons. All residents are new arrivals from other places, needing opportunities to increase circles of acquaintances and to find other residents with shared interests. Because residents are retired, workplace activities cannot fulfill these functions. The Villages town center serves a second function, which is to provide an outlet for activities of residents. Spatial isolation of the development renders travel to centers of community in distant locations as difficult and time-consuming. _______________________________________________________________ E. Trends in Zephyrhills: The Foundations of a Market Study. Main Street Zephyrhills has elements in common with Main Street Metuchen and the town center that has been incorporated in the development of The Villages. Like Metuchen, Main Street Zephyrhills grew up as part of the community and has been a feature of the town for a long time. Also like Metuchen’s Main Street, Main Street Zephyrhills has served the local population in retail sales and services. There have also been differences between the two Main Streets. Metuchen is a commuter town. The town’s railway station, still serving a number of New York City workers, sits next to Metuchen’s Main Street. Zephyrhills began and developed as a retirement center. Its downtown lacks a commuter population who values its convenience for evening and weekend shopping. Zephyrhills’ retiree households, small in size and of modest means, spend less per capita on many goods and services than do Metuchen’s commuter households. Moreover, Zephyrhills’ population is seasonal. Estimates are that up to 20 percent of residents reside elsewhere during the summer months. These differences combine to generate smaller sales volume in Zephyrhills than in Metuchen. The Villages is dedicated to a retired population. Distant from the larger cities of Tampa and Orlando, it will also be self-contained to a greater extent than commuter towns. The Villages shares these characteristics with Zephyrhills. Unlike Zephyrhills, The Villages’ town center was imposed on the landscape by a private development corporation. New and purpose-built, it has been designed to market the community to higher income retirees. It functions as a visible signal that The Villages is more than a residential development—it has been created as a living environment complete with services and communal facilities.

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47 Analogous to clubhouses in golf course communities, The Villages town center has been designed to increase the values of residential lots and to attract buyers. For the developers, these functions may outweigh its long-term profitability as a retail and service complex, even though the builders envision it as being fully occupied and eventually serving the latter functions. The demographics of Zephyrhills are changing. Southeastern Pasco County is being absorbed into the expanding suburbs of Hillsborough County. Access via I-75 and lower housing costs in Pasco County have attracted working-age couples and their children to housing developments close to Zephyrhills. Inmigrating working-age households are more likely to be working in the TampaHillsborough County market area rather than Zephyrhills. Planning considerations should incorporate the probability that these households will also identify their workplaces as shopping and recreation destinations. They are also likely to patronize establishments in the growing areas of New Tampa and Wesley Chapel as shopping and recreational destinations, as these areas lie in their commutes. New residents, like the residents of Metuchen, are commuters. Zephyrhills will thus begin to resemble Metuchen to a greater and greater extent. Zephyrhills’ retiree population, with its seasonal occupancy, can also be expected to retain residences in the town. Like Metuchen, higher population density and year-round residents have attracted chain retail and service firms to Zephyrhills. Retailers, observing this trend, continue to erect new facilities at the I-75 interchange, and eastward from the Saddlebrook Resort. Thus, in the future, the community of Zephyrhills will serve both the function of Metuchen and the function of The Villages. The great question, that remains to be answered, is how Zephyrhills will be developed. One possibility is that Zephyrhills will retain its identity as a small community surrounded by residents, many of whom commute to jobs elsewhere in the region. Another possibility is that Zephyrhills will be absorbed as one of the many suburbs of Tampa—a group of subdivisions connected by ribbon development. Assuming that in any case development will come, citizens of Zephyrhills have some say in the future of their community. A thriving Main Street that acts as a central focus for community recreation, shopping and other leisure activities, can help Zephyrhills preserve its historical identity.

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48 V. Market Analysis: Retail and Service Establishments in Main Street Zephyrhills. The size of the market area of a retail or service establishment can be evaluated by the application of a set of principles. The principles can be incorporated into models that utilize information on the demographics of the region, transportation networks, and travel patterns. These models can be used to develop revenue planning, marketing, and location strategies. A. Defining Your Firm’s Customer Base. 1. What is My Firm’s Customer Base? Your firm’s customer base consists of households who patronize your retail or service establishment. Retail and service activities incur fixed costs. Fixed costs must be diluted over the customer base. The larger fixed costs as a percent of sale price, the larger must be the customer base to and/or the higher the mark-up on each item sold. Fixed costs include inventory expenses and costs of space required for inventory storage, management, record keeping and other overhead, and certain taxes. They can also include the human capital of your firm’s employees. That is, the amount of training, education, and practice required of your employees. a) The volume of sales at your store depends upon three factors. i. The size of your customer base—the number of households patronizing the business. ii. The demographic characteristics of your customers—the frequency with which they visit your store, and the quantity they purchase during each visit. Demographic characteristics of importance, that are readily observable include: The size of the population around the store Personal income of households residing around the store Ages of household occupants around the store Regional characteristics of the population, related to ethnicity, weather, and other factors Education, as an indicator of consumer tastes iii. The number and proximity of your competitors. The customer base must be shared among competing firms in the community. The number of stores of a specific type in a community depends upon total demand and individual store size.

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49 B. If Most of Your Customers Live in Surrounding Residential Areas You Must Delineate Your Market Area 1. What Is Your Market Area? Market area is a spatial concept related to customers’ abilities to access the facility, or for the store to access its customer base. The market area for a firm may be pictured as a spatial area about the store and the “point of origin” of your firm’s sales. The point of origin for many retail and service purchases is the household’s residence. Examples are groceries, clothing purchases, home furnishings, and family entertainment. The boundaries of the spatial area represent the most distant customers. Your customer base is determined by your business’s market area. Customers lying outside of the boundary either purchase the goods or services at another location or do not purchase the goods or services. 2. What Determines Your Market Area? Your firm’s market area is a function of the customer base that is required to keep your business profitable, and of population density and the costs of customer access, which together determine the demand for your products. 3. How Do Distance and Travel Time and Distance Travel Expense Combine to Determine Your Firm’s Market Area? The key to retail and service marketing is access. Access costs have negative impacts on firm competitiveness. Access costs are the expenditure and time required for transferring commodities from the store to the residence, and the travel time and expense required for service employees to provide service to the customer. a) The larger your overhead, or fixed costs, and the greater are the price savings that you gain from increased scale of operations, the larger your market area must be. Scale economies allow firms to operate with lower sales margins and reduce the required sales mark-ups. b) The greater the number of trips made by customers, and the greater the proportion of the market that utilizes your firm’s products, the smaller your minimum required market area will be. There are two reasons for this. First, goods purchased frequently, such as milk, bakery products and newspapers, increase volume given the customer base, allowing firms to achieve size economies with fewer customers. Second, products purchased rarely, such as big-ticket items like furniture and automobiles, reduce trip frequency hence access costs.

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50 c) Access costs limit the customer base hence sales volume. Small communities have less extensive roadways but less traffic density. Large communities are more apt to feature expressways and rapid transit systems lower access costs, but suffer from traffic congestion. Other things being equal, better access to the store will increase the size of your market area. d) National chains and branding increase the demands for individual products and increase the price and access costs customers are willing to incur. This increases the size of the market area. 4. Often, the Concept of Market Area is Extended to Those of a “Primary Market Area”, a “Secondary Market Area” and a “Tertiary Market Area”. a) The primary market area is the geographic area adjacent to your store from within which 65% to 75% of your sales are generated. b) The secondary market area extends beyond the primary area and generates between 15% and 20% of sales. Customers in the secondary market area regularly purchase goods from competitors located at other sites. c) The tertiary market area extends beyond the secondary area and generates 5% to 10% of total sales. 5. Neighborhood and Shopping Center Market Areas. An Alternative Method Used to Classify a Firm’s Market Area Uses Rules of Thumb about Driving Time from the Store. a) An often used rule of thumb for suburban and small city retail market areas is that a “neighborhood market area” is within a 6 minute drive of its customers. CEDR estimates that a six-minute driving time around Main Street Zephyrhills translates into a circular market with a radius of four miles around Main Street. This radius is the primary market area for neighborhood stores such as food markets, drug stores, and clothes cleaning establishments. b) A second rule of thumb for suburban and small city retail market areas is that a “shopping center area”, a larger area for stores that serve customers outside the neighborhood, is within a 15 minute drive time for its customers. CEDR estimates that a 15-minute drive time around Main Street Zephyrhills translates into a circular market with a radius of ten miles around Main Street. This radius is the primary market area for larger stores such as home improvement stores and department stores, and for many entertainment and household services. Exhibit 3 displays driving times within 6 and 15 mile radii of Main Street Zephyrhills and Main Street Dade City.

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52 C. Demographic Analysis of the Zephyrhills Retail and Service Market. Demographic analysis is the enumeration of the characteristics of the population of a target area. Retail and service market analysis includes demographic data to construct predictive measures of the population’s buying power and shopping preferences in terms of commodities, prices, and travel. 1. Demographic Data is Available from a Number of Sources. Some of these sources are listed below. CEDR uses this data to construct estimates of consumer demand for areas defined as concentric circles about Main Street Zephyrhills. a) Most complete and detailed is the 2000 Census of population and housing. The 2000 Census collected data on a wide range of individual and household characteristics. It also collected data about the housing stock. CEDR used Census 2000 data extensively in its demographic analysis of Zephyrhills and southeast Pasco County. b) During the years between the dicennial censuses, the U.S. Commerce Department conducts small-area population samples that are used to estimate population and income. These estimates are reported as the Current Population Survey. c) Private companies provide county-based estimates of population and income. CEDR subscribes to the CACI database through the GIS statistical package ARCVIEW. d) The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) reports estimates of consumer spending by commodity type and by county. e) Employment and wage estimates by SIC codes are available from the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation as part of the ES202 data series. 2. The 2000 Census, Conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Measured the Population of Zephyrhills at 10,833 during April 2000. The census enumerated 6,167 housing units, of which 4,944 were occupied. Occupied units comprised 80.2% of all units counted by the census. Of the vacant units, 767 or 63.0% were for seasonal or occasional use. The census also found that the average number of persons per occupied household was 2.2 during April 2000. Zephyrhills has a large retiree population. Many retired residents reside in Zephyrhills on a part-time basis, usually during the winter months. When the winter season is at its peak and all seasonal households are present, CEDR estimates that the population of the city of Zephyrhills expands to 12,514.

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53 3. Population in the City of Zephyrhills Has More than Tripled Since 1970. The average growth rate for the city’s population was 4.0% per year for the period 1970 to 2000. During the past decade of 1990 to 2000 the growth rate fell to 2.8% per year Florida’s average annual growth rate, by comparison, has dropped from 2.9% over the 1970-2000 period to 2.1% during the last decade. The city and state growth rates remain well above the national average. U.S. population growth remained stable at 1.1% to 1.2% per year for the past thirty years. a) Within what CEDR has designated the Main Street Zephyrhills’ shopping center area—the area east of Interstate 75 and south of State Road 52, State Road 579A and Townsend Road—population has grown more rapidly than in the City of Zephyrhills. The shopping center area includes most of southeast Pasco County. CEDR defined this area by the Bureau of Census 2000 census tracts: 321.01, 321.02, 328, 329, 330.01, 330.02, 330.03, 330.04, and 331. (See Exhibit 4 for the 1980 boundaries of census tracts in southeast Pasco County.) In 2000, the population in these tracts doubled from 1980 to 59,631. The twenty-year growth rate of 119.8% is almost twice as large as Florida’s rate of 64.0%. Most of the new population in southeast Pasco County occupies new housing developments that have been constructed in the area along State Road 54 from I-75 to Zephyrhills. b) There is a strong seasonal component of the population in southeast Pasco County as well as in the city of Zephyrhills. Southeast Pasco contains 33,527 housing units, 25,988 of which are occupied on a year-round basis. Nearly three-quarters of the vacant units (5,542) are for seasonal use. Applying a region-wide household density of 2.3 persons per unit, it is estimated that 12,746 seasonal residents spend a portion of the year in southeast Pasco County. Thus, the total winter population of southeast Pasco County is estimated to be 72,519. c) The year-round population of the CEDR’s neighborhood shopping area is estimated to be 43,543. Added to year-round residents is a seasonal component of 11,462 in the winter months. For CEDR’s shopping center market area that approximates southeast Pasco County, the year-round population is estimated to be 58,811 with the seasonal component adding 12,673 part-year residents. If we assume that part-year residents spend five months per year7 in the Zephyrhills area, then the market area population can be annualized for spending projections by counting each seasonal resident as 5/12’s of a year-round resident. Applying this percentage, CEDR estimates the annualized population at 48,319 for the neighborhood shopping market area and 64,091 for the shopping center market area.

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55 4. Population Growth from 1970-2000 a) Population figures for the city of Zephyrhills and for southeast Pasco County are shown below in Table 4 for the periods from 1970 to 2000. Table 4 – Population Population Area 1970 1980 1990 2000 Zephyrhills City 3,369 5,742 8,220 10,833 Southeast Pasco County Not Available 27,134 41,758 59,631 In 1980, 21.2% of the population in southeast Pasco County lived in the city of Zephyrhills. By 2000, that percentage had declined to 18.2%. This is a natural result of the ratio of a large land base in the unincorporated area to a much more limited supply within the city limits. In addition to losing overall share of the population, Zephyrhills is losing market share in the percentage of the growth moving to the area choosing to locate within the city limits. From 1980 to 1990, Zephyrhills attracted 16.9% of new residents, whereas from 1990 to 2000, the percentage fell to 14.6%. b) In 1980, 21.2% of the population in southeast Pasco County lived in the city of Zephyrhills. By 2000, that percentage had declined to 18.2%. This is a natural result of the ratio of a large land base in the unincorporated area to a much more limited supply within the city limits. In addition to losing overall share of the population, Zephyrhills is losing market share in the percentage of the growth moving to the area choosing to locate within the city limits. From 1980 to 1990, Zephyrhills attracted 16.9% of new residents, whereas from 1990 to 2000, the percentage fell to 14.6%. Exhibit 5 “Current Population: Zephyrhills and Surrounding Communities”, reports population by census tract for Zephyrhills and surrounding communities. The national rate for the past decade is slightly greater than the same measurement for the twenty and thirty year time periods, as is shown in Table 5 The opposite is true for Florida, southeast Pasco County and Zephyrhills. The average annual growth rate has decreased over the last three decades, the result of an increase in the base on which the rate is calculated. Eventually, as the available land is absorbed and density maximized, the growth rate will taper to near zero. It appears that this is not the current condition of the area surrounding Zephyrhills and so it is expected that population will continue to grow. Table 5 – Average Annual Growth Rates Area 1970 to 2000 1980 to 2000 1990 to 2000 Zephyrhills City 4.0% 3.2% 2.8% Southeast Pasco Not Available 4.0% 3.6% Florida 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% United States 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

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57 c) Housing units are also an important component of a community’s growth and development. Adding housing units enables a community to accommodate increased population as well as building the tax base. Evaluating the change in housing units by jurisdiction helps determine whether Zephyrhills’ housing infrastructure is keeping pace with the population growth in the area. Housing units can range from apartments to mobile homes to single-family homes, with each type contributing equally to the total (i.e. a building with 10 apartments is the equivalent of 10 single-family homes when measuring housing units.) Total housing units, absolute change and percent changes over time are shown for Zephyrhills and southeast Pasco County in Table 6 Zephyrhills continues to add new housing units, but at a decreasing rate over time. The city added more than one new unit for every four in existence from 1980 to 1990. However, from 1990 to 2000, that number decreased to one new unit for every 5.5. Combined with the rapid growth of new units in the area surrounding the city, housing in Zephyrhills is becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the available residences; in 1980, housing in the city constituted 23.5% of total housing, falling to 18.4% in 2000. Table 6 – Housing Units Housing Units 1980 1990 2000 Zephyrhills City 4,077 5,209 6,167 Southeast Pasco 17,383 24,932 33,527 Change in Units 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 1980 to 2000 Zephyrhills City 1,132 958 2,090 Southeast Pasco 7,549 8,595 16,144 Growth Rate 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 1980 to 2000 Zephyrhills City 27.8% 18.4% 51.3% Southeast Pasco 43.4% 34.5% 92.9% d) It appears that while southeast Pasco County continues to add a volume of new housing units, Zephyrhills is not keeping pace. In 1980, the city’s new units accounted for 15.0% of all new units in the area. By 2000, the city’s portion had fallen to 11.1%. So while the city is capturing 14.6% of the area’s population growth, an equivalent amount of housing units is not being added. As a result, the new population is moving into previously vacant dwellings. While this can have extremely positive results, such as the rehabilitation of old and historic homes, as well as redevelopment of neighborhoods, the trend can also limit the future of Zephyrhills. Without a competitive housing option, the city fails to capture a proportional share of population growth. This translates into a lost opportunity to increase potential spending in the community, the property tax base and community spirit.

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58 5. Population by Age: The Components of Population Change. a) As southeast Pasco continues to urbanize, population growth and age distribution will affect both Zephyrhills and the future of Main Street. Moreover, changes in the age composition of the population will have just as great an impact on the future of Main Street Zephyrhills as changes in total population. By understanding the historical trends and extrapolating them into the future, Main Street can tailor redevelopment to meet future demand for retail shopping and services. This section details changes in the age structure of the city of Zephyrhills and of southeast Pasco County. b) There are two methods of measuring the changing age of the southeast Pasco population. A straightforward method is to analyze the growth in population by age range in stasis. The second method consists of examining the changes in population figures over time, by following age group cohorts over time. i. In 1980 almost half of southeast Pasco’s population was over age 55 (49.3%) and over one-third of the population was over 65 (34.5%). Today, those figures are smaller: 41.9% of the population is older than 55 and 30.3% is over 65. These figures are substantially higher than the average population distribution nationally, where 21.1% of the population is over 55 and only 12.4% is over 65. The population in southeast Pasco is shown in Table 7 by age range for Census years 1980, 1990 and 2000. Table 8 shows the absolute changes and Table 9 shows the percent change in each age group. Tables 8 and 9 cover three time spans: 1980 to 1990; 1990 to 2000; and 1980 to 2000. Separating the growth by decade highlights the shift in the age of the typical newcomer to southeast Pasco. From 1980 to 1990, it was much more likely for an older person with established wealth and education to move into southeast Pasco than for someone under 25. Between 1980 and 1990, southeast Pasco added 5,828 residents over 65 to only 2,334 under 25, a ratio of two and one-half to one. In the same time period the largest absolute growth (6,427) into southeast Pasco consisted in persons of labor-force age (25 to 64). For the 1990’s decade, the population growth shifted. Continuing to dominate the growth are persons between the ages 25 and 64, which added 10,149 people and accounted for 56.8% of total growth. However, from 1990 to 2000, growth was much more pronounced in the younger generation than in the elder one. Southeast Pasco added 4,813 residents under 25, compared to 2,911 residents over 65, almost the reverse of the previous decade.

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59 Table 7Population by Age Group: Southeastern Pasco CountyAge Range198019902000 Zero to 4 years1,2111,8293,126 5 to 9 years1,2731,8783,150 10 to 14 years1,4811,8333,107 15 to 19 years1,6201,9422,697 20 to 24 years1,2601,6971,912 25 to 34 years2,5804,3366,208 35 to 44 years2,1184,1697,692 45 to 54 years2,2383,5186,707 55 to 64 years4,0285,3686,933 65 to 74 years5,8358,8349,245 75 and older3,5256,3548,854Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 Census of Population and Housing, Table 194; 1990 Census of Population and Housing, PL 94-171 Data, 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF1Population Table 8Population by Age Change: Southeastern Pasco CountyAge Range1980 to 19901990 to 20001980 to 2000 Zero to 4 years6181,2971,915 5 to 9 years6051,2721,877 10 to 14 years3521,2741,626 15 to 19 years3227551,077 20 to 24 years437215652 25 to 34 years1,7561,8723,628 35 to 44 years2,0513,5235,574 45 to 54 years1,2803,1894,469 55 to 64 years1,3401,5652,905 65 to 74 years2,9994113,410 75 and older2,8292,5005,329 Population ChangeSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 Census of Population and Housing, Table 194; 1990 Census of Population and Housing, PL 94-171 Data, 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF1 Table 9Percentage Change Population by Age: Southeastern Pasco CountyAge Range1980 to 19901990 to 20001980 to 2000 Zero to 4 years51.0%70.9%158.1% 5 to 9 years47.5%67.7%147.4% 10 to 14 years23.8%69.5%109.8% 15 to 19 years19.9%38.9%66.5% 20 to 24 years34.7%12.7%51.7% 25 to 34 years68.1%43.2%140.6% 35 to 44 years96.8%84.5%263.2% 45 to 54 years57.2%90.6%199.7% 55 to 64 years33.3%29.2%72.1% 65 to 74 years51.4%4.7%58.4% 75 and older80.3%39.3%151.2% Growth RatesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 Census of Population and Housing, Table 194; 1990 Census of Population and Housing, PL 94-171 Data, 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF1

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60 Population growth distribution over the total twenty-year period was slightly skewed toward the older age ranges, but the overall growth was still dominated by working-age persons. The two age ranges having the highest twenty-year growth rates were those in the 34 to 45 and 45 to 54 age groups. These grew 263.2% and 199.7% respectively over the period. The turnaround in the population growth of the younger ages in the 1990’s helped propel these age ranges into the fastest growing group. Residents aged zero to four registered the third largest gain (158.1%). As a result of changing age patterns of migration, the younger and the older resident groups achieved a near-balance in twenty-year absolute population change—southeast Pasco added 7,147 residents under 25 and 8,739 residents over 65. ii. Population growth’s impact on the relative proportion of each age group in southeast Pasco is shown by the percentage of the population in each age range. Chart 1 shows the population distribution by age for southeast Pasco in 1980, 1990 and 2000. The national population distribution is included for comparison purposes. In all but four of the age ranges, southeast Pasco is trending toward the national average. That is, the age bars for southeast Pasco moved closer in height to the age bar for the U.S in 2000. The age ranges where southeast Pasco seems to be diverging from the national average are 10-14 year-olds, 15-19 year-olds, 20-24 year-olds, and 75 and older. Two age groups, 15 to 19 year-olds and 20 to 24 year-olds, have consistently been moving in the opposite direction from the national average. Referring to Chart 1, the over 75 age group and the 10 to 14 age group began trending towards the national average in 1990s after moving away from the national average in 1980s. The 10 to 14 age group posted the second lowest growth for the 1980 to 1990 decade, but in the following ten years had the fourth highest growth of all age groups. The opposite is true of the over 75 age range, which had the second highest growth in the 1980’s decade, but dropped to the fourth lowest in the 1990’s. The over 75 age group and the 10 to 14 age group began trending towards the national average in 1990 after moving away from that average in 1980. The 10 to 14 age group posted the second lowest growth for the 1980 to 1990 decade, but in the following ten years had the fourth highest growth of all age groups. The opposite is true of the over 75 age range, which had the second highest growth in the 1980’s decade, but dropped to the fourth lowest in the 1990’s.

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61 Chart 1 Population Distribution by Age Range 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Zero to 4 years 5 to 9 years10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 and older SE Pasco County 1980 SE Pasco County 1990 SE Pasco County 2000 United States 2000

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62 iii. Absolute growth numbers also report very small changes in the 20 to 24year-old age group. Slow growth in this population group compared with large overall population growth rate resulted in a rapid fall in the age group’s proportion of total population. Slow growth in this age group may result from several factors. Many 20 to 24-year-olds attend college, frequently away from home. Non-college bound young persons tend to seek employment and career opportunities. The commercial activity in the southeast Pasco County is smaller than in nearby cities. Thus, one would expect a young person to move to areas with potential employment opportunities. A third reason for the small growth of 20 to 24-year-olds is that new housing development in southeast Pasco is geared towards single family homes. Most young people between the ages of 20 and 24 are not in a financial position to purchase a home, even if they have already started a family. Thus, restricted housing opportunities in Zephyrhills, associated with a lack of employment opportunities, may lead this segment of the population to other locations in the metropolitan area. iv. The same factors that lead to the reduced share of 20 to 24-year olds may contribute to the observed decline in the proportion of persons aged 15 to 19 in southeast Pasco County. The fall in the proportion of 15 to 19-yearolds may also result from the mathematics of population growth. While the age group did grow from 1980 to 2000, increasing by two-thirds, the growth in all other age categories except two was greater. As a result of being outpaced in growth, the age group’s relative share of overall population falls. c) When looking at population changes over time, it is also important to measure the growth of population cohorts as they move through the age ranges. An age cohort follows a specific aged population group as it ages over time. Thus, an age cohort attempts to quantify the net change in numbers of a given age group over time. Analysis of cohorts shows the net effect of population changes while accounting for the passage of time. We now examine age cohorts and follow them, measuring changes in populations, as they age. Table 10 shows the percent changes in cohort groups with each census beginning with the 1980 Census. i. The striking difference between the analysis by cohort and the straightforward analysis without regard to the population itself aging is seen in the population over 75 years of age. The examination of numbers of persons from 1980 to 2000 appeared to show that the population over 75 was growing rapidly, posting a twenty-year gain of 151.2%. However, measurement of population change by cohort shows steady population loss in the elderly, aged over 75. This population “loss” is a result of combining the over 65 group with the over 75 group in 1980, and measuring the difference in this sum versus the 1990 population over 75.

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63 Table 10 Percenta g e Chan g e in A g e Cohort Grou p s in Southeastern Pasco Count y : 1980-2000 Age in 1980 Growth Rate 1980 to 1990Age in 1990 Growth Rate 1990 to 2000Age in 2000 Growth Rate 1980 to 2000 Zero to 4 years69.9%10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years43.6%15 to 19 years Zero to 4 y ear s 51.4%10 to 14 years4.3%20 to 24 years57.9% 5 to 9 years52.6%15 to 19 years included below 25 to 29 years included below 10 to 14 years14.6%20 to 24 years70.6%25 to 34 years125.4% 15 to 19 years included below 25 to 29 years included below 35 to 39 years included below 20 to 24 years50.6%25 to 34 years77.4%35 to 44 years167.1% 25 to 34 years61.6%35 to 44 years60.9%45 to 54 years160.0% 35 to 44 years66.1%45 to 54 years97.1%55 to 64 years227.3% 45 to 54 years139.9%55 to 64 years72.2%65 to 74 years313.1% 55 to 64 years119.3%65 to 74 years included below 75 and older-33.9% 65 to 74 years included below 75 and older-41.7% 75 and older-32.1%

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64 The cohort method attempts a quantitative measure of the net change in population over time and, as applied to the over 75 age range, to answer the question, “Are more retirees moving into the southeast Pasco area?” The result of the cohort measure is an unambiguous “no”. As the population between 65 and 74 aged over the ten years, that population did not become the entire over 75 population, but merely a part. Assuming no out-migration of the 1980 population, those persons already over 75 in 1980 will remain in the over 75 group in 1990, unless they have died during the decade. Thus in 1990 the over 75 population is the combination of two 1980 cohorts: the 65 to 74 cohort and the over 75 cohort. In 2000, the over 75 cohort is the combination of three 1980 cohorts: the 55 to 64 cohort, the 65 to 74 cohort, and the over 75 cohort. The 33.9% decrease in population for the over 75 cohort from 1980 to 2000 measures that population group’s reduction as a net result of death, out-migration and in-migration. CEDR found that, during the twenty years from 1980 to 2000, the over 75 population did not grow. Rather, other cohorts, namely the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 cohorts, have been folded into it. If new retirees were moving into the area in sufficient numbers, they would counteract the loss of population through death and out-migration, and the total population would remain steady. Thus, it is safe to conclude that southeast Pasco has ceased to be primarily a destination for retirees. This finding raises the question, “What age group fuels current southeast Pasco population growth?” The answer is that all other age cohorts have posted positive gains throughout the twenty years, indicating that younger population age groups are migrating to the area. The 1980 45 to 54 agecohort grew most rapidly over the twenty years. But an examination by decade shows that, during the period, the age of the population influx shifts. In the 1980s, the 45 to 54 and the 55 to 64 cohorts dominated growth. However from 1990 to 2000, growth is spread throughout the 2555 year old cohorts, indicating the influx during the past decade tends to be families with children under 21, as the cohorts of young children posted high gains. d) The typical resident of southeast Pasco has changed over the past twenty years. One may reject the hypothesis that population growth is a result of retirees and the elderly. Instead, families and working-age people have moved into the area in considerable numbers. Resulting population growth has diversified the population by age. The future population distribution in southeast Pasco will look much more like the national average, if recent population trends continue. Southeast Pasco’s population will resemble more closely the suburban neighborhoods in north Hillsborough County.

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65 6. Demographic Projections a) Population growth in a region depends on land availability, regulation and zoning, economic growth and opportunity, and employment and other amenities. As these factors change slowly over time, the analyst generally can base population projections on historical rates. Although growth factors can change in the future and affect population growth, population growth usually reflects past rates. b) In order to test the implications of population growth for Zephyrhills, CEDR calculates population projections for the city of Zephyrhills and southeast Pasco County using three possible average annual rates of growth. CEDR uses 1.2% as its low estimate. The U.S. rate is about 1.2%. CEDR uses 2.1% as the mid-range forecast. Florida’s growth rate has been about 2.1%. CEDR uses 3.6% as the high rate. Southeast Pasco has grown at about 3.6% during the past decade. Projected population growth to 2010 is bracketed by 1,425 at the low end and by 4,637 at the high end. These bounds project the year-round population between 12,258 and 15,470 in 2010. By 2020, the population for the city of Zephyrhills is expected to lie between 13,870 and 22,091. The southeast Pasco County area is projected to increase population by between 7,843 and 25,523 by 2010, resulting in a year-round population between 67,474 and 85,154. By 2020, CEDR projects southeast Pasco County’s population to be between 76,349 and 121,601. i. Actual population projections and the growth rates assumed in these calculations are displayed in Table 11 Exhibit 6 “Projected Population Growth 2000 to 2020”, reports estimated growth in Zephyrhills and surrounding communities. Table 11 – Population Projections Growth Rate: 1.2% Growth Rate: 2.1% Growth Rate: 3.6% Population Projected to: 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 Zephyrhills City 12,258 13,870 13,382 16,531 15,470 22,091 Southeast Pasco 67,474 76,349 73,663 90,997 85,154 121,601

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67 ii. Population increase in an area is accompanied by increased spending on goods and services. This spending may be captured locally. Alternatively, if the desired goods and services are not available locally residents will spend outside of the community. RECOMMENDATION: Zephyrhills Main Street should plan for future population growth and the associated increases in spending by attracting businesses that will capture this market. This strategy will increase the local tax base, add convenience for local residents, utilize existing land and buildings, and benefit local merchants. In order to plan accordingly, it is important to determine the current expected levels of spending and estimated sales by category. D. Projected Spending, Sales, and the Sales Gap. RECOMMENDATION: Main Street Zephyrhills has long maintained a connection with customers in its immediate neighborhood. Main Street Zephyrhills should cooperate with the chamber of commerce and the city of Zephyrhills to identify potential customers in the growing residential areas near the city, identify the market opportunities presented by these new households and actively target marketing towards them. 1. Expected Spending a) CEDR computed a series of measures referred to as “expected spending” to measure sales demand within a given area and to serve as proxies for local purchasing power. Expected spending in Zephyrhills indicates how much money the average household can spend on goods and services and how it allocates its spending. i. Spending information can be compared to existing sales in the area. CEDR employs existing sales as a measure of local supply. Combining the two measures, supply and demand, allows us to determine the local share of the retail and service markets as well as the potential for new businesses located in Zephyrhills and on Main Street Zephyrhills. b) Expected spending is determined using comprehensive statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), an agency of the U.S. Department of Labor. The BLS household survey is used to compute statistics on the dollar amounts spent on various categories of consumer goods and to determine household characteristics, such as income and age, that influence spending. CEDR uses for this analysis the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) tables for the Southern region. The tables are combined with estimates of pre-tax household income to determine expected total spending by the households in the two Main Street market area classifications used in this study.

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68 i. CES data provide the typical amount a household in a given income range will spend on goods and services. Individual household spending, reported by a pre-defined category in each year is multiplied by the number of households in each income range to yield aggregate expected spending by income range. The data for every household income level are then summed to a final aggregate amount. The resulting figures are forecasts of total expected household spending on goods and services in Zephyrhills. ii. It is important to note that in arriving at a final figure, spending is attributed to households by the location of their residence. This analysis then refers to expected spending in the geographic location around Main Street which is based on residential households. If, for example, a local household consists of two parents working in Tampa, but living in Zephyrhills, their spending is included in a calculation of expected spending for the Zephyrhills area. If, as is likely, some portion of their spending occurs in the proximity of their workplaces, their actual spending will fall short of CEDR’s expected spending forecasts. iii. Spending can also leak out of a community if a good is not sold locally or if local residents have access to a more competitive business within a reasonable distance. As a result, it should not be assumed that local businesses, no matter how competitive, will capture all of the expected spending. c) The following six tables detail the expected aggregate annual spending for households in the Zephyrhills area. There are two sets of tables: one set is classified by CES categories ( Tables 13, 14 and 15 ), which are defined in Exhibit 9 Table A1, the other is classified by CEDR-defined categories, which are based on Standard Industrial Codes (SIC) ( Tables 16, 17 and 18 ) and used to match against estimated sales in a later section. The CEDRdefined categories are shown in Table 12 Each set then contains three tables: one for expected spending by year-round residents (those households which the Census defined as occupied in the 2000 Census); one for expected spending by seasonal residents; and a final table totaling the year-round and seasonal components of spending. i. Tables 13, 14, and 15 report expected spending by year-round residents, seasonal residents, and the sum of year-round and seasonal residents by spending categories used in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Tables 16, 17, and 18 summarize consumer spending by year-round, seasonal, and the sum of year-round and seasonal residents.

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69 Table 13 Consumer Expenditure Survey ItemHalf MileOne MileTwo MileFour MilesTen Miles Food (at and away from home)$ 13,079,671$ 34,428,055$ 52,522,837$ 94,883,369$ 130,544,857 Food at home,alcohol,housekeeping supplies,drugs&tobacco products$ 12,221,428$ 32,355,733$ 49,218,198$ 88,372,496$ 120,652,432 Food at home$ 7,856,719$ 20,826,456$ 31,686,622$ 56,827,317$ 77,491,677 Alcoholic beverages$ 810,052$ 2,098,692$ 3,203,977$ 5,894,805$ 8,240,029 Housekeeping supplies$ 1,304,677$ 3,409,357$ 5,197,910$ 9,467,550$ 13,113,176 Laundry and cleaning supplies$ 360,481$ 955,342$ 1,456,146$ 2,612,154$ 3,559,745 Other household products$ 657,849$ 1,711,409$ 2,604,237$ 4,780,060$ 6,667,598 Postage and stationery$ 285,625$ 740,552$ 1,134,596$ 2,070,271$ 2,879,318 Drugs $ 1,288,744$ 3,463,175$ 5,229,190$ 9,271,259$ 12,483,362 Tobacco products and smoking supplies$ 961,236$ 2,558,053$ 3,900,499$ 6,911,565$ 9,324,188 Food away from home$ 5,223,284$ 13,602,232$ 20,837,198$ 38,058,672$ 53,057,655 Housing$ 27,635,835$ 72,457,754$ 110,345,136$ 200,592,070$ 278,335,947 Shelter$ 14,459,793$ 37,915,565$ 57,740,229$ 105,030,267$ 146,001,612 Utilities, fuels, and public services$ 6,729,457$ 17,852,789$ 27,112,230$ 48,593,520$ 66,329,252 Household operations$ 1,516,363$ 3,893,586$ 5,939,065$ 11,071,637$ 15,805,991 Personal services$ 725,101$ 1,842,525$ 2,815,388$ 5,282,510$ 7,528,547 Other household expenses$ 791,507$ 2,051,705$ 3,124,626$ 5,790,869$ 8,279,656 Household furnishings and equipment$ 3,625,518$ 9,386,309$ 14,355,614$ 26,428,176$ 37,084,287 Household textiles$ 267,414$ 704,618$ 1,074,226$ 1,953,558$ 2,702,663 Furniture$ 916,734$ 2,374,155$ 3,614,579$ 6,691,137$ 9,400,915 Floor coverings$ 103,749$ 267,402$ 411,831$ 755,373$ 1,079,829 Major appliances$ 479,038$ 1,245,848$ 1,907,666$ 3,468,032$ 4,811,049 Small appliances, miscellaneous housewares$ 238,147$ 603,614$ 926,680$ 1,725,108$ 2,428,716 Miscellaneous household equipment$ 1,620,548$ 4,191,130$ 6,421,395$ 11,836,570$ 16,663,280 Apparel and services$ 4,482,326$ 11,759,693$ 17,923,186$ 32,638,158$ 45,328,432 Men and boys$ 1,000,161$ 2,616,452$ 3,994,840$ 7,302,216$ 10,187,403 Women and girls$ 1,704,679$ 4,472,171$ 6,809,337$ 12,409,407$ 17,248,240 Children under 2$ 230,279$ 606,269$ 922,261$ 1,663,365$ 2,288,994 Footwear$ 953,479$ 2,526,825$ 3,853,057$ 6,925,198$ 9,433,843 Other apparel products and services$ 593,246$ 1,536,477$ 2,341,689$ 4,334,241$ 6,165,420 Transportation$ 18,902,914$ 49,164,992$ 75,286,096$ 137,185,872$ 190,795,814 Vehicle purchases (net outlay)$ 9,357,960$ 24,245,924$ 37,213,969$ 67,826,865$ 94,610,970 Gasoline and motor oil$ 3,241,551$ 8,512,088$ 12,986,174$ 23,501,409$ 32,325,109 Other vehicle expenses$ 5,631,191$ 14,673,163$ 22,435,755$ 40,935,533$ 56,842,402 Vehicle finance charges$ 999,779$ 2,577,485$ 3,952,539$ 7,282,866$ 10,175,983 Maintenance and repairs$ 1,719,041$ 4,520,181$ 6,899,432$ 12,469,974$ 17,176,066 Vehicle insurance$ 2,029,540$ 5,319,960$ 8,130,156$ 14,739,656$ 20,298,458 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, other charges$ 883,284$ 2,256,747$ 3,455,683$ 6,445,950$ 9,195,233 Public transportation$ 672,055$ 1,733,432$ 2,649,615$ 4,920,824$ 7,015,170 Transportation less vehicle finance charges and insurance$ 15,873,595$ 41,267,547$ 63,203,401$ 115,163,350$ 160,321,373 Health care…(incl drugs)…$ 5,682,341$ 15,042,257$ 22,861,709$ 41,068,121$ 56,174,647 Health insurance$ 2,736,024$ 7,250,471$ 11,029,311$ 19,757,995$ 26,955,533 Medical services$ 1,402,443$ 3,658,003$ 5,575,040$ 10,187,375$ 14,181,657 Medical supplies$ 254,428$ 668,186$ 1,024,997$ 1,846,176$ 2,548,071 Health Care Less Drugs$ 4,393,597$ 11,579,082$ 17,632,519$ 31,796,862$ 43,691,285 Entertainment$ 4,207,675$ 10,904,700$ 16,644,457$ 30,628,517$ 43,111,531 Fees and admissions$ 927,443$ 2,373,250$ 3,635,595$ 6,795,433$ 9,802,957 Television, radios, sound equipment$ 1,587,940$ 4,178,114$ 6,368,818$ 11,510,661$ 15,837,592 Pets, toys, and playground equipment$ 827,974$ 2,152,127$ 3,286,314$ 6,035,569$ 8,461,864 Other entertainment supplies, equipment,and services$ 863,126$ 2,197,962$ 3,348,595$ 6,278,074$ 8,997,713 Personal care products and services$ 1,485,244$ 3,901,661$ 5,957,160$ 10,773,183$ 14,864,677 Reading $ 309,333$ 809,605$ 1,233,977$ 2,255,583$ 3,145,952 Education$ 1,019,730$ 2,647,925$ 4,011,164$ 7,424,218$ 10,557,989 Ex p ected S p endin g b y Year Round Residents

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70 Table 14 Consumer Expenditure Survey ItemHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles Food (at and away from home)$ 311,801$ 1,634,388$ 2,754,817$ 4,352,370$ 4,747,262 Food-home,alcohol,housekpg suppl.,drugs&tobacco prod.$ 286,397$ 1,501,225$ 2,530,367$ 3,997,759$ 4,360,476 Food at home$ 183,264$ 960,625$ 1,619,167$ 2,558,142$ 2,790,243 Alcoholic beverages$ 19,969$ 104,675$ 176,433$ 278,749$ 304,040 Housekeeping supplies$ 31,534$ 165,294$ 278,608$ 440,177$ 480,114 Laundry and cleaning supplies$ 8,278$ 43,394$ 73,142$ 115,557$ 126,042 Other household products$ 16,367$ 85,794$ 144,608$ 228,469$ 249,198 Postage and stationery$ 6,888$ 36,106$ 60,858$ 96,151$ 104,875 Drugs$ 30,144$ 158,006$ 266,325$ 420,770$ 458,947 Tobacco products and smoking supplies$ 21,486$ 112,625$ 189,833$ 299,920$ 327,132 Food away from home$ 128,601$ 674,094$ 1,136,208$ 1,795,110$ 1,957,981 Housing$ 692,864$ 3,631,825$ 6,121,567$ 9,671,542$ 10,549,043 Shelter$ 367,223$ 1,924,894$ 3,244,475$ 5,125,988$ 5,591,070 Utilities, fuels, and public services$ 160,135$ 839,388$ 1,414,817$ 2,235,287$ 2,438,095 Household operations$ 42,214$ 221,275$ 372,967$ 589,255$ 642,718 Personal services$ 19,211$ 100,700$ 169,733$ 268,164$ 292,494 Other household expenses$ 23,003$ 120,575$ 203,233$ 321,091$ 350,224 Household furnishings and equipment$ 91,822$ 481,306$ 811,258$ 1,281,718$ 1,398,008 Household textiles$ 6,383$ 33,456$ 56,392$ 89,094$ 97,177 Furniture$ 23,508$ 123,225$ 207,700$ 328,148$ 357,921 Floor coverings$ 2,907$ 15,238$ 25,683$ 40,577$ 44,259 Major appliances$ 11,754$ 61,613$ 103,850$ 164,074$ 178,960 Small appliances, miscellaneous housewares$ 5,624$ 29,481$ 49,692$ 78,509$ 85,632 Miscellaneous household equipment$ 41,708$ 218,625$ 368,500$ 582,198$ 635,021 Apparel and services$ 111,981$ 586,975$ 989,367$ 1,563,113$ 1,704,935 Men and boys$ 25,341$ 132,831$ 223,892$ 353,729$ 385,823 Women and girls$ 43,099$ 225,913$ 380,783$ 601,605$ 656,188 Children under 2$ 5,624$ 29,481$ 49,692$ 78,509$ 85,632 Footwear$ 21,297$ 111,631$ 188,158$ 297,274$ 324,245 Other apparel products and services$ 16,683$ 87,450$ 147,400$ 232,879$ 254,008 Transportation$ 461,256$ 2,417,794$ 4,075,275$ 6,438,580$ 7,022,753 Vehicle purchases (net outlay)$ 230,028$ 1,205,750$ 2,032,333$ 3,210,910$ 3,502,236 Gasoline and motor oil$ 76,213$ 399,488$ 673,350$ 1,063,834$ 1,160,356 Other vehicle expenses$ 136,247$ 714,175$ 1,203,767$ 1,901,847$ 2,074,401 Vehicle finance charges$ 23,888$ 125,213$ 211,050$ 333,441$ 363,694 Maintenance and repairs$ 40,887$ 214,319$ 361,242$ 570,730$ 622,513 Vehicle insurance$ 47,522$ 249,100$ 419,867$ 663,353$ 723,539 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, other charges$ 23,951$ 125,544$ 211,608$ 334,323$ 364,656 Public transportation$ 18,769$ 98,381$ 165,825$ 261,989$ 285,759 Transportation less vehicle finance charges and insurance$ 389,847$ 2,043,481$ 3,444,358$ 5,441,786$ 5,935,520 Health care…(incl drugs)…$ 135,489$ 710,200$ 1,197,067$ 1,891,261$ 2,062,856 Health insurance$ 63,890$ 334,894$ 564,475$ 891,821$ 972,736 Medical services$ 35,326$ 185,169$ 312,108$ 493,104$ 537,843 Medical supplies$ 6,193$ 32,463$ 54,717$ 86,448$ 94,291 Health Care Less Drugs$ 105,345$ 552,194$ 930,742$ 1,470,491$ 1,603,909 Entertainment$ 110,211$ 577,700$ 973,733$ 1,538,414$ 1,677,994 Fees and admissions$ 27,047$ 141,775$ 238,967$ 377,547$ 411,801 Television, radios, sound equipment$ 37,980$ 199,081$ 335,558$ 530,153$ 578,254 Pets, toys, and playground equipment$ 21,423$ 112,294$ 189,275$ 299,038$ 326,170 Other entertainment supplies, equipment,and services$ 23,761$ 124,550$ 209,933$ 331,676$ 361,769 Personal care products and services$ 36,021$ 188,813$ 318,250$ 502,807$ 548,427 Reading$ 7,836$ 41,075$ 69,233$ 109,383$ 119,307 Education$ 29,891$ 156,681$ 264,092$ 417,242$ 455,098 Expected Spending by Seasonal Residents

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71 Table 15 Consumer Expenditure Survey ItemHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles Food (at and away from home)$ 13,391,472$ 36,062,443$ 55,277,654$ 99,235,740$ 135,292,119 Food-home,alcohol,housekpg suppl.,drugs&tobacco prod.$ 12,507,825$ 33,856,958$ 51,748,565$ 92,370,255$ 125,012,908 Food at home$ 8,039,983$ 21,787,081$ 33,305,789$ 59,385,459$ 80,281,920 Alcoholic beverages$ 830,022$ 2,203,367$ 3,380,410$ 6,173,555$ 8,544,069 Housekeeping supplies$ 1,336,211$ 3,574,651$ 5,476,518$ 9,907,727$ 13,593,290 Laundry and cleaning supplies$ 368,760$ 998,736$ 1,529,287$ 2,727,712$ 3,685,787 Other household products$ 674,217$ 1,797,202$ 2,748,846$ 5,008,528$ 6,916,795 Postage and stationery$ 292,513$ 776,659$ 1,195,455$ 2,166,422$ 2,984,193 Drugs$ 1,318,888$ 3,621,181$ 5,495,515$ 9,692,029$ 12,942,309 Tobacco products and smoking supplies$ 982,722$ 2,670,678$ 4,090,333$ 7,211,485$ 9,651,320 Food away from home$ 5,351,885$ 14,276,326$ 21,973,407$ 39,853,783$ 55,015,636 Housing$ 28,328,699$ 76,089,579$ 116,466,703$ 210,263,612$ 288,884,990 Shelter$ 14,827,016$ 39,840,459$ 60,984,704$ 110,156,255$ 151,592,682 Utilities, fuels, and public services$ 6,889,592$ 18,692,177$ 28,527,047$ 50,828,807$ 68,767,347 Household operations$ 1,558,577$ 4,114,861$ 6,312,032$ 11,660,892$ 16,448,709 Personal services$ 744,312$ 1,943,225$ 2,985,121$ 5,550,674$ 7,821,041 Other household expenses$ 814,509$ 2,172,280$ 3,327,859$ 6,111,960$ 8,629,879 Household furnishings and equipment$ 3,717,339$ 9,867,616$ 15,166,872$ 27,709,893$ 38,482,295 Household textiles$ 273,796$ 738,074$ 1,130,618$ 2,042,651$ 2,799,840 Furniture$ 940,242$ 2,497,380$ 3,822,279$ 7,019,285$ 9,758,836 Floor coverings$ 106,656$ 282,639$ 437,514$ 795,950$ 1,124,088 Major appliances$ 490,792$ 1,307,461$ 2,011,516$ 3,632,106$ 4,990,010 Small appliances, miscellaneous housewares$ 243,771$ 633,095$ 976,371$ 1,803,616$ 2,514,347 Miscellaneous household equipment$ 1,662,257$ 4,409,755$ 6,789,895$ 12,418,767$ 17,298,301 Apparel and services$ 4,594,306$ 12,346,668$ 18,912,553$ 34,201,271$ 47,033,366 Men and boys$ 1,025,502$ 2,749,283$ 4,218,732$ 7,655,945$ 10,573,227 Women and girls$ 1,747,778$ 4,698,084$ 7,190,120$ 13,011,011$ 17,904,428 Children under 2$ 235,903$ 635,751$ 971,953$ 1,741,873$ 2,374,626 Footwear$ 974,776$ 2,638,457$ 4,041,215$ 7,222,471$ 9,758,088 Other apparel products and services$ 609,930$ 1,623,927$ 2,489,089$ 4,567,120$ 6,419,429 Transportation$ 19,364,171$ 51,582,786$ 79,361,371$ 143,624,451$ 197,818,568 Vehicle purchases (net outlay)$ 9,587,988$ 25,451,674$ 39,246,302$ 71,037,775$ 98,113,206 Gasoline and motor oil$ 3,317,763$ 8,911,575$ 13,659,524$ 24,565,243$ 33,485,465 Other vehicle expenses$ 5,767,439$ 15,387,338$ 23,639,522$ 42,837,380$ 58,916,804 Vehicle finance charges$ 1,023,666$ 2,702,698$ 4,163,589$ 7,616,306$ 10,539,677 Maintenance and repairs$ 1,759,927$ 4,734,500$ 7,260,673$ 13,040,704$ 17,798,579 Vehicle insurance$ 2,077,062$ 5,569,060$ 8,550,022$ 15,403,009$ 21,021,996 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, other charges$ 907,235$ 2,382,290$ 3,667,291$ 6,780,273$ 9,559,889 Public transportation$ 690,824$ 1,831,814$ 2,815,440$ 5,182,813$ 7,300,929 Transportation less vehicle fin. charges and insurance$ 16,263,442$ 43,311,028$ 66,647,759$ 120,605,136$ 166,256,894 Health care…(incl drugs)…$ 5,817,830$ 15,752,457$ 24,058,776$ 42,959,382$ 58,237,503 Health insurance$ 2,799,914$ 7,585,365$ 11,593,786$ 20,649,816$ 27,928,270 Medical services$ 1,437,768$ 3,843,172$ 5,887,148$ 10,680,479$ 14,719,500 Medical supplies$ 260,621$ 700,648$ 1,079,713$ 1,932,624$ 2,642,362 Health Care Less Drugs$ 4,498,942$ 12,131,276$ 18,563,261$ 33,267,352$ 45,295,194 Entertainment$ 4,317,886$ 11,482,400$ 17,618,190$ 32,166,931$ 44,789,525 Fees and admissions$ 954,490$ 2,515,025$ 3,874,562$ 7,172,980$ 10,214,758 Television, radios, sound equipment$ 1,625,920$ 4,377,196$ 6,704,376$ 12,040,814$ 16,415,846 Pets, toys, and playground equipment$ 849,397$ 2,264,420$ 3,475,589$ 6,334,607$ 8,788,034 Other entertainment supplies, equipment,and services$ 886,887$ 2,322,512$ 3,558,528$ 6,609,751$ 9,359,482 Personal care products and services$ 1,521,264$ 4,090,474$ 6,275,410$ 11,275,990$ 15,413,104 Reading$ 317,169$ 850,680$ 1,303,211$ 2,364,966$ 3,265,259 Education$ 1,049,621$ 2,804,607$ 4,275,256$ 7,841,460$ 11,013,088 Expected Total Spending by Year Round and Seasonal Residents

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72 Exhibit 9 SIC Codes included in CES Expenditure Categories # Category Standard Industry Classification Code Description/Examples 1 FOOD Major Group 54: Food Stores (5411 through 5499) Grocery Stores, Meat and Fish (Seafood) Markets, Including Freezer Provisioners, Fruit and Vegetable Markets, Candy, Nut and Confectionery Stores, Dairy Products Stores, Retail Bakeries, and Miscellaneous Food Stores, e.g. coffee stores, health food stores, vitamin food stores, etc. Major Group 58: Eating and Drinking Places (5812 & 5813) Eating Places and Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 2 Food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs and tobacco products 4311 United States Postal Service – all establishments 5261 Retail Nurseries, Lawn and Garden Supply Stores 5399 Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores, e.g. country general stores, general merchandise stores, general stores, and catalog showrooms, general merchandise: except mail order – retail Major Group 54: Food Stores (5411 through 5499) Grocery Stores, Meat and Fish (Seafood) Markets, Including Freezer Provisioners, Fruit and Vegetable Markets, Candy, Nut and Confectionery Stores, Dairy Products Stores, Retail Bakeries, and Miscellaneous Food Stores, e.g. coffee stores, health food stores, vitamin food stores, etc. 5912 Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores, e.g. apothecaries, drug stores, pharmacies, and proprietary (nonprescription medicine) stores 5921 Liquor Stores, e.g. beer, wine and liquor packaged 5943 Stationery Stores, e.g. pen and pencil shops, school supplies, stationery stores, and writing supplies 5947 Gift, novelty and souvenir shops 5963 – 50% only Direct selling establishments 5993 Tobacco stores and stands, e.g. cigar stores and stands, tobacco stores, and tobacconists – retail 3 Food Away from Home Major Group 58: Eating and Drinking Places (5812 & 5813) Eating Places and Drinking Places (Alcoholic Bev erages) 6 Utilities, Fuels and public services Major Group 48: Communications, except 4832, 4833 and 4899 Radiotelephone communications telephone communications, telegraph and other message communications, cable and other pay television services 4911 Electric Services 4923 Natural gas transmission and distribution 4924 Natural gas distribution 4925 Mixed, manufactured, or liquefied petroleum gas production and/or distribution 4931 Electric and other services combined 4932 Gas and other services combined 4939 Combination utilities, not elsewhere classified 4941 Water supply 4952 Sewerage systems 4953 Refuse systems 5983 Fuel Oil dealers 5984 Liquefied petroleum gas (bottled gas) dealers 5989 Fuel dealers, not elsewhere classified 7 Household operations 0781 Landscape counseling and planning 0782 Lawn and garden services 0783 Ornamental shrub and tree services 4214 Local trucking with storage 4226 Special warehousing and storage, not elsewhere classified 7213 Linen supply 7215 Coin-operated laundries and drycleaning 7216 Drycleaning plants, except rug cleaning 7217 Carpet and Upholstery cleaning 7342 Disinfecting and pest control services 7641 Reupholstery and furniture repair 8811 Private households, e.g. babysitting, domestic services, estates, farm homes, households employing cooks, maids, chauffeurs, gardeners, etc., personal affairs management, and residential farms 9 Household Textiles and Small appliances/ miscellaneous housewares 5331 Variety Stores 5714 Drapery, curtain and upholstery stores 5719 Miscellaneous homefurnishings stores, e.g. aluminumware stores, bedding, brooms, brushes, china stores, cookware, crockery stores, cutlery stores, enamelware stores, fireplace screens and accessories, fireplace stores, glassware stores, houseware stores, kitchenware stores, lamp and shade shops, linen shops, metalware stores, mirrors, pottery stores, tinware stores, venetian blind shops, window shade shops, and woodburning stoves – all retail

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73 # Category Standard Industry Classification Code Description/Examples 5932 – 20% only Used merchandise stores 10 Furniture 5712 Furniture stores 5932 – 20% only Used merchandise stores 11 Floor coverings 5713 Floor covering stores 12 Major appliances and miscellaneous household equipment 5251 Hardware stores 5722 Household appliance stores 5734 Computer and computer software stores 5932 – 20% only Used merchandise stores 5948 Luggage and leather goods stores 5992 Florists 5999 – 25% only Miscellaneous retail stores, not elsewhere classified 16 Apparel and Accessories 5311 Department stores 5611 Men’s and boy’s clothing and accessory stores 5621 Women’s clothing stores 5632 Women’s accessory and specialty stores 5641 Children’s and infants’ wear stores 5651 Family clothing stores 5661 Shoe stores 5699 Miscellaneous apparel and accessory stores 5932 – 20% only Used merchandise stores 17 Other apparel products and services 5944 Jewelry stores 5949 Sewing, needlework and piece goods stores 7212 Garment pressing, and agents for laundries and drycleaners 7219 Laundry and garment services, not elsewhere classified 7251 Shoe repair shops and shoeshine parlors 7299 Miscellaneous personal services, not elsewhere classified 7631 Watch, clock and jewelry repair 19 Vehicle purchases (net outlay) 5511 Motor vehicle dealers (new and used) 5521 Motor vehicle dealers (used only) 5561 Recreational vehicle dealers 5571 Motorcycle dealers 5599 Automotive Dealers, Not elsewhere classified 20 Gasoline and motor oil 5541 Gasoline service stations 22 Maintenance and repairs 5531 Auto and home supply stores, e.g. automobile accessory dealers, automobile air-conditioning equipment, automobile parts dealers, battery dealers, speed shops, tire dealers, and tire, battery and accessory dealers – all retail 7532 Top, body and upholstery repair shops and paint shops (under automotive repair shops) 7533 Automotive exhaust system repair shops 7534 Tire retreading and repair shops 23 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses and other charges 7513 Truck rental and leasing, without drivers 7514 Passenger car rental 7515 Passenger car leasing 7521 Automobile parking 24 Public Transportation 4111 Local and suburban transit 4121 Taxicabs 4131 Intercity and rural bus transportation 4141 Local bus charter service 4142 Bus charter service, except local 4151 School buses 27 Health Insurance 6321 Accident and health insurance 6324 Hospital and medical service plans 28 Medical services Major Group 80: Health Services Offices and clinics of doctors of: medicine, dentists, doctors of osteopath y, chiropractors, optometrists, podiatrists, and health practitioners, not elsewhere classified; skilled nursing care facilities, intermediate care facilities, nursing and personal care facilities, not elsewhere classified, general medical and surgical hospitals, psychiatric hospitals, specialty hospitals, except psychiatric, medical laboratories, dental laboratories, home health care services, kidney dialysis centers, specialty outpatient facilities, not elsewhere classified, and health and allied services, not elsewhere classified 29 Medical supplies 5995 Optical goods stores

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74 # Category Standard Industry Classification Code Description/Examples 5999 – 25% only Miscellaneous retail stores, not elsewhere classified 7352 Medical equipment rental and leasing 7629 Electrical and electronic repair shops, not elsewhere classified 7699 Repair shops and related services, not elsewhere classified 32 Fees & Admissions and other entertainment equipment and services 5551 Boat delaers 5941 Sporting goods stores and bicycle shops 5946 Camera and photographic supply stores 5963 – 50% only Direct selling establishments 7221 Photographic studios, portrait 7335 Commercial photography 7384 Photofinishing laboratories 7832 Motion picture theaters, except drive-in 7833 Drive-in motion picture theaters 7841 Video tape rental Major group 79: Amusement and recreation services Dance studios, schools and halls; theatrical producers and miscellaneous th eatrical services; bands orchestras, actors and other entertainers and entertainment groups; bowling centers; professional sports clubs and promoters; racing, including track operation; physical fitness facilities; public golf courses; coin-operated amusement devices; amusement parks; membership sports and recreation clubs; and amusement and recreations services, not elsewhere classified 33 Television, radio and sound equipment 5731 Radio, television and consumer electronics 5735 Record and prerecorded tape stores 5736 Musical Instrument Stores 7359 Equipment rental and leasing, not elsewhere classified 7622 Radio and television repair shops 34 Pets, toys, and playground equipment 0742 Veterinary services for animal specialties, e.g. animal hospitals for pets and oth er animal specialties, pet hospitals, veterinarians for pets and other animal specialties, veterinary services for pets and other animal specialties 0752 Animal specialty services, except veterinary, e.g. animal shelters, boarding horses, boarding kennels, breeding of animals, dog grooming, dog pounds, etc. 5945 Hobby, toy and game shops 5999 – 25% only Miscellaneous retail stores, not elsewhere classified 36 Personal care products and services 5999 – 25% only Miscellaneous retail stores, not elsewhere classified 7231 Beauty shops 7241 Barber shops 37 Reading 5932 – 20% only Used merchandise stores 5942 Book stores 5961 Catalog and mail-order houses 5994 News dealers and newsstands

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75 Table 16 CEDR-defined CategoryHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles 1$ 13,079,671$ 34,428,055$ 52,522,837$ 94,883,369$ 130,544,857 2$ 12,221,428$ 32,355,733$ 49,218,198$ 88,372,496$ 120,652,432 3$ 5,223,284$ 13,602,232$ 20,837,198$ 38,058,672$ 53,057,655 4$ 27,635,835$ 72,457,754$ 110,345,136$ 200,592,070$ 278,335,947 5$ 14,459,793$ 37,915,565$ 57,740,229$ 105,030,267$ 146,001,612 6$ 6,729,457$ 17,852,789$ 27,112,230$ 48,593,520$ 66,329,252 7$ 1,516,363$ 3,893,586$ 5,939,065$ 11,071,637$ 15,805,991 8$ 3,625,518$ 9,386,309$ 14,355,614$ 26,428,176$ 37,084,287 9$ 505,561$ 1,308,232$ 2,000,906$ 3,678,665$ 5,131,378 10$ 916,734$ 2,374,155$ 3,614,579$ 6,691,137$ 9,400,915 11$ 103,749$ 267,402$ 411,831$ 755,373$ 1,079,829 12$ 2,099,586$ 5,436,978$ 8,329,060$ 15,304,602$ 21,474,329 15$ 4,482,326$ 11,759,693$ 17,923,186$ 32,638,158$ 45,328,432 16$ 3,888,599$ 10,221,718$ 15,579,494$ 28,300,185$ 39,158,480 17$ 593,246$ 1,536,477$ 2,341,689$ 4,334,241$ 6,165,420 18$ 18,902,914$ 49,164,992$ 75,286,096$ 137,185,872$ 190,795,814 19$ 9,357,960$ 24,245,924$ 37,213,969$ 67,826,865$ 94,610,970 20$ 3,241,551$ 8,512,088$ 12,986,174$ 23,501,409$ 32,325,109 21$ 5,631,191$ 14,673,163$ 22,435,755$ 40,935,533$ 56,842,402 22$ 1,719,041$ 4,520,181$ 6,899,432$ 12,469,974$ 17,176,066 23$ 883,284$ 2,256,747$ 3,455,683$ 6,445,950$ 9,195,233 24$ 672,055$ 1,733,432$ 2,649,615$ 4,920,824$ 7,015,170 25$ 15,873,595$ 41,267,547$ 63,203,401$ 115,163,350$ 160,321,373 26$ 5,682,341$ 15,042,257$ 22,861,709$ 41,068,121$ 56,174,647 27$ 2,736,024$ 7,250,471$ 11,029,311$ 19,757,995$ 26,955,533 28$ 1,402,443$ 3,658,003$ 5,575,040$ 10,187,375$ 14,181,657 29$ 254,428$ 668,186$ 1,024,997$ 1,846,176$ 2,548,071 30$ 4,393,597$ 11,579,082$ 17,632,519$ 31,796,862$ 43,691,285 31$ 4,207,675$ 10,904,700$ 16,644,457$ 30,628,517$ 43,111,531 32$ 1,790,569$ 4,571,212$ 6,984,190$ 13,073,508$ 18,800,669 33$ 1,587,940$ 4,178,114$ 6,368,818$ 11,510,661$ 15,837,592 34$ 827,974$ 2,152,127$ 3,286,314$ 6,035,569$ 8,461,864 36$ 1,485,244$ 3,901,661$ 5,957,160$ 10,773,183$ 14,864,677 37$ 309,333$ 809,605$ 1,233,977$ 2,255,583$ 3,145,952 Not included in a category$ 19,091,040$ 50,202,636$ 76,447,051$ 138,355,101$ 190,599,725 Expected Spending by Year Round Residents

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76 Table 17 CEDR-defined CategoryHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles 1$ 311,801$ 1,634,388$ 2,754,817$ 4,352,370$ 4,747,262 2$ 286,397$ 1,501,225$ 2,530,367$ 3,997,759$ 4,360,476 3$ 128,601$ 674,094$ 1,136,208$ 1,795,110$ 1,957,981 4$ 692,864$ 3,631,825$ 6,121,567$ 9,671,542$ 10,549,043 5$ 367,223$ 1,924,894$ 3,244,475$ 5,125,988$ 5,591,070 6$ 160,135$ 839,388$ 1,414,817$ 2,235,287$ 2,438,095 7$ 42,214$ 221,275$ 372,967$ 589,255$ 642,718 8$ 91,822$ 481,306$ 811,258$ 1,281,718$ 1,398,008 9$ 12,007$ 62,938$ 106,083$ 167,602$ 182,809 10$ 23,508$ 123,225$ 207,700$ 328,148$ 357,921 11$ 2,907$ 15,238$ 25,683$ 40,577$ 44,259 12$ 53,463$ 280,238$ 472,350$ 746,272$ 813,981 15$ 111,981$ 586,975$ 989,367$ 1,563,113$ 1,704,935 16$ 95,360$ 499,856$ 842,525$ 1,331,116$ 1,451,889 17$ 16,683$ 87,450$ 147,400$ 232,879$ 254,008 18$ 461,256$ 2,417,794$ 4,075,275$ 6,438,580$ 7,022,753 19$ 230,028$ 1,205,750$ 2,032,333$ 3,210,910$ 3,502,236 20$ 76,213$ 399,488$ 673,350$ 1,063,834$ 1,160,356 21$ 136,247$ 714,175$ 1,203,767$ 1,901,847$ 2,074,401 22$ 40,887$ 214,319$ 361,242$ 570,730$ 622,513 23$ 23,951$ 125,544$ 211,608$ 334,323$ 364,656 24$ 18,769$ 98,381$ 165,825$ 261,989$ 285,759 25$ 389,847$ 2,043,481$ 3,444,358$ 5,441,786$ 5,935,520 26$ 135,489$ 710,200$ 1,197,067$ 1,891,261$ 2,062,856 27$ 63,890$ 334,894$ 564,475$ 891,821$ 972,736 28$ 35,326$ 185,169$ 312,108$ 493,104$ 537,843 29$ 6,193$ 32,463$ 54,717$ 86,448$ 94,291 30$ 105,345$ 552,194$ 930,742$ 1,470,491$ 1,603,909 31$ 110,211$ 577,700$ 973,733$ 1,538,414$ 1,677,994 32$ 50,808$ 266,325$ 448,900$ 709,223$ 773,571 33$ 37,980$ 199,081$ 335,558$ 530,153$ 578,254 34$ 21,423$ 112,294$ 189,275$ 299,038$ 326,170 36$ 36,021$ 188,813$ 318,250$ 502,807$ 548,427 37$ 7,836$ 41,075$ 69,233$ 109,383$ 119,307 Not included in a category$ 461,446$ 2,418,788$ 4,076,950$ 6,441,226$ 7,025,640 Expected Spending by Seasonal Residents

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77 Table 18 CEDR-defined CategoryHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles 1$ 13,391,472$ 36,062,443$ 55,277,654$ 99,235,740$ 135,292,119 2$ 12,507,825$ 33,856,958$ 51,748,565$ 92,370,255$ 125,012,908 3$ 5,351,885$ 14,276,326$ 21,973,407$ 39,853,783$ 55,015,636 4$ 28,328,699$ 76,089,579$ 116,466,703$ 210,263,612$ 288,884,990 5$ 14,827,016$ 39,840,459$ 60,984,704$ 110,156,255$ 151,592,682 6$ 6,889,592$ 18,692,177$ 28,527,047$ 50,828,807$ 68,767,347 7$ 1,558,577$ 4,114,861$ 6,312,032$ 11,660,892$ 16,448,709 8$ 3,717,339$ 9,867,616$ 15,166,872$ 27,709,893$ 38,482,295 9$ 517,567$ 1,371,170$ 2,106,989$ 3,846,268$ 5,314,188 10$ 940,242$ 2,497,380$ 3,822,279$ 7,019,285$ 9,758,836 11$ 106,656$ 282,639$ 437,514$ 795,950$ 1,124,088 12$ 2,153,049$ 5,717,216$ 8,801,410$ 16,050,874$ 22,288,310 15$ 4,594,306$ 12,346,668$ 18,912,553$ 34,201,271$ 47,033,366 16$ 3,983,959$ 10,721,574$ 16,422,019$ 29,631,301$ 40,610,369 17$ 609,930$ 1,623,927$ 2,489,089$ 4,567,120$ 6,419,429 18$ 19,364,171$ 51,582,786$ 79,361,371$ 143,624,451$ 197,818,568 19$ 9,587,988$ 25,451,674$ 39,246,302$ 71,037,775$ 98,113,206 20$ 3,317,763$ 8,911,575$ 13,659,524$ 24,565,243$ 33,485,465 21$ 5,767,439$ 15,387,338$ 23,639,522$ 42,837,380$ 58,916,804 22$ 1,759,927$ 4,734,500$ 7,260,673$ 13,040,704$ 17,798,579 23$ 907,235$ 2,382,290$ 3,667,291$ 6,780,273$ 9,559,889 24$ 690,824$ 1,831,814$ 2,815,440$ 5,182,813$ 7,300,929 25$ 16,263,442$ 43,311,028$ 66,647,759$ 120,605,136$ 166,256,894 26$ 5,817,830$ 15,752,457$ 24,058,776$ 42,959,382$ 58,237,503 27$ 2,799,914$ 7,585,365$ 11,593,786$ 20,649,816$ 27,928,270 28$ 1,437,768$ 3,843,172$ 5,887,148$ 10,680,479$ 14,719,500 29$ 260,621$ 700,648$ 1,079,713$ 1,932,624$ 2,642,362 30$ 4,498,942$ 12,131,276$ 18,563,261$ 33,267,352$ 45,295,194 31$ 4,317,886$ 11,482,400$ 17,618,190$ 32,166,931$ 44,789,525 32$ 1,841,377$ 4,837,537$ 7,433,090$ 13,782,730$ 19,574,240 33$ 1,625,920$ 4,377,196$ 6,704,376$ 12,040,814$ 16,415,846 34$ 849,397$ 2,264,420$ 3,475,589$ 6,334,607$ 8,788,034 36$ 1,521,264$ 4,090,474$ 6,275,410$ 11,275,990$ 15,413,104 37$ 317,169$ 850,680$ 1,303,211$ 2,364,966$ 3,265,259 Not included in a category$ 19,552,486$ 52,621,423$ 80,524,001$ 144,796,327$ 197,625,365 Expected Total Spending by Year Round and Seasonal Residents

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78 Table 12 – CEDR-Defined Categories CEDRDefined Cate g or y CES Items Included in Category 1Food (at and away from home) 2 Food at home; Alcoholic beverages; Housekeeping supplies; Drugs; and Tobacco p roducts and smokin g su pp lies 3Food away from home 4Housing 5Shelter 6Utilities, fuels, and public services 7Household operations, including personal services and other household expenses 8Household furnishings and equipment 9Household textiles; and small appliances, miscellaneous housewares 10Furniture 11Floor coverings 12Major appliances; and Miscellaneous household equipment 15Apparel and services 16Apparel for: Men and boys; women and girls; children under 2; and Footwear 17Other apparel products and services 18Transportation 19Vehicle purchases (net outlay) 20Gasoline and motor oil 21Other vehicle expenses N/AVehicle finance charges 22Maintenance and repairs N/AVehicle insurance 23Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, other charges 24Public transportation 25Transportation less vehicle finance charges and insurance 26Health care, including drugs 27Health insurance 28Medical services 29Medical supplies 30Health Care Less Drugs 31Entertainment 32Fees and admissions; and Other entertainment supplies, equipment, and services 33Television, radios, sound equipment 34Pets, toys, and playground equipment 36Personal care products and services 37Readin g

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79 iii. It is useful to have data at several distances since different retail and service establishments have different market sizes. Expected spending for each category is calculated at five geographic intervals. These intervals are; a half-mile, one mile, two miles, four miles and ten miles. The distance intervals indicate approximate concentric rings around Main Street Zephyrhills at the respective distances. One may expect stores on Main Street to be more likely to capture the expected spending of closer households, i.e. by those who lived within one-half mile of Main Street. The four-mile and ten-mile rings approximate the six minute and fifteen minute market areas, respectively which are described in Section V.B. Exhibit 7 shows equal distance rings at the distances of one-half mile, one mile, two miles and four miles. Exhibit 8 displays the four-mile ring including street names.

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82 d) Table 13 reports that spending by year round residents on eight major categories, food, housing, transportation, apparel, health care, entertainment, personal care, and education, within one-half mile of the center of the Main Street district totals $76 million annually. The largest expenditures are for Housing, $27 million. Expenditures on Transportation, Food, Health Care, Entertainment, Apparel, Personal Care, and Education follow in that order. i. Within a one-mile radius of Main Street, spending is 2.6 times as large as within the half-mile radius. Moving outward to a two-mile radius, spending is 4 times as large. As one moves to four-miles from Main Street, spending rises by a factor of 7.25, and at 10 miles—a distance that encompasses southeast Pasco County, spending rises by a factor of 10 over spending in a half-mile radius. The increase in spending indicates that only a small fraction of potential shoppers live within one-half mile of Main Street. It also indicates a large fraction of shopping occurs in the strip centers along the major roads traversing Zephyrhills. Main Street stores’ small percentage of all spending tends to extend to all commodities. ii. Seasonal residents account for 6.25% as much as the purchases of year round residents within one-half mile of Main Street. As the radius expands to 1 mile, the ratio expands to 12.5%. And spending by seasonal residents account for close to 14% of spending by year-round residents in a two-mile radius around Main Street. 2. Estimated Sales a) Sales are estimated for each CEDR-defined category. Sales were estimated using the InfoUSA/ReferenceUSA business database for 2000. This database contains 12 million U.S. businesses by address and it codes each business with a range of annual sales and estimated employment. The 2000 database was used in order to be consistent with the expected spending data and because it was the latest available data at the time this project was undertaken. Since some business establishments have closed and others opened since 2000, the specifics of the data may have changed. In general, we expect the data to continue to be applicable for current decisions since no major business developments have occurred. i. Estimated sales are compared with expected spending calculated above. Sales compared with spending yields a measure of the market shares businesses in the Zephyrhills area. Market shares may be estimated for Main Street and for all businesses located within each designated distance from Main Street.

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83 ii. Sales data for small areas often fail to match data on business volume. This is partly because often, businesses misreport sales. Because of errors in sales data, CEDR uses employment data by business establishment to determine estimated sales. Employment data, which is more accurately reported and can be checked by other sources, can be viewed as a stable indicator of the volume of retail sales. CEDR translates employment figures into sales by multiplying the U.S. Department of Commerce’s 1997 Census of Retail Trade “Sales per Employee” figures, adjusted for inflation, by estimated employment for businesses located in the study area. Each business is assigned a sales category according to its SIC code and the categories are summed for total estimated sales. (For more detail on the methodology of these calculations, see Exhibit 9, at the end of this section.) b) Table 13 reports that spending by year round residents on eight major categories, food, housing, transportation, apparel, health care, entertainment, personal care, and education, within one-half mile of the center of the Main Street district totals $76 million annually. The largest expenditures are for Housing, $27 million. Expenditures on transportation, food, health care, entertainment, apparel, personal care, and education follow in that order. Chart A.1 reports consumer spending by industry within the one-half mile radius. i. Within a one-mile radius of Main Street, spending is 2.6 times as large as within the half-mile radius. Moving outward to a two-mile radius, spending is 4 times as large. As one moves to four-miles from Main Street, spending rises by a factor of 7.25, and at 10 miles—a distance that encompasses southeast Pasco County, spending rises by a factor of 10 over spending in a half-mile radius. The increase in spending indicates that only a small fraction of potential shoppers live within onehalf mile of Main Street. It also indicates a large fraction of shopping occurs in the strip centers along the major roads traversing Zephyrhills. Main Street stores’ small percentage of all spending tends to extend to all commodities. Charts A.2, A.3, A.4 and A.5 report spending by industry category for the one-mile, two-mile, four-mile, and over fourmile radius.

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84 Chart A.1 Consumer Spending in 1/2 Mile Radius $ 0 $ 2,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 8,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 14,000,000Food: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food at home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food away from home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Alcoholic beverages: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Household furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Home furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Major Appliances Small electrical kitchen appliances: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Men's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Boys'apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Women's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Girls' apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Children under 2 Footwear: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Watches & jewelry: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Medical care: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Othermedical care service: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Prescription drugs: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Entertainment: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Television, radios, sound equipment, PCs...... Pets & toys Sporting goods, video rentals & musical instruments Newspapers & Magazines Film Processing & Photographic Equipment Estimated Expected

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85 Chart A.2 Consumer Spending 1 Mile Radius $ 0 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 25,000,000Food: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food at home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food away from home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Alcoholic beverages: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Household furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Home furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Major Appliances Small electrical kitchen appliances: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Men's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Boys'apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Women's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Girls' apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Children under 2 Footwear: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Watches & jewelry: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Medical care: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Othermedical care service: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Prescription drugs: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Entertainment: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Television, radios, sound equipment, PCs...... Pets & Toys Sporting goods, video rentals & musical instruments Newspapers & Magazines Film Processing & Photographic Equipment Estimated Expected

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86 Chart A.3 Consumer Spending 2 Mile Radius $ 0 $ 2,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 8,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 14,000,000 $ 16,000,000 $ 18,000,000Food: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food at home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food away from home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Alcoholic beverages: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Household furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Home furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Major Appliances Small electrical kitchen appliances: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Men's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Boys'apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Women's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Girls' apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Children under 2 Footwear: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Watches & jewelry: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Medical care: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Othermedical care service: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Prescription drugs: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Entertainment: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Television, radios, sound equipment, PCs...... Pets & Toys Sporting goods, video rentals & musical instruments Newspapers & Magazines Film Processing & Photographic Equipment Estimated Expected

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87 Chart A.4 Consumer Spending 4 Mile Radius $ 0 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 30,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 45,000,000Food: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food at home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food away from home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Alcoholic beverages: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Household furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Home furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Major Appliances Small electrical kitchen appliances: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Men's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Boys'apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Women's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Girls' apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Children under 2 Footwear: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Watches & jewelry: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Medical care: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Othermedical care service: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Prescription drugs: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Entertainment: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Television, radios, sound equipment, PCs...... Pets & Toys Sporting goods, video rentals & musical instruments Newspapers & Magazines Film Processing & Photographic Equipment Estimated Expected

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88 Chart A.5 Consumer Spending Over 4 Mile Radius $ 0 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 30,000,000 $ 35,000,000 $ 40,000,000Food: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food at home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Food away from home: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Alcoholic beverages: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Household furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Home furnishings: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Major Appliances Small electrical kitchen appliances: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Men's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Boys'apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Women's apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Girls' apparel: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Children under 2 Footwear: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Watches & jewelry: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Medical care: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Othermedical care service: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Prescription drugs: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Entertainment: Total Spent ($000) (2000) Television, radios, sound equipment, PCs...... Pets & Toys Sporting goods, video rentals & musical instruments Newspapers & Magazines Film Processing & Photographic Equipment Estimated Expected

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89 ii. Sales data by SIC may not be fully comparable with CES expected spending data. If a business operates in more than one SIC classification, the SIC code for the business is determined by the activity that generates the majority of the business’ sales. In such situations a portion of the sales will be credited to an incorrect SIC. An added measurement problem arises because CES categories and SIC categories are not fully compatible. Some CES categories are comprised of products that are sold by stores with different SIC codes. CEDR defined separate sales categories were created that were more compatible with both the CES and the SIC classifications. Even this procedure, however, fails to achieve complete compatibility between the two classification schemes. An example in this case is gasoline sales. Gas stations today generally have food or mini market stores with larger sales volume than gasoline. As a result, many gas stations are classified as food stores. Therefore the SIC data for gas stations may reflect little or no sales of gasoline, as sales have been incorrectly classified as food store sales. c) Two tables are included at the end of this section to reflect sales activity. Table 19 is referred to as Estimated Annual Sales by Business Location (2000). Table 20 is referred to as Estimated Annual Employment by Business Location (2000) These tables report estimates of total year 2000 annual sales for businesses in the designated geographic locations. Blank cells indicate no estimated sales. i. Using the CEDR sales categories, defined in Table 12, of (1,7,9,10,11,12,16,17,22,28,29,32,33,34,and 36) for which Main Street district sales occurred, CEDR estimates in Table 19 that Main Street annual sales are $14.4 million. When stores within one-half mile of Main Street are included the total rises to $53 million. Including sales of all stores within 1 mile, sales rise to $119 million. Within 2 miles sales are $406 million, and within 4 miles, $616 million. ii. Within one-half mile and one mile, Main Street sales are about the same as spending—sales in one-half mile and one mile radii from Main Street are 3.7 and 8.2 times as large as Main Street sales. Sales rise rapidly moving 2 and 4 miles from Main Street. At 2 miles sales are 28 times as large as Main Street Sales. The numbers indicate that Main Street sales in almost every category are a small part of the total Zephyrhills retail market. The implications of this are discussed in the next section of the report.

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90 Table 19 CEDR-Defined CategoryMain StreetHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles 1$ 4,433,725$ 14,585,067$ 43,293,338$ 51,834,089$ 181,494,394$ 231,988,883 2 $ 1,375,677$ 4,765,066$ 32,118,268$ 42,354,716$ 171,346,125$ 211,366,879 3 $ 3,444,661$ 12,251,822$ 15,485,515$ 20,214,942$ 30,016,771$ 49,213,775 6 N/AN/AN/A$ 4,524,408$ 14,434,880$ 14,434,880 7 $ 126,370$ 3,064,290$ 3,927,846$ 4,203,705$ 4,880,873$ 5,322,604 9 $ 328,250$ 879,245$ 953,414$ 1,501,535$ 2,377,669$ 2,708,793 10 $ 882,573$ 2,177,511$ 2,251,680$ 2,288,764$ 6,194,337$ 8,757,508 11 N/A$ 858,752$ 2,061,006$ 2,061,006$ 2,061,006$ 3,263,259 12 $ 1,911,842$ 2,929,291$ 4,654,060$ 6,283,325$ 19,409,956$ 34,846,685 16 $ 530,205$ 641,458$ 2,167,852$ 7,894,501$ 35,742,413$ 35,853,666 17 $ 775,247$ 1,746,981$ 2,076,693$ 2,076,693$ 3,571,291$ 4,384,388 19 N/A$ 5,047,839$ 8,301,806$ 11,631,151$ 117,115,314$ 125,326,527 20 N/AN/A$ 635,293$ 635,293$ 635,293$ 4,955,282 22 $ 1,240,109$ 6,991,648$ 11,814,769$ 15,280,285$ 20,352,405$ 22,466,255 23 N/AN/A$ 1,112,705$ 1,727,661$ 2,342,618$ 2,740,012 24 N/AN/A$ 735,697$ 894,755$ 1,053,116$ 2,627,275 27 N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A 28 $ 1,308,189$ 10,246,558$ 29,083,960$ 285,349,777$ 290,421,064$ 297,967,678 29 $ 320,609$ 1,817,416$ 2,030,320$ 4,643,967$ 6,450,081$ 7,816,065 32 $ 1,138,332$ 1,840,913$ 8,344,819$ 11,004,641$ 25,475,375$ 29,999,767 33 $ 201,340$ 2,561,222$ 3,426,311$ 4,182,303$ 6,855,506$ 13,918,025 34 $ 781,277$ 1,704,491$ 1,917,394$ 3,720,294$ 4,628,999$ 5,679,954 36 $ 488,180$ 2,139,478$ 3,555,049$ 5,485,301$ 7,885,331$ 9,335,972 37 $ 318,113$ 429,366$ 503,535$ 821,648$ 1,007,070$ 1,979,127 Source: Info USA/Reference USA Database Table 20 CEDR-Defined CategoryMain StreetHalf MileOne MileTwo MilesFour MilesTen Miles 1102.0348.5672.5826.51867.52586.0 2 12.039.0290.5361.01205.51475.8 3 92.5329.0415.5542.5803.51319.0 6 N/AN/AN/A7.041.541.5 7 2.561.578.588.5116.0165.5 9 3.09.510.516.025.529.5 10 5.514.015.015.540.056.0 11 N/A5.012.012.012.019.0 12 8.624.036.452.1104.0300.0 16 5.57.020.062.0270.0271.5 17 7.527.029.529.544.056.5 19 N/A10.017.527.0220.5237.5 20 N/AN/A2.52.52.519.5 22 12.058.099.5131.5180.5200.0 23 N/AN/A7.09.512.014.5 24 N/AN/A14.517.019.554.0 27 N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A 28 15.0204.0490.52932.03007.03077.0 29 3.117.519.444.161.574.5 32 14.522.088.0144.0283.5352.8 33 2.519.524.532.048.583.0 34 5.636.540.956.178.095.5 36 13.158.596.4123.6184.5221.5 37 3.04.55.58.511.015.0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: 1997 Census of Retail Trade,"sales per employee" Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation Estimated Annual Sales by Business Location (2000) Estimated Annual Employment by Business Location (2000)

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91 E. Calculating the Gap Between Spending and Retail and Service Sales. CEDR calculates the gap between expected spending and estimated sales for each reported distance from Main Street. The gap attempts to quantify the fraction of local spending that is being captured by the businesses in the Zephyrhills area. If the expected spending is larger than the estimated sales, we say a gap exists and there is room for additional businesses. If the expected spending is lower than the estimated sales, we say that the market is fully served, or saturated, and the businesses are a population draw. An area with a large estimated sales gap, and a low level of saturation, offers a greater likelihood of success for new stores. Another commonly used measure of saturation in a market area is the index of retail saturation. This index, measured as the ratio of total retail sales in the area divided by the square footage of retail space, can be benchmarked against ratios for other cities the size of Zephyrhills. A low value for the index indicates potential for new sales activity. This measure, calculated for the area mile about Main Street is: Total estimated sales: $76,678,000 = $349/sq.ft. Square feet of retail space: 220,000 The ratio is $349 of annual sales per square foot of space in Main Street Zephyrhills. This number can be evaluated by tracking it over time and by comparing it with similar shopping areas. 1. Limitations in Interpreting the Data. When interpreting and applying the data to business location decisions, it is important to be aware of data limitations. a) First, the data presented here is by CEDR-defined category. Expected spending data by SIC code and sales data by product for a small region do not exist. Therefore, the market gaps and saturation levels identified below are for the general categories. It is entirely possible that a category is identified as saturated when a market exists for individual business types within that category. It is also possible that a gap can be identified for a category although the demand for a particular business has been saturated. b) Sales by Zephyrhills Businesses to Travelers on State Road 54 and U.S. Route 301 Second, because Main Street lies at the crossroads of Highway 301 and State Road 54, it is expected that a portion of the local sales data reflects

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92 spending by people traveling along one or both of these routes. The same is true for the ten-mile data that include many of the business establishments located at the intersection of Interstate 75 and State Road 54. c) Third, the sales and spending data are estimated for specific geographic boundaries. Although CEDR attempted to create boundaries that are functional from the standpoints of distance and access, the boundaries selected may not conform to actual consumer destinations specific to individual businesses in the study area. This problem may be especially severe for those businesses located near the boundary of the defined market area. For example, a grocery store located just east of I-75 will be included in the estimated sales data for food, but many of those sales may come from households living just on the other side of the interstate. These households will not be included in the demand side of the equation and therefore sales will appear to greatly exceed expected spending. These empirical considerations should be kept in mind when using the spending gaps and market saturation levels identified in this section as a guide to the economic activity and health on Main Street and in Zephyrhills. 2. The Market Gap for Year Round Residents The discussion of spending gaps and market saturation begins with the estimation of market gaps and market saturation for year round residents All data for this analysis is presented in Tables 21 and 22 at the end of this section. Table 21 reports spending gaps for increasing concentric circles around Main Street for year-round residents. Table 22 reports the same data for the sum of year-round and seasonal residents. The data discussed in the analysis of market gaps and saturation comes from the columns for which the spending and sales geographic areas are equivalent. Quantities in black show that demand by residents within the area exceeds recorded sales of businesses within the area. Quantities in red indicate that businesses within the area sell more than is demanded by residents within the area, i.e. that persons residing outside the area make some of the purchases. As an example, the first column in each table measures the difference between the expected spending of the households within a half-mile radius of Main Street and the estimated sales of businesses in the Main Street district. This column is useful in identifying business categories where Main Street currently attracts customers as opposed to categories where supply is greater just at the establishments on State Road 54 and U.S. 301, peripheral to Main Street. The following paragraphs summarize information in the Tables 21 and 22.

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93 Table 21 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Half Mile Expected Spending less Main Street Sales Half Mile Expected Spending less Half Mile Sales One Mile Expected Spending less One Mile Sales Two Miles Expected Spending less Two Miles Sales Four Miles Expected Spending less Four Miles Sales Ten Miles Expected Spending less Ten Miles Sales 1$ 8,645,946($ 1,505,396)($ 8,865,283)$ 688,748($ 86,611,025)($ 101,444,025)food2$ 10 845 751$ 7 456 362$ 237 465$ 6 863 482 ( $ 82 973 629 ) ( $ 90 714 447 ) food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs, tobacco3$ 1 778 623 ( $ 7 028 538 ) ( $ 1 883 283 ) $ 622 256$ 8 041 901$ 3 843 880food away from home6$ 6 729 457$ 6 729 457$ 17 852 789$ 22 587 822$ 34 158 640$ 51 894 372utilities, fuels, pub. Svcs7$ 1 389 993 ( $ 1 547 927 ) ( $ 34 260 ) $ 1 735 361$ 6 190 764$ 10 483 387household ops9$ 177 310 ( $ 373 684 ) $ 354 819$ 499 371$ 1 300 996$ 2 422 585household textiles & sm appliances/misc housewares10$ 34 161 ( $ 1 260 777 ) $ 122 475$ 1 325 815$ 496 800$ 643 407furniture11$ 103 749 ( $ 755 004 ) ( $ 1 793 604 ) ( $ 1 649 175 ) ( $ 1 305 633 ) ( $ 2 183 431 ) floor coverings12$ 187 744 ( $ 829 705 ) $ 782 919$ 2 045 735 ( $ 4 105 354 ) ( $ 13 372 356 ) maj appliances & misc hshld equip16$ 3 358 394$ 3 247 141$ 8 053 866$ 7 684 993 ( $ 7 442 228 ) $ 3 304 814apparel & accessories17 ( $ 182 001 ) ( $ 1 153 735 ) ( $ 540 216 ) $ 264 996$ 762 950$ 1 781 032other apparel prods & svcs19$ 9 357 960$ 4 310 121$ 15 944 118$ 25 582 818 ( $ 49 288 448 ) ( $ 30 715 558 ) vehicle purch20$ 3 241 551$ 3 241 551$ 7 876 795$ 12 350 882$ 22 866 116$ 27 369 826gas & motor oil22$ 478 932 ( $ 5 272 608 ) ( $ 7 294 589 ) ( $ 8 380 853 ) ( $ 7 882 431 ) ( $ 5 290 189 ) main& repairs auto23$ 883 284$ 883 284$ 1 144 041$ 1 728 022$ 4 103 333$ 6 455 221car rental24$ 672 055$ 672 055$ 997 736$ 1 754 860$ 3 867 708$ 4 387 895pub transport27$ 2 736 024$ 2 736 024$ 7 250 471$ 11 029 311$ 19 757 995$ 26 955 533health insurance28$ 94 254 ( $ 8 844 115 ) ( $ 25 425 957 ) ( $ 279 774 737 ) ( $ 280 233 689 ) ( $ 283 786 021 ) medical svcs29 ( $ 66 181 ) ( $ 1 562 989 ) ( $ 1 362 134 ) ( $ 3 618 970 ) ( $ 4 603 905 ) ( $ 5 267 994 ) med supplies32$ 652 237 ( $ 50 344 ) ( $ 3 773 607 ) ( $ 4 020 452 ) ( $ 12 401 867 ) ( $ 11 199 097 ) fees & admiss/other entertain33$ 1 386 600 ( $ 973 282 ) $ 751 804$ 2 186 515$ 4 655 155$ 1 919 567tv, radio & sound equip34$ 46 697 ( $ 876 516 ) $ 234 732 ( $ 433 981 ) $ 1 406 571$ 2 781 910pets. Toys. Play equip36$ 997 063 ( $ 654 234 ) $ 346 612$ 471 860$ 2 887 852$ 5 528 705personal care prods & svcs37 ( $ 8 780 ) ( $ 120 034 ) $ 306 070$ 412 329$ 1 248 513$ 1 166 825readingSource: Tables 16 and 19 Difference between Expected Spending by Year Round Residents and Estimated Annual Sales b y Business Location ( 2000 )

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94 Table 22 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Half Mile Expected Spending less Main Street Sales Half Mile Expected Spending less Half Mile Sales One Mile Expected Spending less One Mile Sales Two Miles Expected Spending less Two Miles Sales Four Miles Expected Spending less Four Miles Sales Ten Miles Expected Spending less Ten Miles Sales 1$ 8,957,747($ 1,193,595)($ 7,230,895)$ 3,443,565($ 82,258,654)($ 96,696,764)food2$ 11 132 148$ 7 742 759$ 1 738 690$ 9 393 849 ( $ 78 975 870 ) ( $ 86 353 971 ) food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs, tobacco3$ 1 907 224 ( $ 6 899 937 ) ( $ 1 209 189 ) $ 1 758 465$ 9 837 011$ 5 801 861food away from home6$ 6 889 592$ 6 889 592$ 18 692 177$ 24 002 639$ 36 393 927$ 54 332 467utilities, fuels, pub. Svcs7$ 1 432 207 ( $ 1 505 713 ) $ 187 015$ 2 108 327$ 6 780 019$ 11 126 106household ops9$ 189 317 ( $ 361 678 ) $ 417 756$ 605 454$ 1 468 598$ 2 605 394household textiles & sm appliances/misc housewares10$ 57 669 ( $ 1 237 269 ) $ 245 700$ 1 533 515$ 824 948$ 1 001 328furniture11$ 106 656 ( $ 752 097 ) ( $ 1 778 367 ) ( $ 1 623 492 ) ( $ 1 265 056 ) ( $ 2 139 172 ) floor coverings12$ 241 207 ( $ 776 242 ) $ 1 063 156$ 2 518 085 ( $ 3 359 082 ) ( $ 12 558 375 ) maj appliances & misc hshld equip16$ 3 453 754$ 3 342 501$ 8 553 723$ 8 527 518 ( $ 6 111 112 ) $ 4 756 703apparel & accessories17 ( $ 165 318 ) ( $ 1 137 051 ) ( $ 452 766 ) $ 412 396$ 995 829$ 2 035 041other apparel prods & svcs19$ 9 587 988$ 4 540 149$ 17 149 868$ 27 615 151 ( $ 46 077 539 ) ( $ 27 213 321 ) vehicle purch20$ 3 317 763$ 3 317 763$ 8 276 283$ 13 024 232$ 23 929 950$ 28 530 183gas & motor oil22$ 519 818 ( $ 5 231 721 ) ( $ 7 080 270 ) ( $ 8 019 611 ) ( $ 7 311 700 ) ( $ 4 667 676 ) main& repairs auto23$ 907 235$ 907 235$ 1 269 585$ 1 939 630$ 4 437 656$ 6 819 877car rental24$ 690 824$ 690 824$ 1 096 117$ 1 920 685$ 4 129 697$ 4 673 655pub transport27$ 2 799 914$ 2 799 914$ 7 585 365$ 11 593 786$ 20 649 816$ 27 928 270health insurance28$ 129 579 ( $ 8 808 790 ) ( $ 25 240 788 ) ( $ 279 462 629 ) ( $ 279 740 585 ) ( $ 283 248 177 ) medical svcs29 ( $ 59 988 ) ( $ 1 556 795 ) ( $ 1 329 672 ) ( $ 3 564 253 ) ( $ 4 517 457 ) ( $ 5 173 703 ) med supplies32$ 703 045$ 464 ( $ 3 507 282 ) ( $ 3 571 552 ) ( $ 11 692 645 ) ( $ 10 425 526 ) fees & admiss/other entertain33$ 1 424 579 ( $ 935 302 ) $ 950 885$ 2 522 073$ 5 185 308$ 2 497 821tv, radio & sound equip34$ 68 120 ( $ 855 093 ) $ 347 026 ( $ 244 706 ) $ 1 705 609$ 3 108 080pets. Toys. Play equip36$ 1 033 084 ( $ 618 213 ) $ 535 425$ 790 110$ 3 390 659$ 6 077 132personal care prods & svcs37 ( $ 944 ) ( $ 112 197 ) $ 347 145$ 481 562$ 1 357 896$ 1 286 132readingSource ; Tables 18 and 19 Difference between Estimated Annual Sales by Business Location (2000) and Ex p ected Total S p endin g b y All Residents

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95 a) Food The data show that the demand for food—the combination of food at home and food away from home—is satisfied by current sales of businesses located in the half-mile radius of Main Street. But there is a large market gap for Category 2 goods: the combination of food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs and tobacco. The demand for food away from home is met for households within the half-mile and one-mile distances. Significant unmet demand for food away from home exists once the market area is extended beyond one mile from Main Street. The sales and spending data for food indicate that Main Street does not attract people for any of the food categories. For food at home and related goods, it appears that households are traveling away from Main Street towards Wesley Chapel or Dade City to acquire foodstuffs. Unmet demand of approximately $7 million exists within the two-mile radius around the Main Street district. While the demand for food at home, alcohol, housekeeping supplies, drugs and tobacco (i.e. items purchased at grocery stores) is met for the larger market, little of these sales occur on Main Street. Main Street’s percentage of the sales in the area falls to a mere 4.3% by the one-mile radius. While this analysis was in progress, Neukome’s Health Food Store closed and thus it is expected that today even less of the local demand is met on Main Street. It may be argued that Main Street is not the right location for a grocery store. In the next section, data from eighteen other Florida Main Streets is analyzed. That section will help identify businesses suitable for a Main Street. Households are attracted to establishments just outside of the Main Street district, spending more than expected for food away from home (i.e. eating and drinking establishments) at the half-mile and one-mile distances. Several dining establishments are located just outside of the Main Street district where much of the restaurant spending occurs. However, as you move further away from Main Street, the sales of eating and drinking establishments increase, but not enough to meet expected spending. RECOMMENDATION: Neither Main Street nor the market at large appears to satiate demand for dining out and it appears that Main Street could capture a larger community demand. Main Street establishments comprise over one-fourth of all sales in restaurant establishments within a half-mile distance. Main Street’s market share slowly declines with distance, dropping rapidly at four-miles and falling to 7.0% for the ten-mile market area. In both cases, establishments located outside of the Main Street area meet the demand, so patrons have no need to enter the Main Street district. Main

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96 Street establishments are missing out on ancillary activities that many people engage in before or after a meal. b) Utilities, Fuels and Public Services The demand for utilities, fuels and public services far outweighs sales by existing businesses. Due to the history of utilities and their status as natural monopolies, such a result is expected. Excluding municipally owned utilities, these companies generally cover very large geographic areas – as large as entire states and national regions and maintain few office operations. c) Household Operations Household operations include personal services and other household expenses and services such as lawn and garden, storage, dry-cleaning, furniture repair, and domestic help. The data show that the demand for this category is less than sales for the half-mile and one-mile radii. As the market area expands to two, four and ten miles, demand exceeds sales. The data also show that establishments on Main Street do not saturate the half-mile household demand. Again, it appears that there are establishments located just outside of the Main Street district that meet current demand. There is a market gap for the two, four and ten mile markets. d) Household Textiles and Small Appliances / Miscellaneous Housewares This category includes linens and towels, small kitchen and cooking appliances, plates, flatware, and glassware and plastic dinnerware. The sales data for this category in the half-mile market area exceed the expected levels of spending. Beyond the half-mile radius, however, sales fail to meet expected spending levels, indicating that there is a market gap and unmet demand for these goods exists. RECOMMENDATION: As with many other categories, the Main Street district captures a very small percentage of the existing sales (4.1%). This can be considered a missed opportunity for Main Street to capture potential customers before and after they visit their shopping destination. e) Furniture Estimated sales exceed the expected spending for households in the Zephyrhills area for just one market area—the half-mile radius around Main Street. Future Main Street strategies should incorporate ways to capitalize from this category of goods. Sales by furniture establishments remain stable as the market area expands to two miles and then almost triple in the fourmile market area. Yet, these sales still do not capture all of the expected spending by households. It appears that some households are being drawn away from the Main Street district for furniture shopping. Main Street sales are healthy in this category. Furniture store sales on Main Street comprise 40.5% of sales within the half-mile radius and come very close to meeting the demand in the immediate neighborhood. It appears that furniture shopping on Main Street is a population draw. f) Floor Coverings

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97 There are no floor covering sales/stores on Main Street, but sufficient sales exist within a half-mile to meet the small demand projected from expected spending numbers. Since this category consists mostly of wall-to-wall carpeting, it is not unusual to have few establishments with large market areas. The market demand for floor coverings in the Zephyrhills area appears to be saturated. g) Major Appliances and Miscellaneous Household Equipment Major appliances include refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves, vacuums, washing machines, microwaves, air conditioners and sewing machines. Miscellaneous household equipment is a broad category including items sold by hardware stores, computer stores, florists, luggage stores and miscellaneous retail establishments. Estimated sales in this category exceed expected spending for every geographic area except two: the one-mile and two-mile radii. The unmet demand in those market areas is being absorbed by businesses at the fourand ten-mile distances. Market saturation appears to be the case with this category. Sales in this category are similar to furniture store sales in two regards. First, some households are being drawn away from Main Street to shop for appliances and equipment. Second, sales on Main Street comprise 65.3% of sales in the immediate neighborhood, indicating that other people are drawn to Main Street to purchase appliances and household equipment. RECOMMENDATION: Main Street strategies should acknowledge this attraction and may wish to capture greater market share and sales on complementary goods through marketing and strategic planning. h) Apparel and Accessories and Other Apparel Products and Services While it is logical to examine these categories together, the market analyses for the two are not identical. One observes a market gap for apparel and accessories, beginning on Main Street and continuing through to the four-mile market area. Excess demand reappears at the ten-mile distance. Clearly, there is a demand for clothing and accessories in the Zephyrhills market that is not being satisfied locally, except at the four-mile distance. Expected unmet demand reaches a peak of $8.1 million annually for the one-mile market area. The data indicate that consumers are traveling away from the center of town and the Main Street district to buy clothes at the Wal-Mart store located between two and four miles from Main Street. In order to reverse this trend, Main Street will have to encourage the presence of apparel and accessory stores that effectively compete with this and other existing establishments or that target different market segments. Main Street’s immediate neighborhood market appears to be saturated for other apparel products and services. Estimated sales exceed expected

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98 spending for this category until the two-mile market area is reached. Sales by Main Street’s establishments account for 44.4% of the immediate half-mile sales and Main Street establishments maintain a healthy share of the market for some distance. Main Street can attract apparel establishments by capitalizing on the other apparel products and services category. i) Transportation-Related Categories Transportation-related categories include vehicle purchases, gasoline and motor oil, auto maintenance and repairs, car rentals and public transportation. As might be expected, for the most part, the estimated sales do not meet expected spending levels. However for major purchases, such as vehicles, consumers tend to engage in serious comparison-shopping and many auto dealers locate near one another for convenience to the customer. Datarelated problems skew the results for gasoline and motor oil; therefore, it is difficult to make a solid conclusion on the market gap or saturation for gasoline. Additionally, since part of the area lies on a transportation corridor, it is difficult to get a good estimate for demand. Auto maintenance and repair is the one category for which CEDR concludes is saturated. Estimated sales on auto repairs exceed expected spending at all geographic levels. Establishments in the Main Street district do not contribute heavily to these sales, but the service can be found just outside of the district. Sales continue to rise throughout the market area as you move further from Main Street, most likely to be convenient to customers. There is a market gap for car rental and public transportation. Expected spending exceeds estimated sales at all distances from Main Street. Mostly travelers frequent automobile rental companies. And since there is not a major transportation hub in Zephyrhills, it would be expected that travelers would rent cars elsewhere. Although public transportation is limited, this category is affected by the geographic nature of the data. When a household purchases public transportation services, sales will be credited to company headquarters, which is located outside of the area of study. j) Health Insurance The data show a large market gap for health insurance, mostly a reflection of the geographic nature of the data. Health insurance sales are conducted through the company’s main office but benefits are portable. So if all members of the community purchase health insurance, a market gap would still be expected unless a health insurance company maintains a sales office within the market area. Additionally, CEDR projected the expected sales from household income data, which does not reflect the availability of government health insurance (i.e. Medicare), a likely source of insurance for a fair percentage of area households (see demographic data in Section V.C). The data does not provide definitive evidence regarding the market gap or saturation level for health insurance.

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99 k) Medical Services and Medical Supplies The Zephyrhills retail market provides plentiful medical services and supplies. The East Pasco Medical Center is an anchor site for medical professionals and retail suppliers. The market is fully saturated, with estimated sales greatly exceeding expected spending, especially when the Medical Center’s data are included. The Zephyrhills area attracts a high volume of people who make use of the medical services and supplies offered locally RECOMMENDATION: Main Street strategists should use this information when marketing related and complementary products for the Main Street shopping district. l) Fees and Admissions and Other Entertainment Equipment and Services Fees and admissions include spending for participant sports, admissions to events and movies, membership costs for health and country clubs, golf fees, movie rentals and recreation expenses on trips. Other entertainment equipment and services include spending on such items as exercise equipment, recreation equipment (boating, hunting, fishing, etc.), photography expenses, and video games. It appears from the data that the Zephyrhills market area is saturated, with estimated sales exceeding expected spending by tens of millions of dollars in the four-mile market area. Some of the excess spending may be attributable to the area’s reputation for high quality skydiving facilities and golf courses. RECOMMENDATION: The Main Street district should incorporate knowledge of an existing stream of tourist population into their plans for redevelopment, capitalizing on research which has shown resource-based tourists spend more while traveling.8 m) Televisions, Radios and Sound Equipment The data show that demand in the half-mile market area is met through existing sales, but that demand in all of the other market areas (one, two, four and ten miles) is not being met by current business establishments. A significant market gap of $4.7 million exists in the four-mile market area. Additionally, market demand close to Main Street is not being met by businesses on Main Street, but rather by those in the area just outside of the district. Thus, Main Street could benefit by meeting the demand of the larger market area with increased supply in the downtown shopping district and, as a result, should attract more households to shop on Main Street. n) Pets, Toys, Hobbies and Playground Equipment The data show that there is market saturation for this category within the twomile ring around Main Street. (Market saturation is met at the half-mile and two-mile distances. Presumably households in the one-mile market area are patronizing the establishments in the half-mile area and the one to mile area.) For the fourand ten-mile market areas, it appears that there is a market gap for goods and services in this category. The Main Street district does capture a large percentage of the spending in this category. Main Street maintains a

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100 market share of over 40% for up to one mile. This suggests that the good and services offered by establishments in this category attract consumers to the Main Street district. Developers and planners should recognize that this category includes a broad classification of goods and services that includes veterinary services, toys, games, playground equipment and hobbies when planning redevelopment efforts. It is possible that Zephyrhills is a center for veterinary services, which are consumed by local pet owners as well as agricultural businesses in Pasco County. Simultaneously, the market may lack a sufficient supply of toy, game and playground equipment stores. This category highlights the difficulty of using broadly defined spending categories to assess market gaps and saturation. Additional analysis should be undertaken by businesses considering locating on Main Street. o) Personal Care Products and Services This category includes goods such as shampoo, conditioners, shaving products, oral hygiene products, cosmetics and bath products and electric personal care products. Services typically found in beauty salons and barbershops are also included. The data for this category indicate that the immediate neighborhood market around the Main Street district is saturated. There is significant spending in this category in the Main Street district, but it comprises less than 25% of the market for the half-mile market area and declines with distance. The data show that there is a significant market gap for personal care products and services for each of the market areas beyond a half-mile. Again the data for this category are difficult to interpret conclusively. The category includes many items which households may purchase at the grocery store, such as shampoo, toothpaste, and shaving cream. Grocery store sales were credited to the food/food at home category and thus cannot be applied to this category as well. Actual spending therefore may be understated. It is possible that no market gap exists. Again, additional analysis would be warranted before making business location decisions in this category. p) Reading This category includes subscriptions for newspapers and magazines, books, including book clubs and other reference books. A significant percentage of the spending in this category is captured by businesses on Main Street— 74.1% within the half-mile market area, 63.2% in the one-mile market radius and over 30% in the four-mile market area. Due to the small sales volumes outside of Main Street, the district has the potential to be the market center for reading products. The data show there is a market gap at all levels of geographic analysis except the half-mile area. However, location analysis for this category can be misleading. Subscriptions for newspapers and magazines will be credited to headquarter offices outside

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101 of the defined area (i.e. Tampa Tribune/St. Petersburg Times ), but can be delivered to households living in Zephyrhills. Again, additional analysis may be warranted. 3. Spending by Seasonal Residents Seasonal residents are comprised of individuals who have the ability to spend part of the year in one location and the rest of the year in another location. Often, seasonal residents are people no longer working who have the required flexibility to maintain two residences. Retired persons are generally older and often elderly (75+ years of age). The spending patterns of the elderly population are an important consideration because research has shown that the elderly are less likely to travel even moderate distances for goods and services and more likely to shop locally. CEDR calculates that seasonal residents of Zephyrhills add a large amount of spending to the economy. In this analysis, seasonal residents were assumed to spend five months per year in the area and their spending was prorated accordingly. Because seasonal residents add spending, the base analysis above remains valid for all identified market gaps. That is, if a market gap existed when considering only annual residents, that gap only grows when seasonal residents’ spending is included in the analysis. Spending by seasonal residents does have the ability to shift market saturation to a market gap. In this section, we will briefly touch on the only category for which a gap was created as a result of seasonal spending. The addition of seasonal residents’ spending affects the category for household operations In this category, which already exhibited patterns of unmet market demand, the one-mile market area changes from market saturation to market demand. Establishments in this category include landscaping, lawn and garden services, storage and trucking, linen supplies, laundromats and dry-cleaners, carpet and upholstery cleaning, pest control and domestic services. 4. Main Street Stores Contribute to Five Spending Categories Within the southeast Pasco County region Main Street Zephyrhills contributes significantly to five spending categories: household textiles and small appliances/miscellaneous housewares, furniture, other apparel products and services, pets, toys and playground equipment, and reading. In each of these categories, Main Street sales are more than one-third of the sales within the half-mile market area and maintain a market share above ten percent within the southeast Pasco or ten-mile market area. Given that Main Street businesses comprise 7.4% of all establishments in the ten-mile market area, and only 1.7% of the total sales9, these categories stand out for capturing a higher proportion of the market than average.

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102 Other apparel products and services, with 17.7% of sales, have the highest market share extending to the ten-mile market area. Reading is second with 16.1%, followed by pets, toys and playground equipment (13.8%), household textiles and small appliances/miscellaneous housewares (12.1%) and furniture (10.1%). These categories represent a foundation on which the future of Main Street can be built. F. Projected Spending Growth as a Result of Population Growth CEDR calculated projected spending growth resulting from projected household growth for the two market areas of interest: the four-mile or neighborhood shopping center market area, and the ten-mile or shopping center destination market area. Three growth rate assumptions were applied to two time periods. The average annual growth rate assumptions are: low or 1.7%; medium or 2.1%; and high or 3.0%. Household growth was projected to 2010 and 2020. The Table 23 : Projected Housing Units, shows the results of the projections. Table 23: Projected Housing Units Year: 2000 2010 2020 Market Area Occupied Units Low 1.7% Medium 2.1% High 3.0% Low 1.7% Medium 2.1% High 3.0% Four Miles 8,382 9,924 10,645 11,274 11,750 13,519 15,163 Ten Miles 6,639 7,861 8,432 8,929 9,307 10,708 12,010 1) The number of additional households in each market area was applied to the average consumer household spending data for the southern region to determine expected levels of annual spending. The increases were translated into the CEDR-defined categories for comparison with previous analyses and are presented in tables at the end of this section. The results are included in Table 24 that reports projected increases in spending at a range of 4 miles from Main Street, and in Table 25 that projects increased spending to a radius of ten miles around Main Street. Tables 24 and 25 are at the end of this section. a) Over the next ten and twenty years, new households will bring millions of dollars of increased spending to the region. If sufficient competitive businesses exist in Zephyrhills to absorb this demand, the spending will add to the local economy through sales taxes, jobs, personal income and increased property tax revenues.

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103 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 1$ 25 340 985$ 37 185 140$ 47 514 346$ 55 344 710$ 84 410 269$ 111 421 141 2$ 23 276 316$ 34 155 463$ 43 643 092$ 50 835 474$ 77 532 902$ 102 343 051 3$ 10 451 744$ 15 336 798$ 19 597 019$ 22 826 608$ 34 814 531$ 45 955 011 4$ 56 311 016$ 82 630 296$ 105 583 156$ 122 983 260$ 187 570 771$ 247 592 500 5$ 29 845 250$ 43 794 660$ 55 959 843$ 65 182 025$ 99 413 877$ 131 225 831 6$ 13 014 604$ 19 097 516$ 24 402 382$ 28 423 895$ 43 351 362$ 57 223 586 7$ 3 430 843$ 5 034 389$ 6 432 830$ 7 492 960$ 11 428 062$ 15 084 986 8$ 7 462 596$ 10 950 549$ 13 992 368$ 16 298 310$ 24 857 746$ 32 812 103 9$ 975 838$ 1 431 937$ 1 829 697$ 2 131 231$ 3 250 497$ 4 290 640 10$ 1 910 589$ 2 803 582$ 3 582 354$ 4 172 726$ 6 364 131$ 8 400 621 11$ 236 256$ 346 679$ 442 979$ 515 982$ 786 962$ 1 038 786 12$ 4 345 049$ 6 375 887$ 8 146 967$ 9 489 588$ 14 473 265$ 19 104 638 15$ 9 100 978$ 13 354 696$ 17 064 333$ 19 876 536$ 30 315 159$ 40 015 862 16$ 7 750 212$ 11 372 594$ 14 531 647$ 16 926 463$ 25 815 787$ 34 076 713 17$ 1 355 902$ 1 989 639$ 2 542 316$ 2 961 290$ 4 516 480$ 5 961 731 18$ 37 487 606$ 55 008 986$ 70 289 261$ 81 872 931$ 124 870 399$ 164 828 316 19$ 18 695 011$ 27 432 896$ 35 053 145$ 40 829 904$ 62 272 675$ 82 199 626 20$ 6 194 006$ 9 089 031$ 11 613 762$ 13 527 710$ 20 632 101$ 27 234 272 21$ 11 073 199$ 16 248 716$ 20 762 248$ 24 183 866$ 36 884 584$ 48 687 471 22$ 3 322 987$ 4 876 122$ 6 230 600$ 7 257 403$ 11 068 797$ 14 610 758 23$ 1 946 541$ 2 856 337$ 3 649 764$ 4 251 245$ 6 483 886$ 8 558 697 24$ 1 525 390$ 2 238 343$ 2 860 106$ 3 331 451$ 5 081 040$ 6 706 948 25$ 31 683 935$ 46 492 730$ 59 407 377$ 69 197 713$ 105 538 498$ 139 310 300 26$ 11 011 567$ 16 158 277$ 20 646 688$ 24 049 262$ 36 679 290$ 48 416 483 27$ 5 192 488$ 7 619 412$ 9 735 915$ 11 340 394$ 17 296 064$ 22 830 720 28$ 2 871 020$ 4 212 909$ 5 383 162$ 6 270 307$ 9 563 304$ 12 623 514 29$ 503 327$ 738 578$ 943 739$ 1 099 267$ 1 676 572$ 2 213 067 30$ 8 561 699$ 12 563 362$ 16 053 185$ 18 698 750$ 28 518 832$ 37 644 719 31$ 8 957 170$ 13 143 673$ 16 794 694$ 19 562 459$ 29 836 139$ 39 383 557 32$ 4 129 338$ 6 059 354$ 7 742 508$ 9 018 473$ 13 754 734$ 18 156 181 33$ 3 086 731$ 4 529 443$ 5 787 621$ 6 741 421$ 10 281 834$ 13 571 971 34$ 1 741 101$ 2 554 877$ 3 264 565$ 3 802 565$ 5 799 571$ 7 655 405 36$ 2 927 515$ 4 295 811$ 5 489 091$ 6 393 694$ 9 751 490$ 12 871 919 37$ 636 863$ 934 527$ 1 194 118$ 1 390 909$ 2 121 377$ 2 800 207Not included in a category$ 37 508 150$ 55 039 133$ 70 327 780$ 81 917 799$ 124 938 831$ 164 918 645 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 Table 24 2010 2020 Projected Growth in Expected Spending by Households within Four Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars )

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104 Table 25 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 1$ 31 368 241$ 46 029 483$ 58 815 451$ 68 508 237$ 104 486 927$ 137 922 233 2$ 28 812 498$ 42 279 209$ 54 023 434$ 62 926 496$ 95 973 805$ 126 684 953 3$ 12 937 651$ 18 984 596$ 24 258 095$ 28 255 830$ 43 095 034$ 56 885 234 4$ 69 704 376$ 102 283 595$ 130 695 704$ 152 234 356$ 232 183 760$ 306 481 426 5$ 36 943 828$ 54 211 051$ 69 269 677$ 80 685 320$ 123 059 087$ 162 437 392 6$ 16 110 077$ 23 639 787$ 30 206 395$ 35 184 409$ 53 662 317$ 70 833 996 7$ 4 246 855$ 6 231 799$ 7 962 854$ 9 275 132$ 14 146 183$ 18 672 892 8$ 9 237 546$ 13 555 095$ 17 320 399$ 20 174 801$ 30 770 066$ 40 616 336 9$ 1 207 938$ 1 772 518$ 2 264 884$ 2 638 136$ 4 023 615$ 5 311 152 10$ 2 365 015$ 3 470 403$ 4 434 404$ 5 165 193$ 7 877 815$ 10 398 677 11$ 292 448$ 429 136$ 548 340$ 638 707$ 974 138$ 1 285 858 12$ 5 378 503$ 7 892 368$ 10 084 692$ 11 746 650$ 17 915 675$ 23 648 603 15$ 11 265 610$ 16 531 059$ 21 123 020$ 24 604 093$ 37 525 504$ 49 533 481 16$ 9 593 570$ 14 077 521$ 17 987 944$ 20 952 357$ 31 955 973$ 42 181 729 17$ 1 678 398$ 2 462 867$ 3 146 996$ 3 665 621$ 5 590 707$ 7 379 706 18$ 46 403 889$ 68 092 663$ 87 007 292$ 101 346 093$ 154 570 345$ 204 032 099 19$ 23 141 548$ 33 957 706$ 43 390 402$ 50 541 140$ 77 083 992$ 101 750 492 20$ 7 667 227$ 11 250 822$ 14 376 051$ 16 745 224$ 25 539 366$ 33 711 839 21$ 13 706 917$ 20 113 410$ 25 700 469$ 29 935 906$ 45 657 441$ 60 267 599 22$ 4 113 346$ 6 035 889$ 7 712 525$ 8 983 549$ 13 701 468$ 18 085 870 23$ 2 409 518$ 3 535 706$ 4 517 847$ 5 262 388$ 8 026 053$ 10 594 351 24$ 1 888 198$ 2 770 725$ 3 540 371$ 4 123 824$ 6 289 545$ 8 302 169 25$ 39 219 837$ 57 550 848$ 73 537 194$ 85 656 124$ 130 640 424$ 172 444 721 26$ 13 630 626$ 20 001 462$ 25 557 423$ 29 769 287$ 45 403 318$ 59 932 158 27$ 6 427 501$ 9 431 659$ 12 051 565$ 14 037 663$ 21 409 867$ 28 260 920 28$ 3 553 881$ 5 214 933$ 6 663 526$ 7 761 675$ 11 837 899$ 15 625 968 29$ 623 042$ 914 246$ 1 168 203$ 1 360 723$ 2 075 338$ 2 739 436 30$ 10 598 066$ 15 551 510$ 19 871 373$ 23 146 176$ 35 301 927$ 46 598 371 31$ 11 087 599$ 16 269 846$ 20 789 247$ 24 215 315$ 36 932 550$ 48 750 785 32$ 5 111 485$ 7 500 548$ 9 584 034$ 11 163 483$ 17 026 244$ 22 474 559 33$ 3 820 898$ 5 606 753$ 7 164 184$ 8 344 842$ 12 727 329$ 16 800 013 34$ 2 155 216$ 3 162 545$ 4 041 029$ 4 706 991$ 7 178 976$ 9 476 213 36$ 3 623 814$ 5 317 553$ 6 794 651$ 7 914 409$ 12 070 845$ 15 933 456 37$ 788 338$ 1 156 801$ 1 478 135$ 1 721 731$ 2 625 938$ 3 466 226Not included in a category$ 46 429 319$ 68 129 979$ 87 054 973$ 101 401 633$ 154 655 053$ 204 143 912 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 Projected Growth in Expected Spending by Households within Ten Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars ) 2010 2020

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105 Each new business creates employment and generates associated earned income. CEDR calculated the number of new jobs that will be created as a result of the increased spending based on the sales per employee figures released in the 1997 Economic Census. These calculations assume no increases in employee productivity and as a result are likely to be overstated. The results are included in Table 26 that reports projected employment increases at a range of 4 miles from Main Street, and in Table 27 that projects increased employment to a radius of ten miles around Main street. Tables 26 and 27 are included at the end of this section. b) Additional employment was translated into the increase in the number of business establishments by calculating the average number of employees per establishment by CEDR-defined category for the ten-mile market area corresponding to southeast Pasco County. Table 28 and Table 29 : Projected Growth in Establishments, are included for the four and ten mile market areas at the end of this section. The purpose of these tables is to highlight the number of new businesses that will be needed to serve the increase in demand for goods and services resulting from population growth. 2. RECOMMENDATION: All of the new businesses cannot locate on Main Street even if the district is converted into high-rise buildings. However, Main Street should work to attract some of the new businesses in proportion to the number of existing businesses. Developers, city planning officials and Main Street merchants and building owners also can work strategically to build either a comprehensive range of available goods and services or to concentrate on a thematic shopping destination for Main Street Zephyrhills. a) It is unlikely that a single shopping destination or jurisdiction will be able to capture all of the demand. It is more likely that only a portion of the new establishments, jobs and income will be included in a fully redeveloped Main Street. 3. If Zephyrhills is able to redevelop Main Street as a shopping destination and fill some of the expected increase in demand, the city can benefit from the job creation and income addition. Additional jobs and income translate into higher demand for housing and property, leading to higher property values. In addition, the increased spending will translate into greater sales tax revenue to the city.

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106 Table 26 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 2169.6248.9318.1370.5565.1745.9 3263.0386.0493.2574.5876.21156.6 636.553.568.479.7121.6160.4 749.372.392.4107.6164.2216.7 99.714.218.121.132.242.5 1011.316.621.224.737.649.7 111.42.02.63.04.66.0 1227.440.251.359.891.1120.3 1666.898.0125.2145.8222.4293.6 1720.530.138.544.868.390.2 1948.771.491.2106.3162.1214.0 2024.435.845.753.281.2107.2 2231.446.158.968.6104.7138.1 237.911.614.817.326.434.8 2429.242.954.863.897.3128.4 277.210.613.515.824.131.8 2835.952.767.378.4119.6157.9 294.66.78.610.015.220.1 3242.161.879.092.0140.3185.2 3322.032.241.247.973.196.5 3412.318.023.026.840.853.9 3684.9124.6159.2185.5282.9373.4 373.55.16.57.511.515.2 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 1997 Economic Census "Sales p er em p lo y ee" Projected Growth in Employment Resulting from Increases in Expected Spending by Households within Four Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars ) 2010 2020

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107 Table 27 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 2210.0308.2393.7458.6699.5923.3 3325.6477.8610.5711.11084.61431.7 645.266.384.798.7150.5198.6 761.089.5114.4133.2203.2268.2 912.017.522.426.139.852.6 1014.020.526.230.546.661.5 111.72.53.23.75.77.5 1233.949.763.574.0112.8148.9 1682.7121.3155.0180.5275.3363.4 1725.437.347.655.484.6111.6 1960.288.4112.9131.6200.6264.8 2030.244.356.665.9100.5132.7 2238.957.172.984.9129.6171.0 239.814.418.421.432.643.1 2436.153.067.879.0120.4158.9 278.913.116.819.529.839.3 2844.465.283.397.1148.0195.4 295.78.310.612.418.824.9 3252.176.597.8113.9173.7229.3 3327.239.951.059.390.5119.5 3415.222.328.433.150.566.7 36105.1154.3197.1229.6350.2462.2 374.36.38.09.314.218.8 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 1997 Economic Census "Sales p er em p lo y ee" Projected Growth in Employment Resulting from Increases in Expected Spending by Households within Ten Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars ) 2010 2020

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108 Table 28 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 28.111.815.117.626.835.4 313.019.024.328.343.257.0 61.82.63.33.85.97.7 711.016.220.724.136.748.4 93.55.26.67.711.715.4 101.92.73.54.16.28.2 110.30.40.50.61.01.3 122.03.03.84.56.89.0 163.85.67.18.312.616.7 175.88.510.912.719.325.5 194.36.38.19.414.318.9 203.75.57.08.212.516.5 227.911.514.717.226.234.5 232.23.24.14.87.39.6 242.23.24.14.77.29.5 27N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A 282.53.64.75.48.310.9 291.72.43.13.65.57.3 325.37.79.911.517.623.2 334.05.87.48.713.217.4 343.75.46.88.012.216.1 3624.636.146.253.882.1108.3 371.42.02.63.04.66.1 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 1997 Economic Census "Sales p er em p lo y ee" Projected Growth in Establishments Resulting from Increases in Expected Spending by Households within Four Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars ) 2010 2020

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109 Table 29 CEDRDefined Cate g or y Low GrowthMedium GrowthHigh GrowthLow GrowthMedium GrowthHigh Growth 210.014.618.721.833.243.8 316.023.530.135.053.470.6 62.23.24.14.87.39.6 713.620.025.629.845.460.0 94.36.48.29.514.519.1 102.33.44.35.07.710.1 110.40.50.70.81.21.6 122.53.74.75.58.411.1 164.76.98.810.315.620.6 177.210.613.515.723.931.6 195.37.810.011.617.723.4 204.66.88.710.115.520.4 229.714.318.221.232.442.8 232.74.05.15.99.011.9 242.73.95.05.88.911.8 27N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A 283.14.55.86.710.213.5 292.13.03.94.56.99.0 326.59.612.214.321.728.7 334.97.29.210.716.421.6 344.56.68.59.915.119.9 3630.544.757.266.6101.6134.1 371.72.53.23.75.77.5 Source: Forecast household increases from Table 23 1997 Economic Census "Sales p er em p lo y ee" Projected Growth in Establishments Resulting from Increases in Expected Spending by Households within Ten Miles of Main Street ( 2000 Dollars ) 2010 2020

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110 VI. Competitive Analysis: How Do I Select a Location Within the Market and Determine the Strength of My Competition? Factors Influencing the Main Street Location. A. Determining the Location of Your Firm Within the Market Area. 1. Selecting a Business Location. Once you have determined the size and location of your customer base, defined your market area, and estimated market demand, you must select the location for your business. Factors to consider in choosing a location are: a) Access within the market area. Business location and customer access are interrelated. You should search for locations that have good access to your customers. Good access is defined by the costs of travel and travel time from residences to your business. b) Cost of the location. Central locations maximize access. So do store sites located along major transportation arteries. Competition for sites in these areas raises real estate costs and mitigates against locations with good access. Thus, you face a trade-off between access and the cost of space. c) Other public incentives and disincentives may influence access and location costs. Parking facilities, public safety, public services, utilities, and communication access. Special taxing districts and ad valorem taxes. Community redevelopment areas, (CRAs), and special enterprise zones. Layout and conditions of the site and of surrounding sites. B. Analyzing Your Competition. You may be the sole business in your surrounding market area. In this case, you probably face competition at the boundaries of your market area. If this is the case, the distance between you and your competitors depends upon the minimum size of your market area. Retailers who enjoy large economies of scale have lower mark-ups and larger market areas. Smaller retailers have smaller market areas. 1. You can use Business Directories and Geographic Information Systems Software (GIS software) to Locate Competitors.

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111 2. Wal – Mart. Wal Mart, a large-scale retailer, is located on U.S. 301 north of Zephyrhills. Wal Mart requires good highway access and extensive parking facilities because its customer base consists of much of southeast Pasco County. Wal Mart sells a broad range of products and competes with many smaller retailers. 3. Finding the Boundaries Between You and Your Competitors. Given the location of your store and the locations of your nearest competitors, you can use gravity-based models to delineate market boundaries and estimate retail demand of customers located between you and your competitors. Reilly’s model of retail competition is standard. Customers frequent trade areas according to 1) distance and 2) volume of activity (the size of the retail center). Ergo for a customer at a location between two shopping centers, A and B: 2 Ta Tb Sb Sa Pb Pa Where: The ratio [Pa/Pb] is the number of customers at the location who shop at A for each customer who shops at B Sa is the size (square feet) of A Sb is the size of B Ta is driving time to A Tb is driving time to B If you are a small retailer, “a” who carries products that compete with Wal Mart, “b”, Reilly’s model predicts that, at any given intermediate distance, your ratio of sales to Wal Mart’s sales, Pa/Pb will be small because of Wal Mart’s large square footage, “Sb”. a) Illustrative example: You operate a clothing store on Main Street Zephyrhills with 1100 square feet of retail space. A competitor store located at the intersection of I-75 and SR 54 has 1437 square feet of rental space. Crystal Lake community is located on State Road 54, 7 miles from your competitor and 5 miles from your store. For every person living at Crystal Lake who shops at your competitor’s store, how many shop at your store? The answer is from Reilly’s model of retail gravitation:

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112 Your store = 1100 sq. ft. x (7 miles)2 = 1.5 persons Competitor 1437 sq. ft. (5 miles)2 The formula predicts that 1.5 persons shop at your store for every 1 person who shops at your competitor’s store. This amounts to 60 percent of the residents living at Crystal Lake. Now assume that 600 persons live in Crystal Lake. Then the product, .6 x 600, shows that 360 persons from the Crystal Lake Community will patronize your store. 4. Modifications must be Made for Certain Factors. a) Differences in mix of goods available at stores A &B. This is crucial to downtown Zephyrhills. b) Differences in store quality, neighborhood (indoor vs. outdoor, etc). c) Shops located at tourist destinations, or at work site destinations. These locations generate large customer bases that deviate from residence patterns. Zephyrhills, in competition with many communities in the state of Florida has attempted to generate business through special events designed to attract tourists. Other local communities, including Plant City, Dade City, and San Antonio follow similar strategies. Note, appropriate retail goods must exist, and stores must remain open. C. When Your Customer Base is Sufficiently Large to Support Two or More Retail or Service Establishments, Competitors may wish to Contest Your entire Market Area. 1. The Pull of the Center of the Market Area. In most cases, competitors will choose to locate at the geographic center of the market area, that is, at the point of maximum access to the customer base. If your establishment also locates at the center of the market, you will compete “head to head” with your competitors. 2. The Cost of Central Location. Head-to-head competition at the market center equalizes each competitor’s spatial access to the entire customer base. Access lowers the delivered cost of goods, facilitating price competition. Real estate at central locations, because it benefits all retail and service providers, often commands a market premium. The increase in the cost of space may in part offset the benefits of central location, increasing the prices you must charge for your products. 3. Co-location in Shopping Precincts.

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113 The importance of a central location is a major factor in the historical pattern of “shopping precincts”. Shopping precincts are collections of retail and service establishments. In head-to-head competition, two or more businesses offering the same types of retail goods, or the same types of services, locate in the same shopping precinct. Competitors share the surrounding market. The percentage of customers patronizing a given business in the shopping precinct during a specified period of time is referred to as the business's “market share”. 4. Competing for Market Share. The individual retailer may follow several strategies to increase the size of business’s market and its share of the market. In addition to the choice of the business’s location, tools you may use to acquire market share include: a) Price competition. The key to price competition is efficiency. By finding methods to lower your costs you will be able to compete on price. b) Product and service qualities confer a competitive advantage. National organizations that offer specific brands and types of service often franchise these to local entrepreneurs. The franchise fee reflects the competitive advantage of the national product. c) Service is an important dimension of competition. One form of service is store hours. The firm should make every effort to remain open during the hours when most customers will choose to visit the store. Often it is important to remain open during the evenings and on weekends. The store should also open for special events that occur in the downtown area. d) Employees are the key to good service. Employee performance can be enhanced through training and performance incentives. e) Advertising and marketing is the final key to competitive advantage. Important facets of marketing your store are: Signage Newspaper ads Radio, television advertisements Direct marketing with flyers, direct customer approach Creating a brand for your store f) RECOMMENDATION: The individual businesses that are members of Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. can market the downtown area to their mutual advantage. Main Street businesses can also work with municipal government to increase the access and visibility of Main Street. The recently completed streetscaping undertaken by the city of

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114 Zephyrhills through its Community Development Block Grant programs, is a prime example of business-government cooperation. Such cooperation benefits Main Street businesses through increased sales. It benefits the community by enhancing one of the primary public areas that lend a sense of community to the city of Zephyrhills. i. Signage. One of the challenges facing Main Street Zephyrhills is that the eastern section of the precinct lacks visibility from State Road 54 and U.S. 301. While access from the intersection of State Road 54 and U.S. 301 is good, the entranceway is not emphasized. RECOMMENDATION: Actions to erect prominent signage notifying passing motorists of the individual shopping opportunities on Main Street, and further streetscaping that emphasizes the passageway from the major intersection are needed. ii. RECOMMENDATION: Improved signage to the bypass road to Dade City, and other actions to reduce the truck traffic on U.S. 301 can improve the environment of Main Street. Restricting truck traffic will reduce noise, dirt and congestion. It will also make the street crossing at the junction of State Road 54 and U.S. 301 less difficult and more pleasant. iii. RECOMMENDATION: Ideally, the city can create parking areas to the north and south of the eastern portion of Main Street Zephyrhills that are easily accessed from U.S. 301, and insure that the reverse it true, that U.S. 301 is easily accessed by Main Street shoppers

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115 Appendix I. Proposal to CIG. Revitalizing Main Street Zephyrhills: Building Community and Opportunity A Proposal to the University Community Initiative Introduction The City of Zephyrhills and Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. desire to create a partnership with the Center for Economic Development Research (CEDR), in the College of Business Administration, and the Florida Center for Community Design + Research (FCCD+R), in the School of Architecture and Design. CEDR and FCCD+R are service centers for the University of South Florida. The proposed partnership would create a plan for the redevelopment of the City centering on the area comprised by Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. The U.S. National Trust for Historic Preservation founded the Main Street Program with the goal of revitalizing the downtown cores of America’s communities. While the approach was originally developed to preserve the physical aspects of communities (or their “built environment”), the program has matured into a powerful economic development tool. The program is based on four main principles: physical design; building consensus and cooperation; marketing and promotion; and economic restructuring. These four elements combine in Main Street cities to form a comprehensive strategy for revitalization. Specific Aims CEDR and FCCD+R propose to design a comprehensive plan for physical and economic improvement of Main Street Zephyrhills to anchor the community, foster social interaction and increase economic opportunity. This plan will be based on analysis of the demographic and income characteristics for the greater Zephyrhills area, national

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116 and regional retail market information, architectural principles, historical development patterns and historical preservation techniques. The project will engage community leaders and citizens as partners in the process. The City of Zephyrhills, Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc., Zephyrhills Spring Water Company and the Florida Bureau of Historic Preservation’s Main Street Program will be the community partners in the project and will provide financial and in-kind resources. Significance The Tampa Bay metropolitan area10 population grew 28.2% from 1980 to 1990.11 During this time, the population inside the central cities (Clearwater, St. Petersburg and Tampa) grew by only 3.7%, whereas the population outside the central cities grew by 42.5%. A large part of this growth occurred in Pasco County, which increased population by 45.2%. The 2000 Census is expected to show that the rapid pace of growth in Pasco County has not abated during the past decade. The city of Zephyrhills, Florida lies approximately 34 miles to the northeast of Tampa and is one of six incorporated places in Pasco County. In 1990, the population inside the city limits was 8,465 and the Census Bureau estimates that the population grew to 9,610 by 1999.12 The area surrounding Zephyrhills is in unincorporated Pasco County, and has an expanding residential population. In 1990, the Census Bureau counted 35,620 residents in the 96 square mile area that comprises southeastern Pasco County, including the city of Zephyrhills. When the area is extended east to Interstate 75, the population grows to 41,758. This area was estimated to have nearly doubled its 1980 population of almost 26,000 to over 51,000 in 1998.13 As more families choose to call the greater Zephyrhills area home, the area is being transformed to urban usage. Growth is also transforming the city of Zephyrhills. Retail businesses have moved from their downtown Main Street locations to heavily traveled transportation corridors. US Highway 301 connects Zephyrhills to Dade City in

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117 the north and to Tampa in the south, and State Road 54 runs to the west of Main Street Zephyrhills linking the city to Interstate 75. Businesses have relocated along these roads in order to access commuter traffic as potential customers pass through Zephyrhills on their way to employment, education and recreation opportunities not available in Zephyrhills. While the growth of business activity on heavily traveled commuter routes is a natural result of urban expansion and suburban growth, a lack of economic activity downtown contributes to a community’s decline. As business after business either closes shop or moves to more heavily trafficked areas, the downtown district is transformed into vacant storefronts and empty streets. As a result, real estate prices fall and retail activities are being replaced by general office use, which are not dependent on, and which draw little, foot traffic, compounding the problem for the businesses that remain. As spending moves out of town, property values decline, local government revenues fall, and the community’s physical infrastructure suffers. Eventually, residents are unable to obtain goods and services locally; in essence, the population no longer belongs to a community. As Kent Robertson states plainly: “Localities need a center, or a gathering place, to function as communities.”14 Detailed Plan The proposed study is designed to assist Main Street Zephyrhills and the City of Zephyrhills in developing a comprehensive plan for the economic and physical revitalization of the downtown Zephyrhills area. In order to accomplish this goal, this study will address the following research items: 1. How many people live in Zephyrhills and the larger market area, what are their age, race and education levels, and how much income do they have to spend after

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118 accounting for housing and other essential needs? These factors determine current market potential. 2. What trends have population growth, residential, commercial and industrial development and urbanization shown for the greater Zephyrhills area and what are the projections for the future? These factors determine the future market potential for Main Street Zephyrhills. 3. What businesses are currently present on Main Street and in the greater Zephyrhills area? 4. How much revenue do specific types of business need to survive on Main Street? 5. Given i) the demographics of the Zephyrhills market area and ii) development of commercial districts along Highways 54 and U.S. 301, what types of businesses can generate sufficient revenue to prosper on Main Street? What additional activities are appropriate for Main Street? What activities should be introduced to Main Street? The market analyses in items 1-5 will be utilized to develop a plan for physical and economic revitalization of Main Street. 6. What provisions in the current land development codes and zoning regulations may have encouraged businesses to leave Main Street or prevent new businesses from locating there? What changes might reverse these impacts? 7. Which existing buildings are economically and physically viable to preserve/rehabilitate? 8. What are the ideal uses for the vacant lots or for replacement buildings on Main Street and what guidelines should their physical design follow? 9. What physical design aspects should buildings’ faade improvement incorporate so that Main Street can develop a consistent and collective theme? CEDR and FCCD+R will present the research and analysis at community-wide meetings. Researchers will solicit input from community members on the businesses,

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119 activities and design features residents desire for Main Street. CEDR and FCCD+R will facilitate the meetings to build consensus on the physical design and economic activities that the community envisions for Main Street Zephyrhills. Incorporating community members’ ideas and opinions, researchers will develop a comprehensive plan for “infill” and new development, parking, open spaces and other amenity features. Researchers will assist the City of Zephyrhills to identify the additional right-of-way, streetscape and pedestrian-realm improvements needed to support this plan and will assist in revising land development codes and zoning ordinances to make implementation feasible. Methodology This project will utilize US Census Bureau data (2000, 1990 and 1980) to analyze the local market area in terms of demographic and income characteristics and will place this analysis in the context of historical and projected regional growth and urbanization of Pasco County. Timeline The base research on the community and residents will be completed by October 2001. Community meetings will be held subsequently; one series will be held in early November to solicit the views of year-round residents and one series will be held in December to provide opportunity for both year-round and part-year residents to voice opinions. Feedback from residents will be incorporated into recommendations and presented to civic and business leaders in February 2002. The decision-making process will be facilitated in March and a final plan will be produced in May 2002. Impact and Future Plans The final product of the research project will be a comprehensive plan for the City of Zephyrhills and Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. to improve the physical and economic qualities of Main Street. The plan will be based on economic and market research, architectural design and street-scaping, citizen input and city-wide consensus building.

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120 This product will guide civic and business leaders for several years as the city of Zephyrhills preserves its history and serve as a focus for social and economic activities within the larger, rapidly growing urbanized area. This project will benefit Zephyrhills’ residents by increasing property values, improving quality of life fostering desired economic and social activities, and strengthening local government. Successful revitalization will help residents maintain and celebrate Zephyrhills’ character, and preserve one of the communities that make the Tampa Bay region unique. CEDR and FCCD+R will continue to advise Main Street Zephyrhills and the City of Zephyrhills as the Main Street plan is implemented. The University centers will provide the technical assistance needed to turn physical and economic redevelopment plans into action, so the residents and businesses can realize the goals set in the research and facilitation process.

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121 Appendix II. Proposal to Zephyrhills University of South Florida College of Business Administration Center for Economic Development Research School of Architecture and Design Florida Center for Community Design and Research

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122 Zephyrhills Main Street Revitalization Project – Joint Proposal Preliminary Scope of Work The University of South Florida’s Center for Economic Development Research and Center for Community Design and Research propose the following scope of work and budget for the City of Zephyrhills and Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. A. Market Analysis: Commercial activity in Zephyrhills and Main Street 1. Analyze the local market area to identify demographic and income characteristics of residents. 2. Analyze City of Zephyrhills and Main Street in the context of projected regional growth and increased urbanization of Pasco County. 3. Apply this analysis to existing research and literature to determine the type and number of businesses that can be supported by the local population. 4. Inventory the existing businesses in the local market area and provide a summary analysis of the mix, highlighting the differences between the results and Item #2 above. 5. Compare Zephyrhills’ market and Main Street with other markets and Main Street or downtown developments, identifying successful redevelopment strategies. 6. Report findings to relevant resident groups. Solicit additional input on demographic and business trends in Zephyrhills and its market area. B. Design and development of a program for revitalized Main Street. 7. Review current city and county regulations that apply to development on and off Main Street. 8. Develop a “theme” for visual character and signage for Main Street. 9. Develop architectural design guidelines for new development and renovation of existing structures. Identify buildings on Zephyrhills’ Main Street that are worth preserving and/or rehabilitating. Develop a maximum of three schematic designs for “model” single and multi-use buildings for Main Street lots with redevelopment potential. 10. Appraise income potential for alternative classes of retail, service, and residential buildings along the Main Street corridor. 11. Develop comprehensive plan for “infill” and new development, parking, open space and other amenity features. Identify additional right-of-way/streetscape/pedestrian-realm improvements. 12. Develop revisions to the city of Zephyrhills Land Development Code/Zoning Ordinance to accommodate new development. 13. Develop program for revitalized Main Street based on market research, architectural design and street-scaping, citizen input and citywide consensus building. CEDR and FCCDR will apply for a University Community Initiative grant to fund a portion of the proposal. The maximum funding award, which can be made under this grant, is $20,000. Additional costs are the responsibility of the city of Zephyrhills and Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. If UCI grant funding is not awarded, this proposal may be renegotiated.

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123 Appendix III. CEDR Center for Economic Development Research College of Business Administration University of South Florida VII. Mission. The Center for Economic Development Research initiates and conducts innovative research on economic development. The Center’s education programs are designed to cultivate excellence in regional development. Our information system serves to enhance development efforts at the University of South Florida, its College of Business, throughout the Tampa Bay region and the State of Florida. Sphere of Operations. CEDR undertakes research projects on which its contribution is substantive and recognized, and that confer significant benefits on the region. While CEDR must attract outside funding to support some activities, the Center does not actively compete with private consulting groups. CEDR provides the College of Business Administration, the University, local communities, and in particular, the Region’s economic development professionals with information and analysis on a wide range of urban, regional, and international issues affecting the 7-county Region. CEDR maintains a data center focusing on the measurement of variables that pertain to the demographics and business activity in the Region. CEDR cooperates with the Office of Corporate Development and the Small Business Development Center in the College of Business Administration on issues of business growth and development. CEDR cooperates with development agencies and with community organizations interested in regional economic and employment growth and the factors influencing business location. CEDR provides information, technical support and research to agencies dealing with the development of physical and human resources. CEDR facilitates the coordination of private and public policies and programs in development of physical infrastructure and of human and natural resources.

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124 CEDR acts as an interface between the University and the College of Business Administration and the larger community on topics of academic interest in regional economic development. CEDR provides data and conducts research on international trade and finance activities in the Center’s service area.

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125 CEDR Programs and Data. CEDR is a Type II research center in the State University System. CEDR is a Federal Data Repository, which receives Federal Statistical Reports and data releases. CEDR has data retrieval capability for a wide range of on-line Federal data. Among Federal data sources available to CEDR staff are: The 1992 Economic Census The 1990 Census of Population and Housing BLS data series on national, state, and local employment, wages, and prices BEA County Business Patterns The National Trade Database on CD-Rom and via Internet CEDR is a State of Florida Data Repository. CEDR maintains historical data series, edited and unedited, by Retail sales, taxable sales, and sales tax collections by Florida counties. ES-202 historical monthly data series on establishments, employment, and wages by SIC. CEDR maintains a file-server data base containing state data and the CRSP and CompuStat databases for firm-based and financial analysis. CEDR maintains a website that provides easily accessible information on USF’s 7 county service area. The website also provides links to Federal, State, and county level data. CEDR maintains and operates an up-to-date version of IMPLAN ProfessionalTM, an input-output model with regional impact analysis capability. CEDR publishes a quarterly economic report entitled The Tampa Bay Economy. The Tampa Bay Economy contains articles germane to regional economic development. CEDR staff provides expert assistance in model building and testing. CEDR maintains statistical packages for time series analysis, parametric hypothesis testing, and survey analysis and evaluation. CEDR offers the basic Economic Development Course, accredited by the American Economic Development Council, in partnership with the Florida Economic Development

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126 Council. The weeklong course constitutes the first requirement for the professional designation of Certified Economic Developer. CEDR is a member of the Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER). AUBER units located in Universities in the United States and Canada run varied programs in support of state and regional economic growth and development. CEDR is a member of the Regional Economic Information Network. CEDR Personnel. Director -Dr. Kenneth Wieand is professor of Finance and Real Estate in the College of Business Administration at USF. Dr. Wieand received his bachelor’s degree in economics at the University of Florida, and his Masters and Ph.D. in urban and regional economics at Washington University in St. Louis, MO. Dr. Wieand has served as Economist at the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas, Associate Professor of Economics at Marquette University, and Policy Analyst at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. He has served as consultant to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the U.S. Government Accounting Office, and to the Federal National Mortgage Association. Dr. Wieand has publications in leading urban and regional and real estate academic journals. Associate Director--Dr. Dennis Colie : In May 1994, Dr. Dennis Colie became the first graduate from USF's Ph.D. program in finance. He also holds an MBA from Sul Ross State University in Alpine, TX, and a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Hofstra University on Long Island in NY. Dr. Colie came to USF in 1987 following a successful 23-year career in the U.S. Army, during which he served in leadership and management positions in the U.S. and abroad. His international experience includes six years as a NATO tactical evaluation team chief, as well as spending one year as advisor to the Saudi Arabian Air Defense School. In the U.S. his activities encompassed logistics planning, training supervision, and personnel management. Before joining CEDR in May 1998, Dr. Colie taught undergraduate and graduate courses for the Finance Department in the College of Business Administration at USF. Data Manager--Dodson Tong graduated in the summer of 1998 with a Bachelor of Science degree, majoring in Management Information Systems in the College of Business Administration at USF. He then completed his academic minor in Economics in spring of 1999. As a full-time student his entrepreneurial skills included building customized computer systems to sell, as well as support for upgrades, and troubleshooting hardware and software problems. He worked with the University Police Department enforcing campus security and providing computer technical assistance for over four years. Mr. Tong joined CEDR in January 1999 as a research associate and data analyst. Coordinator of Information/Publications--Nolan Kimball has been with CEDR since July 1999. She has over fifteen years experience in the financial services industry.

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127 Nolan's previous employer was Salomon Smith Barney, where she worked in the mortgage bond department. She was responsible for the settlement of one billion dollars worth on bonds, on a monthly basis. Nolan has also worked for Chase Education Finance, as a consultant; NationsBank; GTE of Florida: and the Comptroller of the Currency. She is a graduate of Florida State University with a bachelor's degree in Finance. Economist--Gina Briley Space joined CEDR in October 2000 after serving in the Clinton Administration as Special Assistant to the Chairman and CEO of the Farm Credit Administration, an independent federal financial regulatory agency. Prior to that, Gina was as a Presidential Management Intern appointee working as Community Development Coordinator for USDA Rural Development's California State Office. At USDA, she administered the federal Empowerment Zone/Enterprise Community grant program for rural California and served on the second round grant review committee. As the Lyndon Baines Johnson Fellow to the US Congress in 1996, Gina worked at the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, participating in a joint legislative conference for public housing reform legislation. In 1997, Gina earned her Master of Public Policy and Administration from the Lyndon Baines Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, receiving awards for Outstanding Research and Academic Excellence. Her other professional experience includes positions in mortgage servicing, media and public relations and retail investments. She also holds a Bachelor of Arts from Duke University in both mathematics and political science. Economist--Alex McPherson joined CEDR in May 2000 after completion of his B.S.B.A. at USF with a major in finance and minor in economics. He also holds Bachelors of Building Construction degree from the University of Florida. Alex has more than 20 years experience in civil engineering design, including complex analysis, report preparation, and personnel management for a large variety of municipal and private project types and sizes. Web Database Developer--Anand Shah joined CEDR in January 2001. He has a Bachelor of Science in Management Information Systems from the College of Business Administration and a Bachelor of Biology at USF. Mr. Shah designs and creates CEDR's databases for economic development information. He is also CEDR's Webmaster.

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128 Endnotes 1 Due to the close location of the East Pasco Medical Center, conclusions about establishments and employment for the health services industry should be based on additional research, which was outside of the scope of this project. 2 Total sales on Main Street is a very small percent of total sales in southeast Pasco County because many industries have no presence on Main Street. 3 US Census Bureau, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, (SU-99-8) Population Estimates for Places (Sorted Alphabetically Within County): Annual Time Series, July 1, 1990 to July 1, 1999 (includes April 1, 1990 Population Estimates Base), http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metrocity/placebyco/SC99T8_FL.txt referenced 3/21/01. 4 Equifax National Decision Systems Custom Summary report prepared for Florida Power Corporation, July 15, 1998. 5 The data lists city departments separately rather than the City of Zephyrhills government as one establishment. 6 Due to the close location of the East Pasco Medical Center, conclusions about establishments and employment for the health services industry should be based on additional research, which was outside of the scope of this project. 7 Five months per year equates to residents arriving at the beginning of November and departing at the end of March. While some residents will stay longer or shorter periods, the average tends to be about five months. 8 The higher spending levels of resource-based tourists may be attributable to the high cost of equipment needed for their activities and may not spill over into other sectors of the economy. 9 Total sales on Main Street are a very small percent of total sales in southeast Pasco County because many industries have no presence on Main Street. 10 The Tampa Bay metropolitan area (Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area) is defined by the Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President, as the four counties of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas. 11 US Census Bureau, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, Supplementary Report on Metropolitan Areas, page 50. 12 US Census Bureau, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, (SU-99-8) Population Estimates for Places (Sorted Alphabetically Within County): Annual Time Series, July 1, 1990 to July 1, 1999 (includes April 1, 1990 Population Estimates Base), http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metrocity/placebyco/SC99T8_FL.txt referenced 3/21/01. 13 Equifax National Decision Systems Custom Summary report prepared for Florida Power Corporation, July 15, 1998. 14 Robertson, Kent, “Planning the future: guiding downtown development.” In Public Management ; June 1999, v.81, 6, 41(3).