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Scenario planning in Santa Elena


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Scenario planning in Santa Elena
Translated Title:
Planeamiento del escenario en Santa Elena ( )
Physical Description:
Monteverde Institute
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Subjects / Keywords:
Stategic planning--Costa Rica--Santa Elena, Monteverde, Puntarenas
Land use
Biological diversity, conservation
Scenario planning
Population projections
conservation guidelines
Sustainable Futures 2002
letter   ( marcgt )


A collection and analysis of information and growth projections for the area of Santa Elena de Monteverde resulting in the development of a base map and three alternative scenarios using the scenario planning process.
Una colección y análisis de la información y proyecciones del crecimiento para el area de Santa Elena de Monteverde el dar lugar al desarrollo de un mapa base y tres alternativas de escenarios usando el proceso de planeamiento del escenario.

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usfldc doi - M37-00007
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[Planeamiento del escenario en Santa Elena]
[Scenario planning in Santa Elena]
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A collection and analysis of information and growth projections for the area of Santa Elena de Monteverde resulting in the development of a base map and three alternative scenarios using the scenario planning process.
Una coleccin y anlisis de la informacin y proyecciones del crecimiento para el area de Santa Elena de Monteverde el dar lugar al desarrollo de un mapa base y tres alternativas de escenarios usando el proceso de planeamiento del escenario.
Stategic planning--Costa Rica--Santa Elena, Monteverde, Puntarenas
Land use
Biological diversity, conservation
Scenario planning
Population projections
conservation guidelines
Sustainable Futures 2002
7 655
Born Digital
1 773
t Sustainable Futures
4 856


ABSTRACT Table on Contents INTRODUCTION Project Goals and Boundary Goals and Objectives Definitions of Monteverde Project Assumptions Boundaries of Santa Elena Scenario Planning BACKGROUND Introduction Scenario Planning and Its Applications Monteverde Area Overview Economic Development Governance and Institutional Structure CONTEXT FOR SCENARIO PLANNING IN SANTA ELENA Introduction Mapping of Santa Elena Introduction Methodology Findings and Analysis of Mapping: Land Uses Development Patterns Population: Growth and Structure Introduction Current Population and Future Growth Population Structure Environmental Conditions (not done) Traffic Study Introduction Methodology Analysis and Findings THE SCENARIOS (etc.) APPENDIX A-1 Factors of Success and Limits of Organization in MVZ A-2 Methods and Protocols for Mapping


1. Introduction Sustainable Futures 2002 is continuing the work of last year in investigating the possible future development of the Monteverde area. This year’s wo rk focuses on Santa Elena, expanding the efforts of last year’s scenario planning in Monteve rde and Cerro Plano. Scenario Planning is a technique for exploring alternative futures of a re gion by asking, “what is likely to happen” given the current conditions and pressures on a region. Sustainable Futures is a course of the Monteverde I nstitute that combines the work and efforts of students and faculties from architecture, landscape architecture, and planning. One of the longterm projects of this course is to create guideline s for conservation and development in the Monteverde Zone that can assist local planning effo rts and also help local people in their understanding of different possibilities and constr aints they have for future development. The district of Monteverde, which includes the Sant a Elena community, has experienced rapid growth over the last few decades, and it is a known fact that the region will keep growing; this is a given. But the direction of the growth and the am ount of community’s influence on it will vary depending on different paths the community chooses. Following the procedure developed in last year’s sc enario planning, the project began with data collection and analyses and growth projections for the area of Santa Elena. This information was used in the development of a base map and three alt ernative scenarios. The opinions of the people in the community were also sought in the pro cess and these insights are incorporated into the scenarios as an informed opinion about what mig ht happen in the area. Sustainable Futures 2002 is continuing the last yea r’s scenario planning work and anticipates that Sustainable Futures 2003 will expand the analysis a nd projections into the surrounding small towns and villages and combine those with two previ ous years’ studies. When completed, the end product will be able to serve the basic informa tion for the communities to make their decisions about the future growth.


PROJECT GOALS AND BOUNDARIES Goals To visualize alternative futures for land use devel opment in Santa Elena To understand the implications for future growth sc enarios on land use, traffic, and environmental carrying capacity To develop design guidelines for conservation and g rowth of the Monteverde Region over the next 20 years. Objectives To understand the historic patterns of land use in Monteverde (Santa Elena) To generate a map of current conditions of Santa El ena sections of the region using existing maps, aerial photographs, field observatio ns, GPS measurements, recollections of long-term residents and any other available reso urces. To develop alternative scenarios for Santa Elena Definitions of Monteverde The use of the word Monteverde can be confusing bec ause it has three distinct but interrelated meanings. Thus, it is important to clarify each def inition before proceeding to better understand the context. Definition 1: smaller area with specific boundary ( from quebrada Maquina to Monteverde reserve). This is the designation of the first year’s work on scenario planning for Monteverde. Definition 2: The district of Monteverde (Distrito de Monteverde) – according to a legal or political boundary, which includes 7 smaller vil lages or communities. One of those 7 smaller villages is the area of Monteverde (Monteve rde 1). Definition 3: The region of Monteverde – according to a demographic, and landscape boundary. It is composed of 16 communities and incl udes all the areas that share the common economic bases This is the definition we are using when we talk about design and conservation guidelines for Monteverde. Project Assumptions Two main assumptions were made to facilitate the pr ocess of future projections and its mapping: The Santa Elena area as well as the Monteverde regi on will continue to grow for the next 20 years The growth rates reflect both the regional and the national trends. If the area experiences faster growth than projecte d, then the scenarios developed for 2020 might occur sooner, and conversely, if it grows slower, t hen what have been projected for 2010 might not happen until 2015 or 2020. Therefore, even if t he scenarios for 2010 and 2020 are projected


based on the historical and current growth patterns they could be viewed flexibly if the growth rate can be adjusted accordingly. Boundaries of Scenario Planning 2002 INSERT MAP WITH STUDY BOUNDARY AREAS MARKED


2. Background INTRODUCTION The proposed scenario planning work of the Sustaina ble Futures course of the Monteverde Institute will cover the broader region of Montever de (Definition 3), which has 16 communities that share the common economic bases. This section will cover some background and context ual issues relevant to the scenario planning work such as a brief explanation of scenario planni ng and background information of the Monteverde region, with a focus on the economic and organizational structures of the region. SCENARIO PLANNING AND ITS APPLICATIONS Scenario planning is a process of building a set of reasonably plausible, but structurally different futures, and is different from visioning since it a sks people what they think might happen rather than what they would like to see happen. The purpos e of the scenario planning lies in highlighting the large-scale forces that push the f uture in different directions, not in pinpointing the future events. Thus, the scenario planning expl ains how an existing situation can evolve under feasible circumstances. Two key elements of t he scenario planning are “givens” and “uncertainties”, and it is crucial to understand an d distinguish between these two. “Givens” tell you about what is bound to happen or “predetermined ” and the “uncertainties” about what might happen. The analysis of these two elements should p recede the scenario development, and different scenarios are going to be built according to various configurations of the major “uncertainties”. Public sector scenario planning is more complicated and difficult to carry out than business scenario development, because it should accommodate a wide variety of goals and ideas including conflicting ones, and also try to match a possible future with a desired future. In the process, planners should get support from top leade rship early on and keep them involved, define a clear mission, seek diverse opinions from the pub lic, conduct fiscal feasibility testing, and finally go public only maturely to seek broader con stituencies. Is the scenario planning an appropriate planning to ol for the Monteverde-Santa Elena region? The answer is yes or at least positive. MonteverdeSanta Elena area has been undergoing quite rapid change: large population influx, increasing n umber of tourists, increasing demand for infrastructures and houses. However, people are unc ertain about how the area will change in the future. The growth the region is experiencing is no t a short-term phenomenon, thus scenario planning that usually deals with mid and long term future is suitable for this region. The region also has diverse community bodies: farmers, Quakers business people, biologists and etc. Each community has different values and some of the valu es conflict with each other. For example, Eco-tourism has both positive and negative effects on the communities and the environment, and represents one of many conflicting values existing in the region. Scenario planning is appropriate for the region, for it analyzes all the givens (con flicting values, situations or existing trends) and


can show all the possible future alternatives given those constrains. The processes of matching possible futures with desired futures in scenario p lanning can gather different goals and objectives of various interest groups with compleme ntary driving forces to produce and recognize possible scenarios. In conclusion, scenario planning is a challenging p rocess, but can be rewarding. Again, wellwritten scenarios alone will not be enough for the sound future development of a community. Thorough and thoughtful scenario planning accompani ed by cooperation and coordination among the members of the community will result in a better future for the community MONTEVERDE Overview The region of Monteverde, Costa Rica is located in the mountain range of Tilaran, where the three providences of Guanacaste, Alajuela and Punta renas meet. It has a low residential density and is difficult to access since the topography is steep. The sizes of the farms are small between 10-50 hectares, and the land is fairly distributed in general. Monteverde has a relatively mild climate, with temp eratures that tend to be cooler than those in other parts of the country because of its location at high elevation. The climate of Monteverde is dominated by three primary seasons as opposed to th e two found in much of the rest of the country; the standard wet and dry season are comple mented by a third transition season. The wet season lasts from May to October, and is characteri zed by clear sky in the mornings with clouds and precipitation arriving in the afternoon, while the transition season occurs between November and January, characterized by strong northeasterly trade winds accompanied by rain and mist during both the day and night. Finally, the dry se ason lasts from November to April, with clear weather during the day and wind driven mist at nigh t Monteverde has nearly 6500 residents who live in ab out 16 communities: the three communities of Santa Elena-Cerro Plano-Monteverde function as t he urban center and are located at elevations of 1250-1300 m on the Pacific side of th e Tilaran. Its ample middle class characterizes the region as well as very high literacy level and among the residents who are over 12 years old, only 4% was illiterate (clinic data 2001). Potable water, healthy dwellings and electric light are available. The communities of Monteverde are located around a protected area of more than 20,000 hectares of primary forest, and the areas are being administered by various organizations such as private reserves, and have been converted into an a ttraction for the eco-tourism The region is a product of a cultural mixture. The first colonists came around 1920. They were the farmers who came from the central Meseta, and l ooking for new lands to cultivate. In 1951, 12 families of North American Quakers immigrated to the country. They were looking for a peaceful and quiet place to live in and work in. Ar ound 1970,students and professional biologists began to arrive to conduct investigation s in the areaand some remained as residents. From 1985, immigrants with various nationalities ha ve been attracted to the area looking for jobs in conservation and tourism to support a rapid incr ease in visitors to the forest reserves.


Economic Development In 1950s, two important seeds for the social and ec onomic development of the region were planted. One, the Quakers established a cheese fa ctory. Two, they set aside a part of their territory, the river basin of the Rio Guacimal, as a reserve for the their water supply. They called the place Bosque Eterno. Cheese Factory: The factory created a market for t he product of the zone, and formed the most important base of the local economy until the arriv al of tourism in 1985. The cheese factory, Producers of Monteverde, S.A. was created by the milk producers to provide the market with milk. It was conceived as a company with a pursuit of profits. The company produces the European style cheese with high quality, and brings revenues. Virtually all the milk producers and the employees of the company are shareholders ( or stakeholders). It started as a very small scale and has grown step-by-step adjusting the avai lability of milk, market, capital and human resources. Bosque Eterno: From 1970s on, the river basin, in addition to serving as the water supply, has served as a place for scientific studies. Eventual ly the basin formed the nucleus of the Monteverde Cloud Forest, and has been converted int o the base for the eco-tourism. Starting from 1985, the tourism and the conservatio n began to have important economic impacts. International foundations came in to buy lands for conservation purposes. Also the number of visitors to the reserve experienced accelerated inc rease. This situation created a massive expansion in the availability of jobs, and encourag ed the immigration, the construction of new hotels and restaurants, the establishment of privat e reserves as well as an increase in social problems. Currently, the five principle sources of employment in this region are: 1) Tourism 2) Commerce 3) Transportation 4) Agriculture and Dairy and 5) A rts and Crafts. Unemployment rate is 9.5% (clinic Data 2001). This figure varies according to the time of the year, for the principle sources of work are related to the tourism, which usually p resents periodic fluctuation. Economic necessities and the tourism boom in the region keep the majority of Colegio students (secondary school) from finishing their studies. Governance and Institutions Monteverde is an example of the self-regulated (or auto-controlled) development if it keeps its slow and consistent process of increasing the capac ity of its leaders and its local governments. This is the organizational history of Monteverde The development of the organizations Monteverde has been characterized by its isolated l ocation in a zone at the intersection of various political jurisdictions exist. This, together with the zone's own historical and cultural factors, ha s driven the formation of the organizations that look for the solutions to the needs of their members. (The following section is based on work b y Joseph Stuckey, 1999 )


During the decades of 1950s and 1960s, the cheese f actory was the principle local organization and the economic pillar of the zone, and functioned as a small municipality. It was the first base organization of the zone. It was democratic, member s friendly, and above all, successful. It created a precedent for other organizations that ca me later. It commercialized the milk, organized the maintenance of the roads, and made donations to help out schools and other civic matters. During the same period, the savings and credit unio n was formed, and lasted about 15 years. Also, the town meeting of the Quakers and other res idents worked hard to improve the road systems, potable water, electricity, mails, and loc al telephones in the central Monteverde. During the decade of seventies, the cooperation of multiple services (COOPE), technical school for professional farming (Colegio Tecnico Profesion al Agropecuario), and a clinic (clinica) were created. Also, various associations of the developm ent were formed in response to a promotion program supported by the nation During the decades of 1980s and 1990s, there was a proliferation of new organizations. These organizations had diverse objectives such as educat ion, tourism, planning, financial intermediaries, production and conservation. The tradition of forming a committee and self-manag ing is strong in the region. The chart A-1 (see Appendix 1) summarizes the phases of the devel opment process in Monteverde, and show the variety and magnitude of the organizations that Monteverde utilize to help its process of development. Characteristics of Organizations The development process of Monteverde is characteri zed by the culture of self-government and collaboration. The organizations of Monteverde repr esent the auto-regulating instruments for their members. Each organization achieves one goal and drives certain quotas of power. Their members are the maximum authority of these local or ganizations and through their general meetings, the organizations control their performan ce. (The following section is again based on study done by Joseph Stuckey, 1999 ). A resident can be affiliated to one or various othe r organizations. For this reason, there exists quite a degree of “overlap” in the membership. This totality of the institutions provides the residents with an ample range of “levers” for the f uture management of the community. The majority of the organizations are directed by a Board of Directors (Juntas Directivas) composed of the citizens who contribute their time voluntarily. All the organizations started in small scale. The organizations that manage signific ant amount of capital these days have gone through a process of professionalizing, and pay com petitive salaries. Those organizations that cannot count on their own and stable incomes are op erated by volunteers. Even though only a relatively small portion of the population becomes active in the organizations in any given moment, the cumulative effect is important. Through the years, many people have been capable of participating in the leadership process The organizations participate in a dynamic process of competition and cooperation. Although they often have conflicts due to different interest s or power-struggles, in the long term, they


share certain interests. To find solutions to those common interests, they form alliances constantly. The duration and level of the cooperati on among organizations vary: from simply sharing information to signing formal pacts to real ize projects that last many years. Factors of success and limits Some factors have facilitated the development proce ss of Monteverde while others impede the progress of the region. For example, the fact that the people of the region have respect for dialog and different viewpoints helps the communities to a dvance while the difficulty of distributing justly the costs of the cooperation causes less coo peration among different interest groups, and thus delays the processes of various projects neede d. (More factors of success and limits are described in the Appendix A-2). Current Trends and Future Recently, a Consejo (the local government) became l egal starting from March of 2002. It will be able to collect taxes in the district of Monteverde from December of the same year. It was founded around 1999 with a goal of independent muni cipality. Monteverde has been under control of the province of Puntarenas, and paying t axes to the municipality. The problem has been that the residents of Monteverde have not been given much benefit from the taxes they paid to the municipality of Puntarenas. Therefore, the C onsejo of Monteverde was created primarily to serve better its own residents by managing the r esources more efficiently. Before the recent formation and authorization of th e Consejo, the Asociacin de Desarrollo de Santa Elena has been the principal organization to serve the various social needs of the communities such as maintaining roads, keeping up s port events, providing students with scholarships and etc. Currently, it has over 800 me mbers with a board of nine persons, and the participation among its members is very active. So far, it has worked closely with other local organizations such as Camara de Turismo and AYA, an d the organization also wants to cooperate with new Consejo to make Santa Elena a be tter community. The process of a town or village’s development is t he product of the constant interaction among the positive and negative factors. Any success or f ailure is temporal. There is no guarantee that the achievements of the Monteverde case will just c ontinue. The understanding and cooperation between different organizations, and community memb ers will be the keys to the continuous success of institutional system of the area.


3. Context for Scenario Planning in Santa Elena INTRODUCTION There are a number of data sets required to develop alternative scenarios for any place. One of the most important is a series of historical maps t hat will demonstrate changes over time. Additionally, population data is required to make p rojections for future growth. This section is divided into four major categories that are most relevant to the development of scenarios: mapping and development patterns, popula tion, environmental conditions, and traffic. In each category, how the data was collected, what were the findings, and finally what are the implications from those data are explained in detai l. MAPPING OF SANTA ELENA Introduction In order to produce the actual physical conditions of future development, historical and current growth patterns of the town were necessary. For thi s project, a historical review of the growth patterns over the last 30 years preceded using 1984 1986, and 1992 maps. Then a 2002 map of Santa Elena was created by SF 2002 students. The cr eation of a map as well as reviewing the historical maps made possible for students to ident ify the current and historical land-use patterns on which the future projection was based. Methodology Historical Maps : The corrected version of 1984-1986 map of Monteve rde/Cerro Plano/Santa Elena completed by a student of last year as well a s 1992 map of Monteverde/ Santa Elena were used to identify the development patterns and chang es over time. (See Appendix 3 for more detail). Santa Elena 2002 Map : The 2002 map of Santa Elena was constructed by t he students of Sustainable Futures 2002 by updating the 1992 map t hrough field observations and interviews with local people who live in the area. All the st udents in the Sustainable Futures program were divided into groups of 3 to 4 people to walk throug h to community and record any changes since 1992 on the 1992 map. Based on the first field data collected by all the students, two students updated the 1992 map for the section of Santa Elena using auto CAD. This pr oduced the first on-the-ground observations. A group of students went around in groups of two to double check the existing data collected, by comparing a printout with the actual landscape on f oot. The map was redrawn noting building size and the actual number of homes under each roof It was set in such a way that each door with a lock represented a home ( we used the existe nce of a locked door to designate a single home).


In AutoCAD, the person who drew up a section’s corr ections was responsible to put that part of the data into the computer so that there would not be any misinterpretation of the data. Initially the data collection was done separately from interp reting the information and putting it into computers. This left some errors and problems for the corrections. For split-levels, the rectangle was split with a di agonal line to show there were two residences or commercial spaces, etc. Commercial was filled in w ith solid hatching and sometimes with other hatching to delineate split-levels. These symbols were further defined as the final mapping work was completed. GPS : A group of students were divided into two to col lect the data using different GPS units. To test the percent error between the units, a land mark was created at the water tank outside of the Cerro Plano and the differences in coordinates were noted. A certain percentage error was due to the accuracy differences of the each unit. T he procedure for collecting data was consistent between groups. (See Appendix 3 for protocol). Topographic Map : The purpose for constructing this map is to have an accurate, scaled topography map of Santa Elena in AutoCAD. The map will be used for mapping out watersheds within the Santa Elena area for the purpose of loca ting water treatment facilities and calculating total volumes of storm water and gray water. (See Appendix 3 for detailed protocol and summary of Water Feasibility Study.) [Note: for final, we need to include section on GIS ] Findings and Analysis: Land Use After completing the 2002 map, it was possible to i dentify and compare different types of land use over time. The building structures in each map were counted and divided into four different categories: Residential, Commercial, Institutional and Other. Residential represents all the private housing unit s. Commercial corresponds to the buildings used for any type of business activity including ho tels. Institutional represents all the public buildings such as post office, schools, and etc. Ot her records any building structure that does not belong to any of above three categories. Below is t he chart summarizing the change in the number of structures in Santa Elena over time. Time Period Residential Commercial Institutional Other Total 1984-87 58 3 5 4 70 1992 179 47 5 5 235 2002 361 96 6 9 472 Table 3-1. nnr nnn


As one can see from the above chart, the number of the structures, regardless of its type, in Santa Elena has substantially increased over the years. 1986 1992 2001/2002 Monteverde 70 84 142 Cerro Plano 31 87 141 Santa Elena 60 169 361 Total 161 340 644 Table 3-2. Numbers of Housing For the purpose of comparison, the Table 2 outlines the numbers of residential units in Monteverde, Cerro Plano and Santa Elena in 1986, 19 92 and 2001/2002. As you can see, Santa Elena has always had higher residential densities a nd currently represents 127 percentages more than the combined housing units in Cerro Plano and Monteverde. In other words, it serves as an urban center of the region. The chart below shows graphically the historical nu mbers and future projection of residential units in three areas: Monteverde, Cerro Plano and S anta Elena. The future projection of housing units was done in the same manner as the population projection, the method of which will be explained in detail in the population section. Ther e will be also an increase in other types of structures in Santa Elena, for population increase will demand more areas for commercial activity and extra capacity of institutions such as schools and other public buildings. The implication on these structures will be investigate d further also under the population section. Historical and Future Housing Units70 84 142 232 331 31 87 141 230 329 60 169 361 503 690 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 19861992200220102020 YearsHousing Units Monteverde Cerro Plano Santa Elena Chart 3-1. Residential Projections and Comparisons


DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS Students examined and analyzed the current differen t development patterns of Santa Elena to understand the typology of building types and their generic spatial relationships. First, four different types of patterns were identi fied and studied in depth: overall landscape and vegetation patterns of the area; residential patter ns looking at topography, housing units, boundary, lot, architectural design patterns of the housings; institutional patterns; and commercial patterns. After all the important patterns were identified an d presented visually, a series of decisions were made regarding the use of these patterns in the dev elopment of future scenarios including, what would be the most plausible and desirable future de velopment patterns, and what can be changed and what cannot. rrnnn !"##r!r!n$rn!n"$rn%n!n!&rnnr'!n(n)*n'$n$n)+')#nn,"rnnn,(nnn',(nr"r,.%n,(nn%(n'$rn/#nnrn-n!-nn!0n&n1nn&(2


POPULATION: GROWTH AND STRUCTURE Introduction Santa Elena has experienced rapid population growth partly due to the big increase in ecotourism in Monteverde-Santa Elena area. Plausible future scenarios were built upon the reasonable population growth analysis and its proje ction, which will be explored here in detail. Current population and future growth Calculation and Projection : First, the numbers of housing units of 1986, 1992 a nd 2002 were counted using the historical maps as well as 2002 map created by Sustainable Fut ure 2002 students (see Table 3-2). Then, the population figures for these years were calculated from the numbers of housing units assuming that each housing unit is composed of six family me mbers (see Table 3-3). 1986 1992 2002 Housing Units 60 169 361 Population 360 1014 2166 Table 3-3. Number of Residential Units and Populati on To project the future population, calculation of th e growth rates was necessary. Unfortunately, the population data for specific Santa Elena area w ere not available from the national census, and thus alternative way of calculating growth rate had to be sought. Based on the population figures obtained from the n umbers of housing units for 1986, 1992, and 2002, the population growth rates for those periods (1986~1992 and 1992~2002) were calculated: 18.8% for 1986-1992 and 7.9% for 1992-2 002. Then, the population growth rates for 2010 and 2020 were projected using the historical g rowth rate figures of Santa Elena and the national growth rate trends. Following points are n ecessary to understand the rate of growth used for the future projection: The population of Santa Elena grows exponentially a t decreasing rate as it has historically (based on data, and national trends) The rate of growth changes over time. For Santa Ele na, the growth rates were calculated to be 5.9% for the period 2002-2010 and 4.7% from 2 011 to 2020. The rates were adjusted to reflect the national tre nds. (See Appendix 3). The following chart compares the population over ti me in Santa Elena as compared with Montverde and Cerro Plano. It also projects the po pulation in this region into 2010 and 2020 based on our calculations as described above.


1986 1992 2001/2002 2010 2020 Monteverde 420 504 852 1392 1986 Cerro Plano 186 522 846 1380 1974 Santa Elena 360 1014 2166 3430 5507 Total 966 2040 3864 6202 9467 Table 3-4. Population Trends and Projection Note: The figures for the future population of Mont everde and Cerro Plano were from the last year’s scenario planning study. If the current population trends continue, the regi on of Monteverde, Cerro Plano and Santa Elena will have over 6,000 people in 2010 and almost 10,0 00 inhabitants by 2020. Population Projections 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 19861992200220102020 YearPopulation Monteverde Cerro Plano Santa Elena Chart 3-2. Population Projection


Population structure Aside from the total size, the most important demog raphic characteristic of a population is its age and sex structure, or the proportion of people at e ach age, by sex. The age-sex structure is important because it determines potential for futur e growth of specific age groups, as well as the total population. For these reasons, the age struct ure has meaningful government policy implications. For example, a population of young pe ople needs a sufficient number of schools and, later, enough jobs to accommodate them. On the other hand, countries with a large portion of older people must expand their retirement plans and medical systems to serve them. Therefore, depending on the structure of population needs vary from childcare and schools to jobs, housing, and medical care. A Population Pyramid is one way to look at the age and sex distribution of population in an area. The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the pote ntial for future growth. The following four representations of population age-sex structure sho ws how different levels of population growth would look – rapid growth, slow growth, zero growth and negative growth. As a population ages, it normally goes through these four phases. Chart 3-3. Stages of Population Structure Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects The 1998 Revision The following tables represent the age-sex structur e of Santa Elena and Costa Rica. The age-sex composition data for Santa Elena were obtained from the annual clinic report, and the data for the nation from the U.S. Census. Both pyramids represent a relatively young populati on with their wide bases and narrow tops. These shapes can be the result of high birth rates that add more and more people into the lower portions of the pyramids and in turn shrink the rel ative proportion at the oldest ages. In addition, the death rate declines as a society develops, as i s the case for both Santa Elena and Costa Rica as a whole. This further widens the base of the pyr amid by allowing more people to survive to the reproductive ages and beyond. While birth and death rates mostly determine the ba sic pyramid shape, migration also affects it. Typically, most migrants are in the working ages, a nd often more males than females migrate across national borders. Maybe that is why the pyra mids for both Santa Elena and Costa Rica have wider middle parts than the typical rapid grow th pyramids: Santa Elena as well as Costa Rica as a whole has experienced a rapid growth in t ourism, which attracts migration from other parts of the world.


Population Structure: Santa Elena vs. Costa Rica Population11.22 10.32 8.22 7.85 5.81 2.94 2.27 -12.06 -10.65 -9.59 -8.55 -5.71 -2.51 -2.30 -15.00-10.00- 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+Agepercentage Female Pop by % Male Pop by % Chart 3-4. Population Pyramid – Santa Elena Population StructureCosta Rica-15-10-5051015 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+AgePercentage % female % male Chart 3-5. Population pyramid – Costa Rica


rrn Change in population has significance other than th e mere increase or decrease in future population: it shapes the path of commercial and in stitutional growth. Commercial growth : As the population of an area grows, so does the b usiness grow, and vice versa. In order to see the big picture of future sc enarios, projection of businesses as well as population was necessary. The commercial growth was projected with the same growth rates with which population projection was calculated. In general, commercial growth follows population growth since more people means that they need more jobs to accommodate them. However, some businesses such as hotels and/or othe r tour-related industries will be more affected by other factors, and so will be the popul ation by increase or decrease in immigration. Therefore, it will be safe enough to project the co mmercial growth following the population growth. Again, 5.9% for the period 2002-2010 and 4. 7% from 2011 to 2020 were the growth rates used. As one can see from the table 3-5, the commercial structures in Santa Elena grew quite substantially in the past, and will keep grow ing to accommodate the growth of the area. 1986 1992 2002 2010 2020 #s of Commercial Structures 3 47 96 152 244 Table 3-5. Historical and Projected Numbers of Commercial Structures Schools: As a population becomes larger, the sizes and/or n umbers of institutions such as schools, clinics, and other public structures shoul d increase as well to facilitate the services needed by the increased population. Historically, t he number of institutions has not increased dramatically as other structures have. This may be due to the unique characteristics that pubic buildings have: in many cases, they do not increase their capacity by constructing new buildings, but rather by expanding the existing facilities. As explained earlier in the population section, the age structure of the Monteverde region indicates th at there will be rapid growing numbers of young population due to wider bottom areas. This im plies that the area will need more schools and jobs to accommodate all the future students and job candidates. Commercial growth was already projected following the population-growing pattern. Here, the future numbers of students were projected using both the growth rate and age p ercentage figures of the population (see table 3-6). 2002 2010 2020 Elementary 509 796 1279 Colegio 317 592 817 Total 826 1388 2096 Table 3-6. Number of Students: Current and Future


Currently, approximately 800 students (509primary school, 317Colegio) are in the schools in the Santa Elena area according to the school survey done by the students. This means that by 2010 there will be 1390 students, and by 2020, 2100 (See Chart 3-6). Students Projections0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2002 2010 2020 YearsNumber of Students Elementary Schools Colegio Chart 3-6. Projected Number of Students for 2010 an d 2020 The additional necessary numbers of classrooms to c hannel them were calculated assuming that average numbers of students are 20 for Elementary s chools and 29 for Colegio (See Table 3-7). As one can see from the table below, by 2010 the co mmunity will need 25 additional classrooms to accommodate the increased number of students and by 2020, 56 more. The interviews with school personnel suggest that there will be no new school in next 20 years, but more classrooms will be added to current schools in the area. 2010 2020 #S of Classroom 2002 Total Required Additional to be built Total Required Additional to be built Elementary 26 41 15 65 39 Colegio 11 21 10 28 17 Table 3-7. Projected number of classrooms


ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS Environmental conditions in the Monteverde region a re generally good. In terms of quality of life as reported in the Clinic Reports, 93% of peop le are living in good condition, but 5% live in poor condition with old or deteriorated buildings, putting these families' securities in danger. As a general measure of well-being, it is reported tha t 67% of people in their own house, and 29% in rent, and the other 4% in borrowed houses. Growing tourism and population are affecting the re gion’s environment substantially, and water availability and water treatment will soon become a major problem. AYA and its Agua Pura magazine estimate a doubling of demand for water ov er the next 20 years and as many know, there have been already times in some parts of the community where water shortage has been experienced. For more detailed information about i ssues of water, refer to the Water Feasibility Study prepared by Sustainable Futures 2002. Some features of the Region are: Potable Water and Electricity: 100% of its residen ts get services of electricity and potable water Black Water Treatment: The majority of its residen ts (520/530) use septic tank for disposition of their excretion rather than using ou tside bathroom (letrina) Solid Waste Disposal: In terms of trash collection of the 530 questioned residents, 78% utilize the public collection service, and the othe r 22 % either burried and burned their garbage. More people are getting aware of the impor tance of the appropriate management of solid waste. Greywater and Stormwater: Even though the overall condition of sanitation in this area is quite good, there exists a big problem with used wa ter (grey/ black water). There is no appropriate drainage system for this used water, wh ich in most cases just run through the edges of the roads until it reaches the corners of the area, and becomes an important source of environmental contamination.


TRAFFIC STUDY There can be no discussion of the future of Santa E lena and the Monteverde Zone without some understanding of the issue of traffic, cars, roads, and so on. In North America, cars have been the single most important creators of settlement pa tterns. Most of these patterns, we have come to realize, have been destructive of environmental systems, agricultural lands, and have created living conditions of such low density in suburban a reas that it is difficult to provide sufficient services to the population except at great cost. T hese issues of “sprawl” do not even address the consequences of the car itself in terms of pollutio n and deaths (50,000 people each year die as a result of cars in the U.S.). In the Monteverde Zone, cars have also become a det ermining factor in the creation of the landscape both in terms of accommodating the cars t hrough better roads and the need for parking; and also on terms of mobility and the abil ity or inability to walk through the zone. To more clearly understand the position of cars, th e Sustainable Futures 2002 group did a brief traffic survey that gives traffic counts at various locations during certain times of the day. This study is not a full traffic study and should n ot be confused with the type of study that would need to be done if a truly scientific analysis of t raffic is desired. It is more like a snap-shot, a photograph, of the patterns during a short period o f time. It is limited by the number of observations and further, by the time of the year t he study was taken since early June is in a transition period and neither high nor low season. Methodology The study identified seven sites according to the p roximity to important end routes, major intersections, and important areas of increasing de velopment: Tilaran/ Reserva Intersection, New Santa Elena Clinic, Downtown Santa Elena, Toll Boot h from Los Llanos to Santa Elena/ Monteverde, Monteverde Shortcut/ Main Road to Santa Elena, Monteverde Cheese Factory, Friends School. (See map) The sites were also de veloped to obtain a broad view of how the flow of traffic changes according to proximity to t he Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve. All objects on the road were counted as traffic on the road. Not all of the objects are motor vehicles, nor should be considered such. In this c ontext, traffic is considered anything that uses the roadway and should be considered in road/traffi c issues for the scenario planning of the Santa Elena area. The categories and definitions are as follows: SUV : Standard Sport Utility Vehicle; including pick-u p trucks. Moto: Two-wheeled motorcycle. Pedestrian: Person/people on foot. Car: Standard four-wheeled non sport vehicle. Truck: Trucks larger than pick-up style; including milk trucks and semi-trucks. Taxi: Any vehicle marked as a taxi. ATV: All Terrain Vehicles; also called "four-wheelers." Microbus: Small-sized buses, usually marked "Tourismo," bu t larger than SUV's.


Big Bus: Standard sized bus used for any purpose other th an public transportation (usually tourism). Public Bus: Standard sized bus used for "community" public t ransportation. Bicycle: Non-motorized bicycle. Horse: Any horse occupied by a rider. Dog: Whatever kind crosses your path! Other: Any vehicle or object on the road that doesn't fit clearly into a category, but should be counted. Please note what the object is. The number of objects was counted according to the direction, with four directions possible at the intersection sites and two directions possible at the remaining sites. Tally sheets were developed incorporating the number of possible dire ctions for each site, weather conditions, road conditions, and collector (See Appendix 2 for sampl e data collection sheet). Traffic was counted at three times during the day: 7:00-7:30 am, 12:00-12:30 pm, and 5-5:30 pm, for three days (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday). The three times represent periods of important travel, due to residents traveling to wor k, school, etc. Traffic was counted for a 30minute period. All final traffic count data were co mpiled into a spreadsheet for graphic analysis and presentation. Analyses and Implications The seven sites of observation and the actual numbe rs of cars passing each location are recorded on the chart below. (the image of map should be inc luded) Site 1 Tilaran/ Reserva Intersection 104 Site 2 New Santa Elena Clinic 108 Site 3 Downtown Santa Elena 544 Site 4 Toll Booth from Los Llanos to Santa Elena/ M onteverde 62 Site 5 Monteverde Shortcut/ Main Road to Santa Elen a 126 Site 6 Monteverde Cheese Factory 163 Site 7 Friends School 77 Total 1184


Traffic counts Pedestrian 38% SUV 26% Moto 19% Truck 5% Microbus 4% ATV 3% Car 2% Horse 1% Big Bus 1% Bicycle 1% Other 0% Public Bus 0% Pedestrian SUV Moto Truck Microbus ATV Car Big Bus Bicycle Horse Other Public Bus Chart 3-7. All Counts As the data show, the most dominant form of transpo rtation in Santa Elena and Monteverde is walking. SUV’s and motos come next, and account for nearly two thirds of all other traffic means except walking (See Chart 3-7). The dominance of SUV’s rather than cars coincides with the fact that the road is not paved and its surface is rough or muddy most of time. Also, the large percentage of Motos may imply future increase in tr affic accidents after the pavement of the road.


Traffic counts without pedestrians SUV 43% Truck 7% Microbus 7% ATV 5% Car 4% Big Bus 1% Bicycle 1% Horse 1% Other 0% Public Bus 0% Moto 31% SUV Moto Truck Microbus ATV Car Big Bus Bicycle Horse Other Public Bus Chart 3-8. All Counts without Pedestrians The average volume of traffic is considerably highe r in downtown Santa Elena (see Chart 3-9), and this explains the currently crowded traffic in downtown Santa Elena area. Currently, the road pavement is in the process, and this is likely to c ontribute to the increase in the amount of traffic around this area. The data were taken in June, which is low season. A n increase of near 25% during the high season is expected. Also, following the population trends, the volume of traffic are expected to increase 1.6 times more than the current traffic am ount in 2010, and 2.4 times in 2020. In summary, traffic will increase as population and tourism grow. The paving of the road is not likely to ease the situation if the experience of o ther countries can serve as a guide. Rather, it is likely to cause an increase of traffic.


Traffic by Volume 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 site 1site 2site3site4site5site6site7 PlaceCount 7:00am 12:00noon 5:00pm daily Chart 3-9. Location of Traffic by Volume


The Scenarios Scenario Planning relies on projections into the fu ture of what “might happen” if the current trends and conditions continue, or if some communit y action is taken to change the current trajectory. As stated earlier, scenario planning i s not master planning, it does not outline what “ought to be done.” Rather it gives a community a sense of alternative futures that they can, in some way, influence. For the Santa Elena Scenario Planning work this yea r, the Sustainable Futures 2002 group established three different scenarios. We basicall y used the same three we had used last year although the details of each have changed to reflec t the more urban and dense condition of Santa Elena. All of the scenarios assume a similar growt h rate of approximately 5.91% for 2002-2010 and 4.73% for 2011-2020. This means that each of the scenarios has added the same number of dwelling units, new commercial structures, and a si milar number of institutional buildings. This is a very important point because it means that the re are different ways to achieve the same kind of growth. In the actual design, the numbers of units added to Santa Elena in the 2010 and 2020 projections are the figures projected with assumption that ther e will be no emigration into other areas. 1986 1992 2002 2010 2020 Residential 60 169 361 503 690 Commercial 3 47 96 152 244 Table 4-1. Structure Projections for the base of Sc enarios Note: Institutional growth does not following popul ation, residential, and commercial growth patterns. Historically, the number of institutions has been of little change or stable over the time. Institutions tend to increase their capacity withou t adding new structures, but rather by expanding the existing arrangements. These growth projections, as all future projections will be distorted. For example, it might be that the area has reached a point of relative stabi lity and the growth rate will drop to about 2% to 3% in the next 15-20 years. Or conversely, there m ay be another large increase in the future. In both of these cases, the population projection figu res might be exaggerated or underestimated.. In developing the scenarios, we tried to respect ex isting topography, current forest cover and river streams as much as possible. However, we did not address property boundaries and therefore we apologize to all of you whose property we have h ypothetically developed without your permission The process is about ideas, not about proposals; in reality, there are no proposals to develop anyone property at this tim e.


One additional limitation of our study: We did not explore “carrying capacity”; that is, how many people Santa Elena ought to have given the limitations of water, transporta tion, public services and so on. A carrying capacity is not a real limit in that areas can growth beyond their capacity to take care of a population. However, wh en this occurs, the cost is environmental degradation, joblessness, and so on. Three different scenarios for the future growth and development of Santa Elena were developed according to various configurations of the major “u ncertainties”. All three scenarios share the same givens such as population growth and road pave ment. Therefore, analysis of givens and uncertainties preceded the scenario development. Al l three scenarios rely on the following “givens” pertaining to Santa Elena and to Monteverd e area: Population growth: modified to reflect the national trend as well as historical trend. 5.91% growth rate for 2002-2010 and 4.73% ra te for 2011-2020 were used to project population growth as well as commercial and traffic growth. Topography of the region Rich natural amenities Limited natural resources including water Growing popularity of the Monteverde region as a ce nter of eco-tourism Diverse composition of population in the zone: Quak ers, farmers, immigrants from other parts, and etc. Sharing the common givens above, the three scenario s for Santa Elena developed by the Sustainable Futures 2002 course are: 1. “Business as Usual” This scenario assumes that the type of growth and t he patterns of development will continue into the future with no community interven tion or direction to change them. 1. “Ecotourism and Conservation” This scenario is based on a goal of maintaining and improving the conditions in the Monteverde region so that its position as a tourist destination is assured. This means making land use and planning decisions that maintai n environmental quality and preserving the forest. 1. “Diversification” This scenario also relies on eco-tourism as one mai n economic engine but seeks ways to diversity the economy so that it is more stable and robust. It further explores diversity in types of housing, in the kinds of educational oppor tunities, and so on.


SCENARIO 1: “BUSINESS AS USUAL” The “Business as Usual” scenario takes the historic al patterns of development and projects them into the future. It assumes no intervention in ter ms of planning, and assumes that individual landowners will make decisions in their own best in terest. Through empirical observations and interviews, we h ave established the following development patterns in Santa Elena that we will follow in this scenario (see section on development patterns for more elaboration). Overall Patterns 1. More than one center or downtown 2. Growth out of urban area into surrounding area; for example, into the Cemeterio and neighboring communities 3. Traffic congestion and lack of parking in the cente r 4. Public Facilities scattered through out the communi ty 5. Second Story’s developed in the densest areas such as the commercial center 6. Building Codes not enforced Residential 1. Subdivision of larger properties into small lots. 2. Small lots (10.5 M x 20 M) located along roads. 3. Houses behind houses climbing up or down a hill wit h no road access. 4. Dead-end developments – disconnected roads with hou ses on both sides Commercial and Institutional 1. Reuse of houses as commercial and institutional bui ldings 2. Commercial and Residential combined with living and workshop in the same structure 3. Some Commercial and Institutional buildings are loc ated on separate lots with their own land surrounding them (clinic, municipal building, schools); others are a part of the urban fabric (police station; AyA). Environmental Conditions 1. Individual septic systems for houses and businesses often with insufficient drainage fields 2. Gray water discharged directly into the street and streams 3. Storm water runs directly into streams; potential f looding and land slides 4. Buildings within 15 meters of streams, sometimes ov er and in the stream itself 5. Pollution of streams with fecal chloroform (SP), se diments and trash 6. Cutting of forest and trees for development 7. Streets dusty in dry season and muddy in wet season The following maps offer some ideas about developme nt in 2010 and 2020 given the above development patterns.


SCENARIO 1.1 TRAFFIC CONGESTION: THE FUTURE OF THE CENTER This scenario uses the development patterns and sug gests what one vision of the downtown area might look like. It is likely that there will be i ncreased development of commercial and institutional facilities, which in turn will create more traffic congestion. If the pattern follows North American processes, building might be torn do wn to provide places for parking which means there will be “holes” in the urban fabric. SCENARIO 1.2 UNPLANNED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT: HIGHER LEVELS OF CONTAMINATION The current patterns of having small lots with each house having its own septic system and discharging the gray water into the street is likel y to continue without any community intervention. The advantage of small lots is that it increases density and preserves forest and agricultural lands. But this is only an advantage if there is proper treatment for both black water (sufficient space for leachate fields) and gray wat er treatment so that the used water does not run down the streets into the streams, causing problems of odor and contamination. Projection of volume of Greywater in Drainage Basin #1 Santa Elena Futbol Field Area Volume in Liters % Increase 2002 54,740 2010 121,975 122.83% 2020 135,660 11.22%* *Decrease in volume reflects fact that area is like ly to be developed between 2002 and 2010 and very few new structures can be built after that tim e. SCENARIO 1.3 INCREASED STORMWATER CONTRIBUTES TO FLOODING The increase in structures and roads creates more i mpervious surfaces in the town. This means that during storms, the water runs more quickly ove r the surface and less is absorbed into the soil where it can be cleaned before releasing into the g roundwater and streams. As an example of what could occur, we looked closel y at the futbol field area that is the lowest point in one of the four drainage basins in Santa E lena. This area is currently holding a lot of the


storm water, which infiltrates into the soil and is also released into the Quebrada Rodriquez. As the football field is improved through filling and grading, there will be less and less surface for water infiltration and no holding area for slow rel ease into the stream. With additional impervious surfaces, it is likely that area will ex perience frequent flooding by storm water mixed with gray water unless there is some intervention.


SCENARIO 2: “ECO-TOURISM AND CONSERVATION” In this second scenario, Sustainable Futures 2002 i s assuming that the existing economic base of eco-tourism will continue for the next 15-20 years. In order to remain competitive in the country with the increase in eco-tourism opportunities, the area has sought to reinforce its image as a conservation minded community. Without attention t o the issues of conservation, it is possible that the area could see a decrease in tourism becau se of the perception of contamination and loss of forest. This is as important in Santa Elena as it is in Monteverde and Santa Elena becomes more and more in the center of tourist opportunitie s. This is not a new idea in the zone and there has be en much talk about the importance of maintaining the image of forest and cleanliness. F urther, the expansion of opportunities for tourist to experience the forest demonstrates that growth in the area is possible. However, to achieve the image of conservation while at the same time maintaining and viable and vibrant urban center requires careful considera tion of development. The following are patterns that might be engaged to maintain and expa nd the sense of green ecology. Overall Patterns:


1. Enforce existing environmental laws; they are very good laws. 2. Create a “green structure” using street trees and p arks that runs through the town of Santa Elena that connects the forest on the outs ide to the new green spaces on the inside; this green structure can reinforce the biological corridors and bring wildlife through the town. 3. Create paths and public access along the stream cor ridors to create more diverse experiences for people in the town and to avoid wal king on the street where possible. 4. Initiate a viable local transportation system so th at local people and tourist do not have to use their cars to access sites of interest, to do errands or to take children to school. Resident Patterns: 1. Increase the amount of vegetation in the residentia l areas by planting street trees and occasional windbreaks. 2. Build on appropriate lot sizes for proper sanitatio n or develop community collection and treatment systems 3. Develop neighborhood centers in sections of the cit y that are connected to downtown. Commercial and Institutional Patterns: 1. Create a “tourist” section near new green areas tha t is connected to downtown. 2. Develop new, smaller commercial opportunities as bu siness starters 3. Create new parks and plazas in downtown 4. Add vegetation downtown to add shade, decrease impe rvious surfaces and control dust. Environmental Conditions: 1. Decrease and eliminate contamination by gray water and black water through proper treatment. 2. Use green structure to help clean the environment a nd add biodiversity in the town itself. SCENARIO 2.1: ECO VILLAGE Expand the tourist industry by adding a concentrate d area for eco-tourist development that includes hotels, cabinas, parks, and informati on center. Locate this along the regenerated stream corridor of Rio Sucio with acces s to the downtown through the forest.


SCENARIO 2.2: STREAM CORRIDOR RESTORATION AND ACCE SS The streams running through Santa Elena are the mos t important biological and environmental resource of the community but current ly they are polluted and contaminated. The restoration of these streams wil l have significant impact on the town in four ways: health for residents who come in cont act with the water; new recreational opportunities; biodiversity and wildlife corridors supporting animals that could move through the area; and appearance of conservation to attract tourist. Cleaning the streams has the added advantage of not sending polluted wat er downstream to communities living down the mountain. To accomplish this the community will be required t o work within current environmental laws that protect the stream, for example, no const ruction within 15 meters of a waterway in urban areas and 50 meters in rural areas. They will also have to develop good methods for black and gray water treatment, and attend to r ecycling and trash collection. The streams not only can provide corridors for wild life, they can be developed as a network of greenways throughout the city with paths and small parks as are done in many towns in North America. SCENARIO 2.3: SHARED GREEN SPACES IN NEIGHBORHOODS The current structure for individual houses is that each is located on a single lot with all the lot lines abutting each other. There is no pub lic space except the public street. This scenario is an alternative proposal for the develop ment of housing that organizes the houses on smaller lots but with a shared green spac e internal to the block. This space could be used as a drainage field for individual se ptic systems, house a gray water treatment pond and even have a retention area for s torm water. All of this green space could also function as a part and play area for the children and perhaps community gardens for food production. There are several ownership options for the type of development. For example, one person could develop the entire property and own th e central space, charging a user’s fee for the services of the space. Alternatively, each lot owner could be a part of a cooperative that owns a percentage of the green spa ce and the group of houses would fund any joint projects or improvements. SCENARIO 2.4: URBAN PARKS Civic life is an important part of any community an d this proposal offers a park in the downtown region to create places for the community to gather. It is created by the removal of the former priest house and dentist offi ce and building a new salon for arts and culture


SCENARIO 3: “DIVERSIFICATION: ECONOMIC BASE AND COMMUNITY LIFE” The third scenario is based on the assumption that eco-tourism continues to be one of the major economic strategies of the zone. But it also assumes that is it possible to create a more diverse and robust economy by developing other sectors such as arts and culture, and maintaining and expanding agriculture. Further diversification also refers to new forms of housing that can maintain an urban density without each person having a single house on a lot. The Diversity Program includes the following ideas that are based on existing economic sectors and perhaps bringing in new types of work. Economic Base Patterns: 1. Eco-tourism, conservation and biodiversity as found in Scenario 2. 2. Expansion of different types of tourism to include adventure and arts/culture. 3. Arts/Culture as expanded industry to celebrate work of local people, including crafts and woodworking; expanded music festival and so on. 4. Education to include some university education and perhaps research institutes such as a Water Institute. This would develop a mo re highly educated work force that in turn might bring additional industry to the zone. 5. Agricultural production of organic produce, herbs, medicinal plants 6. Expansion of coffee, especially organic coffee 7. Manufacturing opportunities that might be related t o new agricultural production, furniture production, or other light manufacturing. Other Patterns: 1. Green Structure as in Scenario 2. 2. Conservation and treatment of water 3. New housing types such as apartments, cooperative h ousing and dormitories. 4. Public Transportation system in smaller buses to re duce traffic congestion and improve public health and safety.


SCENARIO 3.1: GATEWAY TO SANTA ELENA This scenario recognizes that how one arrives in a place often determines the kind of experience one has. Therefore, there is a developm ent project at the fork in the road as one enters Santa Elena that includes reforestation of the stream corridor so people come in through a green place that provides a tourist in formation center (already in place) at the bus station that has space for buses to and from th e zone and also internal to the area. The downtown is expanded to include more commercial space, some parking in the upper area of Santa Elena that is connected by a stairs t o the Visitor’s Center and bus center. SCENARIO 3.2: NEW EDUCATIONAL COMPLEX This scenario assumes an expanded collegio by 2020 but one that has expanded to also include a university center on the same campus. Th e current football field moves to a new location near the clinic and new recreational c enter, connected to the educational center by a path through the preserved forest. The new community recreational center has an indoor pool, volleyball and other sports, dr essing rooms and so on. SCENARIO 3.3: NEW HOUSING TYPES There are “apartments” located near the football fi eld connected to downtown by a walking path. These units provide housing for facu lty, can be used as dormitories, or can be used by people who would rather rent a unit and not buy a house. The complex has a community garden so people can grow their own food. Other housing types, similar to the type proposed i n Scenario 2, offer different more shared green spaces and parks within residential ar eas to offer more play opportunities to children near their homes, and to create opportunit ies for community gardens.


NEXT STEPS The Monteverde Institute is committed to continuing the dialogue on Scenario Planning with the community and to partnering with other org anizations to discuss the future of the zone. To date, we have worked primarily with four organizations, the Consejo de Districto, Desarrollo, Camera de Turismo and AyA, a nd hope to expand that to a larger group this coming year. Our next steps are: 1. To make a presentation of the work of Sustainable F utures 2001 and 2002 to groups across the zone who are interested in workin g with us in thinking about future development and conservation. 2. Next year, the Sustainable Futures Course will do S cenario Planning in some of the surrounding communities to expand beyond the Sa nta Elena, Cerro Plano and Monteverde areas. 3. We will continue to work on the preparation of Design Guidelines for Conservation and Development for Monteverde as a resource for the community in the preparation of a Master Plan. Thank you to all the people who worked closely with us during these last few months in the preparation of scenario plans for Santa Elena.


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Appendix 2-2 Organizational Development: Factors of Success and Limits Factors of Success Absence of as much political leadership as economic al Absence of landholders. Ample distribution of the l and Low inheritance of political parties Isolated geographic location The problems are share by all the population (bad r oad condition; little capital to finance) The residents’ diversity of ideas and talents, and an attitude of confidence in their abilities. The immigrants come from the developed c ountries and they make valuable contribution in culture, profession, and e xperience Shared values based in diverse religions Respect to the dialog, and different points of view Transparent, participating and technically capable leadership The processes of dialog and negotiation are long, b ut constant The power is based on the common organizations, not on personal wealth The organizations are open to a free affiliation an d susceptible to the public opinion There are organizations in practically all the prec incts The assembly of the members is the maximum authorit y in the organizations, and maintain the power There is a sense of pride and satisfaction for the things they have done Access to market and sufficient resources and knowl edge to produce The country’s laws facilitate the auto-regulation a nd the collective affiliation Factors of Limits Difference in the interests of the different organi zations There does not exist the same level of compromise Difference in the concept of “for what we associate ”; the short term vision The difficulty of distributing justly the costs of the cooperation


Appendix 3-1: Methods and Protocols for Mapping. 1. Historical Maps 1951 Monteverde Plan 1984 An embroidered map of Monteverde and Cerro Pl ano by Vera Belmar 1986 A Map of Monteverde and Cerro Plano drawn by Khara Gaw 1992 Map of Monteverde and Santa Elena (Linda Math er & aerial photograph) 2001 Map of Monteverde and Cerro Plano by Sustaina ble Futures 2001 Group 2. GPS Procedure 1) Beginning at one point on the centerline of the roa d, a landmark was saved and later named according to the road from which th e data was taken. For example, C1-01, C1-02, C1-03 and so on. Where C1 re presented the centerline of road one. The -01, -02, -03 represen ted consecutive points along the road. 2) Consecutive points were created by walking off 25-m eter sections of the road along the centerline and recorded in consecutive or der. 3) Intersections of roads with roads, and roads with s treams were also saved as landmarks and later named according to the road fro m which the data was taken. They were noted as C1-Int 1, C1-Int 2, and C1-Int 3. Where Int 1 represented intersection 1 on road C1. 3. Topographic Map Procedure 1) Scan the USGS map of Santa Elena and the surroundin g area. 2) Import the map into AutoCAD. 3) Scale the map 4) Duplicate the topography lines, rivers, and roads i n AutoCAD on their own layers. 5) Mark the ridgelines enclosing each watershed using the poly-line tool. These were verified in the field for accuracy, especially where ridgelines crossed the road. 6) Water flow direction was recorded using the topogra phy lines constructed in step 4 and arrows were places on their own layer.


Appendix 3-2: Method for Calculation of Population Growth Rate Both national and Santa Elena populations are growi ng exponentially but at the decreasing rates. The U.S. Census reports both the historical population growth rate for the Costa Rica as well as the projected growth rate for the nation as a whole. Historically, the population growth rates of Santa Elena have been much higher than the rates of growth of the nation. However, the gen eral trends of growth coincide: exponential growth both nationally and locally with both reported at decreasing rate. The historical growth rates of Santa Elena are base d on the actual housing counts from historical maps and six persons per household assumption. Future growth rates have been compounded annually. The annual calculation involves using the relative rate population growth nationally and locally and then applying the percent decrease projected nationally to the local rate of decrease in growth in Santa Elena.