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Projections for 2010 and 2020 [Population studies for Monteverde : Supporting materials : Data]

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Title:
Projections for 2010 and 2020 Population studies for Monteverde : Supporting materials : Data
Translated Title:
Proyecciones para 2010 y 2020 Estudios de la población para Monteverde: Materiales de apoyo: Datos ( )
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Book
Language:
English
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Monteverde Institute
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Subjects / Keywords:
Population forecasting
Sustainable Futures 2001
Genre:
Books/Reports/Directories
Books/Reports/Directories
letter   ( marcgt )

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Language:
English

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University of South Florida Library
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University of South Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
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usfldc doi - M37-00022
usfldc handle - m37.22
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SFS0000735:00001


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PROJECTIONS FOR 2010 AND 2020 In order to develop future scenarios for Monteverde and Cerro Plano, we developed a process to determine the number of structures we had to includ e in these scenarios and how many people were likely to live in the zone. PROJECTIONS FOR NUMBER OF HOUSES We used the most accurate data we had available to us to estimate the projected number of households in the future i.e., the number of struct ures in Monteverde and Cerro Plano over the years using the maps we had prepared. We had a map of Monteverde from 1951 in addition to maps of the areas from 1986, and 1992; we had also created a 2001 map of the areas by walk ing through the zone and updating the 1992 map. From this new map we got a number of houses i n each area: 142 for Monteverde and 141 for Cerro Plano. Table 1 shows the number of houses in the past and projected into the future, and Figure 1 charts the growth. Table 1. Past, Present and Projected Number of Houses based on House Counts 1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020 Monteverde 22 70 84 142 232 331 Cerro Plano No Data 31 87 141 230 329 Total No Data 101 171 283 462 660

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Figure 1. Past, Present and Projected Number of Houses based on House Counts 22 84 331 31 87 329 142 232 70 141 230 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 196019861992200120102020 YearPopulation Monteverde Cerro Plano POPULATION The project process for population projection was d ifficult because of the inadequacy and inconsistency of available data. We explored infor mation from the Clinic and from the National Institute of Statistics and Census. We chose not t o use either of these except as reference because the Clinic Data has conflicting numbers for population and we therefore are not sure that it is reliable. The data available from the Census is for a large area, District 9, which includes a much broader area than our focus of Monteverde and Cerro Plano. (See Appendix B for details on data sources) Our population estimations use A y A's average of s ix people per home. We multiplied our house structure figure by six to get population pro jections. This gave us an estimate of the current population of both areas: Cerro Plano was e stimated to have 846 inhabitants and Monteverde 852 inhabitants. From the 1992 and 2001 numbers, we derived an avera ge annual growth percent. This was done through the following formula: nnrnrr From the formula, it was determined that the averag e annual growth for Monteverde was 7.7% and for Cerro Plano it was 6.9% over those nine yea rs (1992-2001). We decided to average out the growth percentages to an even 7%. Armed with t his percent we projected the population for the year 2010 and 2020 through the following formul a:

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nnrrn n nr The results of the projection are shown in the foll owing table and figure: Table 2. Population Data and Projections based on House Coun ts and Six People Per Household 1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020 Monteverde 132 420 504 852 1392 1986 Cerro Plano No Data 186 522 846 1380 1974 Total No Data 606 1026 1698 2772 3960 Figure 2. Population Data and Projections based on House Counts and Six People Per Household132 504 1986 186 522 1974 420 1392 852 1380 846 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 196019861992200120102020 YearPopulation Monteverde Cerro Plano The average annual growth of the Monteverde Distric t (No.9) from the 1984 and 2000 census information was derived at 7.6%. Defining the boun daries of the district proved to be difficult,

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but we got an idea that it encompasses a larger are a including Santa Elena. This reassured us that our projections were fairly accurate. The following table and graph depict the data gathered from INEC and our projections. The INEC estimated the p opulation of the district in the years between the censuses. They seemed to be underestim ating the growth because there is such a large jump in the population between the estimated 1999 data and the 2000 census. Because of the unreliability of this projected data, our 2010 and 2020 projections only use the measured census data. Table 3. Population of District No.9 (Monteverde) of the Can ton Central, Puntarenas 1984 1985 1986 1992 1999 2000 2010 2020 Source Census INEC Projection INEC Projection INEC Projection INEC Projection Census Projection Projection Population in District No.9 1467 1575 1624 2012 2363 3258 5744 8230 Figure 3. PROJECTION OF COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTU RES In addition to the housing and population projectio ns, we projected the growth of a number of services to better portray the future of the zone. These include hotels, restaurants, schools, supermarkets, and clinics. The historic data are as follows, but this data was handled differently Population of District No.9 (Monteverde) of the Can ton Central, Puntarenas, Costa Rica1467 2012 3258 5744 8230 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 19841992200020102020 YearPopulationProjected by INEC l------------------Projected------------------l Census Census

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here; we will go into the details of each later in this report. Table 4. Historical Data Monteverde Land Use Study Time Period Houses Hotels Businesses Institutions Agriculture Other Total 1951-60 22 0 6 2 0 0 30 1984-87 70 2 6 3 0 3 84 1992 84 16 27 3 6 0 136 2001 142 22 25 7 25 0 221 Cerro Plano Land Use Study 1984-86 31 4 2 0 0 0 37 1992 87 28 12 7 0 2 136 2001 141 49 37 14 0 2 243 Hotels The projection for the number of hotels in years 20 10 and 2020 was based on the current number of hotels in the area of Monteverde and Cerro Plano The count resulted in 14 hotels in 2001. Through talking with the general manager of the Mon taa Monteverde Hotel, Ulises Rodrguez, we learned that hotels in the area grew at an avera ge of seven rooms per hotel per year. We used this figure to project the growth of hotels by 2010 and 2020 using the following formula: rn nrn The following table shows the results figures: Table 5. Extra Number of beds in the Monteverde and Cerro Pl ano Area by 2010 and 2020 Year 2010 2020 Number of Extra Beds 756 1596

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To put these numbers in perspective, the Establo Ho tel will have a total of 300 beds when it is finished. This means that by the year 2020, five m ore Establo Hotels worth of beds will be built in the Cerro Plano and Monteverde area. Restaurants The projection of the number of restaurants in year s 2010 and 2020 was based on the number of restaurants in the area of Monteverde and Cerro Pla no in 1992 and 2001. The counts resulted in seven restaurants in 1992, and 12 restaurants in 20 01. This was an average growth in restaurants of 8% per year. Using this percent we projected fi ve more restaurants by 2010 and ten more by 2020. The following table shows these figures: Table 6. Total number of restaurants in Monteverde and Cerro Plano by 2010 and 2020 1992 2001 2010 2020 Total Number of Restaurants 7 12 17 22 S chools The current percentage of the population that is of school age was based on the clinic data. These reports had broken the population numbers into age categories. The 1999 clinic study showed zero to fourteen-year olds composing 34.4% of the p opulation. The 2000 showed this group composing 35.9% of the population. The Central-Amer ican Population Program run by the University of Costa Rica in cooperation with INEC h ad a study on the Internet ( http://populi.eest.ucr.ac.cr ) that estimated the 2000 population distribution f rom 1995 data. They had a breakdown of the population by age, and the youngest age group composed 31.6% of the population. This and the other group’s percent ages were comparable to the clinic studies, so we were reassured that they were accurate enough fo r our purposes. The following table summarizes all this information:

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Table 7. Percent of Population of Three Age Groups According to Three Sources 1999 Clinic Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+ Percent of Population 34.4 58 7.6 2000 Clinic Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+ Percent of Population 35.9 60.3 3.8 National Distribution from UCR and INEC Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+ Percent of Population 31.6 61 7.3 Knowing that the data was reliable, we determined t he population percent of the four to six-yearolds (kindergarten age) of the 2000 study to be 8.5 % of the population and the seven to fourteenyear-olds to be 18.1%. This translated to 236 and 502 children respectively in 2010, and 337 and 717 by 2020. The additional classroom area needed for the year 2 010 and 2020 were estimated using data from a 1999 Sustainable Futures project that proposed a program for build-out of the Creative Learning Center in Cerro Plano. This project estim ated the space needed for a kindergarten student at 2 m2, and for a 1-12 grader at 1.5 m2. It also estimated the maximum number of kindergarten students at 60, and the maximum number of students from first to twelfth grade to 210 once the school is all built. To know the actual amount of classroom area needed to accommodate these children we needed to subtract the children that would fill the curren t available vacancies in the area schools. There are four schools in the Cerro Plano and Monteverde areas: The Friend’s School, which has no space as it has capped its enrollment, the Cerro Pl ano Public School, which is also full, the Seventh-Day Adventist School and the Creative Learn ing Center. We called the latter two and found out their enrollment space. The Adventist Sc hool had room for one more kindergarten child and six more in the higher grades. The Creat ive Learning Center had enrolled 23 kindergarten children and 163 children in the other grades. Therefore, according to the earlier Sustainable Futures project when it is built-out it will be able to accommodate for 43 more kindergarten children and 47 more children of highe r grades. After subtracting these children from the projected populations and multiplying by t heir appropriate area per student ratio, we determined that by the year 2010, 1057.5 m2 of classroom space will be needed, and by the year 2020, 1582 m2 of classroom space will be needed to accommodate t he projected number of children. To put these numbers in perspective, the Creative Learning Center will have a total

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classroom area of 435 m2 when it is all finished. This information is summ arized in the following table. Table 8. Projected Number of Children and Classroom Area Total Number of Children Age 2001 2010 2020 4-6 145 236 337 7-14 308 502 717 Total Number of Children To Be Accommodated 4-6 0 192 293 7-14 0 449 664 Classroom Area Needed ( m2) Area 0 1057.5 1582 Supermarkets We were informed that the Coop supermarket in Monte verde had plans to expand. So we included this into our scenarios, and we decided th at Cerro Plano would also need a supermarket by 2020. Clinics We learned that a new clinic is being built in Sant a Elena that is projected to support the population of the zone for twenty years; therefore, we decided not to add any these services to our scenarios.

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APPENDIX B Stewart Dallas and Felipe Oltremari researched stud ies that may show population growth patterns in the area of Monteverde. Our intention was to project the population growth of the area in the coming years. Diagnostico Situacional de Salud – rea de Salud de Monteverde 1994 Local Heath Diagnostics – Monteverde Health Area 19 94 The 1994 study by the clinic of Monteverde estimate d the inhabitants of the area from the clinic registration records. Cuadro #1 in the study estim ates the habitants of Santa Elena at 2,500, of Cerro Plano 710, and of Monteverde 700. (Dallas an d Oltremari) Anlisis Situacional y Diagnostico de Salud – Clni ca de Monteverde 1995 Local Analysis and Health Diagnostics – Monteverde Clinic 1995 In 1995, the clinic reported the Santa Elena popula tion in page 4 at 1,724 people. Although the report from the year before estimated 776 more peop le. The Cerro Plano population was estimated at 740 people and the Monteverde populati on at 720 people. These latter estimates seemed to be more plausible. Nevertheless, the San ta Elena estimates made us doubt the credibility of the reports. (Dallas and Oltremari) Anlisis Situacional y Diagnostico de Salud – Clni ca de Monteverde 1999, 2000 Local Analysis and Health Diagnostics – Monteverde Clinic 1999, 2000 This third study was also from the Monteverde clini c. Cuadro No.2 estimated the population of Santa Elena at an even lower 1, 339 inhabitants, bu t the Cerro Plano and Monteverde estimates seemed to be credible at 832 and 824 inhabitants re spectively. The 2000 study had the same kind of information. (Dallas and Oltremari) A y A (Acueductos y Alcantarillas) Estudio de Evalu acin Acueducto de Monteverde A y A – Aqueducts and Sewers Evaluation Study – Mon teverde Aqueduct June 2000 This study estimated the population of part of Mont everde (from the river to the reserve) by counting the number of households connected to the drinking water system and multiplying it by the average number of habitants in each home. Like wise, it also counted hotels as several households because of their water consumption level s. For our purposes we reduced the hotels to represent one home. After adjusting this figure the population of that part of the Monteverde was estimated at 414 people. They also projected t hat in 20 years (2020) the population would double to 828 people. (Dallas and Oltremari)

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A y A (Acueductos y Alcantarillas) Estadsticas A y A – Aqueducts and Sewers Data 1998 A y A has figures for the number of households for the other sections of the area in 1998. These are Caitas, Santa Elena including the cemetery, an d the Cerro Plano with the Los Llanos area. Their household figures for the three areas are 309 141and 445 inhabitants respectively. (Dallas and Oltremari) A y A also projected the number of households for t he years 2008 and 2018. The projected year 2008 figures are 426, 268 and 655 inhabitants, and the year 2018 projections are 618, 388, and 956 inhabitants. Although the inhabitants of the a rea could not be projected from the household water connections because of lack of information, t he projections helped us get an idea of their percent growth per year. (Dallas) INEC – Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas y Censos INEC – National Institute of Statistics and Censuse s The INEC (258-0033) in San Jos reports that the Mo nteverde area is district No.9 of the Puntarenas Cantn (01) or Cantn Central of the Pun tarenas Province of Costa Rica. The first information assistant at the INEC was reluctant to give us much information over the phone, but she did release us the population numbers for the d istrict for the years 1999 (2363 people) and 2000 (3258 people). (Oltremari) The population figures for the district were as fol lows for the years 1984 (1467 people), 1985 (1575 people), 1986 (1624 people), and 1992 (2012 p eople). The assistant also informed us that the years 1984 and 2000 were census years and that the other years were projected. This explained the sudden jump in population from the ye ars 1999 to 2000. (Dallas)