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Trends and developments in global natural disasters, 1947 to 1981

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Title:
Trends and developments in global natural disasters, 1947 to 1981
Series Title:
Natural hazard research working paper ;
Physical Description:
1 online resource (vii, 25 p.) : ;
Language:
English
Creator:
Thompson, Stephen A ( Stephen Andrew )
University of Colorado, Boulder -- Institute of Behavioral Science
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Institute of Behavioral Science
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Boulder, Colo
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Natural disasters -- Statistics   ( lcsh )
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government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

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Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (p. 22).
Statement of Responsibility:
by Stephen A. Thompson.
General Note:
Description based on print version record.

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aleph - 002021563
oclc - 428679728
usfldc doi - F57-00076
usfldc handle - f57.76
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TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS, 1947 to 1981 by Stephen A. Thompson Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado NATURAL HAZARD RESEARCH Working Paper 45

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TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS, 1947 to 1981 by Stephen A. Thompson Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado August, 1982 Worki n9 Paper 45

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Trends and Developments in Global Natural Disasters, 1947 to 1981 iii The "trends" of a decreasing number of disaster impacts and an increasing occurrence o.f large-area disasters have apparently reversed (as so many trends which are based on short time series are wont to do) through the decade of the 1970s. Floods remain the single most frequent disaster by type, followed by earthquakes and the three comprise over 67% of all disasters. The average number of major natural disasters annually is 30.3, which compares to 31.4 for the period 1947-1967, and 30.9 for 1947-1973. With some notable exceptions, deaths per disasters have been increasing at about the same rate as population growth rates in Europe, North America and a number of South and Central American countries, while in Asia and Africa the general trend has been for population growth rates to exceed the death rates from disasters. The single most deadly disaster by type is still the hurricane, though earthquakes now are a very close second having taken nearly as many lives worldwide (see Table 4).

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction. . . . . . . . .. . . . Trends. Appendices 1 Loss of Life from Disaster Impacts .. 2 Large-Area Disasters .. References .......... LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 Average Deaths Per Year. 2 Annual Disasters 3 Disasters by Type. 4 Loss of Life by Disaster Type. LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 Global Disasters ...... 2A Deaths Per Million by National Income. 28 Deaths Per Million by National Income .. iv 1 3 13 16 22 3 5 7 8 6 9 10

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v PREFACE This paper is one in a series on research in progress in the field of human adjustments to natural hazards. It is intended that these papers be used as working documents by those directly involved in hazard research, as well as inform a larger circle of interested persons. The series was started with funds from the National Science Foundation to the University of Colorado and Clark University, but it is now on a self-supporting basis. Authorship of the papers is not necessarily confined to those working at these institutions. Further information about the research program is available from the following: Gilbert F. White Institute of Behavioral Science #6 University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 Robert W. Kates Graduate School of Geography Clark University. Worcester, Massachusetts 01610 lam Burton Institute for Environmental Studies University of Toronto Toronto, Canada M5S lA4 Requests for copies of these papers and correspondence relating directly thereto should be addressed to Boulder. In order to defray duction costs, there is a charge of $3.00 per publication on a subscrip tion basis, or $4.50 per copy when ordered singly.

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INTRODUCTION This paper is the second update of the original survey report on global natural disasters by Sheehan and Hewitt (1969). Their survey covered the 21-year period 1947 to 1967. The first update of that report was done by Dworkin (1974) and extended the period of analysis through 1973. This report covers disaster events up through 1981; thus, the three reports give a continuous 35-year analysis of global natural di sasters. The necessary qualifications attending the earlier reports--the uneven reportage of events leading to an obvious upward bias in reports for North America, the descriptive nature of much of the original data necessitating subjective interpretations by the author, the arbitrary threshold criteria for a "major" disaster, and the problems of defining a large area disaster--are all equally applicable to this paper. There-fore, as Sheehan and Hewitt stated, "In view of the obvious limitations of data ... the work is unlikely to produce more than order-of-magnitude empirical generalisations" (Sheehan and Hewitt, p. 2). The original operational criteria, the satisfaction of any single one by a given disaster event being sufficient for the inclusion of that event as a major disaster in the report, are: 1) At least $1 million in damage 2) At least 100 persons dead 3) At least 100 persons injured. The only change to these criteria was to adjust #1 above for inflation: This update relies on some data compiled by J. Regulska in 1980 for" the period 1974-1979.

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the $1 million (U.S.) dollar criteria in 1973 had become $2.8 million by 1981 (assuming an average inflation rate of 10%).* 2 The sources of data are essentially the same as those used in the previous reports, with the New York Times Index and the Encyclopedia Britannica Yearbook being the two most important. Where necessary, cross-reference was made to other encyclopedic yearbooks and laneous materials on file in the Natural Hazards Research Applications and Information Center's library. Before passlng on to specific comments about recent trends in global disasters, a word first regarding the operational definition of the largearea disaster. In the previous two reports the method for large-area disaster determination is never explicitly stated, though such a disaster is defined as "those covering more than one 10 [longitude by latitude] square unit. .. (Dworkin, p. 2). Given the use of the word "covering" in the previous definition, it follows that a large-area disaster is one in which the area affected in square miles is greater than the area enclosed by the 10 unit of the geographic grid. Two problems immediately arise: 1) the 10 x 10 unit changes in area from the equator to the poles, so that by 30 latitude an impact need only be about 86% as large as an impact at the equator to be classified as a large-area disaster, and by 60 latitude it need be only 50% as large; 2) almost never were the dimensions of a disaster given in the data sources. Aside from these problems, it does not appear as though the two preceding papers followed this logic in classifying large area disaster; This inflation adjustment resulted in the elimination of only three events from the study.

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3 they could not have and still classified East Pakistan (Bangladesh) as being the site of a number of large-area disasters since Bangladesh is smaller than the defining unit. In this paper a disaster had to affect an area greater than the area of an average grid unit to be classified as large-area. The average grid unit is the area of the average between the 10 square unit measured at the equator and the 10 square unit measured at 50. latitude.* The operational unit thus defined is well within the orderof-magnitude limits of accuracy accepted for this survey. The last comment to be made before turning to the analysis is to mention that droughts have been excluded from the report. This is consistent with Dworkin's paper, though Sheehan and Hewitt did include drought in certain aspects of their analysis. TRENDS The total loss of life during the 35-year period 1947-1981 was 1,208,008 persons, giving an average of 34,514 deaths per year. This is a significant increase in deaths per year from the 1947-1967 period average of 21,041 persons per year.** Table 1 shows the change in .average deaths per year by each of the three reports in this series. The explanation for the dramatic increase in deaths per year from the Sheehan and Hewitt report to the Dworkin report is primarily a The vast majority of all reported disasters occur below 50 latitude .. ** The figure given by Sheehan and Hewitt (p. 5) is actually 22,093, but they calculated their average by dividing total deaths by 20 years when, in fact, their period of analysis was 21 years--1947 to 1967 i ncl usi ve.

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TABLE 1 AVERAGE DEATHS PER YEAR Period Years Total Deaths 1 DeathsLYear DeathsLYear Sheehan & Hewitt 1947-1967 21 441 ,855 21,041 21,041 Dworkin 1947-1973 27 828,815 64,493 30,697 Thompson 1947-1981 35 1,207,962 47,398 34,514 l This column calculates the deaths per year for the incremental period added to the original 21 years of analysis. For example, the deaths per year for the Dworkin report applies to the time period 1968 to 1973, or six years. 2See footnote ** on page 3 for discussion of this number. result of deaths due to hurricanes (see Dworkin, Appendix 3), while the increase in this report can be attributed in large part to the Tangshan, China, earthquake in 1976, which claimed 242,000 lives--more than seven times the average annual total for the world. Table 2 gives the breakdown of annual statistics for the period 1974 to 1981. Of note in Table 2 is the peak in disaster impacts from 1978 to 1980. To find a greater three-year period of impact intensity requires going back 25 years to the period 1953 to 1955. The primary cause of the 1979 peak is a significant increase in earthquake activity, especially in Asia. There were 12 major earthquakes (as well as two earthquake-generated tsunamis) in 1979, which is well above the annual average of 5.8 for the period 1974-1981. The year 1980, on the otber hand, was not distinguished by an increase in occurrence of any single disaster agent. 2

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6 Figure 1 is an updated continuation of two graphs given in Dworkin1s paper; however, a two-year left to right translation adjustment has been made so that the graphs begin with 1949 and end with 1979.* A third weighted nine-year moving average has also been calculated and a good agreement can be seen between the two averaging tech niques.** The number of major disasters declined steadily after 1953 until about 1965, increased slightly during the late 19601s, and then continued to decline until the at which point the number of disasters began a significant upward trend. Large-area disasters increase slowly from the late 1940ls until the 19701s, at which time they decrease sharply, levelling off through the latter part of the decade. Dworkin1s conclusion that, "while the number of major natural disasters has been dropping over the last twenty-years, the number of disasters covering large areas has been increasing during the same time period" appears to have reversed completely on both counts during the decade of the 19701s. However, the influence of perhaps nonidentical methods could have influenced the findings on large-area disasters. The total number of disasters for the 35-year period was 1,062, giving an average of 30.3 disasters per year. Table 3 ranks the number of This adjustment technically conforms the graphs to the correct procedure for plotting a moving average. The point value which is calculated for an n-year moving average is assigned to the {n + 1)/2 year, so, for example, the value calculated for a five-year moving average for the period 1947-1951 would be assigned to 1949, not 1947. ** The weights are based on a normal frequency distribution and are as follows: 0.01,0.05,0.12,0.20,0.24,0.20,0.12,0.05,0.01.

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40 35 30 25 10 5 1947" 1950 1955 FIGURE 1 GLOBAL DISASTERS 1947-1981 1960 1965 5-year moving 9-yea r mov i ng average All disasters Large area disasters 1970 1975 1980

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Agent Floods TABLE 3 DISASTERS BY TYPE Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones, Tropical Storms Earthquakes Tornadoes Snowstorms Thunderstorms Lands 1 ides Rai nstorms Heatwaves Volcanoes Coldwaves Avalanches Tsunamis Fog Frost Sand and Dust Storms 8 Number of Disasters 343 211 161 127 40 36 29 29 22 18 17 12 10 3 2 2 impacts by disaster type and shows that floods continue to dominate the list. Of the remaining items in the report, Table 4 is a breakdown of major disasters by continent and by type and needs no further explanation; Appendices 1 and 2 are continuations of similar appendices contained in the previous two reports and likewise are self-explanatory. Figures 2A and 2B are adapted from a graph given in Dworkin's paper .. Dworkin's original graph (Graph 2) plotted countries by national income and deaths per million population. The two graphs here show (by arrow) the magnitude and direction (or vector) of change since 1973, the terminus of the arrow indicating the country's new position. To avoid a confusion of arrows, the countries of North America, South America, Central America,

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9 TABLE 4 Loss of Life by Disaster Type 1947 -1981 10 U Or-10 10 s... U U 10 0) 0,... or-o,... E s... s... V) cc::( 0) 0) 10 10 E E r-0) ,.... c::( c::( 10 10 .0 10 0) U s... .os... a. .r= .r= 0,... 10 0 s... 0,... V) s...c s... s... l+V) 100) 0 0 c::( c::( c::( UU LLJ z: V) Avalanches 705 340 3840 Coldwave 1600 1440 600 Cyclone, Hurricane & Typhoon 950 476816 289 20481 250 2007 15 Earthquakes 16732 333623 133 30541 7324 75 38565 Floods 3962 171435 92 2355 11209 1680 5435 Fogs 3550 Heatwaves 4155 100 340 2190 135 Landslides 3576 260 300 1362 Rainstorms 1845 20 34 130 Sand and Dust Storms 10 Snowstorms 6403 17 200 1344 2157 Thunderstorms & Gales 20410 310 120 240 60 Tsunamis 7864 44 60 600 Tornadoes 548 4876 26 39 2726 Volcanoes 2000 2805 4000 151 61 440 Total 24192 1036113 4675 54324 26276 11840 50582

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10 and Europe are plotted on 2A, while Asia, Africa and Australasia are plotted on 2B.* Inspection of Figures 2A and 2B shows that the most obvious development has been the overwhelming shift from right to left, indicating the general rise in gross national product per capita (GNPpc). Only one country, India, experienced a decline in GNPpc. In Figure 2A, the general trend was for deaths per million population to remain fairly constant for North America and Europe, and for a number of countries in South and Central America. A few outstanding exceptions to the trend are Honduras, Guatemala, Rumania, and Albania, but it should be noted that Honduras and Guatemala had an order-of-magnitude increase in deaths per million population compared to the two European countries.** Put another way, a constant rate of change means that the number of deaths per disaster is increasing at about the same rate that population is growing. Deaths per million in the United States increased noticeably from 43 to 52, and Chile and Ecuador crossed into the high deaths/high income quadrant. In Graph 2B the general tendency for the change vector is more downward and to the left, indicating that population is generally increasing It should be emphasized that the devision of countries (and continents) into Figures 2A and 2B was purely arbitrary and not based on any similarity in the change vectors of the individual countries. To make more precise statements than those in the following analysis regarding continental-scale changes would require calculating a continental change vector; such a vector could be calculated through the addition of the change vectors of the individual constituent countries. ** On Figure 2A Peru appears to have a large change vector but, in fact, Peru's initial position is improperly located and should have been in the upper right quadrant.

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GHP/CAPITA 100,000 FIGURE 2 A DEATHS PER MILLION BY NATIONAL INCOHE 1. HIGH DUTHS HIGH INCOME 20,000 2000 200 10,000 1000 100 ......... ____ _lTl'illAllD!! oC .. +Pt;II:TORICO" ... .l.fIi'TEDICIMGOtIt IlALl COSTA AltA .... _------------<. GlItwn ............ ------------_--...S\WllIloUlO __ ---iOlIV1A lOW DEATHS lOw IHCOMl lOW DEATHS -HIGH INCOM( Income is expressed GNP/Capita (U.S. do11ars)for 1981. Population is also based on 1981 figures.

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FIGURE 2 B DEATHS PER MILLION BY NATIONAL INCOME 1 HIGH DEAIHS HIGH INCOME 10.000 HIGH DUrN'S . i\llt IIIICM 2000 -----t ___ -=_:::::"(iI \WIllE" /I()IIOCUl ".;:;.---------t--"/' lS. hill'" _________ '"'S''' ... JUAA BOP/CAPITA It.O.OOO 10,000 /'"'' "'l"'\IA -lj,, d ... ____ ... I!.AAlt lOW OlATH5 -HIGH lOW DlArH$ lOW See footnote to Figure 2 B.

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faster than the number of deaths per disaster. Mozambique, the Philippines, Algeria, and Australia are the only four countries to 13 have experienced sharp increases in deaths per million. However, some countri.es, i.e., China, Nigeria, Oman, and Zaire, are plotted only as points since earlier positional data for these countries were unavail able, and, hence, their change vector is unknown. Six countries can be seen to have crossed over into the upper left hand quadrant, Japan having been previously the only country in this quadrant.

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14 APPENDIX 1 LOSS OF LIFE FROM DISASTER IMPACTS 1947-1981 Number of Number of Deaths/Mill ion Disaster Impacts Lives Lost Population North America Canada 11 298 12 USA 365 11,680 51 Caribbean and Central America Honduras 4 7,782 1,995 Caribbean Islands 5 286 92 Costa Rica 4 34 15 Cuba 11 1,378 138 Dominican Republic 3 1,041 186 El Salvador 3 430 88 Guatemala 5 23,803 3,174 Hai ti 9 7,133 1,189 Jamaica 4 314 143 Mexico 24 5,236 76 Nicaragua 3 6,475 2,590 Puerto Rico 6 384 120 South America Argentina 9 721 26 Bolivia 2 8 1 Brazil 20 8,069 66 Chile 9 6,527 583 Columbia 12 1,959 70 Ecuador 3 8,060 983 Peru 12 23,684 1,309 Uruguay 1 40 14 Venezuela 4 445 29 Europe Albania 2 50 14 Austria 8 320 43 Azores 1 52 Belgium 3 22 2 Bulgaria 1 20 2 Czechoslovakia 3 10 0.6 Denmark 2 25 5 Eire 1 France 13 1,048 19 Germany, East 6 2,160 129 Germany, West 13 592 10 Great Britain 21 4,962 89 Greece 11 264 28

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15 Appendix 1, cant. Number of Number of Deaths/Million Disaster Lives Lost Europe (continued) Hungary 2 15 1 Italy 9 7,989 140 Netherlands 6 1,876 132 Poland 5 45 1 Portugal 4 636 64 Rumania 2 1,947 87 Spain 5 923 24 Switzerland 2 55 9 Yugoslavia 4 1,126 50 Afri ca Algeria 4 4,433 230 Chad 1 13 3 Ethiopia 1 2 French Somaliland 1 Kenya 1 170 10 Libya 1 260 84 Madagascar 2 750 85 Morocco 2 12,100 555 Mozambique 4 655 61 Mauritius 1 40 40 Nigeria 3 340 4 Reunion 2 300 600 Somalia 1 200 53 South Africa 1 35 1 Sudan 2 2,037 104 Tunisia 2 619 94 Zai re 1 2,000 66 Asia Afghanistan 5 2,432 153 Bangladesh 31 367,280 3,958 Burma 10 4,689 133 China 38 384,423 390 Cyprus 1 40 67 Hong Kong 7 3,865 773 India 77 112,450 163 Indonesia 14 5,893 40 Iran 35 61,259 1,539 Iraq 1 225 17 Israel 2 10 3 Japan 56 32,555 276 Jordan 1 220 67 Korea, South 16 39,733 1 ,021 Laos 1 30 8.3 Lebanon 4 490 153 Malaysia 2 51 4 Nepal 7 1,942 135

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16 Appendix 1, cont. Number of Number of Deaths/Million Disaster ImEacts Lives Lost POEulation Asia (continued) Oman 1 100 111 Pakistan 14 37,048 417 Philippines 39 13,922 285 Ryukus 4 490 Saudi Arabi a 1 500 48 Sri Lanka 5 2,125 139 Taiwan 11 3,123 172 Thail and 5 1,581 33 Tibet 3 Turkey 18 23,334 505 Vietnam 14 16,566 302 Australia & Oceania Australia 15 158 11 New Guinea 3 4,233 1,283 W. Somoa 1 Marshall Island 1 44

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17 APPENDIX 2 LARGE-AREA DISASTERS 1947-1981 Number of Year Month Natural Agent Location 10 squares 1947 Apr-May Flood USA 2 1947 June-July Flood USA 2 1947 August Heatwave USA 2 1948 Flood East Pakistan 2 1948 Jan-Feb Cold Wave S. USA 4 1948 May-June Flood N.W. USA 2 1949 Jan-Feb Blizzards N.W. USA 6 1949 June-July Flood China 2 1950 Feb Flood Mid-west USA 4 1950 Apr-May F100d Mid-west USA 2 1950 Nov Flood N. W. USA 2 1951 Jan-Feb Cold Wave USA 3 1951 Feb Cold Wave Mexico 3 1951 Apr-July Flood Mid-west USA 2 1951 Dec Typhoon Phil ippines 2 1952 Jan-Feb Flood OhioR., USA 2 1952 Jan Storms W. USA 2 1952 Apr Flood Mississippi R. USA 2 1952 June Flood Australia 2 1952 June Flood S.W. USA 2 1952 July Earthquake W. USA 2 1952 Sept Flood Mexi co 2 1952 Sept Hurri cane Mexico 2 1952 Oct Typhoon Philippines & 2 Indochina 1953 May Tornado S. USA 2 1953 Feb Flood N. Sea Area 2 1953 June Flood N.W. USA 2 1953 Aug Flood Chile 2 1953 Sept Blizzards Mexico 2 1954 Jan Cold Wave Europe 4 1954 Sept Hurri cane N. E. USA 2 1954 Oct Hurri cane USA, Haiti, Canada 3 1954 Oct Floods N.C. USA 2

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18 Appendix 2, cont. Number of Year Month Natural Agent Location 10 squares 1955 Aug-Sept Flood India, E. Pak. 2 Assam 1955 Sept Heatwave W. USA 2 1955 Sept Hurricane Mexico, Caribbean 3 1956 Feb Cold Wave Europe 5 1956 Feb Tornado N. Cent. USA 2 1956 Apr Cyclone Mozambique 2 1956 June-July Flood Iran 2 1956 Flood E. Paki stan 2 1956 Sept Hurricane S. USA 2 1957 Apr-May Flood S.W. USA 2 1957 July Earthquake Mexico 2 1958 Jan-Mar Storms W. USA 2 1958 June Storms Mexico 2 1958 Rains W. USA 2 1958 Sept Typhoon Japan 2 1958 Oct Typhoon Philippines 2 1958 Nov Storms E. Paki stan 2 1959 Jan Flood N.W. USA 3 1959 Jan Tornado S.W. USA 2 1959 Mar-Apr Flood Madagascar 2 1959 Apr Flood Brazil, Uruguay, 2 Argentina 1959 May Flood S. Africa 2 1959 Aug Typhoon Taiwan, China 2 1959 Sept Typhoon S. Korea and Japan 2 1959 Sept-Oct Hurricane E. USA 2 1959 Oct-Nov Storms E. Paki stan 2 1959 Dec Typhoon Philippines 2 1960 Jan Heatwave S.E. Australia 2 1960 Jan Coldwave Europe 4 1960 Mar-Apr Flood Mid-west USA 3 1960 May Typhoon Philippines & China 2 1960 June Heatwave N.W. India 2 1960 August Ti dal Wave E. Paki stan 2 1960 Sept Hurri cane Caribbean, S. USA 3 1960 Oct Typhoon Philippines 2 1960 Oct Cyclone E. Pakistan 2 1961 Mar Typhoon E. Pakistan 2 1961 May Typhoon E. Paki stan 2 1961 Sept Hurri cane E. and S. USA 4 1961 Dec Cold Wave India 3

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19 Appendix 2, cont. Number of Year Month Natural Agent Location 10 squares 1962 Dec Typhoon Philippines 2 1963 Jan Blizzards W. Europe 4 1963 Feb Earthquake Libya 2 1963 Sept Flood India 2 1963 Oct Hurricane Cuba, Haiti 2 1964 Jan Flood Brazil 2 1964 Apr Duststorms USA 2 1964 July Typhoon Philippines 2 1964 June Flood E. Pakistan 2 1964 Aug Hurricane Caribbean, S. USA 3 1964 Sept Hurricane USA 2 1964 Dec Flood N.W. USA 2 1964 Dec Cyclone Ceylon, S.E. India 2 1965 April Tornadoes Mid-west USA 2 1965 May Tornadoes Mid-west USA 2 1965 May Cyclone E. Pakistan 2 1965 June Heatwave India 2 1965 August Hail Mid-west USA 2 1965 Sept Hurricane S. USA 2 1965 Dec Cyclone E. Pakistan 2 1966 Feb Blizzards S & E USA 2 1966 July Heatwave Mid-west USA 2 1966 Oct Hurricane Caribbean, Mexico, 4 S. USA 1967 Sept Hurricane S. USA 2 1967 Typhoon Phil i ppi nes 2 1968 Aug Earthquake India, Celebes 2 1968 May Earthquake Japan 2 1968 May-June Floods E. & Mid-west USA 3 1968 October Hurricane S. USA 2 1968 May Tornado S. & Mid-west USA 3 1968 August Heatwave Austra 1 i a 2 1968 March Rain N. E. USA 2 1968 June Rainstorm S. USA 2 1968 Typhoon E. Paki stan 2 1968 Dec Typhoon Indonesia 2

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20 Appendix 2, cont. Number of Year Month Natural Agent Location 10 squares 1969 Mar Flood Brazi 1 2 1969 Aug-Sept Floods Mexico 2 1969 Apr Floods N. & Mid-west USA 4 1969 Aug Hurricane Caribbean & S. USA 4 1969 Sept Hurri cane II & Cent. Amer. 2 1969 Feb Snowstorm N.E. USA 2 1969 May Cyclone India 2 1969 Flood Algeria 2 1970 Jan Floods Argentina 2 1970 July-Sept Flood Indi a 4 1970 Mar-Apr Earthquakes Turkey 2 1970 Aug Hurri cane Caribbean & S. USA 2 1970 Flood Ph il i ppi nes 2 1970 Oct Cyclone E. Pakistan 2 1970 Nov Cyclone E. Pakistan 2 1971 Nov Cyclone India 2 1971 Sept Flood India 2 1971 Feb Tornado S. USA 2 1971 Feb Tornado S. USA 2 1971 Nov Rainstorm Indonesia 2 1972 Apr Tornado E. Pakistan 2 1972 May Flood Mexico & S. USA 3 1972 May Heatwave India 2 1972 June Flood Caribbean & E. & 4 S. USA 1972 June Typhoon Philippines 2 1972 July Flood Philippines 2 1972 Aug Flood Philippines 2 1972 Nov Snowstorm W. Mid-west, N.E. 5 USA 1972 Dec Rainstorm Ph il i ppi nes 2 1973 Mar Flood S. USA 3 1973 Mar Flood N. E. USA 2 1973 Apr-May Flood Mississippi R. USA 4 1973 June Flood N.E. USA 2 1973 Aug Flood India, Pakistan, 3 E. Pakistan 1973 Oct Flood Mid-west USA 3 1973 Oct Flood Spain 2 1973 Mar Earthquake Philippines 2 1973 Nov Tornado S. USA 2 1973 Apr Tornado E. Paki stan 2 1973 Apr Hurricane W. Europe 4

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21 Appendix 2, cont. Number of Year Month Natural Agent Location 100 squares 1974 Jan Rain USA 1 1974 Feb Flood Argentina 2 1974 March Flood Brazil 3 1974 April Tornado USA 2 1974 Aug Flood Bangladesh/India 2 1975 Jan Snowstorm USA 2 1975 Feb Earthquake China 2 1975 Aug Typhoon Japan 2 1975 Sept Flood India 1 1975 Sept Hurri cane Caribbean/USA 4 1976 May Typhoon Philippines 3 1976 July Tropical Storm Mexico 2 1976 Aug Hurri cane USA 2 1976 Sept Tropical Storm USA 2 1977 Jan Snowstorm USA 2 1977 March Snowstorm USA 2 1977 March Earthquake Bulgaria/Rumania 2 1977 Apri 1 Flood USA 2 1977 Aug Earthquake Indonesia 2 1978 Jan Snowstorm USA 1 1978 Oct Rain S.E. Asia 1 1978 Nov Flood India 1 1979 Jan Snowstorm USA 2 1979 Feb Flood Brazi 1 2 1979 July Tropical Storm USA 3 1979 Aug Hurricane Caribbean 1 1979 Sept Hurricane USA 1 1979 Dec Snowstorm Europe 2 1980 April Tornado USA 1 1980 April Tornado USA 1 1980 May Tornado USA 1 1980 May Volcano USA 2 1980 July Heat USA 2 1980 Aug Hurri cane Caribbean/USA 4 1980 Sept Flood 8angladesh/India 1 1981 Jan Cold USA 1 1981 July Flood China 1 1981 Aug Typhoon Far East 1 1981 Dec Cyclone India 1

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22 REFERENCES Dworkin, Judith 1974 Global Trends in Natural Disasters, Natural Hazards Research Working Paper #26. Boulder: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science. Population Reference Bureau, Inc. 1981 1981 World Population Data Sheet. Sheehan, Lesley and Kenneth Hewitt 1969 A Pilot Survey of Global Natural Disasters of the Past Twenty Years. Natural Hazards Research Working Paper #11. Boulder: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science. PRIMARY DATA SOURCES 1. New York Times Index (with extensive reference to original news reports) 2. Encyclopedia Britannica Yearbook. 3. Collier1s Encyclopedia Yearbook. 4. American People1s Encyclopedia Yearbook. 5. Keesing1s Contemporary Archives. 6. Ferrara, Grace M. (ed.). The Disaster File: The 19701s. New York: Checkmark Books. 7. Miscellaneous collections of data on file in the Natural Hazards Research Applications Information Center library.

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NATURAL HAZARD RESEARCH WORKING PAPER SERIES Institute of Behavioral Science #6, Mail Code 482 University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 23 The Natural Hazard Research Working Papers series is a timely method to present research in progress in the field of human adjustments to natural hazards. It is intended that these papers will be used as working documents by the group of scholars directly involved in hazard research as well as inform a larger circle of interested persons. Single copies of working papers cost $4.50 per copy. It is also possible to subscribe to the paper series. A subscription entitles the subscriber to receive each new working paper as it comes off the press at the special discount rate of $3.00 per copy. The subscription itself costs nothing; when a new working paper is sent to a subscriber it is accompanied by a bill for that volume. 1 The Human Ecology of Extreme Geophysical Events, Ian Burton, Robert W. Kates, and Gilbert F. White, 1968, 37 pp. 2 Annotated Bibliography on Snow and Ice Problems, E. C. Relph and S. B. Goodwillie, 1968, 16 pp. 3 Water Quality and the Hazard to Health: Placarding Public Beaches, J. M. Hewings, 1968, 74 pp. 4 A Selected Bibliography of Coastal Erosion, Protection and Related Human Activity in North America and the British Isles, J. K. Mitchell, 1968, 70 pp. 5 Differential Response to Stress in Natural and Social Environments: An Application of a Modified Rosenzweig Picture-Frustration Test, Mary Barker and Ian Burton, 1969, 22 pp. 6 Avoidance-Response to the Risk Environment, Stephen Golant and Ian Burton, 1969, 33 pp. 7 The Meaning of a Hazard--Application of the Semantic Differential, Stephen Golant and Ian Burton, 1969, 40 pp. 8 Probabilistic Approaches to Discrete Natural Events: A Review and Theoretical Discussion, Kenneth Hewitt, 1969, 40 pp. 9 Human Behavior Before the Disaster: A Selected Annotated Bibliography, Stephen Golant, 1969, 16 pp. 10 Losses from Natural Hazards, Clifford S. Russell, (reprinted in Land Economics), 1969, 27 pp. 11 A Pilot Survey of Global Natural Disasters of the Past Twenty Years, Research carried out and maps compiled by Lesley Sheehan, Paper prepared by Kenneth Hewitt, 1969, 18 pp.

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24 12 Technical Services for the Urban Floodplain Property Manager: Organiza tion of the Design Problem, Kenneth Cypra and George Peterson, 1969, 25 pp. 13 Perception and Awareness of Air Pollution in Toronto, Andris Auliciems and Ian Burton, 1970, 33 pp. 14 Natural Hazard in Human Ecol0 ical Pers ective: H otheses and Models, Robert W. Kates reprinted in Economic Geography, July 1971 1970, 33 pp. 15 Some Theoretical As ects of Attitudes and Perce tion, Myra Schiff reprinted in Perceptions and Attitudes ..:i.!l Resources Management, W. R. D. Sewell and Ian Burton, eds.), 1970, 22 pp. 16 Suggestions for Comparative Field Observations on Natural Hazards, Revised Edition, October 20, 1970, 31 pp. 17 Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards: A Preliminary Study of Adjustment to Earthquakes and Their Costs, Tapan Mukerjee, 1971, 37 pp. 18 Human Adjustment to Cyclone Hazards: A Case Study of Char Jabbar, M. Aminu1 Islam, 1971,60 pp. 19 Human Adjustment to Agricultural Drought in Tanzania: Pilot Investi gations, L. Berry, T. Hankins, R. W. Kates, L. Maki, and P. Porter, 1971,69 pp. 20 The New Zealand Earthguake and War Damage Commission--A Study of a National Natural Hazard Insurance Scheme, Timothy O'Riordan, 1971, 44 pp. 21 Notes on Insurance Against Loss from Natural Hazards, Christopher K. Vaughan, 1971, 51 pp. 22 Annotated Bibliography on Natural Hazards, Anita Cochran, 1972, 90 pp. 23 Human Impact of the Managua Earthquake Disaster, R. W. Kates, J. E. Haas, D. J. Amaral, R. A. Olson, R. Ramos, and R. Olson, 1973, 51 pp. 24 Drought Compensation Payments in Israel, Dan Yarden, 1973, 25 pp. 25 Social Science Perspectives on the Coming San Francisco Earthquake-Economic Impact, Prediction, and Construction, H. Cochrane, J. E. Haas, M. Bowden and R. Kates, 1974, 81 pp. 26 Global Trends in Natural Disasters, 1947-1973, Judith Dworkin, 1974, 16 pp. 27 The Consequences of Large-Scale Evacuation Following Disaster: The Darwin, Australia Cyclone Disaster of December 25, 1974, J. E. Haas, H. C. Cochrane, D. G. Eddy, 1976, 67 pp.

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25 28 Toward an Evaluation of Policy Alternatives Governing Hazard-Zone Land Uses, E. J. Baker, 1976, 73 pp. 29 Flood Insurance and Community Planni"ng, N. Baumann, R. Emmer, 1976, 83 pp. 30 An Overview of Drought in Kenya: Natural Hazards Research Paradigm, B. Wisner, 1976, 74 pp. 31 Warning for Flash Floods in Boulder, Colorado, Thomas E. Downing, 1977, 80 pp. 32 What People Did During the Big Thompson Flood, Eve C. Gruntfest, 1977, 62 pp. 33 Natural Hazard Response and Planning in Tropical Queensland, John Oliver, 1978, 63 pp. 34 Human Response to Hurricanes in Texas--Two Studies, Sally Davenport, 1978, 55 pp. 35 Hazard Mitigation Behavior of Urban Flood Plain Residents, Marvin Waterstone, 1978, 60 pp. 36 Locus of Control, Repression-Sensitization and Perception of Earthguake Hazard, Paul Simpson-Housley, 1978, 45 pp. 37 Vulnerability to a Natural Hazard: Geomorphic, Technological, and Social Change at Chiswell, Dorset, James Lewis, 1979, 39pp. 38 Archeological Studies of Disaster: Their Range and Value, Payson D. Sheets, 1980, 35pp. 39 Effects of a Natural Disaster on Local Mortgage Markets: The Pearl River Flood in Jackson, Mississippi April 1979, Dan R. Anderson and Maurice Weinrobe, 1980, 48pp. 40 Our Usual Landslide: Ubiguitous Hazard and Socioeconomic Causes of Natural Disaster in Indonesia, Susan E. Jeffery, 1981, 63pp. 41 Mass Media Operations in a Quick-onset Natural Disaster: Hurricane David in Dominica, Everett Rogers, Rahul Sood, 1981,55 pp. 42 Notices, Watches, and Warnings: An Appraisal of the USGS's Warning System with a Case Study from Kodiak, Alaska, Thomas F. Saarinen and Harold J. McPherson, 1981, 90p. 43 Emergency Response to Mount St. Helens' Eruption: March 20-April 10, 1980. J. H. Sorensen. 1981. 70 pp. 44 Agroclimatic Hazard Perception, Prediction and Risk-Avoidance Strategies in Lesotho. Gene C. Wilken, 1982, 76 pp.