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1 of 17 Education Policy Analysis Archives Volume 5 Number 2January 8, 1997ISSN 1068-2341A peer-reviewed scholarly electronic journal. Editor: Gene V Glass,Glass@ASU.EDU. College of Educ ation, Arizona State University,Tempe AZ 85287-2411 Copyright 1997, the EDUCATION POLICY ANALYSIS ARCHIVES.Permission is hereby granted to copy any a rticle provided that EDUCATION POLICY ANALYSIS ARCHIVES is credited and copies are not sold.Where Have All the Teachers Gone? Mark Fetler California Commission on Teacher Credentialing Abstract A rising need for teachers is projected for Califor nia and the nation during the next decade. Sound policy for teacher preparation should not onl y foster a capable workforce, it should also assure that the supply of qualified teachers balanc es with employment demand. A conceptual model is proposed to describe the flow of individua ls through teacher preparation programs and the workplace. In California the workforce is proje cted to grow by thirty percent over the next ten years, stimulating the demand for teachers. At pres ent the number of newly credentialed teachers exceeds the number hired. However, the apparent abu ndance masks an oversupply of teachers in some curricular and geographic areas and shortages elsewhere. Evidence for a lack of balance between supply and demand is found in an upward tre nd of emergency hiring of teachers who do not meet all requirements for a credential and low employment rates for first-time college and university prepared teachers. The asymmetry between supply and demand could be redressed partly through better retention of working teachers and closer coordination of preparation programs with the needs of schools in their service areas. A basic concern for state and federal policymakers who fund and regulate public school systems is determining how many teachers are needed to provide a desired level of service to a given student population. The number of students as signed to a teacher, a measure of workload, presumably influences the way in which a teacher pr epares, delivers instruction, manages the classroom, etc. Conventional wisdom suggests that l ower teacher workloads should result in more attention to individual students, and stronger student outcomes. The Tennessee studies of class size found that teachers in smaller classes h ave more time to give to individual children. (Mosteller, Light, and Sachs, 1996) In Tennessee a reduction in class size from 23 to 15 in grades K 3 speeded up learning and continued to confer las ting benefits to students when they attended

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2 of 17larger classes in later grades. Even so, there is o ngoing debate among researchers about the relationship between class size and student achieve ment. (Glass, 1979; Greenwald, Hedges, and Laine, 1996; and Hanushek, 1996) Such debate is understandable given the increased c osts of smaller classes. For example, California policymakers in 1996 allocated $771 mill ion for a statewide reduction in class sizes for grades K-3. According to Kirst, Hayward, and Ko ppich (1995) California appropriations for K-12 education consume 35% of the state's general f und, with teacher salaries accounting for 80 percent. The average annual teacher salary in Calif ornia is about $40,000. In 1995-96 there were about 5.4 million students enrolled in California's public schools, along with 232,000 teachers, yielding a student-teacher ratio of 23:1. In order to reduce this ratio by one point to 22:1, it would be necessary to increase the pool of working teache rs by 10,000 at a projected cost of $400 million. Of course, actual costs could be more or l ess depending on how the increase is achieved. The pool of working teachers could be enlarged by s lowing the transition of teachers out of school employment, by recruiting more formerly empl oyed teachers back into service, or by recruiting more first time teachers from traditiona l or non-traditional preparation programs. Whatever the methods, employing more teachers, mean s drawing money away from competing policy goals, a decision which is attended by debat e.Teacher Supply and Demand An evaluation of the supply of teachers in relation to demand provides relevant background for such policy choices. There are at le ast two significant dimensions to an analysis of supply and demand. One dimension relates to the skills and abilities expected of teachers. For example, California has a linguistically and cultur ally diverse student population. Many of California's teacher preparation programs have adde d training to facilitate adapting instruction in culturally appropriate ways and language acquisitio n. While more extensive teacher preparation is intended to improve instruction, it usually cons umes additional time and resources. Darling-Hammond and Hudson (1990) and the report fr om the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future (1996) discuss teache r preparation issues in detail. Reynolds (1991) comments that teacher licensure is intended to protect the public from harm. Ashton (1996) notes that teachers with regular state certi fication receive higher supervisor ratings and student achievement than teachers who do not meet s tandards. If teachers are not adequately prepared for their jobs and cannot teach effectivel y, they place their students at risk. The requirements for a teaching credential are designed to provide assurance that teachers are adequately prepared. Ideally, such requirements ref lect a consensus of expert practitioners, teacher educators, and researchers. The substance o f teacher preparation is not the main focus of this paper. The second dimension of an analysis of teacher supp ly and demand describes the flow of people into and out of public school employment. Pr imary components of this dimension are the hiring needs of public schools and the capacity of various sources to meet those needs. Major sources of credentialed teachers include college an d university preparation programs and re-entrants from the reserve pool of previously emp loyed teachers. Other numerically less prominent sources are school district and universit y programs to facilitate the mid-career transition of people into teaching from jobs in oth er industries or the military. The relationship between the two dimensions of prep aration and flow is complex. One hypothesis is that certification and licensure requ irements restrict access to the teaching profession. Other conditions remaining equal, highe r standards will depress the numbers of teachers who are prepared. Under this hypothesis th ere are two ways to meet increased demand. One way is to lower the requirements, reducing the time and cost required to become a teacher. A risk of this strategy is that less well prepared te achers may tend to be be less effective in their

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3 of 17jobs and more prone to attrition. A second way is t o provide additional incentives to prospective teachers, for example, higher salaries or better wo rking conditions. When there are insufficient numbers of suitably cre dentialed applicants, California school districts can hire individuals on emergency permits who lack some requirements for a credential, usually proof of competence in their subject(s) of instruction or pedagogy. (Hart and Burr, 1996) Approximately one-third of emergency permits in 199 4-95 were issued to individuals without the training to teach or work with children. Emergency permits are most often granted in the areas of special education, bilingual education, mathematics and science. Emergency permit hiring is more prevalent in California's large urban district s than elsewhere. Where the need is ongoing, emergency permits are renewed annually. About sixty percent of California's emergency teachers are teaching on renewals of old permits, with no li mit on the number of possible renewals. Overall the percentage of teachers on emergency per mits has grown steadily since 1989, with much but not all of the increase related to more st ringent credentialing requirements in special education. School district demand for teachers is influenced b y the willingness of prospects to apply for jobs. Tierney (1993) surveyed employment decisi ons of recent graduates of teacher preparation programs and school district personnel offices in California. Most graduates intended to teach at public schools within California and be gan searching for employment during or immediately following the completion of their progr ams. Over half preferred to teach within 25 miles of their current home. The most important rea sons for applying to their chosen districts included: closeness to their current home, availabi lity of assignment, and reputation of the district. The school district priorities for evalua ting candidates included: job interview, performance in student teaching, candidate enthusia sm, and reference letters. Although school districts generally require transcripts, the reputa tion of the credential program, the candidate's academic record, and the reputation of the undergra duate institution were less heavily weighted. An additional factor influencing the demand for qua lified teachers is the rate at which teachers leave public school employment. One challe nge in estimating teacher attrition is that few research studies continue long enough to observ e the departure of all participants. Willet and Singer (1991, p. 411) comment that "the clearest si gnals about teachers' careers will come from studying cohorts of teachers whose professional liv es were tracked from a common reference point their entry into teaching." They recommend survival analysis as a statistical method for coping with such "censored" data. Longitudinal trac king of individuals permits the calculation of various statistics, including survival probabilitie s, or the proportion of an initial cohort surviving through successive years. Median career length is c omputed as the elapsed time until half the cohort has left. Hazard probabilities are the condi tional probabilities that a teacher will leave, given that he or she survived through the end of th e previous year. Not all teachers who quit permanently sever their t ies with public schools. A significant part of the demand for teachers can be met by rehir ing individuals who have previously taught. Beaudin's (1993, 1995) studies describe factors inf luencing the reentrance of previously employed Michigan teachers into public school servi ce. Teachers were more likely to return if their instructional specialties provided limited op portunities for higher paid jobs outside of education. They were more likely to return if they had more than two years of teaching experience coupled with a masters degree, or if the y were older when they interrupted their career. About 55 percent of reentering teachers ret urned to their original school districts. The probabilities of returning to the original district were higher for those districts with higher salaries and higher levels of funding. Individuals with more years of teaching experience and who only interrupted their careers for one year wer e more likely to return to their original districts. Nationally, between 1988 and 1994, schools hired in creasingly larger proportions of first-time teachers and smaller proportions of reen trants. (NCES, 1996a) In 1994 about 57

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4 of 17percent of first-time teachers came fully prepared from college or university programs, a decrease of about 10 percentage points since 1988. Possibly a consequence of this decrease, many students are being taught core academic subjects by teachers without adequate educational qualifications in their assigned fields. (NCES, 1996b) For example in grades 7-12 during 1990-91 about one fifth of students received instruction from underqu alified teachers in English, one-quarter of students in mathematics, thirty-nine percent in lif e science or biology, fifty-six percent in physical science, and over half in history or world civilization. NCES (1996c) estimates that total K-12 enrollment w ill increase from 49.8 million in 1994 to 54.6 million by 2006, an increase of about 10 pe rcent. During the same period the number of high school graduates is estimated to increase by 2 1 percent. Perhaps reflecting uncertain prospects for growth in higher education, NCES proj ects the number of bachelor's degrees to increase, either by 0.5 percent under a low alterna tive, or by 22 percent under a high alternative. Under a middle alternative, the number of classroom teachers is expected to increase from 2.96 million in 1994 to 3.43 million by 2006, a rise of 16 percent.Supply and Demand Model and Indicators An evaluation of teacher supply and demand should i nclude estimates of the numbers of teachers needed, along with the capacity of primary sources to meet that demand. Ideally, a flow analysis would track individuals as they make their way through postsecondary education or the workplace into and out of public school teaching. G iven that such tracking systems do not exist in California or many other states, other sources o f data are used to construct indicators which can be used inferentially. Using indicators to make inferences may less satisfactory than using tracking systems. However an indicator based analys is is superior to uninformed guesswork. A rational method for constructing indicators of th e flow of individuals through institutions involves a conceptual model. One simpl e model includes four main components: the K-12 school system, the college/university preparat ion programs, the pool of re-entrants, and the pool of less than fully qualified individuals who a re willing and permitted to work on an emergency basis. Increased K-12 student enrollment for example, requires hiring more teachers in order to sustain a given student-teacher ratio. The number of teachers available depends in part on enrollments in college and university preparatio n programs, and the capacity of colleges and universities to serve undergraduates. The pool of K -12 graduates is a source of prospective college students, and colleges/universities need en rollment to sustain degree and credential programs. Additionally, there is a continually repl enished pool of former teachers, some of whom are interested in re-entering the profession. Where school districts cannot recruit and hire a sufficient number of fully qualified teachers, they turn to emergency permit hiring. While this particular model can be refined, it provides a star ting point for discussion.

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5 of 17 Chart 1 displays California's actual and projected graded K-12 enrollment and numbers of classroom teachers. (See Note 1.) The actual averag e ratio of K-12 pupils to classroom teachers from 1991-92 through 1995-96 is 23 to 1. This ratio is not a measure of class size, given that it does not take account of physical classrooms. As an overall measure, it encompasses situations with typically low student teacher ratios, such as special education, and situations with high ratios, such as some physical education classes. Th e projected numbers of teachers from 1996-97 onward assume continuation of the 23 to 1 student t eacher ratio. During the fall of 1996 the California Legislature enacted a program, which giv es incentives to school districts to reduce class size in three elementary grades. Under this p rogram there is a limit of twenty students in a "class." An estimated 20,000 additional teachers ar e needed to fully implement this program, which represents about an eight percent increase in the size of the workforce. The projected number of teachers under the Class Size Reduction P rogram is calculated by applying an eight percent increase to the original projections. Over the next ten years, with class size reduction, the teaching workforce should increase in size by 68,00 0, which is about 30 percent growth. The total number of teachers employed at any given time depends on the flows of individuals in and out of the workforce. These flow s include hires of first-time or previously employed teachers, retirements, and attrition of ex perienced teachers. Information about retirements is available from The California State Teachers Retirement System. (See Note 2.) Between 1990 and 1995 and average of 5,150 K-12 pub lic school teachers retired each year, typically with 28 years of service at an age of 61. The percent of staff retiring varied from a low of 1.8 percent in 1990 to a high of 2.3 percent in 1993. On average about 2 percent of teachers retired each year. Estimates of teacher attrition can be made using da ta from the California Department of Education annual staff surveys of professional assi gnments. (See Note 3.) School districts provide the number of years of service for each tea cher. A cohort of new first-time teachers is operationally defined as those who are beginning th eir first year of service. The size of this cohort in its second year and following years is es timated by counting the number of teachers in the district who are beginning their second year in the district and overall. The available data

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6 of 17 neither identify nor permit the longitudinal tracki ng of individuals, precluding a traditional application of survival analysis techniques. Even s o, it is possible to develop estimates of the relevant survival statistics. Cohorts of new first-time teachers were estimated f rom the surveys of professional staff for 1986-87 through 1995-96. Overall estimates of survi val probabilities for this period can be made by calculating the percent of the original cohort w hich appears to be present in succeeding years and averaging across cohorts. By definition 100 per cent of such teachers are present the first year. As displayed in Chart 2, an average of 84 percent w ere present at the beginning of the second year, 76 percent the third year, 68 percent the fou rth year, and 63 percent the fifth year. An estimated half of all new first-time teachers remai n at the beginning of a seventh year. Annual attrition of the total population of teachers is es timated at six percent. (See Note 4.) The risk or hazard that a teacher will quit in a particular yea r, given that he or she survived through the end of the previous year was 16 percent after the first year, 10 percent after the second, 10 percent after the third, and 9 percent after the fourth. The estimated eight percent of teachers who leave t he workforce annually due to retirement and attrition influences the annual numb er that must be recruited and hired. For example, in round numbers: 228,000 teachers employed in 1994-95 ye ar (minus) 18,000 eight percent attrition and retireme nt 210,000 teachers remain available for 1 995-96 However, about 232,000 teachers were actually emplo yed in 1995-96, so that 22,000 teachers were needed to fill the gap. More arithmetic indica tes that about forty percent of those hired in 1995-96 were re entrants, compared to 60 percent fi rst-time teachers.

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7 of 17 22,000 teachers actually hired in 199596 (minus)13,500 actual first time teachers hired in 1 995-96 8,500 re-entrants in 1995-96 Among other requirements, California teachers must possess a four-year undergraduate degree from a regionally accredited college or univ ersity, and a major in their subject area of instruction. A "fifth-year" teacher preparation pro gram traditionally supplements the undergraduate degree. For this reason, the capacity of colleges and universities to serve undergraduates and produce undergraduate degrees in fluences teacher preparation. Table 1 displays annual counts of undergraduate degrees pro duced by the state's accredited public and independent colleges and universities along with co unts of students from public high schools graduating five years earlier. (See Note 5.)Table 1 Undergraduate Degrees and High School GraduatesYear ofDegree Number ofDegrees GraduationYear High SchoolGraduates 1989-9096,2701984-85225,448 1990-9199,5531985-86229,026 1991-92105,4461986-87237,414 1992-93108,1031987-88249,518 1993-94109,8501988-89244,629 1994-95107,6611989-90236,291 1995-96 103,179 1990-91234,164 1996-97 107,775 1991-92244,594 1997-98 109,857 1992-93249,320 1998-99 111,515 1993-94253,083 1999-00 112,448 1994-95255,200 2000-01 114,730 1995-96 260,378 2001-02 116,461 1996-97 264,307 2002-03 123,178 1997-98 279,552 2003-04 125,640 1998-99 285,138 The average number of years spent pursuing an under graduate degree is disputed, but likely depends on the type of institution (public v ersus private) and selectivity. Although the undergraduate degree conventionally takes four year s, many students require five years or longer. Table 2 compares the number of degrees in a given y ear with the size of the public school graduating class five years previously. The ratio o f graduates (lagged by five years) to undergraduate degrees is 0.44. Assuming that this r atio of graduates to degrees remains constant, the projections of high school graduates can be use d to estimate the future supply of undergraduate degrees. Under this assumption, over the next ten years there will be an average annual net increase of 2,807 undergraduate degrees per year. The assumption of a constant ratio

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8 of 17is probably optimistic, given a recent analysis of funding for public higher education and student aid in California showing that the state's colleges and universities probably will not receive additional resources needed to increase their capac ity to serve future potential undergraduates. (Breneman, 1995) Decreases in the number of college graduates in the late 1980s are correlated with a leveling off and actual decrease in the number of u ndergraduate degrees granted in recent years. The projections suggest that there will be continue d decline in the number of undergraduate degrees for one more year, potentially followed by increases through 2003-04. The short term trend suggests that there will be decreasing number s of students completing teacher preparation programs. Over the longer term, assuming that progr ams continue to attract and serve students at the same level as in the past, there should be incr easing numbers of college and university prepared candidates. On the other hand, given the p rospect of limited growth for higher education generally, it may be unrealistic to expect signific antly greater numbers individuals completing teacher preparation programs. Table 2 displays the number of newly prepared teach er candidates and the number of new teachers actually hired. (See Note 6.) New or first credentials exclude renewals, a process which California requires every five years. The number of college/university credentials includes prospective teachers who completed a college or uni versity program. The number of emergency permits or waivers reflects people who have not met all the requirements for a credential. Out of state candidates, who are certified elsewhere, can be authorized to teach while they complete California requirements. The "Other" category inclu des interns and individuals who are converting types of credentials no longer in use to current ones.Table 2 Actual New or First Time Credentials and New Hires of First Time TeachersYearTotalCollege/ University Emergency/Waiver Out ofState OtherNew Hires 1992-9322,34113,0224,0553,6491,6159,436 1993-9422,80813,3325,2353,0831,15812,530 1994-9522,48512,7465,6282,9381,17314,090 1995-9622,76713,4325,4082,7001,22613,535 Overall, about 58 percent of candidates were from c olleges/universities, 22 percent received emergency permits or waivers, 14 percent c ame from out of state, and 6 percent from other sources. Emergency permits are issued only wh en a job offer is pending, so virtually all such recipients are employed. It is likely that tea chers from out of state who seek a California credential have job offers. Candidates in the "Othe r" category who are converting outdated credentials may or may not be currently employed as teachers. School district interns have pending offers. Dividing the number of new hires by the total numbe r of credentials produces a rate which ranges from .42 to .62, averaging .55. This suggest s that at most about fifty percent of all new or first time credential holders are actually hired. H owever, the probability of employment appears to be more remote for the college/university group, which must compete against emergency permit holders, out of state candidates and others. As stated earlier, virtually all emergency permit holders have job offers. It is not known how many out of state candidates or "other" candidates gain employment. Plausible estimates are that at least three fourths of out of state

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9 of 17candidates and half of "others" have jobs. If true, the four year average hiring rate for college/university credential holders is .33. The four year trends for production of college/univ ersity credentials appears to be flat. This relatively flat trend is consistent with the recent leveling off and decline in the numbers of undergraduate degrees produced. It may also be a re sponse to the apparently rigorous competition for a limited number of jobs and the prevalence of emergency permit hiring. During the same period the number of emergency permits and waivers increased by about one third, and new hires increased by about 43 percent. The number of creden tials granted to candidates from out of state has declined by about 25 percent, possibly in respo nse to California's weak economic conditions during the first half of the decade.Discussion Perhaps the most basic finding is the projected inc rease in the size of the teaching workforce. Driven by increasing student enrollment, the number of teachers needed will grow by about thirty percent during the next ten years. Giv en California's compulsory school attendance laws and the virtual entitlement of the opportunity to earn an high school diploma, schools must fill these teaching slots. Does the increased demand for teachers prophesy a s hortage by the year 2005? Assuming that current rates of attrition, retirement, and hi ring of re-entrants remain constant, it is difficul t to make a case for shortages. At the beginning of t he school year in 2005 there will be an estimated need to hire about 29,000 teachers, of wh om 17,400 will be first-time credential recipients. There were over 17,000 first-time or ne w credentials issued in 1995-96, exclusive of emergency permits. California's improving economy i n coming years will probably lure more teachers from other states, further mitigating any prospect of a shortage. On the other hand, misalignment in the supply and demand of teachers i s suggested by the increasing number of emergency permits issued and the apparently low emp loyment rates for first-time college and university prepared teachers. An estimated 22 percent of new teachers are current ly hired on an emergency basis. Reynolds (1991), the National Commission on Teachin g and America's Future (1996), and Hart and Burr (1996) suggest that this practice raises c oncerns about protection of the public interest. One concern is whether teachers on emergency permit s are as effective with students as regularly credentialed teachers. Given that teachers on emerg ency permit lack proof of competence in their instructional area or in teaching techniques, they may well not be as effective. A second concern is how long emergency permit teachers remain in ser vice. A lack of preparation on top of the stress of adapting to the pressures of a school env ironment could result in a higher attrition rate, compared to regularly credentialed teachers. If tru e, then the increased numbers of emergency permits should be associated with higher levels of attrition. To the extent that higher attrition rates and lower levels of preparation impede the de velopment of a stable and experienced workforce, they probably contribute to low student achievement, poor discipline, and other undesirable student outcomes. There are administrat ive costs associated with teacher attrition for example, the resources expended for recruitment, hi ring, and one or more years of induction. There will probably be negative consequences for th e teaching staff, including lower morale, poorer attendance, and increased disciplinary probl ems. While the need for teachers is growing, a correspon ding increase in the capacity of teacher training programs seems unlikely. The decreasing nu mbers of high school graduates and degrees produced five years previously indicate that in the near term undergraduate degrees will continue to decrease, possibly depressing the enrollments in college and university teacher preparation programs. Over the next ten years, assuming optimis tically that colleges and universities will be able to serve more students, there will be an estim ated 15 to 20 percent increase in the production

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10 of 17of undergraduate degrees, corresponding to a thirty percent increase in the need for teachers. The expansion of teacher preparation program budgets at public universities would likely be difficult, particularly given present difficulties in competin g for funds. In the unlikely event that more resources for teacher preparation programs are fort hcoming, several years will probably be required to expand the programs. To the extent that such expansion encompasses better coordination with local school district needs, it m ay help to remedy emergency permit hiring. An alternative to expanding preparation programs is to improve the survival rate of teachers on the job. Currently it appears that abou t half the cohort of first-time teachers survives past seven years, with greater numbers of teachers leaving the profession after the first or second year. Programs to retain more teachers for more yea rs in the profession could reduce the need for hiring. Although such programs would be helpful sta tewide, they would be most useful in geographical and curricular areas that experience h igh rates of attrition. An estimated one third of individuals who complete college and university preparation programs actually seek and gain regular teaching em ployment in public schools. The results are consistent with Tierney's (1993) finding that prosp ective teachers heavily weigh the closeness of jobs their current home and availability of assignm ent. School districts may find that the skills and abilities of the available candidates do not ma tch the positions to be filled. On one level, the function of teacher training programs is to prepare teachers, not to guarantee employment. On the other hand, the room for improvement in the employm ent rate suggests a mismatch between labor market needs and the preparation programs. Another alternative to college and university progr ams is the reserve pool of teachers who were previously employed in public schools and now wish to re-enter service. Over half of the teachers hired in 1995-96 had previous experience. Beaudin's (1993, 1995) findings suggest that the decision to re-enter may depend heavily on fina ncial issues. A previously employed teacher is more likely to re-enter if the teaching job is geog raphically convenient and is higher paying than private sector alternatives. The hiring of re-enter ing teachers provides a context for interpreting the attrition of first-time teachers. While many fi rst-timers leave after one or two years, it appears that many of them eventually return to teaching.Conclusion It was earlier noted that the quality of teacher pr eparation and the quantity of available teachers are not independent. A traditional interpr etation of this statement is that higher preparation standards by limiting access threaten t he supply of teachers and the staffing of schools. It would be unfortunate if the projected n eed for more teachers were to cause an erosion of standards for teacher preparation. This scenario leads towards lower student performance, less job satisfaction, higher teacher attrition, increas ed public discontent, and further erosion of standards. Easier teacher preparation programs and emergency permit hiring are expedient solutions to short term employment needs. However, such expediency may bring about greater long term problems. Given the findings of this study a different interp retation and policy seems plausible. Teachers who are more thoroughly prepared to meet t he specific needs of schools may persist longer in their jobs. If this is true, higher reten tion rates of qualified teachers would result in th e establishment of a more stable, satisfied, and high ly competent workforce, slowing the revolving employment door at school district offices, and red ucing the need for emergency permit hiring. An additional, perhaps more important benefit is th at better prepared teachers should be more effective in their jobs and assist more students to higher levels of attainment. A policy of higher standards and more support may be difficult to achi eve in the near term. Public schools will have to be weaned from expedient employment practices, a nd preparation programs will need to become more rigorous and attentive to local needs. In the longer term this policy will benefit

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11 of 17students and the teaching profession.ReferencesAshton, P. (1996). Improving the preparation of tea chers. Educational Researcher. Vol. 25, No. 9, pp. 21-22.Beaudin, B. (1993). Teachers who interrupt their ca reers: Characteristics of those who return to the classroom. Educational Evaluation and Policy An alysis. Vol. 15 No.1, pp. 51-64. Beaudin, B. (1995). Former teachers who return to p ublic schools: District and teacher characteristics of teachers who return to the distr icts they left. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 462 475.Breneman, D. (1995). A State of Emergency? Higher E ducation in California. San Jose: The California Higher Education Policy Center.Darling-Hammond, L., and Hudson, L. (1990). Precoll ege science and mathematics teachers: Supply, Demand, and Quality. In Review of Research in Education (Vol. 16). Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.Glass, G., and Smith M. (1979). Meta-analysis of re search on class size and achievement. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 2-16. Greenwald, R., Hedges, L., and Laine, R. (1996). Th e effect of school resources on student achievement. Review of Educational Research. Vol. 6 6, No. 3, pp. 361-396. Hanushek, E. (1996). A more complete picture of sch ool resource policies. Review of Educational Research. Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 397-409.Hart, G. And Burr, S. (1996). A State of Emergency ... In a State of Emergency Teachers. Sacramento: California State University Institute f or Education Reform. Kirst, M., Hayward, G., and Koppich, J. (1995). Con ditions of Education in California 1994-95. Policy Paper No. PP95-4-1. Berkeley, California: Po licy Analysis for California Education (PACE), University of California.Mosteller, F., Light, R., and Sachs, J. (1996). Sus tained inquiry in education: Lessons from skill grouping and class size. Harvard Educational Review Vol. 66, No. 4, Winter 1996, pp. 797-842. National Center for Educational Statistics. (1996a) The Condition of Education 1996. Washington DC: Author.National Center for Educational Statistics. (1996b) Out-of-Field Teaching and Educational Equality. Washington DC: Author.National Center for Educational Statistics. (1996c) Projections of Education Statistics to 2006. Washington DC: Author.National Commission on Teaching and America's Futur e (1996). What Matters Most: Teaching for America's Future. New York, Teachers College, C olumbia University.

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12 of 17Reynolds, A. (1991). What is competent beginning te aching? A review of the literature. Review of Educational Research. Vol 62, No. 1, pp 1-35.Tierney, D. (1993). A study of the employment patte rns of recent graduates of California teacher education programs and the employment decisions of a selected sample of California school districts. Unpublished study. Sacramento: Californi a Commission on Teacher Credentialing. Willet. J., and Singer, J. (1991). From whether to when: New methods for studying student dropout and teacher attrition. Review of Educationa l Research. Vol 61, No. 4, pp. 407-450.Notes1. The actual graded K-12 enrollment and numbers of teachers shown in Table 3 are from the California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS) of the California Department of Education. The enrollment figures are published annually in a document entitled "California Public Schools Enrollment." The numbers of teachers are published annually in a document entitled "Count of Certificated and Classified Staff in California Pub lic School Districts." The teacher counts reflect certificated staff with classroom assignments, and exclude administrators and pupil services staff.Table 3 Actual and Projected Enrollment and Teaching StaffSchool YearGraded K-12 EnrollmentTeachersClass Size ReductionProgram 1991-925,001,670219,3531992-935,089,808220,8711993-945,166,261223,9321994-955,242,078228,2041995-965,367,926232,4881996-975,495,075238,951259,0001997-985,623,422244,532266,0001998-995,737,874249,509269,0001999-005,841,535254,017274,0002000-015,945,067258,519279,0002001-026,052,242263,179284,0002002-036,160,231267,875289,0002003-046,271,881272,730295,0002004-056,392,367277,969300,000 The projections of graded public school enrollment are published by the California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit in a document entitled "K-12 Graded Public School Enrollment by Ethnicity, History, and Projec tion 1995 Series." The projections are based on a grade-progression ratio (or cohort survi val) projection method and the most recent ten years of historical enrollment data from CBEDS.

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13 of 172. Counts of new retirants from K-12 districts from 1990 through 1995 were obtained by special request in February, 1996 from the California State Teachers Retirement System (CSTRS). The counts are cumulated over fiscal years ending June 30. Unlike the counts regularly published in the CSTRS annual report which include community col lege district staff, these data reflect certificated staff in K-12 districts only. Teachers make up 92 percent of all employed certificated staff according to published California Department of Education statistics. Therefore the number of retired teachers is estimated as 92 percent of a ll K-12 retired certificated staff counted by CSTRS.3. Counts of teachers were obtained from a direct t abulation of the results of the annual Professional Assignment Information Form (PAIF), an annual survey conducted as a part of CBEDS. The information requested on the PAIF is req uired of each certificated staff, and includes demographics, assignments, and position/cr edentials. A "first-time" teacher is operationally defined as someone whose primary assi gnment is teaching and who reports being both new to the teaching profession and new to the district. The CBEDS PAIF file does not include individual ide ntifiers so that teachers cannot be tracked from year to year. It is possible to estima te cohort attrition by counting the number of teachers who report being their second year both at the district and in the profession, in their third year, fourth year, and so on. Unfortunately, this m ethod does not account for those teachers who transfer from one school district to another, re en trants, or those who accept administrative jobs. The method of estimating attrition therefore underc ounts the number of teachers who remain in the profession. On the other hand, when a teacher a ccepts a promotion or leaves for another district, a school district must recruit, select, a nd induct another teacher in order to fill the vacancy. Cross district mobility within the teachin g profession has costs which are similar to those caused by attrition.4. Table 4 contains actual counts of the number of teachers who reported that they were new to service and new to a district, who reported two yea rs of service in a district and overall, and so on, up through five years. The counts are arranged so that the size of an hypothetical cohort can be followed across a row. The Professional Assignme nt Information Survey was not conducted in 1992, so data from that year are not available. The consequence is that survival and hazard rates for the 1992 cohort cannot be estimated.Table 4 Actual Counts of Teachers by Years of ServiceCohortYear FirstYear SecondYear ThirdYear FourthYear FifthYear 19879,0257,3176,4505,7295,235 19888,3017,2426,4335,865n/a 19899,4468,1517,212n/a6,208 199011,52310,076n/a8,0027,471 199112,153n/a8,9308,2757,505 1992n/a7,6587,2356,4825,792 19939,4368,4597,3316,444

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14 of 17199412,53010,4399,916199514,09010,504199613,528 An exponential regression procedure was used to est imate the number of years the average teacher remains in the classroom. The independent v ariable was the number of years survived, ranging from 2 to 5. The dependent variable was the probability of survival associated with that particular number of years. Each cohort furnished u p to four pairs of such numbers, depending on the starting year, which ranged from 1986-87 throug h 1995-96. The Excel logest function estimated the parameters for the model Y = B*M^X, w ith B = 1.026, and M = 0.904. The regression model estimates retention at 83.9 percen t at the beginning of the second year, 75.9 at the beginning of the third, 68.6 for the fourth, 62 .0 for the fifth, 50.7 for the fifth, and 45.9 for the sixth. It appears that about half of the cohort rem ains at the beginning of the seventh year. Similar techniques can be used to estimate the annu al rate of teacher attrition. Empirical hazard probabilities (the conditional probability t hat a teacher will leave, given that he or she survived through the end of the previous year) are calculated and used to fit an exponential regression model similar to the one used above to e stimate survival rates. The parameter estimates for this model were B = 0.145, and M = 0. 892. The fitted regression models are used to estimate survival and hazard probabilities for year s 2 through 30. A weighted average of the hazard probabilities is calculated, using the survi val probabilities as weights. The survival probability is interpreted as an estimate of the pe rcentage contribution of an historical cohort to the current population of teachers. The associated hazard probability is the likelihood of attrition from that cohort. The weighted average was 6.0 perc ent, estimating the annual rate of teacher attrition. One caution is that this estimate relies on extrapolation of statistics beyond the range of available data. On the other hand, the result is id entical to the annual attrition rate cited by Willett and Singer (1991, p. 410) for the United St ates as a whole and in various individual states.5. The numbers of undergraduate degrees from 1989-9 0 through 1994-95 are taken from a report, "The Performance of California Higher Education," p roduced annually by the California Postsecondary Education Commission. The counts incl ude degrees produced by the University of California, the California State University, and by accredited California independent colleges and universities. The actual counts of high school graduates are take n from CBEDS K-12 enrollment reports, as described in Note 1. The projections of high school graduates are published by the California Department of Finance Demographic Resear ch Unit in a document entitled "K-12 Public High School Graduates by Ethnicity, History, and Projection 1995 Series." The projections are based on a grade-progression ratio (or cohort survival) projection method and the most recent ten years of historical enrollment data from CBEDS. An unknown number of students who enroll at Califor nia colleges and universities and earn undergraduate degrees come from private school s in California, or from schools out of state. Equally unknown is the number of people who complet e an undergraduate degree in California and leave the state, or who complete a degree elsew here and move to California. Even so, it appears that the bulk of teachers employed in Calif ornia also received their undergraduate education in-state. Table 3, which includes counts of out-of-state applicants appears to support this assumption.

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15 of 17 The ratio of graduates to degrees, while providing a basis for making projections, simplifies a complex situation. Production of under graduate degrees depends not only the number of potential degree seekers, but also on the level of resources that colleges and universities have to serve students, and on the goa ls of high school graduates. The ratio appears to be quite stable over the years covered in Table 3, and the correlation between graduates and degrees is quite stable. 6. The counts of first time and new credentials wer e obtained directly from the Credential Automation System, a database which is maintained b y the California Commission on Teacher Credentialing. Although records are kept of credent ial and permit issuances, no records are kept of actual public school employment. The number of n ew or first-time credentials is an approximate count of the number of people receiving credentials. A few individuals may receive more than one new or first-time credential. It is p ossible that a person could receive a credential to work in one area, but then receive an emergency permit to teach in another subject. Although most people with emergency permits have pending job offers, it is also possible that some may not actually report for work.About the AuthorMark Eric Fetler, Ph.D.California Commission on Teacher Credentialing1812 Ninth StreetSacramento, CA 95814(916) 445-3223 mfetler@ctc.ca.gov Employment Experience Consultant. California Commission on Teacher Creden tialing. 1995 present. Plan, organize and conduct research on teacher credential examinations, including the California Basic Education Skills Test. Contract management fo r the Multiple Subjects Assessment for Teachers. Develop and track indicators of teach er supply and demand. Director. Planning, Effectiveness and Accountabilit y Unit, Chancellor's Office, California Community Colleges. 1990 1995. Manage accountabil ity task force. Develop federal and state accountability programs. Administrator. Educational Planning and Information Center, California Department of Education. 1984 1990. Manage and develop K-12 acc ountability policies and programs. Consultant. California Assessment Program, Californ ia Department of Education. 1980 1984. Conduct research and assessment projects. Evaluation Specialist. Northwest Regional Education al Laboratory, Portland, Oregon. 1979 1980. Deliver evaluation technical assistance and training to state education agencies. Senior Staff Associate. Western Interstate Commissi on for Higher Education, Boulder, Colorado, 1978 1979. Evaluate research instrument s. EducationB.A., Pyschology, Colorado College, 1972

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16 of 17 Ph.D., Psychology, University of Colorado, 1978Study abroad in Germany at the Universities of Gtt ingen and Bielefeld Publications Authored research in peer-reviewed journals, e.g., American Educational Research Journal, Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis Applied Measurement in Education, Sex Roles and the Journal of Communication Community Service Volunteer for Elk Grove Unified School District, Bo ard member of the Elk Grove Community Planning Advisory Council, fund raiser fo r the Strauss Festival of Elk Grove, and member of the Elk Grove Rotary Club.Copyright 1997 by the Education Policy Analysis ArchivesThe World Wide Web address for the Education Policy Analysis Archives is http://olam.ed.asu.edu/epaa General questions about appropriateness of topics o r particular articles may be addressed to the Editor, Gene V Glass, glass@asu.edu or reach him at College of Education, Arizona Stat e University, Tempe, AZ 85287-2411. (602-965-2692). T he Book Review Editor is Walter E. Shepherd: shepherd@asu.edu The Commentary Editor is Casey D. Cobb: casey@olam.ed.asu.edu .EPAA Editorial Board Michael W. Apple University of Wisconsin Greg Camilli Rutgers University John Covaleskie Northern Michigan University Andrew Coulson a_coulson@msn.com Alan Davis University of Colorado, Denver Sherman Dorn University of South Florida Mark E. Fetler California Commission on Teacher Credentialing Richard Garlikov hmwkhelp@scott.net Thomas F. Green Syracuse University Alison I. Griffith York University Arlen Gullickson Western Michigan University Ernest R. House University of Colorado Aimee Howley Marshall University Craig B. Howley Appalachia Educational Laboratory William Hunter University of Calgary Richard M. Jaeger University of North Carolina--Greensboro

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17 of 17 Daniel Kalls Ume University Benjamin Levin University of Manitoba Thomas Mauhs-Pugh Rocky Mountain College Dewayne Matthews Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education William McInerney Purdue University Mary P. McKeown Arizona Board of Regents Les McLean University of Toronto Susan Bobbitt Nolen University of Washington Anne L. Pemberton apembert@pen.k12.va.us Hugh G. Petrie SUNY Buffalo Richard C. Richardson Arizona State University Anthony G. Rud Jr. Purdue University Dennis Sayers University of California at Davis Jay D. Scribner University of Texas at Austin Michael Scriven scriven@aol.com Robert E. Stake University of Illinois--UC Robert Stonehill U.S. Department of Education Robert T. Stout Arizona State University


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