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Reconstructing 20th century SST variability in the southwest pacific

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Title:
Reconstructing 20th century SST variability in the southwest pacific a replication study using multiple coral SrCa records from New Caledonia
Physical Description:
Book
Language:
English
Creator:
DeLong, Kristine L
Publisher:
University of South Florida
Place of Publication:
Tampa, Fla
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Paleoclimate
Oxygen
Isotopes
Carbon isotopes
Sr/Ca
Scleroclimatology
Sclerochronology
Tropical climatology
Dissertations, Academic -- Marine Science -- Masters -- USF
Genre:
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
ABSTRACT: Coral-based climate reconstructions typically have not used multiple cores from a region to capture and replicate a climate signal largely because of concerns focused on coral conservation, analytical expense, and time constraints. Coral Sr/Ca reproducibility through the 20th century was investigated using three intra-colony and three inter-colony coral records, from the reefs offshore of Amédée Island, New Caledonia. Different sampling resolutions were examined in coral Sr/Ca (fortnightly and monthly) and delta 18O (fortnightly, monthly, and seasonally) as well as similar scale subsampling of the daily in situ SST record. The mean coral Sr/Ca, delta 18O, and daily SST values do not change as a function of sampling resolution. The coral Sr/Ca signal is highly reproducible; the average absolute offset between coeval Sr/Ca determinations between any two coral Sr/Ca time series is 0.036 mmol/mol (approximately 0.65°C), which is less than twice the analytical precision o f the coral Sr/Ca measurements. The stack average of the monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and monthly anomalies are significantly correlated with monthly in situ SST (r equals -0.95, -0.56, respectively) for the period 1967 to 1992 and monthly 1-degree gridded SST data product (r equals -0.95, -0.53, respectively) for the period 1900 to 1999. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction exhibits decadal-scale fluctuations that exceed those observed in the gridded SST time series, which may reflect true differences between the SST at a shallow reef site and those averaged over a 1-degree grid box or they may reflect inadequacies in the methodology used to create the gridded SST product when few observations are available. A warming trend of approximately 0.6°C is observed in the coral Sr/Ca-SST record. Monthly coral Sr/Ca records and seasonally resolved coral delta 18O record from this site share variance in the latter half of the 20th century, but not in the early 20th century, suggestive of a ^change in seawater delta 18O.
Thesis:
Thesis (M.S.)--University of South Florida, 2006.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references.
System Details:
System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.
System Details:
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Kristine L. DeLong.
General Note:
Title from PDF of title page.
General Note:
Document formatted into pages; contains 111 pages.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001913993
oclc - 174969719
usfldc doi - E14-SFE0001734
usfldc handle - e14.1734
System ID:
SFS0026052:00001


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Reconstructing 20th century SST variability in the southwest pacific :
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by Kristine L. DeLong.
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University of South Florida,
2006.
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ABSTRACT: Coral-based climate reconstructions typically have not used multiple cores from a region to capture and replicate a climate signal largely because of concerns focused on coral conservation, analytical expense, and time constraints. Coral Sr/Ca reproducibility through the 20th century was investigated using three intra-colony and three inter-colony coral records, from the reefs offshore of Amde Island, New Caledonia. Different sampling resolutions were examined in coral Sr/Ca (fortnightly and monthly) and delta 18O (fortnightly, monthly, and seasonally) as well as similar scale subsampling of the daily in situ SST record. The mean coral Sr/Ca, delta 18O, and daily SST values do not change as a function of sampling resolution. The coral Sr/Ca signal is highly reproducible; the average absolute offset between coeval Sr/Ca determinations between any two coral Sr/Ca time series is 0.036 mmol/mol (approximately 0.65¨C), which is less than twice the analytical precision o f the coral Sr/Ca measurements. The stack average of the monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and monthly anomalies are significantly correlated with monthly in situ SST (r equals -0.95, -0.56, respectively) for the period 1967 to 1992 and monthly 1-degree gridded SST data product (r equals -0.95, -0.53, respectively) for the period 1900 to 1999. The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction exhibits decadal-scale fluctuations that exceed those observed in the gridded SST time series, which may reflect true differences between the SST at a shallow reef site and those averaged over a 1-degree grid box or they may reflect inadequacies in the methodology used to create the gridded SST product when few observations are available. A warming trend of approximately 0.6¨C is observed in the coral Sr/Ca-SST record. Monthly coral Sr/Ca records and seasonally resolved coral delta 18O record from this site share variance in the latter half of the 20th century, but not in the early 20th century, suggestive of a ^change in seawater delta 18O.
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Paleoclimate.
Oxygen.
Isotopes.
Carbon isotopes.
Sr/Ca.
Scleroclimatology.
Sclerochronology.
Tropical climatology.
690
Dissertations, Academic
z USF
x Marine Science
Masters.
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t USF Electronic Theses and Dissertations.
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u http://digital.lib.usf.edu/?e14.1734



PAGE 1

R e c ons t r uc t i ng 20t h C e nt ur y S S T V a r i a bi l i t y i n t h e S out hw e s t P a c i f i c : A R e pl i c a t i on S t udy U s i ng M ul t i pl e C or a l S r / C a R e c or ds F r om N e w C a l e doni a by K r i s t i ne L D e L ong A t he s i s s ubm i t t e d i n pa r t i a l f ul f i l l m e nt of t he r e qui r e m e nt s f or t he de g r e e of M a s t e r of S c i e nc e C ol l e ge of M a r i ne S c i e nc e U ni ve r s i t y of S ou t h F l o r i da M a j or P r of e s s or : T e r r e nc e M Q ui nn P h. D B e nj a m i n P F l ow e r P h. D D a vi d J H ol l a nde r P h D G a r y T M i t c hum P h. D D a t e of A ppr ova l : S e pt e m be r 19, 2006 K e yw or ds : pa l e oc l i m a t e oxyge n i s ot ope s c a r bon i s ot ope s S r / C a s c l e r oc l i m a t ol ogy, s c l e r oc hr onol ogy, t r op i c a l c l i m a t ol ogy C opyr i ght 2006 K r i s t i ne L D e L ong

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A c know l e dge m e nt s I w oul d l i ke t o t ha nk m y a dvi s or D r T e r r y Q ui nn f or hi s s uppor t a nd f or gi vi ng m e t he oppor t uni t y t o e xpl or e m y c a pa bi l i t i e s i n r e s e a r c h s c i e nc e A ddi t i ona l t ha nks t o m y c om m i t t e e m e m be r s D r B e n F l ow e r D r D a vi d H ol l a nde r a nd D r G a r y M i t c hum f or t he i r gui da nc e a nd i ns i ght s i nt o m y pr oj e c t I w oul d l i ke t o e xpr e s s a ddi t i ona l t ha nks t o D r G a r y M i t c hum f or hi s he l p w i t h t he qua nt i t a t i ve a na l ys i s of m y da t a A ddi t i ona l a s s i s t a nc e w a s pr ovi de d by D r F r e d T a yl o r D r T hi e r r y C or r ge a nd D r T om C r ow l e y. I w oul d l i ke t o t ha nk M r E t ha n G odda r d f or hi s a s s i s t a nc e a nd a na l yt i c a l know l e dge i n he l pi ng m e a na l yz e s a m pl e s i n t he U S F P a l e oc l i m a t ol ogy, P a l e oc e a nogr a phy, a nd B i oge oc he m i s t r y L a bor a t or y. A ddi t i ona l a c know l e dge m e nt s t o t he P a l e oc l i m a t ol ogy 2003 c l a s s f or t he i r pa r t i c i pa t i on i n t he c l a s s pr oj e c t w hi c h c ont r i but e d t o t h i s w or k. T he s uppor t of m y f e l l ow c or a l pa l e oc l i m a t e s t ude nt s D r H a l i K i l bour ne D r J e nni f e r S m i t h M s C hr i s t i ne S t a i r M r C hr i s t ophe r M a upi n, M s C hr i s t y S t e pha ns a nd M s J unhua L i u, ha s be e n i nva l ua bl e t o m e a s w e l l a s t he ot he r t he c a m a r a de r i e s ha r e d w i t h t he ot he r m e m be r s of t he P a l e o l a b. I w oul d l i ke t o t ha nk D r P e t e r B e t z e r a nd t he C ol l e ge of M a r i ne S c i e nc e f or p r ovi di ng a t op not c h l e a r ni ng f a c i l i t y a nd t he C a r l R i ggs E ndow e d F e l l ow s hi p f or s uppor t i ng m y r e s e a r c h. L a s t l y, I m us t t ha nk m y s i s t e r K i m f o r put t i ng up w i t h m e m y f a m i l y a nd f r i e nds f o r t he i r s uppor t a nd m y c a t s f o r ke e pi ng m e c om pa ny dur i ng l ong ni ght s w or ki ng on m y c om put e r

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N ot e t o R e a de r T he or i gi na l of t hi s doc um e nt c ont a i ns c ol or t ha t i s ne c e s s a r y f or unde r s t a ndi ng t he da t a T he or i gi na l t he s i s i s on f i l e w i t h t he U S F l i br a r y i n T a m pa F l or i da

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i T a bl e of C ont e nt s L i s t of T a bl e s i i i L i s t of F i gur e s i v A bs t r a c t v 1. I nt r oduc t i on 1 2. S t udy A r e a 8 3. M e t hods 12 3. 1 C or a l R e c or ds E xa m i ne d 12 3. 2 C or a l S a m pl i ng 13 3. 3 G e oc he m i c a l A na l ys i s 14 3. 4 S c l e r oc hr ono l ogy 15 3. 5 D a t a A na l y s i s 16 4. R e s ul t s 20 4. 1 M ul t i pl e S a m pl i ng R e s ol ut i ons 20 4. 2 R e pl i c a t i on of C or a l S r / C a V a r i a t i ons 21 4. 3 S t a bl e I s ot ope s of O xyge n a nd C a r bon 25 4. 4 C or a l G e oc he m i s t r y a nd S S T 26 5. D i s c us s i on 28 5. 1 S a m pl i ng R e s ol ut i on 28 5. 2 R e pl i c a t i on of C or a l S r / C a V a r i a t i ons 33 5. 3 C om pa r i s on w i t h D e ndr oc hr onol ogy M e t hods 36 5. 4 C or a l S r / C a R e l a t i ons hi p w i t h S S T 38 5. 5 C a l i br a t i on a nd V e r i f i c a t i on 46 5. 6 C or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O V a r i a t i ons 49 6. C onc l us i ons 53 T a bl e s a nd F i gur e s 56 R e f e r e nc e s C i t e d 93 A ppe ndi c e s 104

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i i A ppe ndi x A : A ddi t i ona l c or a l ge oc he m i c a l va r i a t i ons f r om pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 B 105 A ppe ndi x B : I nt r a c ol ony a nd i n t e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 106 A ppe ndi x C : I nt r a c ol ony a nd i n t e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f r o m A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 108 A ppe ndi x D : P a i r e d a na l ys i s of c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O t o e s t i m a t e s e a w a t e r 1 8 O 110

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i i i L i s t of T a bl e s T a bl e 1. S um m a r y of r e pl i c a t i on s t udi e s f or c o r a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons 57 T a bl e 2. S um m a r y of c or a l ba s e d pa l e oc l i m a t ol ogi c a l s t udi e s a t A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 59 T a bl e 3. M ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons c om pa r e d be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs 60 T a bl e 4. F i l t e r e d da i l y i n s i t u S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s ( C ) 61 T a bl e 5. C or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) r e pl i c a t i on be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A C 1 A 62 T a bl e 6. C or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) r e pl i c a t i on be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 A a nd 92 P A A 1 B 62 T a bl e 7. M ont hl y c or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m o l ) de t e r m i na t i ons f r om f i ve c o r a l r e c or ds f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 63 T a bl e 8. M ont hl y c or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m o l ) de t e r m i na t i ons f r om f i ve c o r a l r e c or ds f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y 64 T a bl e 9. C or r e l a t i on be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i on s a nd S S T f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 6 5 T a bl e 10. C or r e l a t i on be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i on s a nd S S T f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y 66 T a bl e 11. A ve r a ge a bs ol ut e of f s e t ( a vg a b s ) be t w e e n m on t hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons ( m m ol / m ol ) f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y 67 T a bl e 12. C or r e l a t i on be t w e e n a nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons a nd S S T f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y 67 T a bl e 13. C or a l S r / C a t o S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons f or N e w C a l e doni a 68 T a bl e 14. C a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on s t a t i s t i c s f or c o r a l S r / C a S S T de t e r m i ne d by M L E 69

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i v L i s t of F i gur e s F i gur e 1 M a p of t he S out hw e s t P a c i f i c N e w C a l e doni a a nd A m d e I s l a nd 70 F i gur e 2. M ont hl y c l i m a t ol ogy f o r A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 71 F i gur e 3. F i l t e r e d da i l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 72 F i gur e 4. C or a l c or e s s a m pl e d i n t hi s s t udy 73 F i gur e 5. C ont i nuous r out i ng m e t hod us e d i n c or a l s a m pl i ng 76 F i gur e 6. P a r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on 92 P A C 1 A 77 F i gur e 7. P a r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 A a nd 92 P A A 1 B 78 F i gur e 8. S c a nne d i m a ge s of t he o r i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de ( bot t om ) a nd t he oppos i ng s i de ( t op) o f 92 P A A 1 B 79 F i gur e 9. C or a l X r a di ogr a ph w i t h m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng pa t hs on 92 P A A 1 B 80 F i gur e 10. S a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on c om pa r i s on be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A A 1 B 81 F i gur e 11. I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 82 F i gur e 12. I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a a nom a l i e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a 84 F i gur e 13. M ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd 1 8 O S S T a nom a l i e s c om pa r e d w i t h S S T 86 F i gur e 14. A nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a S S T va r i a t i ons f or A m d e I s l a nd 88 F i gur e 15. E xpr e s s e d popul a t i on s i gna l ( E P S ) f o r c or a l pa l e oc l i m a t ol ogi c a l r e c ons t r uc t i ons 89 F i gur e 16. R e gr e s s i on of t he c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w i t h i n s i t u S S T 90 F i gur e 1 7. C a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on of t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on 91

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v R e c ons t r uc t i ng 20t h C e nt ur y S S T V a r i a bi l i t y i n t h e S out hw e s t P a c i f i c : A R e pl i c a t i on S t udy U s i ng M ul t i pl e C or a l S r / C a R e c or ds f r om N e w C a l e doni a K r i s t i ne L D e L ong A B S T R A C T C or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons t ypi c a l l y ha ve not us e d m ul t i p l e c or e s f r om a r e gi on t o c a pt ur e a nd r e pl i c a t e a c l i m a t e s i gna l l a r ge l y be c a us e of c onc e r ns f oc us e d on c or a l c ons e r va t i on, a na l yt i c a l e xpe ns e a nd t i m e c o ns t r a i nt s C or a l S r / C a r e pr oduc i bi l i t y t hr ough t he 20 t h c e nt ur y w a s i nve s t i ga t e d us i ng t h r e e i nt r a c ol ony a nd t hr e e i nt e r c ol ony c or a l r e c or ds f r om t he r e e f s of f s hor e o f A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a D i f f e r e nt s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons w e r e e xa m i ne d i n c o r a l S r / C a ( f o r t ni ght l y a nd m ont hl y ) a n d 1 8 O ( f or t ni ght l y m ont hl y, a nd s e a s ona l l y) a s w e l l a s s i m i l a r s c a l e s ubs a m pl i ng of t he da i l y i n s i t u S S T r e c or d. T he m e a n c o r a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd da i l y S S T va l ue s do not c ha nge a s a f unc t i on of s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on. T he c or a l S r / C a s i gna l i s hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e ; t he a ve r a ge a bs ol ut e of f s e t be t w e e n c oe va l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons be t w e e n a ny t w o c or a l S r / C a t i m e s e r i e s i s 0 036 m m ol / m ol ( ~ 0. 65 C ) w hi c h i s l e s s t ha n t w i c e t he a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on of t he c or a l S r / C a m e a s ur e m e nt s T he s t a c k a ve r a ge of t he m on t hl y c o r a l S r / C a

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vi va r i a t i ons a nd m ont hl y a nom a l i e s a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h m ont hl y i n s i t u S S T ( r = 0 95, 0. 56 r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0. 05 n = 304) f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 a nd m ont hl y 1 gr i dde d S S T da t a p r oduc t ( r = 0 95, 0 53, r e s pe c t i ve l y p < 0. 05 n = 1198) f or t he pe r i od 1900 t o 1999. T he c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c ons t r uc t i on e xhi bi t s de c a da l s c a l e f l uc t ua t i ons t ha t e xc e e d t hos e obs e r ve d i n t he gr i d de d S S T t i m e s e r i e s w hi c h m a y r e f l e c t t r ue di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t he S S T a t a s ha l l ow r e e f s i t e a nd t hos e a ve r a ge d ove r a 1 g r i d box or t he y m a y r e f l e c t i na de qua c i e s i n t he m e t hodol ogy us e d t o c r e a t e t he gr i dde d S S T pr oduc t w he n f e w obs e r va t i ons a r e a va i l a bl e A w a r m i ng t r e nd of ~ 0. 6 C i s obs e r ve d i n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c or d M ont hl y c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a nd s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f r om t hi s s i t e s ha r e va r i a nc e i n t he l a t t e r ha l f o f t he 20t h c e nt ur y bu t not i n t he e a r l y 20t h c e nt ur y, s ugge s t i ve of a c ha nge i n s e a w a t e r 1 8 O

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1 1. I nt r oduc t i on C or a l s c l e r oc l i m a t ol ogy, t he us e of c o r a l s a s a pr o xy i ndi c a t or o f c l i m a t e va r i a bi l i t y [ G agan e t al 1997; C r oni n 1999 ] i s a r e l a t i ve l y young f i e l d of s t udy c om pa r e d t o t he c e nt u r y ol d s t udy of c l i m a t e us i ng t r e e r i ngs ( i e de ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy ) a nd t he s e t w o f i e l ds of s t udy s ha r e m a ny s i m i l a r i t i e s A r e c or d of c l i m a t e va r i a t i on c a n be r e c ons t r uc t e d f r om t r e e s a nd m a s s i ve c or a l s be c a us e m a ny t r e e s pe c i e s a nd m a s s i ve c or a l s ha ve l ong l i f e s pa ns t ha t of t e n e xc e e d 100 y e a r s bot h ha ve g r ow t h r e c or de d i n a nnua l b a nds bot h a r e a m e na bl e t o a bs ol ut e da t i ng by c ount i ng a nnua l gr ow t h ba nds a nd bot h a r e a m e na bl e t o ge oc he m i c a l s t udi e s T he s e t w o c l i m a t e pr oxi e s ha ve s uc c e s s f ul l y be e n us e d t o ge ne r a t e c l i m a t e r e c or ds t ha t a r e hi gh l y r e s ol ve d ( 1 ye a r ) a nd s pa n m a ny c e nt ur i e s T he s i m i l a r i t i e s be t w e e n c or a l s c l e r oc l i m a t ol ogy a nd de ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy ha ve l e a d t o t he s ugge s t i on t o a ppl y pr ove n t r e e r i ng m e t hodol ogi e s t o c or a l ba s e d s t udi e s i n or de r t o i m pr ove c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i o ns [ e g. D unbar a nd C ol e 1992; B r i f f a 1995; C ook 1995 ; B ar ne s and L ough 1996 ; D unbar and C ol e 1996; D r uf f e l 1997; L ough and B ar ne s 1997; C r ow l e y e t al 19 99; T r e nbe r t h and O t t o B l i e s ne r 2003; L ough 2004] H ow e ve r t he s t r a i ght f o r w a r d a ppl i c a t i on of t r e e r i ng m e t hodol ogi e s t o c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons ha s l i m i t a t i ons D e ndr oc l i m a t ol ogi s t s ha ve r e l a t i ve l y ope n a c c e s s t o t he i r p r oxy, r e l a t i ve l y unc om pl i c a t e d s a m pl i ng pr oc e dur e s a nd r e l a t i ve l y e c onom i c a l a n a l yt i c a l e xpe ns e s ; w he r e a s s c l e r oc l i m a t ol ogi s t s ha ve l i m i t e d a c c e s s t o t he i r pr oxy on a c c ount of c or a l c ons e r va t i on c onc e r ns c ha l l e ngi ng s a m pl i ng pr oc e dur e s due t o t he c or a l s ha bi t a t a nd a na l yt i c a l

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2 l i m i t a t i ons ow i ng t o ge oc he m i c a l a na l ys i s e xpe ns e a nd t i m e c ons t r a i nt s D e s pi t e t he s e c ha l l e nge s pa l e oc l i m a t ol ogi s t s ha ve be gun t o a ppl y m e t hodol ogi e s f r om de ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy t o c o r a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons I n i t i a l a ppl i c a t i ons of f ou r s t a nda r d t r e e r i ng m e t hodol ogi e s i n c or a l s t udi e s i nc l ude : 1) c hr ono l ogy ve r i f i c a t i on us i ng c r os s da t i ng of c on c ur r e nt r e c or ds [ e g. D od ge and L ang 1983; C ol e e t al 1993; G ui l de r s on and Sc hr ag 1999; L i ns l e y e t al 1999 ; L i ns l e y e t al 2000; U r ban, e t al 2000; H e ndy e t al 2003; L i ns l e y e t al 2006 ] ; 2 ) m e r gi ng o f s uc c e s s i ve i ndi vi dua l c or a l r e c or ds i nt o one e xt e nde d r e c or d [ e g D unbar e t al 1994; C obb, e t al 2003b] ; 3) c a l i br a t i on ve r i f i c a t i on of t he c or a l c l i m a t e s i gna l r e c ons t r uc t i on [ e g. C r ow l e y e t al 1999; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002; St e phans e t al 2004; O ur ba k e t al 2006; Sm i t h, e t al 2006] ; a nd 4) t he r e pl i c a t i on of c oe va l r e c or ds t o ve r i f y a c om m on c l i m a t e s i gna l be t w e e n r e c or ds [ e g C ol e e t al 1993; T udhope e t al 1996; F e l i s e t al 2003; St e phans e t al 2004; L i ns l e y e t al 2006] T he e s t a bl i s hm e nt of a n a c c ur a t e c hr onol ogy i s e s s e nt i a l t o a ny pa l e oc l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i on w he t he r t he c h r onol ogy i s f or a s i ng l e c or a l c or e o r m a ny c or e s s pa nni ng c e nt ur i e s K nut s on e t al [ 1972] r e c ogni z e d a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds i n t he X r a di ogr a phs o f m a s s i ve c or a l s a nd s ugge s t e d t he us e of m a s s i ve c or a l s a s pr oxy c l i m a t e r e c or de r s T ypi c a l l y, c o r a l c hr onol ogi e s a r e e s t a bl i s he d by c ount i ng t he a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds vi s i bl e i n X r a di og r a phs a nd ve r i f i e d a ga i ns t e i t he r 1 ) t he a nnua l c yc l i c i t y i n s ke l e t a l ge oc he m i s t r y ( 1 8 O 1 3 C o r S r / C a ) [ e g. D unbar e t al 1994; L i ns l e y e t al 1999 ] ; 2 ) a ppl i c a bl e c l i m a t e i ndi c e s s uc h a s t he S out he r n O s c i l l a t i on I nde x ( S O I ) a nd E l N i o S out he r n O s c i l l a t i on ( E N S O ) [ e g G ui l de r s on and Sc hr ag 1999 ; C obb, e t al 2003b ] ; or 3) r e c or ds of vol c a ni c e r upt i ons [ e g C r ow l e y e t al 1997] C r os s da t i ng i s pos s i bl e

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3 w i t h t w o or m or e c or a l r e c or ds a nd c a n be us e d t o e s t i m a t e t he a c c ur a c y of c ount i ng a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds i n a s i ngl e c or a l r e c or d [ e g C ol e e t al 1993; G ui l de r s on and Sc hr ag 1999; L i ns l e y e t al 2000; U r ban, e t al 2 000; H e ndy e t al 2002; C obb, e t al 2003b; L i ns l e y e t al 2006 ] I n a ddi t i on t o a nnua l de ns i t y ba nd c ount i ng, r a di o i s ot ope da t i ng c a n be a ppl i e d t o c or a l s of unknow n a ge C obb e t al [ 2003a ] da t e d f os s i l c or a l s f r om P a l m yr a I s l a nd ( C e nt r a l P a c i f i c ) by hi gh p r e c i s i on U / T h t e c hni que s a nd c onc a t e na t e d i ndi vi dua l ove r l a ppi ng r e c or ds i nt o a w e l l r e pl i c a t e d, e xt e nde d r e c or d of m ont hl y r e s ol ve d E N S O va r i a bi l i t y ove r t he pa s t 1 100 ye a r s [ C obb, e t al 2003b] O nc e t he c hr onol ogy i s e s t a bl i s he d, a c or a l va r i a bl e ( i e l i ne a r e xt e ns i on, de ns i t y, 1 8 O or S r / C a ) i s m e a s ur e d a nd a t r a ns f e r f unc t i on or c a l i b r a t i on i s de t e r m i ne d t o t r a ns l a t e t he pr oxy va r i a t i ons t o c l i m a t i c va r i a t i ons ( i e t e m pe r a t ur e or p r e c i pi t a t i on) ove r a c om m on t i m e pe r i od or c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l T he r e gr e s s i on m e t hods us e d i n de t e r m i ni ng c a l i br a t i ons i n t r e e r i ng a nd c or a l s t ud i e s di f f e r ; how e ve r t he s t a t i s t i c a l a ppr oa c he s f or ve r i f i c a t i on c a n be us e d w i t h bot h c or a l s a nd t r e e r i ngs [ B r i f f a 1995 ; C ook 1995; C r ow l e y e t al 1999; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002] F r i t t s e t al [ 1979] pr e s e nt e d c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e c hni que s f or de ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy t o t e s t c a l i b r a t e d pr oxy va r i a t i ons a ga i ns t a n i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t i n or de r t o a s s e s s r e l i a bi l i t y of t he r e c ons t r uc t i on i ns i de a nd out s i de t he c a l i b r a t i on i n t e r va l S our c e s of i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t s i nc l ude m e t e or ol ogi c a l / oc e a nogr a phi c o bs e r va t i ons ot he r pr oxy da t a a nd h i s t or i c a l obs e r va t i ons F r i t t s e t al [ 1979 ] r e c ogni z e d t ha t f or s om e l oc a t i ons t w o i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t s m a y not be a va i l a bl e a nd t he y s ugge s t s pl i t t i ng t he c a l i b r a t i on c l i m a t e da t a s e t t o c r e a t e a c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l a nd a ve r i f i c a t i on i nt e r va l T he a va i l a bi l i t y of t w o l oc a l c l i m a t e da t a s e t s f or m os t c or a l s t udi e s i s qui t e unl i ke l y a nd m a ny c or a l s t udi e s do not

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4 ha ve a ny l oc a l c l i m a t e obs e r va t i ons C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999 ] s ugge s t e d c or a l ba s e d s t udi e s m a ke us e of da t a f r om a l oc a l gr i d e xt r a c t e d f r om gl oba l da t a ba s e s s uc h a s H a dI S S T [ R ay ne r e t a l 2003] G I S S T [ P ar k e r e t al 1995 ] E R S S T [ Sm i t h and R e y nol ds 2004] a nd C O A D S [ W oodr uf f e t al 1998] f or c a l i br a t i o n a nd ve r i f i c a t i on. G l oba l s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e ( S S T ) da t a s e t s t ypi c a l l y s pa n t he l a s t 120 ye a r s a nd c a n be s pl i t i nt o l ong c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on i nt e r va l s A dd i t i ona l l y t he S S T da t a s e t s c a n be us e d t o a s s e s s w he t he r t he c or a l va r i a t i ons a r e r e c or di ng a l oc a l c l i m a t e s i gna l or l a r ge r s c a l e c l i m a t e va r i a bi l i t y [ C r ow l e y e t al 1999 ] F r i t t s e t al [ 1979 ] r e c om m e nde d a ddi t i ona l c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t s us i ng ot he r pr oxy da t a C a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i o n t e s t s i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e s t udi e s m a y i nc l ude r e pl i c a t i on of c o r a l r e c or ds a nd c om p a r i ng r e s ul t s f r o m ot he r pr oxi e s m e a s ur e d f r om t he s a m e c or a l s a m pl e s T he ne e d f or r e pl i c a t i on i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e s t udi e s w a s out l i ne d i n L ough e t al [ 2004 ] w hi c h c om pa r e d t w e nt y pr e vi ous l y publ i s he d c or a l r e c or ds f r om t he P a c i f i c a nd f ound i nc ons i s t e nc i e s be t w e e n t he r e c or ds l e a di ng t he m t o que s t i on t he va l i di t y o f i n t e r p r e t i ng a s i ngl e l ong c o r a l r e c or d due t o t he pos s i bi l i t y of non c l i m a t i c i nf l ue nc e s dom i na t i ng t he ge oc he m i c a l r e c or d. T he c or a l ba s e d s t udi e s t ha t i nc l ude r e pl i c a t i on ha ve pr i m a r i l y f oc us e d on c l i m a t e s i gna l ve r i f i c a t i on a t e i t he r t he l oc a l l e ve l [ e g. A l i be r t a nd M c C ul l oc h 1997 ; G ui l de r s on and Sc hr ag 1999; L i ns l e y e t al 1999; L i ns l e y e t al 2000; U r ban, e t al 2000; C ar di nal e t al 2001; C obb, e t al 2003b; F e l i s e t al 2003; B agnat o, e t al 2004; St e phans e t al 2004] or t he r e gi ona l l e ve l [ e g. T udhope e t al 1 996; G agan, e t al 1998; U r ban, e t al 2000; H e ndy e t al 2002 ] ( T a bl e 1) L oc a l r e pl i c a t i on s t udi e s f or P or i t e s s pp ha ve s how n m e a n c or a l 1 8 O di f f e r e nc e s r a ngi ng f r om l e s s t ha n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 0. 05)

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5 [ C obb, e t a l 2003b] up t o 1. 28 i n t he G ul f o f A qa ba R e d S e a [ F e l i s e t al 2003 ] T he l a r ge m e a n di f f e r e nc e s obs e r v e d i n t he G ul f of A qa ba w e r e a t t r i bu t e d t o g r ow t h r a t e ( i e e xt e ns i on r a t e ) va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n c or a l s a t t hi s l oc a t i on, w he r e s l ow gr ow i ng c o r a l s yi e l de d hi ghe r m e a n c o r a l 1 8 O va l ue s [ F e l i s e t al 2003] M e a n c or a l S r / C a d i f f e r e nc e s r a nge f r om 0. 01 m m ol / m ol ~ 0 2 C f o r m on t hl y r e s ol ve d P or i t e s i n N e w C a l e doni a [ St e phans e t al 2004] t o 0 14 m m ol / m ol ~ 0 7 C f or a nnua l l y r e s ol ve d P or i t e s i n F i j i [ L i ns l e y e t al 2006] L i ns l e y e t al [ 2006] f ound hi gh c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n a nnua l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons f or c or a l s f r om t he s a m e l oc a t i on ( r 2 = 0. 60 F i j i ; r 2 = 0 50 t o 0. 60 R a r ot onga ) a nd l ow c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n a nnua l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f o r c or a l s f r om t he s a m e l oc a t i on ( r 2 = 0 22, F i j i ; r 2 = 0 006 t o 0. 18 R a r ot onga ) T he hi gh c or r e l a t i on i n t he c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons ne ga t e s gr ow t h r e l a t e d e f f e c t s be i ng t he c a us e of t he l ow S r / C a c ohe r e nc e s i nc e a na l ys e s w e r e r un f r om s pl i t s of t he s a m e s a m pl e L i ns l e y e t al [ 2006] f ound no e vi de nc e of s e c onda r y a r a goni t e i n t hi n s e c t i on a na l ys i s a nd s ugge s t e d s om e unknow n c om pl i c a t i ng f a c t or ha d i nf l ue nc e d t he c or a l S r / C a i n s om e s e c t i ons of t he c or a l r e c or d. Sm i t h e t al [ 2006] f o und a m e a n c or a l S r / C a di f f e r e nc e of 0. 04 m m ol / m ol be t w e e n t w o M ont as t r e a f av e ol at a c or e s c ol l e c t e d f r om s e pa r a t e c ol oni e s a t L ooe K e y, F l o r i da a di f f e r e nc e t ha t c oul d not b e a t t r i but e d t o gr ow t h r e l a t e d e f f e c t s ; how e ve r Sm i t h e t al [ 2006 ] f ound i ndi c a t i ons o f S r / C a va r i a t i ons i n s e a w a t e r c he m i s t r y due t o c ont i ne nt a l i n f l ue nc e s D e ndr oc l i m a t i c s t udi e s t ypi c a l l y ut i l i z e t w o c or e s f r om t he s a m e t r e e i n t he i r s t udi e s i n or de r t o c r os s ve r i f y t he a ge m ode l a nd t o pe r f or m a c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on a s s e s s m e nt of t he c l i m a t e s i gna l a t t he i ndi vi dua l l e ve l F e w c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e s t udi e s ha ve ut i l i z e d r e pl i c a t i on a t t he i n t r a c ol ony l e ve l t o c r os s ve r i f y a ge m ode l s a nd ve r i f y

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6 c a l i br a t i on of t he c l i m a t i c s i gna l a t t he c ol ony l e ve l C ol e e t al [ 1993] us e d t w o c or e s f r om t he s a m e P or i t e s c ol ony t o ve r i f y t he i r a ge m ode l a nd c om pl e t e t he i r 96 ye a r c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f r om T a r a w a A t ol l R e publ i c of K i r i ba t i a nd r e po r t e xc e l l e nt r e pl i c a t i on of 1 8 O be t w e e n ove r l a ppi ng r e gi ons be t w e e n c or e s a nd be t w e e n t r a ns e c t s on t he s a m e c or a l s l a b. A l i be r t and M c C ul l oc h [ 1997] s a m pl e d a l on g t he m a j or gr ow t h a xi s a nd t he a dj oi ni ng m a r gi n be t w e e n a dj a c e nt c or a l l i t e f a ns on a P or i t e s f r om G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f A us t r a l i a a nd doc um e nt e d a s i gni f i c a nt c ha nge i n c or a l S r / C a w hi c h t r a ns l a t e d i nt o t e m pe r a t ur e di f f e r e nc e of 1 t o 3 C f or s a m pl e s f r o m t he s a m e c ol ony. T he s e a ut hor s c onc l ude d, a s ot he r ha ve t ha t s a m pl i ng t he c or a l s ke l e t on i n a r e gi on ot he r t ha n t he m a j or gr ow t h a xi s i s t o be a voi de d. W i t h t he a ddi t i on of c o r a l t r a c e e l e m e nt a l r a t i os a s S S T p r oxi e s ( i e S r / C a M g/ C a U / C a a nd B a / C a ) i nve s t i ga t or s c a n us e b ot h c or a l t r a c e e l e m e nt va r i a t i ons a nd c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons t o pe r f or m c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t s of t he c or a l S S T s i gna l [ e g. B e c k e t al 1992; C r ow l e y e t al 1999 ; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 20 02; St e phans e t al 2004; L i ns l e y e t al 2006; Sm i t h, e t al 2006] Q ui nn and Sam ps on [ 2002 ] pe r f or m e d c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t s of f i ve c or a l ge oc he m i c a l pr oxi e s ( S r / C a M g/ C a U / C a B a / C a a nd 1 8 O ) f r om a P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l s a m pl e d of f s hor e of A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T he y f ound 1 8 O a nd S r / C a ha d t he hi ghe s t f i de l i t y w i t h S S T ( r 2 = 0. 84 1 8 O ; r 2 = 0. 84 S r / C a ) ; M g/ C a a nd U / C a ha d m ode r a t e c ohe r e nc e w i t h S S T ( r 2 = 0. 55, M g/ C a ; r 2 = 0 47, U / C a ) a nd B a / C a ha d l i t t l e c ohe r e nc e w i t h S S T [ Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002] St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] a s s e s s e d r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O be t w e e n f our c or e s ( t w o i nt r a c ol ony a nd t hr e e i nt e r c ol ony) c ol l e c t e d o f f s hor e f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a a nd f ound hi gh c or r e l a t i on ( r # 0. 80 S r / C a ; r # 0 70,

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7 1 8 O ) f o r m ont hl y a nd s e a s ona l va r i a t i ons f or t he p e r i od 1967 t o 1992. S t e phans e t al [ 2004] f ound a ddi t i ona l c onf i de nc e i n t he ge oc he m i c a l t o S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on by s t a c k a ve r a gi ng t he i ndi vi dua l r e c or ds ( r # 0. 91 S r / C a S S T ; r # 0. 87 1 8 O S S T ) a nd c onc l ude d no bi ol ogi c a l i n f l ue nc e on t he s c l e r ot he r m om e t e r ove r t he i nt e r va l e xa m i ne d a t t he i r l oc a t i on. T hi s s t udy e xpa nds upon pr e vi ous s t udi e s [ Q ui nn e t al 1996; Q ui nn, e t al 1998; C r ow l e y e t al 1999; St e phans e t al 2004 ] by us i ng f i ve c or a l c or e s t h r e e i nt r a c ol ony a nd t w o i nt e r c ol ony, f r om t he r e e f s of f s hor e of t he A m d e L i gh t hous e N e w C a l e doni a T he goa l s of t hi s s t udy i nc l ude : 1 ) e xp a ndi ng t he s a m pl e r e s ol ut i on t e s t t o c or a l S r / C a a nd t o hi ghe r r e s ol ut i on s a m pl i ng, 2 ) e xt e ndi ng t he t e s t of r e pr oduc i bi l i t y i n c or a l S r / C a t o s pa n t he e nt i r e 20t h c e nt u r y, 3) a s s e s s i ng t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d us i ng de ndr oc hr onol ogy m e t hods 4) c om pa r i ng c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons w i t h l oc a l S S T 5 ) ve r i f i c a t i on of t he c or a l S r / C a S S T c a l i br a t i on w i t h gr i dde d S S T da t a pr oduc t s f or l onge r pe r i ods of t i m e a nd 6) c om pa r i ng c or a l S r / C a t o c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons be t w e e n t hi s a nd pr e vi ous s t udi e s

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8 2. S t udy A r e a N e w C a l e doni a ( 22 S 166 E ) i s l oc a t e d i n t he s out hw e s t t r opi c a l P a c i f i c O c e a n ( F i gur e 1 ) a nd ha s a n e xt e ns i ve ba r r i e r r e e f w hi c h de ve l ope d dur i ng hi gh s t a nds of s e a l e ve l dur i ng t he l a t e Q ua t e r na r y; H ol oc e ne c or a l r e e f de ve l opm e nt s t a r t e d ~ 8500 ye a r s a go [ C abi oc h, e t al 1996 ] O c e a n c i r c ul a t i on be t w e e n t he e a s t e r n c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a a nd t he L oya l t y I s l a nds i s f r om t he no r t hw e s t t o s out he a s t ( L oya l t y C ur r e nt or V a uba n C ur r e nt ) c a r r yi ng w a r m l ow s a l i ni t y w a t e r s f r om V a nua t u i n t he nor t h [ H ni n e t al 1984; R ouge r i e 1986; H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005] U nl i ke t he pe r m a ne nt L oya l t y C ur r e nt on t he e a s t e r n c oa s t t he d i r e c t i on o f oc e a n c i r c ul a t i on a l ong t he w e s t e r n c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a va r i e s w i t h t he s t r e ngt h of t he t r a d e w i nds be t w e e n t he f l ow s t o t he nor t hw e s t a nd f l ow s t o t he s out he a s t [ H ni n, e t al 1984; H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005] N e w C a l e doni a s c l i m a t e i s t r opi c a l a nd i nf l ue nc e d by t he a nnua l va r i a t i ons i n l a t i t ude o f t he S out h P a c i f i c C onve r ge nc e Z one ( S P C Z ) t o t he nor t h a nd t he s ubt r op i c a l a nt i c yc l oni c be l t t o t he s out h [ M or l i e r e and R e be r t 1986; P e s i n e t a l 1995] N e w C a l e doni a e xpe r i e nc e s w a r m w e t s um m e r s ( J a nua r y t o M a r c h) w he n t he S P C Z i s i n i t s s out he r nm os t l oc a t i on a nd c ool d r y w i nt e r s ( J ul y t o S e pt e m be r ) w he n t he S P C Z i s i n i t s nor t he r nm os t l oc a t i on ( F i gur e 1 a nd 2) [ M or l i e r e a n d R e be r t 1986; P e s i n, e t al 1995] T he s out he a s t c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a e xpe r i e nc e s t he hi ghe s t a nnua l a ve r a ge pr e c i pi t a t i on ( > 200 c m ) a nd t he w e s t e r n c oa s t e xpe r i e nc e s t he l ow e s t a nnua l a ve r a ge pr e c i pi t a t i on ( < 130 c m ) [ M or l i e r e and R e be r t 198 6] T he e a s t s out he a s t t r a de w i nds a r e t he dom i na nt w i nd pa t t e r n ( F i gur e 1) a nd va r y s e a s ona l l y w i t h t he s t r onge s t t r a de w i nds

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9 oc c ur r i ng i n t he a us t r a l s um m e r [ P e s i n, e t a l 199 5; D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and 1997; H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005] A m d e I s l a nd ( 22 28 5 $ S 166 28 0 $ E ) i s l oc a t e d o f f t he s out hw e s t c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a 20 km s out h of N oum a be hi nd t he ba r r i e r r e e f a nd w i t hi n t he B oul a r i P a s s ( F i gur e 1 ) T he r e e f s o f f s hor e o f A m d e I s l a nd a r e w e l l ba t he d by ope n oc e a n w a t e r s a nd t he r e e f s do n ot a ppe a r t o be s ubj e c t e d t o f r e s h w a t e r i nput f r om t he m a i nl a nd [ Q ui nn, e t a l 1996; Q ui nn, e t al 1998; St e phans e t al 2 004; M ont aggi oni e t al 2006 ] T he F r e nc h r e s e a r c h gr oup I ns t i t ut de R e c he r c he pour l e D e ve l oppe m e nt ( I R D ) ha ve c ol l e c t e d da i l y S S T a nd s e a s ur f a c e s a l i ni t y ( S S S ) m e a s ur e m e nt s a t A m d e I s l a nd ( 5 m de pt h) s i nc e 1967 [ D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and, 1997 ] m a ki ng t hi s l oc a t i on w e l l s ui t e d f or a c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i on. T he m e a n a nn ua l S S T i s 23. 5 1 8 C ( 1 % ) a nd va r i e s w i t h a r e gul a r a nnua l c yc l e ; m e a n s um m e r S S T ( J a nua r y, F e br ua r y, a nd M a r c h) i s 25. 7 0 7 C ( 1 % ) a nd m e a n w i nt e r S S T ( J ul y, A u gus t a nd S e pt e m be r ) i s 21 4 0 6 C ( 1 % ) S S S va r i e s i nve r s e l y t o S S T w i t h a m i ni m u m i n s um m e r ( 35 68 0 35 ps u, 1 % ) a nd a m a xi m um i n w i nt e r ( 35. 86 0. 21 ps u, 1 % ) c or r e s pondi ng t o i nc r e a s e s a nd de c r e a s e s i n r a i nf a l l ( F i gur e 2 ) A nnua l r a i nf a l l a t A m d e I s l a nd a ve r a ge s 64 c m a nd i s l e s s t ha n t he a ve r a ge r a i nf a l l ( 107 c m ) on t he m a i nl a nd a t N ou m a [ R ouge r i e 1986; P e s i n, e t al 1995; M ont aggi oni e t al 2006 ] A s i ngl e m e a s ur e m e nt of s e a w a t e r 1 8 O f r om A m d e I s l a nd r e e f yi e l de d a va l ue 0 52 0 06 S M O W ( 2 % ) [ B e c k e t al 1992 ] T he N A S A G I S S gl oba l gr i dde d da t a s e t of oxyge n i s ot opi c c o m pos i t i on of s e a w a t e r [ L e G r ande and Sc hm i dt 2006] r e por t s a s e a w a t e r 1 8 O of 0. 61 V S M O W f or a 1 g r i d box c e nt e r e d a t 22. 5 S 165 5 E O ur bak e t al [ 2006] de t e r m i ne d t he 1 8 O of s e a w a t e r ( 1 8 O s w ) f r om s a m pl e s c ol l e c t e d m ont hl y ( J a nua r y 1999 t o 2003) a t A m d e I s l a nd ( m e a n = 0. 184

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10 0. 086 V S M O W 1 % ) a nd r e por t s t he 1 8 O s w ha s a 0. 36 m a xi m a l va r i a t i on a nd t he c or r e l a t i on ( r ) be t w e e n 1 8 O s w a nd S S S e qua l s 0. 6 2. M ont agg i oni e t al [ 2006] de t e r m i ne d t he S r c onc e nt r a t i on i n s e a w a t e r s a m pl e s a t 1 m de pt h c ol l e c t e d m ont hl y a t A m d e I s l a nd f r om A pr i l 1996 t o M a y 1998 a nd J a nua r y 2002 t o A pr i l 2003 a nd r e po r t s a m e a n S r va l ue of 8. 3 0. 2 ppm ( 1 % ) hi ghe r t ha n t he m e a n va l ue f or t r opi c a l s ur f a c e oc e a n w a t e r s ( 7. 5 ppm ) [ de V i l l i e r s 1999] T he s o ur c e of t he S r va r i a bi l i t y i s unknow n a nd ne e ds t o be a ddr e s s e d i n f u r t he r s t udi e s T he c l i m a t e of N e w C a l e doni a i s i n f l ue nc e d by P a c i f i c ba s i n w i de ( E N S O ) a nd l oc a l ( upw e l l i ng) phe nom e na D ur i ng E N S O w a r m pha s e e ve nt s ( E l N i o ) N e w C a l e doni a e xpe r i e nc e s c ool e r t e m pe r a t ur e s ( ~ 0. 5 C ) a de c r e a s e i n p r e c i pi t a t i on ( 22% on a ve r a ge ) a n i nc r e a s e i n s a l i ni t y ( ~ 0 2 ps u) a nd a s hi f t i n w i nd di r e c t i on t o s out h. O ppos i ng a nom a l i e s oc c ur dur i ng E N S O c ool pha s e e ve nt s ( L a N i a ) [ M or l i e r e and R e be r t 1986; D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and 1997] I n N e w C a l e doni a t he de c r e a s e i n pr e c i pi t a t i on be gi ns a bout t h r e e m ont hs a f t e r t he o ns e t of t he E N S O w a r m pha s e e ve nt a nd pe r s i s t s f or 12 m ont hs [ M or l i e r e and R e be r t 1 986] S S S a nom a l i e s l a g t he S O I by 8 m ont hs a t 17 S a nd 13 m ont hs a t 27 S [ D e l c r oi x a nd L e nor m and 1997] T he r e i s e vi de nc e of l oc a l upw e l l i ng e v e nt s a l ong t he w e s t e r n ba r r i e r r e e f s t ha t pe r s i s t f o r pe r i ods of da ys t o w e e ks [ H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005; A l or y e t al 2006] T he upw e l l i ng e ve nt s ha ve be e n obs e r ve d i n s a t e l l i t e i nf r a r e d i m a ge s a nd hour l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s on t he oc e a ns i de of r e e f a t U i t o 36 km nor t hw e s t of A m d e I s l a nd [ H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005] T he s out he a s t e r l y t r a de w i nds bl ow pa r a l l e l t o t he w e s t e r n c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a a nd s t r ong w i nd e ve nt s c a n i nduc e upw e l l i ng of c ool e r s a l t i e r w a t e r s f r om de pt h ( 100 m ; < 23 C ) w hi c h c ool s s ur f a c e w a t e r s a l ong t he s e a w a r d e d ge o f t he ou t e r

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11 r e e f by up t o 5 C i n t he s um m e r a nd 1 C i n t he w i nt e r [ R ouge r i e 1986; H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005] T he s e upw e l l i ng e ve n t s oc c ur o n da i l y t o w e e kl y t i m e s c a l e s [ A l or y e t al 2006] t he p r e s e nc e of upw e l l e d c ool e r w a t e r f r om de pt h m a y e xpl a i n s om e of t he di f f e r e nc e s obs e r ve d be t w e e n i n s i t u m e a s ur e m e nt s a t A m d e I s l a nd a nd ope n oc e a n m e a s ur e m e nt s ( & = 1. 5 C a nd 0. 2 ps u s a l t i e r ) [ H ni n, e t al 1984; D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and 1997] a nd t he di f f e r e nc e obs e r ve d be t w e e n i n s i t u S S T a nd t he G I S S T 2 da t a s e t [ P ar k e r e t al 1995] f or a 1 gr i d box c e nt e r e d f or A m d e I s l a nd ( & = 1 34 C ) [ C r ow l e y e t al 1999; C or r ge 2006] E xa m i na t i on of t he da i l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s f r om A m d e I s l a nd s how e d t he s a m e upw e l l i ng/ c ool i ng e ve nt s not e d by H ni n e t al [ 2005] ; how e ve r t he m a gn i t ude i s r e duc e d by a c o upl e of de gr e e s ( 3 t o 4 C vs 5 C ) T he m a gni t ude o f t he s e c ool e ve nt s di m i n i s he s t o va l ue s be t w e e n 0 t o 1 C w he n t he da i l y S S T t i m e s e r i e s i s f i l t e r e d t o m ont hl y r e s ol ut i on ( F i gu r e 3)

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12 3. M e t hods 3. 1 C or a l R e c or ds E xa m i ne d T he P or i t e s l ut e a c ol oni e s s a m pl e d i n t hi s s t u dy w e r e dr i l l e d i n < 3 m of w a t e r w i t hi n t he B oul a r i P a s s w hi c h i s a dj a c e nt t o A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a ( 22 28. 5 $ S 166 28. 0 $ E ; F i gu r e 1) [ Q ui nn e t al 1996 ; Q ui nn e t al 1998; St e phans e t al 2004 ] F our c or e s ( 92 P A A 1, 92 P A A 2 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) w e r e r e c ove r e d i n J ul y 1992 a nd a f i f t h c or e ( 99 P A A ) w a s r e c ove r e d i n D e c e m be r 1999. T hr e e c or e s ( 92 P A A 1, 92 P A A 2, a nd 99 P A A ) w e r e r e c ove r e d f r om t he s a m e m a s s i ve c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd t he ot he r t w o c or e s ( 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1) w e r e c ol l e c t e d f r om ne a r by c or a l c ol oni e s ( ~ 0. 5 km ; F i gu r e 1) F our of t he A m d e I s l a nd c or e s e x a m i ne d i n t hi s s t udy ha ve be e n s a m pl e d i n pr e vi ous s t udi e s ( T a bl e 2) Q ui nn e t al [ 1996 ] r e por t e d on c or a l 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f r om 92 P A A 1 us i ng m on t hl y r e s ol ut i on f or t he pe r i od 1952 t o 1992 Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] r e por t e d on s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f or t he r e m i nde r o f t he 92 P A A 1 c or e ( ~ 1675 t o 1952 ) C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999 ] r e por t e d on m on t hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f r om 92 P A A 1 f or t he f i r s t de c a de of t he 20t h c e nt ur y. A ddi t i ona l s t udi e s de s c r i bi ng 92 P A A 1 i nc l ude C r ow l e y e t al [ 1997] C or r ge e t al [ 2001] a nd Q ui nn and Sam ps on [ 2002 ] ( T a bl e 2 ) St e phans [ 20 03] a nd St e phans e t a l [ 2004] s a m pl e d c or e s 99 P A A 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1 w i t h ~ m ont hl y r e s ol ut i on de t e r m i ni ng c or a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f or t he p e r i od 1967 t o 1992. T hi s s t udy c ont r i but e s t o t he s ui t e of A m d e I s l a nd r e c or ds by 1) de t e r m i ni ng m ont hl y c or a l

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13 S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2 f or t he e nt i r e 20t h c e nt ur y, 2) e xt e ndi ng t he m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l i s ot opi c r e c or d f o r 92 P A A 1 ba c k t o 1921 3) e xt e ndi ng t he m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a r e c or d f o r 92 P A D 1 t o 1937 a nd f or 92 P A C 1 t o 1950, 4) de t e r m i ni ng f o r t ni ght l y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va r i a t i ons f r om 92P A A 1 B t o c om pa r e w i t h m ont hl y a nd s e a s ona l va r i a t i ons a nd 5) r e pl i c a t i ng m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons a l ong pa r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A C 1 A 3. 2 C or a l S a m pl i ng T he c or a l c o r e s us e d i n t hi s s t udy w e r e c ol l e c t e d b y dr i l l i ng a 3 5 m l ong, 8 c m di a m e t e r c or e a l ong t he pr i m a r y ve r t i c a l gr ow t h a x i s of t he c o r a l c ol o ny a nd t he n t he s e c or e s w e r e s l i c e d ve r t i c a l l y t o 5 m m t hi c k s l a bs A nnua l de ns i t y ba nds vi s i bl e on X r a di ogr a phs of t he s e s l a bs w e r e us e d t o de t e r m i ne s a m pl i ng pa t hs a nd s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on ( F i gu r e 4) T he opt i m a l s a m pl i ng pa t h i s pe r pe ndi c ul a r t o t he a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds ; how e ve r t he di r e c t i on of gr ow t h i n t he c or a l l i t e s m a y be di f f e r e nt on e i t he r s i de of t he c or a l s l a b due t o t he s m a l l s i z e of t he c or a l l i t e s i n P or i t e s l ut e a T he s a m pl i ng pa t h w a s de t e r m i ne d by l oc a t i ng t he ne a r ve r t i c a l a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds on t he X r a di ogr a phs a nd e xa m i ni ng t he c or a l s l a b unde r m a gni f i c a t i on t o de t e r m i ne t he gr ow t h d i r e c t i on o f t he c or a l l i t e s T he c o r a l s l a bs w e r e dr i l l e d us i ng a c ont i nuous r out i ng p r ogr a m ( F i gur e 5) on a c om put e r a i de d t r i a xi a l s a m pl e r de s c r i be d i n de t a i l by Q ui nn e t al [ 19 96 ] T hi s s t udy s a m pl e d t he c or e 92 P A A 1 pa r a l l e l t o t he pa t h us e d i n pr e vi ous s t udi e s w i t h a 1 4 m m di a m e t e r d r i l l bi t ; s a m pl e pow de r s w e r e c ol l e c t e d e ve r y 0. 70 m m ( ~ m ont hl y r e s ol ut i on) A ddi t i ona l s a m pl e s w e r e dr i l l e d f or r e pl i c a t i on t e s t s i nc l udi ng: 1) a dj a c e nt pa r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A C 1 A ( F i gur e 6 ) 2) pa r a l l e l pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1

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14 A a nd 92 P A A 1 B ( F i gu r e 7 a nd 8) a nd 3 ) s a m pl e s c ol l e c t e d w i t h f or t ni ght l y r e s ol ut i on ( 30 s a m pl e s / c m ) f r om 92 P A A 1 B ( F i gur e 9 a nd 1 0) 3. 3 G e oc he m i c a l A na l ys i s E l e m e nt a l r a t i o ( S r / C a ) a nd s t a bl e i s ot opi c ( 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C ) m e a s ur e m e nt s w e r e m a de f r om s pl i t s of t he hom oge ni z e d c or a l s a m pl e us i ng i ns t r um e nt a t i on a t t he P a l e oc l i m a t ol ogy, P a l e oc e a nogr a phy, a nd B i oge oc he m i s t r y L a bor a t or y a t t he U ni ve r s i t y of S out h F l or i da S r / C a m e a s ur e m e nt s w e r e m a de us i ng a P e r ki nE l m e r O pt i m a 4300 D ua l V i e w I nduc t i ve l y C oupl e d P l a s m a O pt i c a l E m i s s i on S pe c t r om e t e r ( I C P O E S ) us i ng t he dr i f t c or r e c t i on m e t hod de s c r i be d by Sc hr ag e t al [ 1999 ] C or a l pow de r s a m pl e s ( 90 t o 236 g ) w e r e di l ut e d i n a vol um e of 2% t r a c e m e t a l gr a de H N O 3 t o obt a i n a t a r ge t s a m pl e s ol ut i on ha vi ng ~ 20 ppm c a l c i um T he ov e r a l l a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 1 % ) o f t he l a bor a t or y i nt e r na l gr a vi m e t r i c s t a nda r d ( I G S ) us e d f or t he dr i f t c or r e c t i on w a s 0. 010 m m ol / m ol ( n = 730; 0. 11 % r e l a t i ve s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( R S D ) ) ba s e d on m e a s ur e m e nt s be f or e a nd a f t e r e a c h s a m pl e A n a ddi t i ona l e s t i m a t e of pr e c i s i on w a s de t e r m i ne d us i ng a hom oge ni z e d pow de r of P or i t e s l ut e a ( P L ) w hi c h w a s a na l yz e d e ve r y f i f t h s a m pl e T he ove r a l l pr e c i s i on ( 1 % ) o f t he c o r a l s t a nda r d w a s 0. 017 m m ol / m ol ( n = 776; 0 19% R S D ) T he a bs ol ut e va l ue of t he S r / C a f or t he I G S a nd P L c or a l s t a nda r d ha s be e n c onf i r m e d by t he r m a l i oni z a t i on m a s s s pe c t r om e t r y ( T I M S ) a t t h e U ni ve r s i t y of M i nne s ot a I s ot ope L a bor a t or y. S t a bl e i s ot ope s w e r e m e a s ur e d us i ng a T he r m oF i n ni ga n D e l t a P l us X L dua l i nl e t m a s s s pe c t r om e t e r w i t h K i e l C a r bona t e I I I pr e pa r a t i on de vi c e C or a l pow de r ( 40 t o 80 g) w a s r e a c t e d w i t h phos phor i c a c i d a t 70 C i n t h e K i e l de vi c e t o r e l e a s e C O 2 ga s f or

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15 a na l ys i s i n t he m a s s s pe c t r om e t e r T he ove r a l l a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 1 % ) de t e r m i ne d by a na l ys i s of N B S 19 r un i n c onj unc t i on w i t h c or a l s a m pl e s w a s 0. 06 a nd 0. 04 f or 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C r e s pe c t i ve l y. I s ot opi c r a t i os a r e r e p or t e d i n de l t a ( ) not a t i on r e l a t i ve t o V i e nna P e e D e e B e l e m ni t e ( V P D B ) 3. 4 S c l e r oc hr ono l ogy T w o m e t hods w e r e e m pl oye d t o e s t a bl i s h t he a ge m ode l f or t he i ndi v i dua l c or a l r e c or ds : c ount i ng a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds on t he c or a l X r a di ogr a phs a nd a l i gni ng c o r a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons t o a S S T r e c or d. Q ui n n e t al [ 19 96; 1998] ge ne r a t e d t he or i gi na l a ge m ode l f or t he c or e 92 P A A 1 us i ng m ont hl y a nd s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons T hi s s t udy ge ne r a t e d t he a ge m ode l f or 92 P A A 1 us i ng c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons a s a r e s ul t o f t he hi ghe r c or r e l a t i on of c or a l S r / C a w i t h i n s i t u S S T [ Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002; St e phans e t al 2004] T he c onve r s i on f r om de pt h t o t i m e d om a i n w a s a c hi e ve d by m a t c hi ng c or a l S r / C a m a xi m a ( m i ni m a ) t o S S T m i ni m a ( m a xi m a ) f or e a c h a nnua l c yc l e us i ng A na l yS e r i e s s of t w a r e [ P ai l l ar d, e t al 1996 ] I n or de r t o m a xi m i z e a l i gnm e nt be t w e e n r e c or ds a ddi t i ona l t i e poi nt s w e r e ut i l i z e t o m a t c h m i d s pr i ng a nd m i d s um m e r po i nt s be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a a nd S S T r e c or d T he S S T r e c or d us e d f or a l i gnm e nt i s c om pos d of t he i n s i t u S S T f or A m d e I s l a nd ( I R D ) f r om 196 7 t o 2000 a nd t he 1 gr i dde d S S T da t a s e t e xt r a c t e d f r om t he H a dI S S T 1. 1 da t a ba s e [ R ay n e r e t al 2003 ] c e nt e r e d on 22 5 S 166. 5 E ( r e f e r r e d t o a s H a d I S S T _A I ) f r om 1900 t o 1967 w hi c h w a s a dj us t e d t o m a t c h t he i n s i t u S S T m e a n a nd va r i a nc e ( a dj H a dI S S T = H a dI S S T _A I 1 074 2 989) T he S r / C a a ge m ode l f or e a c h c o r e w a s a ppl i e d t o t he o t he r ge oc he m i c a l r e c or ds f r om t ha t s a m e c or e a nd r e s a m pl e d t o e ve n m ont hl y i nt e r va l s T he r e s a m pl e d de pt h r e c or d w a s

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16 us e d t o c a l c ul a t e a nnua l e xt e ns i on r a t e T he S r / C a ba s e d a ge m ode l f o r 92 P A A 1 w a s c om pa r e d w i t h t he a ge m ode l s f r om pr e vi ous s t udi e s [ Q ui nn, e t al 1996; Q ui nn, e t al 1998; St e phans e t al 2004 ] A dva nt a ge s of t he m ul t i pl e c or e a ppr oa c h i nc l ude : i m pr ove d a l i gnm e nt be t w e e n di s c ont i nuous pa t hs t he a bi l i t y t o a s s e s s m i s s i ng t i m e be t w e e n c or e s e c t i ons a nd t he a bi l i t y t o pe r f or m c r os s va l i da t i on o f t he c h r onol og i e s of t he i ndi v i dua l c or e s T he m ul t i c or e a l i gnm e nt w a s a c hi e ve d by m a t c hi ng t he c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons be t w e e n t he c or e s T he a l i gnm e nt o f c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons i n de pt h s pa c e i s c um be r s om e due t o di f f e r e nt s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons va r i a t i ons i n e xt e ns i on r a t e s a nd pos s i bl e ga ps be t w e e n c or e s e c t i ons F i r s t e a c h c or e s e c t i on w a s a l i gne d t o t h e S S T r e c or d us i ng a be s t gue s s a ge a s s i gnm e nt de t e r m i ne d f r om t he de ns i t y ba nd c hr o nol ogy t he n e a c h c or e s e c t i on w a s vi s ua l l y a l i gne d w i t h c onc ur r e nt c or e s e c t i ons a nd a ge a s s i gnm e nt s w e r e a dj us t e d a c c or di ngl y. A f i na l a ge m ode l f or e a c h c or e w a s ge ne r a t e d a f t e r t he c or e s w e r e a l i gne d a nd ga ps be t w e e n c or e s e c t i ons w e r e a s s e s s e d f or m i s s i ng t i m e T he a ge m ode l s w e r e ve r i f i e d a ga i ns t t he a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds a nd S S T r e c or ds T he m ul t i c or e a l i gn m e nt r e s ul t e d i n c ha nge s t o t he Q ui nn e t al [ 1996; 1998 ] i s ot ope c hr onol ogy a nd t he St e phans e t al [ 2004] c hr onol ogi e s T he e s t i m a t e d e r r o r a t a nnua l s c a l e i s m i ni m a l a nd e r r or a t s uba nnua l s c a l e i s 2 m ont hs 3. 5 D a t a A na l ys i s S t a t i s t i c a l a na l ys i s of a t i m e s e r i e s c ont a i ni ng s e r i a l c or r e l a t i on non c ons t a nt va r i a nc e a nd non no r m a l di s t r i but i on o f e r r or s r e q ui r e s m e t h ods be yond c l a s s i c a l G a us s i a n ba s e d s t a t i s t i c s S t a t i s t i c a l r e s ul t s de r i ve d f r om G a us s i a n a nd non G a us s i a n

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17 m e t hods w e r e us e d t o f a c i l i t a t e c om pa r i s on w i t h o t he r s t udi e s w hi c h l a r ge l y ha ve us e d G a us s i a n m e t hods ; how e ve r i nt e r pr e t a t i ons a r e ba s e d on non G a us s i a n m e t hods due t o t he c ha r a c t e r i s t i c s of t he da t a D i f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n m e a ns a nd va r i a nc e s w e r e t e s t e d us i ng t w o a ppr oa c he s ; t he c l a s s i c a l S t ude nt s t t e s t a nd F t e s t w hi c h a s s um e i nde pe nde nc e a nd nor m a l di s t r i but i on of t he e r r or s a nd M ont e C a r l o s i m ul a t i on us i ng e qui va l e nt de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by t he R uns t e s t [ B e ndat and P i e r s ol 1971 ] C ova r i a nc e w a s de t e r m i ne d us i ng t w o a ppr oa c he s : t he P e a r s on P r oduc t M om e nt c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt s a nd M ont e C a r l o s i m ul a t i on. T he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on be t w e e n c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y ( S r / C a a nd 1 8 O ) a nd S S T w a s de t e r m i ne d by l i n e a r r e gr e s s i on us i ng O r di na r y L e a s t S qua r e s ( O L S ) R e duc e d M a j or A x i s ( R M A ) [ K e r m ac k and H al dane 1950; Y or k 1966; D av i s 2002 ] a nd M a xi m um L i k e l i hood E s t i m a t i on ( M L E ) [ Y or k and E v e ns e n 2004] O L S a nd R M A a r e s pe c i a l c a s e s of t he m or e ge ne r a l m e t hod of M L E [ P r e s s e t al 1992; v on St or c h 1999; Y or k and E v e ns e n 20 04] T he O L S r e gr e s s i on a s s um e s t he r e gr e s s or s ( x y ) a r e i nde pe nde nt ( no s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i on) t he e r r o r s a r e no r m a l l y ( G a us s i a n) di s t r i but e d, t he va r i a nc e i s c ons t a nt ( ho m os c e da s t i c i t y) a nd t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( x ) i s pe r f e c t l y know n. T he O L S nor m a l e qua t i ons c a n be s ol ve d w i t h a l ge br a a nd t he c oe f f i c i e nt s c a n be c a l c ul a t e d w i t h s i m pl e a l gor i t hm s t hus t he a ppe a l of O L S H ow e ve r i n s ub a nnua l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c or ds s om e of t he s e a s s um pt i ons m a y be vi ol a t e d; x va l ue s ( i e t e m pe r a t ur e ) a r e not e r r or f r e e ; s ub a nnua l l y r e s ol ve d t i m e s e r i e s m a y c ont a i n s e r i a l c or r e l a t i on due t o t he a nnua l c yc l e ; t he e r r or s i n x a nd y va l ue s m a y not be c ons t a nt ( i e c ha nge i n S S T m e a s ur e m e nt m e t hod ) T he c ons e que nc e s of t he s e vi ol a t i ons i nc l ude : unde r e s t i m a t i on of e r r or s e ns i t i vi t y t o out l i e r s

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18 a nd a t r a ns f e r f unc t i on t ha t m a y not a de qua t e l y m o de l t he da t a [ c f P r e s s e t al 1992; v on St or c h 1995; D r ape r and Sm i t h 1998 ] T e s t s f or t he O L S a s s um pt i ons a r e di s c us s e d i n B e ndat and P i e r s ol [ 1971 ] a nd D r ape r and Sm i t h [ 1998] T he i s s ue s w i t h O L S r e gr e s s i on m e t hods ha ve be e n e xa m i ne d i n t he c or a l ba s e d pa l e oc l i m a t e s t udi e s O ne a ppr oa c h us e d i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons i s O L S r e gr e s s i on w i t h onl y m a xi m u m a nd m i ni m um va l u e s [ L i ns l e y e t al 1994; C ar di nal e t al 2001; A l l i s on and F i nc h 2004; B agnat o e t al 2004; C ohe n, e t al 2004; C or r ge e t al 2004; M ont aggi oni e t a l 2006] T he m a xi m u m / m i ni m um a ppr oa c h e l i m i na t e s s e r i a l c or r e l a t i on; how e ve r t he c os t i s a l os s i n de g r e e s of f r e e dom s a nd l a r ge r e r r or ba r s T he ot he r r e gr e s s i on m e t hod us e d i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons i s R M A Y or k [ 1966] a nd Y or k e t al [ 2 004] de m ons t r a t e t ha t R M A i s a s pe c i a l c a s e of M L E a nd ge ne r a l i z e d l e a s t s qua r e s ; t he e r r or i n t he x a nd y va r i a bl e s i s i nc l ude d i n R M A r e gr e s s i on a nd t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he e r r or s i s a s s um e d t o be z e r o. S e ve r a l c or a l ba s e d pa l e oc l i m a t e s t udi e s ha ve c om pa r e d t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons f r om O L S a nd R M A w i t h va r yi ng r e s ul t s [ She n and D unbar 1995 ; Q ui nn e t al 1998; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002; Sm i t h, e t al 2006 ] Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] di s c us s e d t he a s s um pt i on of x va r i a bl e ( S S T ) ha vi ng no e r r or a nd pr e s e nt a m e t hod t o c or r e c t f or t he S S T bi a s f or O L S c a l i br a t i ons by e s t i m a t i ng t he e r r or i n t he obs e r ve d S S T C or r ge [ 2006] s um m a r i z e d t he publ i s he d c or a l S r / C a S S T e qua t i ons a nd di s c us s e d t he ongoi ng de ba t e of r e gr e s s i on m e t hods T he pur pos e of t hi s s t udy i s no t t o c ont r i but e t o t h e de ba t e by a ddi ng a not he r r e gr e s s i on m e t hod; how e ve r t he r e g r e s s i on m e t hod de ba t e i s w ha t pr o m pt e d t he i nve s t i ga t i on i n or de r t o be t t e r unde r s t a nd t he di f f e r e nt r e gr e s s i on m e t hods ut i l i z e d i n

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19 c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons T he M L E i s a ge ne r a l i z e d l i ne a r r e gr e s s i on s ol ut i on t ha t doe s not a s s um e t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e i s e r r or f r e e a l l ow s t he va r i a nc e i n t he r e gr e s s or s t o va r y, a nd a c c ount s f or c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he e r r or s ( r i ) T he Y or k e t al [ 2004] M L E e qua t i ons a nd a l go r i t hm s pr oduc e t he s a m e r e s ul t s f or O L S a nd R M A w he n t he i nput pa r a m e t e r s ( % x % y a nd r i ) a r e s e t a c c or di ng t o t he r e s pe c t i ve a s s um pt i ons ( O L S : r i = 0 % x = 1; R M A : r i = 0 % x 0) H ow e ve r t he s t r e ngt h of t he M L E m e t hod i s t he a bi l i t y t o i nc l ude e r r o r i n bot h t he i nde pe nde nt a nd de pe nda nt va r i a bl e s a l l ow t he va r i a nc e of e a c h r e g r e s s or ( % x % y ) t o va r y f r om poi nt t o poi nt a nd a c c ount f o r c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he e r r or s ( r i ) T he M L E a l gor i t hm s by Y or k e t al [ 2004] a s s um e nor m a l l y di s t r i but e d e r r o r s i n t he i r e qua t i ons ; how e ve r t he i m pa c t of us i ng no r m a l di s t r i bu t i on f or t he e r r or s i s m i nor c om pa r e d w i t h ot he r O L S v i ol a t i ons

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20 4. R e s ul t s T he f i d e l i t y of t he c or a l r e c or ds f r om N e w C a l e doni a w a s c onf i r m e d by e xa m i ni ng t he c or a l s a m pl e s f o r s e c onda r y m i ne r a l s e s t i m a t i ng a nnua l e xt e ns i on r a t e s a nd c om pa r i ng c hr onol ogi e s be t w e e n m ul t i pl e c or a l r e c or ds E xa m i na t i on of s c a nni ng e l e c t r on m i c r os c ope i m a ge s ( S E M ) a nd pe t r ogr a ph i c t hi n s e c t i ons of 92 P A A 1 f ound no e vi de nc e of s e c onda r y m i ne r a l s ( F i gur e 4c ) E xt e n s i on r a t e s a ve r a ge d ~ 1 c m pe r ye a r i n a l l c or e s a nd e f f o r t s w e r e m a de t o a voi d s a m pl i ng i n r e gi ons w he r e t he a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds w e r e < 0. 6 c m i n l e ngt h A nnua l de ns i t y ba n d c hr onol ogi e s f or e a c h c or e w e r e c onf i r m e d by c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons w hi c h e xhi bi t s t r ong a nnua l c yc l e s T he m ul t i c o r e a l i gnm e nt pr oc e dur e ut i l i z e d i n t hi s s t udy r e s ul t e d i n r e f i ne m e nt s t o t he p r e vi ous c hr onol ogi e s of c or a l c or e s f r o m N e w C a l e doni a : c hr onol ogy of t he c or e 92 P A A 1 [ Q ui nn, e t al 1998 ] w a s c ha nge d by one ye a r a nd t he c hr onol ogy o f t he c o r e 92 P A D 1 [ St e phans e t al 2004] w a s c ha nge d by t w o ye a r s 4. 1 M ul t i pl e S a m pl i ng R e s ol ut i ons T he e f f e c t o f di f f e r e nt s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons i n c or a l S r / C a ( f or t n i ght l y a nd m ont hl y) a nd 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C ( f o r t ni ght l y m ont hl y a nd s e a s ona l l y) w a s i nve s t i ga t e d a nd t he r e s ul t s w e r e c om pa r e d t o s i m i l a r s c a l e s ubs a m pl i ng of t he da i l y S S T t i m e s e r i e s f r om t hi s s i t e T he di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons s a m pl e d w i t h m ont hl y a nd f or t ni ght l y r e s ol ut i on i s w i t h i n a na l yt i c a l p r e c i s i on of t he S r / C a m e a s ur e m e nt ( 0. 010 m m ol / m ol 1 % ; F i gur e 10 ) T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( 1 % ) i n t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds

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21 c ha nge s f r om 0. 101 m m ol / m ol ( f o r t ni ght l y s a m pl i ng) t o 0. 094 m m o l / m ol ( m ont hl y s a m pl i ng) a 6 9% r e duc t i on w i t h r e s pe c t t o f or t n i g ht l y r e s ol ut i on ( T a bl e 3 ) T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( 1 % ) i n t he c or a l 1 8 O r e c or ds c ha nge s f r om 0. 27 ( f o r t ni ght l y s a m pl i ng) t o 0. 26 ( m ont hl y s a m pl i ng) t o 0. 22 ( s e a s ona l s a m pl i ng) a 4 0% r e duc t i on be t w e e n f or t n i gh t l y a nd m ont hl y s a m pl i ng ( T a bl e 3) T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( 1 % ) i n t he c or a l 1 3 C r e c or ds c ha nge s f r om 0. 27 ( f o r t ni ght l y s a m pl i ng) t o 0. 26 ( m ont hl y s a m pl i ng) t o 0. 19 ( s e a s ona l s a m pl i ng) a 5. 0 % r e duc t i on be t w e e n f or t ni ght l y a nd m ont hl y s a m pl i ng ( T a b l e 3) O ve r a l l m e a n c or a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va l ue s do not c ha nge s i gni f i c a nt l y a s a f unc t i on o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on. T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( 1 % ) i n t he da i l y i n s i t u S S T c ha nge s f r o m 2. 0 C ( da i l y s a m pl i ng) t o 1. 9 C ( f or t ni ght l y s a m pl i ng) t o 1. 8 C ( m ont hl y s a m pl i ng) t o 1 7 C ( s e a s ona l s a m pl i ng) a 1. 7% r e duc t i on be t w e e n f o r t ni ght l y a nd m ont hl y s a m pl i ng ( T a bl e 4 a nd F i gur e 3) T he da i l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s a r e a c c ur a t e w i t hi n 0. 2 C or 0. 04 C f or m ont hl y a ve r a ge S S T T he r e i s no c ha nge i n t he m e a n S S T va l ue a s a f unc t i on of s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on. 4. 2 R e pl i c a t i on of C or a l S r / C a V a r i a t i ons R e pl i c a t i on t e s t s w e r e c onduc t e d on i nc r e a s i ng s pa t i a l a nd t e m por a l s c a l e s t o a s s e s s t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a A t t he i ndi vi dua l s a m pl e s c a l e dupl i c a t e S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons o f c or a l pow de r c onf i r m e d c or a l s a m pl e s a r e hom oge ne ous T he a ve r a ge o f t he a bs ol ut e di f f e r e nc e s ( a vg a b s ) be t w e e n c oe va l m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons ( 0 022 0 018 m m ol / m ol 1 % ; T a bl e 5; F i gur e 6) i s s i m i l a r t o a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 0. 016 m m ol / m ol 1 % ) T he ne xt s pa t i a l s c a l e t e s t e d r e pr oduc i bi l i t y b e t w e e n pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs s pa c e d

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22 ~ 0. 5 c m a pa r t f o r a 20 ye a r i n t e r va l w he r e t he pa r a l l e l pa t h on 92 P A C 1 A w a s s a m pl e d ne x t t o t he pa t h r e por t e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] T he r e s ul t s of t hi s t e s t c onf i r m e d t he hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e na t ur e o f t he s e pa r a l l e l pa t hs ; t he m e a ns a nd s t a n da r d de vi a t i ons be t w e e n t he pa r a l l e l pa t hs a r e no t s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 5) a nd c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he pa t hs i s hi gh ( r = 0. 93 p < 0 05, n = 2 49; T a bl e 5 ) T he a vg a b s be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t h c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons ( 0 031 0 026 m m ol / m ol 1 % ; T a bl e 5; F i gur e 6) i s w i t hi n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 0. 016 m m ol / m ol 1 % ) A n a ddi t i ona l pa r a l l e l pa t h r e pl i c a t i on t e s t w a s c onduc t e d t o i nve s t i ga t e pos s i bl e di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n s a m pl i ng on oppos i ng s i de s of t he ~ 0. 5 c m t hi c k c or a l s l a b ( F i gur e 7) C or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f r om pa r a l l e l pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 A a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 6; F i gur e 7a ) a r e r e pr oduc i bl e w i t hi n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on, a nd t he a vg a b s i s c om pa r a bl e t o t he pa r a l l e l pa t h t e s t on 92 P A C 1 A ( T a bl e 5 a nd 6) H ow e ve r c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f or p a r a l l e l pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 B e xhi bi t a s i gni f i c a nt di ve r ge nc e i n c or a l S r / C a ( T a bl e 6 ; F i gu r e 7c ) T he younge s t t w o c yc l e s f r om 1966 t o 1968 a gr e e w i t hi n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on; how e ve r be f or e 196 6, t he t w o pa t hs di ve r ge a nd t he di f f e r e n c e ( a vg a b s = 0. 093 m m ol / m ol ) be t w e e n t he pa t hs i nc r e a s e s be yond a na l yt i c a l e r r or C l os e r e xa m i na t i on of t he c or a l s l a b unde r m a gni f i c a t i on r e ve a l e d t he c o r a l l i t e s on t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de of t he s l a b w e r e no t or i e nt e d pa r a l l e l t o t he s a m pl i ng pa t h ( F i gur e 8 ) a s a m pl i ng or i e nt a t i on t ha t ha s pr e vi ous l y be e n i de nt i f i e d a s p r obl e m a t i c [ e g. A l i be r t and M c C ul l oc h 1997 ] I n t hi s s pe c i f i c c a s e s a m pl e s e xt r a c t e d f r om t he non opt i m a l s a m pl i ng pa t hw a y yi e l de d l ow e r S r / C a va l ue s r e l a t i ve t o t he va l ue s pr oduc e d f r om t he ot he r s a m pl e s w hi c h w he n c onve r t e d t o S S T w oul d pr oduc e e l e va t e d t e m pe r a t ur e va l ue s A ddi t i ona l c om pa r i s on of

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23 1 8 O 1 3 C a nd M g/ C a be t w e e n t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de a nd oppos i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B di d not r e ve a l a n o f f s e t be t w e e n t he oppo s i ng s i de s ( s e e A ppe ndi x A ) T he 92 P A A 2, 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1 c or a l S r / C a r e c or d s a gr e e w i t h t he va r i a t i ons on t he oppos i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B ( F i gur e 11 ) a nd da t a f r om o r i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B w e r e not us e d f ur t he r i n t hi s s t udy. T he ne xt s pa t i a l s t e p a s s e s s e d t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y o f m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons be t w e e n s ync hr onous c or e s f r om s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ; F i gu r e 4 ) T w o c or e s 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2 w e r e c om pa r e d f o r t he 20t h c e nt ur y a nd t he t hi r d c or e 99 P A A [ St e phans e t al 2004] w a s c om pa r e d w i t h 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2 f or t he pe r i od 1965 t o 1992 ( T a bl e 7 a nd 8; F i gu r e 11) T he pa t t e r n of m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f or t he pe r i od 1965 t o 1992 a r e w e l l m a t c he d be t w e e n t he t hr e e c or e s ( r > 0. 92 p < 0. 05 n = 328; T a bl e 9 ; F i gu r e 11) a nd t he m e a ns f or e a c h c or e a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 7 ) F o r t he 20t h c e nt ur y t he pa t t e r n of m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons be t w e e n 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2 a r e w e l l m a t c he d ( r = 0 93, p < 0. 05 n = 1098; T a bl e 10; F i gur e 11) a nd t he m e a ns a r e no t s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 8 ) T he a vg a b s be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f or P A A i s 0. 036 0. 027 m m ol / m ol ( 1 % ) s i m i l a r t o t he pa r a l l e l pa t h t e s t s ( T a bl e 11 ) T he l a r ge s t di s a gr e e m e nt ( ~ 0. 055 m m ol / m ol on a ve r a ge ) i n c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons s pa ns t he i nt e r va l 1951 t o 1959, w he r e t he 92 P A A 1 c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons a r e l ow e r t ha n 92 P A A 2, 92 P A D 1, a nd 92 P A C 1 ( F i gur e 11 a nd 12) T he l a s t s pa t i a l t e s t a s s e s s e d t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons be t w e e n c or a l c ol oni e s of f s hor e f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T h i s s t udy bui l ds upon t he pr e vi ous s t udy o f St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] b y e xt e ndi ng t he c or a l r e c or ds 92

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24 P A C 1 t o 1950 a nd 92 P A D 1 t o 1937 a nd c om pa r i ng t he m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om 92 P A C 1, 92 P A D 1, a nd t he t hr e e P A A c or a l r e c or ds t o a s s e s s i nt e r c ol ony r e pr oduc i bi l i t y ( F i gur e 11) T he m e a ns a nd s t a nda r ds de vi a t i ons of f i ve c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y ( T a bl e 8) t he c o r a l S r / C a r e c or ds a r e hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e ( r > 0 90, p < 0. 05; T a bl e 10 ) a nd t he ove r a l l a vg a b s i s 0. 036 0 028 m m ol / m ol ( 1 % ) be t w e e n a l l r e c or ds ( T a bl e 11) T he a dj us t m e nt s m a de t o t he c hr onol ogy o f 92 P A D 1 i nc r e a s e d t he c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt s f or 92 P A D 1 w i t h t he ot he r c or e s a nd S S T f r om t h os e r e por t e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] f or t he i nt e r va l 1967 t o 1992 ( T a bl e 9) T he r e a r e t w o ot he r di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t hi s s t udy a nd St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] ; 1 ) t he 92 P A A 2 c or a l S r / C a w a s not i nc l ude d i n t he pr e vi ous s t udy a nd 2) t he c or a l S r / C a f or 92 P A A 1 w a s ge ne r a t e d by t hi s s t udy us i ng t he s a m e l a bor a t or y a s t he ot he r c or e s ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 2, 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) T he us e of a c om m on l a bor a t or y a nd s t a nda r d s ol ut i ons m i ni m i z e s a ny di s c r e pa nc i e s due t o a na l yt i c a l pr oc e dur e s T he m ont h l y c or a l S r / C a a n om a l i e s f or e a c h c or a l r e c or d w a s c a l c ul a t e d by s ubt r a c t i ng t he r e s pe c t i ve m ont hl y m e a n w i t h r e s pe c t t o t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 ( F i gu r e 12) T he a ve r a ge of t he c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt s be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a a nom a l i e s i s 0. 51 f or t he i nt e r va l 1967 t o 19 92 ( T a bl e 9) a nd 0. 54 f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y ( T a bl e 10) T he s t a c k m a s t e r c or a l S r / C a r e c or d f o r A m d e I s l a nd i s c om pos e d of t he a ve r a ge of t hr e e c or a l r e c or ds f r o m t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( 99 P A A 92 P A A a nd 92 P A A 2) t o c r e a t e t he s t a c k P A A c ol o ny r e c or d, w hi c h w a s t he n a ve r a ge d w i t h t he i nt e r c ol ony r e c or ds ( 92 P A C 1 a n d 92 P A D 1) t o c r e a t e t he s t a c k r e c or d or s t a c k m a s t e r r e c or d f o r A m d e T he s t a c k m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons a nd a nom a l i e s a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h t he i nd i vi dua l m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds ( T a bl e 10 )

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25 4. 3 S t a bl e I s ot ope s of O xyge n a nd C a r bon T he s t a c k a ve r a ge m ont hl y c or a l 1 8 O ( F i gu r e 13) a nd 1 3 C t i m e s e r i e s f o r t he 20t h c e nt ur y w a s c ons t r uc t e d ba s e d on t he a ge m o de l pr oduc e d us i ng c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds ( A ppe ndi x B a nd C ) T he s t a c k a ve r a ge m on t hl y c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f o r 92 P A A 1 i s c om po s e d of r e c or ds f r om t h r e e s t udi e s : 1900 t o 1 909 C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] ; 1921 t o 1951 t hi s s t udy, a nd 1951 t o 1992 Q ui nn e t al [ 19 96; 1998] ( F i gu r e 13, A ppe ndi x B ) T he m ont hl y a nd s e a s on a l i s ot opi c r e c or ds f r om Q ui nn e t al [ 1996; 1998 ] a nd C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] w e r e a dj us t e d t o t he m ul t i c or e c h r on ol ogy f r om t hi s s t udy. T he m ont h l y r e s ol ve d i s ot opi c r e c or ds f or 92 P A C 1 92 P A D 1, a nd 99 P A A a r e f r om St e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd w e r e a dj us t e d i n t he m ul t i c or e c hr onol ogy f r om i n t hi s s t udy ( s e e A ppe ndi x B ) T he c or a l 1 8 O s i gna l i s hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e f o r t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 a s r e por t e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] a nd c or r e l a t i on va l ue s f o r t hi s s t udy ( r = 0 8 0 t o 0. 90 p < 0. 05 n = 304) a r e e qua l t o or s l i ght l y hi ghe r t ha n t hos e r e por t e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004] a f t e r a dj us t m e nt s t o t he c hr onol ogi e s T he c or r e l a t i on b e t w e e n c or e s f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y di d not va r y g r e a t l y f r om t he c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt s f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 T he m e a ns be t w e e n t he m ont hl y c or a l 1 8 O de t e r m i ne d by t hi s s t udy a nd t he s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O de t e r m i ne d by Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f o r t he pe r i od 1 921 t o 1951 ( m ont hl y 4. 22 0. 32 1 % ; s e a s ona l 4. 32 0. 26 1 % ) T he m ont hl y c or a l 1 3 C va r i a t i ons be t w e e n i nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony c or e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a do not e xhi bi t t he s a m e s i gna l r e pr oduc i bi l i t y a s obs e r ve d w i t h c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O va r i a t i ons ( s e e A ppe ndi x C ) I n t he m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on c om pa r i s on ( F i gur e 10 ) t he c or a l 1 3 C m e a ns di d no t va r y s i gni f i c a nt l y; how e ve r t he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on w a s r e duc e d 27% be t w e e n f o r t ni ght l y a nd

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26 s e a s ona l r e s ol ut i ons E xa m i na t i on o f F i gu r e 10 c onf i r m s t he c o r a l 1 3 C i s va r i a bl e i n na t ur e a nd l a c ks a c l e a r a nnua l c yc l e C om pa r i s on of i n t r a c ol ony c or a l 1 3 C va r i a t i ons w a s s i m i l a r t o t he m ul t i pl e r e s ol ut i on t e s t : a l a c k o f c l e a r a nnua l c yc l e s w i t h s om e ye a r s ha vi ng one c yc l e a nd ot he r ye a r s ha vi ng t w o c yc l e s ( F i gur e 10 A ppe ndi x C ) T he c or a l 1 3 C m e a ns di d not di f f e r s i gni f i c a nt l y be t w e e n c o r e s f r om t he s a m e c ol ony, 99 P A A St e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd 92 P A A 1 Q ui nn e t al [ 1996; 1998] f o r t he pe r i od 1965 t o 1992; how e ve r t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he i n t r a c ol ony c or a l 1 3 C i s l ow e r t ha n t he c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O i nt r a c ol ony c or r e l a t i on ( r = 0 54, p < 0. 05 n = 329 ) T he m e a ns be t w e e n i nt e r c ol ony c or e s a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt a s r e p or t e d by St e phans [ 2003] a nd t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he P A A c or e s a nd 92 P A D 1 a r e i ns i gni f i c a nt ( p = 0 05) T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n 92 P A C 1 a nd t he ot he r c ol oni e s a r e s i gni f i c a nt ( r = 0 34 t o 0 44, p < 0. 05) how e ve r t he c or r e l a t i ons a r e l ow e r t ha n t he i nt r a c ol ony ( P A A ) c or r e l a t i on ( A ppe ndi x C ) 4. 4 C or a l G e oc he m i s t r y a nd S S T V a r i a t i ons i n S S T ha ve l ong be e n know n t o d r i ve a t l e a s t i n pa r t va r i a t i ons i n t he 1 8 O [ E ps t e i n, e t al 1951; E ps t e i n, e t al 1953; W e be r and W oodhe ad 1972 ] a nd S r / C a [ W e be r 1973; Sm i t h, e t al 1979; B e c k e t al 199 2] i n c o r a l s ke l e t ons T he m on t hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f or t hi s s t udy a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h m ont hl y i n s i t u S S T ( r > 0 91, p < 0 05) a nd m ont hl y H a dI S S T _A I ( r > 0. 91 p < 0. 05) f or t he pe r i od c om m on t o a l l r e c or ds ( 1967 t o 1992; n = 304; T a bl e 9) T he c or r e l a t i ons do not va r y gr e a t l y f or t he e xt e nde d 20t h c e nt ur y r e c or ds ( T a bl e 10) T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he s t a c k a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a a nd t he H a dI S S T _A I i nc r e a s e d ( 1 t o 4 % f or m on t hl y, 4 t o 12%

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27 f or a nom a l i e s ) f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y by a ve r a gi ng t h e m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons i nc r e a s i ng t he s i gna l t o noi s e r a t i o ( T a bl e 10) T h e m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a a nom a l i e s a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h i n s i t u S S T a nom a l i e s a nd H a dI S S T _A I a nom a l i e s ( r = 0. 56, 0. 55 r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0. 05 n = 304) f o r t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 ( T a bl e 9) a nd t he H a dI S S T _A I a nom a l i e s de c r e a s e d by 2 % f or t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d e xt e nde d t o t he ye a r 1900 ( r = 0 53, p < 0 05, n = 1198; T a bl e 10) T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a a nd S S T a nom a l i e s i s s l i ght l y l e s s t ha n t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n i n s i t u S S T a nd H a dI S S T _A I ( r = 0. 60 p < 0 05, n = 394; T a b l e 10) T he a nnua l a ve r a ge o f t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a i s s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h a nnua l a ve r a ge i n s i t u S S T a nd H a dI S S T _A I ( r = 0 51, 0. 69 r e s pe c t i ve l y, n = 33, 100, r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0. 05; T a bl e 12; F i gur e 14 ) f or t he 20t h c e nt u r y; how e ve r t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n s om e of t he i nd i vi dua l a nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a nd t he i n s i t u S S T a r e not s i gni f i c a nt pos s i bl y a t t r i but e d t o t he s m a l l num be r o f obs e r va t i ons ( n = 25 ) T he s t a c k a ve r a ge of t he m ont hl y c o r a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons i s s i gni f i c a nt l y c or r e l a t e d w i t h bo t h m on t hl y i n s i t u S S T a nd H a dI S S T _A I ( r = 0. 94, 0 94, r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0 05, n = 304 ) f or t h e pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 a nd t he c or r e l a t i on de c r e a s e d f or t he l onge r 20t h c e nt u r y i nt e r va l ( r = 0. 89 0. 84 n = 394, 1052, r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0 05)

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28 5. D i s c us s i on T hi s s t udy e xpa nds upon pr e vi ous s t udi e s of c or a l ge oc he m i c a l va r i a t i ons a t A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a ; t hi s l oc a t i on i s i d e a l f or c o r a l pa l e oc l i m a t i c r e c ons t r uc t i ons due t o i t s r e m ot e l oc a t i on a nd l ong i n s i t u r e c or ds of S S T a nd S S S A n e va l ua t i on of t h e e f f e c t o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on on t he c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons a t t hi s s i t e w a s f i r s t i nve s t i ga t e d by Q ui nn e t al [ 1996] a nd St e ph ans e t al [ 2004] i nve s t i ga t e d t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y o f c or a l 1 8 O a nd S r / C a s i gna l s r e c or de d i n m u l t i pl e c or a l he a ds f r om t hi s s i t e T hi s s t udy e xpa nds a nd i m pr ove s upon pr e vi ous s t udi e s a t t hi s l oc a t i on by 1 ) e xpa ndi ng t he s a m pl e r e s ol ut i on t e s t t o c or a l S r / C a a nd t o h i ghe r r e s ol ut i on s a m pl i ng ( s e c t i on 5. 1) 2) e xt e ndi ng t he t e s t of r e pr oduc i bi l i t y i n c or a l S r / C a t o s pa n t he e nt i r e 20t h c e nt ur y ( s e c t i on 5. 2 ) 3) a s s e s s i ng t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d us i ng de nd r oc hr onol ogy m e t hods ( s e c t i on 5. 3) 4 ) c om pa r i ng c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons w i t h l oc a l S S T ( s e c t i on 5 4) 5) ve r i f i c a t i on of t he c or a l S r / C a S S T c a l i br a t i on w i t h gr i dde d S S T da t a pr oduc t s f or l onge r pe r i ods of t i m e ( s e c t i on 5. 5 ) a nd 6) c om pa r i ng c or a l S r / C a t o c o r a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons be t w e e n t hi s a nd pr e vi ous s t udi e s ( s e c t i on 5. 6) 5. 1 S a m pl i ng R e s ol ut i on E xa m i na t i on of t he c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O va r i a t i ons s a m pl e d a t di f f e r e nt r e s ol ut i ons r e ve a l s t ha t t he r e i s m i ni m a l l os s i n t he s ki l l of c a pt ur i ng t he m e a n of t he a nnua l c yc l e or t he m e a n c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O f o r t he i nt e r va l t e s t e d. T he a m pl i t ude of t he a nnua l c yc l e s i nc r e a s e d w i t h f i ne r s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons ; how e ve r t he i nc r e a s e w a s

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29 not l i ne a r but l e ve l e d of f w i t h i nc r e a s i ng r e s ol ut i o n ( F i gu r e 10d) ; a s i m i l a r t a pe r i ng o f f w a s obs e r ve d w i t h t he f i l t e r i ng o f t he da i l y i n s i t u S S T r e c or d ( F i gur e 3b) T he m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on c om pa r i s on a s s um e s t ha t t he d i f f e r e nc e be t w e e n t he pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs ut i l i z e d f or e a c h r e s ol ut i on i s e qua l t o or l e s s t ha n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on. T hi s a s s um pt i on w a s t e s t e d f or a 20 ye a r i n t e r va l o n 92 P A C 1 ( T a bl e 5; F i gur e 6) w hi c h de m ons t r a t e d t ha t t he c o r a l S r / C a va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n a dj a c e nt pa t hs w a s w i t hi n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on R e c e nt i nve s t i ga t i ons of m i c r on s c a l e va r i a t i ons i n c or a l s ke l e t a l S r / C a c onc l ude d t ha t m i c r on s c a l e f r e que nc y va r i a t i ons i n c o r a l S r / C a a r e not r e l a t e d t o S S T va r i a t i ons [ M e i bom e t al 2003; A l l i s on and F i nc h 2004; C ohe n and Sohn 2004; S i nc l ai r 2005 ] M e i bom e t al [ 2003] obs e r ve d ~ m ont hl y os c i l l a t i o ns i n c or a l S r / C a s a m pl e d a t 30 m ( ~ da i l y) w hi c h t he y a t t r i but e d t o m e t a bol i c va r i a bi l i t y r e l a t e d t o t he l una r c yc l e C ohe n and Sohn [ 2004 ] a t t r i but e d c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons s a m pl e d i n di s c r e t e 20 m s pot s ( ~ da i l y) t o t i da l f or c i ng A l l i s on and F i nc h [ 2004 ] e xa m i ne d di f f e r e nc e s i n c or a l S r / C a be t w e e n c e nt e r s of c a l c i f i c a t i on ( C O C s ) w hi c h a r e de pos i t e d a t ni ght a nd f a s c i c ul i w hi c h a r e de pos i t e d dur i ng t he da y, i n f a s t a nd s l ow gr ow i ng P or i t e s l obat a c or a l s f r om H a w a i i A l l i s on and F i nc h [ 2004] obs e r ve d s i gni f i c a nt l y hi ghe r c or a l S r / C a va l ue s i n t he C O C s no s i gni f i c a nt di f f e r e nc e i n c or a l S r / C a be t w e e n t he f a s t a nd s l ow g r ow i ng c or a l s a nd bot h t he f a s c i c ul i a nd C O C s e xhi bi t l a r ge S r / C a he t e r oge ne i t y ( ~ 1 m m ol / m ol ) not r e l a t e d t o t e m pe r a t u r e w hi c h t he y a t t r i but e t o va r i a t i ons i n c a l c i f i c a t i on r a t e s Si nc l ai r [ 2005 ] m i c r os a m pl e d P or i t e s c or a l s f r o m t he G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f A us t r a l i a a nd r e por t e d l a r ge m a gni t ude s ubm ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a bi l i t y, w hi c h w oul d e qua t e t o ~ 20 C U nl i ke M e i bom e t al [ 2003] a nd C ohe n and Sohn [ 2004] Si nc l ai r [ 2005 ] di d not obs e r ve

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30 c onc e nt r a t i ons of va r i a nc e a t c om m on pe r i odi c i t i e s a nd not e d di f f e r e nt va r i a t i ons be t w e e n c or a l s P r e vi ous c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c o ns t r uc t i ons c ont r a s t w i t h m i c r on s c a l e i nve s t i ga t i ons w hi c h us e m s c a l e s a m pl i ng t o r e c ove r ~ 1 m 2 a r e a f r om a s i ngl e c or a l l i t e w he r e a s t ypi c a l c o r a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c o ns t r uc t i ons s a m pl e a n ~ 1 m m 2 a r e a w hi c h m a y c ont a i ns m ul t i pl e c or a l l i t e s de pe ndi ng on t he s pe c i e s T hi s s t udy s a m pl e d a t 0. 70 m m ( ~ m ont hl y ) i nt e r va l s us i ng a 1 4 m m dr i l l bi t a nd e a c h s a m pl e a r e a c ont a i ns ~ 1. 47 m m 2 of c or a l s ke l e t a l m a t e r i a l f r om m u l t i pl e P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l l i t e s ( ~ 3 t o 4 c or a l l i t e s ; s e e F i gur e 8 f or de t a i l o f c or a l w i t h s a m pl i ng pa t h) A c ons i de r a t i on i n s pe c t r a l a na l ys i s i s a ppr opr i a t e s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l s t o a voi d t he a l i a s i ng f r e que nc i e s hi ghe r t ha n t w i c e t he s a m pl i n g i nt e r va l t he N yqui s t f r e que nc y, w he n s a m pl i ng di s c r e t e l y [ B e ndat and P i e r s ol 1971; B l oom f i e l d 1976] A c ont i nuous s a m pl i ng m e t hod us e d by Q ui nn at e l [ 1996] a dd r e s s e s t he i s s ue of a l i a s i ng hi gh f r e que nc i e s i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons a nd t hi s m e t hod i s ut i l i z e d i n t hi s s t udy a nd m a ny ot he r s [ e g. A l i be r t and M c C ul l oc h 199 7; e g. Q ui nn e t al 1998; C or r ge e t al 2000; L i ns l e y e t al 2000; H e ndy e t a l 2002 ; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002; K i l bour ne e t al 2004; St e phans e t al 2004 ; L i ns l e y e t al 2006; Sm i t h, e t al 2006] T he c ont i nuous s a m pl i ng m e t hod ( F i gu r e 5) i nvol v e s dr i l l i ng a c ha nne l i n t he c or a l a l ong t he m a xi m um g r ow t h a xi s ( s e e F i gu r e 8 f or de t a i l of c or a l w i t h s a m pl i ng pa t h ) a nd r e m ovi ng a hom oge ni z e d c o r a l pow de r s a m pl e f or s om e i nt e r va l l e ngt h, w hi c h i n m a t he m a t i c a l t e r m s e qua t e s t o a m ovi ng a ve r a ge o r s m oot hi ng f unc t i on. T he c ont i nuous s a m pl i ng m e t hod i s qui t e d i f f e r e nt f r o m s a m pl i ng t he c or a l s ke l e t a l m a t e r i a l i n di s c r e t e poi nt s s uc h t ha t m i ni m a l i nf or m a t i on a l ong t he s a m pl i ng pa t h i s l os t a s t he s i gna l i s a ve r a ge d ove r t he s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l I f f r e que nc i e s hi ghe r t ha n t he s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l a r e

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31 pr e s e nt i n t he c or a l s ke l e t a l m a t e r i a l t he c ont i nuou s s a m pl i ng m e t hod a ve r a ge s t he s e f l uc t ua t i ons pr oduc i ng a s m oot he d r e c or d T he c o s t of s m oot hi ng o r f i l t e r i ng da t a i s a l os s of va r i a nc e T hi s i s i l l us t r a t e d i n t he f i l t e r e d i n s i t u da i l y S S T r e c or d ( F i gu r e 3) a nd m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on e x pe r i m e nt ( F i gur e 1 0) A s t he s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l doubl e d f r om f or t ni ght l y t o s e a s ona l ( 30 s a m pl e s / c m t o 15 s a m pl e s / c m ) t he va r i a nc e de c r e a s e d i n e a c h ge oc he m i c a l r e c or d a s e xpe c t e d ( F i gur e 3 a nd 10; T a bl e 3 a nd 4) T he pe r c e nt r e duc t i on i n s t a nda r d de vi a t i on f r om f or t ni ght l y t o m ont hl y f o r t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or d ( 1. 7% S S T ) w a s l e s s t ha n t he c or a l r e c or ds ( 6. 9 % S r / C a 3 9% 1 8 O a nd 5. 0 % 1 3 C ) T he i n s i t u S S T i s di s c r e t e l y s a m pl e d onc e pe r da y i n m o r ni ng obs e r va t i on a nd i s not a f ul l y c ont i nuous da i l y r e c or d T he r e f o r e t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or d l a c ks t he hi gh f r e que nc y pow e r ( < 1 da y) t ha t c ont r i but e s t o t he ove r a l l va r i a nc e i n a c ont i nuous s a m pl e T he r e s ul t s of t he s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on t e s t r e ve a l a m i n i m a l l os s i n va r i a nc e a nd i n m e a n va l ue i n c or a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C f or t w i c e t he s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l A l l i s on and F i nc h [ 2004] pe r f or m e d a s i m i l a r t e s t w i t h t he i r m i c r on s c a l e i nve s t i ga t i on r e s ul t s a nd not e d a r e duc t i on i n va r i a nc e a s s m oot hi ng i nt e r va l s i nc r e a s e d a nd t ha t c or r e l a t i on w i t h t e m pe r a t ur e i nc r e a s e d a s s m oot hi ng r e a c he d m ont hl y a nd bi m ont hl y i nt e r va l s T he r e s ul t s f r om A l l i s on and F i nc h [ 2004] a nd f r om t h i s s t udy s uppor t t he c onc l us i on r e a c he d by Q ui nn e t a l [ 1996] t ha t l ow e r s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons ( s e a s ona l l y t o m ont hl y) i n c or a l S r / C a c a pt ur e s a n a ve r a ge a nnua l t e m pe r a t u r e s i gn a l ; how e ve r t hi s i s t r ue f or t he c ont i nuous s a m pl i ng m e t h od a nd di s c r e t e s a m pl i n g m a y pr oduc e e r r one ous r e s ul t s i f f r e que nc i e s hi ghe r t ha n t w i c e t he s a m pl i ng i nt e r va l ( N yqui s t f r e que nc y) a r e pr e s e nt A n a ddi t i ona l c ons i de r a t i on i n r e ga r ds t o s a m pl i n g r e s ol ut i on i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t ol ogy i s s e l e c t i ng a s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on w i t h e nough r e s ol ut i on t o e s t a bl i s h a n a ge

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32 m ode l be t w e e n s ync hr onous c or a l r e c or ds f r om m ul t i pl e c or e s a nd s a m pl i ng pa t hs I nve s t i ga t i ons us i ng a s i ngl e c or a l c or e t ypi c a l l y h a ve e s t i m a t e d e r r or s i n c hr onol ogy o f 1 t o 2 ye a r s pe r c e nt ur y, w h e n r obus t c hr onol ogy e r r or a s s e s s m e nt i s not pos s i bl e H ow e ve r t hi s s t udy w a s a bl e t o e s t i m a t e c hr onol o gy e r r or f o r pr e vi ous A m d e s t udi e s us i ng t he f i ve c or e m a s t e r c hr onol ogy f r o m t hi s s t udy. T hi s s t udy f ound a t w o ye a r di s c r e pa nc y out of 92 ye a r s ( 2 % ) i n t he s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f o r 92 P A A 1 [ Q ui nn, e t al 1996; Q ui nn, e t al 1998] a t w o ye a r di s c r e pa nc y out of 34 ye a r s i n t he m ont h l y c or a l S r / C a f or 92 P A D 1, a nd z e r o di s c r e pa nc i e s i n t he 35 ye a r l ong 99 P A A a nd 33 ye a r 92 P A C 1 m ont hl y c o r a l S r / C a r e c or ds w hi c h e qua t e s t o a 2% c hr onol ogy e r r or f o r t he St e phans e t al [ 2004] s t udy. T he m ul t i c or e a ge m ode l va l i da t e s t he e s t i m a t e d c hr onol ogy e r r o r o f t w o ye a r s pe r c e nt ur y W he r e a s s e a s on a l r e s ol ut i on w a s s uf f i c i e nt t o e s t a bl i s h a n a ge m ode l f or a s i ngl e c or a l r e c or d t hi s s t udy f ound e s t a bl i s hi ng a s ync hr onous a ge m ode l a c r os s f i ve c or e s w a s m or e c ha l l e ngi ng. M ul t i c or e a l i gnm e nt ut i l i z e d t he s ha pe t he s e a s ona l r a nge a nd c ha r a c t e r i s t i c s of e a c h c yc l e t o m a t c h c yc l e s be t w e e n c or e s a nd s a m pl i ng pa t hs ; t he i nf o r m a t i on c ont a i ne d w i t hi n t he a nnua l c yc l e s w a s vi t a l i n t he m ul t i c or e a l i gnm e nt A n a ddi t i on a l t ool ut i l i z e d w a s m a gni f i c a t i on o f c or a l s l a bs t o a s s e s s c or a l l i t e gr ow t h di r e c t i on; t hi s t ool w a s e s s e nt i a l t o a s s e s s i ng a ppa r e nt s ync hr onous s e c t i ons f r om t he X r a di o gr a ph a ge m ode l w he r e c o r a l S r / C a c yc l e s di d not m a t c h ( e g. F i gur e 7 a nd 8 ) A l l f i v e of t he m ont hl y c o r a l S r / C a ha ve hi gh c ova r i a nc e ( r > 0. 90; p < 0. 05 ) be t w e e n e a c h ot he r f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y. T he a c c ur a c y of a m ul t i c or e a l i gnm e nt w oul d ha ve be e n m or e di f f i c ul t f or c or a l ge oc he m i c a l r e c or ds s a m pl e d w i t h l e s s t ha n m ont hl y r e s ol ut i on. A f t e r e s t a bl i s hi ng t he a ge m ode l w i t h t he m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons i s ot o pi c a na l ys i s i nvol ve d onl y t he s a m pl e s

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33 i nc l ude d i n t he f i na l a ge m ode l t hus e l i m i na t i ng u nne c e s s a r y i s ot opi c a na l ys e s a nd s a vi ng a na l yt i c a l t i m e a nd e xpe ns e F or m ul t i pl e c or e a l i gnm e nt t he r e i s l i t t l e a dva nt a ge f or s a m pl i ng a t gr e a t e r t ha n m ont hl y r e s ol ut i on ( i e 30 s a m pl e s / ye a r ) t ha t j us t i f i e s i nc r e a s i ng t he s a m pl i ng r e s ol u t i on 5. 2 R e pl i c a t i on of C or a l S r / C a V a r i a t i ons R e pr oduc i bi l i t y of c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons t h r ough t he 20t h c e nt ur y w a s i nve s t i ga t e d us i ng pa r a l l e l c or e s f r o m t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony a nd m ul t i pl e s ync hr onous c or e s f r om c or a l c ol oni e s i n c l os e p r oxi m i t y w i t hi n t he s a m e r e e f T he a ve r a ge o f t he a vg a b s be t w e e n c oe va l m ont hl y S r / C a de t e r m i na t i o ns be t w e e n a ny t w o c or a l S r / C a t i m e s e r i e s w a s 0. 036 0. 028 m m ol / m ol 1 % ; T a bl e 11) w hi c h i s l e s s t ha n t w i c e t he a bs ol ut e va l ue of t he a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on of t he c or a l S r / C a m e a s ur e m e nt s a nd c or r e s ponds t o a n a ve r a ge of f s e t be t w e e n a ny t w o c or e s of 0 65 C a t a ny poi nt i n t i m e A n a r t i f i c i a l s our c e of of f s e t be t w e e n c o r e s i s i na de qua t e a l i gnm e nt of c or a l r e c or ds t o t he S S T r e c or d a nd e ve r y e f f or t w a s m a de t o r e m ove a ny l a r ge of f s e t s due t o c onve r s i on f r om de pt h dom a i n t o t i m e dom a i n T he a vg a b s be t w e e n t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds f r om t h e s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 1, a nd 92 P A A 2) m a y be due t o by di f f e r e nc e s i n s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on a nd s a m pl i ng pa t h. E a c h c or e f r o m P A A w a s s a m pl e d a t s l i ght l y di f f e r e nt r e s ol ut i ons ( 12, 15, a nd 16 s a m pl e s / c m ; T a bl e 2) ; how e ve r t he m e a ns a nd s t a nda r d de vi a t i ons a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 7) T he t hr e e i nt e r c ol ony c or e s ( 92 P A C 1, 92 P A D 1, a nd 99 P A A ) w e r e s a m pl e d a t t h e s a m e r e s ol ut i on ( 16 s a m pl e s / c m ) a nd ha ve a n a vg a b s o f s i m i l a r m a gni t ude t o t he i nt r a c ol ony c o r e s ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 1 92 P A A 2) w hi c h w e r e

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34 s a m pl e d a t di f f e r e nt r e s ol ut i ons ( T a bl e 11) T he e f f e c t s of t he s e s m a l l di f f e r e nc e s i n s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons c a nnot b e di s c ount e d how e ve r t he i nf l ue nc e i s j udge d t o be w i t hi n t he va r i a bi l i t y obs e r ve d a t t hi s l oc a t i on T he s e c ond pos s i bl e s our c e of va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n c or e s i s s a m pl i ng pa t h. T he c or e s 92 P A A 2, 92 P A C 1, 92 P A D 1, a nd 99 P A A ha ve be e n s a m pl e d onl y onc e a nd e a c h w a s s a m pl e d a l ong a m a xi m um gr ow t h a xi s T he c or e 92 P A A 1 ha s be e n s a m pl e d pr e vi ous l y ( T a bl e 1, F i gur e 4 ) a nd t hi s s t udy s a m pl e d pa r a l l e l t o t he pa t h f r om pr e vi ous s t udi e s ; t he r e f or e s l i ght l y of f t he m a xi m um g r ow t h a xi s ( < 0. 5c m ) T he pa r a l l e l pa t h t e s t de m ons t r a t e d t ha t t he c or a l S r / C a va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n a dj a c e nt pa t hs w a s w i t hi n t w i c e t he a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on a nd t he a vg a b s f o r a l l c or e s i n t hi s s t udy ( T a bl e 11 ) i s s i m i l a r t o t he a vg a b s f o r t he pa r a l l e l pa t h t e s t on 92 P A C 1 ( T a bl e 5; F i gur e 6) T he e f f e c t of s a m pl i ng pa r a l l e l t o t he m a xi m um g r ow t h a xi s c a nnot be di s c ount e d, a l t hough t he i nf l ue nc e i s j udge d t o be w i t h i n t he a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on of t hi s s t udy. T he l a r ge s t di s a gr e e m e nt ( ~ 0. 05 m m ol / m o l on a ve r a ge ) i n c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons be t w e e n t he t w o c or e s s pa ns t he i nt e r va l 1951 t o 1 959, w he r e t he 92 P A A 1 c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons a r e hi ghe r t ha n 92 P A A 2 ( F i gur e 1 1 a nd 12) T he m e a n c or a l S r / C a va l ue s of t he 92 P A D 1 a nd 92 P A C 1 r e c or ds a gr e e w i t h t he 92 P A A 2 r e c or d f o r t he pe r i od 1951 t o 1 959. T he 1951 t o 1959 s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 B oc c ur s ne xt t o t he r e gi on ( 1960 t o 196 6) w he r e t he g r ow t h di r e c t i on of t he c or a l l i t e s w a s s ubopt i m a l ( F i gu r e 8) a nd t he di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n s a m pl e s f r om t he o r i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de a nd t he oppos i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B w a s 0. 094 m m ol / m ol ( F i gu r e 7 ) E v i d e nc e of s ubopt i m a l c or a l l i t e gr ow t h w a s not obs e r ve d i n t he 1951 t o 1959 s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 B a nd r e a na l ys i s of t he 92 P A A 1 B s a m pl e s di d not f i nd a ny a na l yt i c a l e r r o r A ddi t i ona l ge oc he m i c a l a na l ys e s

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35 ( 1 8 O 1 3 C a nd M g/ C a ; A ppe ndi x A ) o f t he or i gi n a l s a m pl i ng s i de a nd t he oppos i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B f or t he pe r i od 1960 t o 1969 di d not r e ve a l a m e a n of f s e t be t w e e n oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 B a nd t he of f s e t a ppe a r s t o be uni que t o t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or d. F ur t he r i nve s t i ga t i on i s ne e de d t o de c i phe r t he c or a l S r / C a of f s e t i n t hi s s e c t i on of t he 92 P A A 1 r e c or d F ut u r e w or k w i l l i nc l ude e xt e ndi ng t he s a m pl i ng pa t h on t he oppos i ng s i de of t he s l a b 92 P A A 1 B t o a s s e s s t he c or a l S r / C a va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n oppos i ng s i de s of t he s l a b a nd s a m pl i ng a n a ddi t i o na l pa t h on a not he r c or a l l i t e l obe on t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B I n t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d, t he a ve r a ge o f t he t hr e e c or a l c ol oni e s r e duc e s t he l ow e r t ha n a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a va l ue s i n 92 P A A 1 ( F i gur e 12 ) T he m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a s i gna l a t N e w C a l e doni a f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y i s hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e a s e vi de nc e d by t he hi gh c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n i ndi vi dua l m ont hl y a nom a l y, a nd a nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a nd t he hi g h c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n i n di vi dua l m ont hl y, a nom a l y a nd a nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds w i t h t he r e s pe c t i ve s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds ( T a bl e s 9, 10 a nd 12 ; F i gu r e s 11, 12, a nd 14) T he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of t he c or a l S r / C a s i gna l f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y a gr e e s w i t h t he pr e vi ous s hor t e r i nt e r va l s t udy by St e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd de m ons t r a t e s t he r e pr od uc i bi l i t y of t he c or a l S r / C a s i gna l be t w e e n c or a l c ol oni e s f or t he l onge r 92 ye a r i nt e r v a l T he c or a l S r / C a s i gna l r e pr oduc i bi l i t y r e s ul t s de m ons t r a t e t ha t m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om m ul t i pl e c or e s f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony a nd c or a l c ol oni e s i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y a r e r e c or di ng t he s a m e s i gna l a nd t he m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a s i gn a l i s pr i m a r i l y e nvi r onm e nt a l not bi ol ogi c a l

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36 5.3 Comparison with Dendrochronology Methods This study has demonstrated that multiple monthly coral Sr/Ca records from New Caledonia share a common environmental signal, but how do these results compare w ith statistical methodologies utilized in tree ring based climate studies? Dendrochronologists employ correlation analysis to assess individual chronologies against a master chronology for a region by examining correlation in 50 year windows to identify p ossible problems in the chronology [ Fritts 1976] A similar correlation analysis with the Amde Island monthly coral Sr/Ca records was conducted and found high correlation coefficients ( r > 0.95, p < 0.05; Table 9 and 10) between the coral records and the master coral Sr/Ca record for the periods 1900 to 1999 and 1967 to 1999. Tree ring chronologies are constructed using annual growth rings, and thus have annual resolution. In order to compare the coral records on par with tree ring records, the climatological annual average (April to March) was calculated for each coral Sr/Ca record and correlation analysis was performed; the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.76 to 0.89 between the coral records and the mas ter stack record (Table 12). High correlation among proxy records and climate records indicate sensitive series such as trees in semi arid and drought stricken regions [ Fritts 1976] The mean inter series corre lation coefficient ( ) is the mean of all correlation comparisons between trees in a region with a common signal [ Wigley, et al. 1984] ; equals 0.93 for monthly coral Sr/Ca determinations and 0.63 for annual average coral Sr/Ca for the period 1900 to 1999. The Expressed Population Signal ( EPS ) is the statistical quality of the mean chronology gauged against the hypothetically noise fre e chronology (infinitely replicated) and is given by

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37 (1) where N is the number of records (trees or coral colonies) [ Wigley, et al. 1984] Dendrochrono logists utilized EPS to determine the number of replicates needed to reduce the signal to noise ratio to an acceptable level; the closer the EPS value to one, the stronger the signal and fewer series are needed in the final record; the common acceptable EP S value is 0.85 (Figure 15) [ Wigley, et al. 1984; Briffa 1995] The EPS for this study ( N = 3 coral colonies) is 0.97 for monthly coral Sr/Ca and 0.84 for annual average coral Sr/Ca; this EPS value indicates the stack coral Sr/Ca chronology is acceptable with a high si gnal to noise ratio. One reason for the difference between coral and tree ring records is the ability to use monthly variations to construct a chronology, which gives an advantage to coral and other sub annually resolved proxy records. To determine the n umber of records needed in a coral based reconstruction using and EPS, Figure 15 shows the number of coral records needed to produce an acceptable EPS. For a single coral record with a of 0.85, and for two c oral records with a of 0.75, the EPS is acceptable. The of a single record cannot be determined, but two replicates from a single colony could be utilized or the single record could be compared with an instr umental record. The EPS statistic can evaluate high frequency data but is a poor measure of low frequency replication; Briffa [1995] suggests bootstrapping methods to measure chronology confidence at lower frequencies. The multiple coral record tested using statistical met hods from dendrochronology demonstrate that coral Sr/Ca variations are highly reproducible and should be evaluated as equivalent to highly sensitive tree ring records, which record a common climate signal.

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38 5. 4 C or a l S r / C a R e l a t i ons hi p w i t h S S T A s t r ong r e l a t i ons hi p be t w e e n c o r a l 1 8 O a nd S r / C a w i t h S S T ha s be e n p r e vi ous l y r e por t e d f o r c or a l s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a [ B e c k e t al 1992; Q u i nn e t al 1996; Q ui nn, e t al 1998; Q ui nn and Sam ps on 20 02; St e phans e t al 2004 ] a nd t h i s s t udy s e xpa nde d N e w C a l e doni a c or a l S r / C a r e c or d e xhi bi t s t he s a m e s t r ong r e l a t i ons hi p w i t h S S T ( F i gur e 13 ) T he c or r e l a t i ons be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a f r om 92 P A A 1 a nd S S T a r e s i m i l a r t o t he va l ue s r e por t e d by Q ui nn an d Sam ps on [ 2002] T he c o r r e l a t i on be t w e e n S S T a nd c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O s how s a s l i ght i m pr ove m e nt f r om c or r e l a t i on r e por t e d by S t e phans e t al [ 2004 ] due t o a dj us t m e nt s m a de t o t he c h r onol ogy o f 92 P A D 1. S t a c k a ve r a gi ng t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds i n t o a m a s t e r c or a l S r / C a r e c or d f u r t he r i m pr ove d t he c o r r e l a t i on be t w e e n S S T a nd c or a l S r / C a ( T a bl e 9 a nd 10 ) T he e xt e ns i on of t he A m d e I s l a nd c or a l S r / C a r e c or d de m ons t r a t e s t ha t t he m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a s i gna l r e m a i ns s t r ongl y c or r e l a t e d w i t h S S T i n t he 20t h c e nt ur y, bot h m ont hl y i n s i t u S S T a nd H a dI S S T _A I a nd t ha t t he c o r r e l a t i on r e m a i ns c on s t a nt f or m on t hl y a nom a l i e s a nd a nnua l a ve r a ge s f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y ( T a bl e 10 a nd 12 ) A c om pa r i s on w i t h ot he r m ont hl y gr i dde d S S T da t a p r oduc t s ( E R S S T [ Sm i t h and R e y nol ds 2004] C O A D S [ Sl ut z e t a l 1985] a nd G I S S T [ P ar k e r e t al 1995] ) s how s s i m i l a r r e s ul t s f o r g r i d a r e a s c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd. A s di s c us s e d i n t he M e t hods s e c t i on, s e ve r a l r e gr e s s i on m e t hods ha ve be e n ut i l i z e d i n c or a l ba s e d S S T r e c ons t r uc t i ons a nd t hi s s t udy us e d a ge ne r a l i z e d M L E m e t hod [ Y or k and E v e ns e n 2004] w hi c h i s s i m i l a r t o t he ge ne r a l i z e d l e a s t s qua r e s m e t hod [ Y or k 1969 ] t o f or m ul a t e t he S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on ( c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd c o r a l 1 8 O S S T ) A ddi t i ona l l y t h i s s t udy m a de a c om pa r i s on of t he M L E s ol ut i on t o t he ot he r

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39 r e gr e s s i on m e t hods ( O L S a nd R M A ) us e d i n c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons T he M L E t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f or t he m on t hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w i t h i n s i t u S S T w a s e s t i m a t e d f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1999 ( r = 0 9 5, p < 0. 05 n = 392 ) us i ng 1 ) a c o r a l S r / C a e r r or m a t r i x ( % x i ) ba s e d on t he e r r o r e s t i m a t e d f or e a c h m ont h by t he de vi a t i on be t w e e n t he i ndi vi dua l r e c or ds a nd t he s t a c k r e c or d a nd t he num b e r of r e c or ds i n t he s t a c k a ve r a ge f or t ha t m ont h; 2 ) t he S S T e r r or m a t r i x ( % y i ) ba s e d on t ype of m e a s ur e m e nt a nd num be r of obs e r va t i ons ; a nd 3 ) t he e s t i m a t e o f c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he e r r o r s i n S S T a nd c or a l S r / C a ( r i ) F o r c om pa r i s on w i t h O L S m e t hods t he M L E t r a ns f e r f unc t i on w a s c a l c ul a t e d w i t h t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( x ) a s bot h S S T a nd c or a l S r / C a S S T ( C ) = 193. 45( 1. 72 2 % ) + S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) 18 514( 0. 187 2 % ) ( 2) S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) = 10 449 ( 0. 013, 2 % ) 0. 0540( 0. 001, 2 % ) S S T ( C ) ( 3) T he m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons a nd t he c or r e s pondi ng m ont hl y i n s i t u S S T w i t h e r r or ba r s a r e pl ot t e d i n F i gu r e 16. T he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w i t h onl y one obs e r va t i on ha ve l a r ge r e r r o r ba r s a nd a l l t he o bs e r va t i ons out s i de t he m a i n da t a c l us t e r a r e s i ngl e obs e r va t i ons ( F i gu r e 16) T he s t a nda r d e r r or of r e gr e s s i on ( % re g = 1. 35 C ) w a s c a l c ul a t e d us i ng e f f e c t i ve de g r e e s of f r e e dom ( dof = 105) w hi c h a c c ount s f or s e r i a l c or r e l a t i on; t h i s di f f e r s f r om t he % re g c a l c ul a t e d us i ng num be r o f obs e r va t i ons ( n = 392; % re g = 0. 68 C ) T he s t a nda r d e r r o r o f t he s l op e a nd i nt e r c e pt w a s c a l c ul a t e d w i t h t he w e i ght s f or S S T a nd c or a l S r / C a w hi c h w e r e ba s e d on t he e r r or e s t i m a t e a nd num be r of obs e r va t i ons f or e a c h m ont h T he i m pl e m e nt a t i on of M L E i n t hi s s t udy a l l ow e d t he e va l ua t i on of t he O L S a nd R M A m e t hods by t e s t i ng t he O L S a s s um pt i ons w hi c h i nc l ude a n e r r or f r e e i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e a nd t he c ons t a nt va r i a nc e i n t he r e gr e s s or s T ypi c a l l y, i n c or a l ba s e d S S T

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40 r e c ons t r uc t i ons us i ng O L S S S T i s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e a nd t he c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y i s t he de pe nde nt va r i a bl e s o t ha t t he va r i a bl e w i t h t he l e a s t a m ount of unc e r t a i nt y i s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e H ow e ve r O L S doe s not pr o duc e t he s a m e s ol ut i on w he n e xc ha ngi ng t he va r i a bl e s ( F i gu r e 16) [ Y or k 1966; D av i s 2002] T o i l l us t r a t e t he non s ym m e t r i c a l na t ur e of O L S us i ng da t a f r om t hi s s t udy, t he O L S r e gr e s s i on w a s pe r f or m e d us i ng bot h S S T a nd c o r a l S r / C a a s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( T a bl e 13) a nd a ppl yi ng t h e O L S t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons t o s ol ve f o r S S T E a c h O L S s ol ut i on pr oduc e d t he s a m e m e a n f o r S S T ; how e ve r t he pr e di c t e d S S T s ha ve di f f e r e nt s l ope s a nd t he s t a nda r d de vi a t i ons di f f e r by 0. 26 C ( F i gu r e 16) R M A pr oduc e s i de nt i c a l r e s ul t s r e ga r dl e s s of w hi c h va r i a bl e i s de pe nde nt or i nde pe nde nt ( T a bl e 13, F i gur e 16) [ Y or k 1966 ; D av i s 2002 ] R M A i nc l ude s t he va r i a nc e of t he de pe nde nt a nd i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e s i n t he r e gr e s s i on ( s l ope = % x / % y ) a nd doe s not t r e a t e r r o r i n t he r e gr e s s or s a s e qua l w he r e a s m a j or a xi s or P r i nc i pl e C om pone nt A na l ys i s c ons i de r s t he va r i a nc e of t he de pe nde nt a nd i nde pe nde nt a s e qua l [ Y or k 1966; D av i s 2002] F or t hi s s t udy, t he R M A s ol ut i on f o r c or a l S r / C a S S T r e pr oduc e d t he m e a n a nd t he va r i a nc e of t he o bs e r ve d S S T ( 23. 51 1. 82 C 1 % ) L i ke R M A M L E r e gr e s s i on m e t hod [ Y or k and E v e ns e n, 2004] i nc l ude s t he va r i a nc e of bot h r e gr e s s or s t hus ne ga t i ng t he ne e d t o s e t S S T a s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e T he M L E s ol ut i ons w i t h i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e s t r a ns pos e d ( e qua t i ons 2 a nd 3) a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( F i gur e 16) a nd t he M L E s ol ut i on pr oduc e d a s m a l l i nc r e a s e i n t he s t a nd a r d de vi a t i on of t he pr e di c t e d S S T ( 0. 02 C ) c om pa r e d w i t h t he obs e r ve d S S T T he M L E s ol ut i on i s not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r om t he R M A s ol ut i on f or t hi s s t udy. T he O L S s l ope i s not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r om t he R M A o r M L E s l ope w he n i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( x ) i s S r / C a ; how e ve r t he O L S s l ope i s s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r om t he M L E

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41 s l ope w he n t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e i s S S T A n a dva nt a ge us i ng t he Y or k e t al [ 2004] i m pl e m e nt a t i on of M L E r e gr e s s i on i s t he a bi l i t y t o w e i ght t he e r r or s f or e a c h o f t he r e gr e s s or s i ns t e a d of a s s um i ng e a c h obs e r va t i on ha s e qua l va r i a nc e T he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a i s t he a ve r a ge o f t he f i ve c o r a l r e c or ds us e d i n t he s t udy; how e ve r f o r e a c h m ont h t he num be r o f obs e r va t i ons c a n va r y be t w e e n one a nd f i ve a nd t he r e f or e e xt r a w e i ght i s gi ve n t o m ont hs w i t h m ul t i p l e obs e r va t i ons ve r s us m ont hs w i t h onl y a s i ngl e obs e r va t i on ( F i gur e 16 ) Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] di s c us s e d t he pot e nt i a l f or bi a s i n O L S l i ne a r r e gr e s s i on w he n S S T i s us e d a s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e a nd S S T i s a s s um e d t o be w i t hout e r r o r T he y pr opos e d a b i a s c or r e c t i on us i ng a n e s t i m a t e of t he S S T m e a s ur e m e nt e r r or T he bi a s not e d by Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] c a n be c or r e c t e d by us i ng a r e gr e s s i on m e t hod t ha t i nc or por a t e s e r r or i n bot h r e g r e s s or s s uc h a s t he M L E m e t hod by Y or k e t al [ 2004] or R M A [ K e r m ac k and H al dane 1950; D av i s 2002 ] H ow e ve r t he e r r or i n bot h r e gr e s s or s i s ne e de d a n d t he M L E m e t hod r e qui r e s c om put i ng pow e r ( e g M a t L a b) w hi c h i s not a va i l a bl e i n m a ny of f t he s he l f s t a t i s t i c s pr ogr a m s T hi s s t udy w a s f or t una t e i n ha vi ng a da i l y i n s i t u S S T r e c or d i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y t o t he c or a l c ol oni e s i n or de r t o a s s e s s t he e r r or i n t he S S T m e a s ur e m e nt i n de t a i l T he A m d e I s l a nd m ont hl y S S T e r r or w a s e s t i m a t e d us i ng t he da i l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s a nd i ns t r um e nt a l pr e c i s i on ( % p re c i s i o n = 0. 2 C ) T he m e t hod of m e a s ur i ng t e m pe r a t ur e i n t he A m d e I s l a nd r e c or d c ha nge d i n 1997 f r om buc ke t m e a s ur e m e nt s t o de pl oye d a ut om a t i c i ns t r um e nt a l m e a s ur e m e nt s A hi s t ogr a m of t he da i l y buc ke t m e a s ur e m e nt s r e ve a l e d ~ 30% of t he r e a di ngs w e r e w hol e num be r s ( 10% a r e e xpe c t e d t o be w hol e num be r s ) w hi c h w e r e a s s um e d t o be r e c or di ng e r r o r s w he r e r e a di ngs w e r e r ounde d t o a w hol e

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42 num be r ( % ro u n d e d = 0. 5 C ) a nd e xa m i na t i on o f t he da i l y buc ke t S S T r e c or d f ound a pe r i od of t i m e ( ~ 1 ye a r ) w he r e a l l S S T r e a di ngs w e r e r ounde d t o a w hol e nu m be r T he da i l y m e a s ur e m e nt e r r or f o r t he pe r i od 1967 t o 19 97 w a s i nc r e a s e d t o 0. 26 C t o a c c ount f or pos s i bi l i t y o f r e c or di ng e r r or s ( 80 % 0. 2 C + 20% 0. 5 C = 0. 26 C ) T he da i l y S S T r e a di ngs a t A m d e I s l a nd w e r e t a k e n a t ~ 7 A M l oc a l t i m e ; how e ve r t he r e c or di ng t i m e di d va r y ove r t he 33 ye a r r e c or d D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and [ 1997] us e d t he A m d e I s l a nd S S T da t a s e t i n t he i r s t udy a nd t he y a dj us t e d t he da i l y obs e r va t i ons t o 7 A M ba s e d on a m e a n di u r na l c yc l e of a n a l m os t l i ne a r i nc r e a s e of 0 1 C pe r h our be t w e e n 5 A M a nd 3 P M A f t e r a dj us t i ng t he da i l y S S T t o 7 A M t he m ont hl y a ve r a ge S S T a nd t he m ont hl y a ve r a ge e r r or w a s c a l c ul a t e d us i ng t he s t a nda r d e r r o r of a m e a n T he A m d e I s l a nd m ont hl y S S T r e c or d c ont a i ne d m ont hs w e r e w he r e no m e a s ur e m e nt s w e r e m a de a nd t he c o r r e s pondi ng S S T f r om t he a d j us t e d H a dI S S T _A I r e c or d w a s us e d t o c om pl e t e t he r e c or d R ay ne r e t al [ 2003] r e por t s t he m ont hl y H a dI S S T 1 1 e r r or f or a 2 gr i d box de c r e a s e d f r om 0 6 t o 0. 3 C f or t he pe r i o d 1960 t o 1995 a nd t he c or r e s pondi ng e r r or w a s us e d f o r t he a d j us t e d H a dI S S T _A I va l ue s i n t he c om pl e t e d A m d e I s l a nd S S T r e c or d. M L E r e gr e s s i on us e d a n e r r or m a t r i x c ont a i ni ng a l l t he e r r or i nf o r m a t i on f or t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or d t o f or m ul a t e t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i o n ( e qua t i ons 2 a nd 3) o f c or a l S r / C a t o S S T ; t he m e a n of t he S S T m e a s ur e m e nt e r r o r ( % S S T ) = 0 09 C 0. 13 ( 1 % ) I f t he Sol ow and H ube r t [ 2004] S S T bi a s ( % 2 ( ) i nt r oduc e d by O L S r e gr e s s i on w a s e s t i m a t e d a s 0. 14, t he bi a s c or r e c t i on w oul d pr oduc e t he s a m e r e s ul t s a s t he M L E t r a ns f e r f unc t i on a s s um i ng t he i n s i t u S S T i s t he be s t e s t i m a t e of t he t r ue m on t hl y S S T T he % 2 ( ne e de d t o c or r e c t t he O L S t r a ns f e r f unc t i on i s a n o r de r o f m a gni t ude gr e a t e r t ha n t he e s t i m a t e of S S T m e a s ur e m e nt va r i a nc e ( % 2 ( = 0 017) f or t he i n s i t u S S T a t A m d e I s l a nd. W i t hout

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43 S S T m e a s ur e m e nt e r r or i nf o r m a t i on, a ppl yi ng t he Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] bi a s c or r e c t i on i s di f f i c ul t a nd i s r e duc e d t o a be s t gue s s St e phans e t a l [ 2004] us e d t he s a m e S S T a nd s om e of s a m e c or a l r e c or ds a s t hi s s t udy; how e ve r t h e y a ppl i e d t he Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] bi a s c or r e c t i on, w hi c h i s s i gni f i c a n t l y di f f e r e nt f r om t he M L E s ol ut i on f or t hi s s t udy A s t r a i ght f o r w a r d s ol ut i on t o t he O L S bi a s pr ob l e m di s c us s e d by Sol ow and H uppe r t [ 2004] i s us i ng a r e gr e s s i on m e t hod s uc h a s M L E w hi c h i nc or po r a t e s t he e r r or i n bot h t he de pe nde nt a nd i nde pe nde nt va r i a b l e C or r g e [ 2006] s um m a r i z e d t he di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n publ i s he d c or a l S r / C a S S T c a l i br a t i on e qua t i ons a nd f ound a w i de va r i e t y of e qua t i ons r e ga r dl e s s of l oc a t i on. S i m i l a r l y, t he s um m a r y of publ i s he d c a l i br a t i on e q ua t i ons f or c or a l S r / C a S S T f or N e w C a l e doni a ( T a bl e 13) s how s a w i de va r i a bi l i t y i n t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f o r c or a l S r / C a S S T ( & s l ope = 0 031 m m ol m ol 1 C 1 ) f r om t he s a m e l oc a t i on. A l l t he s t udi e s w i t h t he e xc e pt i on of O ur bak e t al [ 2006] us e d m ont hl y s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on. T he C or r ge [ 2006] a nd O ur bak e t al [ 2006 ] s t ud i e s w e r e c ond uc t e d a t U i t o w hi c h i s l oc a t e d 36 km nor t h of A m d e I s l a nd. P os s i bl e e xpl a na t i ons f or t he va r i a bi l i t y i n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on i nc l ude : 1 ) a na l yt i c a l m e t hods 2) r e gr e s s i on m e t hods 3) l e ngt h of c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l 4) s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on 5 ) c or a l va r i a bi l i t y a nd 6 ) r e gr e s s i on w i t h di f f e r e nt S S T r e c or ds T he s t udi e s l i s t e d i n T a bl e 13 w e r e c onduc t e d i n f our di f f e r e nt l a bor a t or i e s us i ng di f f e r e nt a na l yt i c a l m e t hods a nd i nt e r na l l a bo r a t or y s t a nda r ds T he s t udi e s of A m d e I s l a nd c or a l s r e gr e s s e d us i ng O L S w i t h t he s a m e i n s i t u S S T r e c or d ( B e c k e t al [ 1992] Q ui nn and Sam ps on [ 2002] S t e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd t hi s s t udy) a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt e ve n t hough c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w e r e m a de a t di f f e r e nt l a bs H ow e ve r t he s e s t udi e s a r e di f f e r e nt f r om t he s t udi e s by C or r ge e t al

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44 [ 2000] a nd M ont aggi oni e t al [ 2006] bot h of w hi c h us e d c or a l s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, t he s a m e S S T r e c or d a nd r e gr e s s i on w i t h O L S O ur bak e t al [ 2006 ] c onduc t e d r e pl i c a t e a na l ys i s of a c or a l f r om U i t o ( F i gur e 1 ) us i ng I C P A E S a nd I C P M S a nd f ound t he s l ope s di f f e r e d by 0 015 m m ol / m ol pe r C us i ng t h e s a m e S S T r e c or d a nd r e gr e s s i on m e t hod. Q ui nn and Sam ps on [ 2002] a nd C or r ge [ 2006] di s c us s t he ne e d f or s t a nda r di z e d r e f e r e nc e f or c or a l S r / C a s i m i l a r t o t h e us e of t he s t a nda r d N B S 19 f o r c or a l 1 8 O T he di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n l a bs a nd m e t hodol ogi e s ne e ds t o be c ons i de r e d w he n c om pa r i ng c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons A s pr e vi ous l y di s c us s e d, t he r e gr e s s i on m e t hods O L S R M A a nd M L E ha ve t he pot e nt i a l t o i nt r oduc e di f f e r e nc e s i n t he c o r a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on. R e gr e s s i on m e t hod c a n pr oduc e s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt s l ope s a s not e d by t hi s s t udy ( T a bl e 13; F i gu r e 16) a nd i s f ur t he r c om pl i c a t e d by s t udi e s us i n g onl y t he m a xi m um a nd m i ni m u m va l ue s f or t he c a l i br a t i on [ M ont aggi oni e t al 2006 ] a nd s t udi e s us i ng bi a s c or r e c t i on [ St e phans e t a l 2004] M ont agg i oni e t al [ 2006] us e d O L S w i t h m a xi m um a nd m i ni m um va l ue s a nd pr oduc e d s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f r om t he ot he r publ i s he d c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons f o r N e w C a l e doni a T he l e ngt h o f t he c a l i br a t i on i n t e r va l ha s a n i nf l ue nc e on t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on; t he l onge r t he c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l t he num be r of obs e r va t i ons i nc r e a s e s t hus i nc r e a s i ng t he c onf i de nc e i n t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on C a l i br a t i ons ove r s hor t i n t e r va l s of t i m e m a y be i n f l ue nc e d by a nom a l ous e ve nt s s uc h a s E N S O e ve nt s T he l ong i nt e r va l s t udi e s ( > 20 ye a r s T a bl e 13 ) ha ve s l ope s t ha t a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( Q ui nn and Sam ps on [ 2002] St e phans e t a l [ 2004] a nd O L S t hi s s t udy ) a nd ha ve h i ghe r goodne s s of f i t c oe f f i c i e nt s w i t h S S T ( R T a bl e 13) T he s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on m a y be r e s pons i bl e f or va r i a bi l i t y i n t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons ; how e ve r

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45 t he m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on t e s t c onduc t e d by t hi s s t udy s how e d t he di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n m ont hl y a nd f o r t ni ght l y c or a l S r / C a w a s i ns i gni f i c a nt A not he r s our c e o f di f f e r e nc e s i n t he c o r a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i o ns t ha t ne e ds t o be c ons i de r e d i s c or a l S r / C a va r i a bi l i t y i n w hi c h t he c or a l s a r e not r e c or d i ng t he s a m e s i gna l H ow e ve r t he i nve s t i ga t i ons by t hi s s t udy a nd St e phans e t a l [ 20 04] de m ons t r a t e t ha t di f f e r e nt c or a l c ol oni e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd a r e r e c or di ng t he s a m e c or a l S r / C a s i gna l T he S S T r e c or d us e d f or r e g r e s s i on i s t he l a s t s our c e of di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons A l l of t he A m d e I s l a nd c or a l s t udi e s ( T a bl e 13) us e d t he s a m e i n s i t u S S T r e c or d a nd t he t w o U i t o c or a l s t udi e s us e d t he s a m e U i t o i n s i t u S S T r e c or d C or r ge [ 2006] di s c us s e d t he di f f e r e nc e s i n c a l i br a t i ng a c or a l r e c or d f r om U i t o w i t h S S T r e c or ds f r om a i n s i t u s our c e ( U i t o ) a r e gi ona l s our c e ( A m d e ) a nd a g r i dde d S S T da t a pr oduc t [ I G O S S ; R e y nol ds e t a l 2002] a nd f ound s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt s l ope s A n i nt e r e s t i ng f ut ur e i nve s t i ga t i on w oul d be r e s ol vi ng t he di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t he N e w C a l e do ni a r e c or ds by qua nt i f yi ng t he di f f e r e nc e s b e t w e e n t he l a bor a t or i e s a nd t he n c om pa r i ng a l l t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds t o e xa m i ne c om m on s i gna l s be t w e e n c or a l s e s pe c i a l l y be t w e e n A m d e I s l a nd a nd U i t o i n or de r t o bui l d a m a s t e r c or a l S r / C a r e c or d s i m i l a r t o m a s t e r r e c or ds pr oduc e d i n t r e e r i ng s t udi e s T he m a s t e r N e w C a l e doni a r e c or d c oul d t he n be us e d t o c r e a t e a t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f or c or a l S r / C a S S T ba s e d on a l l t he c or a l r e c or ds f r om N e w C a l e doni a T hi s m a s t e r c o r a l S r / C a t r a ns f e r f unc t i on w oul d m i ni m i z e t he i nf l ue nc e of s ub opt i m a l s a m pl i ng, s hor t r e c or d l e ngt h, a nd i ndi vi dua l c or a l c ol ony va r i a bi l i t y on t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on

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46 5. 5 C a l i br a t i on a nd V e r i f i c a t i on A ne c e s s a r y s t e p i n t he c a l i br a t i on o f a c l i m a t e pr o xy i s t he ve r i f i c a t i on of t he c a l i br a t i on a ga i ns t a n i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t f or t he c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l ( i n t hi s c a s e 1967 t o 1999) a nd out s i de t he c a l i b r a t i on i nt e r va l ( i n t hi s c a s e 1900 t o 1967 ) P r e vi ous A m d e I s l a nd c or a l S r / C a s t udi e s [ Q ui nn and Sa m ps on 2002; St e phans e t al 2004] f ound good a g r e e m e nt be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd gr i dde d S S T ( G I S S T 2 da t a s e t ) [ P ar k e r e t al 1995] f or t he c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l ( 1 967 t o 1992) a nd t h i s s t udy s uppor t s t he i r f i ndi ngs ( F i gu r e 17) C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] c onduc t e d a c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t of t he s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f r om t he c or a l c or e 92 P A A 1 f o r t he pe r i od 1900 t o 1992 a nd i nf e r r e d a 2 25 C c ool i ng i n t he e a r l y 20 t h c e nt ur y f r om t he c or a l 1 8 O C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] c onduc t e d a n a ddi t i ona l ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t us i ng c or a l S r / C a f or t he pe r i od 1898 t o 1910, w hi c h di d not r e pr oduc e t he c or a l 1 8 O r e s ul t s but di d ve r i f y w i t h gr i dde d S S T T hi s s t udy t a ke s a c l os e r e xa m i na t i on o f t he c or a l S r / C a c a l i br a t i on by ve r i f i c a t i on ove r a c e nt ur y a ga i ns t t he i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t H a dI S S T 1 1 [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] e xt r a c t e d f r om a 1 gr i d c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd ( 22. 5 S 166 5 E ) T he m e a n o f H a dI S S T _A I f or A m d e I s l a nd i s g r e a t e r t ha n t he m e a n of t he i n s i t u S S T ( & = 1 16 C ) f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1999. T he di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n t he gr i dde d S S T da t a pr od uc t s a nd i n s i t u S S T a t A m d e I s l a nd a nd U i t o ha s pr e vi o us l y be e n obs e r ve d [ D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and 1997; C r ow l e y e t al 1999; H ni n an d C r e s s w e l l 2005] a nd m a y be due t o l oc a l i z e d upw e l l i ng [ H ni n and C r e s s w e l l 2005; A l or y e t al 2006; M ont aggi oni e t al 2006; O ur bak e t al 2006] w a t e r de pt h f or i n s i t u S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s ( 10 m ) t i m e of da y f or i n s i t u m e a s ur e m e nt s ( 7 A M ; c f S e c t i on 2) a nd i n s i t u m e a s ur e m e nt m e t hod

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47 bi a s ( buc ke t m e a s ur e m e nt ve r s us de pl oye d i ns t r um e nt ) V e r i f i c a t i on w a s c onduc t e d i n t w o r e f e r e nc e f r a m e s : H a dI S S T _A I a dj us t e d t o t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or d ( a dj H a dI S S T ) a nd H a dI S S T _A I a nd c or a l S r / C a S S T nor m a l i z e d T hi s s t udy a dopt e d of ve r i f i c a t i on s t a t i s t i c s f r om d e ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy [ F r i t t s 1976; F r i t t s e t al 1979; F r i t t s e t al 1 990] t o qua nt i f y t he l e ve l of ve r i f i c a t i on ( T a bl e 14) T he c or r e l a t i on t e s t be t w e e n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd t he i nde pe nde nt S S T i s hi ghl y s i gni f i c a nt ( T a bl e 14) f or a l l i nt e r va l s e xa m i ne d a nd t he c or a l S r / C a S S T s ha r e s 86% of t he H a dI S S T _A I va r i a nc e T he s i gn t e s t i s a nonp a r a m e t r i c t e s t of s i m i l a r i t y be t w e e n da t a s e t s t ha t e xa m i ne s t he di r e c t i on o f c ha nge w i t h no c ons i de r a t i on f or m a gni t ud e [ F r i t t s 1976; F r i t t s e t al 1990] ; t he s i gn t e s t f ou nd a hi gh pe r c e nt a ge of s ha r e d s i m i l a r i t y f o r bot h m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a S S T va r i a t i ons a nd c or a l S r / C a S S T a nom a l i e s f or a l l i nt e r va l s e xa m i ne d ( T a bl e 14 ) T he r e duc t i on of e r r or t e s t i s s i m i l a r t o t he c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt s qua r e d a nd m e a s ur e s t he a s s oc i a t i on be t w e e n pr e di c t e d va l ue s a nd t he i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t w he r e va l ue s c l os e t o + 1 i ndi c a t e hi gh a gr e e m e nt [ L or e nz 1 956; F r i t t s 1976] ; t he r e duc t i on of e r r or c a l c ul a t e d f or a l l i nt e r va l s e xa m i ne d a nd f ound s i gni f i c a nt a gr e e m e nt ( p < 0. 01 ) be t w e e n t he r e c or ds ( T a bl e 14) T he pr oduc t m e a ns t e s t i s s i m i l a r t o t he r e duc t i on of e r r or t e s t ; how e ve r m a gni t ude s a r e c ons i de r e d, a nd t he s i gni f i c a nc e i s t e s t e d us i ng t he t s t a t i s t i c [ F r i t t s e t al 1979] T he p r oduc t m e a ns t e s t f or a l l i nt e r va l s e xa m i ne d f ound s i gni f i c a nt a g r e e m e nt ( p < 0. 01 ) be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd H a dI S S T _A I f o r a l l i nt e r va l s e xa m i ne d ( T a bl e 14) T he ve r i f i c a t i on e r r or be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd t he H a dI S S T _A I f o r t he 20 t h c e nt ur y i nt e r va l i s 0. 19 C l e s s t ha n t he s t a nda r d e r r or of t he c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l T he r e s i dua l s ove r t i m e e xhi bi t do m i na nc e i n pos i t i ve r e s i dua l s f r om 1967 t o 1985 a nd a dom i na nc e of ne ga t i ve r e s i dua l s f r o m 1985

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48 t o 2000 ( F i gur e 17c ) a nd t hi s pa t t e r n i n t he r e s i dua l s m a y be a t t r i bu t e d t o a ne ga t i ve t r e nd of 0. 6 C ove r t he 33 ye a r i n s i t u S S T r e c or d t ha t i s not pr e s e nt i n e i t he r t he c or a l S r / C a or H a dI S S T _A I dur i ng t hi s t i m e i nt e r va l T he ne g a t i ve t r e nd i n t he i n s i t u S S T m a y be a s our c e of s om e of t he e r r or due t o r e gr e s s i on f i t t i n g m os t l y hi g h f r e que nc i e s r a t he r t ha n l ow f r e que nc i e s O ve r a l l t he c a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t s de m ons t r a t e t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f o r t he m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T ve r i f i e s i n bot h t he c a l i br a t i on i nt e r va l a nd f or 20t h c e nt ur y w i t h H a dI S S T _A I T he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d e xhi bi t s a s t r ong c ohe r e nc e w i t h t he i n s i t u S S T a nd t he 1 g r i dde d S S T da t a s e t H a dI S S T _A I ( F i gur e 1 7) T he H a dI S S T 1. 1 gl oba l S S T da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] doe s not i nc l ude t h e num be r of obs e r va t i ons f or e a c h gr i d box; how e ve r H a dI S S T 1 1 da t a ba s e i nc l ude s S S T obs e r va t i ons f r om t he C O A D S S S T da t a ba s e [ W oodr uf f e t al 1987; W oodr uf f e t al 1998] w hi c h doe s i nc l ude t he num be r of obs e r va t i ons a nd F i gu r e 17d s how s t he nu m be r of obs e r va t i ons f r om t he C O A D S da t a ba s e [ W oodr uf f e t al 1998] t ha t c o r r e s pond t o t he 2 gr i d box f or A m d e I s l a nd ( c e nt e r e d on 23 S 167 E ) T he c ohe r e nc e w i t h t he gr i dde d S S T H a dI S S T _A I i s h i gh f o r t he l a t e 20t h c e nt ur y w h i c h c or r e s ponds t o a t i m e w he n t he num be r o f S S T obs e r va t i ons i s hi gh ( F i gu r e 17) a nd w he n s a t e l l i t e s a r e us e d t o e s t i m a t e S S T a r ound t he g l obe T he m i s f i t be t w e e n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c or d a nd t he gr i dde d S S T r e c or d i s gr e a t e s t i n t he e a r l y 20t h c e nt u r y a t i m e w he n t he num be r of obs e r va t i ons i n t he g r i dde d S S T p r oduc t i s l ow ( F i gu r e 17) T he c o r a l S r / C a S S T r e c ons t r uc t i on e xhi bi t s de c a da l s c a l e f l uc t ua t i ons t ha t e xc e e d t hos e obs e r ve d i n t he g r i dde d S S T t i m e s e r i e s ( F i gur e 17 ) w hi c h m a y r e f l e c t t r ue di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t he S S T a t a s ha l l ow r e e f s i t e a nd t hos e a ve r a ge d ove r a 1 g r i d box or t he y m a y r e f l e c t i na de qua c i e s i n t he m e t hodol ogy us e d t o c r e a t e t he gr i dde d S S T

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49 pr oduc t w he n f e w obs e r va t i ons a r e a va i l a bl e T he one e xc e pt i on oc c ur s dur i ng t he pe r i od 1942 t o 1946 w he n t he num be r of obs e r va t i ons s ha r pl y i nc r e a s e s ( F i gur e 17d) D u r i ng W or l d W a r I I N oum a s e r ve d a s a ba s e f o r A l l i e d ope r a t i ons i n t he P a c i f i c a nd t he i nc r e a s e i n na va l a c t i vi t y du r i ng t hi s t i m e i s t he r e a s on f or t he i nc r e a s e i n obs e r va t i ons D ur i ng t hi s pe r i od t he r e s i dua l s be t w e e n gr i dde d S S T a nd t he pr e di c t e d S S T de c r e a s e s T he r e f or e c a r e f ul e xa m i na t i on of S S T da t a pr oduc t s i s ne e de d w he n t he s e pr oduc t s a r e us e d f or c a l i br a t i ng c or a l ba s e d pa l e ot he r m om e t e r s 5. 6 C or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O V a r i a t i ons T he s t a c k a ve r a ge m ont hl y c or a l 1 8 O w a s e va l ua t e d us i ng t he s a m e t e c hni que s a ppl i e d t o t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d ( A ppe ndi x B ) T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O a nd S S T i nc r e a s e d s l i ght l y c om pa r e d w i t h St e phans e t al [ 2004] due t o a dj us t m e nt s m a de t o t he c hr onol ogy T he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f o r s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O t o S S T w a s c a l c ul a t e d us i ng t he M L E r e gr e s s i on s i m i l a r t o t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1999 ( r = 0. 89 p < 0 05, n = 392) S S T ( C ) = 6. 42 ( 0. 55, 2 % ) + 1 8 O ( ) 6 85( 0. 13, 2 % ) ( 4) 1 8 O ( ) = 0. 936 ( 0. 064, 2 % ) + S S T ( C ) 0 146 ( 0. 003, 2 % ) ( 5) T he s t a nda r d e r r o r o f r e g r e s s i on ( % re g = 1 17 C ) w a s c a l c ul a t e d us i ng e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom ( dof = 105 ) U nl i ke c or a l S r / C a t he R M A a nd O L S s ol ut i ons f or t he m on t hl y s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O a r e s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r om e a c h ot he r ( p > 0 05) ; how e ve r t he y a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r om t he M L E s ol ut i on T he M L E c or a l 1 8 O S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on i s s i gni f i c a nt d i f f e r e nt ( p > 0 05) f r om t he St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] t r a ns f e r f unc t i on; how e ve r t he O L S s ol ut i on f or t hi s s t udy i s not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f r o m

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50 St e phans e t al [ 2004] Q ui nn e t al [ 1998 ] ge ne r a t e d 1 8 O S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons ba s e d on 92 P A A 1 us i ng di f f e r e nt r e s ol ut i ons ( m on t hl y, qua r t e r l y, a nd m e a n a nnua l ) a nd bot h i n s i t u S S T f r om A m d e I s l a nd a nd 1 gr i dde d S S T da t a s e t f r om G I S S T 2 [ P ar k e r e t al ] T he m ont h l y s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O S S T t r a ns f e r f u nc t i on f r om t hi s s t udy ha s a c l os e r a gr e e m e nt w i t h t he m e a n a nnua l e qua t i ons f r o m Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] w hi c h us e d t he G I S S T 2 f or t he S S T da t a s e t C a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on t e s t s of c or a l 1 8 O S S T w i t h H a dI S S T _A I r e ve a l a gr e e m e nt i n t he c a l i b r a t i on i n t e r va l ( 1967 t o 1999 ) a nd 1950 t o 1900; how e ve r t he a gr e e m e nt de c l i ne s f o r t he e a r l y 20t h c e nt ur y ( F i gu r e 13c ) ; a s i m i l a r l a c k of ve r i f i c a t i on f o r c or a l 1 8 O w a s n ot e d by C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] P a i r e d a na l ys i s of c o r a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O ha s be e n u s e d i n t he r e c ons t r uc t i on o f s e a s ur f a c e s a l i ni t y vi a i t s r e l a t i on w i t h 1 8 O s w [ M c C ul l oc h, e t al 1994; G agan, e t al 1998; R e n, e t al 2003 ] St e phans e t al [ 2004] a s s e s s e d t he f i de l i t y of t he 1 8 O s w r e c ons t r uc t i on f or A m d e I s l a nd a ga i ns t t he i n s i t u S S S m e a s ur e m e nt s f or t he pe r i od 1973 t o 1992 a nd f ound a m ode s t f i t be t w e e n 1 8 O s w de t e r m i ne d f r om c o r a l ge oc he m i s t r y a nd i n s i t u S S S ( r < 0 33) S i m i l a r r e s ul t s w e r e f o und by O ur bak e t al [ 2006] a t U i t o 36 km nor t h of A m d e I s l a nd ( F i gur e 1) T hi s s t u dy m a de a s i m i l a r a s s e s s m e nt of 1 8 O s w us i ng t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a a nd s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O r e c or ds f o r t he pe r i od 1973 t o 1999 a nd t he e nha nc e m e nt s m a de by t h i s s t udy di d not i m p r ove t he de t e r m i na t i on o f m ont hl y 1 8 O s w f r om c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y i n c om pa r i s on t o t he i n s i t u S S S r e c or d ( r = 0. 31, p < 0 05, n = 271; s e e A ppe ndi x D ) A s not e d by St e phans e t a l [ 2004] t he i n s i t u S S S r e c or d a t A m d e I s l a nd ha s a s m a l l r a nge ( 35 78 0 54 ps u, 2 % ; F i gur e 2 ) c om pa r e d w i t h s a l i ni t y r a nge a t t he G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f A us t r a l i a [ M c C ul l oc h, e t al 1994] a nd t he a c t ua l s e a w a t e r 1 8 O s i gna l m a y be l e s s t ha n t he e r r or m a gni t ude i n t he pa i r

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51 a na l ys i s of c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O O ur bak e t al [ 2 006] de t e r m i ne d t he 1 8 O o f m on t hl y s e a w a t e r s a m pl e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd f or t he pe r i od 1999 t o 2003 a nd f ound t he s e a w a t e r 1 8 O va r i e d by 0. 17 V S M O W ( 2 % ) a n d S S S va r i e d by 0. 46 ps u ( 2 % ) gi vi ng a s l ope of 0 255 ps u 1 V S M O W T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on of t he 1 8 O s w de t e r m i ne d f r om c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y ( 0. 3 3 V S M O W 2 % ) i s t w i c e t he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on o f t he s e a w a t e r s a m pl e s a nd a ppl yi ng t he O ur bak e t al [ 2006] s l ope t o t he c or a l 1 8 O s w c a l c ul a t i on gi ve s a pr e di c t e d S S S w i t h a s t a nda r d d e vi a t i on m or e t ha n t w o t i m e s gr e a t e r t ha n t he obs e r ve d S S S ( 1. 31 ps u pr e di c t e d f r om c or a l ve r s us 0. 54 ps u obs e r ve d, 2 % ) T he s t a nda r d de vi a t i on o f ou r pr e di c t e d 1 8 O s w a nd S S S i s unr e a l i s t i c a nd m a y r e f l e c t i na de qua c i e s i n de t e r m i ni ng S S S f r om c or a l ge oc h e m i s t r y due t o e r r or pr opa ga t i on a nd s m a l l va r i a bi l i t y i n 1 8 O s w a nd S S S a t t hi s l oc a t i on. T he hi gh c o r r e l a t i on o f m ont h l y s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O w i t h S S T ( r = 0. 89 p < 0 05, n = 392) i ndi c a t e s t he c or a l 1 8 O s ha r e s ~ 79% of i t s va r i a nc e w i t h S S T a nd t he m a gni t ude of t he 1 8 O s w s i gna l i n t he c or a l 1 8 O i s s m a l l c om pa r e d t o t he S S T s i gna l T he i n s i t u S S S a t A m d e I s l a nd doe s not va r y gr e a t l y a nd t he m ont hl y c l i m a t ol og y s how s t he S S S l a gs S S T a nd r a i nf a l l by 1 t o 2 m ont hs ( F i gur e 2) a nd l a c ks a s t r ong a nnua l c yc l e i n S S S c om pa r e d t o S S T ( s e e A ppe ndi x D ) T he i na bi l i t y t o c a pt ur e m ont hl y S S S va r i a bi l i t y us i ng pa i r e d a na l ys i s of c o r a l ge oc he m i s t r y i n t he l a s t 28 ye a r s o f t he 20t h c e nt ur y doe s not pr e ve nt t he di s c us s i on of c ha nge s i n 1 8 O s w f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y. T he 0 6 C t r e nd f or 20 t h c e nt ur y w a s obs e r ve d i n t he m ont hl y a nd a nnua l c or a l S r / C a S S T ( F i gur e 1 3 a nd 14) C om pa r i s on of t he m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d w i t h t he s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f r om t hi s s i t e s how e d c ohe r e nc e i n t he l a t t e r ha l f o f t he 20t h c e nt ur y but t he s e r e c or ds di ve r ge ( 2. 5 t o 3

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52 C ) i n t he e a r l y 20t h c e nt ur y s ugge s t i ve of a c ha ng e i n s e a w a t e r 1 8 O ( F i gur e 13 ) T hi s obs e r va t i on i s s uppor t e d by a ne w m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d ( 92 P A A 1 f or t he pe r i od 1921 t o 1936) w hi c h c l os e l y m a t c he s t he p r e vi ous s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d 1 8 O r e c or d [ Q ui nn e t al 1998 ] ( F i gur e 13 ) T he 2 5 t o 3 C t r e nd obs e r ve d i n t he m ont hl y a nd s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O f r om 1900 t o 1945 ( F i gu r e 13, s e e A ppe ndi x D ) i s c ons i s t e nt w i t h de c r e a s i ng s e a w a t e r 1 8 O w hi c h i m pl i e s a f r e s he ni ng of s ur f a c e s e a w a t e r a t A m d e I s l a nd f or t hi s pe r i od H ow e ve r w i t hou t a r e a l i s t i c r e l a t i ons hi p t o e qua t e 1 8 O s w t o S S S i t i s not po s s i bl e t o a s s i gn a m a gni t ude t o t he f r e s he ni ng. H e ndy e t al [ 2002] pe r f or m e d pa i r e d a na l ys i s of c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O f o r t he G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f A us t r a l i a a nd obs e r ve d a de c r e a s e i n s a l i ni t y a f t e r 1870.

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53 6. C onc l us i ons T hi s s t udy a s s e s s e d t he e f f e c t s of s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on on c or a l s ke l e t a l ge oc he m i s t r y, t he r e p r oduc i bi l i t y of c o r a l s ke l e t a l ge oc he m i s t r y a t N e w C a l e doni a a nd t he r e l a t i on be t w e e n va r i a t i ons i n s ke l e t a l ge oc he m i s t r y w i t h S S T a nd S S S a t N e w C a l e doni a I n t e r m s o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on, i t w a s de t e r m i ne d t ha t m e a n c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O va l ue s do not c ha nge s i gni f i c a nt l y a s a f unc t i on o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on. S i m i l a r l y, no c ha nge i n t he m e a n f or t he i n s i t u da i l y S S T w a s obs e r ve d be t w e e n da i l y S S T f i l t e r e d ove r i nc r e a s i ng i nt e r va l s A s i m i l a r pa t t e r n w a s ob s e r ve d i n t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or d; how e ve r t he pe r c e nt r e duc t i on i n va r i a nc e w a s s m a l l e r T he us e o f t he c ont i nuous r out i ng m e t hod f or c or a l s a m pl i ng r e s ul t s i n s m oot hi ng of h i gh f r e que nc i e s ( i e l una r o r t i da l ) i f i nde e d t he s e s i gna l s a r e pr e s e nt i n t he c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y r e c or d T he i nc r e a s e d s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on pr oduc e d s m a l l e r s m oot hi ng i nt e r va l s t hus i nc r e a s i ng t he r e s ol ut i on of t he hi gh/ l ow s of t he s e a s ona l c yc l e a nd i nf l a t i ng t he a m pl i t ude of t he s e a s ona l c yc l e ; how e ve r t he i n f l a t i on i s not l i ne a r bu t de c r e a s e s w i t h i nc r e a s i ng r e s ol ut i on. I n t e r m s o f t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of c or a l s ke l e t a l ge o c he m i s t r y, m ul t i pl e t e s t s w e r e pe r f or m e d. F i r s t w he n t he g r ow t h di r e c t i on of t he c or a l l i t e s i s ~ ve r t i c a l a nd t he s a m pl i ng pa t h i s pa r a l l e l t o t he m a j or g r ow t h a xi s t he va r i a bi l i t y be t w e e n a dj a c e nt pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs on t he s a m e c or a l s l a b i s n e gl i gi bl e f or c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a E xa m i na t i o n of c o r a l l i t e s unde r m a gni f i c a t i on m a y be ne c e s s a r y t o de t e r m i ne c or a l l i t e c onf i gu r a t i on i n c or a l s pe c i e s s uc h a s P or i t e s

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54 w he r e t he c or a l l i t e s a r e r e l a t i ve l y s m a l l S e c ond, c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds f r o m pa r a l l e l c or e s f r om t he s a m e c ol ony a nd m u l t i pl e c or e s f r om t he s a m e r e e f a r e hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e a nd t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds r e m a i ne d s i gni f i c a nt a f t e r r e m ovi ng t he a nnua l c yc l e T he s e r e s ul t s de m ons t r a t e t ha t m ont hl y r e s ol ve d c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om m u l t i pl e c or e s f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony a n d f r om t he s a m e l oc a t i on a r e r e c or di ng t he s a m e S r / C a s i gna l a nd t he m ont hl y r e s ol ve d S r / C a s i gna l i s e nvi r onm e nt a l not bi ol ogi c a l T he r e pl i c a t i on of t he c o r a l S r / C a us i ng m ul t i pl e c o r e s ove r t he 20t h c e nt ur y i nc r e a s e s c onf i de nc e i n e xt e ndi ng t he r e c or d ba c k t o 1675 A D I n t e r m s o f t he f i de l i t y of t he c or a l S r / C a S S T r e l a t i on, i t i s not e d t ha t t he c o r a l S r / C a r e c or d e xhi b i t s a s t r ong c ohe r e nc e w i t h t he i n s i t u S S T a nd g r i dde d S S T da t a pr oduc t s T he c ohe r e nc e w i t h gr i dde d S S T i s hi gh dur i ng t he l a t e 20t h c e nt ur y, w hi c h c or r e s ponds t o a t i m e w i t h a h i gh num be r of obs e r va t i ons a nd t he us e of r e m ot e s e ns i ng t e c hni que s t o e s t i m a t e S S T T he m i s f i t be t w e e n t h e c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c or d a nd t he gr i dde d S S T r e c or d i s gr e a t e s t i n t he e a r l y 20t h c e nt ur y, a t i m e w he n t he num be r of obs e r va t i ons i n t he gr i dde d S S T pr oduc t i s l ow T he m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c ons t r uc t i on e xhi bi t s de c a da l s c a l e f l uc t ua t i ons t ha t e xc e e d t h os e obs e r ve d i n t he gr i dde d S S T t i m e s e r i e s w hi c h m a y r e f l e c t t r ue di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n t he S S T a t a s ha l l ow r e e f s i t e a nd t hos e a ve r a ge d ove r a 1 gr i d box o r t he y m a y r e f l e c t i na de qua c i e s i n t he m e t hodol ogy us e d t o c r e a t e t he gr i dde d S S T pr odu c t w he n f e w obs e r va t i ons a r e a va i l a bl e C a r e f ul e xa m i na t i on of t he S S T da t a pr oduc t s i s ne e de d w he n t he y a r e us e d f or c a l i br a t i ng c or a l ba s e d pa l e ot he r m om e t e r s T he c om pa r i s on of m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds w i t h a s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d f r om t hi s s i t e s how e d c ohe r e nc e i n t he l a t t e r ha l f of t he 20t h c e nt ur y but

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55 t he s e r e c or ds di ve r ge i n t he e a r l y 20 t h c e nt ur y s ugge s t i ve of a c ha nge i n s e a w a t e r 1 8 O T hi s obs e r va t i on i s s uppor t e d by a ne w m ont hl y r e s ol ve d 1 8 O r e c or d, w hi c h c l os e l y m a t c he s t he pr e vi ous s e a s ona l l y r e s ol ve d 1 8 O r e c or d. A ~ 0 6 C w a r m i ng t r e nd i s obs e r ve d i n t he c or a l S r / C a S S T r e c or d. T he t r e nd obs e r ve d i n t he c or a l 1 8 O i s c ons i s t e nt w i t h de c r e a s i ng s e a w a t e r 1 8 O f r om 190 0 t o 1945 w hi c h i m pl i e s a f r e s he ni ng of s ur f a c e s e a w a t e r a t A m d e I s l a nd how e ve r w i t hout a r e a l i s t i c r e l a t i ons hi p t o e qua t e 1 8 O s w t o S S S i t i s not pos s i bl e t o a s s i gn a m a gni t ude t o t he f r e s he ni ng.

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56 T a bl e s a nd F i gur e s

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57 T a bl e 1. S u m m a r y o f r e pl i c a t i on s t udi e s f or c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i ons C o r a l G e n u s L o c a t i o n # o f c o r e s S a m p l i n g r e s o l u t i o n 1 8 O o f f s e t ( ) 1 3 C o f f s e t ( ) S r / C a o f f s e t ( m m o l / m o l ) C o r r e l a t i o n ( r ) Y e a r s S o u r c e L o c a l r e p l i c a t i o n s t u d i e s H y d n o p h o r a m i c r o c o n o s T a r a w a A t o l l 2 m o n t h l y 0 0 6 ( 0 0 8 ) 0 3 0 ( 0 0 4 ) 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 9 C o l e a n d F a i r b a n k s 1 9 9 0 ; S h e n e t a l 1 9 9 2 P o r i t e s T a r a w a A t o l l 2 m o n t h l y E x c e l l e n t 1 8 9 3 1 9 8 9 C o l e e t a l 1 9 9 3 P a v o n a c l a v u s a n d g i g a n t e a G a l a p a g o s I s l a n d s 2 a n n u a l m o n t h l y 0 4 0 ( 0 0 7 ) s p e c i e s o f f s e t D o n o t o v e r l a p D u n b a r e t a l 1 9 9 4 P o r i t e s W h e e l e r a n d D a v i e s R e e f G B R 7 s u b m o n t h l y 0 5 C 1 9 6 4 1 9 8 5 A i l b e r t a n d M c C u l l o c h 1 9 9 7 P o r i t e s N a u r u I s l a n d 2 s u b a n n u a l l y 0 2 0 3 1 9 5 2 1 9 9 5 G u i l d e r s o n a n d S c h r a g 1 9 9 9 P o r i t e s C l i p p e r t o n A t o l l 6 s u b a n n u a l l y 0 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 4 L i n s l e y e t a l 1 9 9 9 P o r i t e s M a i a n a A t o l l 4 b i m o n t h l y 0 7 8 1 8 4 0 1 9 9 4 U r b a n e t a l 2 0 0 0 D i p l o r i a B e r m u d a 2 s u b a n n u a l l y 0 6 0 2 2 1 9 7 1 1 9 8 4 C a r d i n a l e t a l 2 0 0 1 P o r i t e s P a l m y r a > 1 2 m o n t h l y < 0 0 5 0 6 7 0 8 7 p a s t 1 1 0 0 C o b b e t a l 2 0 0 3 b P o r i t e s R e d S e a 1 1 b i m o n t h l y < 1 2 8 1 9 7 4 1 9 9 8 F e l i s e t a l 2 0 0 3 D i p l o a s t r e a F i j i 2 m o n t h l y 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 6 B a g n a t o e t a l 2 0 0 4 P o r i t e s N e w C a l e d o n i a 4 m o n t h l y 0 1 6 ( 0 0 8 ) 1 1 4 ( 0 0 6 ) 0 0 1 ( 0 0 1 8 ) > 0 7 0 1 8 O > 0 7 9 S r / C a 1 9 6 7 1 9 9 2 S t e p h a n s 2 0 0 3 ; S t e p h a n s e t a l 2 0 0 4 P o r i t e s F i j i 2 m o n t h l y a n n u a l S r / C a 0 3 7 ( 0 0 2 8 ) 0 1 4 ( 0 1 5 % ) 0 7 7 1 8 O 0 4 7 S r / C a 1 7 8 0 1 9 9 7 L i n s l e y e t a l 2 0 0 6 P o r i t e s R a r o t o n g a 3 m o n t h l y < 0 1 0 ( 0 0 4 ) < 0 1 0 ( 0 1 5 % ) > 0 7 1 1 8 O > 0 0 8 S r / C a 1 7 2 6 1 9 9 7 L i n s l e y e t a l 2 0 0 6 M o n t a s t r e a f a v e o l a t a L o o e K e y F l o r i d a 2 m o n t h l y 0 0 2 ( 0 0 2 ) 0 0 4 ( 0 0 6 ) 0 0 3 7 ( 0 0 0 9 ) 0 5 7 1 8 O 0 5 3 S r / C a 1 9 6 1 2 0 0 1 S m i t h e t a l 2 0 0 6

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58 T a bl e 1. ( C ont i nue d) C o r a l G e n u s L o c a t i o n # o f c o r e s S a m p l i n g r e s o l u t i o n 1 8 O o f f s e t ( ) 1 3 C o f f s e t ( ) S r / C a o f f s e t ( m m o l / m o l ) C o r r e l a t i o n ( r ) Y e a r s S o u r c e R e g i o n a l r e p l i c a t i o n s t u d i e s P o r i t e s A r a b i a n S e a 2 m o n t h l y 0 2 5 1 3 1 9 7 3 1 9 9 1 T u d h o p e e t a l 1 9 9 6 P o r i t e s G B R I n d i a n O c e a n I n d o n e s i a n 3 s u b m o n t h l y 0 3 C 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 4 G a g a n e t a l 1 9 9 8 P o r i t e s M a i a n a A t o l l T a r a w a A r a n u k a 4 b i m o n t h l y > 0 6 6 1 9 5 0 1 9 8 9 U r b a n e t a l 2 0 0 0 P o r i t e s G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f A u s t r a l i a 8 p e n t a n n u a l 0 6 C 1 5 6 8 1 9 8 3 H e n d y e t a l 2 0 0 2 A na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on e s t i m a t e s r e por t e d i n pa r e nt he s i s S r / C a o f f s e t s a r e r e po r t e d a s m m ol / m ol unl e s s ot he r w i s e not e d.

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59 T a bl e 2. S u m m a r y o f c or a l ba s e d pa l e oc l i m a t ol ogi c a l s t udi e s a t A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a S t u d y G e oc h e m i s t r y R e s ol u t i on ( s am p l e s / c m ) D at e s C or e Q ui nn e t al 1996 1 8 O 1 3 C 12 1951 1992 92 P A A 1 Q ui nn e t al 1998 1 8 O 1 3 C 4 1675 1992* 92 P A A 1 C r ow l e y e t al 1997 1 8 O 4 1675 1992* 92 P A A 1 C r ow l e y e t al 1999 1 8 O 12 1898 1909* 92 P A A 1 C or r g e e t al 2001 S r / C a U / C a 12 1701 1761 92 P A A 1 Q ui nn and Sam ps on, 2002 S r / C a M g/ C a U / C a B a / C a 12 1968 1992 92 P A A 1 St e phan s 2003 and St e phans e t al 2004 1 8 O 1 3 C S r / C a 1 8 O 1 3 C S r / C a 1 8 O 1 3 C S r / C a 16 16 16 1966 1999* 1954 1999* 1965 1999* 92 P A C 1 92 P A D 1 99 P A A T hi s s t udy S r / C a S r / C a S r / C a S r / C a 1 8 O 1 3 C 15 12 16 16 15 1900 1992 1900 1992 1950 1966 1937 1954 1920 1951 92 P A A 1 92 P A A 2 92 P A C 1 92 P A D 1 92 P A A 1 D a t e s a dj us t e d t o upda t e d a ge m ode l not t he o r i gi na l da t e s r e por t e d by a ut hor s

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60 T a bl e 3. M ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons c om pa r e d be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs F or t n i gh t l y S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) M on t h l y S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) F or t n i gh t l y 1 8 O ( ) M on t h l y 1 8 O ( ) S e as on al l y 1 8 O ( ) F or t n i gh t l y 1 3 C ( ) M on t h l y 1 3 C ( ) S e as on al l y 1 3 C ( ) M e an 9. 157 9. 165 4. 36 4. 44 4. 53 1. 08 1. 15 1. 09 M e d i an 9. 149 9. 164 4. 39 4. 48 4. 56 1. 10 1. 14 1. 10 S t an d ar d d e vi at i on 0. 101 0. 094 0. 27 0. 26 0. 22 0. 27 0. 26 0. 19 V ar i an c e 0. 010 0. 009 0. 07 0. 07 0. 05 0. 07 0. 07 0. 04 M axi m u m 9. 352 9. 343 3. 83 3. 86 4. 21 0. 48 0. 58 0. 79 M i n i m u m 8. 913 8. 940 4. 94 4. 92 4. 87 1. 67 1. 66 1. 38 # of o b s e r vat i on s 149 149 121 65 16 121 65 16 D e gr e e s of f r e e d om 33 45 19 20 16 62 44 16 S E of m e an 0. 018 0. 014 0. 06 0. 06 0. 06 0. 03 0. 04 0. 05 A ve r age am p l i t u d e 0. 331 0. 285 0. 91 0. 79 0. 54 0. 38 0. 26 0. 18 % S D w r t f or t n i gh t l y 6. 9% 4. 0% 15. 7% 5. 0% 26. 9% S D w r t f or t n i gh t l y ( C ) 0. 13 0. 62 1. 16 C a l c ul a t i o ns w e r e pe r f or m e d ove r a c om m on i nt e r va l f or a l l ge oc he m i s t r y ( 0 t o 10. 5 c m S r / C a 0 t o 4 6 c m f or i s ot ope s ) S t a nda r d e r r or ( S E ) o f t he m e a n c a l c ul a t e d w i t h e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t % r e du c t i on i n s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( S D ) w i t h r e s pe c t t o ( w r t ) e i t he r da i l y or f o r t ni ght l y r e s ol ut i on.

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61 T a bl e 4. F i l t e r e d da i l y i n s i t u S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s ( C ) D ai l y We e k l y F or t n i gh t l y M on t h l y S e as on al l y M e an 23. 4 23. 3 23. 4 23. 4 23. 3 M e d i an 23. 2 23. 3 23. 3 23. 3 23. 0 S t an d ar d d e vi at i on 2. 0 1. 9 1. 9 1. 8 1. 7 V ar i an c e 3. 8 3. 6 3. 5 3. 4 2. 9 M axi m u m 29. 0 28. 6 28. 2 27. 6 26. 5 M i n i m u m 18. 0 18. 2 18. 3 19. 3 20. 3 # of o b s e r vat i on s 10148 1409 697 317 100 D e gr e e s of f r e e d om 110 106 101 101 90 S E of m e an 0. 19 0. 18 0. 19 0. 18 0. 18 A ve r age am p l i t u d e 11. 0 10. 4 9 9 8. 2 6. 2 % S D w r t d ai l y 3. 1% 4. 3% 5. 8% 12. 7% % S D w r t f or t n i gh t l y 1. 7% 8. 9% P r e c i s i on 0. 2 0. 08 0. 05 0. 04 0. 02 D a i l y S S T ( C ) m e a s ur e m e nt s ( 0. 2 C ) m a de by I R D a t A m d e I s l a nd a t 7 A M S t a nda r d e r r o r ( S E ) of t he m e a n c a l c ul a t e d w i t h e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t % r e duc t i on i n s t a nda r d de vi a t i on ( S D ) w i t h r e s pe c t t o ( w r t ) e i t he r da i l y or f or t ni ght l y r e s ol ut i on.

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62 T a bl e 5. C or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) r e pl i c a t i on be t w e e n p a r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A C 1 A 1 P A C 1 2 P A C 1 S t ac k P ar al l e l p at h M e an 9. 185 9. 178 9. 182 9. 172 M e d i an 9. 173 9. 167 9. 168 9. 157 S t an d ar d d e vi at i on 0. 099 0. 104 0. 101 0. 115 V ar i an c e 0. 010 0. 011 0. 010 0. 013 M axi m u m 9. 413 9. 436 9. 410 9. 444 M i n i m u m 8. 994 8. 982 9. 000 8. 929 # of o b s e r vat i on s 249 249 249 249 D e gr e e s of f r e e d om 69 67 69 69 S E of m e an 0. 012 0. 013 0. 012 0. 014 A vg a b s 0. 022 0 018 ( 1 ) 0. 031 0 026 ( 1 ) C or r e l at i on 0. 96 0. 93 1 P A C 1 a nd 2 P A C 2 a r e r e pl i c a t e s f r om s pl i t s o f c or a l pow de r s a m pl e s w hi c h w e r e s a m pl e d a l ong a pa t h pa r a l l e l t o St e p hans e t al [ 20 04] on t he c or a l s e c t i on 92 P A C 1 A ( F i gur e 6 ) T he de t e r m i na t i ons f r om e a c h pa t h w e r e c onve r t e d f r om de pt h s pa c e t o t i m e s pa c e f or c om pa r i s on. S t a c k i s t he a ve r a ge of e a c h pa i r o f de t e r m i na t i ons f r om 1 P A C 1 a nd 2 P A C 1. S t a nda r d e r r o r ( S E ) of t he m e a n w a s c a l c ul a t e d w i t h e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t T he a ve r a ge of t he a bs ol ut e di f f e r e nc e s ( a vg a b s ) i s t he a ve r a ge of t he a bs ol ut e di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n e a c h p a i r of m ont hl y de t e r m i na t i ons C or r e l a t i ons a r e s i gni f i c a nt ( p < 0 05, n = 249) T a bl e 6. C or a l S r / C a ( m m ol / m ol ) r e pl i c a t i on be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 A a nd 92 P A A 1 B 92 P A A 1 A or i gi n al 92 P A A 1 A op p os i n g 92 P A A 1 B or i gi n al 92 P A A 1 B op p os i n g M e an 9. 194 9. 214 9. 113 9. 188 M e d i an 9. 179 9. 222 9. 108 9. 192 S t an d ar d d e vi at i on 0. 095 0. 089 0. 104 0. 104 V ar i an c e 0. 010 0. 007 0. 011 0. 011 M axi m u m 9. 386 9. 399 9. 324 9. 393 M i n i m u m 9. 000 9. 017 8. 838 8 959 # of o b s e r vat i on s 134 134 94 94 D e gr e e s of f r e e d om 38 38 30 28 S E of m e an 0. 015 0. 014 0. 019 0. 020 A vg a b s 0. 032 0. 023 ( 1 ) 0. 079 0 047 ( 1 ) C or r e l at i on 0. 93 0. 87 T he de t e r m i na t i ons f r om e a c h pa t h w e r e c onve r t e d f r om de pt h s pa c e t o t i m e s pa c e f or c om pa r i s on. S t a nda r d e r r or ( S E ) o f t he m e a n c a l c ul a t e d w i t h e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t T he a ve r a g e of t he a bs ol ut e di f f e r e nc e s ( a vg a b s ) i s t he a ve r a ge of t he di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n e a c h pa i r o f m o nt hl y de t e r m i na t i ons C or r e l a t i ons a r e s i gni f i c a nt ( p < 0. 05)

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63 Table 7. Monthly coral Sr/Ca (mmol/mol) determinations from five coral records for the perio d 1967 to 1992. 99 PAA 92 PAA1 92 PAA2 Stack PAA 92 PAC1 92 PAD1 Stack master IRD SST HadISST AI Adj. HadISST Mean 9.164 9.181 9.174 9.173 9.181 9.179 9.178 23.57 24.68 23.52 Median 9.158 9.176 9.173 9.170 9.167 9.167 9.170 23.63 24.70 23.53 Standard d eviation 0.097 0.098 0.109 0.099 0.113 0.107 0.104 1.79 1.69 1.81 Variance 0.009 0.010 0.012 0.010 0.013 0.012 0.011 3.22 2.84 3.28 Maximum 9.345 9.388 9.419 9.374 9.448 9.452 9.397 27.60 27.81 26.88 Minimum 8.918 8.955 8.900 8.927 8.935 8.912 8.965 19. 70 21.70 20.32 # of observations 304 304 304 304 304 304 304 304 304 304 DOF 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 SE of mean 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.20 0.18 0.20 Calculations were performed for the interval common for all records (1967 to 1992). Stack PAA is the average Sr/Ca of the three records (99 PAA, 92 PAA1, and 92 PAA2) from the same colony (PAA) and stack master is the average Sr/Ca of the three coral colonies (PAA, 92 PAC1, and 92 PAD1). IRD SST ( C) is the in situ SST recorded o ffshore from Amde Island. HadISST_AI ( C) is the 1 grid box extracted from HadISST1.1 database [ Rayner et al., 2003 ] centered on Amde Island (22.5 S, 166.5 E). Adj. HadISST ( C) is HadISST_AI transformed to match the in situ IRD SST record (adj. Had ISST = HadISST_AI*1.074 2.989). Standard error (SE) of the mean calculated with effective degrees of freedom (DOF) determined by Runs test.

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64 Table 8. Monthly coral Sr/Ca (mmol/mol) determinations from five coral records for the 20th century. 99 P AA 92 PAA1 92 PAA2 Stack PAA 92 PAC1 92 PAD1 Stack master IRD SST HadISST AI Adj. HadISST Mean 9.168 9.179 9.196 9.185 9.179 9.186 9.187 23.51 24.50 23.32 Median 9.169 9.176 9.197 9.186 9.168 9.175 9.184 23.57 24.52 23.35 Standard deviation 0.097 0.101 0.102 0.099 0.110 0.109 0.101 1.81 1.67 1.80 Variance 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.010 3.29 2.80 3.23 Maximum 9.361 9.400 9.430 9.407 9.448 9.452 9.407 27.60 28.04 27.13 Minimum 8.914 8.912 8.900 8.914 8.935 8.912 8.914 19.28 21.41 20.01 # of observations 414 1112 1098 1198 513 663 1198 394 1200 1200 DOF 92 284 288 309 135 174 309 106 307 307 SE of mean 0.010 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.18 0.10 0.10 Calculations were performed for the period 1900 to 2000 Monthly coral Sr/Ca reco rds span 1965 to 2000 for 99 PAA; 1900 to 1992 for 92 PAA1 and 92 PAA2; 1937 to 1992 for 92 PAD1; and 1950 to 1992 for 92 PAC1. Stack PAA is the average of the three records (99 PAA, 92 PAA1, and 92 PAA2) from the same colony (PAA) and stack master is the average Sr/Ca of the three coral colonies (PAA, 92 PAC1, and 92 PAD1). IRD SST ( C) is the in situ SST recorded offshore from Amde Island. HadISST_AI ( C) is the 1 grid box extracted from HadISST1.1 database [ Rayner et al., 2003 ] centered on Amde I sland (22.5 S, 166.5 E). Adj. HadISST ( C) is HadISST_AI transformed to match the in situ IRD SST record (adj. HadISST = HadISST_AI*1.074 2.989). Standard error (SE) of the mean calculated with effective degrees of freedom (DOF) determined by Runs test

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65 Table 9. Correlation between monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and SST for the period 1967 to 1992. 99 PAA 92 PAA1 92 PAA2 Stack PAA 92 PAC1 92 PAD1 Stack master IRD SST HadISSTAI 99 PAA 1.00 0.93 0.93 0.98 0.89 0.91 0.95 0.91 0.91 92 PAA1 0.65 1 .00 0.92 0.97 0.91 0.92 0.96 0.91 0.91 92 PAA2 0.65 0.58 1.00 0.98 0.91 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.92 Stack PAA 0.88 0.86 0.87 1.00 0.93 0.94 0.98 0.94 0.94 92 PAD1 0.48 0.57 0.55 0.62 0.92 1.00 0.98 0.91 0.93 92 PAC1 0.37 0.52 0.48 0.53 1.00 0.54 0.97 0.93 0.92 Stack master 0.67 0.76 0.74 0.83 0.83 0.86 1.00 0.95 0.95 IRD SST 0.46 0.47 0.44 0.53 0.49 0.41 0.56 1.00 0.96 HadISST_AI 0.45 0.48 0.45 0.53 0.41 0.45 0.55 0.64 1.00 Stack PAA is the average of the three records (99 PAA, 92 PAA1, and 92 PAA2) from the same colony (PAA) and stack master is the average Sr/Ca of the three coral colonies (PAA, 92 PAC1, and 92 PAD1). IRD SST ( C) is the in situ SST recorded offshore from Amde Island. HadISST_AI ( C) is the 1 grid box extracte d from HadISST1.1 database [ Rayner et al., 2003 ] centered on Amde Island (22.5 S, 166.5 E). Correlations between monthly anomalies appear in italic. Anomalies are calculated as difference between each monthly measurement and the average Sr/Ca value for each month for the interval 1967 to 1992. All correlations are significant ( p < 0.05, n = 304 ).

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66 Table 10. Correlation between monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and SST for the 20th century 99 PAA 92 PAA1 92 PAA2 Stack PAA 92 PAC1 92 PAD1 Stack mast er IRD SST HadISST_AI 99 PAA 1.00 0.93 0.93 0.98 0.90 0.91 0.96 0.91 0.90 92 PAA1 0.65 1.00 0.91 0.97 0.90 0.91 0.96 0.91 0.93 92 PAA2 0.64 0.46 1.00 0.98 0.91 0.91 0.96 0.91 0.92 Stack PAA 0.92 0.84 0.86 1.00 0.93 0.94 0.99 0.92 0.94 92 PAD1 0.49 0.47 0.52 0.58 0.92 1.00 0.98 0.91 0.94 92 PAC1 0.39 0.48 0.53 0.57 1.00 0.51 0.98 0.93 0.93 Stack master 0.80 0.76 0.79 0.92 0.82 0.86 1.00 0.93 0.95 IRD SST 0.54 0.46 0.44 0.58 0.49 0.41 0.61 1.00 0.94 HadISSTAI 0.48 0.44 0.45 0.52 0.41 0.49 0.53 0.60 1.00 Stack PAA is the average of the three records (99 PAA, 92 PAA1, and 92 PAA2) from the same colony (PAA) and stack master is the average Sr/Ca of the three coral colonies (PAA, 92 PAC1, and 92 PAD1). IRD SST ( C) is the in situ SST recorded offshore from Amde Island. HadISST_AI ( C) is the 1 grid box extracted from HadISST1.1 database [ Rayner et al., 2003 ] centered on Amde Island (22.5 S, 166.5 E). Correlations between anomalies appear in italic. Anomalies are calcu lated as difference between each monthly measurement and the average Sr/Ca value for each month for the interval 1967 to 1992. The number of observations for each core is reported in Table 8. Monthly coral Sr/Ca records span 1965 to 1999 for 99 PAA; 1900 to 1992 for 92 PAA1 and 92 PAA2; 1937 to 1992 for 92 PAD1; and 1950 to 1992 for 92 PAC1. All correlations are significant ( p < 0.05).

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67 T a bl e 11. A ve r a ge a bs ol ut e o f f s e t ( a vg a b s ) be t w e e n m ont hl y c o r a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons ( m m ol / m ol ) f o r t he 20t h c e nt u r y 99 P A A 92 P A A 1 92 P A A 2 92 P A D 1 92 P A C 1 99 P A A 0. 033 0. 034 0. 037 0. 043 92 P A A 1 0. 038 0. 037 0. 038 92 P A A 2 0. 036 0. 035 92 P A D 1 0. 034 O ve r al l 0. 036 T he a ve r a ge of t he a bs ol ut e of f s e t ( a vg a b s ) i s t he a v e r a ge of t he di f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n e a c h pa i r of m ont hl y de t e r m i na t i ons T he c or e s 99 P A A 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2 a r e f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd t he c or e s 92 P A D 1 a nd 92 P A C 1 a r e f r o m c or a l c ol oni e s i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y t o P A A T a bl e 12. C or r e l a t i on be t w e e n a nnua l a ve r a ge c o r a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons a nd S S T f o r t he 20t h c e nt ur y. 99 P A A 92 P A A 1 92 P A A 2 S t ac k P A A 92 P A C 1 92 P A D 1 S t ac k m as t e r I R D S S T 99 P A A 1. 00 92 P A A 1 0. 61 1. 00 92 P A A 2 0. 74 0. 50 1. 00 S t ac k P A A 0. 92 0. 81 0. 89 1. 00 92 P A C 1 0. 33 0. 58 0. 54 0. 6 2 1. 00 92 P A D 1 0. 50 0. 52 0. 61 0. 67 0. 62 1. 00 S t ac k m as t e r 0. 76 0. 80 0. 84 0. 95 0. 85 0. 89 1. 00 I R D S S T 0. 52 0. 30 0. 20 0. 50 0. 43 0. 22 0. 51 1. 00 A d j H ad I S S T _A I 0. 62 0. 59 0. 56 0. 68 0. 52 0. 56 0. 69 0. 70 # of o b s e r vat i on s 34 93 91 100 42 55 100 32 A nnua l a ve r a ge s w e r e c a l c ul a t e d f or a c l i m a t ol ogi c a l ye a r ( A pr i l t o M a r c h) S t a c k P A A i s t he a ve r a ge of t he t hr e e r e c or ds ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 1, a nd 92 P A A 2) f r om t he s a m e c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd s t a c k m a s t e r i s t he a ve r a ge S r / C a of t he t hr e e c or a l c ol oni e s ( P A A 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) I R D S S T ( C ) i s t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or de d of f s hor e f r om A m d e I s l a nd. H a dI S S T _A I ( C ) i s t he 1 gr i d box e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1. 1 da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd ( 22. 5 S 166 5 E ) T he num be r of o bs e r va t i ons f or e a c h s e r i e s i s l i s t e d; how e ve r e a c h s e r i e s s pa ns a di f f e r e nt pe r i od of t i m e : 1965 t o 1999 f or 99 P A A ; 1900 t o 1992 f or 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2; 1950 t o 1992 f or 92 P A C 1; a nd 1937 t o 1992 f o r 92 P A D 1. C or r e l a t i ons a r e s i gni f i c a nt ( p < 0 05) e x c e pt c or r e l a t i ons i n i t a l i c a r e not s i gni f i c a nt ( nu m be r of obs e r va t i ons c om m on t o bot h s e r i e s < 26)

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68 T a bl e 13. C or a l S r / C a t o S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i ons f o r N e w C a l e doni a C ove r age R S l op e E r r or ( 2 ) I n t e r c e p t E r r or ( 2 ) E r r or ( C ) x = S S T y = S r / C a M L E 1967 1999 0. 93 0. 0540 0. 001 10. 449 0. 013 1. 35 R M A 1967 1999 0. 93 0. 0560 0. 002 10. 494 1. 30 O L S 1967 1999 0. 93 0. 0522 0. 002 10. 403 0. 048 1. 37 St e phans e t al 2004 1967 1992 0. 93 0. 0504 0. 002 10. 331 0. 055 0. 67 Q ui nn and Sam ps on 2002 O L S 1967 1992 0. 91 0. 052 10. 073 0. 86 Q ui nn and Sam ps on, 2002 R M A 1967 1992 0. 91 0. 057 10. 12 0. 78 C or r g e 2006 1993 1999 0. 96 0. 0576 10. 407 M ont aggi oni e t al 2006 1988 1996 0. 92 0. 081 11. 08 1. 3 O ur bak e t al 2006 I C P A E S 1993 2002 0. 80 0. 054 0. 014 10. 248 0. 360 O ur bak e t al 2006 I C P M S 1993 2002 0. 74 0. 062 0. 014 10. 451 0. 346 C or r g e e t al 2006 1981 1990 0. 79 0. 0657 10. 73 1. 3 x = S r / C a, y = S S T M L E 1967 1999 0. 93 18. 514 0. 187 193. 45 1. 719 1. 35 R M A 1967 1999 0. 93 17. 844 0. 651 187. 25 1. 30 O L S 1967 1999 0. 93 16. 619 0. 653 176. 01 5. 991 1. 28 B e c k e t al 1992 1980 1986 16. 013 171. 6 A l l c or a l s us e d i n t he i nve s t i ga t i ons w e r e c ol l e c t e d i n t he vi c i ni t y o f A m d e I s l a nd e xc e pt C or r ge e t al [ 2006] a nd O ur bak e t a l [ 2006] us e d c or a l s c ol l e c t e d f r om U i t o 36 km no r t h of A m d e I s l a nd. A l l s t udi e s w e r e s a m pl e d w i t h m ont hl y s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on e xc e pt O ur bak e t al [ 2006] ( 20 s a m pl e s / ye a r ) M on t aggi oni e t al [ 2006] us e d m a xi m um a nd m i ni m um va l ue s onl y f o r O L S r e gr e s s i on. T he m ul t i pl e c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt ( R ) i s t he s qua r e r oot o f t he goodne s s of f i t s t a t i s t i c a nd i s a l ge br a i c a l l y e qu i va l e nt t o c or r e l a t i on c oe f f i c i e nt ( r ) F or t hi s s t udy, t he r e gr e s s i on e r r or w a s de t e r m i ne d us i ng e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t C ol or gr oups r e f l e c t i nve s t i ga t i ons pe r f o r m e d i n t he s a m e l a bor a t or y. U ni ve r s i t y of S out h F l or i da ( bl ue ) us e s I C P O E S f ol l ow i ng Sc hr ag [ 1999 ] m e t hodol ogy us i ng a n i n t e r na l l a bor a t or y s t a nda r d S r / C a ( I G S P L ) U ni ve r s i t y of C a l i f or ni a a t S a nt a C r uz ( gr e e n) us e s S F I C P M S I R D c e nt e r i n B ond y, F r a nc e ( r e d) f ol l ow i ng L e C or ne c and C or r ge [ 1997] m e t hodol ogy us i ng a n i nt e r na l l a bor a t or y s t a nda r d S r / C a ( N C 20) w i t h I C P M S B e c k e t al [ 1992 ] us e d T I M S

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69 T a bl e 14. C a l i br a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on s t a t i s t i c s f or c or a l S r / C a S S T de t e r m i ne d by M L E 1967 2000 1900 2000 1950 2000 1900 1 950 C or r e l at i on 0. 93 0. 95 0. 94 0. 96 C or r e l at i on a n om al i e s 0. 54 0. 54 0. 57 0. 44 S i gn t e s t 93% 94% 93% 95% S i gn t e s t a n om al i e s 72% 71% 72% 71% R e d u c t i on of e r r or 0. 85 0. 67 0. 81 0. 86 P r od u c t m e an 16. 25 32. 88 21. 58 27. 54 P r od u c t m e an s an om al i e s 7. 1 7 12. 53 8. 70 9. 47 # of o b s e r vat i on s 392 1198 598 600 D O F 105 307 157 162 R e gr e s s i on e r r or ( C ) 1. 34 V e r i f i c at i on e r r or ( C ) 1. 38 1. 19 1. 28 1. 07 A vg a b s ( C ) 0. 42 0. 46 0. 50 0. 42 T he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f or c or a l S r / C a t o i n s i t u S S T w a s de t e r m i ne d us i ng M L E r e gr e s s i on [ Y or k and E v e ns e n 2004 ] us i ng e r r or s i n bot h S r / C a a nd S S T f or t he pe r i o d 1967 t o 1999 ( R = 0 93. p < 0. 05 n = 392) T he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on f or c o r a l S r / C a t o S S T w a s ve r i f i e d a ga i ns t t he i nde pe nde nt da t a s e t H a dI S S T _A I ( C ) w hi c h i s t he 1 g r i d box e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1. 1 da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd ( 22. 5 S 166. 5 E ) V e r i f i c a t i on s t a t i s t i c s f r om de n dr oc l i m a t ol ogy w e r e u t i l i z e d t o ve r i f y t he t r a ns f e r f unc t i on w hi c h i nc l ude t he s i gn t e s t r e duc t i on of e r r or a nd pr oduc t m e a n t e s t [ F r i t t s 1976; F r i t t s e t al 1979] S i gn t e s t a nd pr oduc t m e a n t e s t a r e s i gni f i c a nt a t t he 99% c onf i de nc e l e ve l R e gr e s s i on e r r o r a nd ve r i f i c a t i on e r r or w a s de t e r m i ne d us i ng e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom ( dof ) de t e r m i ne d by R uns t e s t T he a ve r a ge of t he a bs ol ut e di f f e r e nc e s ( a vg a b s ) i s t he a ve r a ge of t he a bs ol ut e d i f f e r e nc e s be t w e e n e a c h pa i r of m ont hl y de t e r m i na t i ons

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70 F i gur e 1. M a p o f t he S out hw e s t P a c i f i c N e w C a l e doni a a nd A m d e I s l a nd. ( a ) N e w C a l e doni a i s l oc a t e d i n t he s out hw e s t t r opi c a l P a c i f i c O c e a n M a p s how s a nnua l a ve r a ge S S T ( C ) c ont our s [ L e v i t us and B oy e r 1994] ( b) A m d e I s l a nd ( 22 28 5 S 166 28 0 E ) i s l oc a t e d of f t he s out hw e s t c oa s t of N e w C a l e doni a 20 km s out h of N oum a be hi nd t he ba r r i e r r e e f a nd w i t hi n t he B oul a r i P a s s T he r e e f s of f s hor e of A m d e I s l a nd a r e w e l l ba t he d by ope n oc e a n w a t e r s a nd t he r e e f s do not a ppe a r t o be s ub j e c t e d t o f r e s hw a t e r i nput f r o m t he m a i nl a nd [ Q ui nn e t al 1996 ] T hi s s t udy s a m pl e d P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l c ol oni e s l oc a t e d w i t hi n B oul a r i P a s s ( on i ns e t p hot o) B

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71 F i gur e 2. M ont hl y c l i m a t ol ogy o f A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a ( a ) M e a n m ont hl y S S S f o r 1974 t o 1999 ( b ) M e a n m ont hl y r a i nf a l l f or 1974 t o 1999 f or N oum a N e w C a l e doni a a r c hi ve d by t he G l oba l H i s t or i c a l C l i m a t e N e t w or k [ P e t e r s on and V os e 19 97] T he s um m e r r a i nf a l l pe a ks c oi nc i d e w i t h m i ni m u m S S S ( c ) M e a n m ont hl y S S T f or 1967 t o 1999 I R D m e a s ur e d S S T a nd S S S da i l y a t A m d e I s l a nd s i nc e 1967 [ D e l c r oi x and L e nor m and 1997] a nd m ont h l y a ve r a ge s of S S T a nd S S S w e r e c a l c ul a t e d f r om da i l y m e a s ur e m e nt s N e w C a l e doni a e xpe r i e nc e s w a r m a nd w e t s um m e r s w he n t he S P C Z i s i n i t s s out he r nm os t l oc a t i on ( F i gur e 1 ) W he n t he S P C Z m ove s nor t h i n t he w i nt e r t e m pe r a t ur e dr ops a nd r a i nf a l l de c r e a s e s [ M or l i e r e and R e be r t 1986]

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72 F i gur e 3. F i l t e r e d da i l y S S T m e a s ur e m e nt s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a ( a ) C om pa r i s on of da i l y i n s i t u S S T i n s i t u m e a s ur e m e nt s ( 0. 2 C ) f i l t e r e d t o va r i ous r e s ol ut i ons us i ng a f i ni t e i m pul s e r e s pons e ( F I R ) f i l t e r ( b ) A m pl i t ude f or e a c h r e s ol ut i o n c a l c ul a t e d by s ubt r a c t i ng t he m i n i m um S S T f r om t he m a xi m um S S T T he a m pl i t u de a nd s t a nda r d de vi a t i on de c r e a s e w i t h de c e a s i ng r e s ol ut i on. T he m e a ns a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 4 )

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A

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74 F i gur e 4. C o r a l c or e s s a m pl e d i n t hi s s t udy. ( a ) X r a di ogr a ph pos i t i ve i m a ge s of f i ve P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l c or e s c ol l e c t e d of f s hor e of A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T he l a be l s f or e a c h c or e a ppe a r a c r os s t he t op, t he younge s t ba nd ( 1999 ) oc c ur s on t he t op of 99 P A A a nd da t e s a ppe a r i n w hi t e S a m pl i ng pa t hs a r e a ppr ox i m a t e l y pa r a l l e l t o t he c or a l s ve r t i c a l c e nt r a l gr ow t h a xi s S a m pl i ng pa t h s us e d i n t hi s s t udy a nd p r e vi ous s t udi e s a r e l a be l e d di f f e r e nt c ol o r s S pl i c e s be t w e e n c or a l d r i l l pa t hs a r e m a r ke d w i t h bl a c k l i ne s

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75 F i gur e 4. c ont i nue d. ( b ) T hi n s e c t i on phot om i c r o gr a phs vi e w e d unde r c r os s pol a r i z e d l i ght pl a ne ( l e f t ) a nd t r a ns m i t t e d l i ght ( r i ght ; f i e l d of vi e w e qua l s 2. 6 m m i n e a c h) ( c ) S E M i m a ge s w e r e m a gni f i e d by 45 ( l e f t ) a nd 200 ( r i ght ) T hi n s e c t i ons a nd S E M i m a ge s w e r e e xa m i ne d f r om t he t op of t he c or e 92 P A A 1 ( F i gur e 4a ) f or t he p r e s e nc e of s e c onda r y m i ne r a l s ; none w e r e obs e r ve d. B C

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76 F i gur e 5. C ont i nuous r out i ng m e t hod us e d i n c or a l s a m pl i ng. ( a ) T he dr i l l pa t h w a s c ont i nuous l y r ou t e d us i ng c om put e r a i de d t r i a xi a l s a m pl e r pr ogr a m m e d t o dr i l l a 0 7 m m s qua r e f or e a c h s a m pl e us i ng a 1. 4 m m d r i l l b i t ( da s he d c i r c l e ) ( b) T he s qua r e pa t t e r n w a s r e pe a t e d f i f t e e n t i m e s ove r 1 c m D i vot s w e r e dr i l l e d a f t e r t he f i f t e e n t h s qua r e a nd s a m pl e s c or r e s pondi ng t o f i f t e e nt h s a m pl e a r e l a be l e d i n gr e e n. ( C ) P os i t i ve X r a di ogr a ph of 92 P A A 1 C a s a n e xa m pl e of t he dr i l l pa t h a nd t he c o r r e s pondi ng a nnua l de ns i t y ba nds w i t h t he S r / C a va r i a t i ons s upe r i m pos e d ( S r / C a a xi s r e ve r s e d) T he c o r a l w a s s a m pl e d e ve r y 0 70 m m f or a ppr oxi m a t e l y m ont hl y s a m pl i ng a l ong m a xi m um g r ow t h a xi s D a r ke r ba nds c or r e s pond t o i nc r e a s i ng S r / C a a nd l i ght e r ba n ds t o de c r e a s i ng S r / C a

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77 F i gur e 6. P a r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on 92 P A C 1 A ( a ) T he X r a di ogr a ph of 92 P A C 1 A w i t h l i ne s m a r ki ng t he pa t hs s a m pl e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd t hi s s t udy. T he pa t hs a r e ~ 0. 5 c m a pa r t a nd bot h w e r e s a m pl e d a t 16 s a m pl e s / c m ( b ) C or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r o m dupl i c a t e S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons o f c or a l pow de r ( 1 P A C 1 a nd 2 P A C 1) a nd t he pa r a l l e l pa t h s a m pl e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004] T he m e a n a nd va r i a nc e of t he r e pl i c a t e s a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 5) C or r e l a t i on i s hi g h be t w e e n r e pl i c a t e s a nd pa r a l l e l pa t hs ( r = 0. 96 0 93, r e s pe c t i ve l y, p < 0 05, n = 249 ) E r r or ba r s r e pr e s e nt a na l yt i c a l p r e c i s i on ( 0. 009 m m ol / m ol 1 St e phans e t al [ 2004] ; 0. 016 m m ol / m ol 1 1 P A C 1 a nd 2 P A C 1)

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78 F i gur e 7. P a r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on oppos i ng s i de s of 9 2 P A A 1 A a nd 92 P A A 1 B ( a ) M ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f r om t he bot t o m s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 A f r om pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of t he c or a l s l a b w hi c h i s ~ 0. 5 c m t hi c k. ( b) X r a di ogr a ph of t he bot t o m s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 A ( r i ght ) a nd t op s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 B ( l e f t ) w i t h pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs on e a c h s i de of t he c or a l s l a b m a r ke d. ( c ) M ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons f r om t he t op s e c t i on of 92 P A A 1 B f r om pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng pa t hs on oppos i ng s i de s of t he c o r a l s l a b. E r r o r ba r s r e pr e s e nt a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 0. 010 m m ol / m ol 1 ) T he a gr e e m e nt be t w e e n t he f i r s t t w o c yc l e s ( 1966 t o 1968) i s ve r y hi gh; how e ve r f r om 1960 t o 1966, t he t w o p a t hs a ppe a r ( a vg a b s = 0 093 m m ol / m ol )

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79 F i gur e 8. S c a nne d i m a ge s of t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de ( bot t om ) a nd t he oppos i ng s a m pl i ng s i de ( t op) of 92 P A A 1 B I m a ge s on r i g ht a r e t he s a m pl i ng pa t h m a gni f i e d t o hi ghl i ght t he g r ow t h di r e c t i on of t he c o r a l l i t e s T h e c or a l l i t e s on t he oppos i ng s i de ( t op r i ght ) a ppe a r t o be gr ow i ng pa r a l l e l t o t he s a m pl i n g pa t h; w he r e a s t he c or a l l i t e s on t he or i g i na l s a m pl i ng s i de o f t he s l a b a r e not or i e nt e d pa r a l l e l t o t he s a m pl i ng pa t h ( bot t om r i ght ) T he m a gni f i e d i m a ge f r om t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de of 92 P A A 1 B ( bot t om r i ght ) c o r r e s ponds t o t he s a m pl e s i n F i gur e 7c w he r e a l a r ge of f s e t oc c ur s ( 1960 t o 1966 )

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80 F i gur e 9. C o r a l X r a di ogr a ph w i t h m ul t i pl e s a m pl i ng pa t hs on 92 P A A 1 B T he c or a l w a s or i gi na l l y s a m pl e d by Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] us i ng a s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on of 4 s a m pl e s / c m T hi s s t udy s a m pl e d a l ong on e i t he r s i de of t he Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] pa t h us i ng 15 s a m pl e s / c m a nd 30 s a m pl e s / c m ; t he pa t hs a r e < 0. 5 c m a pa r t

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81 F i gur e 10. S a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on c om pa r i s on be t w e e n pa r a l l e l pa t hs on 92 P A A 1 B ( F i gur e 9 ) S a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons w e r e de t e r m i ne d f or c or a l ( a ) 1 8 O ( b ) S r / C a a nd ( c ) 1 3 C a t di f f e r e nt s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons ; 4 s a m pl e s / c m ( s e a s ona l l y) [ Q ui nn, e t al 1998] 15 s a m pl e s / c m ( m ont hl y) a nd 30 s a m pl e s / c m ( f or t ni ght l y) S e a s ona l l y a nd f or t ni ght l y va r i a t i ons w e r e a l i gne d w i t h m ont hl y va r i a t i ons E r r o r ba r s r e pr e s e nt a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on. ( d) T he m e a n a m p l i t ude f o r e a c h s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on f o r S r / C a a nd 1 8 O T he di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons s a m pl e d w i t h m ont hl y a nd f or t ni ght l y r e s ol ut i on i s w i t hi n a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on of t he S r / C a m e a s ur e m e nt M e a n c or a l S r / C a 1 8 O a nd 1 3 C va l ue s do not c ha nge s i gni f i c a nt l y a s a f unc t i on o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on ( T a bl e 3 ) T he a m pl i t ude o f t he a nnua l c yc l e s i nc r e a s e s w i t h f i ne r s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i ons ; how e ve r t he i nc r e a s e i s not l i ne a r but l e ve l s of f w i t h i nc r e a s i ng r e s ol ut i on.

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83 F i gur e 11. I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T h r e e c or e s ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 1, a nd 92 P A A 2) a r e f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd t he ot he r t w o ( 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1) a r e c ol oni e s i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y t o P A A ( F i gur e 1) T he bo t t om g r a ph s how s t he f i ve m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds t oge t he r T hr e e r e c or ds ( 92 P A C 1, 92 P A D 1, a nd 99 P A A ) w e r e or i gi na l l y s a m pl e d by S t e phans e t al [ 2004] f r o m 1967 t o 1992 a nd 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1 w e r e e xt e nde d i n t hi s s t udy ( T a bl e 2) T he m e a ns a nd s t a nda r d de vi a t i ons f or t he f i ve c or a l S r / C a a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt ( T a bl e 7) a nd t he c or r e l a t i ons be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a va r i a t i ons i s > 0 8 9 f or t he pe r i od 1900 t o 2000 ( T a bl e 10) N ot e t he hi gh de gr e e o f r e pr oduc i bi l i t y be t w e e n c or a l S r / C a t i m e s e r i e s

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85 F i gur e 12. I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a a nom a l i e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a ( a ) T he t i m e i nt e r va l f or e a c h c or a l S r / C a r e c or d i nc l ude d i n t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d. R e c or ds w e r e s e pa r a t e d by ( b) i nt r a c ol ony c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds ( 99 P A A 92 P A A 1 a nd 92 P A A 2) a nd ( c ) i nt e r c ol ony c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds ( s t a c k P A A 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) T he r e c or ds f r om t he P A A c ol ony w e r e a ve r a ge d t o c r e a t e a s t a c k a v e r a ge r e c or d f o r t he c ol ony P A A ( b) a nd t he r e c or d s f r om e a c h c ol ony w e r e a ve r a ge d t o c r e a t e a s t a c k a ve r a ge r e c or d of a l l c ol oni e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd ( c ) A nom a l i e s w e r e c a l c ul a t e d a s di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n e a c h m ont hl y m e a s ur e m e nt a nd t he a ve r a ge S r / C a va l ue f or e a c h m on t h f o r t he i nt e r va l 1967 t o 1992 ( gr a y box) E a c h m ont hl y c o r a l S r / C a r e c or d w a s s m oot he d us i ng a 25 m ont h f i ni t e i m pul s e r e s pons e ( F I R ) f i l t e r T he m e a ns a nd s t a nda r ds de vi a t i ons of f i ve c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a r e no t s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f o r t he 20t h c e nt ur y ( T a bl e 8) t he c or a l S r / C a r e c or ds a r e hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e ( r > 0. 90 p < 0. 05; T a bl e 10) a nd t he ove r a l l a vg a b s i s 0 036 0. 028 m m ol / m ol ( 1 ) be t w e e n a l l r e c or ds ( T a bl e 1 1)

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86

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87 F i gur e 13. M ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd 1 8 O S S T a nom a l i e s c om pa r e d w i t h S S T ( a ) T he nu m be r s of c or e s a ve r a ge d f or e a c h m ont h of t he s t a c k a ve r a ge c or a l ge oc he m i c a l r e c or d f o r t he 20 t h c e nt ur y ( b) M ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd 1 8 O S S T a nom a l i e s c om pa r e d w i t h t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or de d of f s hor e f r om A m d e I s l a nd ( I R D ) a nd t he 1 g r i d box e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1. 1 da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd ( 22. 5 S 166. 5 E ; H a dI S S T _A I ) A nom a l i e s w e r e c a l c ul a t e d a s di f f e r e nc e be t w e e n e a c h m ont hl y m e a s ur e m e nt a nd t he a ve r a ge S r / C a va l ue f or e a c h m ont h f or t he i nt e r va l 1967 t o 1992 ( g r a y box) E a c h m ont hl y r e c or d w a s s m oot he d us i ng a 25xw m ont h f i n i t e i m pul s e r e s pons e ( F I R ) f i l t e r a nd t he s e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O r e c or d w a s s m oot he d us i ng a 2 ye a r F I R f i l t e r A l l m ont h l y r e s ol ve d 1 8 O a nd S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w e r e f r om s pl i t s of t he s a m e s a m pl e e xc e pt f or s e c t i ons of 92 P A A 1 f r om Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] a nd C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999 ] ( T a bl e 2) ( c ) C o he r e nc e s qua r e d f r om c r os s s pe c t r a l a na l ys i s of m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O S i gni f i c a nc e t e s t e d a ga i ns t a 95 % c onf i de nc e l e ve l

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88 F i gur e 14. A nnua l a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a S S T va r i a t i ons f or A m d e I s l a nd. ( a ) T he t i m e i nt e r va l f o r e a c h c or a l S r / C a r e c or d i nc l ude d i n t he s t a c k c o r a l S r / C a r e c or d ( b ) A nnua l a ve r a g e of s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T c om pa r e d w i t h t he i n s i t u S S T r e c or de d of f s hor e f r om A m d e I s l a nd ( I R D ) a nd t he 1 gr i d box e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1. 1 da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] c e nt e r e d on A m d e I s l a nd ( 22. 5 S 166. 5 E ; H a dI S S T _A I ) A nnua l a ve r a ge s w e r e c a l c ul a t e d ove r a c l i m a t ol og i c a l ye a r ( A pr i l t o M a r c h) A ~ 0 6 C w a r m i ng t r e nd i s obs e r ve d i n t he a nnua l a ve r a ge c o r a l S r / C a S S T f or t he 20t h c e nt ur y T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n a nnua l a ve r a ge s of s t a c ks c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd H a dI S S T i s 0. 68 ( p < 0. 05 n = 100 ; T a bl e 12 ) S r / C a S S T ( C ) = 0 006( 0. 003 2 ) *y e a r + 10. 98 ( 5. 5 2 )

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89 Figure 15. Expressed population signal (EPS) for coral paleoclimatological reconstructions. EPS is used in dendrochronology to assess th e number of records needed to replicate a signal and judge the strength of the common signal against a perfect noise free chronology. EPS is given by (1) where N is the number of records (trees or corals), and is the mean inter record correlation coefficient (trees or coral colonies) [ Wigley, et al. 1984] The acceptable EPS value used in dendrochro nology studies is 0.85 (dashed line) [ Wigley, et al. 1984] Equation and graph adapted from Briffa [1995] The EPS for the inter colony monthly coral Sr/Ca records is 0.97 ( = 0.93, red dot) and 0.84 for annual average ( = 0.63, blue dot).

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90 F i gur e 16. R e gr e s s i on of t he c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i n a t i ons w i t h i n s i t u S S T T r a ns f e r f unc t i ons w e r e de t e r m i ne d us i ng t hr e e di f f e r e nt r e gr e s s i on m e t hods : O L S R M A a nd M L E f o r t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1999 ( R = 0. 93 p < 0. 05, n = 392) O bs e r va t i ons a r e r e por t e d w i t h e r r or ba r s f o r bot h c or a l S r / C a a nd S S T T he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w i t h onl y one obs e r va t i on ha ve l a r ge r e r r o r ba r s a nd a l l t he obs e r va t i ons out s i de t he m a i n da t a c l us t e r a r e s i ngl e obs e r va t i on s T he l a r ge r S S T e r r or ba r s a r e a dj us t e d H a dI S S T _A I m e a s ur e m e nt s w hi c h w e r e a dde d t o t he i n s i t u S S T t o c om pl e t e t he r e c or d. T he s t a nda r d e r r or of r e gr e s s i on f or M L E ( re g = 1 35 C ) w a s c a l c ul a t e d us i ng e f f e c t i ve de gr e e s of f r e e dom ( dof = 105) w h i c h a c c ount s f or s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i on; t hi s di f f e r s t he r e g c a l c ul a t e d us i ng nu m be r o f obs e r va t i ons ( n = 39 2; re g = 0 68 C ) T ypi c a l l y, i n c or a l ba s e d S S T r e c ons t r uc t i ons us i ng O L S S S T i s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( x ) a nd t he c or a l ge oc he m i s t r y i s t he de pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( y ) s o t ha t t he va r i a bl e w i t h t he l e a s t a m ount o f unc e r t a i nt y i s t he i nde pe nde nt va r i a bl e ( x ) O L S a nd M L E e qua t i ons w e r e r e ve r s e d ( x = S r / C a y = S S T ) t o de m ons t r a t e t he di f f e r e nc e i n s w a ppi ng t he r e gr e s s or s ( x y ) ; t he r e ve r s e d O L S s ol ut i on p r o duc e s a di f f e r e nt s ol ut i on w he r e a s R M A a nd M L E r e ve r s e d s ol ut i on p r oduc e s i de nt i c a l r e s ul t s ( T a bl e 13 )

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92 F i gur e 17. C a l i b r a t i on a nd ve r i f i c a t i on o f t he c or a l S r / C a S S T t r a ns f e r f unc t i on. ( a ) T he t i m e i nt e r va l f or e a c h c or a l S r / C a r e c or d i nc l ude d i n t he s t a c k c or a l S r / C a r e c or d. ( b) M ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T a nom a l i e s w i t h i n s i t u S S T r e c or d a nd H a dI S S T _A I a nom a l i e s A nom a l i e s w e r e c a l c ul a t e d a s di f f e r e n c e be t w e e n e a c h m ont hl y m e a s ur e m e nt a nd t he a ve r a ge c or a l S r / C a S S T va l ue f o r e a c h m ont h f or t he i n t e r va l 1967 t o 1992 E a c h m ont hl y r e c or d w a s s m oot he d us i ng a 25 m on t h f i n i t e i m pul s e r e s pons e ( F I R ) f i l t e r ( c ) R e s i dua l s of pr e di c t e d c o r a l S r / C a S S T m i nus t he obs e r ve d S S T T he c o r a l S r / C a w a s c a l i br a t e d w i t h i n s i t u S S T f o r t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1999 ( gr a y box) a nd ve r i f i e d f o r t he pe r i od 1900 t o 1967 w i t h t he i nde pe nde nt S S T da t a e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1 1 ( 1 gr i d c e nt e r e d on 22. 5 S 166. 5 E ) [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] ( d) T he n um be r o f obs e r va t i ons f r om t he C O A D S S S T da t a ba s e [ W oodr uf f e t al 1998] t ha t c o r r e s pond t o t he 1 gr i d box e xt r a c t e d f r om H a dI S S T 1 1 [ R ay ne r e t al 2003 ] T he H a d I S S T 1 1 gl oba l S S T da t a ba s e [ R ay ne r e t a l 2003] i s c om pos e d of m os t l y S S T obs e r va t i ons f r om t he C O A D S S S T da t a s e t [ W oo dr uf f e t al 1998] i n t he pr e r e m ot e s e ns i ng e r a

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93 R e f e r e nc e s C i t e d A l i be r t C a nd M T M c C ul l oc h ( 1997) S t r ont i u m / c a l c i um r a t i os i n m ode r n P or i t e s c or a l s f r om t he G r e a t B a r r i e r R e e f a s a pr oxy f or s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e : c a l i br a t i on of t he t he r m om e t e r a nd m oni t o r i ng of E N S O P al e oc e anogr aphy 12 345 363. A l l i s on, N a nd A A F i nc h ( 2004 ) H i gh r e s ol ut i on S r / C a r e c or ds i n m ode r n P or i t e s l obat a c or a l s : E f f e c t s of s ke l e t a l e xt e ns i on r a t e a nd a r c hi t e c t ur e G e oc he m i s t r y G e ophy s i c s G e o s y s t e m s 5 Q 05001. A l or y, G A V e ga A G a na c ha ud a nd M D e s pi noy ( 2006) I nf l ue nc e of upw e l l i ng, s ubs ur f a c e s t r a t i f i c a t i on, a nd he a t f l uxe s on c oa s t a l s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e of f s out hw e s t e r n N e w C a l e doni a J our nal of G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h 111 C07023 B a gna t o, S B K L i ns l e y, S S H ow e G M W e l l i ngt on, a nd J S a l i nge r ( 2004 ) E va l ua t i ng t he us e o f t he m a s s i ve c or a l D i pl oas t r e a he l i opor a f or pa l e oc l i m a t e r e c ons t r uc t i on, P al e oc e anogr aphy 19 P A 1032. B a r ne s D J a nd J M L ough ( 1996) C or a l s ke l e t ons : s t or a ge a nd r e c ove r y o f e nvi r onm e nt a l i nf o r m a t i on, G l obal C hange B i ol og y 2 569 582 B e c k, J W R L E dw a r ds E I t o F W T a yl or J R e c y, F R ouge r i e P J oa nnot a nd C H e ni n ( 1992) S e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e s f r o m c or a l s ke l e t a l s t r ont i um / c a l c i um r a t i os Sc i e nc e 257 644 647. B e nda t J S a nd A G P i e r s ol ( 1971) R ando m D at a: A na l y s i s and M e as ur e m e nt s P r oc e dur e s 2nd e d. 407 pp. J ohn W i l e y & S ons I nc N e w Y or k B l oom f i e l d, P ( 1976) F our i e r A nal y s i s of T i m e S e r i e s : A n I nt r oduc t i on 258 pp J ohn W i l e y & S ons N e w Y or k

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94 B r i f f a K R ( 1995) I nt e r pr e t i ng h i gh r e s ol u t i on p r oxy c l i m a t e da t a t he e xa m pl e of de ndr oc l i m a t ol ogy, i n A na l y s i s of C l i m at e V ar i abi l i t y e di t e d by H von S t or c h a nd A N a va r r a pp 77 94 S pr i nge r V e r l a g, B e r l i n. C a bi oc h, G J R e c y, C J oua nni c a nd L T ur pi n ( 1996) C l i m a t i c a nd t e c t oni c c ont r ol s on l a t e Q ua t e r na r y r e e f g r ow t h i n N e w C a l e doni a B ul l e t i n Soc i e t e G e ol ogi que de F r anc e 167 729 742 C a r di na l D B H a m e l i n, E B a r d a nd J P t z ol d ( 2001) S r / C a U / C a a nd 1 8 O r e c or ds i n r e c e nt m a s s i ve c or a l s f r om B e r m uda : r e l a t i ons hi ps w i t h s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e C he m i c al G e ol ogy 176 213 233. C obb, K M C D C ha r l e s H C he ng, M K a s t ne r a nd R L E dw a r ds ( 2003a ) U / T h da t i ng l i vi ng a nd young f os s i l c or a l s f r om t he c e nt r a l t r opi c a l P a c i f i c E ar t h and P l ane t ar y Sc i e nc e L e t t e r s 210 91 103. C obb, K M C D C ha r l e s H C he ng, a nd R L a w e r e nc e E dw a r ds ( 2003b) E l N i o/ S out he r n O s c i l l a t i on a nd t r opi c a l P a c i f i c c l i m a t e dur i ng t he l a s t m i l l e nni um N at ur e 424 271 276. C ohe n, A L S R S m i t h, M S M c C a r t ne y, a nd J va n E t t e n ( 2004) H o w b r a i n c or a l s r e c or d c l i m a t e : a n i nt e gr a t i on of s ke l e t a l s t r uc t u r e gr ow t h a nd c he m i s t r y of D i p l or i a l aby r i nt hi f or m i s f r om B e r m uda M ar i ne E c ol ogy P r ogr e s s Se r i e s 271 147 158. C ohe n, A L a nd R A S ohn ( 2004 ) T i da l m odul a t i on of S r / C a r a t i os i n a P a c i f i c r e e f c or a l G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h L e t t e r s 31 L 16310. C ol e J E a nd R G F a i r ba nks ( 1990) T he s out he r n os c i l l a t i on r e c or de d i n t he 1 8 O of c or a l s f r om T a r a w a A t ol l P al e oc e anogr aphy 5 6 69 683. C ol e J E R G F a i r ba nks a nd G T S he n ( 1993) R e c e nt va r i a bi l i t y i n t he S out he r n O s c i l l a t i on: i s ot opi c r e s ul t s f r om a T a r a w a A t ol l c or a l Sc i e nc e 260 1790 1793 C ook, E R ( 1995 ) T e m pe r a t ur e hi s t or i e s f r o m t r e e r i ngs a nd c or a l s C l i m at e D y nam i c s 11 211 222

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100 P a r ke r D E M J a c ks on, a nd E B H or t o n ( 1995 ) T he 1961 1990 G I S S T 2. 2 S e a S ur f a c e T e m pe r a t u r e a nd S e a I c e C l i m a t ol ogy C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h T e c hni c a l N ot e 63 ( C R N T 63) H a dl e y C e nt e r f or C l i m a t e P r e di c t i on a nd R e s e a r c h, M e t e or ol ogy O f f i c e B r a c kne l l B e r k s hi r e E ngl a nd, U K P e s i n, E S B l a i z e D L a c os t e M A r ge nt a nd F M t o ( 1995) A t l as c l i m at i que de l a N ouv e l l e C al doni e M t o F r a nc e N oum a N ou ve l l e C a l doni e P e t e r s on, T C a nd R S V os e ( 1997) A n ove r vi e w of t he G l oba l H i s t or i c a l C l i m a t o l ogy N e t w or k t e m pe r a t u r e da t a ba s e B ul l e t i n of t he A m e r i c an M e t e or ol ogi c al Soc i e t y 78 2837 2849 P r e s s W H S A T e ukol s ky, W T V e t t e r l i ng a nd B P F l a nna r y ( 1992) N um e r i c al R e c i pe s i n C T he A r t of Sc i e nt i f i c C om put i ng 2n d e d. C a m br i dge U ni v e r s i t y P r e s s C a m br i dge Q ui nn, T M T J C r ow l e y, F W T a yl or C H e ni n, P J oa nnot a nd Y J oi n ( 1998 ) A m ul t i c e nt ur y s t a bl e i s ot ope r e c or d f r om a N e w C a l e doni a c or a l : i nt e r a nnua l a nd de c a da l s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e va r i a bi l i t y i n t he s out hw e s t P a c i f i c s i nc e 1657 A D P al e oc e anogr aphy 13 412 426. Q ui nn, T M a nd D E S a m ps on ( 2002) A m ul t i p r oxy a ppr oa c h t o r e c ons t r uc t i ng s e a s ur f a c e c ondi t i ons us i ng c or a l s ke l e t on ge oc he m i s t r y, P al e oc e anogr aphy 17 1062. Q ui nn, T M F W T a yl or T J C r ow l e y a nd S M L i nk ( 1996) E va l ua t i on o f s a m pl i ng r e s ol ut i on i n c o r a l s t a bl e i s ot ope r e c or ds : a c a s e s t udy us i ng r e c or ds f r om N e w C a l e doni a a nd T a r a w a P al e oc e anogr aphy 11 52 9 542. R a yne r N A D E P a r ke r E B H or t on C K F ol l a nd, L V A l e xa nde r D P R ow e l l E C K e nt a nd A K a pl a n ( 2003) G l oba l a na l ys e s of S S T s e a i c e a nd ni ght m a r i ne a i r t e m pe r a t ur e s i nc e t he l a t e ni ne t e e nt h c e nt ur y, J our nal of G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h 108 4407. R e n, L B K L i ns l e y, G M W e l l i ngt on, D P S c hr a g, a nd O H oe gh G ul dbe r g ( 2003) D e c onvol vi ng t he 1 8 O s e a w a t e r c om pone nt f r o m s ubs e a s ona l c or a l 1 8 O a nd S r / C a a t R a r ot onga i n t he s out hw e s t e r n s ubt r opi c a l P a c i f i c f or t he pe r i od 1726 t o 1997, G e oc hi m i c a e t C os m oc hi m i c a A c t a 67 1609 1621

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101 R e ynol ds R W N A R a yne r T M S m i t h D C S t oke s a nd W W a ng ( 2002 ) A n i m pr ove d i n s i t u a nd s a t e l l i t e S S T a na l ys i s f or c l i m a t e J our nal of C l i m at e 15 1609 1625. R ouge r i e F ( 1986 ) L e l a gon s ud oue s t du N ouve l l e C a l doni a : s p c i f i c i t hydr ol ogi que dyna m i que e t p r oduc t i vi t 234 pp I ns t i t ut F r a nc a i s de R e c he r c he S c i e nt i f i que P our l e D ve l oppe m e nt e n C oop r a t i o n, P a r i s S c hr a g, D P ( 1999) R a pi d a na l ys i s of hi gh pr e c i s i on S r / C a r a t i os i n c or a l s a nd ot he r m a r i ne c a r bona t e s P a l e oc e anogr aphy 14 97 102. S he n, G T J E C ol e D W L e a T A M c C onna ughe y, a nd R G F a i r ba nks ( 1992 ) S ur f a c e oc e a n va r i a bi l i t y a t G a l a pa gos f r o m 1936 1982: c a l i br a t i on o f ge oc he m i c a l t r a c e r s i n c or a l s P al e oc e anogr aphy 7 563 583 S he n, G T a nd R B D unba r ( 1995 ) E nvi r onm e n t a l c ont r ol s on u r a ni um i n r e e f c or a l s G e oc hi m i c a e t C os m oc hi m i c a A c t a 59 2009 2024 S i nc l a i r D J ( 2005 ) C or r e l a t e d t r a c e e l e m e nt vi t a l e f f e c t s i n t r opi c a l c or a l s : A ne w ge oc he m i c a l t ool f or pr obi ng bi om i ne r a l i z a t i on G e oc hi m i c a e t C os m oc hi m i c a A c t a 69 3265. S l ut z R J S J L ubke r J D H i s c ox, S D W ood r uf f R L J e nne P M S t e ur e r a nd J D E l m s ( 1985) C om pr e he ns i ve O c e a n A t m os phe r e D a t a S e t ; R e l e a s e 1, e di t e d, C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h P r ogr a m B oul de r C ol or a do S m i t h, J M T M Q ui nn K P H e l m l e a nd R B H a l l e y ( 2006) R e pr oduc i bi l i t y o f ge oc he m i c a l a nd c l i m a t i c s i gna l s i n t he A t l a nt i c c o r a l M ont as t r ae a f av e ol at a P al e oc e anogr aphy 21 P A 1010. S m i t h, S V R W B udde m e i e r R C R e da l j e a n d J E H ouc k ( 1979) S t r ont i um c a l c i um t he r m om e t r y i n c or a l s ke l e t ons Sc i e nc e 2 04 404 406 S m i t h, T M a nd R W R e ynol ds ( 2004) I m pr ov e d e xt e nde d r e c ons t r uc t i on of S S T ( 1854 1997) J our nal of C l i m at e 17 2466 2477.

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102 S ol ow A R a nd A H uppe r t ( 2004) A pot e nt i a l bi a s i n c or a l r e c ons t r uc t i on of s e a s ur f a c e t e m pe r a t ur e G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h L e t t e r s 31 L 06308 L 06311 S t e pha ns C T M Q ui nn, F W T a yl or a nd T C or r ge ( 2004 ) A s s e s s i ng t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y o f c or a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c or ds G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h L e t t e r s 31 L 18210 L 18214 S t e pha ns C L ( 2003) A s s e s s i ng t he r e pr oduc i bi l i t y of c o r a l ba s e d c l i m a t e r e c or ds : a m ul t i pr oxy r e pl i c a t i on t e s t us i ng t hr e e P or i t e s l ut e a c or a l he a ds f r om N e w C a l e doni a 84 pp, U ni ve r s i t y o f S o ut h F l o r i da T a m pa F l o r i da T r e nbe r t h, K E a nd B L O t t o B l i e s ne r ( 2003) T ow a r d i nt e gr a t e d r e c ons t r uc t i on of pa s t c l i m a t e s Sc i e nc e 300 589 590 T udhope A W D W L e a G B S hi m m i e l d, C P C hi l c ot t a nd S H e a d ( 1996) M ons oon c l i m a t e a nd A r a bi a n s e a c oa s t a l upw e l l i ng r e c or de d i n m a s s i ve c or a l s f r om s out he r n O m a n, P al ai os 11 347 361. U r ba n, F E J E C ol e a nd J T O ve r pe c k ( 2000) I n f l ue nc e of m e a n c l i m a t e c ha nge on c l i m a t e va r i a bi l i t y f r om a 155 ye a r t r opi c a l P a c i f i c c or a l r e c or d N at ur e 407 989 993. von S t or c h, H ( 1995 ) M i s us e s of s t a t i s t i c a l a na l ys i s i n c l i m a t e r e s e a r c h, i n A nal y s i s of C l i m at e V ar i abi l i t y e di t e d by H von S t o r c h a nd A N a va r r a pp 11 26 S pr i ng V e r l a g, B e r l i n. von S t or c h, H ( 1999 ) St at i s t i c al A nal y s i s i n C l i m at e R e s e ar c h f i r s t e d 484 pp C a m br i dge U ni ve r s i t y P r e s s C a m br i dge U K W e be r J N ( 1973) I nc or p o r a t i on o f s t r ont i u m i nt o r e e f c or a l s ke l e t a l c a r bona t e G e oc hi m i c a e t C os m oc hi m i c a A c t a 37 2173 2190 W e be r J N a nd P M W oodhe a d ( 1972 ) T e m pe r a t ur e de pe nde nc e of oxyge n 18 c onc e nt r a t i on i n r e e f c or a l c a r bona t e s J our nal of G e ophy s i c al R e s e ar c h 77 463 473

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103 W i gl e y, T M L K R B r i f f a a nd P D J one s ( 19 84) O n t he a ve r a ge va l ue of c o r r e l a t e d t i m e s e r i e s w i t h a ppl i c a t i ons i n de ndr oc l i m a t ol og y a nd hydr om e t e or o l ogy, J our nal of A ppl i e d M e t e or ol ogy 23 201 213. W oodr uf f S D H F D i a z J D E l m s a nd S J W or l e y ( 1998) C O A D S r e l e a s e 2 da t a a nd m e t a da t a e nha nc e m e nt s f or i m p r ove m e nt s of m a r i ne s ur f a c e f l ux f i e l ds P hy s i c s and C he m i s t r y of t he E ar t h 23 517 526. W oodr uf f S D R J S l ut z R L J e nne a nd P M S t e ur e r ( 1 987) A c om p r e he ns i ve oc e a n a t m os phe r e da t a s e t B ul l e t i n of t he A m e r i c an M e t e or ol ogi c al Soc i e t y 68 1239 1250. Y or k, D ( 1966) L e a s t s qua r e s f i t t i ng of a s t r a i ght l i ne C anadi an J our nal O f P hy s i c s 44 1079 1086 Y or k, D ( 1969) L e a s t s qua r e s f i t t i ng of a s t r a i ght l i ne w i t h c or r e l a t e d e r r o r s E ar t h A nd P l ane t ar y Sc i e nc e L e t t e r s 5 320 324. Y or k, D a nd N M E ve ns e n ( 2004) U ni f i e d e qua t i ons f or t he s l ope i n t e r c e pt a nd s t a nda r d e r r or s of t he be s t s t r a i ght l i ne A m e r i c an J our nal of P hy s i c s 72 367 375

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105 A ppe ndi x A A ddi t i ona l c or a l ge oc he m i c a l va r i a t i ons f r om pa r a l l e l s a m pl i ng on oppos i ng s i de s of 92 P A A 1 B ( F i gu r e 7) : ( a ) 1 3 C ( b) M g/ C a ( c ) 1 8 O a nd ( d) S r / C a T he t r a c e e l e m e nt a l a nd i s ot opi c r a t i os f o r t he or i gi na l s a m pl i ng s i de a r e f r om t w o di f f e r e nt s a m pl i ng pa t hs ( F i gur e 4 ) w he r e t r a c e e l e m e nt s w e r e m e a s ur e d by t hi s s t udy a nd i s ot ope s by Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] E r r o r ba r s r e pr e s e nt r e s pe c t i ve a na l yt i c a l pr e c i s i on ( 1 ) T he a gr e e m e nt be t w e e n m ont hl y c or a l S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons on oppos i ng s i de s f or t he f i r s t t w o c yc l e s ( 0 t o 2 c m ) i s ve r y hi gh; how e ve r f r om 2 t o 10 c m t he t w o c o r a l S r / C a pa t hs di ve r ge ( a vg a b s = 0. 093 m m ol / m ol ) but a s i m i l a r di ve r ge nc e i s not obs e r ve d i n t he ot he r ge oc he m i c a l r a t i os

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107 I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l 1 8 O v a r i a t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T w o c or e s ( 99 P A A a nd 92 P A A 1) a r e f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd t he ot he r t w o c or e s ( 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1) a r e c ol oni e s i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y t o P A A ( F i gu r e 1) T h r e e r e c or ds ( 99 P A A 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) w e r e or i gi na l l y s a m pl e d by S t e phans e t al [ 2004] ba c k t o 1967 a nd 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1 w e r e e xt e nde d i n t hi s s t udy ( T a bl e 2 ) T he m ul t i c or e a l i gnm e nt r e s ul t e d i n c ha nge s t o t he Q ui nn e t al [ 1996; 1 998] i s ot ope c hr onol ogy a nd t he S t e phans e t al [ 2004] c hr onol ogi e s A l l m ont hl y r e s ol ve d i s ot opi c a nd t r a c e e l e m e nt a l de t e r m i na t i ons w e r e f r o m s pl i t s of t he s a m e s a m pl e e xc e pt f or s e c t i ons of 92 P A A 1 f r om Q ui nn e t al [ 1998 ] a nd C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] ( T a bl e 2 ) T he m e a ns a nd s t a nda r d de vi a t i ons of t he f our c or a l 1 8 O a r e not s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 T he c or a l 1 8 O s i gna l i s hi ghl y r e pr oduc i bl e f or t he pe r i od 1967 t o 1992 a s r e por t e d by St e phans e t al [ 2004] a nd c or r e l a t i on va l ue s f or t hi s s t udy ( r = 0 80 t o 0. 90 p < 0 05, n = 304) a r e e qua l t o o r s l i ght l y hi ghe r t ha n t hos e r e por t e d b y St e phans e t al [ 2004 ] a f t e r a dj us t m e nt s t o t he c hr onol ogi e s

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109 I nt r a c ol ony a nd i nt e r c ol ony m ont hl y c or a l 1 3 C v a r i a t i ons f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a T w o c or e s ( 99 P A A a nd 92 P A A 1) a r e f r om t he s a m e c or a l c ol ony ( P A A ) a nd t he ot he r t w o c or e s ( 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1) a r e c ol oni e s i n c l os e pr oxi m i t y t o P A A ( F i gu r e 1) T h r e e r e c or ds ( 99 P A A 92 P A C 1, a nd 92 P A D 1) w e r e or i gi na l l y s a m pl e d by S t e phans [ 2003] ba c k t o 1967 a nd 92 P A C 1 a nd 92 P A D 1 w e r e e xt e nde d i n t hi s s t udy ( T a bl e 2) T he m u l t i c or e a l i gnm e nt r e s ul t e d i n c ha nge s t o t he Q ui nn e t al [ 1996; 1998] i s ot ope c hr onol ogy a nd t he St e phans [ 2003] c hr onol ogi e s A l l m ont hl y r e s ol ve d i s ot opi c a nd t r a c e e l e m e nt a l de t e r m i na t i ons w e r e f r om s pl i t s of t he s a m e s a m pl e e xc e pt f or s e c t i ons of 92 P A A 1 f r om Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] a nd C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999] ( T a bl e 2) T he m ont hl y c or a l 1 3 C va r i a t i ons be t w e e n i nt r a c ol on y a nd i nt e r c ol ony c o r e s f r om A m d e I s l a nd, N e w C a l e doni a do not e xhi bi t t he s a m e s i gna l r e pr oduc i bi l i t y obs e r ve d i n t he c o r a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O va r i a t i ons T he m e a n c or a l 1 3 C be t w e e n c or e s f r om t he s a m e c ol ony ( 99 P A A St e phans [ 2003] a nd 92 P A A 1 Q ui nn e t al [ 1996 ; 1998] ) f or t he pe r i od 1965 t o 1992 di d n ot di f f e r s i gni f i c a nt l y; how e ve r t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he i nt r a c ol ony c or a l 1 3 C i s l ow e r t ha n t he c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O i nt r a c ol on y c or r e l a t i on ( r = 0 54, p < 0. 05 n = 329) T he m e a n c or a l 1 3 C be t w e e n c or a l c ol o ni e s i s s i gni f i c a nt l y di f f e r e nt a s r e por t e d by St e pha ns [ 2003] a nd t he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n t he P A A c or e s a nd 92 P A D 1 i s i ns i gni f i c a nt ( p = 0. 05) T he c or r e l a t i on be t w e e n 92 P A C 1 a nd t he ot he r c ol oni e s i s s i gni f i c a nt ( p < 0. 05) bu t l ow e r t ha n t he i nt r a c ol o ny ( P A A ) c or r e l a t i ons w hi c h r a nge f r om 0. 34 t o 0 44.

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111 P a i r e d a na l ys i s of c or a l S r / C a a nd 1 8 O t o e s t i m a t e s e a w a t e r 1 8 O ( a ) T he nu m be r s of c or e s a ve r a ge d f or e a c h m ont h i n t he s t a c k a ve r a ge c or a l ge oc he m i c a l r e c or d. ( b) M ont hl y s t a c k c or a l S r / C a S S T a nd ( c ) m ont hl y s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O S S T r e c or ds A l l m ont hl y r e s ol ve d 1 8 O a nd S r / C a de t e r m i na t i ons w e r e f r om s pl i t s of t he s a m e s a m pl e e xc e pt f or s e c t i ons of 92 P A A 1 f r om Q ui nn e t al [ 1998] a nd C r ow l e y e t al [ 1999 ] ( T a bl e 2 ) ( d ) M ont hl y i n s i t u S S S of f s hor e of A m d e I s l a nd. ( e ) 1 8 O s w c a l c ul a t e d us i ng pa i r e d a na l ys i s of s t a c k c or a l S r / C a a nd s t a c k c or a l 1 8 O va r i a t i ons 1 8 O c o r a l = S S T + 1 8 O s w S r / C a c o ra l = S S T + S r / C a s w ( S r / C a s w i s a s s um e d t o be c ons t a nt )