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Two essays on information ambiguity and informed trader's trade-size choice

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Material Information

Title:
Two essays on information ambiguity and informed trader's trade-size choice
Physical Description:
Book
Language:
English
Creator:
Xu, Ziwei
Publisher:
University of South Florida
Place of Publication:
Tampa, Fla
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Analysts' Forecast Revisions
Stock Return Skewness
Analyst Forecast Accuracy
Informed Trading
Trade Size
Order Flow Imbalance
Dissertations, Academic -- Finance -- Doctoral -- USF   ( lcsh )
Genre:
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
ABSTRACT: Defining ambiguity as investor's uncertainty about the precision of the observed information, Chapter One constructs an empirical measure of ambiguity based on analysts' earnings forecast information, and finds that the market tends to react more negatively to highly ambiguous bad news, while it tends to be less responsive to highly ambiguous good news. This result supports the theoretical argument of Epstein and Schneider (2003, 2008) that ambiguity-averse investors take a worst-case assessment of the information precision, when they are uncertain about the information precision. In addition, Chapter One shows that returns on stocks exposed to highly ambiguous and intangible information are more negatively skewed. Chapter Two finds that certain traders are informed about either the forthcoming analysts' forecasts or long-term value of the stock, and informed traders prefer to use medium-size trades to exploit their private information advantage. Specifically, medium-size trade imbalance prior to the forecast announcements is positively correlated with the nature of forecast revisions, while in the days immediately after the forecasts medium-size trade imbalance is positively correlated with future stock returns for up to four months. Small-size trade imbalance is also positively correlated with future returns but only following downward revisions. In contrast, it is also shown that large trades placed right after the forecasts are unprofitable and generate slightly negative profits in the long run. Overall, our results are consistent with the "stealth trading hypothesis" proposed by Barclay and Warner (1993).
Thesis:
Dissertation (Ph.D.)--University of South Florida, 2010.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references.
System Details:
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
System Details:
System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Ziwei Xu.
General Note:
Title from PDF of title page.
General Note:
Document formatted into pages; contains X pages.
General Note:
Includes vita.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
usfldc doi - E14-SFE0003353
usfldc handle - e14.3353
System ID:
SFS0027669:00001


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Full Text
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ABSTRACT: Defining ambiguity as investor's uncertainty about the precision of the observed information, Chapter One constructs an empirical measure of ambiguity based on analysts' earnings forecast information, and finds that the market tends to react more negatively to highly ambiguous bad news, while it tends to be less responsive to highly ambiguous good news. This result supports the theoretical argument of Epstein and Schneider (2003, 2008) that ambiguity-averse investors take a worst-case assessment of the information precision, when they are uncertain about the information precision. In addition, Chapter One shows that returns on stocks exposed to highly ambiguous and intangible information are more negatively skewed. Chapter Two finds that certain traders are informed about either the forthcoming analysts' forecasts or long-term value of the stock, and informed traders prefer to use medium-size trades to exploit their private information advantage. Specifically, medium-size trade imbalance prior to the forecast announcements is positively correlated with the nature of forecast revisions, while in the days immediately after the forecasts medium-size trade imbalance is positively correlated with future stock returns for up to four months. Small-size trade imbalance is also positively correlated with future returns but only following downward revisions. In contrast, it is also shown that large trades placed right after the forecasts are unprofitable and generate slightly negative profits in the long run. Overall, our results are consistent with the "stealth trading hypothesis" proposed by Barclay and Warner (1993).
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Stock Return Skewness
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Trade Size
Order Flow Imbalance
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=3 +*. ;rn3rn rrrrr r 7$n ',K '+ r6r,n +I''J +51+E1UO@LNI'J+1LSO 51+E1S@LN J J+1LSO51+E1S1LNI'J+@LSO 51+E1S 1LNI''J+51+E1SO@L,B n, r+ 6, r+K <6r ,T+TTTTT 13L+@L+ 1L +' ,3*323<5=+> 4r4n B 0' GB0H 0'0 #'B #' GB#H B#B0 DF GK < #' H 219?A@C1CA=1C1?2222@ : %0M7$n r3,31?C3,3C>13,3@3>3,31?3,32?93,3132 D3,1@F r3,3>213,3AA3,3A?@3,3@9=3,3CAC3,3?== G3,A29AH (r %0M7$n r3,3?AC3,331@3,332?3,31AC3,3C?3,122CTT D2,@1F r3,331@3,32>23,3>?>3,3>9=3,3?213,3?3=TT G3,323?H r %0M7$n r3,31C>3,32@23,3?>=3,331A3,11A=3,131>T D1,=CF r3,321>3333,1?2C3,121? G3,119?H 3#*/n23<&=?&> 4r4n B 0' GB0H 0'0 #'B #' GB#H B#B0 DF GK < #' H 219=A@CCCA=>C1?2222@ : %0M7$n r3,C??13,?>123,3=2@3,@>@13,AC921,=2>2TTT D>3F r3,C1@3,>>>A3,3@>13,?92=3,A23A1,@>@AT TT GS,3331H (r %0M7$n r3,?3?13,2??13,32=?3,222A3,?A?C3,AAA9TT T D22,?AF r3,>3>?3,1A>>3,31>>3,19?23,?1=>3,C19C TTT GS,3331H r %0M7$n r3,1>293,119C3,3A1>3,3A393,>AA13,@211TT T D11,3=F r3,3A2A3,3?CA33,33993,>C?=3,?@C?TTT GS,3331H

PAGE 68

=1 3*3r23 4r4n B0'GB0H 0'0 #' B#'GB#H B#B0DFGK <#' H 219@A@C@CA=CC1?2222C : %0M7$n r3,2CA3,1?@A3,33=23,22223,>?1?3,=19>TTT D9,?9F r3,1A=3,3A113,3?913,23?93,>>A>3,@2?>T TT GS,3331H (r %0M7$n r3,1A9C3,3>@A3,3C?=3,3@=C3,3A>3,2C2=TT T D@,AF r3,19@@3,3@@A3,32C93,31113,3C?>3,2= 9ATTT GS,3331H r %0M7$n r3,1A?C3,3C223,11C3,3?9@3,32A?3,1@=>TT T D2,@9F r3,1C??3333,3?A3,12=?TT G3,31=AH !+rrrr 'r + r r6 r r ,' r r )6 r ! n n n n r r r r r n r rr r+,,+' r65+1+E1 'r %0M7$n+)+@+2 rr,' r D@+2F

PAGE 69

=2 r 2?+ 'r65+@+2,n' r +r 'r 6,K 6rrr+ r=r6 =,-'6)G233=H r =r =r+ rrr ,n < r 6r ,$H+ 6 +,,r 6+r< r rr ,' + r r r6 ,r6 6n 6 0PQ(r6 r66,2@ 2,?rr G1H +5 r+ 2?7r r rr ,2@ +. 6' r0P 6 ,rr6 .,K +6%Q( )6 r6,

PAGE 70

=> #G2339H, + rrr 'r6 ,%r+13 L' 5+1+E1AL' rrr%0M7$nr+@+2, <, r ' 5 r r6 ,r -'6)G233=H+ 'rr
PAGE 71

=? +*1 $nrrrr; rn 323 r 'r 7$n 'D@+2F'' ,B n, 7: r, ,T+TT TTT13L+@L+ 1L +' "B /(r 74)8#/n>n!2(r 74)8#2n>n!' 74)8#rn>n! nn3,3=11TT3,32C9T3,31>23,339@1,33C@3,3@C>TTT G2,=HG1,C9HG3,@2HG3,?=HG3,2?HG?,?1H3,3313,331C3,33A1TTT3,33=ATT3,33=>3,33@=G3,>2HG3,?AHG2,A2HG2,>9HG1,@?HG1,@AH&+n>n!3,3C9C1TTT3,3C=1TTT3,319ATTT3,31ACTTT3,33=ATT3 ,33=ATTTG21,21HG23,>9HG11,A1HG13,=CHG2,?AHG2,9H282*43,331@TT,3311TT,33>1TTTG2,@9HG2,?1HG@,3?H274)8#/n>n!3,93?@TTTG22,C9H274)8#2n>n!3,??C3TTTG9,?>H274)8#rn>n!3,99@21TTTG2A,@>H0r7'2C99>2=?C=2C99>2=?C=2C99>2=?C= )5!@,?=LC,A@L3,=AL1,CCL3,3@>L?,?1L+*13r2n 3n+'< nnr 6 r' 6 rr < r ',$ nnr+ 6 r,+ r rr rDE 2+E@F6 r 'r 'DE= +EF,

PAGE 72

=@ ? /%+n2rr r +r '%Q( )r '";K ) +; +r+Kr G199CH, :+%+G1999H+r 'r ) '6 r+r r n +. 60P+ (+0"/2@%Q(r6 %Q( )12@%Q(rrrr 6 ),$
PAGE 73

== 0PQ(6r6 r r r rr 6 + 6'D1+2F+r 'r n n ,#r-" n n B+r 'r r 'r HH,'r Q + 6 r2C, 2,@+ 5r +6 <'' r '6 <''+ r H r6 rr

PAGE 74

=C r%Q(), +' r < rrrG+ ,G199=HH, )r 6 +%Q( )+r'' 6 r rrr,K 5r G0PQ(Q0"/H r ,$
PAGE 75

=A r! r 5r,+*5 3rnrrn$r nrr$2rrrr r r 'r r,K + ',B n ,r+ 6 ,r+ K <6r ,T+ TTTTT13L+@L+ 1L +' ,3*2#@'Ar$r<> <# B2r7)C='"=)/4> DE=+ E23F DE=+ E?3F DE=+ EA3F DE=+ E123F DE=+ E2@3F #'5' G$M5BU3H (12?=13,>=C23,>9393,1CAA3,3=293,>22@ ( 3,1AA23,>313,12@93,2C=3,A32> 0'5' G$M5BS3H (1>A9>3,C3391,?12?2,31?A2,>?9C2,2CA@ ( 3,A>C@1,>=?2,3=22,>13@>,11A2 "(1,3=A3TTT1,A?11TTT2,19>@TTT2,?1 2=TTT2,=313TTT DF D13,3=FD11,??FD9,1=FDA,1AFD@,92F (1,32@CTTT1,==@TTT2,1AC9TTT2,3>?@TTT2,> 1@9TTT GK < H GS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331H3#*2/(8 rrAr$ r<> <# B2r7)C='"=)/4>DE=+ E23F DE=+ E?3F DE=+ EA3F DE=+ E123F DE=+ E2@3F #'5' G$M5BU3H (12?=13,>1C>3,2A2A3,12>C3,3A9>3,>3C2 ( 3,39@?3,1A9A3,3>>@3,>1==3,A=2? 0'5' G$M5BS3H (1>A9>3,@A21,193>1,=1>?1,AA3?1,CA1? ( 3,==2C1,3C>11,=?2=1,=@222,?9A2 "(3,A99>TTT1,?C>1TTT1,C>C1TTT1,9= 9CTTT2,3AA=TTT DF DA,=?FD9,29FDC,?2FD=,A?FD?,91F (3,C@A1TTT1,2=29TTT1,=391TTT1,>>@=TTT1, =>@ATTT GK < H GS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331H

PAGE 76

=9 3*2/(8 rrAr$ r<> <# B2r7)C='">DE=+ E23F DE=+ E?3F DE=+ EA3F DE=+ E123F DE=+ E2@3F #'5' G$M5BU3H (12?=33,?2A?3,@C93,=C=13,C9>91,=??1 ( 3,>1>A3,?AA13,?=?13,>?3@3,>3>= 0'5' G$M5BS3H (1>AAA3,?9@23,93@>3,92221,AA3?3,2>>1 ( 3,@3=?3,C2AC1,39>>1,=@223,9A3= "(3,92>=TTT1,?A?2TTT1,@9A>TTT1,C@ 92TTT1,?113TTT DF D9,1=FD9,CFDC,1CFD=,?>FD>,?9F (3,A232TTT1,21=ATTT1,@@C?TTT1,992CTTT1, 2A?2TTT GK < H GS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331HGS,3331H ? !1nrr 2,= 6r r'rr + r rr + ,,+r 'E2E@, +'+ 6! r ,'+rr r r r' 6
PAGE 77

C3 rrr ,nr nnr r rr +r r, +rn r' r '+nn < 'r6 r' 'r +r '6r6+ < r 6 < rr'6 <, # Bn,: +,,6 r
PAGE 78

C1 +*6 3rnrrn$r ;rnD?+=?5Err r r 'r r,K +r r 7$nr rr rDE2+E@F, 5r ";K) r6' 0P (6 ,B n,r + 6,r +K <6r ,T+TTTTT 13L+@L+1L +' ,'r2/(8 rrAr$ r<> <# B2r7)C='"> 3*n;/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0 @>1>@>1=@>1=@>1@@>1= 1rr3,331C3,3A113,3=C13,11A3,12?2 3,122@D3,C=F DE=+ E23F r3,12C=3,1>CA3,3C1A3,1C@93,19@93,3 =A>G3,@=1AH 2rr3,39C@3,?AA>3,11?>3,23=23,>93? 3,?AC9TTD1,9CF DE=+ E?3F r3,3??3,?>1C3,1=3C3,32323,29=13,>?3 1TG3,3=3CH ?rr3,?>>C3,?99C3,3AA93,2?2>3,@@@1 3,9AATTTD2,C@F DE=+ EA3F r3,19A93,?@?13,19A3,>?2?1,32121,223 TTTG3,333AH =rr3,21@A3,2@A23,39A93,21CC3,C=@13 ,9A13TTD2,22F DE=+ E123F r3,2C923,>2223,23?>3,??1=1,1?393,A= 1CTTG3,31>>H 12rr1,?33C3,C>C93,9C3>3,??293,@3213,A 9A=D1,>9F DE=+ E2@3F r3,3@=93,@2@3,323@3,@>?21,3?@93,9A9 G3,3A@=H 3#*';/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0 @>1>@>1=@>1=@>1=@>1@ 1rr3,>9113,1@CA3,3>9?3,33@>3,231?3 ,@92=TTTD>,=>F DE=+ E23F r3,@29?3,2@C=3,3@?@3,331@3,3=>93,@9> >TTTG3,3331H 2rr3,=C?C3,>@2=3,2>C>3,2>>A3,>9==1 ,3C1>TTTD?,>2F DE=+ E?3F r3,?A2?3,>=A23,1>A13,13AC3,2A9@3,CC1 9TTTGS,3331H ?rr3,>3A13,@@=93,2C=>3,2C>>3,?=213 ,CC3>TTD2,1?F DE=+ EA3F r3,A>=C3,@@>?3,>2?A3,11393,11A3,9@?C TTTG3,33A@H =rr3,>2=A3,?=>@3,1293,@3>A3,?9==3, A2>?TD1,A@F DE=+ E123F r3,A1?C3,?2AC3,1C323,AC?93,>@=>1,1C1 TTG3,312H 12rr1,9?@23,23@@1,31@A3,@>C?1,?2@>3, @199D3,C9F DE=+ E2@3F r3,12@23,AA3?3,39@21,?>C=3,?1==3,@?1 AG3,C?C?H

PAGE 79

C2 3*;/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0 @>1>@>11@>21@>1=@>1@ 1rr3,>1C>3,3C9?3,3A9=3,322>3,11=?3 ,?>>CTTTD2,=2F DE=+ E23F r3,>=923,213=3,11?A3,3>123,32193,>91 1TTTG3,33A?H 2rr3,CAC=3,>1?C3,2=@23,33@23,2=311, 3?CCTTTD?,22F DE=+ E?3F r3,@=9C3,?>C13,1?1A3,3@113,2@113,A23A TTTGS,3331H ?rr3,@?3C3,>2@A3,>>3C3,2@>?3,?9C91 ,3>A=TTTD2,ACF DE=+ EA3F r3,A2393,C@9?3,>9C23,2>=23,?1@=1,2>= @TTT3,3332 =rr3,29=A3,?>=93,2A==3,1?1?3,2>@23 ,@>2D1,2F DE=+ E123F r3,A>9=3,C>=?3,=?>=3,32?A3,>@1>1,1939 TT3,3?3> 12rr1,2@?13,C22=3,>9C13,>=A?1,>1213,3@ C9D3,39F DE=+ E2@3F r3,=?>?1,322>3,1=>A3,29?C3,19C23,A?3 =3,2C=? ? "+%rnrrrr2,?,>,10' r! '+' 6 r r r rr, r +,,+ rr' + ) ,:+ G1999H r'r + r r '' rr,+ 2,C 2,='' r r,290 +r!r + 29K6 r r '

PAGE 80

C> r r 2 ,C+' ' r +' r ,+*9 $rrrrr7 3rnrrn$r ;rnD?+=?5E )2%%n;r2r;-+!' 5rr' ',n' + ', rr rr 'r r,K +r 'r 7$nr rr rDE2+E@F, 5r ";K) r6' 0P (6 ,B n,r + 6,r +K <6r ,T+TTTTT 13L+@L+1L +' 'r2/(8 rrAr$ r<> <# B2r7)C='"> 3*n;/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0>C9A>A33>A33>A31>C99 1rr3,313>3,3@C13,3393,3A@3,12==3,1 >=9D3,C2F DE=+ E23F r3,13=93,3=1>3,3>113,1?2>3,1=2A3,3 @@9G3,@@=>H 0>3C@>3CC>3C@>3CA>3C? 2rr3,1@C?3,?1A13,3?1@3,221>3,>C@=3 ,@>>D1,=?F DE=+ E?3F r3,3CC>3,??C13,1@113,1A?>3,1@1?3,22 ACG3,1@C=H 0219C223121992231219A ?rr3,>2@?3,=C@23,@>AA3,32A@3,31123, >>=@D3,=F DE=+ EA3F r3,3A993,@>>23,>31?3,>>3=3,?A2@3,>9 2=G3,2@>=H 01C=?1CC31C=91CC31C=A =rr3,=23=3,C9AA3,C?=?3,3A>3,@>A@1, 1@91D1,@F DE=+ E123F r3,3=1>3,=A9@3,2>?93,?3?@1,2>11,292> TG3,39>=H

PAGE 81

C? 3#*';/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0>C9C>A31>A33>A31>C99 1rr3,>=A93,12@=3,3?@?3,31=A3,2CAA3,= ?CATTTD>,>CF DE=+ E23F r3,=3C?3,2>@3,32=C3,31>@3,1=AC3,CC=1TT TG3,3331H 0>3C?>3CA>3C@>3CA>3C? 2rr3,A??=3,3A1@3,21?=3,1C223,?9=C1 ,>?1>TTTD?,1AF DE=+ E?3F r3,=2>93,191?3,23393,1?313,>12>3,9>= 2TTTGS,3331H 0219C223121992231219A ?rr3,A31@3,13113,31>23,>C?93,C?@C1, @?C>TTTD2,CCF DE=+ EA3F r1,2A=3,2?2?3,322@3,13C>3,@1=21,A322TT TG3,332H 01C=?1CC31C=91CC31C=A =rr3,31?=3,AA3A3,1=C3,2=?23,9>A?3,9 @>D1,2@F DE=+ E123F r1,?>221,3@CC3,3?>13,CA9A3,A2>?2,2@@ =TTG3,3>1AH 3*;/1 G0 H /2/>/?/@ G0%H /@/1DF GK < #' H 0>C9C>A32>C99>A31>C99 1rr3,>1>@3,33C?3,139=3,3>C=3,22?@3,@ >A3TTTD2,C=F DE=+ E23F r3,>2>A3,1C>=3,3A?23,331=3,3?A?3,>C22 TTT3,33?= 0>3C?>3C9>3C?>3C9>3C> 2rr3,C93A3,1>3?3,23C13,39CA3,21?1,3 3?ATTTD>,1>F DE=+ E?3F r3,=1113,?1??3,3=1C3,3C@3,1@>=3,C=?C TTT3,333= 0219C223121992231219A ?rr3,C>213,?=3A3,3CA3,2?>?3,>1321,3? 2>TD1,ACF DE=+ EA3F r1,1?A@3,1?23,3?3A3,19?>3,22CC1,>C=2T T3,32? 01C=?1CC11C=A1CC31C=A =rr3,=C1?1,3?>C3,2A313,?@2>3,>3213, 9C>@D1,2CF DE=+ E123F r1,?13?3,>>@C3,1@A23,9>93,12@=1,@>=T 3,3=1@ 2,?,>,2$5'
PAGE 82

C@ r ,n 2,A+ 6<' '',K' rr r '''+ '<' r' GrH,-'+r r '',+ <

PAGE 83

C= +*:$rrrrr7 3rnrrn$r nrr$2rr ;nD?+=?5Err r r 'r r,'+ + ',K' + r 7$n rr rDE2+E@F, 5r ";K) r6' 0P (6 ,B n,r + 6,r +K <6r ,T+TTTTT 13L+@L+1L +' ,'r2/(8 rrAr$ r<> <# B2r7)C='"> 3*n3r2$2rr%74)8#nG!nG> DE=+ E23F DE=+ E?3F DE=+ EA3F DE=+ E123F DE=+ E2@3F : /1G0 H 2?@=3,C2?3,CC3C1,1?991,>@>=2,=A@C /@ G0H 2?@=3,>9?3,=>@@3,A@C23,C3=22,2C= /@/13,>>3,1>@23,292C3,=?C>3,?39C DFD1,?2FD3,>9FD3,@CFD1,32FD3,?>FGK < H 3,1C9A3,C??C3,>2313,>1A?3,?2A@ (r/1 G0 H 2?@=3,2993,>123,=1313,C3C>2,@C?1 /@ G0H 2?@=3,C2=>1,3@3C1,19311,21=12,1?=2 /@/13,?2C>T3,C>ACTT3,@A3,@3AC3,?2C9 DFD1,A?FD2,11FD1,1>FD3,C9FD3,?@FGK < H 3,3?3>3,13=C3,2>A13,2AC@3,C3>? r /1 G0 H 2?@=3,?>C=3,@1@13,=@321,>?@@2,=@21 /@ G0H 2?@=3,?@@=3,=>A>3,A=3C3,?@>?1,C=@? /@/13,31A3,12>23,213=3,A923,AA== DFD3,3AFD3,>@FD3,?FD1,>AFD3,91FGK < H 3,C1>>3,@=23,??3,@12@3,9291

PAGE 84

CC 3#*n)n2$2rr%74)8#nG!nG> DE=+E23FDE=+E?3FDE=+EA3FDE=+ E123F DE=+ E2@3F : /1G0 H 2C?13,=19@3,=>1C3,1C@=3,@@3,A??C /@ G0H 2C??3,=1191,>=@91,AAA>2,129>1,1139 /@/13,33C=3,C>?2TT1,C12=TTT1,@C92TT1,9@ @=TT DFD3,3>FD2,3CFD>,>?FD2,@FD2,1CFGK < H 3,A>AA3,3>123,33313,33?=3,32A? (r/1 G0 H 2C?13,AA==1,?@CA1,11==1,11?91,??3C /@ G0H 2C??3,1=CC3,13=A3,3=9A3,33911,1?A> /@/13,C1A9TTT1,>@13TTT1,3?=ATT1,13@9T3,292 ? DFD>,1FD>,A1FD2,3?FD1,C=FD3,>2FGK < H 3,333CS,33313,31393,319=3,A229 r /1 G0 H 2C?13,9>9C1,A39=1,>A1A1,?CC13,3?>? /@ G0H 2C??3,1>A>3,3=>A3,22@?3,2=C91,1?1? /@/13,A31?TTT1,C?@ATTT1,=3C2TTT1,C?@3TTT1,1 A?A DFD>,?2FD?,9AFD>,1?FD2,A2FD1,2CFGK < H 3,3331S,33313,33313,333A3,3C>@! ? "+rrrrn+r6 r r +r ";K ) G:5M";KH6'' DE=+EF* ! ! 0'!! 0'!! 0#.*0 # n n n n n $ n r r r r r r r r n 'r 'GnB1H+ r ''' rr

PAGE 85

CA 5,n 6 +H' '', r 6 +r 6',

PAGE 86

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