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Cocoa Beach study technical memorandum #2: potential transit options

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Cocoa Beach study technical memorandum #2: potential transit options
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University of South Florida. Center for Urban Transportation Research
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Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR)
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Transportation--Florida--Cocoa Beach--Planning   ( lcsh )
Traffic congestion--Florida--Cocoa Beach   ( lcsh )
Urban transportation--Florida--Cocoa Beach--Planning   ( lcsh )
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letter   ( marcgt )

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COCOA BEACH STUDY Technical Memo randum #2: Poten tia l Transit Options By: Center for Urban Transportation Research College of Engineering University of South Florida October 1993

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FOREWORD As part of the Center for U rban Transportation Research's (CUTR) commitment to provide technical suppon and research assistance t o local government s to address mobility problems, CUTR is providing assistance to the City of Cocoa Beach in developing a transit solution to t he mobility problems along SR AlA. This memorandum (Technical Memorandum #2) was prepared to review the potential transi t options that may lend themselves to mitigate the traffic problems in the Cocoa Beach area. The following CUTR staff assisted in the research and preparation of this technical memorandum. CUTR Director: Project Director: Project Manager: Staff Support: Gary L Brosch Steven E. Polzin, P.E., Ph.D, Deputy Director For Policy Analysis Eric T. Hill, Research Associate Edward Mierzejewski, P.E., Deputy Director for Transportation Engineering

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Lis t of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . m List of Figures ... : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . m L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Ii. INTROD UCTION .................. ................... ........ 2 III. BACKGROUND OF STUDY .... ................................ 3 IV. TRANSIT OPTIONS ............... ............ ................ 4 a. Exp res s Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 b. Vanpools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 c. Local Fixed-Route Service .................................. 20 d. Service Routes" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 e. Coordinated Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 V. IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS .................. ....... 31 VI. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 .. II

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LIST OF TABLES Tab l e 1 VPSI V anpool P rogram .. .. ...... .... .... ........ . . 7 Tabl e 2. AlA Vehicle Counts ...... ... ....... ............. ..... 9 Table 3. Central/North Mainland Market Size . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Tab l e 4. Express Bus for Central/North Mainland . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Table 5. Cost Es timate o f E xpress Bus Service using Cost per Revenue Hour for Central/North Mainland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Tab le 6. South Beaches Market Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tab le 7 Express Bus Service for South Beaches . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Table 8. Cost Estimate of Express Bus Service using Cost p er Revenue Hour for Sou t h Beaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Tab le 9. Express Bus for Patrick Air Force Base .. ... .......... ........ 17 T abl e 10. Cost Est imate of Expre ss Bus Service using Cost per Rev e nue Hour f o r Patr ick Air Fo rce Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Table 11. Estimate of Fixed -Route Ridership ........................... 26 Table 12. Cost Estimate of Fixed-Route Ridership .................. ..... 28 Ill

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UST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Brevard County Zip Codes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 2. Proposed Express Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 3. Proposed Fixed-Route . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 4. Direct Demand Estimation for Fixed-Route . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 5. Headway Factor D i rect Demand Estimation 2< .J Figure 6 Cu r rent Fixed-Route in Cocoa Beach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 IV

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For many years the citizens of Cocoa Beach h ave expressed concerns about the traffic congestion along State Road AlA and the unacceptable impac t i t has on t h e safety, welfare and quality of l i fe for residents and visitors The tra ffic conge st io n affecting Cocoa Beach is mu l ti-faceted. The present t ransportat ion system, mainly AlA, provides service capacity to accommodate local traffic volumes d urin g non-t o u r ist seaso n However, ad d itional demands are placed on the system by throug h traffic generated by the l a rge employment sites th at are lo cated in this part of Brevard County and by t he seasonal influx of visitors and tourists. At the request of the Brevard County Legisla tiv e Deleg ation the Cent e r for U rba n T r ansportation R esear ch (CUTR) is assisti n g Cocoa Beach in developing a solution to t he mobility problems on AlA The goal of this study is to d eve lop a transi t alternative i n the Cocoa Beach a re a that provides servic e that is good, e f ficient, and reasonable. The study culntinated in two Technical Me m o r a nd a In Technical Memo ra ndum # 1 information related to potential tra ns it usag e by citi zens in t he Cocoa Beach area is pre s ented. This i n cludes dat a on existing t ran s it service, 1990 Census informat i on, and data on emp lo yment in the area. This informat i on is critical in the analysis of potential transit alternatives In Technical Memorandum #2, the transit alternatives worthy of consideration are evaluated. The optio n s tha t h ave b ee n i dentified inc lu de: exp r ess bus service; fixed-route service; "Service Ro utes," which is simila r to fixed-route but travel t o areas o f particula r interest to elderly and disabled CitiZens ; and a com b ination o f a fixed-route and "Serv ic e Route." The potential ridership and cost c ons ide rations for e ach of the tran s it a l ternatives are also presented in Technical Memor a ndum #2. Aspects related to implement in g each option (i.e., marketing, coordination, and scheduli n g) are g i ven consideration. This Tech ni cal Memorandum concludes with some add itional observations on the feasibility of imp l ementing transit in the Cocoa Beach a r ea. 1

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INTRODUCfiON This Technical Memorandum provides a brie f overview of the pu r pose of this study. The motivation for evaluating transit as an option to mitigate t raffic congestion along State Road AlA (AlA) in Coc()a Beach is reviewed. T r ansit options that provid e potential to alleviate the traffic problems along AlA and meet transportation demands in the Cocoa Beach area are presented. Each of these service options is presented with a description of the methodology u sed in the analysis of its potential to meet travel demands in the study area. This is followed by an assessm e nt of ridership and cost considerations. Finally, aspects related to implementing each option (i.e. marketing coordination and scheduling) are considered. The transit options that are presented i n this documen t have been developed based on the information presented i n Technical Memorand um #1: Review of Existing Services. This included: information related to transit use in the Cocoa Beach area, data on the existing transit services provided by Space Coast Area T rans it (SCAT), data from the 1 990 Census, information o n employment in the study area, employee zip code information, and an analysis of a survey of Cape Canaveral residents to determine thei r interest in transit. CU1R representat i ves have made site visits t o the study area and met with l o cal t ransit officials including the Brevard County Metropolitan Planning Organizat ion. Separate meetings were also held with the city managers for Cocoa Beach and Cape Canav e ral. 2

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BACKGROliND OF STUDY Traffic congestion on SR AlA in Cocoa Beach is unique. Wnile AlA provides service capacity to accommodate loca l traffic volumes during non-tourist season, additional traffic demands are being placed on this roadway by through traffic generated by the la rge employment sites located in this part of Brevard County and by the seasonal influx of visitors and to urists High peak hour traffic volumes and spill-over into off peak traffic, impede local traffic circulation. A significant amount of pedestrian and vehicle traffic in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral consists of visitors vacationers and elderly residents. Accessing the local retail and commercial sites along AlA, as well as the recreation al facilities and the beach, has evolved into a challengin g exercise. Many of these residents believe that the quality of life in this community and their ability to travel freely has suffered as a result of the traffic congestion. The City of Cocoa Beach \vith t he Brevard County Metropolitan Planning Organization (BMPO), has decided to explore the possibility that a transit alternative can help to mitiga t e the traffic problems on AlA. CUTR, at the request of a Brevard Coun ty Legislative Delegation, is providing assistance to Cocoa Beach in developing a solution to the mobility problems on AlA. This study evaluates the transportation demands in the corridor and review the potential of public transit as an option for meeting community transpo rtation needs. The goal of this study is to develop a transit alternative for the Cocoa Beach area that provides quality service that is efficient and attractive. This service should complement the other transportation goals of the area. Beyond that, it should be effective at reducing traffic produced by work trips through the area, and it should p rovide mobility for area residents. This goal dovetails \vith the concerns expressed by residents in the area. This document provides ideas and information for consideration by administrators, the public, and decision makers in Brevard County. The document does not give specific recommendations, nor does it describe options to the level of detail required for imple mentation. However it should stimulate discussions and encourage progress in having transit play a more proactive role in meeting community travel and quality of life goals. 3

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TRANSIT OPTIONS In developing a transit alternative to traffic congest ion in Cocoa Beach, consideration was given to the present trans portation system, mainly AlA, which provides service for two diffe rent purposes, commute and local trips. The commute market, consists mainly of employees of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Nat i onal Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and possible commuters to employment sites in Cocoa Beach and Patrick Air Force Base. The local market consis t of local res ide nts and visitors making trips within the study area. This includes trip s to commercial and ret ail locations act ivity centers, and health facilities. Getting commuters and l ocal drivers out of single occupancy vehicles and into transit can substantially reduce both the number of vehicles traveling to major work sites and th e leve l of traffic congestion. Based on a stra ight forward analysis of each market, various transi t alternatives were identifi ed Each option provides the potential to mit igate some traffic congestion caused by the commuter market and improve mobility for the loca l market. The following tra nsit options were identified. Express service Vanpools Local fixed -route service "Service Routes" Coordinated service Except for vanpools, each of these service options are di scusse d in the f o llowing sections with a description of the methodology used to estimate ridership and costs. Those aspects related to implementing each option (i.e. routing, coordination, and scheduling) are also addressed. 4

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Express Service Express bus service is operated during peak hours for work trips, which are often more than 7 miles long. Generally, the peak per i o d will consist of two hours in the morning and two hours in the afternoon. Express bus service operates locally in suburbs and then uses arterials and freeways for fast, non-s top travel into the Central Business District (CBD). For this study, express bus service would be provided to KSC/N ASA and Patrick Air F orce Base. Passengers board and alight express buses at designated collection points along the arterial, usually at park and r ide lOts. Most tran s it systems that operate express bus service normally use 40-foot buses that have the capacity to carry approximately 43 seated passengers per tri p. Four sets of data were used in the development of express bus se rvice for commuters, employee zip code data, census journey to work data, VPSI vanpool data, and vehicle counts for AlA KSC/NASA related employment numbers over 20,000 employees. The data compiled in Technical Memorandum #1 on employee zip codes included responses from 2,984 employees at the KSC/NASA. The results of the survey also show that a majority of these employees, approximately 53 percent, reside in the communities on the mainland. This area is commonly refereed to as the Central and North Mainland, including the communities of Mirns and Titusville (see Figure 1). A moderate number (15%) ofthese employees also live in the zip codes for Merritt Island. A possible express b\IS route tha t could serve the e m p loyees i n this area as an alternative to driving, is one of three routes shown in Figure 2. This route would provide non-stop service from designated park and ride lots along SR 520 to the various work sites locaied at the KSC/NASA. A possible location for b eginning this route is the intersection at US 95 and SR 520. Potential locations for stops include the intersection at US 1 and US 95, and near the intersection of SR 520 and SR 3, Merritt Plaza or Merritt Island Square Mall. This route would access the KSC/NASA using SR 3. Data on the origin, destination, and routes for vanpools operated by VPSI were evaluated (see T ab le 1). The data shows that only a few vanpools use AlA, and have the KSC/NASA as a destination; t hese vans originate in the South Beach area. The larger share (63%) of the vans originate in the Central, No r th, and South Mainland areas. These 5

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North Mainland Central Mainland FIGURE 1 Brevard County Zip Codes 6 Cape Canaveral Coco& Beach Patrick AlB s..t. IJ. South Beaches CUTR

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vans use alternate routes, such as, 195, US1 /SR3, US1/SR 4 05/SR3, US1/SR5 28, SRS28, a n d SRS0/405 to access t h e KSC/NASA facility. T able 1 VPSI Vaupool Provam : :Va.D.s > . 3 S Beaches KSC AlA 1 S. Be a ches Titusville 3 S. Mainland KSC 14 S. Mainland KSC 1 95 3 S. Mainland CCAFS l S Mainland CCAFS 1 C Mainland CCAFS l C Mainlan d KSC 1 N Mainland CCAFS 1 N M ainland KSC 4 Orland o KSC 1 O r lando KSC 3 Volusia KSC 2 T itusville Viera 195 Sour
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Mims Titusville FIGURE2 Proposed Expre ss Routes !Wmedy Spce Cen ter ,..----, US IS Cocoa Bee.ch Patrielc AYB 8 ----Ceottoi...S Nri .. PoaidtA:f.B. CUTR

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This inference is further supported by vehicle counts in Cocoa Beach. These counts were included in FOOT's Corridor Study for A1A1 Vehicle counts for the AM and P M peak periods are shown in Table 2. This traffic volume information was taken from machine counts located at two intersections: AlA and North 2 n d Street; and AlA and Flagler Lane. Table 2 Veblcle Counts for AlA N 2nd St. Flagler Lane AM Peak 2,029 1,145 2,866 1,324 PM Peak 3,088 4,173 4,101 5,182 This data suggest that not only are commuters from the South Beach area using AlA, but that a significa n t n umber of trips are generated in Cocoa Beach during peak ho urs. Additionally, vehicle counts show that a meaningful number of trips are made in the southbound (SB) direction during the A .M. peak, and in the northbound (NB) direct i on during the P.M. peak. Although the employment size at the Patrick Air Force Base is unknown, it is conceivable that workers commuting to this employment site account for a representative share of these trips. The est i mated number of commute trips to the Patrick Air Force Base is calculated using the difference in the north and south bound vehicle counts recorded during the AM peak at N. 2nd St., and the corresponding vehicle counts for the PM peak at Flagler I..ane.2 The difference in the SB and NB vehicle counts at these locations are 884 and 1,081, respectively, an average of 983 commute trips daily The vehicle counts also suggest that these commute trips originate in the Merritt Island, and the Central and North Mainland areas of Brevard County, and not in Cocoa Beach. Thus, employees at the Patrick Air Force Base portray yet another commuter market that im p ac t s 1FDOT. Corridor Op
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on traffic in Cocoa Beach, and may be attracted to exp ress bus service. A poss i ble express bus route to serve these commuters is also shown in Figur e 2. This route would begin at the intersect ion of US 95 and SR 520, and use SR 3 and the Pineda Causeway to access t he Patrick Air Force Base. 10

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Methodology Experience and judgment are employed t o predict rider s hi p for express bus service. The estimate is made at the route level. This technique is one of several used in the transit industry to estimate ridership resulting from the implement a tion of a proposed route. Other ridersh i p demand methods that base results on "similar rou te" data, on population within 1/4 mile of the route, and on the output of regression models based on cross-sectional data were also considered for this analysis. Since there is no express bus service operating in Brevard County and the service that is being proposed will operate along an arterial with designated collec tion points, these methods were ihought less appropria t e for this analysis and required more time to apply. The judgmental approach rests on the premise t hat certain c h aracteristics of o r specific knowledge about the area where a proposed service will operate provide sufficient insight to make accurate predictions In the transit i n dustry, esti mates using the judgmental technique are made by individuals who have spent many years with a particular property (or at least in the transit profession) a n d thus have the knowledge on which to base such estimates.3 Application of Technique The input data used in the judgmental tech n ique depends entirely on the applicat ion. Through analysis of the mode choice for work trips taken in Brevard County, the zip code data for employees represented by the survey of KSC/NASA, commute tri p patterns . reflected by vanpools, and vehicle counts for AlA, it is possible to estimate the n umber of employees that might be attracted to express bus service. Thi s also may provide an estimate of the reduction in vehicle traffic on the local road network in Cocoa Beach. Information from the 1990 Cens us journey to work data show that in Brevard County approximately 81 percent of workers over the age of 16 drive alone to work. Approximately 3Uroan Mass Transportation Admi11istration. RQII!e-{. ,ve/ p,ma11d Models: A Review, Multisystems,Jnc. 1982. Page 12. 11

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13 percent of the workers use car f vanpools for work trips and l ess than 1 percent use t ransit. The remaining 5 percent either work at home walk, bicycle, or use other means to travel to work This trans l ates to an average v ehicl e occupa ncy (A YO) of 1.16 for work t rip purposes : Express Bus Route: #1 The number of employees represented by the CUTR s urvey is 2,984. Approximately 53 percent (or 1,582) of these employees reside i n the Central and Nor t h Mai nl a n d areas of Brevard County. This re presents th ose wor ke r s who drive t o work alone and ca r jvanpool and compose the pot ential ma r ke t for express b us service It would not be re asonab l e to include the r emaining share of workers, especially since walki ng or bicycling are mode choices for trave ling s hort d is ta nces. Thi s sample of workers were expan ded to reflect total employment. Data provided in Tec h nical Memorand u m #1 showe d that KSC/ NASA re l ated employment numbers over 20 000 employees. Whe n calculated thi s process results in approximately 10,601 w o r kers living in the Ce nt ral and N orth Mainland areas. This rep re sents th e potent i al ma r ket size and equals approximate l y 9,139 vehicle trips (see Tabl e 3). 1,582 Table 3 Central/North Mainland Ma r kel Size 1.16 9,139 I t is possible to develop a reas o nable sc enar io of what ride rship levels might be based on tra ditional transit market share exper ien ces. Natio n ally transit carries approximate l y 2 percent of person trips and approxima te ly S percent of work trips (7.62% in urbanized 4AVO s %drivers + %J?asseaKrs = 81% + 13% d 1.16 o/cdrivers 81% 12

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areas). Florida numbers are l ower d u e to the lower densiti es, l ess concentrated employment and l ower levels of transit service A quality express bus service mig ht be expec te d to attract mode shares in the ra n ge o f a few p ercent to in excess of five percen t For conceptual planning purpose s i t i s r ecomme n ded t hat service b e designed to acco nun oda t e a 5 percent mode shar e ride rship targe t. Table 4 provides an estimate of the express bu s mar ke t poten tial. These esti m ates assume a market si z e of 10,601 person trips pe r day and 9,139 veh i cle t rips. Bus capacity is a l so assu me d a t 80 percent w hi c h r epr e sents app r oximately 34 seated passengers per bus. Tabl e 4 Express Bus for North and Cen t ra l Mainland 1< .,,.: '. ; ' -' ,,,.. 1: ., :; ... > > 'f>'t #-'BusM < A #?'Vehieles<. ),q j f;.< O Dill:t . rKc ........ di"'"' I t'rii\s-frti>eai? J }94. arne ><* t r ... :. tf Minut e s J <:; . ....,.,.,. ... ""'"""' %1Eiai?Wa'l' : ..... . Y"'t., >< oa "'"'"'4" .-w.....<-j ,!I.'S. ... .. '/!-14 < ""' :f '< v_, ... ,v-yv OStf? ,. .. : " ... ', -v . ,_ ""' >' /); ' . .... 5% 530 45 7 1 6 10 8 768 $906 $228,372 Section lS Repon for SCAt' shO"Ved cost pc:r revenue m i le at SUS. !'l'les 2 hQU.r peale period I n AM an4 PM. The c o st per revenue mi l e that i s u s ed in this analy s i s r eflects systemwide cost, but t raditionally t h e cost per revenue mile for express b u s service i s l e s s than other conventional transit service such as fixed-route serv ice This is beca u se express r outes have higher ope r a t i n g sp e eds and require less operating time t o complet e a trip In most t r ansit systems a premium fare is c h arged to passengers using this service, providing a higher r eturn at the fare b o x . In addition to th e abo v e cost estimate using cost per revenue mile an annual operating cost estimate can be determined for express b u s service by relating operati n g co st per revenu e hour to annua l reven u e hours. Thi s is accomp l ished using operating cost per revenue hou r from the 199 1 Section 15 report for SCAT and the t otal r evenue vehicle hou r s for the propo sed service. The cost estimate model for th i s analysis is presen te d below; the est i mate is shown in Table 5. 13

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where C crh r evhr dpm mpy C = crh revhr dpm mpy =Cost = cost per revenue hour = revenue hours = days per month = months per year TABLES Cost Estimate of Express Bus Service Using Cost per Vehicle Revenue Hour h,..._.., ;....,z; _..._ ... ; .-.. .... ..... .- '''} )( a ue., & /. ,, ,,...,. .... ,,_._' ., Cost per revenue hour' $25.31 Revenue bours2 6 Days per monthl 21 Months per year 1 2 Number of buses required 10 ; .. .;.)J,._ 4.J -.;_' "t ; . .. v <:: '(;-... '<")" "' .. ,,, <,:. ,: : . . ...... ". 11991 Sec:t ion 15 Repon f or SCAT co;t pcor mil e at $21.86; this figure v.oas (JCIOred up at S% per year ror 3 yc.art. lservi<:e ..-ill consist of twO boun in the morning and tQ.o hours i n the af ternoon. dead-head and travel times wiU result in approximately 3 hours of opcrac on tabor pet periOd. 3Ass:umesllworklng days: a month. Express Bus Route: #2 Continuing the inference about va n pools routes being reflective of commuting patte rn s i n Brevard County, a possible scenario can be developed for predic t ing e x press bus r i dership to t h e KSC/NASA from the South Beach area. Data from the 1990 Census show t hat KSC/NASA employment was approximately 11 percent of B reva r d County employment. When applied to the number of wo r kers in t he South Beach area, assuming that employment is uniformly spread throughout the county, this process results in approximate market size of 2,496. This potential market is represented i n Tab l e 6 A ridership and cos t 14

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estimation of this express bus market potential is provided i n Table 7 It ass umes a 5 percent mode share that eq u als approximately 125 people and bus capaciry at 80 p erce nt. ">YY" :f': -::. Ratio o( ;:?(>jt:$' 11% Table 6 South Beaches Market Size ;...;.v --y; 2,152 240 $283 S71,366 Since this route will operate approximately 4 hours each weekday a nd have the same hourly cost as express bus option #1, an annual cost estimate for this service, using o perati ng cost per revenue hour i s calculated in Table 8 15

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Option #3 TABLE 8 Cost Estimate or Express Bus &,.,ice Using Cost pet' Veh i cle Revenue Hour : :;;;<:i.' ., .. -.... .. ,. ,,p . ,,: '-. ... A;. t'l-. j . ?;,;:'_ '\_ . tf' .. ;-" ,._ --"'.: : -, }>{'.f'; t ; .. :bi; ;. ,; ?; ,.J:, *''-, W "'-" ' ,....,A .... < .<(!} >, '<> ,. ., A .. As discussed previously, the data on vehicle counts in Cocoa Beach suggested that the employment at the Patrick Air Force Base accounts for approximately 984 commuters each day that use AlA to travel to this employment site. Assuming a mode share of 5 percent, produces a potential ridership market of 49 people. Table 9 provides a ridership and cost projection for an express bus route to serve this commute market. Again, b u s capacity is assumed at 80 percent. Similar to express bus option #2, an annual cost estimation, usi ng operating cost per vehicle revenue hour is shown in Table 10. 16

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Table 9 Express Bus for Patrick Air Forc e Bas e .. 'iJ .., ; ;, : ode,,,; if_ People ... ,, # Vehicles # of Bus Frequeney .. C'""" ""o\J>/ Jarne '!": ;J. 'vv ._ '? f Rhad J ... P. : ., : -""} ,,, ;,;: . .. i(Eich ?t; rPf :>._f.:'V '.f ,.;;; .. ;'$-"?4 % 49 42 1 1 NA xSmately 2S mi\!;S etion 15 Repon for SCAT showed cost per rtven u e m ile a1 $1.18. c:s 2 p <' .... l> ,,.;. .,.,.,,, .. ; 50 S59 $14,868 S25.31 6 21 12 Several factors influence express bus r i dership making it very difficult to estimate demand i n advance of detailed specification of the service and analysis of the market. In addition to the typical factors such at density of reside n tial areas, density of destination area, concentration of employment at a g i ven facility, and socio-economic characteristics of travelers; there a r e a number of other conside r ation such as location of park and ride lots, incentives by employers, service speed, frequency, reliabil ity, fare on-time performance, and marketing of service that will affect ridersh i p leve l s Accordingly, if is difficult to speculate on demand at this time, This is a gross l evel estimate of the impact t hat express bus service will have on employees rep r es e nted by t he survey and commuters to t he KSC/NASA area. Tables 1 and 2 provide 17

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a cost estimate range for express bus service. However, before an bus service is initiated, a detailed journey-to-work ana lysis and service p l an i s advised. This i s a relatively inexpensive process and will prov ide additional insight into ride r ship potential. F inally, a detailed cost es t imate based upon the s ervic e plan details should be prepared by SCAT officials. This would look i n more detail at sites for Park-n-Ride sch edules staffing, wor k ru les vehicle operating costs, marketing cost, etc. 18

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Vanpools Vanpoo ls are privately or publicly provided vans (8 t o 1 8 seats) transporting groups of p ersons to and from work on a regular basis. While vanpools typically have lower unit t rans portation cost and space occ upancy, and are gene r ally more socially desirab le than other modes of public transpor tatio n, they require a more formal organization for vehicle purchase, maintenance, driving, insurance, and so on. Data provided in Technical Memo randum #1 and this documen t, shows that several vanpoo ls are already operating in Brevard County t o th e KSC/ NA SA, and to other employment sites in the county The s uccess of these vanpool programs as well as the commu ter markets that have been identified in t he express bus options, suggest th at additional vanpools may also provide relief to the t raffic congestio n in Cocoa Beach. Vanpools may be deve loped using route alignments and market areas simila r to those discussed under the express bus options. To bring this option to fruition will require coordination between the SCAT, employers at KSC/NASA and in Cocoa Beach, a n d the Patrick Air Force Base, to determine the appropriate number of vanpools and to identify participants, as well as cos t. 1 9

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Local Fixed-Route Fixed route service is appropriate where a corridor of heavy demand exists. Service is usually operated on a fixed schedule or at fixed intervals. In small communities, a fiXed route serves a major attraction (employment or shopping) at one end, and connects a corridor well developed with residences and minor attraction areas. For this analysis, the corridor in the study area is defined as AlA as it traverses Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Figu re 3 s hows the configuration of a bidirectio na l fixed ro ute that would serve as an alternative to driving for local re sidents and be comb ined with existing service operating on the mainland. This fixed-route could provide service for two mar k ets in the study area. First, local residents (retirees) would have transit service operating during the day and part of the evening. providing the mobility needed by this group. Census data for the tracts in the study area were analyzed in Technical Memorandum #1. The age category show that the population aged 65 or old e r is approxima tely 21 percent of the total population. This group is typically considered transi t depende nt. Second, the survey of employee zip codes in Technical Memorandum #1 showed that several of the hotel/motel employees in the study a rea reside within Cocoa Beach or Cape Canaveral. The data showed that approxim ately 38 percent of these em ployees have household incomes that are l es s than $10,000 and 89 percent have household incomes that are less than $19,000. TypiCally, peopl e who use transit are in the lower-middle to lower income brackets. This suggest that hotel/motel employees may be attracted to traru?it not only as an alternative to driving, but may view transi t as the most desirabl e choice. 20

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FIGURE 3 Propos e d Fixed-Route 1. "" 1> t Cape canaveral J SRS20 <( ..-<( J ---+-' 8-.i oaf Cocoa Beach 13th St. ... Atlantic Ocean sow . .... CUTR

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Methodology The D ire ct T rans it Riders hi p Estimation Method is applied t o th e analysis of a fixed-route alternative in the study area. This method is commonly used by planners to estimate t ransit ridership and requires limited data and time to perform an e s timation analysis This techniqu e allows the user to develop ridership estimates one of two w ays : (1) estimate the number of dwelling units with in the 1/4mile service area of the route or (2) estimate the total population and population aged 65 years or older within t he 1/4mile service area of th e route. Various c har acteris t ics of the study area make t h is technique espec i ally sui table for this analysis, especially if the population within 1/4-mile of the s ervice area is used to estimate ridership. The area of the bar rier isla nd on which Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral a r e located, and thus the service area for a fixed-route, has a maximum east-west w idth of approximately one mi l e A predomi n ant portio n of the service area under consideration is within 1/4-mi l e of the proposed rou te. Ce n sus data on population, and population aged 65 years or older within this 1/4-mile area i s p ro vided in Technical Memorandum #1. Approximately 21 percent o f the popu l ation in t he study area i s aged 65 years or qlder. Application of T ech nique App licatio n of thi s techniqu e involves the following sequence of steps : (1) Estimation of the ridership is based on the use of a graph (See F igure 4). This graph illustrates the estimated demand fodixed-route r i dership as a function of the total populat ion and population aged 65 or older within 1/4mile of service area. In the study area, the total population and population aged 65 or older within 1/4-rnile of the service area is approximately 19,518 and 5,188, respectively. (2) Estimate h eadway factor for t h e propo s ed fixed-route. This factor is based on the premise that as bus service frequency increases, ridership increases. 22

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Empirical data has s h own t ha t r i dership is more sens itive to service fr eque ncy in p eak hou rs This i s b ecause of the proportion o f ride r s that need t o a rrive a t or l e ave work d u ring a specific time pe r i od. Two factors m ust be estimated t he level of service (LOS) during the peak and t h e LOS during the off-peak for Monday throug h F riday service T o obtai n the se two factors, the graph in Figure 5 i s used. (3) Estimate any transfer coo rdi nation fact o r f or the proposed fixed-route. A fa ct o r of 1.0 is us ed if trans fe r coo rd ination i s planned for the route 0 .80 i s u sed if no t ransfer coo rdin a tion is planned for the route ( 4) Estimate a weekend s e rvic e factor for the proposed fixedr o ute. A fa ct o r o f 0.90 i s u s e d f o r only Monday t hrou gh F r i day service 1.00 for Mo nday throu gh Sat urday service, a nd 1.04 for Monday th rough S u nday service. 23

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The Direct Transit Ridership Es tim a t io n Meth od applied in th is a n alysis of fixedr oute ri de rship culmi n ated in t he follow ing e qu ation: where TARP bar hf phf tf wsf T ARP = b a r hf phf tf wsf = Total Annual Revenue Passengers = base annual ridership = headway f ac t o r = peak headway factor = tra n sfer factor = weekend service fa ctor Estimate d r i dership for t he p r oposed fixedrou te in Coc o a Beach and Cape Canaveral is shown in Table 11. TABLE 11 Estimate o f Fixed-Route Ridership Population and population aged 65 or older in of serviee area Peak Base Service bar tl' beadway at the 24,706 60 120 Yes 230,000 05 0.57 1.00 1.04 is anticipated that transf'er coordination will be made with exist i ng sc_-"ice on the mainland.. Approximate average VlCtlt day riders.hip of 187. 26

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In terms of cost considerations, typically the cost per mile of operating fixed-route service is higher than the costs associated with an express bus rou te. Fixed-route service can require several stops. The operating speed for fixed-route serv ice is less than express bus service and the average auto speed due to the s tops for pici..'Up and delivery o f passengers. The additional running time that is needed to meet this type of travel demand causes many costs to occur. Additionally, fixed-route service is characterized by higher cost per vehicle mile and hour, higher cost per passenger mile, and a lower return at the farebox. An annual cost estimate for operating the proposed fixed-route service, can be developed using 1991 Section 15 report data for SCAT. This information was i ncluded in the Trend Analysis section of Technica l Memorandum #1. A cost estimate can be accomplished by relating operating cost per revenue hour for SCAT service to t he level of service, or annual operating hours for the proposed fixed-route service. The cost estimate model for this analysis is presented below. C = crh revhr d w where C = Cost crh = cost per revenue hour revhr = revenue hours d = days per week w = weeks per year Cost estimate for the proposed fixed-route in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is shown in Table 12. 27

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TABL E 12 Cost Estimate or F ixed Route !Udership Cost per revenue bour1 Reveoue hours: raet o rW u p a t 5% per year for 3 years. lsCAT opc:ates transit sef'\ice from 6:00a m t o 6:30p.m. COSt refle cts transit service 365 days a )'ea r '";, :value-< .. :. $2531 12 This analysis provides a n annua l i zed cost est imat e for proposed fixe d -r oute serv i ce i n Cocoa Beach and Cape Canav e r al A d etai l e d cos t e stima te i s r ecommended and should be p repare d by SCA T officials before implement ing this service op tion Thi s s houl d i ncl u de an estimate of the number of vehicles needed to operate this s ervice, number o f drive rs, and operati ng time ( e.g. runni n g time) t o com p le t e a t r i p. 28

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"Service Routes "Service Routes," are similar to fixed-routes in that they follow a regular bus route and schedule but travel to areas of particu lar i nterest to the elderly and people with disabilities. These include retirement homes, community centers, medical facilities, shopping centers (malls), and supermarkets. This concept originated in Sweden, where planning efforts have b een made to reduce the cost of paratransit service by developi n g alternative modes of transit. A transit service based on this concept called "Local Motion" is currently operating in Mad i son, Wisconsin. While this concept is a divergence from the rigidity usually associated with fixed-route service it is worthy of consideration as a viable transit option in t he Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral area. The 1990 Cens u s data for the study a rea s how that approximately 21 percent of the residents in the study area are aged 65 or o l der. This is the transit market that "Service Routes" were developed to serve. A "Service Routes can be deve l oped using the rou te configuration i n the fixed-route option as a base. As proposed under the fixed route option the route will serve various shopping centers, libraries, municipal offices, post offices, and recreational centers in the study area and be used mostly for non-work trips. However, modifications to this route would be needed to accommodate travel to other locations that are of interest to this group of residents, i.e., places of worship or schools. An analys i s of the ridership projection for this transi t service opt i on wo uld duplicate the effor t s made in estimating demand for fixed-route service. While it is a separate alternative and focused on providing service to a select group of residents, service would still be provided to the public. The only. difference between the these two options is the addition of designated locations on the route. Also, the running time for this service option can be expected to increase thus, causing the cost to operate this service to be higher than the regular fixed-ro ute option. 29

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Coordinated Service Per hap s a so l ution using a best of both worlds" approach is needed in developing a s uitab l e trans it alternative in Cocoa Beach. This approach would comb i ne the fixed-route option with "Service Routes." During the peak hours of t b e day, from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. and from 4 :30p.m. to 6:30p.m., transit service would b e operat e d as proposed u nder the fixed route option. The "Service Route" concept w ould become operational during the off-peak hours of the day, providing service for local residents to make non-work trips. The coordinated service alternative attempts to provide service to meet the local market demands. Ope rating fixed-route service during limit ed hours of the day would meet the demand for wor k trips without the unnecessary travel to l ocations on a "Servic e Route." Similarly, operating a "Service Route" during a designated time allows the residents that would use this service t o p lan their trips more effectively. Interestingly, SCAT currently uses a similar arrangement to operate fixed-rou t e and demand-responsive services. SCAT vehicles are used to supplement the demand-respons i ve service that SCAT contracts to Coastal Transit, from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m .. The SCAT vehicles a r e convened into fixed route s ervice between the hours of 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. Estimation on ridership for this transit alternative is similar to the fixed-route option However, greater consideration should be given to th e cost to operate this service, since it represents two serv i ce typ e s. 30

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IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS To be successful, the transit options discussed in this Tec hnic al Memorandum will need to be vigorousl y mar ke t e d to insure public awareness and s up port. Depending on the t rans it opt ion, an effort will be needed to promote the s ervice in the community for work a nd no n work trips. For examp le, service to a medical center via the "Service Route" concept will be more efficient if the doctors and clinical service at the medical center are aware of t he service. The awareness will enco urage the scheduling of appointments fo r local residents so they can take adva n tage of this servi ce Simi larly, providing information to employee s a t t he KSC/NASA o n the benefits and cost savings o f using express bus service rather than driving will he lp to reduce traffic congestion in t he study a rea. Other opportunities for marketing t ransit service in the study area include : special promotions, suc h as periodic p r ize drawings and contest discounts from retail l oc ati o ns to patrons that use transit to make thei r tr ip ; trans it subsidies from employers to employees who use trans i t for work trips; provis ion of t ran sit inf ormation wi t h monthly u t ility b ill s to r esidents in the stud y area; and market i ng transit service to tourist and visitors via h o tel s in the area. In addition to the marketing considerations, and depending on the transit option, service will need to be coordinated and scheduled to meef t he travel demands of the various markets i n t he study area_ Express bu s tr ip s will need to be scheduled t o coinc ide wit h the work schedules of the e m p l oyees at the KSC/NASA. Coordination o f sched u le s a nd routing o f the fixedroute opt ion should meet work trip d em ands of local residents and provide easy transfers to transit service to the mainland The same coordination shou l d be cons i dered for the "Service Rou te" option. Additio n ally ho ur s of serv i ce for fixedroute a n d "Service Route" should begin and end at ti m e s that m ee t m ost of the travel demand in the st ud y area From an operational perspective the equipment used for the ftxed-route and "Service Route" options will have to be retrofitted or designed to accommodate the senior citizens in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Other passenger am enities will also be needed ( i.e., bus s t ops, shelters, passenger information, l anding pads, e t c ... ). 31

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ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS There are some additional observations that can be made about the feasibility of implement ing transit to mitigate traffic congestion in the Coco a Beach and Cape Canaver al. Government o fficia l s and community groups indic ated a willingnes s to consider transit. While there is a sha red perception t hat expanding the local transportation network is desirable, an alte rnat ive to additional lanes on AlA is preferred and strongly supported. Representatives from FDOT and SCAT support transit as more viable alternative to further expansion of AlA FDOT acknow ledges that financial support for tran si t in the study area is availab le via service enhancement fundi n g. Durin g th e initial phase of the study, interviews were conduc ted with the city managers of Cocoa Beach and cape canaveral. Both officials agreed that improvements are needed in the current tranSportation system, particularly for local residents and senior citizens. They support using transit as a solution to this issue a nd are willing to contrib ute funds to support a transit route in the area. From a community perspective, t he timin g is go od for establishing transit s ervice. The community is recep tive to alternative s to building additional lane s on AlA. This perspective is manifes ted in Cocoa Be ach Ad Hoc Advisory Committee, whic h was influ e ntial in getting FDOT to abandon its plans for widening AlA. Additionally, compla.ints about the traffiC'in Cocoa Beach have been complemented by requests for transit service. Po l itical support for a transit alternative was estab lished when the Brevard County Legislative Deleg atio n requested CUTR's inv o lvement in this study. Within the last year. SCA T bas esta blished ftxed-ro ute service in Cocoa Beach. This route is similar to the fixed-route that is being proposed in this Technical Me morandum (See F igure 6). The service is operated on Tuesday and Friday. This route aver ages approxima tely 37 passen gers daily. 32

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While several vanpools are operating to the KSC/NASA, t he data i ndica tes t hat the potential for establishing additional vanpools for commuters to this area is as viab l e as the express bus option. These additional considerations suggest that transit is indeed the most viabl e solu t ion to the traffic congestion issue i n Cocoa Beach. The level of community and political support for transit is an indication that i t can be an effective alternative. The development o f a fiXed route service in Cocoa Beach by SCAT is another indication of the effort to resolve the traffic is sue via a transit approach. While this research effort has provided conclusive evidence of the potential for transit alternatives, express and local bus service, to mitigate the traffic congestion in Cocoa Beach further eva l uation of the cost and ride rship estimates should be planned. This effort should be managed by SCAT. Subsequent steps in the development of potential express bus routes in this context should include a stated preference survey of workers at KSC/NASA, Patrick Air Force Base, various hotel/motels, and other employment sites i n the study area. This type of analysis will assist in evaluating empl oyee interest in using express bus service to commute to work. Local focus groups should be considered as a method to gain additional information on ridership interest in using transit for local and commute trips Finally, SCAT should conduct a demonstration test o f an express bus route. This will provide SCAT officials, as well as transit proponents in the area, with actual data on the marketability of express bus service in the area. Workers using the service during this demonstration period will serv e as a test group that can be observed and surveyed to determine further preferences, and provide i nforma tion that will help to improve the service. 33

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F1GURE6 Fixed-route Service in Cocoa Beach Proposed Fixed-Route Washington Ave. Cape Canaveral I I <( ..-<( SR120 Cocoa Beach <( ..<( Atlantic Ocean SCJILIE. CU'rR


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