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Economic and mobility impacts of the Orlando Orange County Expressway Authority

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Title:
Economic and mobility impacts of the Orlando Orange County Expressway Authority
Physical Description:
Book
Language:
English
Creator:
Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority
Publisher:
Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority
Place of Publication:
Orlando, Fla
Publication Date:

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Subjects / Keywords:
Express highways--Florida--Orlando--Design and construction   ( lcsh )
Express highways--Florida--Orange County--Design and construction   ( lcsh )
Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority--History   ( lcsh )
Genre:
letter   ( marcgt )

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Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
usfldc doi - C01-00085
usfldc handle - c1.85
System ID:
SFS0032203:00001


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Economic 3nd Mobility Impacts of the Orlandq-Orange County --""'" Expressway Authority Fina] Repo H . . Cetltct' for l!rilu CeJC .tE-ciMcoiwl hlrida

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Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority 525 South Magnolia Avenue Orlando, Florida 32801-4414 ( 407) 425-8606 Project Manager: Steve J. Pustelnyk Center for Urban Transportation Research College of Engineering University of South F l orida 4202 East Fowler Avenue ENB 118 T ampa Florida 33620 5350 (813) 974 3120 Director: Project Managers: Project Staff: Graduate Assistants: Gary L. Brosch Michael C. Pietrzyk, P E RichardT. Stasiak, Ph.D. Samantha Beard Steve Maas Mitchell York Christopher Billingsley Gregory Ferrara Jason Wmoker

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Highlights + In 1993, the Expressway System contributed $227.8 million to the community in reduced travel time, lower fuel consumption, and fewer accidents. + By 2020, this annual contribution is expected to increase to $899.1 million. + The overall contribution from 1993 to 2020 ranges from $4.1 billion to $5.4 billion. + Real estate representing over $7.2 billion in assessed value was located within one mile of the Expressway System in 1993. + Over 58 percent of Orange County's assessed residential property value in 1993 was within one mile of the Expressway System. + A total of 87 percent of Orange County's assessed residential property value in 1993 was within three miles of the Expressway System. + Over 60 percent of Orange County's housing and permanent residents in 1993 were located within one mile of the Expressway System. + Nearly 70 percent of Orange County's jobs in 1993 were located within one mile of the Expressway System. + Land around the Expressway System will support an even larger share of Orange County's residence and employment in the future. + Over 75 percent of new dwelling units, nearly 80 percent of new commercial space, 64 percent of new industrial space, and nearly 73 percent of new hotel and motel rooms in pending major developments are located within one mile of the Expressway System.

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Economic and Mobility Impacts the Orlando-Orange Coun(Y Expressway Authori(Y Introduction The economic impact oftbe Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority's netw ork of toll highways is the d ollar value of the savings to users of the regional highway system as a result of the operation of the Expressway System. These savings reflect the Expressway System's contributions to local and regional travel: congestion relief and increased safety This study considers another measure of the economic impact of the Expressway System, the extent to which improved mobility has been translated into land v alues population, and job growth along these toll highways. If the Expressway System had not been built, remaining roads and stree ts io the Orlando area would have to suffice as alternate travel rou tes. The resulting congestion would reduce speeds and increase travel time on these remaining roads and streets. Increased travel in "stop-and-go" traffic conditions would lead to additional fuel consumption and vehicle emissions. Increased travel on alternate routes, many of which are narrow and lack medians would reduce the overall safety of the highway system and cause accident costs to rise. The reduced quality of highway travel would lead directly to higher costs for business travelers, tour bus operators, and truckers, directly impacting the local economy. Commuters, shoppers, and tourists would not suffer a direct financial loss from increased travel time, but they would find the Orlando area a less desirable place to live, work, shop, and play. All of the above factors would have a negative impact on the desirability of locat ing a h ome or business in the Orlando area. The higher cost of travel would have a negative bearing on the value of land throughout the area served by the Ell.-pressway System. A portion of existing development would occur in its present form without the improved access provided by the Exp ressway System. Some development would move to less congested parts of the area, increasing urban sprawl. Other developments would not be feasible due to a lack of access This would reduce housing, employment entenainment, and cultural opponu oities on a both a l ocal and regional basis. Reduced levels of development and lower propeny values would negatively impact the construction industry and ultimately, diminish the propeny tax base. Current and future growth in the area served by the Expressway System would be jeopardized. Page I

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority Methodology The economic impact of the Expressway System was first analyzed from the perspective of its contributions to mobility and safety. A counter-factual (i.e., contrary to actual conditions) analysis was condu cted to determine the transportation consequences of eliminating the Expressway System from the regional highway network. Computer simulati ons normally used to forecast future travel conditions were modified to exclude the Expressway System from t he highway network. Simulations were conducted for years 1993 and 2020, both including and excluding the Expressway System. Performance statistics for travel time, fuel consumption, and traffic accidents on the entire regional highway system wer e noted for each simulation. The difference between the "NoBuild" case (without the Expressway System) and the "Base" case (with the Expressway System) performance statistics for a given year represented the Expressway System's effects in each of the three categories. Time, fuel, and accident savings were subsequently converted to dollar values using standard methods of economic analysis. The second measure of economic impact included in this study is the measurement of land use impacts. Modern computer-based mapping tools made it possible to measure the patterns ofland values and different land uses in Orange County at a high level of detail. These patterns were analyzed in areas located within one mile of the Expressway System. The analysis looked at overall land values, land values by category ofland use (residential, commercial, agricultural etc.), current and future patterns of residence and employment, growth trends, and current trends in major residential and commercial development. Economic Impact of Improved Mobility and Safety The economic analysis of the Expressway System's impact on the Orlando area began with a travel demand analysis. Four (4) travel scenarios were considered: Analysis year 1993, No-Build case Analysis year 1993, Base case Analysis year 2020, No-Build case Analysis year 2020, Base case The travel demand under each scenario was estimated and summary measures of highway performance were tabulated. The differences between the "Base" and Page]

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Economic and Mobility Impacts o[ the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority "No-Build" cases for each year are shown in Table I and Figure I below, for absol ute and relative changes in highway performance . Table 1 Category Vehicle Miles Traveled Vebic:le Hours Traveled Fuel Use (gallons ) To
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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority In 1993, if the Expres sway System had not been bui lt, cars, trucks, and buses in the Orlando area would have spen t an extra 28, 477 hours in traffic every day. This equates to more than three years' time--actually 3 years 3 months -wasted every day In a year, the total amount of time wasted soars to a staggering I, 187 years The removal of the Expressway System reduces mobility as shown by the decline in vehicle miles traveled. Many important trips would not be mad e because of the increased traffic congestion. Despite this decrease in vehic l e miles traveled, hours spent traveling and fuel consu med in 1993 would increase Cars, trucks, and buses would waste an extra 18 479 gal lons of fuel in traffic every day. With a 15-gallon average fuel capacity for motor vehicles this is equivalent to 1 ,232 tankfuls of fue l per day On an annual basis, the quantity of wasted fuel amounts to over 6 7 million gal lons. Worse yet, this addi t ional fuel would be burned in slower moving traffic, adding more pollutan t s to the env ironment. Motor vehicles would be involved in an extra six traffic accidents every day. On an annual basis, thi s is equivalent to 2, 146 addit ional property damage accidents ("fender benders") The fractional differences i n injury and fatal crashes add up to 292 additional injuries and about four additional persons killed annual ly. The next step in the measurement process was the conversion of the hours, gallons and accidents shown in Table I into dollar values generally referred to as highway user benefits Daily statistics were first annualized. Conversion factors developed by federal, state, and local transporta tion officials for me asuri n g the doUar values of time, fuel, and accident damage were then app lie d. The results are shown in Table 2 In 1993 when time savings are averaged out over different v ehicles, trip purposes drivers and passengers, the doUar value is almost $150 million per year. At standard dollar values for pain and suffering, lost income medical bills p roperty damage, and other accident-related costs, the safety impact of the E xpressway System is over $73 million per year. Exclu ding federal, state, and local taxes fuel cost savings amount to $5 million per year. The total annual benefit for 1993 is just under $228 million per year. Page4

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange Counry Expressway Authority Table2 Annual User Benefits From the Oneration of tbe Expressway System Annual User Benefits 1993 2020 (in mil\ious) (in millions) Travel Time $149.5 $923.6 FuelCOilSUlllj>tion s o (2.9) All Crashes 73.3 (21.6 ) Propeny Damage Only Crashes 11.7 2.2 Injury Crashes 49.4 (11.7) Fatal Crashes 12.2 (12.1) Total $117.8 $899.1 Tbe annual benefit inc reases to nearly $900 million by the year 2020, with savings only in the category of travel time. Safety and fuel consumption advantages of the alternatives reverse over time because elimination of the Expressway System leads to a significant reduction in vehicle miles traveled. The safety and fuel consumption changes are the results of this reduced mobility. Reduction in travel translates into lower exposure to accidents and reduced fuel consumption compared with the Base case. However, these changes do not offset time savings to any great extent. The ultimate measure of the economic im pact of the Expressway System is the combination of benefits in 1993, interim years 1994 through 2019 and 2020 into a single long-term figure. After adjustments for growth and the decreased \alue of money in future years, the economic impact of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority's network of toll highways ranges from $4. 1 billion (at a 7 percent discount or interest rate) to $5.4 billion (at a 4 percent discount rate). Please consult the Techni cal Appendix for complete details of this and other calculations Land Use Analysis The economic theory of urban and regional systems shows that the ease of travel along transportation corridors has a direct bearing on land use and land values. Location is translated into time and money by the performance of the urban transportation system. ln the case of the Expressway System, land values and land use patterns should reflect the extent to which the Expressway System has Page5

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority historically reduced travel times. Generally speaking, land that is more accessible is more highly valued and more intensively used for residential or business purposes. All other things being equal, land values should be higher i n locations close to the Expressway System, and residence employment, and other activities should be more concentrated. The use of actual land value, residence, and employment data provide another view of economic impact and a crucial "reality check on the contributions of the Expressway System to the area' s economic vitality Land Value and the Expressway System The map insert contained in this report shows a graphic of Orange County, the Expressway System, and related points of interest. The grid in the background reflects the inclusion of County Tax Assessor's data in the analysis. Florida's Tax Assessors maintain detailed, mappable land value and land use information in digital format. For this analysis, these data were combined with a map of the Expressway System. The I 00 possible land use classifications were combined into the seven categories shown in Table 3 Table 3 Land Use Classifications Land Use Brief Descri ption Residential Single I Multifamily Dwellings CommOicial Stores, Offices, Shops Industrial Manufacturing Agricultural Ranches, Farms, Timberl and Institutional CbUIChes, Schools Hospitals, Government Vacan t Vacan t parcels for all permitted land uses All All of the above Desktop computer mapping (or geographic information system) software was used to create a "buffer" containing land located within one mile of the Expressway System (In one case, a three-mile buffer was used.) The buffers were constructed along the complete length of the Expressway System rather than at interchanges only because even the potential placement of an interchange in the future could have an impact on land values. This procedure permits the measurement ofland characteristics around the Expressway System on a more general basis. Table 4 shows the res ul t of the buffer analysis. Page6

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Econom i c and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange Coun!Y Expressway Authority Table4 Orange County Land Served by the Expressway System (Values in 1993 dollars) Land Use Buffer Assessed Taxable Pereentof Category Radius Value Value Assessed Value I miles) I ISmillionsl ($millions) in Buffer Residential I 3,820.6 2 ,957.5 58.2 Residential 3 12,563.5 9,963 / 87.0 Conunercial I 1,380.0 1 370.2 57. 8 Industrial I 195.4 191.3 61.6 Agricultural 1 ]5.1 14. 1 SS.l Institutional I 389.9 39.4 76. 9 Vacant I 1 417.3 543.2 49.0 All Land Uses I 7 218.1 5,115 .8 56.8 Orange County has a total land area square miles; the one-mile buffer around the Express way System contains 162.7 square miles The buffer is equivalent to 17.9 percent of Orange County's land area but accounts for 56.8 percent ofland value. The concentration of over one-half of Orang e County's real estate value within one mile of the Expressway System reflects, in part, the market valuation of the benefits provided by these toll highways in past years. Further evidence of the historical impact of the Expressway System is shown in the second line of Table 4, where 87 percent of residential property value in Orange County is located within a three-mile buffer. Clearly some development would have occurred without the enhanced access provided by the Expressway System However, even a 10 percent reduction in taxable value within one mile of the Expressway System equates to a $500 million drop in Orange County's property tax base. Residence Employment, and the Expressway System The analysis of residential and employment location provides additional evidence of the influence of the Expressway System on land use patterns Enhanced access provided by the Expressway System would tend to attract and concentrate residential and business activity. Traffi c Analysis Zone data is geographically coded information that tracks population, employment, and other data for the purpose of predicting future travel demand. Data for permanent residents, single and multifami ly dwelling units hotel or motel units and for commercial, industrial, and service employment were mapped and a buffer analysis was performed. The results of a one-mile buffer analysis are shown in Table 5 Page 7

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority TableS L:md Use l\feas= Guests 72.3 68.0 T otal 68.8 70.0 The results of the buffer analysis of 1993 data are consistent with the earlier analysis ofT ax Assessors' data. Table 5 indicates that a majority of the dwellings, residents, and employment in Orange County are located within one mile of Expressway System facilities. This is strong evidence of the central role played by these transportation conidors in past economic growth. A portion of this activity would likely have occurred at its present location without the Expressway System Some population and employment would have located elsewhere, potentially increasing urban sprawl. However a portion of the economic activity depicted in these numbers would not have been feasible due to a lack of access. Projected data for 2020 have also been included in Table 5. These data show that the concentration of economic activity within the buffer is expected to actually increase over the long term. Overall, this portion of the analysis shows that the Expressway System bas played and will likely continue to play, a pivotal role in the economic life of Orange County Economic Growth and the Expressway System Table 6 shows the projected, compounded growth in residence and employment at the traffic zone level between 1993 and 2020. Growth bas been measured over all of Orange County as well as within a one-mile buffer of the Express way System. Page8

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority Table6 Exoresswav Svstem Facilities and County Growth Land Use Me.uure 1993-2020 Growth Countv Buffer Stn.le Familv 25.2 59 1 Sirude Familv Pennanent Residents 29.6 62.7 Multi-Familv Dwe'""" 86.2 109 6 Multi-Familv Pennanen t Residents 85 0 111.0 Hotel/Motel Rooms 180. 9 188.9 Avera Hotel/Motel Guests 268,9 23i.J Industrial Emnlovment 220 0 390.1 Commercial Emnlovment 32 1 17 9 Service EIDDi
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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority augmen ted database includes residential, commercial, industrial, and hoteVmo tel land uses. All other things being equal, one would expect to find a significant proportion of emerging development located in the vicinity of major transportation facilities such as the Expressway System. The results of a one-mile buffer analysis are shown in Table 7. Table 7 The All Land Uses Total Acreage 35 079 20,370 58.1 Residential Uses Dwelling Units 24, 541 18 667 76.1 Acreage 5,363 2 627 49.0 Commercial Uses Feet 20 16 79.8 Acreage 3 345 2 199 65.7 Industrial Uses Square Feet (millions) 9 6 64.0 1,411 909 64.4 Hotelll\fotel Uses Rooms 1,645 1 198 72.8 Al l Other Uses I 286 I 209 I 73.1 This analy s is shows that more than 75 percent of new dwelling units, nearly 80 percent of new commercial space, 64 percent of new industrial space, and nearly 73 percent of new hotel and motel rooms in pending major developments are located within one mile of the Expressway System. The location and nature of actual development activity covered by the DRI process provides compelling evidence that the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority's toU facilities continue to play a prominent role in sustaining and focusing economic growth within Orange County. Page 10

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Economic and Mobility Impacts of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority Summary and Conclusions This study measured the economic impact of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority s toll facilities from the stand point of its value-in-use as a transportation system Traffic models were used to simulate current and future traffic levels both with the Expressway System (the Base Case) and without the Expressway System (the No-Build case). The impact of the "removal" of the Expressway System had profound impacts on congestion, fuel consumption, and safety. In dollar terms elimination of the Expressway System increased regional travel cost by an amount ranging from $4 I billion to $5.4 billion total over the period 1993 to 2020. These fi!,'Ures represent the economic impact of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority's toll highway system from the perspective of highway users. A geographic analysis of land use data for Orange County was conducted to determine the effects of the Expressway System. This analysis revealed strong historical impacts on land use and values within the service area of the Expressway System A one-mile buffer around Expressway System facilities represents only 17.9 percent of Orange County's land area, but accounts for 56.8 percent of assessed value for all land types, equivalent to at least $7. 2 billio n Over 60 percent of residence and nearly 70 percent of employment are located within one mile oftbe Expressway System. Between 64 and 78 percent of current and near term construction associated with emerging major developments is located "'ithin this buffer as well. The Expressway System supports a larger than proportional share of existing residence and employment, and will support an eve n larger proportion in the future By any measure ofland value and land use, the Expressway System clearly provides the mobility backbone for the Orange County economy. Page II

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