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An Analysis of the economic impacts of Florida high speed rail

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Title:
An Analysis of the economic impacts of Florida high speed rail
Physical Description:
1 v. (various pagings) : ill., maps ; 28 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
Lynch, Thomas A
Lynch, Thomas A ( Thomas Anthony )
Florida -- Dept. of Transportation
University of South Florida -- Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis
University of South Florida -- Center for Urban Transportation Research
Florida Overland Express
Florida State University -- Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis
Publisher:
Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis
Center for Urban Transportation Research
Place of Publication:
Tallahassee, Fla.
Tampa, Fla.
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Railroads -- Passenger traffic -- Planning -- Florida   ( lcsh )
High speed trains -- Environmental aspects -- Florida   ( lcsh )
High speed trains -- Economic aspects -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-74).
Additional Physical Form:
Also available online.
Statement of Responsibility:
prepared by Thomas A. Lynch ... et al.
General Note:
"Prepared for the Florida Department of Transportation and Florida Overland Express."
General Note:
"July 1997."
General Note:
"June 1997."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 022310794
oclc - 37392220
usfldc doi - C01-00187
usfldc handle - c1.187
System ID:
SFS0032288:00001


This item is only available as the following downloads:


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An Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Flo r ida High Speed Rail Jun e 1 997 Prepared f or the F l o r ida Department o f T r a n s p ortatio n and CEFA-hr IIIII 111111* FLORIDA OVERLAND E X PRESS Prepared by Thomas A Lynch, P h.D. Nei l Sipe Ph.D. Institu t e o f Scie n ce & Public Affai r s F l or i da State Uni vers i ty 2035 E Pa u l D i r ac D r ive Rm. 130 Morgan B l d g I nnovat i on Park Tal lahassee, FL 32310 Steven E Polzin Ph.D Xuehao Chu, Ph D.' Cent e r for U rban Tra n sportatio n Research Uni versity of South F l or i da 4202 E Fowler Avenu e CUT 100 Tampa, FL 33620-5375

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS . ... OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page Table of Contents ......... . . .... ............... . . . . . . . 111 List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . v List of Figures ........... : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Background . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. 3 The High Speed Rail Atternative . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . .. . . 5 The Fl orida High Speed Rail Project .......... ... . . . . . . . 5 Imp acts of Flori d a High Speed Rai l .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . 12 HSR Travel and T rave ler Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 T he State of the Art of Economic I mpact Assessment . . . . . . . . . 15 Risks and Uncertai nties . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 18 Cho i ce of Anal ytical Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 g Description of the REM I Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 Measuring Economic Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Reg i onal Descriptions .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 23 Impact Varia bles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Reg i ona l Allocation . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. .. 34 High Speed Rail Syste m Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Rolling Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Operating and Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Consumer Surplus of New Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Basic Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Assum p ti ons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Spec i fication of the demand model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 FOX ridership by source and trip purpose f o r forecast year 2010 . . 40 Generalized costs with and without FOX . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Ex1rapolating economic benefits for non-fo r ecast ye ars . . . . 42 Non User Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Highway Us.er Benefrts .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . . .. .. .. .. . 44 Congestion Savings . . . . . . .. .. . . . .. . . . .. .. . 44 A i r Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Air Traveler Congesti on Savings . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Automobile Operat ing Cost Savings . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . 4g State Contribution . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. . . . . . . .. . . 49 Page-iii

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TABL E OF CONTENTS {continued) Section Page Reinv estment of Net Operating Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Translation of Imp act Variables into REMI Variables . . . . . . . . . 49 REMI Analytical Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Step One . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Step Two . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Step Three . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Step Four . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 F in dings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Statewide I mpacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Regional Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Appendix A Technical Findings RIMS II Multiplier Analysis of Economic Impacts .. ... A1 Appendix B Baseline Forecasts by Region ....... ....... ..................... B-1 Appendix C Values of REMI Input Variab l es by Region . ...... ..... ....... . C 1 Appendix D Regional Economic I mpacts in Detail ......... . ...... ....... D1 Appendix E Raw REMI Output Tables ....................................... E 1 Page-lv

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LIST OF TABLES {TEXT) AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL PAGE T able 1. FOX Schedu l e Speeds a n d Dista n ces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Tabl e 2 FLORIDA OVERlAND EXPRESS Project Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Table 3. Flo rida H ig h Speed Rail Spending and Revenues Summary (1997-2043) ... . .... 1 7 Table 4. Travel Diverted to the High Speed Rail Sys tem through 2043 .... .... .... . ... 1 7 Tab l e 5 Regiona l Characteristics ... ... .... . ....... . . ........ ......... .... 24 Table 6 Regiona l Popu l ation Trend 19801996 .... .... ....... ....... ... ............. 25 Table 7. Regiona l Non farm Emp l oyment T rend, 1 9801996 . . ................... 26 Ta b l e 8 Statew ide Va lues of Impacted Variables .. ............... ...... .... ........... 29 Tabl e 9 Route Milage by Regio n a n d Segment ......... ... ..................... ...... 3 4 Tab l e 10. Rid e rship for 2010 by Trip Pu rpose Sou rce an d Selected S t atio n Pairs . .... .... 44 Table 11. Input Variable s and Their Use i n Analy1ical Steps : ................ ...... .... 51 Tab l e 12. REM Ana l ytical Steps ................ . .... . ...... ........... ....... 52 Tab l e 13. Economic Impacts of the F lorida Hi gh Speed Rail: State o f Fl orida (S tep 1 ) .. ... .... 56 Table 14. Economic Impacts of th e Florida High Speed Rail: State o f F l orida (S t ep 2) ... .. ... 57 Table 15. Eco nomic Impacts of the F lorida H i gh Speed Rail : State o f F l orida (step 3) . ...... 58 Table 16. Economic Impacts of the F l orida H i gh Speed Rail: State o f F l orida (Step 4) . . . . 59 Tabl e 17. E cono mic Impacts of the Flor ida High Speed Rail: Reg i o n al Summary (Step 1) ...... 66 Table 18. Economic Im pacts of the F lorida H i gh Speed Rall: Regio n al Summary (Step 2) ... ... 66 19. Eco n omic Impacts of the Florida High Speed Rail: Regional Summary (S tep 3) ...... 67 Table 20. Economic Impacts of the Florida H i gh Speed Rail : Regional S u mmary (Step 4) ....... 67 Pagev

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LIST OF TABLES (APPENDICES) AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL PAGE T able A 1 Economic Impacts of FOX Spending ....... . ......... ............. ..... A-2 Tab l e B1. Super Summary Tabl e for T ampa Bay Contro l Forecast ........... .......... B -1 Table B 2 Summary Table for Private Non farm Secto r s for Tampa Bay Contr o l Forecast B 2 Table B -3. Emp loyment Tabl e for Ta mpa Bay Control Forecast .. .. .. ............ . .. B-3 Table B-4 Personal Income Table for Tampa Bay Control Forecas t ...................... B 4 Table B-5 GRP by Final Demand Table for Tampa Bay Cont r ol Fo r ecast .......... .... ... B-5 Tabl e 8-6. Super S u mmary Table for East Central Con trol Forecast ............ .......... B 6 Table B-7 Summary Tabl e for Private Non -fa rm Sectors for East Central Contr o l Fore cast B 7 Tabl e 8-6. Emp loyment Table for East Centra l Control Forecas t ...... ....... ........... B 8 T able B-9 P ersonal I ncome Table for East Central Contro l For ecast ...... ..... ......... B-9 Ta bl e B-10 GRP by F i nal Dema n d Table for East Centra l Control Forecas t ...... ......... B10 Table B-11. Supe r Summary Tabl e Treas ure Coas t Control Forecast .......... ... ....... B 1 1 Table B-12 Summary Table for Pr i vate No n farm Sectors Treasure Coast Con trol Forecast B -12 Tabl e B13. Employment Table Treasure Coast Control Forecast ........................ B13 Table B-14 Personal I ncome Table Treasure Coast Control Forecast ................... B 1 4 Table B 15. GRP by Fina l Demand Table Treasure Coas t Con t rol Forecas t . .... ......... B 1 5 T able B-16 Super S u mma ry Table for Broward County Contro l Forecast ................ B -16 Tabl e B-17. Summary Tab le for Private N on-farm Sectors for Broward County Con trol Forecast B1 7 Table B-18. Employment T able for Broward County Contro l Forecast .................... B -18 Ta ble B-19 Personal Income Tabl e for Broward Cou nty Co ntr o l Fo recast .... ..... .... ... B -19 Tab le B -20 GRP by F i nal Demand Table f or Broward County Control Forecas t ............ B 20 Table B -21. Super Summary Table for Dade County Contro l Forecast .... ...... ... ... B 21 Tabl e B-22. Summary Table for Private Non-farm Sectors for Dade County Control Fo recas t B 22 Table B-23. Employment Table for Dade County Cont rol Fo r ecas t ......... ............. B 23 Table B-24 Personal I ncome Table for Dade County Co ntrol For ecast ....... ........... B 24 Table B-25. GRP by Fina l Demand Tabl e for Da d e County Control Fo r ecast ........ ....... B 25 Table B-26 Super Summary Tabl e for Other Reg io n s of the State Contro l Forecast ....... B 26 Tabl e B-2 7 Summary Tab le for Private Non farm Sectors for Other Regions o f th e State Contro l Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B 27 Table B-28 Emp loym e nt Table for O the r Regions of th e State Contro l Forecast ............ B 2 8 Tab l e B 29 Perso na l Income Table for Othe r Regions of the State Control Forecast ........ B -29 Tabl e B 30 GRP by F i nal Deman d Table for Other Regions of the State Con trol F ore cast B 30 Tab l e B 31. Super Summary Table fo r State of F lo rida Contro l Forecas t .................. B-31 Tab le B-32. Summary Table for Priva t e Non-farm Sectors for State of F l orida Contro l Forecast B 32 Table B-33 Employment Table for State of F l or ida Con trol Foreca s t .................... B 33 Tabl e B -34 Personal Income Tabl e for State of Florida Control Forecast . . . . . . . . B 34 Tab l e B-35 GRP by F i na l Demand Tab l e f o r Sta t e of Florida Contro l Forecast .. .. ......... B 35 Pagevi

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0 )iN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS OF FLORID A HIGH SPEED RAIL List of Tables (Appendices continued) Page Tabl e C-1. REMI Input Variables for Tampa Bay ......... .... .... .... ........... C -2 T able C 2. REM I I np ut Variables for East Central .. ... . ..... ............. ...... C4 Tab le C 3. REM I I npu t Variab l es for Treasure Coast ...... .......... ........ C 6 Table C-4. REM I I n put Variables for Broward County ................... ............... C 8 Tabl e C-5. REM I I nput Variables for Dade Cou nty ................................... C-10 T able C-6. REM I I n put Variables for Other Regions of F lo rida ... ....................... C 1 2 T able D-1. Economic Impact of the F l orida Hig h way Speed Rail: Tampa Bay (Step 1 ) ...... D-2 Tabl e D-2 Economic Impact of the Florida Hig h way S peed Rail: East Central (Step 1) . . D3 Table D-3 Economic Impact of the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Treas u re Coast (Step 1 ) ... 0 4 T able D-4 Econo mic Impact o f the Aorida Highway Speed Rail: Broward County (Step 1 ) ... D5 Table D-5. Eco n omic Impact of the Aorida Hig hwa y Speed Rail: Dade County {Step 1) ...... D6 Table 0-6. Eco nomic Impact of the Ronda Hig h way S peed Rail: Other Regions of th e State (Step 1) .......... .......... ............... . ..... ...... D7 T able 0-7. Eco n omic Impact of the Flo rida H i ghway Speed Rail : State of F lo rida (Step 1 ) ... D 8 T able D-8 Economic Impact of the A orida H i ghway Speed Rail: Tampa Bay (Step 2) ...... D 9 Table D-9 Economic Impact of the A orida Highway Speed Rail: East Central (Step 2) .. .. D-10 T able D-1 0. Economic Im pact of the Flor ida Highway Speed Rail: Treas ure Coast (Step 2) .. D11 Table D-11 Economic Impact o f th e Florida Highway Speed Rail: Browand County (Step 2) 012 Table D-12. Eco nomic Im pact of the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Dade County {Step 2) .... 0-13 Table D-13 Economic Impact of the Florida Highway S peed Rail: Other Regions of the State {Step 2) . . . . .......... . ........................ ...... o 14 Tab l e 0 1 4 Econom i c I mpact of the Florida Highway Speed Rail: State of F lo rida (Step 2) .. 0 15 Table 0-15. E conomic Impact of the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Tampa Bay (Step 3) . ... o -16 Table 0 1 6. Eco nomi c I mpact of the Florida Highway Spee d Rail: East Central {Step 3) .. .. 017 Tab l e 0-17. Economic Impact of the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Treasure Coast (Step 3) .. 0-18 Tab l e 0 1 8 Economic I mpact o f the Florida Hig hwa y Speed Rail: B r oward County (S tep 3) 0-19 T able D-19 Econ omic Impac t o f the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Dade County (Step 3) .... D 20 T able 0-20. Economic Imp a c t o f the Florida Highway Speed Rail: Other Regio n s of the State (Step 3) .. ... .... .... ......................... ...... .. .. ... D -21 Table 0-21 Eco n omic Impact of the F l orida Highway Speed Rail: Stele o f F l orida {Step 3) 022 Tab l e D-22 Econom i c Impact of th e F lo ri da Highway Speed Rail: Tampa Bay (Step 4) .. ... D-23 Tabl e D-23. Economic Impact of the Florida H ig hway Speed Rail: East Cent ra l (Step 4) ..... 024 Table D -24. Econom i c Impact of the F l orida H i ghway S pe ed Rail: Treasure Coast (Step 4) .. D -25 Table D-25. Economi c Impact of th e F l ori d a Highway Speed Rail: Broward Cou nty (Step 4) D26 Tabl e D-26 Econo mic Impact of the Flo r ida Highway Speed Rail: Dade County (Step 4) .... D-27 T able D-27. Economic I mpact of the Florida Highway Speed Ra il: Othe r Regions of the State (Step 4) .. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. . . .. . . . .. . . D -28 Table D-28 Eco n om i c I mpact of t h e Florida H i ghway Speed Ra il : S tat e o f Florida (Step 4) .. D 29 Page vii

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL List of Tables (Appendicescontinued) Page Ta ble E-1. Supe r Summary Table for Tampa Bay Step 4 ......... .... ................ E 2 Table E-2 Summary Table for Private Non-farm Sectors for Tampa Bay Step 4 .... ....... E-3 T able E -3 Emp loymen t T ab l e for Tampa Bay Step 4 ........................ . ..... E 4 Table E-4 Perso na l ln oome Table for Tam pa Bay Step 4 . ....... ............. .... E 5 T able E-5 GRP by Fina l Demand Tab le for Tampa Bay Step 4 ............ ...... ..... E 6 Table E-6. Super S u mmary Tabl e fo r East Cent ral Step 4 ..... . .......... ......... E-7 Table E-7 Summary Table for Private Non-farm Sectors for East Cen t ral Step 4 ... ....... E-8 Table E-8 Employment Table for East Centra l Step 4 ......... . ..... ........... E 9 Table E-9. Personal ln oome Table for East Centra l Step 4 ............. ............... E 1 0 Tabl e E -10. GRP by Final Demand Table for Eas t Central Step 4 ....... ................ E-11 Table E 11. S u per Summary Table Treasure Coast Step 4 ............. ............. E -12 T able E -12 Su mmary Table for Private Non -fa rm Sectors Treasure Coast Step 4 .......... E 1 3 Table E-13. Employment Table Treasure Coast Step 4 ... ... ... ...... ............. E -14 Tab le E-14. Personallnoome Table Tre asure Coast Step 4 .. .. ..... ... ................ E-1 5 T able E -15. GRP by Final Demand Table Treasure Coast Step 4 ...................... E -16 Table E 16. S u per S u mmary Table for Broward County Step 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . E 1 7 T able E1 7 Summary Ta ble for Pr iva te Non-farm Sectors for Broward County Step 4 ...... E -18 Table E-18 Em pl oyment Table for B r oward County Step 4 .. .......................... E -19 Table E -19 Personallnoome Table for Broward Cou nty S tep 4 ........ .......... ...... E 20 Table E-20 GRP by Final Demand Tab le for Broward County Step 4 .... ................ E -21 Tab l e E-21. Super SummaJY Table for Dade County Step 4 ..... . .................... E-22 Table E-22. Sum mary Table for Private Non -fa r m S e ctors for Dade Co u nty Step 4 . . . . E 23 Table E 23. Employment Table for Dade County Step 4 ............................... E 24 Table E-24 Personallnoome Table for Dade County Step 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . E 2 5 T able E-25. GRP by F i nal Demand Tabl e for Dade County Step 4 ....... ...... ...... E2 6 T able E 26. Super Summary Table for Other Regio n s of the State Step 4 ........ ...... E 27 Tab l e E -2 7 Summary Table for Priva t e Non-farm Sectors for Othe r Regions of th e State Step 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E 28 T able E-28. Employment Table for Othe r Regio n s of the State Step 4 ................. E 29 Table E-29. Personal Income Table for Other Regions of the Sta t e Step 4 . . . . . . . . E 30 Tab l e E-30. GRP by F inal Demand Tabl e for O ther Regions of t h e State Step 4 ........... E 31 Tab le E-3 1 Super Summary Table for State of Florida (Step 4) ... .................... E 32 Table E-32. Summary Table for Private Non-farm Sect ors for State of Florida ( Step 4 ) . . . E 33 Table E-33 Em ployment Table for State of Florida (Step 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . E 34 Table E 34. Persona l lnoome Table for State of F l o rida (S tep 4) . . . . . . . . . . . . E 35 Table E-35 GRP by Fina l Demand Table for State of Florida (Step 4 ) ...... .......... E-36 Page-viii

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List of Figures AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Page Figure 1 Population and Tourism Growth 1990-2010 ... 0 0 0 0 ...... 0 4 Figure 2 Trave l Demand Growth, 1990-2010 ............... 0 .......... 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 .. ..... 4 F i gure 3. FOX System and Project Description ........ ... 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 Fi gure 4. FOX Stations and Facilities ........... 0 ........... .. ........................ 8 Figure 50 FOX Implementation Time Une ...................................... ....... 10 Fig ure 6. Flo r ida High Speed Rail R i dership ............ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0 0 0 0 0 13 F i gure 7 Economic Impacts of Florida High speed Rail ...... o o 18 F igure 8 Flo r ida Population, 1996 .......... ............. . o o 0 0 0 0 0 25 Figure 9. Florida Non -Farm 1996 ..... ....... o 0 0 0 0 0 27 F ig ure 10. Sum mary of Estimating Transportation Benefits ... 0 0 0 0 43 Figure 11. Statewide Employmentlmpacts .......... ...... ............. ............... 61 Figure 12. Statewide Wage and Salary I mpacts ...... . ... ....... ................... ... 62 Figure 13. Statewide Economic Output I mpacts . .. . .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. 63 F i gure 14. Regiona l Employment Impacts per Year .............. ..................... .. 68 Figure 15. Reg io nal Wage and Salary Impacts per Year . ... 0 0 0 0 .... . 0 0 0 68 F i gure 16. Regional Output Impacts per Year ........................... ...... ......... 69 F igure A-1 -RIMS II Analysis of FOX and Federal Dollar Contributions .............. . A-4 Figure A-2 RIMS II Analysis ofTotal P rojec t Capita l and Operat ions Spending .. o A-5 Page-ix

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL INTRODUCTION This report, An Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail, is one of three documents produced reporting on the impacts of Florida high speed rail. Two studies, with a shared executive summary, were carried out to analyze the impacts of Florida high speed rail. This initiative was undertaken during the first half of 1997, by the Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEFA) at Florida State University (Tallahassee) and the Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) at the University of South Florida (Tampa). The three documents consist of two technical reports and an executive summary. The two technica l reports each share introductory materials and background information then present find ings in their respective areas. The technical study and executive summary titles are: An Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail Travel Time, Safety, Energy, and Air Quality Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail Executive Summary: An Analysis of the Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail This research effort is in response to a request from the Rorida Department of Transportation (FOOT) and the FLORIDA OVERLAND EXPRESS (FOX), the franchisee to construct and operate Florida high speed rail, to support continued project planning. Thus this effort prQduced an analysis that provides additional, specific technical information regarding the impacts of the FOX project based on the high speed ra il plan as outlined in the FOX proposal and subsequent franchise agreement between FOX and Florida Department of Transportation. This report specific impacts of interest to planners, the public and decision makers. These economic impacts are discussed and quantified in their respective units of measure; jobs (expressed as person years of employment), wages and salaries (expresse d in 1gg7 dollars), and economic output (also expressed in 1997 dollars) This report is organized to briefly describe the transportation market in F l or ida and the FOX plan, followed by a more substantial discussion of the methodology and findings of the analysis. Page-1

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AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH BACKGROUI!ID F lorida has experienced p opulation and tourism growth over the past few decades virtua ll y unrivaled elsewhere in the United States. Population has grown f rom 5.0 million in 1960 to 12.9 million in 1990 and is continuing to grow at a pace roughly twice as fast as the population as the U.S. Considerable progress has been made in expanding Florida's highways, ports, airports and public transportation systems. Flat topography, the absence of freeze -thaw cycles and a relatively young existing infrastructure have helped; however, g row ing demand has continued to outpace the supply of new transportation capacity As the inventory of facilities grows the cost of maintenance requires an i ncreasing share of revenues Urbanization has d ramatically increased costs of right-of-way for facilit y widening. Congestion has increased the costs of maintaining traffic flow while repairing or widening facilities and utility relocation and environmental miti g ation have dramat icall y increased the cost for roadway expansi on. The costs and consequences of u nlimited expansion of Florida's roadways are more than can be borne by our environment and by the taxpayers A number of Florida's urbanized regions are nearing the physical and environmental lim its for expanding their highway and airport capacity. Figure 1 shows the growth In total population and tourism in Florida since 1970 and projected to 2010. Between 1990 and 2010 Florida population is expecte d t o increase by 38 percent. Population growth is expected to continue to favor the coastal and centra l Florida areas resuhlng I n larger and more dense urbanized areas. Tourism is expected to grow even more rapidly with an anticipated increase of 82 percent between 1990 and 2010. The Associated Press reports that Florida had 7.2 million foreign tour i sts in 1995 The renowned attractions of Florida a combination of sunshine, beaches and a huge and growing list of attractions and accommodations, will virtually assure continued attractiveness as the baby boom ages and the international population expands in numbers and has growing disposable income This increase In population and tourists will be facin g an increasingly strained transpo rtation system. Not only has population grown but travel per capita has increased And the infrastructure investments have not kept pace. As shown in Figure 2, highway lane miles ( LM) is forecasted to only increase 19 percent between 1990 and 2010. In that same time period vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and the numb e r of vehicles are expected to grow dramatically Vehicle miles of travel p e r highway lane mile is expected to increa se 52 Page-3

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECON O MIC IMPA CTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL percent. Air travel expansion has also dramat i cally outpaced popula t ion g r owth and continued pressure tor intercity travel capacity is expected to remain strong in Florida. Fi g ure 1 Populat i on and Tourism Gro wth, 1990 2 010 40 30 .. c g = 20 ::;; 10 0 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 l-e Total Tour i s t Popul a tion I Sourc e : CEFA and CUTR Figure 2. Travel Demand Growth 1990 2010 100% 80% 60% 4 0 % 20% 0% H i g hway LM Vehi c les per LM F lorida Tourists F l o r id Residents VMT pe r LM Source: CEFA and CUTR. Page 4

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The High Speed Rail Alternative AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL The Florida Department of Transportation has aggressively sought alternatives to meet the t r avel needs of Florida residents and tourists while still being responsible stewards of the environment and public resources. In this search, the prospect of implementing a high speed rail system for Rorida originated in 1982 and is currently mandated by the 1992 Florida High Speed Rail Transportation Act. Florida is not a lone in consideri n g high speed rail a number of states and regions are exploring a variety of rail technologies and corridors A common goal is to identify markets where travel volumes and distances are such that rail services can be competitive with highway and air travel options. This may provide an opportunity to lessen the p r essure on both roadway and ai r travel as these facilities are heavily congested in several urban areas As time h as passed, the prospect of a high speed rail system has grown more attractive. Modern rail technology has proven itself in an increasing number of travel markets across the globe. Florida's rapid p o pul ation and tourism g r owth, flat top ography c luster of large urbanized areas, and growing densities have created a travel market that, in part, may best be served by a transportat i o n system that includes high speed rail. Rapid development also motivates moving ahead with a system at this time while the cost and availability of r ig hts -of way are still reasonable Other motivations for mov i ng ahead inclu d e a desire to use the investment to help shape future development near stations and to complement the growing interest in public transit as an alternat ive to automobile travel. A traveler ch oosing to travel by HSR instead of auto may be further reducing roadway travel and its negative impacts as transit alternatives might be the logical choice for travel within the urban areas visited b y HSR trave lers. The proposed Florida high speed rail project is not envisioned as a single cure-all for the pressing travel congestion problems facing the state. High speed rail is, however, recognized as one of several pivotal transportation investments needed within the Integrated infrastructure of the state to resolve these growing concerns. The Florida High Speed Rail Project I n 1996 the Florida Department of Transportation entered into a public-private partnership with FLORIDA OVERLAND EXPRESS (FOX), a consortium of four of the world's largest and most Page-5

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL respected international engineering, construction and rail equipment companies to implement a high speed rail system linking Tampa-Orlando-Miami. The Florida Department of Transportation and FOX are currently in the process of final i z ing studies of ridership route alignment, construction costs and financing. The Florida High Speed Rail System is designed to provide approximately 320 miles of electrified track connecting Florida's largest urban areas. The system i s intended to be an integra l part of the state's overall transportation infrastructure by linking air, auto taxi, shuttle vans, bus, and existing rail and transit systems in a way that wi ll meet future resident and tourist travel needs. The Florida high speed rail project will serve as an important link in what may be the United States first mu l ti-moda l trar]sport system that includes high speed r ail. The system proposes connections with five major airports, the highway system and growing regional rail and bus t ransit systems across the state's largest metropolitan areas. The counties directly served by this proposed high speed rail system are forecast to contain more than 45% of the state's 15 5 million people by the year 2000 and over 58% of tourist development tax revenues are predicted to be collected in counties with direct FOX service. FOX will serve a very large share of the state's major tourism attractions including cruise ships, beaches, urban centers and theme parks. Fi gure 3 is a graphic provided by FOX that indicates the system characterist ics and the candidate alignments under study The proposed system is p l anned to utilize the newest generation of French TGV rail equipment The system will consist of ten car train sets, including two power cars seven passenger coaches and a lounge car with food service. The coach vehicles will be 61' 4" long and 9 6" wide. A train set would have seating capacity for 295 passengers. The system will serve seven stations as shown in Figure 4. The peak operating speed for the system is 200 miles per hour with an average scheduled trave l speeds shown in Table 1 for each station pair. Page 6

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AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Fi g ure 3. FOX System and ProjeCt Description FOX's High Speed Rail Source: FOX 320 O&dlcated Route Miles 7 Stations i ncluding 2 Airporllntennod a l Facilities 21 Train Sets 295 Passengers Per Train Top Operating Speed 200 mph Trains Can Operate Every 5 Min utes Interconnects With Local Transit at All stations Commenoes Operation 2004 5.3 B ill io n ($1995) Total Project COS1 Page 7

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Figu re 4 FOX Stations and Fa cilit ie s Stations 0 AltpOrt Connection 0 Mainte nance o f Way Facility 'V Service and Storage Fadllty H Operations Cente r <> Full Service Maintenance Facil ity Source: FOX. AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORID A HIGH SPEED RAIL .. Table 1. FOX Schedu l e Speeds and Distances Stations Miami Fort West Palm Orlando Orlando Lake l and Lauderdale Beach Airport Attractions Miles 3 1 9 286 227 84 73 32 Tampa Minutes 145 132 1 1 3 55 37 18 Miles 287 255 198 52 41 lakeland Minutes 125 112 93 35 17 O r l ando Miles 246 214 155 11 Attractions Minutes 1 03 90 7 1 13 O rla ndo Miles 235 203 144 Airport Minutes 85 72 53 West Palm Miles 92 59 Beach Minutes 44 23 Fort Miles 33 L a uderdal e Minutes 17 Source: FOX. Psg& 8

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Schedules would provide service at least every hour, getting more frequent over t ime as demand increased. Service would be provided 365 days per year at least 18 hou r s per day. Fares are anticipated to be competitive with or lower than airline fa res with pricing designed similar to airlines with yield management targeted to severa l different travel markets. Ticketing would be integrated with other ground travel and air providers. The system wou l d be completely grade separated with no at-grade crossings of roadways, other rail lines or ped estrian or other access. Stations would offer a full service environment with ticketing, access and egress mode serv i ces, amenities, and services designed to meet many traveler needs. Smaller in scale than commercial airports, rail stations would enable relatively quick arrival and departure t imes. The schedule for the implementation of the FOX program is shown in Figure 5. The proposed schedule for Florida's high speed rail project has env ironmenta l and engineering studies on-going through 1999 and construction slated to begin in 2000. The first passengers will be able to travel from Miami to Orlando beginning in 2004. Service would start on the Orlando to Miami leg in 2004 and in 2006 the full phase one alignment from Tampa to Miami would b e in place. The prospect of future system expansion to northeast or southwest Florida and perhaps other locatio ns has been considered; however, impacts from those facilities ar e not included in this analysis Table 2 prov i des i nfonmation devel o ped by FOX summarizing the overall project. Page-9

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Figure 5. FOX Implementation Time Line YEAR EVENT AN ANALYSIS OF THE: ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPE::0 RAIL Proposal Submission to Commencement of Full Train Operations Source: FOX. Page-10

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAlL Tab le 2. FLORIDA OVERLAND EXPRESS Project Summary STATE OF FLoRIDA HIGH SPEW RAu.INmAnvo ". FLORlDA OvEiu.Ar.'D EXI>ftEsS ("FOX") i'Ro)ECT SUMMARY The F.Jorida High Spetd iS a poicy i11itiWve cf tmion31 The nitl;al $Y$Wrrl wm operate over 320 rouco mfl;:; H iim!, OtlandQ Wid Twnpa in6 will tmploy the Tt;;.t tr3i n teclw'lolozy, v.ilich fw SOO million cfficltMiy WithQI.Ic 01"1$ in its 16 fem or i n E urope. wl 1: nvel over twm talii'OG6 u tpeeds ct' 200 mph. a1owing tn.Yd dm$$ Qll hol.r 25 m))\1{$$ f.rom Miami to Otbndo d 40 miiWtcS. from co Ort:ancb. Thet"C w;n be oo pe tll'lywh$'C along th e f)'scem. much l ike an lnt$t$CMQ N&'Yw'IY inc.orsoalol'l$ roads. Ststions wou ld be loated :lt Mia m i AA'porc.. W$9:t Broward, We$1 Palm Btacl\. Orlandc> Airport. Otiando Attractiont. Ukd3nd lllld Route :ilisnment ;and cnvlrcnmcnW studkt$ poulbk to downtown Orizncb ;ttd die /lkpott/Wesuhore arEa. s.ooso. Floricb't li:gh spe-ed r:sil pc'Cjea i s a setting public/pri-me tnmportJtlon p;mncr;hlp sponsored by tM State of Florida. i'lUYAtt The FOX will bu i ld the prje
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Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEEO RAIL As a precursor to estimating the economic impacts, this study looked at the transportation benefits expected from the project. These benefits are of interest both because they subsequently contribute to economic im pacts, and indepen dently, as safety, air quality and energy use are among the important considerations in making transportation investments Transportation benefrts accrue to persons choosing to use HSR and for non-users of the system that benefrt from the presence of this transportation aHernative. These benefits take two forms. The first is benefits to the HSR traveler beyond the cost of the fare including consumer surplus, safety, environmental and other savings Second, there are economic and other savings for non-high speed rail travelers using existing transportation modes in the form of reductions in congestion and air pollution as a result of some air and auto travelers switching to this new high speed rail mode. HSR Travel and Traveler Benefits Florida High Speed Rail is projected to carry approximately 6.13 million one-way trips in the year 2010. This will result in approximately 16,780 daily trips averaging 182 miles Forty-six percent of the ridership will be concentrated in the Orlando-Miami segment, with 36 percent and 18 percent in the Tampa-Orlando and Tampa-Miami segments, respect ively. Fifty seven percent of these trips would be made for business purposes, the remainder being tourism and personal travel. Of the total ridership, 31 percent are estimated to shift to high speed rail from air travel, 45 percent would shift from auto, and 24 percent would be new trips induced due to the cost and convenience of h igh speed rail. Of intercity travel between the Florida cities served, approximately 5 percent of highway traffic will be served by high speed rail, while approximately 80 percent of air traffic will be diverted to high speed rail. HSR ridership represents about 11 percent of the tota l travel that starts and ends in the cities served in the Tampa-Orlando-Miami corridor. The average fare is projected to be approximately $64 per trip or $0.35 per passenger mile in 1 gg7 dollars Figure 6 shows the trend of HSR ridership over the first few decades of operation. Several studies have developed ridership forecasts for high speed rail in Florida over the past several years The source of ridership estimates for this analysis is the ridership forecast included in the FOX Pre-Certification Post Franchise Agreement and Page -12

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL supporting documents. This forecast uti lized the extensive f orecast ing work that was carried out by KPMG Peat Marwick in 1993 and further modeling work ca rr ied out by SOFRERAIL, a French firm involved in high speed rail p l anning. Based on that forecast, HSR will serve approximately 1.1 b illi on passenger m i l es of t ravel in 2010, helping meet needs in a state that currently has over 127 bil li on vehicle miles of travel on roa d ways As portrayed by these statistics, HSR would p r ovide a l arge am o unt of serv ice and carry a large ridership, yet in the context of the tota l trave l demand of the State, its r ole, like that of any single project, is more modest. Fi gure 6 Florida H igh Spe e d Rail Ridership 10000 8000 " .. ::> 0 .., -6000 .Q. .., .. 4000 " 0:: 2000 c-II 111 0 2004 2010 20 1 6 202 2 Year 2028 2034 20 40 Source: FOX a n d FOOT Pre-Certification Post Franchise Agreement (PCPFA) and supporting documents Page -13

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METHODOLOGY AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGfl SPEED RAIL This section describes the methodology used in this analysis. The description includes discussion of the theory of economic impact assessment, the analytical model, inputs to the model, methods for estimating the inputs, and the analytica l steps used in developing fore casts The State of the Art of Economic Impact Assessment Transportation fulfills many social needs and is considered an essential component of the infrastructure of a civilized society. It also makes a significant economic contribution to the community. These benefits accrue directly and indirect l y to those who regularly use the transportation investments as well as to those who may not directly use a given transportation facility. This report provides an objective analysis of the economic i mpacts t hat are forecast to result f rom the FOX system. There is no standard methodology for such an analysis and studies have varied greatly i n their approach. However in the more obje ctive resear ch, certain standards are evolving. It is useful to understand the consequences of a ll the resource flows associated with a project but it is also critical to evaluate the economic Impacts in the contex t of the alternative uses to which funds might be put. The basic premise of objective economic impact assessment is that benefrts flow from improvements in transportation systems (e.g., reduced trave l time and cost) and f rom new dollars attracted to an area, not simply from the mere expenditure or movement of funds wilhin a given area Thus simply taking taxpayer or private sector dollars and spending them on transportation as opposed to some alternative use will not necessarily create positive economic impacts. Realizing net positive benefits requires the inflows of new resources and/or the realization of benefrts to travelers that result in savings. (See CUTR 1997 for more on this d is cussion). The economic impacts measured In this report are only a porti on of the total economic benefits that can accrue to Florida An investment such as high speed rail can deliver the tra ns p ortat i on b enefrts and economic impacts as outlined in the remainder of this report and it can have othe r consequences beyond those easily estimated. The full impact of such an investment is realized if the state, ind ividual communities, businesses and the pub lic embrace and fully l everage this investment with complementary policies and investments. Page-15

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL H ig h speed r ai l can be a stimu l us for development of n ew indu s tries in Fl orida. It can be a motivating factor for economic development and growth management activities and a calling card to attract new bus i ness and tourists to Florida It can serve as a critical element in a vision of a sustainable and economically vigo r ous Florida It can symbo lize a willingness to invest in new ideas u se creative public private partnerships and demonstrate i nnovative approaches to problem solving. I t offers the example of a safe efficient and environmentally f ri endly way to meet our transportat i on needs and complements public transporta t ion investments in our urban areas. Some o f these benefits are a fairly straig h tforward resu l t of going ahead with the i nvestment. For examp l e large numbers of construction and operat i ons j obs will occur as a result of a decision to implement. Other economic i mpacts are dependent on the ridership mat eria li z i ng and the transportation benefits being realized by travelers. Still others are dependent on how the public, decision makers and bus i ness community choose to leverage this investment by their decisions to use, serve locate near, co-market with or otherwise t ake adva nt age of this i n vestment. Fi gure 7 schematically shows the flows of money that wi ll occur as a result of a decision to imp lement the FOX system It is from understand ing t hese flows of money and the consequences that they have on the economy that we can estimate the economic impacts of the project on the state of Florida a n d the various regions As the graphic indicates, a p roject of this magni t ude will have a complex interaction with the economy of Florida. Funds come from several sources bot h and outside the state of Florida. The principle stimulus effects on the state of Florida come from new funds entering the state and from the economic benefits associated with the transportation serv i ces that are provided. Thus, the investment by the FOX consortium, the contribut i on of federa l funds and the econom i c benefits associated with the i mproved transportation are the principle pos i tive stimulus effects In unlike other projects that need continued subsidies, this project i s forecast to generate a return on the i nvestment that i s subsequently assumed to be r e i nvested i n later years. The cash flows into and from the project are characterized by a series of arrows. Monies come i nto the project from seve r al sources: FOX, the federal governmen t the stat e government, debt issued and fare revenues The largest source of funds is ta r e revenues Spending by the project returns dollars to the state and other locations. Debt is repaid capita l dollars are spent on constructing and maintaining the system and perhaps expanding it, ope r at ing costs are paid over the lifetime of the franchise and bot h the state and FOX Page 16

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL receive a re turn on their investment in the project. In addition to these economic flows, the transportation setvices provided createdlieir "own etonomic impacts. As characterized in the circle on Figure 7 ridership on the FOX system creates two significant economic stimuli. First it generates the fare revenues that play a major role in the cash flows discussed, and second, it generales additional benefits in terms of consumer surplus, travel time and cost savings, energy and air quality savings, safety benefrts etc. that ultimately have an economic impact of their own These transportation benefits result in savings to businesses and individuals that have real value. In economic modeling terms, that value is characterized by increases in business productivity and regiona l attractiveness that save dollars for businesses and attract additional spending to Florida. These res o urces become part of the state's overall economy as indicated by the large a rrow in Figure 7 Tabl e 3 indicates the spending program associated with the high speed rail system. Table 4 summa rizes the diversion of travel to the proposed high speed rail system. Table 3. Florida High Speed Rail Spending and Revenues Summary (19972043) Sources of Funds Amount (mil.) Spending Cat egory Amount (mil ) FOX Investment $ 349 Capital and Vehicle Costs $ 9 ,141 Federal Inv estment $ 300 Operations $16,608 Slate Investment s 6,556 Debt Payment $18, 943 Passe nger Fares & Other $53,414 Return on Investment $22, 642 Revenues Borrowed Funds $ 7,406 Reserves $ 691 Total $68,025 Total $68, 025 Source: FOX. Table 4. Travel Diverted to the High Speed Rail System through 2043 Source of Travel Passenger Miles (millions) H ighWay Travel Reductio n s 19,002 Air Travel Reductions 24,238 Source: CEFA and CUTR. Page-17

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF F L ORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Figure 7 Economic Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail Source: CEFA and CUTR. j l .o Page-18

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Risks and Uncertainties AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL This analysis on data on project costs (construction and operations) and ridership that were generated during the development of the FOX proposal and subsequent Pre Certification Post Franchise Agreement and supporting documents The p l anning and engi neering work that has produced these numbers represents the culmination of several years and several millions of dollars of investment. Given the Importance of these estimates to the overall feasibility and impacts of the FOX project, additional work is underway to update the ridership forecasts and refine the implementation cost of the proposed system However, the economic impacts presented In this report are premised on the spending and ridership p r ojections developed by FOX to date and used as the basis of the franchise agreement with the State of Florida. Over the life of the project, changes i n estimates of annual ridership fare revenues or costs could cause significant changes i n the resultant f inancia l feasibility and the subsequent economic impacts of the FOX project. The fare revenues generated by the riders of the system are critical in ensuring that paying for the system is not a drain on other revenue sources. Similarly, the presence of significant numbers of riders is a prerequisite to realizing the travel time and congestion r eduction benefits that such a system can produce. Subsequent review of economic impact estimates may be appropriate if ongoing ridership forecasting and engineering cost analysis determine that there are significant differences from current forecasts. Choice of Analytical Tools For this economic impact analysis the project team selected two methodo logi es to use in analyzing eco n omic impacts. An init i al multiplier analysis was carried out using the RIMS II multipliers. This analysis, presented in Appendix A, provided a quick assessment of the economic impacts of the capital and operating spending assoc i ated with the FOX project. The statewide multipliers used in that analysis were obtained from the 1992 Regional Input Output Modeling System (RIMS II), United States Department of Commerce. This RIMS II assessment was also used as a point of comparison with early econom i c simulation analysis in order to aid the researchers in evaluating results. Thus, using both methods enabled a cross check of reasonableness. The economic simulation tool used in the final ana ly sis reported in this document, is the Regiona l Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model. This model, described below, was chosen Page-19

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL because it is the most highly regard ed analytical tools used for this type of analysis. It is used extensively in the public, private, and academic sectors and has withstood extensive review and evaluation over the past several years I t is also a tool used extensively in Florida Description of the REMI Model The sections below are extracted and edited from documentation des crib ing the REM I mo d el. Additional reference material and the model documentation are cited in the re ference section of this report. REMI has developed a methodology commonly used i n soci o econom ic modeling systems over the last frft een years. Its staff has been devoted to two purposes. Firs t they have dedicated the bulk of their resources toward an ongoing research effort that has enabled them to stay at the forefront of regiona l socioeconomic model i ng. Second, they provide high quality c lien t support. including extensive model documentation, unlimited phone consulting to explain input requirements the use and interpretation of the model, and training sessions for clients. REM I models are cus t omized to the particular clienrs region. The models include state and county-specific data for industry-spec ific wage rates, production costs employment, p r ofitabi lity and sa l es prices, as well as consumer prices, housing prices, employment opportunity. p opulation, state and local government spending, investment. income, personal consumption, and many other variables. The wide use of this versat ile methodo l ogy by cl i ents (with data specific to their region} has r esulted in the most well-tested and documen ted modeling system availab le for regional economic impact ana l ysis The widespread use of the REM I methodology throughout the U.S also has led to extensive documentation of the value of REM I model use i n socioeconomic analysis. A $200,000 study, commissioned by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD} and carried out by the Massachusetts Inst itute of Technology evaluated the REM I methodology for determining the impacts of implement ing air pollution controls on the Los Angeles Basin (SCAQ MD, 1993). This study (hereafter referred to as '1he MIT study") evaluated REM I and other socioeconomic analysis models for SCAQMD and came to the conclus ion: Page20

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL "REM/ has the following seven features often unavailable in many other microcomputer-based regional forecasting models: it is calibrated to local conditions using a relatively large amount of local data, which is likely to improve its performance, especially under conditions of structural economic change. it has an exceptionally strong theoretical foundation. it actually combines several different kinds of analytical tools (including economic-base, input-output, and econometric models), allowing it to take advantage of each specific method's strengths and compensate for its weaknesses. it allows users to manipulate an unusually large number of input variables and gives forecasts for an unusually large number of output variables. it allows the user to generate forecasts for any combination of future years, allowing the user special flexibility in analyzing the timing of economic impacts. it accounts for business cycles it has been used by a large number of users under diverse conditions and has proven to perform acceptably. The models incorporate the advantages of the REM I methodology first developed more than 15 years ago. The model has been continuously improved by the creator of the modeling methodology and the founder of REM I, Dr. George I. Treyz. The Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation 53-sector Model (EDFS-53) is designed with the objective of improving the quality of research-based decision making in the public and private sectors. It is calibrated to many subnationa l areas for forecasting and policy analysis by government agencies consulting firms, nonprofit universities and public utilities throughout the United States. Simulations with the model are used to estimate the economic and demographic effects of economic development programs, transportation, infrastructure investments, environmental improvement energy and natural resource conservation programs state and local tax changes and other policy initiatives. Page-21

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL The structure of the model incorporates inter -in dustry transactions and endogenous final demand f eedbacks. In addition, the mode l includes substitution among factors of production i n r esponse to changes in rela t ive factor costs, migration in response to cha nges in expected income, wage re s ponses to changes in labor market and changes in the share of local and export markets in response to changes in reg iona l profitability and production costs. The essence of the REM I model is the extent that theoretica l structural restrictions are used instead of indiv id ual econometric estimates based on single t ime-series observations for each region. The explicit structure of the model facilitates the use of policy variables that represent a w ide range of policy options and the tracking of the p olicy effects on all the variab l es in the model. The REM I model ha s been i n use since 1980. A continuous research effort to refine, expand and improve the model has been underway since that time. The model and supporting research is documented in p ro fess iona l journa ls, i ncluding The American Economic Review The Review of Economics and Statisucs. Growth and Change, and The Journal of Regional Science The current structure of the REM I EDFS model is set forth in an article in The International Regional Scien ce Review and in a book entitled Regional Economic Modeling Measuring Economic Change In applying the REMI model the analysis relies on measuring the ch ange in economic activity between a base forecast and the particular test or tests conducted by the ana l yst. Thus, in th is application sets of REM! economic projections ext rapo l ated to 2043 were employed Albeit forty-seven-year projections by any econometric mode l must be cons i dered to be highly speculat i ve. The reliance on measuring the change in impacts associated with the changing input variab l es diminishes the need to have as high a degree of confidence in the absolute value of the forecasted economic conditi ons. The findings a re indicative of the relative magnitudes of the economic impacts under different The first, the "Baseline forecast simply projects the current Florida economy forward forty-seven years (See Appendix B). The difference between the subsequent forecasts and the baseline forecasts p rov ide the information reported in the economic impact study. Page-22

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Regional Descriptions AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS of: FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL The state was divided into six regions to illustrate the economic impacts of the high speed ra i l on a localized basis. To the extent possible, reg iona l planning council boundaries were used for the economic analysis with a COUP.I. e of exceptions Firs t, Dade and Broward Counties were separate d into separate regions due to the size and complexity of t heir economies. Second, Polk County which has 28.18 miles of track was included into Other Regions of Florida rather than the Central Florida Region due to data limita tions. Tab le 5 shows, by region, the amount of track and other infrastructure to be built and operated and the counties and major cities that make up each region. Of the approximately 319 miles of track, a lmost two-thirds are located in two regions 37.5 percent in the Treasure Coast Region and 28.5 percent in the East Central Florida Regio n Tab le 6 shows the population t rends for the regions and state over the past 16 years. Over t his time period the state grew by an average of more than 315,000 people per year which represents an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent The East Central Region which contains Orlando was the fastest growing reg ion in the state with an annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. It was followed closely by the Treasure Coast Reg ion which grew at an annual rate of 3 7 percent. It is interesting to note that the fastest growing reg ion s are also those where two-thirds of the high-speed rail track will be located. A comparison of the 1996 population estimates for each reg ion is shown in Figure 8. Before comparing the regions it should be noted again that some of tha regions are mu lti -county regions while others are single counties. Caution should be used comparing the Tampa Bay Region, which is made up of f our counties, with a single-county region like Broward or Dade. With the exception of other Reg io ns, which contains 51 counties, the most populous region is Tampa Bay with 2.41 million people in 1996, followed closely by East Central with 2.39 million. Treasure Coast and Broward are the leas t populous regions with 1.43 million and 1.45 million people, respectively. Page-23

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Ta ble 5. Regional Characteristics Reg ions F acilit ie s T ampa Bay Tampa lntermodal Station Connection to Tampa Airport Direct connect ion HART line l oca l t ransit Service and storage facility Eas t Central l ntermoda l Stations (Attractio n s & O rtando Ai rp ort) Direct connection to O r lando Airport Direct connectio n to LYNX bus and ra i l system Full service maintenance fac i lity Operat i ons center T r easure West Palm Beach lntermodal Coast Sta t ion (joint FOX/Tri-Rail station) Connection to West Palm Beach Airport Main t e n ance of way faci lity Broward West Broward l ntermodal County Station Connectio n to Fo rt Lauderdale Airport Dade Mia m i lntermo da l Station Coun ty (di r ect connection Tri Rail, Amtrak and Metro Dade transit) D i rect connectio n t o Miami Airport Serv i ce and Storage facility Other Lakeland lntermodal Station Regio n s Source : FOX, CEFA and CUTR. AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tra ck Count ies Major Cij i es Mile s 26.7 H i lls boro ug h Tampa Pinellas St Petersburg Pasco C l earwater Manat ee New Port Richey Bradenton 90 95 Brevard Palm Bay Lake Me lbo m e Ora nge L eesburg Osceola Orlando Semino l e Kissimmee Volusia Daytona Beach 119.7 5 Indian River Vero Beach Martin Stuart Palm Beac h West Palm Beach St. Lucie Bo ca Raton Ft. P i erce Port St. Lucie 33.50 Broward Ft. Laude rdale Co u nty Hollywood 20.00 Dade M iam i County Miami Beach Coral Gab l es Hialeah 28.18 5 f other F l orida Counties Page 24

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 6. Regional Population Trend, 19801996 Population (thousands) C han ge 19801996 An n ual Average Ann ua l Growth Cha n ge Rate Region 1980 1996 (tho usands) (pe rcent ) T ampa Bay 1,73 0 .9 2,4 1 0.0 42.4 2.1% Eas t Centra l 1 ,305.5 2,393.4 68 0 3.9% Tre asure Coast 800.4 1, 4 34.5 39.6 3 .7 % Broward 1 ,02 5.5 1,454.0 26.8 2.2% Dade 1,641.7 2,093.4 28. 2 1 5% Other Regions 3 ,291.6 5,054 .6 1 10.2 2 7% State Tota l 9,795 6 14,839.9 315 3 2.6% So urce : C EFA and CUTR. Figure 8. F l orida Population, 1996 0 ., c .. 0 4000 0 5 0 ;; 2000 .. 0 ... 801y Coa;.t o ... E3s1 Brv.wvd Other Region$ Region$ So ur ce: T able 6 Employment characte ristics f o r the regions and state are provided in Table 7. Between 1980 and 1996 F lorida's private non-farm employment increase d b y more than 172,900 annually which represents an annual growth rate of 3 5 percent. The regions with the fastes t Page25

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL p opu l ation growth were a lso the ones with the fastest employme n t growth East Central's employment grew by an annual ave r age r ate of 4 7 percent whi le Treasure C o ast's grew by an annua l r a t e o f 4.2 percent. The slowest growing economy over this perio d was D ade with an annu al g rowth of 1.5 per cent. Exclu di ng t h e Other Regi ons, there were three regio n s with similar em p loyment levels i n 1996 as shown i n Figure 9. The Tampa Bay Region had the l argest employme n t base with 1 .15 million, followed closely by East Centra l with 1 .11 million, and Dade wit h 1.01 millio n It i s interestin g to note that Dade County w h i l e having employment leve l s w i thin 100,000 o f Tampa Bay a nd E ast C entra l tra il s in population by more than 300,000 people Tab l e 7 Regional Non Farm Emp l oyment T r e n d, 19801996 Tota l Non -Farm Employme nt (thousan ds) Change 1980-1996 Annual Average Annual Growth Change Rate Region 1980 1996 ( thou sa n ds ) ( perce nt) Tampa Bay 649 5 1 155.1 3 1 6 3 7% East Cent r a l 534 3 1 114.7 36 3 4 7% Treasure Coast 326 2 631.0 19. 0 4 2% Broward 4 08 5 657 0 1 5.5 3 .0% D ade 791. 7 1 ,0 11.8 13.8 1 5% Othe r Regi o n s 1,116 0 2,022 8 56 7 3 8% Slate Tota l 3,826.3 6 592.4 172 9 3 5% Source: CEFA an d CUTR. Page26

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Figure 9 Florida Non-Farm Employment, 1996 25 0 0 -, "8 2000 !'l 0 s= '"' 1500 c E .Sl 1000 Q. E w 500 0 Tamp.a Bay Trea;ure Coa&t East Central Broward Other Reolona Regi ons Source: Table 7. Impact Variables Impact variables in this ana l ysis are those that measure spen din g chan g es and transportation benefrts associated with HSR. These Impact variabl es are summarized below: HSR System Development The total construction cost of the HSR system including certifica t ion and engineering (a f actor was included, indicating what share of total costs wou l d be expended with in the state}. The operation and maintenance costs o f the HSR system (a factor was included, indicating the share of total costs to be expended within the state). User Benefits Increases i n business p r oductivity due to l ower HSR t ravel cost for business t ravel ers as com pare d to alternative modes. Page-27

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Increases in the relative attractiveness of Florida due to addit i onal mode choice for non-business travelers Non-User Benefits Non -user benefits include highway user congestion savings highway air pollution savings, and air traveler congestion savings. These benefits have diffe r ent implications to trips for business and other purposes: Increases in business productivity due to reduction in highway bus i ness travel delays. Reduction in non-business highway travel delays and resulting in improvements in Florida attractiveness Automobile Operating Cost Savings Reduction in automobile operating spending by HSR system users diverted from highways State Contribution Reduction in consumer spending due to s t ate contributions Reinvestment of Net Operating Revenue The State's share of net operating revenue to be used for reinvestment in system expans i on The statew ide values of these impact variables are detailed in Tab l e 8 Page-28

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE. ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPE.E.D RAIL Table 8. Statewide Values of Impact Variables (milli ons of 1997 dollars) I 1997 19981 1999 1 2000 20011 200 2 1 20031 2004 FHSR S ystem Development Roadways 0 0 0.0 0 0 18.9 26. 3 33 9 18.7 7 3 Cons t ruct ion 0 0 0 0 21. 1 291.0 699 4 731.4 697.7 312 3 caten ary 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 60. 3 75.7 45.6 7 7 Telecommunication & Signaling 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80. 0 98. 0 58 0 9 0 Substations 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 26. 1 30 6 17. 5 2.2 Rolli n g Stoc k 0.0 0 0 0.0 31. 0 4 1.4 31.0 0.0 0 0 Insurance 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 R i ght of Way Land 0.0 0 0 0.0 94. 0 126. 3 161 6 0.0 0.0 Right o f way Acq ui siti o n 0.0 0 0 0.0 8 5 11.4 1 4 .6 0.0 0 0 Cert., E n g. and Man agement 50. 6 59.2 88.3 1 03.1 100. 6 107.3 81.3 2 7.6 Main tena nce & Operatio n 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 80 9 FHSR User Benefits Business 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 45. 5 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 Highway Con g estion Savings Business 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 4.1 Other 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 Highway Air P ollution Saving s Business 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 8 Other 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.6 Air Traveler Congestion Sa vings Business 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 Other 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 4 9 Auto Operating Cost Savings Ti res Tubes, a n d Parts 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 (1.4) R epair 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (4.8) I nsurance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1. 1 ) Fue l T axes, Park i n g, & Tolls 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 (3. 5) Fue l s 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 (6.7) State Con tributio n I 0.01 0 .01 0.0 1 0.0 1 (68.4)1 (68.4) (68.4) I (68.4) Relnvesbnent I 0.01 0 0 0 .01 0 .01 o o I 0.0 o.o 1 0 0 Page-29

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 8. Statew ide Values of I mpact Variables (con t inued) I 2005 1 20061 2007j 2008 20091 2010 1 2011 2012 FHSR System Developmen t Roadways 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 2 0.4 Constructio n 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 4.5 10.4 Catenary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.4 0.9 Te l ecommun i cations & Signa l i ng 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 5 1 .1 Sub stat ions 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.2 0 4 Roll i ng Stock 0 0 9 7 12.9 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 In surance 1 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.1 R ight of Way Land 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.8 Right of Way Acquisi tio n 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 2 Cert . Eng . a nd M anagement 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 1.2 2.8 Main t e na nce & Opera ti on 82.3 142.8 145 1 146.6 147.9 149.2 1 50.0 15Q.6 FHSR User Benefrts Business 48.0 108 .1 117 4 123.6 128.8 134.3 137.2 140. 2 Other 26.4 5 9 5 6 4 .6 68 0 70.9 73 9 75 5 77 1 Highway Congestion Savings Business 4 3 9.7 10. 5 1 1 0 1 1 .5 12.0 12.2 12. 5 Ot h er 4 0 7.5 8.1 8.5 8 8 9.2 9.4 9.6 Highway Air Pollution Savings Business 0.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2. 5 2.6 2. 6 Other 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1. 2 1.2 1 3 A i r T raveler Congestion Savings Business 5 5 13.9 14.9 15.6 1 6 3 16.9 1 7.3 17.7 Other 5.1 9 2 9 9 1 0.5 10.9 1 1.3 11.6 11 8 Auto Operating Cost Savings Tires. Tubes, and Parts (1.5) (3.4) (3.7) (3.9) ( 4 .0) (4.2) ( 4 .3) (4.4) Repair (5.4) (11 9) (12.8) (13.5) (14.0) (14.6) (14.9) (15.2) Insurance (1.2) ( 2.6 ) (2 9) (3 0) (3 1) (3. 3) (3.3) (3.4) Fue l Taxes, Park i ng, & Tolls (3.9) (8 7) (9.4) (9.8) ( 1 0.2) (10.7) (10.9) (11.1) F u els (7.5) (16.6) ( 17. 9) ( 18.8) (19.6) (20.4) (20.8) (21.3) State Contribution (68.4J 1 (68.4J 1 (68.4) 1 (68.4J 1 (68.4) (68 .4J 1 !68.4J (68.4) Reinvestment 0.01 0.01 0.0 1 O.OI 0.0 0.01 0.0 0 0 Page

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS l .. .;;; OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 8. Statewide Values of Im pact Var ia bles (co ntinu ed) 20 131 20141 2015 1 20161 2017 20181 20191 2020 FHSR System D evelopment Roadways 0 .7 0.7 0 8 1 0 1 3 1.6 1.8 2 1 Construction 1 6 2 16.8 19.2 25.3 3 1 4 37.5 4 3.6 49.7 Catenary 1 3 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 Tele communiCatio n & Signaling 1.8 1 .8 2.1 2.8 3.4 4.1 4 .8 5.4 Substations 0.6 0.6 0 7 0 9 1 1 1.3 1.6 1.8 Rolli ng Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 In surance 0.1 0.1 0 1 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Right of way Land 2 .9 3 0 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.6 7 .7 8.8 Right o f way Acqu i sit io n 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Cert., En g. and Management 4 3 4.5 5.1 6.7 8.4 10 0 1 1. 6 1 3.2 Maintenance & Operation 151.3 15 2.0 152. 8 153.5 174.3 175. 2 175.9 17 6.7 FHSR User Benefits Busi n ess 143 3 1 46.4 149.6 152.9 158. 9 162.3 1 65.8 1 69.3 Other 78. 8 80.5 82.3 84.1 87.4 89 3 91.2 93.1 Highway Congestion Savings Business 12.8 13.1 13.4 13. 7 14. 1 1 4.4 14.7 15. 0 Other 9.8 1 0.0 10 .3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 Highway Air Pollution Savings Business 2.7 2 8 2 8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 Other 1 .3 1 .3 1 3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Air Traveler Congestion Savings Business 1 8.0 1 8.5 18 9 1 9.3 20.0 20.4 20.8 21 .3 Other 12. 1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13. 5 13.8 14.1 14.4 Auto Operating Cost Savings Tir es, Tubes, a n d Parts (4.5) (4.6) (4.7) (4. 8) ( 4 .9) (5.1) (5. 2) (5 .3) Repa i r (15.6) (15.9) (16.3) ( 16. 6) (17.1) (17 .5) (17.9) (18.3) I n s u ra nce (3 .5 ) (3.5) (3.6) (3.7 ) (3.8) (3.9) (4 0) (4 .1) Fue l Taxes, Parki ng, & Tolls (11 .4) (11.6) (11.9) (12.2) (12.5) (12.8) ( 13 1 ) (13.3) Fuels (21.8 ) (2 2 2 ) (22.7) (23.3) (23.9 ) (24 4) (25 .0) (25.5) State Contribution 1 (68 .4 ) 1 !68 .4 ) (68 .4 ) 1 (68.4) 1 (68 4) 1 (68 .4) 1 (68.4) 1 (68.4) Reinvestment I 821 18 9 29.61 30.5 35.01 4 6.11 57. 1 1 68.2 Page-31

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 8 Statewide Values o f Impact Variab les (continue d } 2021 2022 20231 20241 2025 2026 1 20271 2028 FHSR System Development Roadways 2.3 2.6 2.8 3 5 3 .7 4 .0 4. 3 4.5 Construct ion 55.8 61.9 68. 1 83. 6 89.5 97.3 103.2 109. 1 Catenary 4.6 5.1 5.6 6 9 7 .4 8.0 8 5 9.0 Telecomm un i catio n & Signaling 6.1 6.8 7.4 9 1 9 .8 10. 6 1 1 3 11.9 Subslat i ons 2.0 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.5 3 7 3 9 Rolling Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 I nsuran c e 0.4 0.4 0.5 0 6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Right o f Way La n d 9.8 10 9 12 0 14.7 15 8 17.1 18.2 19.2 R i gh t o f Way Acquisition 0.9 1 0 1.1 1 3 1.4 1.5 1 6 1.7 Cert. Eng a n d Management 1 4 9 16.5 18.1 22.3 23 8 25.9 27 5 29.1 Maintenance & Opera tion 177 5 1 78.6 179.4 180 .2 18 1 .2 182. 0 183.1 184 1 FHSR User Benefits Business 171.8 1 7 4.3 176.7 179.2 181. 7 184.2 186.7 189.2 Other 94.5 95 9 97.2 98 6 100 .0 10 1.3 102.7 104.0 Highway Congestion Savings Business 1 5.1 15.4 15 8 16 2 1 6.6 17.0 17 4 17.7 Other 11.4 11 7 12 .0 12.3 1 2 6 12 9 1 3 2 13.5 Highway Air Pollution Savings Business 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3 5 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 Other 1.5 1.5 1.6 1 .6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1.7 Air Traveler Congestion Savings Business 21. 5 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.6 24 2 24. 8 25. 1 Other 14. 1 14.5 14 8 15 .2 1 5 5 15 .9 1 6 .3 16.6 Auto Operating Cost Savings Ti r es, T ubes and Parts (5 3) (5. 4 ) (5 .6 ) (5 7) (5.8) (6.0) (6 1 ) (6.2) Repa ir (18.3) (18.8) (19 2) (19.7) (20 2) (20 .6 ) {21.1) (21 .4 ) Insurance (4. 1 ) (4.2) {4.3) {4.4) {4.5) (4.6) (4.7) (4.8) Fue l Taxes. Parking, & Tolls (13.4) ( 1 3 7) ( 14.0 ) ( 14.4) (14 7) ( 15 .1) ( 15. 5) (15.7) F ue l s (25 .6 ) (26.2) (26 9) (27 5) (28 2) (28 8) (29.5) (30. 0 ) State Contribution I (68.4JI !68.4ll !68.4JI (68.4) (68 .4 ) (68.4) (68.4) (68.4) Reinvestment 79.3 90.41 101.61 112.71 123 .9 152.2 1 162.9 1 177 0 Pago-32

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AN ANAL YSJS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table 8. Statewide Values of I mpact Variables (continued) I 20291 20301 20311 203 2 20331 20341 2035 FHSR System Development Roadways 4 .8 5.0 5 4 5 5 5.6 5.6 5.7 Construction 115.1 121.1 129.5 131 7 134.4 136.4 138.3 Cat enary 9.4 9.9 10. 6 10 8 11.0 11.2 11 .4 Telecommunication & Signa li ng 12. 5 13.2 1 4.1 14.4 1 4.7 14.9 15. 1 Substations 4.1 4.3 4 6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 Rolling Stock 0 .0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Insurance 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0 9 0 9 0.9 Right of Way La nd 20.3 2 1 3 22.6 23.2 23. 7 24.0 24.4 Right of Way Acquisit ion 1 .8 1 .9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2 2 2 Cert., Eng and Management 30.7 32.2 34.5 35.1 35.6 36 3 36.8 Ma i ntenance & Operation 184 9 165.9 187.1 188. 1 189 .1 189.1 189 1 F H S R User Benefits Business 191.6 194. 1 196.6 199.1 201. 6 204.1 204.1 Other 105 .4 106.8 108.1 109 5 110. 9 11 2.2 112.2 Highway Congestion Savings Bus iness 18.1 18.5 1 9.0 19.2 19. 6 19.6 19.6 Other 13 .8 14. 1 1 4.5 14.4 1 4 .8 14. 8 14.8 Highway A i r Pollution Savings Business 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4 .2 4 2 4.2 Other 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1. 9 1. 9 1.9 Air Traveler Congestion Savings Business 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.9 27.9 27.9 Other 1 7.0 17. 5 17.9 17.7 18.1 18.1 18.1 Auto Operating Cost Savings Tires, Tubes, and Parts (6.3) (6.5) (6.7) (6.7) (6.9) (6 .9) (6 9) Repair (22.0) (22 .5) (23.0) (23.2) (23.8) (23.8) (23 8) Insurance (4.9) (5.0) (5.1) (5.2) (5. 3) (5. 3) (5.3) Fuel Taxes, Parking, & Tolls (16.1) (16.4) (16.8) (17 0) (17.4) (17.4) ( 17. 4) F u els (30.7) (31. 4) (32.2) (32.4) (33 2) (33.2) (33.2) State Contrtbutlon I (68.4)1 (68.4) I (68.4) (68.4) I (68.4)1 (68.4)1 (68.4) Reinvestment I 187.81 198.61 209.4 220.31 235.71 239.71 244.7 S o urce: CEF A and CUTR. Page-33

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC I M PACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL R e gi o nal Allocati on The statewi d e values of the impact variables wer e d isag gregated t o the s i x regions. M ost variables were d i saggregated p r oportionately according to route mil age in each region, as shown i n Tabl e 9 These i nclude : Operation and Mai ntenance Expenses User Benefits Non-User Bene frts Automobil e Operating Cost Savi n g s State Contribution Tabl e 9 R o ute Milage by Regio n and Segment Regi ons R oute M i lage Distribut i o n : Distribution: Entire Route Segmen ts Statewid e 3 19.09 1 00% Tampa O r l ando Altlactlons 83.84 26 27% 100% Tampa Bay 26.7 0 8.37% 31.85% E ast Centra l -West 28.95 9 07% 34.53% O t her Regi o n s 28.18 8 83% 33.61% Or l and o Attractio ns-Miami 235 .25 73.73% 100% East Central East 62.00 19 4 3% 26.35% T reas u re Coast 119.75 37. 53% 5 0 .90% Broward County 33.50 10.50% 1 4.24% Dade County 20. 00 6 .27% 8.50% Sou rce : FOX sp r eadshee t ROWCOST wk4, which shows mil age posts. O ther variables were distribut e d d ifferently Specifica lly, Rein vestmen t o f net operating revenue was assumed to be i n the other regi o ns. System development costs associated w i th s t ations and mai n tenance f aci l ities were allocated to the region s wher e these facili ties will b e l ocated Page 34

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High Speed Rail System Development AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL This and the following sections describe how the individual impact variables were measured for this analysis Construction Construction costs include all capital costs incurred in the development of the FHSR system except for vehicle acquisition. FOX provided estimated capital costs in two spreadsheets: FIN_EST WK1 a LOTUS file, that conta i ns capital costs in 1995 dollars by segments and detailed cost categories; HSRCAS 1.WK4, also a LOTUS file, that contains capital costs in 1g95 dollars by segments, broad cost categories, and years from 1997-2005; Capital costs from these spreadsheets were itemized by the following 20 i ndustry sectors : 1. Certification 2. ROWland 3. ROW acquisition 4 Mobilization/Demobilization 5. Earthworks 6. Roadways 7 Structures 8. Main line 9. Stations 10 Maintenance facility 11. Catenary & Substations 12 Telecommunication & Signaling 13 Systems testing & Commissioning 14 Construction management services 15. Program management services 16. Construction operating costs and profit Page-35

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17. Maintenance equipment AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 18 Program management for maintenance equipment and rollin g stock 1 9 Hazardous materials 20. Insurance These detai led sectors were aggregated into industry sectors that are available in the REMI model. The final set of ind ustry sectors is shown in Table 8. Construction costs were separated into those that go outside the state and those that remain in the s t ate Based on FOX's estimation, construction costs assumed to go outside of Florida include those on: materials for main l ine, except for ties: maintenance equipment; 50 percent of materials for caten ary; 40 percent of materials for telecommunications and signaling ; 10 percent of certification and eng i neering is assumed to go outside the state; and 80 percent of spending on construction insuranc e i s assumed to go outside the state. Rolling Stock Capital costs for rolling stock include the purchasing cost for 21 train sets and costs involved in having them ready for operation It was assumed by FOX that 20 percent of spending on ro lling stock will remain in the s tate for assembly Operating and Maintenance Annual total operating costs for 2004 come from the PCPFA ( Pre-Certificat i on Post Franchise Agreement) Base Case Model, p rovided by FOX. Components of these costs are not prov ided. Page-36

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Consumer Surplus of New Mode This describes the basic methodo log y and assumptions used in applying the basic methodology to measuring FOX user benefits. Basic Methodology The methodology computes changes in consumer s surplus when deman d is represented by discrete choice models (Small, Kenneth A, and Harvey S. Rosen Applied Welfare Ec ono mics with Discrete Choice Models, Econometrica, 49, 1981, pp. 105-130). Consumer's surplus is a concept in economics that measures the difference between what a t raveler is willing to pay for trip making and what it costs to him I f f or examp le, making a trip from Orlando to Miami via FOX is worth $250, but it costs only $200 dollars to a traveler (This is the generalized cost including fare, in-veh icle time, terminal waiting tim e and other components of monetary and time costs) the consumer's surplus of this particular trip would be $50 to him. An individual's demand curve gives the w illi ngness to pay at different levels of trip making The total amount of consumer's surplus at a particular le ve l of trip making is the area to the left of his demand curve and above the cost of trip making. One of the most used discrete choice models in transportation research is the multinomial logit model for mode choices (Ben-Akiva, Moshe and Steven R. Lerman, Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, the MIT Press, 1985). One behavioral assumption of these models is that an ind ividual chooses the mode that would give him the highest level of utility The level of utility an individual would get from a mode depends on observed characteristics of the mode Including monetary costs and time spent traveling and waiting, a n d on unobserv ed, random factors. The observed componen t of uti lit y may be written as follows: ( 1) where = monetary cost of trip making per unit of time via mode m Page-37

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= = = AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL in-v ehicle-time of trip making per unit of time v i a mode m waiting time of trip making per unit of time via mode m coefficients to be estimated Fo r commuting mode choices, the cos t variables would be measured for the round trip per weekday. Alternatively, Um may be written as U = ll ( c 0 2 wt ) m mllmllm (2} The three terms in the parentheses give the generalized cost of making one trip via mode m: The probability of an individual choosing mode m is given by : p = m (3) (4) The denominator above gives the maximum utility an ind iv idual can get from the ch oice snuat ion Assuming that only one trip is made per untt of time this maximum utility can be used in the basic methodology to measure the consumer's surplus to an individual as follows: CS = 1 L ellG ll m (5) where -ll is the marginal ut i lity of income The economic benefits of a policy or program to an indivi dual per unit of time would be t he change in CS as a resuh of changes in the Page-38

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL generalized costs due to the policy or program. This measure is inde pendent of the chosen mode. Assumptions Applying the basic methodology to estimating the user benefits of FOX requires the following, which are discussed individually below. Specification of the demand model; FOX ridership by source and trip purpose for forecast year 2010; Generalized costs with and without FOX; and Extrapolating economic benefits for non-forecast years. Specification of the Demand Model For this analysis, it is assumed that a choice is made among highway, air, and high speed rail for making each one-way trip between a pair of origin and destination. If we let G0 G G" be the generalized costs per one-way trip for car, air, and high speed rail, respectively, the consumer's surplus per trip can be measured by the following: (6) where 13 was obtained from FDOTs Florida High Speed and Intercity Rail Market and Ridership Study, Florida Department of Transportation 1993 The FDOT study estimated separate models for business trips and other trips. These models give a 13 value of -0.02078 for business trips and .01675 for other trips. The development of high speed rail would result in a decrease in G" from an infinitely large value G8 (an infinitely large value is equivalent to services not being available) to a finite one G"" HSR may also result in changes in G0 and G, from G"c and G" toG\ and G\. For each trip shifted from car or air to high speed rail, the economic benefit is the change in consumer's surplus given by Page 39

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL (7) Onl y two terms appear in the first pair of parentheses above because the exponential value of an infi nitely large negat ive number is zero. For i nduced high speed rail trips, the economic benefi t is assumed to be half of that for diverted trips. The total economic benefits of all high speed rail trips for a given trip purpose between a given pair of orig in and destination can be measured by the following : (8) where N0 N., and N are the numbers of high speed rai l trips that are diverted from cars, diverted from air, and induced, respectively, for that trip purpose and origin-destination pair. These economic benefits may be summed over trip purposes (business versus others) and over origin-dest i nation pairs to get the overall economic benefits for the entire corri dor. A similar methodology was used by Charles River Associates (CRA) for estimating the user benefits of the p ropose d high speed ground transportation system in Californ ia (telephone conversation with Mark Kiefer of CRA). CRA's methodology differs from the one used here is that it estimates the user benefits for each bi-mode market ( i.e., HSR versus a ir, HSR versus highway, etc.) and then sums them to get the tota l user benefits. A version of CRA's methodology i s in "Estimating User Benefits for High Speed Ground Transpo rtat ion Systems, Brand et al., Compendium of Technical Papers, 1994 64th ITE Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, October 16-19, 1994. FOX Ridership by Source and Trip Purpose for Forecast Year 2010 FOX ridership by source for 2010 was obtained f r om the FOX proposal to FOOT (FLORIDA OVERLAND EXPRESS, Florida High Speed Transportation System, Proposal presented to FOOT High Speed T ransportation Program, October 1995, Appendix Table 11-1.13 and Table Page40

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 11. A-5) Append i x Table 111.13 gives ridership by source and ori gin-destination pairs for all trip purposes. Information i n Table II.A-5 was used to separate ridership by trip purposes (business versus other). For example, Appendix Table 11-1.13 gives a total r i d e rship of 1,671 between Orl ando and Miami in 2010 wi t h 401, 60 5 and 665 being diverted from car, diverted from air, and i n duced, respectively, wh il e Tabl e II .A-5 gives a 43-57 split for trips between bus i ness and other purposes Minor modifications in these forecasts were subs e quent l y made by SOFRERAIL, adjusting the sensitivity analysis and the totals slightly These final numbers are show in Figure 6 in this report Computing Generalized Costs with and without FOX Two major assumptions were made in how generalized costs for FOX users a re estimat e d because of inadequate informat i on for forecast year 2010. First the generalized costs of trips made on car and air m o des do not differ between with and w i thout tha high speed rail. This assumpti o n tend s to underestimate ec o nomic benefits bec ause the presence of high speed rail tends to reduce them. Second the genera li zed costs of car and air modes are 1 0 percent highe r than that of high speed rail for forecast year 2010. The rationale i s that we have more informat i on on high s p ee d rail than the other modes for computing generalized cos t s with r easonab l e co nfidence. The generalized costs o f car an d ai r m o des are higher for FOX usens because they wou l d not shift modes otherw i se. The exact p erce n tage difference in genera liz e d costs between high speed rail and othe r modes is somewhat arbitrary, lacking data for a n esti mate. SensHivity tests were d o ne with different per centages of marku p A percent markup was c h ose based on t hese tests. Add itiona l assumptions were used in computing the generalized cost of high speed rail for FOX users. These Include: 1 ) T ermina l time = 12 minutes 2). Auto acc e s s d istanc e = 10 mi l es 3). Auto egress distance = Smiles 4). Access parking cos t = 4 dollars ( 1995) 5). Egress taxi cost 7 dollans (1995) 6) FOX users p a ying economy fares Page-41

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 7). a). 9). Business Other Auto driv ing cost = = = 75% 95% $0 14 per mile (1995) Auto access speed = 30 mph Value of time sav ings (line-haul, access, egress, terminal) Business = $56 per hour ( 1995) other = $15 per hour (1995) The assumptions on terminal time, auto access and egress distances, access parking cost, auto driving cost and auto access speed were adopted from FOOT's Flo rida High Speed and Intercity Rail Market and Ridership Study 1993. The unit values of time savings r epresent s imple averages of those estimated as part of the FOX proposal for different station pairs as shown i n Appendix Table 11. 12 FOX's estimates we re based on the 1992 survey of intercity travel in Florida as part of the FOO T study mentioned above Sensitivity t ests were also conducted w ith different values of t ime. The percentages of FOX users payin g economy fares were assumed to b e r easonable Extrapolating Econom ic Benefits for Non-Forecast Years The estimated econom ic benefrts for 2010 we re extrapolated to other years according to changes in ridership. Changes in ridership were approximated by changes i n projected fare r evenues i n constant dollars by FOX. Nominal fare r evenues came from Pre-Certification Post-Franchise Agreement, by and between FOOT and FOX Novembe r 12, 1996 Non-User Benefits Two types of non-users were cons i dered : r emaining highway users a n d remaining air travelers Esti m ati on of non-user benefits is summarized in Figure 10. The basic in format io n used in estimating non-user benefits is passenger miles diverted from highway and air, respectively The number of passenger miles diverted was estimated with two types of information: distance between station pairs and ridership diverted from highway and air by station pairs (Tampa-Or1ando, etc.), trip purpose (business and others), and year (20042043) Page42

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Information on distances between station p airs came from a spreadsheet from FOX that contains milage posts and station location along the FHSR system: ROWCOST.WK4. Distances for selected station pairs were shown in Table 1. Ridership info rmation was derived from the FOX proposal, PCPFA, and subsequent supporting documents. Specifically, Appendix Table 11-1.13 of the proposal provides information on the sources of total ridership for the year 2010: diversion from highway, diversion from air, and induced travel. The distribution of ridership among these sources Is shown in Table 10. Figure 10. Summary of Estimating Transporta tio n Benefits Impacted Group Subgroup ,. Induced User Benefits Swnclled From Air SWHclled from Auto Type of BeMfit Methodology for Estimating -----.,_. Consumer Surplus,..--->-> Demand Curves Congestion Savings / Infrastructure ---,:. Capacity Savings Remaining Roadway Users Congestion Time > Speed Change /.. In duced Trip Value Capacity Savings Air Quality Savings __ .,. Savings per VMT Non-User Benefits \ Remaining T ravelers ___,. Congestion Savings lnftastructure -->-Savings per VMT VMT = Vehi cle Miles of Travel Source: CEF A and CUTR. Page-43

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AN YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC I M PACTS OF HIGH SPEED Tables II.A-2 and II .A-3 of the proposal provide busi ness and othe r purp o s e ridersh ip. respectively by station pairs f o r 2004 2020. For years 2021-2043. ridership is assumed to grow at the same rat e as fare revenues in real terms. Fare revenues grow at 1.85 percent annua ll y for 2021-2033 and stays flat for 2034-2043. Information on fare revenues comes from the PCPFA Base Case Model. Selected ridership informa tion is shown i n Tabl e 1 0 Table 10. FHSR R i d ershi p f o r 2010 b y Trip Purp ose. Sou r ce. a nd Se l ected Sta tion Pairs Ridership In Thousands Station Pairs Business Other Total Car A i r Indu ced Car Air I n duced T ampa Orla n do 164. 8 2 4 8.7 273. 4 217.4 328.0 360.5 1592.7 Or l a ndo Miam i 648. 2 28 1 193.1 233. 7 10 1 69 6 1182. 8 M iami-Tampa 20.9 168 0 56.0 12.5 100 7 33.6 341.5 System Total 1565.6 1065. 7 851.3 1188. 3 808. 3 646.1 6126.0 Source: FOX and FOOT Pre-Certification Pos t F r a n ch i se Agreeme nt and other documents H ighway User Benefits Highway user benefrts take two forms: reduction in trave l delays and i m p roved air quality. The esti mation of these two forms i s discussed sepa r at e l y below Congestion Savings When some highway users change m ode t o use the FHSR they free up capacity on existing highways The benefits of this diversion to rema i ning users may be estima ted w ith alternative app roaches. Three approaches were used: infr astruct u re savings congesti o n time savings. and induced travel va l ue. They a r e assumed to be equivalent. The average o f the i r res ults gives the congestion savings to remain i ng highway users due to the FHSR. Page -44

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Infrastructure Saviog AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL One approach to measuring congestion savings due to diversion of highway users to the F H SR Is to measure the cost of providing the freed up capacity by diverted highway users. Estimating the infrastructure savings involves several steps: The first step uses data on FHSR ridership diverted f r om highway by station pairs to calculate the number of FHSR passenger miles diverte d from highway. This was done for each year over 2004-2043 and for business and other purposes separately. The sec ond step estimates the amount of vehicle mil e s reduced, which was estimated with information on passenger miles diverted from automobiles and info rmat ion on vehicle oc c upancy for intercHy trave l in F l orida. Th e estimation of passenger miles diverted was d iscussed earlier Vehic l e occupancy was derived from the 1 9 92 Statewide Survey of Intercity Tra vel in Florida as shown in D-5, Florida High Speed and Int ercity Rail Market and Ridership Study: Technical Appendi ces, 1993 The o verall occupancy was 2.2 for all purposes. Vehicle occupancy was assumed to be 1 5 and 2.5, respectively, fo r business an d other purposes, which are consis t ent with the overa ll o ccupancy and the s h a re of i ntercity trips for business purposes (28.5 percen t ) as reported in Exhib i t D-1. The third step est i mates lane miles capacity freed up as a result of vehicle miles reduced This is done as follows: where: LM = VMT = c = K, = LM = VMT K1oo c 365 lane miles freed up annual vehicle miles reduced lane capacity 2200 veh icles per hour (9) k factor, 0.11, r epresenting th e proportion of average annua l daily traffic occurring i n the 1 OOthhighest h o ur of the year Page -45

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL The fourth step estimates the annual cost per lane mile of highway, including operationlmaintenance costs and annual i zed capita l costs. This is done as follows: AC = CCa +OM (10) where : AC annual cost per lane mite cc capital cost at $2,012,520 per lane-mile a amortization factor, assuming a 30 year life at 7 percent OM annual cost for operation/maintenance at $20,000 per lane mile The final step estimates the cost of freed up capacity by combining the results from steps 3 and 4. Congestion Time Savings Another approach to measuring congestion savings is to measure congestion t ime savings as a result of changes in travel speeds for remaining highway users. The estimation involved the following steps: The first step assumes a 4-lane highway parallel to the FHSR between Tampa and Orlando and Miami with an operating speed of 70 miles per hour with the FHSR. The second step estimates percent reduction in vehicle miles traveled as a result of diversion of highway users to the FHSR. The third step estimates decreases in speed from 70 miles per hour without the FHSR. Speed was assumed to decrease by the same percentage as vehicle miles traveled. The fourth step estimates time saved for remaining highway users who travel during peak periods, which are assumed to include 40 percent of all vehicle miles traveled. Page-46

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL The last step estimates the dollar value of time saved. The value of time used was $56 per hour for business purposes and $15 per hour for other purposes, which are the same as those used in estimating FOX user benefits. See discussion there on why these values were chosen. I nduced Travel Value The dollar value of freed up capacity t o induce d travel was estimated by applying an average va lue per passenger mile to the total amount of passenger miles diverted from highway travel. Three steps were invo lved in the estimation: The first step uses data on FHSR ridership diverted from highway travel by marKet segments to ca lcu late the number of FHSR passenger miles diverted from automobiles. This was done for each year. in 2004-2043 and for business and other purposes separately. The second step estimates an average value of induced travel per passenger mile. A Seattle study by ECONorthwest estimated that a reasonable value for travel ranges from 7 cents per passenger mile in 1994 to 12 cent s per passenger mile in 2020. The range from a 1 994 study by Litman is 3 cents to 17 cents per passenger mile A value of 7 cents per passenger mile in 1995 d ollars was used for this estimation. The last step uses the resuHs from the first two steps to calculate total value of freed up capacity to induced travel. Air Quality The d ollar value of improved air was estimated by applying an average cost of air pollution per vehicle mile traveled to the total amount of vehicle miles reduced. The estimation was done separately for business and non-business trips. An average cost of 1.7 cents per vehicle miles traveled was assumed. The same unit cost was also used by Economic Research Associates in an economic impac t study of the HSR p roposed in California. The amount of vehicle miles reduced was estimated in estimating congestion savings for highway users. Page-47

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Air Traveler Congestion Savings AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Aviation sector savings take the fonn of reduction in travel delays to remaining air travelers. The reduction in trave l delays results from freed up air capacity because of diversion of air trave lers to the FHSR system. The dollar value of this reduc tion in travel delays was measured by the infrastructure costs to provide the freed up a i r capacity. Other approaches to ll)easuring this dollar value of reduction in travel delays were not used because of lack of readily available data The calculation involved three steps: The first step uses data on FHSR ridership diverted from air by market segments to calculate the number of FHSR passenger miles diverted from air. This was done for each year in 2004-2043 and for business and other purposes separately. The second step uses infonnation on costs of ai r infras tructure provided by both p u blic and private sectors to calculate some average infrastructure cost per passenger m i le for business and other purposes separately The last step uses the results from the first two steps to calculate aviation sector savings The main assumption here on parameter values is that infrastructure cost is 7 and 5 cents per passenger mile for business and non-business purposes respectively. These average costs are based on a review of airline operating costs data for US domestic commercial carriers Cost allocation information includes several categories that include capijaJ costs in cluding vehic l e leases and airport landing fees Detailed data on capital costs are not available and short-hau l, smaller aircraft flights like those in Florida may not be typica l of industry averages. In addition, there are some who fee l that the aging aircraft fleets, airport facilitie-s and air control systems are evidence that the industry is not investing in capital in proportion to the fully amortized capital costs. Total domestic airline operating costs (including aircraft lease and airport landing fees) is approximately $0. 13 per passenger mile. For purposes of this analysis the 7 and 5 cents per passenge r mile estimates were used. Page-48

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Automobile Operating Cost Savings Diversion of highway users to the FHSR reduces spending on automobile operation. This reduction of spend ing reduces economic activity through the state and has a negative impact on employment, jobs, and gross output. This reduction in automobile spending was estimated by applying unit costs to the amount of vehicle miles reduced. A unit cost of 16 cents per vehicle mile was used This number was documented in the economic impact study by Economic Research Associates for the HSR proposed in California. State Contribution The state will contribute $70 million annually in nominal terms from 1999 though 2001 and a four percent increase thereafter until 2039. Although the contribution will come from existing funding sources, they can be spent within the state on alterative uses without the FHSR. This analysis assumed that consumer spending will be reduced by the same amount. Reinvestment of Net Operating Revenue The FHSR was projected by FOX to generate net operating revenues for 2013-2043 after operating and maintenance expenses and debt payments. These revenues will be allocated between the State and FOX with a 80-20 split. The State's share was assumed to be reinvested in an extension of the FHSR from Orlando to Northeast or Southwest Florida. Translation of Impact Variables into REMI Variables Some of the impact variables can be directly used in the REM I model, while others need to be converted before being entered in the REMI model. Specifically, impact variables that measure transportation benefits for business travelers (HSR users and non users) need to be converted into a REMI variable that represents productivity gains; impact variables that measure transportation benefits for non-business travelers (both HSR users and non users) also need to be converted into a REM I variable that represent Florida attractiveness; and all others which represent changes in spending, can be directly used. Table 11 shows the correspondence between the Impact and REM I variables for this analysis. Page-49

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL I mpact variables that measure transportation benefits were converted as follows, following REMI's recommendation. Transportation benefrts for business travelers by region were divided by the tota l amount of production in that region to obtain a percentage. This percentage was then i nput into the REM I model as a relative productivity adjustment for all business sectors Transportat ion benefits for n o n-business travele r s by r egion were divided by the total amount of wages and salaries in that region. The result was then multiplied by 0.351, which r e presents the sum of REMI 's internal migration coefficients. The final nesult was then input into the REM I model as an attractiveness factor for migration into the region The values of REMI variables for each re gion are shown i n Appendix C Page50

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 1 1 Input Variables and Their Use i n Analytical Steps Impact Variab l e REMI Vari a ble (in dollars) Descr iption I UnitT Type No. Steps HSR System Deve lopment Roadways new roads $ translator 37 1,2,3,4 Constructio n new non-building facilities s translator 40 1,2 ,3 .4 Catenary electric distributing sys tem $ t ranslator 85 1,2,3,4 Telecommun i cations/Signa l i n g telep h one apparatus $ translator 90 1,2,3,4 Substatio n s e l ectrica l equipment and suppl i es $ t ranslator 95 1,2, 3 4 Insurance insurance carriers $ translator 167 1,2,3 4 ROW/land rea l estate $ translator 169 1,2,3.4 ROW Acquisition lega l serv i ces $ translator 198 1 ,2,3, 4 Cert/eng/managemen t eng irteer ing and architecture $ translator 210 1 2 ,3,4 Rolling Stock railroad equipmen t $ translator 105 1,2,3,4 O p erating a n d Mainte n ance railway tra nsp ortat ion $ translat o r 2 6 5 1 2,3,4 FHSR User Benefrts Busin ess Trave l relative productivity adjustme n t % regu lar 1320 2 3,4 Other Trave l m i gratio n amenity factor % pop u l ation 11 2,3,4 Highway Congestion B e nefits Business Travel r e l ative productivity adjustment % regu l a r 1320 2 3,4 Other Trave l migrat ion amenity factor % pop u l ation 11 2 3,4 Highway A i r Pollution Savings Business Travel re l ative productivity ad j ustment % regu l ar 1320 2 3 4 Other Trave l mig r ation amenity factor % population 11 2,3, 4 Air Travele r Congestion Savi ngs Business Travel relative prod u ctivity adjustment % regular 1320 2,3, 4 Other Trave l migration amenity factor % population 11 2 3,4 Auto Operating Cost Savings Tires, tubes and parts t i res, tube s and parts $ trans l ator 222 2,3,4 Au t o repa i r auto repair $ trans l ator 259 2 3,4 Aut o insurance auto insurance $ translator 261 2,3,4 Fuel taxes, parking t olls h i g h ways state & l ocal government $ t ranslator 342 2 3,4 Fuels demand change in petroleum products $ regular 669 2 ,3,4 State Contribution !decrease In purchas i ng power I s I regu lar 960 3,4 Reinvestmen t I Allocated to system cost categories I s I I I 4 So u rce: CEFA and CUTR. Page51

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL REMI Analytical Steps T h e final REM I ana lys is was divided into four cumulative steps, each step i n clu ding o n e more set of impact varia b les than the p r evious one. These s teps are summarized in Tabl e 12 a n d discussed in the following paragraphs. Tab le 12. Analytical Steps Step Impact Variab les 1 System Development System Development 2 Automobile Operating Cost Savings Transportation Benefits System Developmen t 3 Automobi l e Operat ing Cost Savings T r ansp o rtat io n Benefrts State C o ntribution (reductions in c o nsumer spending) System Development Automobi l e Opera t ing Cost Savings 4 Transportat ion Benefits State Contribut i o n (reducti ons in consumer spe n d ing) Reinv estment Source: CEFA a n d CUTR. Step One The first is to enter into the modeling software category by c ategory estimates of FOXHSR construction and operation expenditures for each year of the project franchise. For examp l e during the construct io n phase 1997-2004 each major expenditure category s uch as land purchase, road building station development is iden t ified and assigned a REM I input var iable type. S i m i larly over the life of the project (2005-2043) each major expend itu r e required to opera t e the HSR system, such as rolling stock and ope r ation and ma i ntenance is i dentified and also as s igned a REM I input variable type (see Tabl e 11). Page-52

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Assignment of these variable types allows the REM I software to take these HSR expenditure inputs and translate them into economic impact o ut puts Each dollar expended on this project interacts with each region's unique industrial miX multipliers and thereby translates these economic variable Inputs into direct and indirect project generated increased employment, earnings and production outputs. This first s tep impact assessment is similar to the kinds of impacts measured by the RIMS i l input-output modeling described in Appendix A and compares favorably with those estimates Step Two The REM I modeling software allows for dynamic simulation of multiple positive and negative project cash flows into a single analytical framework and therefore more real istica lly measures a project final marginal economic costs and benefits. This powerful feature a llowe d researchers to simulate the effects of project transportation bene f its and disbenefits with the positive economic impacts of step one. In this ste p the reductions in automobile related economic activity (reduced spending on fuel and other vehicle operating costs, auto a cci dents and so forth) result in decreases (or disbenefits) in economic activities across the regions. These reductions in economic activities were combined with the estimated positive economic effects of enhanced transportation sav ings associated with use of the HSR mode over the auto and air modes. Transportation benefits were translated into REMI variables as guided by the REMI model creator and distributor Each benefit is a measure of the region's relative enhanced economic productivity and attractiveness. Business travelers' gains are measured by use of a regular policy variable 1320 which translates time savings into rea l productivity gains across all industrial sectors (see Table 11). Non-business traveler consumer surplus is translated into enhanced relative regional economic attractiveness which stimulates a regions' economic migration coefficient population policy variable 1 1. By assigning these two (opposing) economic stimulation benefit and disbenefit factors separate REM I input variable types for each year they are forecast to occur (as in step 1) they are trans late d into regional gains and losses in employment, in come and productivity output. These gains and losses are obviously relative to their scale across each year of the project and are slmuHaneously integrated into the economic stimulation estimated in step 1 Page -53

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Step Three AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL F i nancing the F l orida HSR infrastructure will require annual public gas tax expenditure of $70 mill ion revenues over the 1999 time period. Economic theory indicates that use of publ i c tax r evenues results in declines in consumer spending proportionate to those tax collections. The REMI model can estimate the reductions i n economic activity associated with this decline in consumer spending through a decrease in the regu lar policy variable 960 (see Tab l e 11). Step 3 in this analysis estimated these publ i c tax related declines in consumer purchasing power comb ined with the economic impacts of Steps 1 and 2 Step Four Finally ridersh i p and revenue forecasts project a pos i tive cash flow for this project beginning in 2013. That is the Florida FSR project is expected to generate enough r evenues to pay all of the anticipated operation and capi t al expenditure annual debt payments after the first nine years and generate a growing dollar profit thereafte r The estimated of this positive cash flow will start at $8. 2 million in 2013 and grow to $244 7 mill ion by 2035 It is possib l e that a significan t share of these surplus project revenues will be reinvested to prov ide expanded HSR service to other regions of Florida The most l i kely initial areas for expanded service include the northeast and southwest regions of the state. Step 4 in this analysis treats eighty percent of these annual system generated revenue surplus as reinvestment dollars to expanding HSR services beyond the current corridor boundaries. New HSR reinvestment spending for construction and development across these other regions of Florida were assumed to be proportionate across the same variables identified in the Miami-Tampa corridor (see T able 11). No i ncrementa l investment for operation or rider benefits or subsequent project cash flows were simulated in this reinvestment Step As with the earlier phases of this analysis the economic impacts of this fina l step was simultaneously in t egrated into this comprehensive REM I mode l ing analysis This final step completed the comprehensive REM! modeling methodology and the conclusions of this final simulation for both the state of Florida as a whole and fo r each of the s i x regions of the state are repo rt ed in the Findings sect ion of this report. Detailed sta tewide and regional model economic impact output results are provided separately in Appendices D and E for the interested reader. Page54

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FINDINGS AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL This section provides a prof ile of the final employment, wages and private non-farm output impacts on the Florida economy emanating from investments in the construction and operation of the F l or ida-FOX High Speed Rail Project. The total employment, wages and salaries and private non-farm output estimates are each provided for each year of the HSR franchise. A detailed description of the four step REM I modeling procedure and variable input s used to complete this analysis are provided in the methodology section of this report. Statewide Impacts T able 13 provides REM I estimates of the economic impacts from Step 1, which includes the direct construction and operati on expendijures associated with develo p i ng and operating the HSR system from Miami to Tampa Table 14 provides the enhanced employment, wages and output increases associated with Step 2, which includes increased transportation benefits and disbenefit for each year of the franchise combined with Step 1. Table 15 prov ides the employment, wages and output reduct ions associated'With Step 3, which includes $70 million state gasoline tax revenues (that translates i nt o REM I model consumer spend i ng power declines i n each year of investment) oomb ined wijh Steps 1 and 2 Finally, Table 16 provide final REMI model forecasts of employment, wages and private non-farm output increases associated with HSR project excess revenue reinvested in a new HSR alignment in Florida combined wijh each earlier step. The discussion provided in this section will focus on Step 4 economic imp acts with a brief descr ipt i on of regiona l impacts in the next section. Page 55

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tab le 13 Economic Impacts of the Fl o r ida High Speed Rail : State of Flor ida (Step 1) I--131 240:1 11 Source : CEFA and CUTR .8< 1.: 58.9 zoo '1.6 Page 56

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AN ANAl YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FlORlDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 14. Economic Impact of the Florida High Speed Rail: State of Florida (Step 2) Year TOIS.I =i 120. n 26C 2 c4: 171 .r. it=====4 113: 2( 202 117. Ws 1 I 2.E r------;;; .. t====j"l1 r--:m 02' 185. Source: CEFA and CUTR. .. 1,0 s Page 57

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 15. Economic Im pacts of the Florid a High Speed Rail: State of Florida (Step 3) Y ea r 'otall i years "' 201 0 1: 'u 7 (4.' 21 20 20 j---;1L Source: CEF A and CUTR. =I i 5.ill] Page58

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AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 16. Economic Impacts of the Florida High Speed Rail: State of Flor i da (Step 4) Y e ar '"' 200 200 20C 20C 1 /1(. 20 20 20 20 7-1------..:r ===:::=:::tl f--==t;t--------,i' 8 +-----;;>1 Source : CEF A and CUTR Page 59

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Fig ure 1 1 provides a profile of the cumulat i ve REM I projected employment shifts each Step incrementally generates. There is an i nitial construction su rge in HSR related employment activities in the early years of the project (1997 through 2004) followed by a decline in new employment created by this project (2005 through 2009) foll ow ed by gradua l and growing employment recovery through 2043. These short term declines in new job creation are exp l ained by the interaction of economic market forces of l abor supp l y and demand with in each region responding to the initial massive cap i tal construction dolla r volume infusions. Pr ior to this la rge construction related cash infusion employment markets are in balance The price paid labor is in equilibrium the amount of labor available i n the market. When the billions in construction investments begin to p our into the Florida HSR corridor regions many n ew prospective employees are attracted to come from outside these regions to where these n ew jobs a r e now being offered. Wage rates may increase slightly to attract new employees to help to meet these new employment demands and that in tum generates additional immigration of la b or. When the construction period is complete the reduction in new job creat ion (since the massive construction activijies are now over) generates the opposite economic reaction. There is an initial surplus of workers in this region s labor market and addijional new la bor f r om outside the regio n is not as attracted to migrate into this reg i on (although normal immigration o f labor wou l d likely continue). S i nce this surplus of labor cannot find as many jobs i n the r egion they then tend to return to pre-construction m i gration patterns and look to other regions to re-dep loy these excess employment levels. This creates short term dislocated employment where the HSR project is not creating as many new jobs of the kind initially required for cons1ruction activities. The ongoing operations activities cannot in itia lly absorb t he n umbe rs and categories of employees (construct i on crews etc. ) within its operations Thereafter over the period 2010 through 2043 HSR operations gradually i ncrease direct and indirect employment across the corridor overc ome this short term dislocation and begin employing considerable numbers of Floridians across a wide spectrum of industries. This in i tial $5.3 billion investment in corridor construct ion and development generates significant employment increases in each year of construction that peaks in 2002 with 21,218 jobs in t he Step 4 final analysis. Total HSR related cons1ruction activities are estimated to create 78,1 02 direct and indirect t otal job years of employment over this 1997-2004 construction period The ensuing period of HSR operation over the 2005 through Page 60

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC I MPACTS OF FLORIDA SPEED F igure 11. Sta t ewide Empl oyment I mpacts -c: E ,., .2 Q. E ILl 0 c: "' .. "' " 0 >.c: c: .... 0 "' Q. 30 Step 1 Step 2 20 *Step 3 sStep 4 1 0 0 0 1997 2003 2009 201 5 2021 2027 2033 2039 Year Source: Tables 13-16 2043 i nc ludi ng t he short term five yea r d is l o c ation period, resu l t in an additiona l HSR project generated 167,200 ad d itiona l direct and ind i rect tot a l job years o f e mployment across Florida. In total the Flor i da HSR project will generate 252 ,888 direct an d indirect jo b years o f emp l oyme n t across the state over the perio d of t h e franch ise (See Tab l e 16) An ident i cal pattern of wage and salaries forecast e m erges from the REM I generated regiona l HSR induced project economic s timulus This initial $5.3 b i llion i nvestment in corrido r construction and devel o pment generates significant wage and salaries i ncreases in each year o fconstnuction that peaks in 2002 with $749 million In fina l HSR earnings in the Page -61

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL S tep 4 final analysis. Total HSR re l ated construction activi t ies a r e estimated to create $2.8 billion direct and indirect total job earnings and wages over this 1997 2004 construction period. The ensuing period of HSR operation over the 2005 through 2043 including the sh o rt term five year disl ocation period result in an a dditional HSR project generate d direct and indirect job earnings and wages o f $5 7 bill i on of wage earn i ngs acr o ss Florida. In total the Florida HSR project will generate over $8.5 billi o n d irect an d indirect job related wages a c ross the state ove r the period of the franch i se. (See Ta b le 16 and Figu r e 12) Figure 12. Statewide Wage and Salary Impacts 2500 20 00 .. 0 0 .... 1500 "' "' 0 1000 ., c 0 ::;; 500 0 500 s tep 1 .step 2 s tep 3 8step4 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 Year Source: Tables 13-16. HSR p r oject generated additional direct and indirect private non-farm outpu1 of $26.4 b illion across Florida. In total the Florid a HSR project will generate over $34 b ill ion d i rect and Page-62

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMI C IMPACTS indirect pr i vate non-farm o utput rel ated ga ins across t he state over the per i o d of the franchise. (See Tab l e 16 and Figure 13). F i gure 13. Statewide Economic Output Impact 250 0 step 1 .st e p 2 .. 2000 .step 3 !! 0 0 13s tep 4 .... 1500 "' "' 0 1000 c 0 :::; 500 0 -500 19 9 7 2002 2007 201 2 201 7 2 022 2027 2032 2037 2042 Year Source: Tables 1 3 1 6 Page -63

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Regional Impacts AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL As described i n the Methodology section of this re port the REM I model analysis described in this section generally distributes econom i c investments and operationa l expenditures among the regions proportionate to the linear miles of HSR track planned for that region. There for e the REM! mode l generates direct and indirect employment, wages and output in similar proportions Also as the Methodology section described, five of the reg i ons (Tampa Bay. East Central Fl orida. Treasure Coast, Broward County, and Dade County) roughly cover the planned HSR corridor alignment. The exception to th is rule i s a brief portion of the alignment in central Fl orida that passes through Polk county This section of the alignmen t is attributed to the sixth region that encompasses all of the rema i ning "other regions" of Florida. The REM! model generates both region specific economic impacts and e xtra regional imp acts from each r egional specific construction or operational dollar expended Therefore the sixth othe r" Florida region picks up a variety of economic impacts from each of the other regions. For examp le l abor migrates in and out and among each of the six regions and materials and services are suppl ied to and from and among all regions as industrial structure and demands dictates This combined with the Polk county share of the HSR alignment partitioned to the sixth r egion generate co nsiderable economic st i mu lu s t o (and from) t h is sixth r egion. Finally in Step 4 of the analysis the reinvestment of HSR related revenue surp l us to "new HSR alignments elsewhere in Florida also generate substantial economic s t imulus to the sixth region. Steps 1 through 3 (those not inc luding the re in vestment option) reflect p r oportional economic stimulus to corridor alignment in the Other Regions. The final step creates this substant ial reinvestment that generates a considerable increase in economic stimulus in this region (relative to the others) and the r efore a considerable increase in employment earn i ngs and output in that region. Tables 17 -2 0 and Figures 14 16 provide final S t ep 4 of the Florida HSR induced in creases in annual regional employment, earn i ngs and output ove r the years of the franchise Excluding the reinvestment expenditures described above i n the other regions of Florida the largest HSR alignment is in the East Central and Treasure Coast regions. Total construction and operations empl oyment for these regions a re 58 661 and 44 253 person Page64

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL years over the period of the franchise or average annual employment of 1 249 and 942 person years respectively. Employment impacts in the other regions vary from 15,097 to 23,136 in total person years in Dade and Tampa and from a low of 321 to 492 per year in these regions. The Other Regions (with reinvestment included) generated 96,043 jobs with an annual average of 2,043 person years of employment created due to HSR franchise Investments Tota l construction and operations wages and earnings for these regions vary between $.56 to $1 78 billion for Dade and East Central Florida respectively over the period or average annual earnings of between $12 to $38 m illion per year over the period of the franchise. The Other Regions (with reinvestment included} generated total f ranchise earnings of $3 86 b illion in total annual earnings and a period average earning of $82 million annually. Finally, total direct and indirect non-farm output generated from the Florida HSR construction and operations for these regions vary between $2.54 to $8.26 billion for Dade and East Central F lorida respectively over the period or average annual output of between $54 to $176 million per year over the period of the franchise. The Olher Regions (with reinvestment included) generated total franchise earnings of $10.95 billion in total annual output and a period average output of $233 million annually Note that the sum of regional impacts differs from statewide impacts as directly reported by REM! and shown in Table 16. The difference results from the deflators used in converting REMI results, which a re in 1992 dollars, into 1997 dollars. Specifically, the deflator used for conv erting statewide impacts differ from deflators used for converting regional impac ts Page-65

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 17. Economic Impacts of the Florida High Speed Rail Project: Regional Summary (Step 1 ) Employment Wages & Salar ies Tota l Output person years millions 1997 $ millions 1997 $ Regions Ope. Ope. Cons-Opetruction rations Total truction rations Tota l ttuetion rations Total T ampa Bay 9,136 7 102 16.238 303 269 572 846 925 1,77 1 East Cenltal 24,748 14,915 39, 663 867 551 1 418 2,341 1,951 4 292 T reasure Coast 24.254 10. 062 34 316 876 367 1.243 2,420 1 ,27 1 3 ,691 Broward County 9 712 5,589 15,301 366 215 581 935 716 1 ,651 Dade County 7 533 6,383 13,916 303 284 587 770 945 1 715 Other Region s 9,231 9,369 18,600 292 341 633 824 1,137 1,961 Tota l 84, 614 53.420 138,034 3 007 2,02 7 5 ,034 8,136 6,945 15,081 Source : CEFA and CUTR. Table 18. Economic Impacts of the Florida High Speed Rail Project : Regiona l Summary (Step 2) Employment Wages & Salari&s T otal Output Regions person years millions 1997 $ miUions 1997 $ ConsOpe. ConsQpe. Cons-OpeT otal Tot a l Tota l truction rations tructi on rations truction rations Tampa Bay 9,098 21,521 30,619 302 591 893 848 2 ,944 3,792 East Central 24 635 57,162 81, 797 863 1 ,39 2 2.255 2,348 7.708 10, 056 Treasure Coast 24, 130 43,890 68,020 871 1 02 1 1 892 2,430 7,066 9,516 Broward County 9 659 15,271 24,930 364 446 810 936 2,405 3 341 Oade County 7 ,50 9 14,742 22,251 302 581 883 77 1 2.407 3, 178 Other Regions 9,192 22,725 31,917 291 689 980 829 3,140 3,969 Total 84.223 175,311 259,534 2 993 4 720 7 7 1 3 8,162 25, 690 33,852 Source: CEFA and CUTR Page-66

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tab l e 19. Econom i c I mpacts of the Flo r ida High Speed Ra il Project: Regional Summary (Step 3) Emp l oyment Wages & Sal aries Total NonFa r m Output millions 1997 S m ilfions 1997 $ Regions Cons-OpeCons-OpeCons Opetruction rations Total truction rations Tota l truction rations Tota l Tampa Bay 8,430 11.972 20,402 285. 3 330 1 6 1 5 4 793.8 2 ,069. 3 2,863 1 East Centra l 22,847 30,828 53,675 824.6 732.8 1 ,557. 4 2 216.8 5,577.0 7 793.8 T r easure Coast 22 ,522 21,188 43,710 833. 9 429 8 1,263 7 2 308 7 5,174.7 7,483.4 Broward County 8,968 5,581 14,549 346. 1 1 57 5 503.6 991.1 1 532.5 2 413.6 Dade Coun ty 6 9 1 3 6 175 13,099 284 4 278.1 562.5 716. 8 1 ,499. 5 2 ,216. 3 Other Regions 8 424 12,009 20,433 272.0 384.7 656. 7 770.3 2,172.1 2 942.4 Tota l 78,104 87,753 165 ,857 2 ,846. 3 2 313 0 5, 1 59.3 7,687.5 1 8 025. 1 25,712 6 Source: CEFA and CUTR. Ta b le 20 E co n o mi c Impacts of the F l orida High Speed Rail Project: Regiona l Summary (Step 4) Employmen t Wages & Salar i es Tota l Non Farm O u tput Reg ions millions 1997 $ millions 1997 S Cons-O pe-ConsOpe-Cons-OpeTota l T o t a l T otal truclion rations ti'Udion rations t ruction rations Tampa Bay 8,430 14,706 23.136 285 44 6 731 794 2,372 3,166 E a s t Cent r a l 22,847 35,834 58,681 82 2 96 1 1 ,783 2 ,217 6,044 8,261 Treasure Coast 22,522 21,731 44.253 834 4 5 1 1 ,285 2 ,309 5 ,263 7,572 Broward County 8 968 6,712 15,680 346 212 558 881 1 .675 2,556 Dade County 6,913 8,184 15,097 284 382 666 7 1 7 1,819 2,536 Other R egions 8,4 24 87,619 96,043 273 3,585 3,858 770 10, 176 10,946 Total 78 104 174,786 252,890 2,844 6 ,037 8 88 1 7 ,688 27 349 35,037 Source : CEFA and CUTR. Page-67

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORiDA HIGH SPEED RAIL F igure 14. Regional Employment I mpacts per Year E 2500r-------------------------------------, ., .2 Q, E 2000 w 1500 0 12 .. c: 0 1000 t:! 500 ., Q. 0 Source: Table 20. Tam pa Bay T reasure Co ast Dade Co u nty E as t Central Broward County Othe r Regions Figure 15 Regional Wage and Salary Impacts per Year :!! 80 0 0 60 a> -0 "' c: 0 : : Source: Table 20. 40 20 0 Tampa Say Treasure Coast Dade county Eut Central B roward County Other Regions Regions Page68

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AN ANAL YSJS OF THE ECON OMIC IMPACTS Figure 16. Regional Outpu t Impacts per Year "' !!! 0 0 ,._ < "' -0 "' c: 0 "' ::! Source: Table 20. 250 200 150 100 50 Tampa Say Treasure Coasl Oade County East Cen tr a l Browacd County Ot her Regions Regi ons Page-69

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL REFERENCES Allport, Roger J. and Mark B. Brown. "The Economic Benefits of the European H igh Speed R ail Networl<." Preprint. Transportation Research Board. 72nd Annual Meet i ng. January 10 14 1993. Washington, D.C American Associat i on of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) "A Manua l on User Benefit Analysis of Highway and BusTransit Improvements 1977." W a shington, D.C.: AASHTO, 1 978 Ben-Akiva, Moshe, and Steven R. Lerman, 'Discrete Choice Analys i s: Theory and Application to T r avel Demand." Boston: M I T Press, 1985. Brand et al., Estimating User Benefrts for High Speed Ground Transportation Systems." Compendium of Technical Papers 64th ITEAnnual Meeting October, 1994. Bureau of Transportation Statistics "High-Speed Ground Transportation for America ." U S Department of Transportation [http://www.bts.gov]. August 1996. Bureau of Transportat i on Statistics. Procedures tor Emiss ion Inventory Preparation. Volume IV: Mobile Sources [ http://www.bts gov/NTLJDOCS). 1996. Center fo r Urban Transportation Research. An Analysis o f the Economic Impacts of Urban Transit Systems on Fl orida's Economy." Report prepared for the F l orida Departmen t of Transportation and the Florida Transit Association 1997 Center for Econom i c Forecasting and Analysis and Center for Urban Transportation Research Potential Statewide Impacts of Florida s P r oposed H i gh Speed Rail System." Worl
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL ECONorthwest, "Benefit-Cost of RTA Plan: Working Report. Washington Research Council. 1996 Florida Department of Transportation and Flor i d a Overland eXpress. Pre-Certification Post Franch ise Agreement. November 12, 1996. Florida Department of Transportation Flor ida High Speed and Intercity Rail Market and R idership Study." Working Report. July, 1993. Florida Overland EXpress (FOX). Flor ida High Speed Transportation System." Volume 1. Working Report, Florida Department of Transportation, High Speed Transportation Program. October, 1995 F l orida Overland EXp ress (FOX). "Florida High Speed Transportation System: Volume 2. Working Report, F l orida Department of Transportation, High Speed Transportation Program. October, 1995 Fl oyd, Susan S., 1996 Florida Statistical Abstract. 13th edition. Gainesville FL: University of Flo r ida. 1996. Greenwood, Michael J et at, Migration Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials." American Economic Review. Volume 81, number 5. December, 1991 p.1382-1390. Levinson, David et al "The Full Cost of Intercity Transportation -A Comparison of High Speed Rail Air and Highway Transportation in California." Berkeley: lnsmute of T ransportation Stud i es, Un iversity of California at Berkeley. June, 1996 Lieu S. And George Treyz. "Estimat ing the Economic and Demogra phic Effects of an Air Quality Management Plan: The Case of Southern California." Environment and Planning. Volume 24 number 12 December, 1992. p. 1799-1811. Litman, T "Transportation Cost Analysis: Techniques, Estimates and Implications. Victoria Br it ish Columbia Transport Policy Instit ute. 1994. Page-72

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Lynch T A. "Energy-Related, Environmental, and Economic Benefits of Florida's Hi gh-Speed Rail and Maglev Systems P r o p osals." Transportation Research Record 1255, Washington D.C. : Transportation Research Board, National Research Counci l, 1990. Lynch, T.A. "The Economics and Financing of High Speed Rai l and Maglev Systems in Europe: An Assessment of Financing Methods and Results w i th the Growing Importance of Public and Private Partnerships and Implications for the U S Center for Econ omic Forecasting and Analysis, Tallahassee: Florida State University. March, 1995. Nat ional Research Council "Environmental Issues : Noise Rail Noise and High Speed Rail." Transportation Research Record 1143, Washington D C : Transport ati on Research Board. 1 988. "Policy Analysis Applications of REM I Economic Forecasting and Simulation Models." International Journal of Public Administration 1993 Regional Economic Models, Inc. Operator's Manual for a Multi-Region EDFS-53 Foreca stin g and Simulation Model Volume 2 Amherst MA: Regional Economic Mode l s Inc. July, 1996. Rickman, DanS., "Alte rnative Labo r Market Closures i n a Regional Forecasting and Simulation Model Growth and Change. Volume 24, numbe r 1. Winte r, 1993. p. 32-5 0. Rickman Dan S et al "Multi regional Stock Adjustment Equations of Residential and Nonresidentia l Investment." Journal of Regional Science Volume 33, number 2, May, 19 93. p. 207-219. Shao, Gang, Building U.S. National and Regional Forecasting and Simulation Models." Economics Systems Research Volume 5, number 1. 1993 p. 6 3-77 Smail, Kenneth A., and Harvey S. Rosen, "Applied We l fare Econom i cs wnh Discrete Choice Models." Econometrica 49, 1981 pp 105-130. Page-73

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Thomps o n Chris and Tim Bawden "What Are the Potent i al Economic Deve l opment Impacts o f H i gh Speed Ra i l? Economic Development Quarterly. V olume 6 Number 3 August 1992, p 297 T r eyz, George 1. et al. The Dynam i cs of U S Internal Migration ." The Review of Economic and Statistics Volume 75, number 2 M ay 1993. p 209. T reyz, George. "The E mp l oyment Sector of a Reg i ona l Po l icy S i mulation Mode l ." The Review of Economics and Sfatislics 1980. Treyz George "Prediction the Economic Effects of State Policy Init i atives." G r owth and Change. Vol ume 12 num b e r 2 A pril 1981 p. 2 9 T r eyz, George 1., "Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Po licy Ana l ys i s Norwe ll : Kluwer Academic Pub l i s her, 1993. p .506 Treyz, George. The REMI Econom i c Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model. International Regional Science Review Volume 14, n umber 3. 1992. p. 221-253. U.S. E n vironmental P rote ction Agency Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors. Vol ume II: Mobi l e S o urces AP-42 Ann Arbor, Ml: Sep t e m ber, 1985 Vickerman Roger. "The Economic Impact of H i gh S p eed Ra il. Transit Economics September/October 1996. pp. 63-70. Page 74

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Appendices

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APPENDIX A AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Technical Findings: RIMS II Multiplier Analysis of Economic Impacts I ntroduction Historically the capital investment community has used a variety of methods to assess the economic impacts of capnal investments. One of the commonly used methods is multiplier analysis. This methods enables a quick response approach to determining the economic impacts of project spend ing. This appendix states the objectives of this analysis, presents the resuHs, and identifies some of the issues im portan t to fully understanding the results. This task was designed to provide support to the FOX team by deve lo ping ini tial estimates of economic impacts. The methodology and scope were restricted to quick response approaches to estimating the employment wage and gross state output impacts associated with the capnal and operating spending for building and operating the FOX system. This information, developed by applying recognized economic impact multipliers to information gleaned from existing FOX documents, is helpfu l in communicating the nature and magnitude of the economic impacts of the FOX project. In addition, this approach enabled the researchers to contract the multiplier analysis results with preliminary REM I results in order to assess the reasonableness of the results Specifically. The REM I analysis was ini tially run inputting only the n et and gross spending (not including any consumer surplus beneffls, financing draws, reinvestment revenues, or spending reductions on other modes). These resuHs were then compared with the multiplier analysis. The multiplier analysis, while less sophisticated and interactive than the REM I model, enables the reader to get a good assessment of the impacts associated with the spending. A -1

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RESULTS AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table A-1 summar i zes the economic impacts o n jobs earnings and output that would be expected f rom the FOX investment. These estimates are calculated for both the new spending that would result from imp lementa ti o n of FOX as well as for the total FOX spending that would occur The spending on the FOX projecl is likely to sustain a large amount of economic activity in the state. The FOX project is expected to invest $11 ,474 million (1995 dollars) on captlal and operations during the 47 years from 1997 to 2043 II is estimated that229,648 person-years of employment, $7,655 million ( 1995 dollars) in h o useh o ld earnings, and $19 151 million (1995 dollars) in gross state output will be associate d with this spending Tabl e A-1, Economic Impacts of FOX Spending Economic Impacts Spending Earnings Output (millions of Employment (millions of (millions of Type of Analysis 1995 dollars) (person-years) 1995 dollars) 1995 dollars) Net New Spending (federal and FOX contributions) $649 10,550 $249 $743 Gross Spending (total capital and operating) $11,474 229 648 $7,655 $19,151 These economic activities, however, are for total spending on the FOX project. A fuller appreciation for the net impact of the FOX p roject is estimated by look ing at net new revenues associated with the dec i sion to implement. Almost 94 percent of the spending on capital and operations (the revenue contributions by the State of Florida and the spending on t ravel by the travelers) would be expected to occur in the absence of FOX. The other six percent will A-2

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL originate from the FOX consortium and Federal government. In the absence of the FOX project, the resources originating within the state may well be spent on other transportation investments. Any net changes in economic activity as a result of these funds being spent on FOX versus another transportation investment cannot be estimated without a more detailed plan as to how those revenues would be spent in the absence of the FOX investment. Additionally, the FOX project is intended to earn sufficient revenues to reimburse the state spending later in the project life. The economic impact of these revenues entering the state spending stream is also not estimated The net economic impacts of the FOX project on the Florida economy would be those from the net new spending of $649 million over the 9 years from 1997-2005. It is estimated that 10,550 jobs (person-years}, $250 million (1995 dollars} in household earnings, and $750 million (1995 dollars} in gross state output would be generated becaus e of the net new spending from the FOX consortium and Federal government. Fi gures A 1 and A-2 present the multiplier analysis in tabular form. Figure A -1 i s the analysis of the net impacts. The top third of the page shows the spending plan by year and cost category. The middle section of the page shows the multipliers by cost category for jobs earnings, and output. The bottom section of the page shows the impacts in both tabular and graphical form. Figure A 2 shows the same information for total spending. METHODOLOGY The application of multipliers is relatively straight forward. However, as with any analyses of this type, it is very important that t .he reader understand exactly what was assumed and how the work was carried out. The following issues are discussed: general strategy, source of multipliers, selected users of RIMS II, sources of spending information, FOX application, and assumptions General Strategy Multipliersfactors that indicate how much economic activity, earnings, and employment will be generated by a given investment are applied to estimates of the spending for a project of A-3

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS RAIL in t erest. The mul t i pliers a r e recognized factors prov ided from outside sources that apply to generic spending categor i es. The spending is based on estimates of cost for the project of interest. The resultant est i mates of jobs earnings, and economic outp u t are indications of the impact that the particular spending will have on the economy. This i s only one of many poss i ble ways to assess the impacts of such a project. A more comprehens ive econom i c impact analysis i s being conducted that will include measuring the economic impacts of the traveler benefits Other impacts in areas such as land use, tourism, and additional land development are not specifically captured in this type of analysis Source of Multipliers The statewide multip l iers used in the analyses are RIMS II multi p liers. They were obtained from : 1992 Regiona l Input-Output Modeling System ( RIMS II) UnHed States Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic analysis (BEA) Reg i ona l Econom i c Ana l ysis D i vision Washington D.C 20230 BEA provides such multipliers for a set of 471 detailed industries and a set of 38 agg r egated industries, respective l y These multip l iers reflect total I mpacts inc l uding both direct and indirect impacts Direct impacts refer to the initial, first round effects Indirect impacts occur when the direct impacts lead to ripple effects throughout the economy A 4

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AN ANAL YS / S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A$1ure A-1. RIMS U Analysis of FOX and Federal Dolla r Contributions QO AHO RC CONTRIB1ITJOHS .TED 8Y \"EAR AHD OOST CAl"EEOORV .., ... RIGHl' OF-Y """""""' -""""""""' -...... """ ......... .................. woT.,. ....... IHITAfl """"' IN !l1Aft moe< tNa u .ta = .... lot? .. .. 10 .. .. $1.31 2 1 1 1,101 .. .. .. .. $13,120 .... .. "' 10 "' ..... $ 1),8$2 "' .. .. .. "s.m .... .. .. .. $1.251 $.2,422 $21,787 .. .. ..... 2000 $5.41 1 $ 195 .,., .. $ 1 7,854 $ 1,121 SG0,24S $853 $18l $100,90$ 2001 $7.0$51 ,.. .... 13,717 $49,88 2 .. 10,123 n.961 $ 19,497 .... $ 1St $185,193 ... ... ,.. $3HS $47> ..... ....... .. 1$,111 S$15,785 $ 1 197 .. .. .... .$14$.710 .... $0 $0 .. ...... U1,1t4 $0 $4.21$ $0 &> $598 ,, ... $SUO> -$0 .. $0 ...... $17,301 .. 11 ,411 .. "' .... 1 ; 145 .,...,. 1 -.. .. .. I 1210 SL818I .. -.. sol .. .. ... 1 ...... ....... .. ..... .,.. S t 147 1 112.7S2: S$.273 _,.. ,,_,, .... ,..., ...,.. ...., N A L DEMAND lWLTIPUERS FROid RIMS I I RI
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC I M PACTS OF FLORIDA H IGH SPEED RAIL F".gure A 2 RIMS II Ana.'y$is cl Total Pro;ect Capital and Opera!ions $pending f i'IXI"Jt.PifA I\, 'I() OPE.'V. TING S9Nt:CNG .......... -CI-V ------""""''iT"' '"''"" .. IT.o;t -' '""''"" -... "" ., ., ., ., .. """' So4UOO .. .. .. to to ., .... .., .... I 00 so so .. ....,. "'"" .. '"I so so .. .. ....., "" .. .. .. .. se.coo ....... .. .. .. .. .. .. $114,21:11 2000 S90,06S .,..., ...... .. SU7.1t0 ....., $102m'? $fl9,040 "'"" S 10,v2 S2,718 .. .. ....,.. ""' I "' .. ..,. ""-"' ....... .. S tano ... $ 1 0,672 U-718 .. .. St.m..21 S "" $ 15oC,83 7 u sr S24, ., S974 .7toll .. $101 ,.SS "' "" $10,872 U.718 .. .. S1,.rl7,$32 ""' .. .. .. _,..! ..,.,, .. $79 ... 7$ .. StU12 S:. 'l10 .. .. -..... .. .. .. $ 1t,021 ""-"' .. 528, 1061 so .. $ 1 0.072 $2.?3 $20.1$7 $$7,370 .. .. ,.., .. .. .. $1,744 .. ,,._ .. .. ...... $1,$1 0 S20AO $.14.)17 .. .. .. .. 1 """" utooo! .. $1013.331 :S...'129.&&1 $1$.4'97811 $33S. f41 l St3.1'14 ""'0 Si&?-48 S3.3M.2SO S30.000 ""' "' $1)0,200 ....... "' toofnU3.9'77 is.c..au.2G81 $11.'773.&68 FIWil. Ci!""'N O M UL TtPUERS FROM ENWS a I -------= -IIWU?Jllt .. n .. n: ....,, .. .,. .., -... I -X -... I -00000 1$.74$0 -ooool 0.0000 1 9.3928 i 0.0000 1&.7244 20.01S4 """" '""' -0 ..... -0 .0000 ...... ...... 0 .7967 um 0.5730 O.flll<'lnl -I """' ,, ,,... 0 .0000 1 .700!1 ...... '""' ..... 1 .901 4 ECOt\'Oii'IC IMP.r.CTS OF I t .... ::.:=::-. 1 I ree--o.--.r.o-. FOX CAI'ITAL A""' "6-":Tl\'C SPVIOIHG I -...... .,..,. ; 5: 11 ... - i-I' a i' '"' I 1 .t1tl sc$ 1 .,,. ' I ' ..,I ' I '"' s-t:t """"" I l. "" '" '"' I I i ' I,., 13.UOj "" .. ,. ' ' ""' "''"I ""'I $2. 118 w 1 . E I 3 I ,...,I '"' "' "'"" .... Sl,9tS $10 ' I 11.96& .... "" f : : i""' u:!l ""' "" I-' J J w J . . 114 .8V' ...... $11029 ,_,_.. __ I _, ___ ., ______ .,.. 241 .SNo $7025 v .. v A-6

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' AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Selected Users of RIMS II These muHipliers are used to evaluate economic impacts of spending proposals by a variety of government en!Hies. The following list comes from Eric Repice of the BEA on J u ly 2, 1996 It indicates the range of users of this information. LocalfS1ate Agencies California Department of Transportation City of Savannah Georgia Idaho Department of Water Resources Kansas City Chamber of Commerce New Yor1< State Energy Office Northern Central Council of Governments Siouxland Interstate Metropolitan Planning Counci l Southeastern VIrginia Planning District Commission Utah Office of Planning and Budget National/Federal Agencies Army Corps of Engineers Argonne National Laboratory Research Triangle In stitute Un iv ersities Northeastern University Rutgers University of Florida University of A labama University of Kentucky A-7

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Source of Spending Information Spending info rmation comes from data provided by FOX, including : 1. a LOTUS file FIN_EST.WK1, that contains capital costs in 1995 dollars by segments and detailed cost categories: 2. a LOTUS file, ROWFOX.WK3, that contains right-of-way costs in 1995 dollars by mileage posts; 3. a LOTUS file, HSRCAS"1.WK4, that contains capital costs in 1995 dollars by segments, broad cost categories, and years from 1997 -2 0 05; 4. a hard copy of the PCPFA Base Case Model that con t a in s operating costs in nominal dollars from 2004-2043; 5. a hard copy of a summary of costs i n 1995 dollars by broad cost categories; and, 6. a hard copy of operating costs by categories and years from 2004-2033. These cost estimates are based on the FOX proposal and will be refine d over time as additiona l engineering is co mpleted and corridor and service decisions are finalized. Capital costs are based on HSRCAS"1 WK4, which uses the following cost categories: 1. Certification 2. ROWland 3. ROW acqu isition 4 Mobilizat ion/Demob ilizat ion 5. Earthworks 6. Roadways 7. Structures 8. Mai n line 9. Stations 1 0 Maintenance facility 1 1 Catenary & Substations 12 Telecommunication & Signaling A 8

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS RAIL 13. Systems testing & Commissioning 14. Construction management services 15. Program management services 16. Construction operating costs and profit 17. Maintenance equipment 18. Initial rolling stock (16 train sets) 19. Program management for maintenance equipment and rolling stock 20. Hazardous materials 21. Insurance Annual total operating costs for 2004-2043 come from the PCPFA ( Pre-Certification Post Franchise Agreement) Base Case Model. Components of these costs are not provided. FOX Application For this FOX application two separate analyses were carried out. First, an analysis of the impact of the new spending was developed by applying the multipliers to the new monies that will be spent as a result of the implementation of the FOX project. This approach is used to provide estimates of the net impact that is caused by the new" money, monies that would most probably not be spent in Florida if it were no t for this project. This scenario measures economic activity created only by these new dollars These new dollars are the federal dollars being sought to support the project and the dollars provided directly by the private sector. Both federal and private sector financial contributions are spent early In the project's overall life providing near tenm economic impacts. This is not the total economic impact of the full project, and, depending on how funds would be spent in the absence of this project, is only an estimate of the net or marginal impact. The results of the first analysis are detailed in Figure A 1. It has five components: spending by year and cost category, RIMS II multipliers, economic Impacts in numerica l values, job impacts in a graphical fonm, and earnings and output impacts in a graphical fonm. The second analysis calculates total economic impacts associated with implementing the FOX A -9

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL project. This approach applies the muHipliers to the total stream of spending for the FOX project. Thus, total spending on capital and operation is used as a basis for detennining the impacts of the project. This much larger number reflects the full direct and indirec t impact of the project's spending. The results of the second analysis are detailed in Figure A -2 Again, the figure has six components. In addition to the five cost categories used in Figure A 1, Operating Labor and Other Operating and Maintenance are also used. Assumptions Numerous assumptions are made in the process of developing these estimates. They relate to: cost categories; classification of these cost categories to RIMS II industries ; share of spending for imports; interest payments; distribution of Fed and FOX contributions by year and cost category; and inflation rate. Cost Categorjes Five categories of capital costs are used, aggregated from the 21 categories listed earlier : Right-of-way land acquisition for real estate services acquisition for legal services Construction Mobilization/Demobilization Earthworks Roadways Structures Main line A -10

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AN ANAL YSJS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Stat ions Maintenance facility Catenary & Substations Telecommunication & Signaling Maintenance equipment Hazardous materials Construction operating costs and profit Implementation Systems testing & Commissioning Construction management services Program management services Program management for maintenance equipment and rolling stock Certification and Engineering Rolling stock Insurance Tw o categori es of operating costs are used: operating l abor costs and other operating costs. The latte r also includes all maintenance costs. RIMS II Industries The cost categories correspond to RIMS II industries as follows: Cost Categories RIM II Industry Industry Code Right-of-way Real Estate Real estate agents etc. 72.0201 (471 industry) Right-of-Way L ega l Legal services 73.0301 (471 industry) Construction New and maintenance construction 11. 0000 (471 industry) Implementation Business services 34 (38 industry) Rolling stock assembly Railroad equipment 61.0300 (471 industry) Insurance Insurance 30 (38 industry) A -11

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Operating Labor OtherO&M Personal Consumption Railroads and Related Services 91.0000 (471 indus try) 65.0100 (471 ind ustry) I t is important to match categories of spending as closely as possible to RIMS II industries Multipliers can vary significantly across industries. For example, Persona l Consumption Expenditures has an earnings multiplier of 1.3777 while that for Railroads and Related Services is 0.5730 As a result, the earnings impact of a given amount of spending can differ substantia lly between being spent on labor versus being spent on non-labor costs for operating and maintenance of intercity rai lroad services. For example, $1 million of Federal funds can generat e $573 thousand in earnings if it is spent on non-labor costs for operating intercity railroad serv i ces, while it can generate $1,378 thousand in earnings if i t is spent on paying labo r costs Imports Spending i s allocated between in-state and out of state. Spending that is assumed to go outs ide t he state has no impacts on Florida's employment, earnings or output. Construction costs are separated into those that go outside the state and those that remai n in the state Construction costs assumed to go outside of Florida include those on: materials for main line except for t ies; maintenance equipment; 50 percent of materials for catenary; and 40 percent of materials for telecommunications and signaling. Implementation costs are also separated into those that originate inside the state and t hose f rom outside the state Ten percent of certification and engineering is assumed to go outside the state. Other implementation costs are assumed to remain in state. Twenty percent of spending on rolling stock (21 train sets) is assumed to remain in the state for assembly. Twenty percent of spending on construction i nsurance is assumed to re main in the state. A -12

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS SPEED RAIL Right-of-way land costs are separated from acquisition costs because land costs are assumed to not have any impacts. Acquisition costs are further separated between those for real estate services and those for legal services. Operating Costs Operating labor Is assumed to be 26 and 25 percent of total O&M costs for the first 20 years and the remaining 20 years, respectively The percentages are based on the sixth data item listed earlier. Interest Payments Interest expenses are not included in the spending stream therefore total spending does not match total project revenues. State ReimbursemE:nt Expenditures to reimburse the state are not included in the spending stream therefore total spending does not match total project revenues. Federal and FOX Contributions In the first analysis the specific source of funds is linked to an assumed category of spending. Specifically, FOX's contribution to certification and engineering is assumed to be spent during 19971999, based on the PCPFA Base Case Model. FOX's other contributions is assumed to be spent on the initial rolling stock with 30 percent, 40 percent, and 30 percent spent In 2001, 2002 and 2002, respectively. Federal contributions were distributed to cost categories and various years between 19972005, according to the distribution used in HSRCAS-1.WK4. Federal contributions were not distributed to rolling stock. This link of Federal and FOX contributions to cost categories is necessary since different categories of spending have different multiplier effects. The significance of this assumption is that the private sector spending by FOX goes substantially toward the purchase of rail vehicles from a foreign source. Thus, the economic Impact of that spending on Florida is minimal. A -13

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Dollars The starting point of the analysis is to convert all monetary uni t s to 1995 dollars. Capital costs f rom FOX were a l ready in 1995 dollars. O&M costs, however was deflated to 1995 dollars using an annual rate of 3 percent. Earnings and o utput impacts are obtained by directly app l ying RIMS II muHipliers to spending in 1995 dollars. Job impacts, however, are obta i ned by first deflating spend i ng further to 1992 dollars and t hen applying RIMS II multipl i ers. This is necessary because the mul tiplie rs were developed wfth 1992 regional economic data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A 14

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPA CTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL A PPENDIX B Baseline Forecasts by Region TABLE 8 1 : S'JPO. SUI'.ItARY TAStE FOR TA.\!PA SAY R CWTR.Ct Fo.:tECAST. 1999 FCST 2000 rcsr 2001 rcsr 2002 rcsr 2003 FCST 2004 rcsr 2010 FCST 2015 rur 2112S rcsr 2110; FCST TOTAL &'AO'tHttT <3) 1371.245 1389.130 1'07.353 1427.971 1446.502 1552.628 1667.446 leti4 C62 OF US .697 .899 .90 1 .90S .908 .911 .923 .930 .946 .974 TOT AAIV ltf 1205. 1 42 1221.131 1236.565 1254..471 1270. 3 7 4 1285 775 1362 48 5 1 401.843 14.5 4.551 1 584 23 3 PR &.P f Of US .937 .938 .939 .942 .944 .946 .956 .963 .981 1.010 ( C t'AliCS> 92$) (S} 58.358 S 9 .746 61.175 62.693 GU48 6 5.620 PRS0ll.o1L lliCCttE (4) 6S.291 68.1S9 71.127 74,292 17.491 ao.sa6 PERS WC l O F US .911 .912 913 9 i 6 .9li .918 OJSFOSASf..E Ilicett:: ( 4 ) 57.252 59.713 62.300 66.15 1 6 7 .963 7 0.867 PU:PRICE 1)10X92 (4 ) 115.376 117.849 1 ?.\),354 122.9'7 125.595 12:8.313 REII. !HCM 1> 49.623 50.720 Sl.830 52.935 s.s. m PER/CAP(4) 19.119 19.136 1 9 .186 1 9 .2?S 1 9 .33? 1 9 .418 PQlVI.A11Cfl (3) 25% .413 2650.177 270l.S l 8 2750.8?0 279S.399 28'4.192 POP AS % Cf US .964 .97S m .933 WTE For an ta b les: EKl'LOYKEttT & a.""E! i n THJUSAXDS o f l)e(91e. ta.LAA Cr'ICtPt S a!'t in 8! L lli)IS ttv.lKED 92-S t.'nl es s otherwise ir.d i cate d aM P E R WITA concepts are 1n OF REAL OCU.ARS. II()EX 1 0 AVAILABlE Tj)J31..ES SUPER S U!1W\'f TAI!.E mD JEFER!.NCE liST ..... 1 Sl,lttWn' TR!U:S FOR PiUVATE SECTOi!S TM!.E 2 f.m.O'fflEilT T.&.9LE & POPI.U.TIO.'L .............. TABlE 3 f' ERSQW. JtcariE TAa.E ... .. TABLE 4 Gil? BY F itW. OEKAAO Bll.L. Of otAl tiU> 92S T .lal E S 11} SECTtR CETAJL ($! TI.Et E 2 Ftft III!:IEX) ... T:.SLES 1 1 4 OOO.IPATIIl't\l. EtRO'I'NENT.,,. , , , , , TI;31.E 15 OCCU?A.TlOl!M. WAGE AATE Ctwl.iE .. : ..... , ... TAi!LE 16 KISCELUiiEOOS DATA. LASOR P'IWCOCTI'I JTY , .,. Tlli!LES 17A, l7a 49 D!TA!l (SEE TABLE 2 FOR lNOEX> , Tl.!t.E$ !84 9 I. C02 73.573 78.864 88 .368 103.210 101. 7l5 167 .&95 24-1.318 916 .90S 855 .918 105.387 146.678 215.&SS 146.030 162. 692 203.443 256.373 64.7$1 72.098 $4 .200 19.812 20.035 20.534 21.923 3081.015 323 3 .4-JO 351J .080 3$40.704 1.034 1.043 1 .050 1 074 B 1

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 8: TABLE Fill PRI'IAT N0111Aflti Fa! YN'IPA 81\Y REG!Oh' C('NTRtt. FOi!EU.ST. 8.953 19.341 19.749 21.395 22.130 22.9<2 24.639 HtVEST ACTVTY (8.22) 49. 6 1 2 49 .Jol7 49 114 49.Z38 49, 218 49. 176 47 937 '!i,974 45.433 51.315 EXP 221. 999" 224.926 221 .984 231.406 234.325 2J1.l .000 .OliO .000 .000 .000 .000 .coo .COJ .coo .000 OOSiS AIIO PRlctS TO THI: U.S : SELLI.._'G AAlCE ( 9 .26> .94&37 .94728 .94632 94560 -.9441 9 .93933 .93<45 93157 FACi'QR lh'PUTS {9.21) 9!553 .98361 .981SZ 97983 .97822 .97676 .96755 .95913 9)502 .96103 v.&:lR { 9 .28> .996!S .9m4 .98817 9S4S9 9$16'9 .978a1 .%19 7 .9<881 9 .89367 .89367 89U7 .89'367 .69367 .89367 .89367 .89367 W!TIL ( 10.30 ) .98146 .98162 .98161 9-5165 .98172 .9e06! .91842 .97716 .9&05 lt&UTS .... 1.010 U1.3]) .591 .59! .S92 .592 .S93 .SS4 .594 .594 .59& .sss A\'G IUIGE Tl(li}S02 .38) 24.03 7 2S.2SS 2S.9S8 26.67S 31.533 36 .454 49,941 68. 3 0 1 Itlri!L MIX' ll'llX OZ. J9) I.CS58l 1.05510 1.054<5 l.C5379 1 .06324 1.06261 1.04673 1.04329 1.039!17 1.03495 Ill 6iLLi01iS O F CK4Jtl(;O 195'2 Da.LARS: WWD (12.40) 10.3.;5420 105.010:30 108.13040 110.410160 112:.52560 l2 i .osno 135.14080 150.02490 175.90110 U2 ,41) 42.S3511 43.31919 44. 1241l9 44. 99'04 45.79179 46.58725 51.62876 54.80$31 60.56195 11.16496 S.f SUPPLY U3.42l 6 .41914 62.694St 64.005JZ 65.40760 66.73384 6S.070ll eo.J3553 69.46291 104.73510 EXPeRTS (13.43) 2 0 .76826 2l.Xl3S9 21.8S-QC9 22 .'11394 22.55733 23. S l268 2S.S562a 28.76350 32.4m8 37.45726 HlfRJ..R TPD 03.44) 8 .75418 8 .93925 9 .23013 9.48217 9.73!111 9.902!6 n .384J 4 12.3Z027 13.99358 16.60724 Pf()!(03AS) .5. 9465!1 158.80!150 GRP(VJ.l. 52.311S8 53.59731 5'-92022 56.3<1019 51.68859 S9.C61S2 66.21802 70.9S206 7 9.53957 J OF s 'S: UAGE&SAJ. OJSS 04.'8) 28.27838 29.3S2l9 30.475S8 31.11%3 32. 97623 34.29818 42.96365 S1.102.t.O 72. 64Zll 11J8.20390 B -2

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A N ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TABLE 6 3 : ENFL0YHNT Tt.BI.E TNiPA BA.Y REGID:t COKJROl_ FORECAST. 011 Of PEOIU) 1999 2COO 20C1 20C2 20C3 20M 201C 2015 2025 203; FCST FCSl f(.ST rcsr FCST FC$1 FCST FCSl FCST FCSl M.Yi U F IIC11.Rr 100. 6 7 2 93.7$6 96.913 98 8Sl 97 .956 96.985 !1'3.201 8S.S27 77.488 70.560 JS A r O F U.S. .5'6 .545 .5<4 .548 .548 .548 .553 .56S .568 .578 OUIWILES 57.94 5 5 7 .105 E6 .123 55.593 54.805 53.996 50.849 '7 .391 39.573 34.247 NCt\01JRA8LES 42.726 42.651 42.591 <113 .289 43. 1SO 42.989 42.352 3 7. 91-4 :l5.3!.1 tWitf/, tT\JRE 1105..170 1121.315 1137.652 USS.589 1172.419 1185.790 1269.293 1m.31& 1377.063: 1Sl3.673 AS A r or u s 1.003 1.002 I. C02 l.CC
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TASlE PtPSCtl /4.. lSCOI!E TABlE FCR TAH?A BAY RGl0H W.'mJl FORECt.ST. WI 8llll011S OF OCUAAS) 1999 200Q 2001 2002 20CI'l 2004 201 0 MlS 2025 2035 f(ST fCST fCST fCST FtST fCST FCSI f'CST fCST FCST WGE AAO SN. 0158 3l.S6572 J 3 .S466tl 35.17948 3>.6<218 3U2555 39.69727 59.36187 84.55 IOCCHP' .00000 .00001) .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .03000 .O!IC-Oil OTHER LI.SCft Jtm1 ; .64.450 7.99222 8 35708 8 7L909 9 .14757 9 .56<9< }2.31450 14.93038 2 l.sse67 32.00141 OF P[RS{!itll lKCI:fiE SY PU.CE Ck RESIOEIICE: TOT l.I!55 1 0. 1$384 Pll.5 IISIO PDJ . 19902 .19683 19473 19-'46 . 192.80 .1 9 139 . 19357 .19810 2'2323 19957 P LUS O iV,IHT .aENT 14.W>l0 1 5 .50545 Hi.Zl351 J6.96957 17.72399 18.4951:0 23.26030 27.36127 37.33226 $4 !2733 P LUS T'RA);$fER PAY 13.04651 )J. 69lJl 1 4 .35147 15.nm 16.40762 2\1.47321 23-.68477 3 1.43505 45.44983 PERSttIS .948 .%0 .%4 .947 .939 957 R.D. Pf.'iJ.JCAP 19.11893 19.12834 19.18SS3 19.26536 19. '1832 19.81240 20.1)3<86 20.53432 21.9l299 01' I.ASOR AXO PROPRttnlR' S !1\'CD.'!E: Kt,]!'lJt ACTUR:E 3 .85S82 3.9::o.u 3 99923 4 09046 4..16293 4.23833 4 .81621 S .28'EO 6 .30405 7 .76851 tlOAS>.E5 2.430'0 2.462:50 2 .53226 2 .$$119 2.85551 3.11&1.22 3.S1COO 4 .lll069 .:a'lCWSLE S 1 .46418 l.SC002 1.53673 1 .59221 1 .63UE6 1.95210 2.20038 2 1940) 3 .66182 t(l!o: KAA1JtAC'T!..R 30.70486 32.{l03Jil 33.36215 34.81:604 36.36494 37.952 1 2 48 .35562 58.22792 84.35]71 1 2,.2841 0 I'IINJiiG .00!3-a .oaeon .00863 .OO!IC6 .00928 .OCSSl .Ollll .01236 .01496 .01950 WIT OOt'SlliUCTlOfi 2 .235<8 2 J089i 2 .38792 2A1671 2.S6SJ4 2.659n 3 .29365 3 .91274 5 .6539D 8 .13921 TRA."SPOIU PUS UT 2.ZJ5f>l 2 .29185 2 .36107 ( .42&S2 2 49644 2.56662 2 .94289 3.2281)4 3.8i'l63 4 .808&5 I'IIWiCe,lNS, 3 .Z73Sl 3 .36372 3 .,;566 3 .61450 3 .73165 3 .85497 5.Z2983 6 .76701 9 .06819 AETAIL TRA( 4 .67874 4 .8tl061 4 .92188 5 .06594 5 .2:1079 5 .35865 7.14263 9.35513 12.95331 14il.Siol.E TRI 2 .78119a 2 .83706 2:.89535 2 .95977 3 .02:1:84 3.092?2 3.58032 4.01550 S .04C67 6 .52469 SERVIttS 15.15247 1 6 01183 16.91501 17.899!?3 1 8 91ii8 2i .08816 33.98959 52.57494 83 .4501 6 A:iRl/FO!Uf ISH .33970 .3544$ .31104 .38861 405Sl .42626 .56023 .&9653 1.06946 1.68143 GO\.'RNY.OIT 5 .33!1&2 s .m.u 5 .85639 6 i 348' 6 .412i5 6 .72670 8 6 !94S 10.J68S7 14.97796 22 .43261 S:T AXO GO\'T 4 .19107 4A2816 4 67Zla 4.92682 5 .18964 5.46720 7 .ll8420 8.55840 12.47743 1S.93a-93 FEO GOVT CIVJUAA' .90511 .92187 .93897 .95726 .9'1646 .99678 LMSSS 1.41964 1.9';61 2 .71716 FEO G0VT Hlllli\I{Y .23381 .23940 .24505 .2501:1 .U27Z 326M .J!loa3 .55!!93 7$24) fk"' 3 \200 .31563 .31818 .32054 .:!2290 .32505 .36549 .'11086 .S1762 .63 If' All O ,O'S TM(U f!OOPRiETtRS ltle&.
PAGE 103

.' . A N A NA L YSIS O F THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TJ.3lE !.: GRP SY Fit.' .. OOWll TAa.E f"OR TAMPA &W Ret>IOH C(ltiJ'RC(. Fa\'tCAST. (SlU.IttlS OF C!IAUI 1992 US DOLU..RSRfll:CJLm l.'lTK AOOEO) 1,., 2000 2001 .,, 2003 ""' 2010 2015 20 25 2035 FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCSl FCST TOTAl GR? 58. -35759 59.74593 61.17537 62.69890 64.14757 65.SlSSO 73.57285 1 8 .!5351 89.36816 TOTAl. OOIISIIIP.T100 5 1. 17104 52.283e2 S3.404.37 54.S9!27 56.10307 -S6 StlS2 63. cme o 56.6&$0 7'.16393 1J7 .2Jto67 Nil PAATS 2 .38802 2.44842 2 .S1042 2 .S76'11 2 .63952 2 ,70218 2.9 1956 3 .03260 3.23174 3 84U8 F'URif 6 HSEtt.D ECJ, 2.86!63 2 .9125-!l 2 .9E492 3 .02232 3.07547 3 .12814 3.68010 4 .06331 4.685.94 5.58717 OiliER DIJtAB!.ES 1 .24986 1.2 704S l .2916S 1 .31509 1.33669 1.35804 1 .5Q362 1.603tl8 1.7\1766 2 .1om FOOO & '"''IWQ!S 7 .22530 1.26321 7 .30267 7 3SH6 7 .39771 7.43707 7 .1JSS8 7 .91973 8.42696 9 .Sil868 & Stn2S 2 .61217 2 .66253 2 71'34 2 .77(198 2.!2365 2 .81600 3.158$9 3.330!0 3.56)82 4 ,30772 G.4SQ.l11E & OIL i.3999S 1..(10204 1 .4007 1.40907 1.4119$ 1.4 1400 1 .45 5 7 8 1 .48278 1.56742 l .Sl677 FUEL OIL & 07496 .07 .07309 .07226 .01135 01037 .06492 .1!6116 .05SS2 .06566 OTHER 3.49927 3 .62267 3 .74527 3 .E6724 3.98481 4.10261 4,6:84$4 5 .03759 5.65024 6 .66903 ltlUS!MS. 6 .8S964 7 .02784 7 .16093 7 .29221 7 .41465 1.53433 &.. l UOS 8 .49344 9 2 1665 1 0.74706 HSEit.D O?EAATfO : ; 3.49084 3 .58626 3 .68449 3 .78935 3 .88758 3.98537 4 Sll32 4.83656 5.4084() 6.31191 iRA151'GftTAlJCt< 1.86 171 1.88782 1.91481 1.91213 1.9g97J 2 13363 2 .22157 2 .40154 2 .801:111 HOO.TH S:R\'lCES 8 .&2361 9.05895 9 .1:8506 9 .52291 9.74633 9.91549 11.25SS2 12.12016 13. 711107 1 6.2 1663 onr m sancEs 8 .78907 9 066'4 9.35240 9.65319 9.94055 10.22946 11.7.(;261 12.69112 14.30493 16.882:29 TOTN. FIXED 11-l\'EST l 2 .U0054 )2 06959 1 2 .16121 12.30546 12.42&)2 12.55278 1 3 .51924 14.17364 1 5.33170 18.19094 RSiOEtlTJN.. 2.68379 2 .6!090 2 .67177 2 .67224 2 .66331 2 650 11 2.51690 2 .59140 2 .4:2532 Z 9l9?8 !IOK RESlOOITIJL 2 .19140 2 .1&937 2.19378 2 .20764 2.21944 2 .23218 2.358&1 2 .44981 2 .61131 PRCO. WR. E()JIP. 1 .12045 7 1S831 7 .29567 7.42538 7.54527 1.57001 8 .63337 9 .33243 1 0 .3450S 12.20695 C8I tl!T J V A + HISC .18240 .11537 .1618& .16160 .15461 .14760 .10846 .10911 .HC69 .lll89 .ooouo .ocoao .oooco .oouuo .00000 .ucooo .oouoo .00000 .00000 .ooouo TOTIU. GO\'ERNiUT 8 .:!8329 8 .6088& &.83284 9.06420 9.21135 9 .46935 10.77661 ll.60268 1 2 9S2G4 15.07136 fEO G'Ji MlliTAA.Y 1.38567 1.39091 1.3952$ 1.:moo 1.403S9 1.-l 1.54599 1.66197 1 .85965 2 .14365 F E O Gr// C IVILJAH .82715 .8216 0 .81591 .81023 .E0<51 .75635 .8518< .93m 1 04429 1.20376 STo\TE/LOCIL OOY 6 16947 6 .39637 5.62168 6.84437 7.C628ol ; .28Vl 8 .351'111 9.0014:3 10.07811 1 .72.395 TOT,l,l EXP
PAGE 104

AN ANAL YSIS O F THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORiDA H I G H SPEED RAI L 8 6 : S'Jffi! SU!ttMO' fAll.E rnq EAST WmW. FORECAST. tJI.Allll' (3) Z65l .5S6 2734. 4 1 0 Z$)3.522 2967. 2.110 31}42.177 34S4.41C6 .(!28S.621 491 3.831 POP AS J o r us .9,, 9!1> t.0!5 !.035 1. 053 1 .011 L l S 9 L209 1.281 1.374 HOT Fot all t a bles: &.Pt,.C't HNT & POPI.I.All tft al"e 1 n THCIJS.A1;0S Of l))plC. DCt.lAA c oo c epts a r e 1 n Slllltffi Cf CII.A!MEO 92 S U"lless ot.he-Ms.e fnl1feateef and co n c ep;:s are in TtOJSM'OS fK StEAL CCUAAS. 1UiiX TO TA31.ts Sl#fR Sltil'JStV TAQ.E loXO SI:Frut>tt UST . ... TA&. StJtttAAY T.ASLE S Fcr:t PRl'IATE SEtrr:ft$ TA&.t Z O!PlO'fflENT T AaE & . .. . . T.Aai 3 PERS!:tlAL TA3t.E ......... .............. TA51.: 4 Gjij> ar FlNAI.. aru. Of ... TA6l! s 10 OCTA!l (SEe. T.\B!.E 2 FCR IIDEX). . ,.TAJlliS 7 E HPt.OVI'NT .. ... . ... ... l /lll 1 5 OCOJP:.llll'fAI.. lri/GE AA1' OtAXG , TAJllt 1 6 01\T A LA&R flmltllvtJY ....... TA!l!S l7A,l7B 4 9 tEli\Jl (SEE T.lSl.E 2 Fill: It.tiX> ..... TA2l!S 1 8 B-6

PAGE 105

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC I MPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TAlll 8 7 : SUKWn' T.talE fmTY ( 8.221 52.657 53 .005 53 .350 53.91 8 54.440 54.920 56.365 56.368 5'5.742 65.723 !XP US/WCRLD<8.23) 2!:7 .243 229.950 232.768 m.ss8 238.282 240.926 255.010 262.831 !Jl.264 290.678 EXP-HULTREG {8.24) 186.956 190. 1 50 193.327 1 96.Ja5 200.007 203.185 220.22>1 22>1.685 2"'. o5s 273.271 Exo:>m::rus < 8.2S) .ceo .090 .000 .000 .000 .coo .coo .000 .ODG .oco OOSts 0 SELLit: G PRICES R.EL.t.liV' 10 THE U .S.: S ELllt:G PRICE ( 9.26 1 .95618 .95648 .95557 .95678 .9569S .9!722 .95731 .96596 .!lWS .96779 fAC!CR 1KP .98163 .!laCES .9195l .97895 .972.36 .9664! .96G01 .97352 lol&:lR ( 9 .281 .9597$ .98561 .9113;0 .900!0 .978CS .97550 .960<7 .94820 .!U111I'ITt.L <10.30) .98.."<16 9a$i3 .93782 .96870 .9895! .990:17 .99356 .99<40 .99743 1.00606 JNTPJD mnrrsno.3n .95835 .95937 .95773 .957!9 .955!6 .95617 95374 .95130 .95097 .95754 OTHER \1PJU.A.BtES: R.Et Pr(IO HFG (10.321 .92490 .92490 .92450 .92'190 .92-'SO .92490 .92490 .924!0 .9Z4SQ .92490 ill FroF HFG (10.331 .97908 .!le037 .98173 .98289 !le397 .!lS
PAGE 106

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA H IGH SPEED RAIL TAI!LE 88: !IRO'fflt'NT TA!t.E fCII EAST REGICit (X)I(TI:X)t. FORCAST ( llf TI(JU$N41)S 0' P!Cft. E) 1999 2000 :0002 :0003 201)1 2010 201$ 2025 2005 FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST ftS1 FCST FCST FC$1 FCS T IWIJFACTiJI:E 93 .019 92.018 9l.OlJ 91).051 aJ.otz 81.127 8'.S9' 80.308 69.9'24 63 .271 AS A l Of' U.S. .505 .SOl .SOl ,,99 96 .497 .502 .506 .513 .518 DIJRNllES 6S.704 6U78 63.S18 52.(]5 61.3116 6/l,VJ S6. & l 7 52. S!l 4).637 37.578 QO.R,I,BtS V .l7S 27."4 21.505 21.516 27.'26 v ... iS.IN-s 21.1'11 26.287 25 1097.781 1122. 66: 1147.463 1174.0CS ll9t.8U 1m.192 13SZ.I.51 l.QO ,(Q 1562.291 l76t.ru AS" ; or u .s. ... 1 .003 1.011 1.019 1.028 1.0315 1.076 1 .102 l.lSJ U23 "JHUG 1 .148 1 .154 1.164 1.165 1 .168 1 .169 l.lSS 1.107 .980 .902 CXIIfT 8 2 .745 8'.016 85.296 1!6. 729 !8.107 89.423 %.8'2 99.615 107.396 124.715 TAA'6PCRT ftF.I Ui 57 JISl 58.367 SO.w.> 59. 382 59.853 611.2:73 S9.66S 57.283 51.564 49.060 F JIWit E, INS, Ri: 96. 179 ,494 9.!1.140 1CI>.027 101. 191 102 30:) 107.326 109. 418 Ul.l74 l19. 1 35 R[TAJl TAADE 2.232 :006.398 238.63$ fED GO\T. CJ\'L 16.S77 16.396 1 6 .212 l6. 0lS 1 5 .666 15.697 15.797 1 S 8Sl IS.60a 15.693 fED. GOVT. KJLI. 1 5.04 5 )<1 959 14 857 14 .712 1 4 675 )4 ,673 15.056 IS. 730 16, 496 FAAA OA.OYKOO 12 662 U .:KZ 12.055 ll.711 11.482 11.185 1G. JS4 9 856 8 .914 8.051 AS A r t:1 u+s. ... '-"' "" ,410 47t "" "" .... .... .... tO'tlll. twlm$'1T IJ.38t 1460.115 1478.996 1$0:7.4016 i6Sl.633 l131. m 1868.1159 zm m A$ A t Cf U.S. .893 901 .9Ut 9 1 9 .... 93 7 982 1.012 1.067 1.139 POPI.l..AHOII 2652.656 2734.410 l967.Z40 3042.171 3454.CC6 3748.971 <2116.621 4913.831 PS A t Cf U S .974 .9% l .OIS 1.00!1 1 ,053 1.071 1.159 1.209 1.281 1.37 4 B-8

PAGE 107

. AN ANAL YS/S O F THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TA&. E 8: llR$0!(.l.L 1':.8LE F00 E/IST R-l"Aieti WlTR.Cl ON BJLLIOtiS OF NOfiUW. oetl.PJIS} 2001 2002 2003 2004 201 0 2015 2025 lila; FCST FCST FCST FCST rcsr rcsr FC>T FC>T FCSf FCST 'AME A!IO SolJ.. OIS6 32.65820 34.21087 35.8213< 37.575-18 41.30177 53.&11$4 es.aas21 97 .a6411 152.80790 IKOO' .00000 .OOtlOO .00000 .03000 .tlOOoo .00030 .ocooo .00000 .ocooo .00000 OlliR I.AOOR IKCOI 1.11688 8.18668 8 61591 9.S4759 10.04597 13.33954 16.51693 24.7&952 37.\lUOO OOUVATIC> O F PRSIJIW.. BY P l:.CE IX ASIO!liCE: TOT LA!(JI: 1NC 40.43508 42.39755 44.443iS %.64677 48.93681 5 1.34774 61.18137 ee.34220 122.513?0 190.773&3 M. At Cf U.S . m .195 .800 .Pm .813 .820 .8S2 .813 .923 1 .002 LESS SOC JKSR OfT 2.50760 2.63018 2.75792 2 .89S90 3 .1l115 4,1175 1 5.12 123 1 .64453 11.97497 PLUS RESiO UlJ .58801 Ail917 .65133 .6$635 -.7ZJ05 76196 .02266 1 .27903 -1.97091 3 17354 P W S Ol!J.IICT.Rll4T 1 0 .82$45 12.23692 12.99081 l3.769SO 14.57684 1 9 .62863 24.16765 35.21907 Stl 7 1S&!l PWS WJlSFER PAY 11.71%2 1 2.5643; 13.43078 14.34811 15.29007 1 6 .26927 22.16220 27.15629 38 9 6119 61.1?1>23 PERSOIW. 11JXt1! 59. 68U4 63.23339 66.7022{1 70.40546 74.23730 78.24174 103.77200 127 .2648!} 187.14450 AS At fE U.S .835 .810 .ass .1!68 .879 .899 .934 .956 .998 1.082 lESS l/IXES 7.266$7 7.64995 8.04 814 8 .47433 8 9 1599 9 .37946 2 .39S96 1 5.22253 22.19281 35.19318 O JSPOSAalE PER. INC 52.61727 56.58313 58.65405 61.93112 65.32141 611.86227 9 1.3SS07 112.04230 164 .SSl7G 2S0.32SY.l PCE9RC HIOCX 115.46120 118.03030 120.6..'290 123..31290 1 26 .05350 128.8S4CO 147.10690 1M.Z.$4CO .206.00750 REM.. D I S PER 45.57137 47 .ll9252 48.Sl195 50.22275 51.82341 53.43793 62.12152 68. 2 1698 79.87656 98.37933 AS A* Of U S .aeo .SiZ .803 896 .908 .920 .970 .997 1 .039 l.U9 R O llmt PWCI>P 17.1?952 17.22219 17.28151 11. 37199 11.46418 11.55!E8 17.98321 1 8.191 1 9 18.63e21 10.02090 8RJ&W,(lt OF VBJR IWJ.IFJCTmE 4 .2.'9926 .35903 4.42.279 4.48960 4.55552 4 .62389 5 .13SS2 6 .18158 8.31059 WAASLES 3 .20983 3 .2:3990 3 .27312 3 .30796 3 .3412 4 3 .37581 3 .75222 1;.00179 4.57639 5 .36<54 tllliDJi!AStES I.CSSS3 1.11913 1.14967 Ll8l64 1.21428 L24EfA 1.49271 1.70673 2 .209'19 2.94595 NCtl 30.42262 32. 0 1112 33.67963 35.48325 37.3551 7 3l.326E8 52.11;300 64.51991 91.63972 154.24520 .02-103 .02,80 .02559 .02639 .02717 .02796 .00263 .0361 3 .0<349 .QS418 OOHT CQtSTR'UCTJ()I .2.57440 .2.68743 2 .80521 2 .93419 3 .06712 3 .20557 4 .09522 4 9568' 7 .36843 11.78959 TIWGI'tm P1.8 UT 1.3ll93 2.38951 2.46973 2 .5$192 2 .63862 2 72121 3. 1&161 3.53121 .31170 s.S2<151 ... Rf 2 .35744 2 .4M64 2 .54729 2 .6433S Z.74!l69 2.&1193 3 .46S< 4 .03574 5 .44M1 'J .67983 RETAil 11VJlE 5 .02268 s .zoese 5.41056 5 .61883 5 .83570 7 15527 8 .36466 11.46301 16. WH!l.CSolLE Tfl..l.DE 2 .09755 2.1SSS6 2.21486 2.27881 2 .34409 2 .41180 l.85SOO 3 .27292 4 .21347 5.60731 SER\'ICS 1 5 .8651 3 16.92158 lt!.03250 19.24120 20.50351 21.842:1 1 30 .75585 39.5951:3 63.67CO> 1C5.12050 .34 13{1 .35&SO .37642 .S954Z .41513 .4:!618 .SECOil .727ZJ 1 .13015 1 .8041!6 TOTAl. Grff'Eii!.HEilT 5.39972 $.70519 6.02258 6 .35462 6 .1C166 'J .06967 9.42631 11.67230 17.62812 27.57SS3 ST AliO I..OCAI. GfJ(J 4 15461 4 72561 5.00!160 5.34892 5 .68705 7 .73396 9 .61C4!1 14.851SS 23.67588 H O GO\'T CJ'I!l iM .83564 .85 151 .as1n .88501 .50022 1 .12021 1 .31139 1.81162 2 .53228 F GO\'T HILITARY .40957 .41900 .439:11 .44951 .4601S .57220 .6$152 96-<93 1.310:!6 31339 .31621 .31875 ,32110 .-325fi0 .36706 4U4.7 5 1832 If' J1U O.os THEH PRO.>;UETOO:S 11.())( HAS 8 EN INTO OTHE R JI(X)tE. B-9

PAGE 108

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TA3lf 80 : GH? S Y F IIW. TA&.E fOR [I)Sl WITJW. RGi()t COIIT!n f'Qru:G\ST. CaiLLWIIS OF CI".:.JXEO 1992 US WJTH VALUI: 100) 1919 2<00 2:101 2002 2003 201)1 2010 201 5 202& 203> fCST fCST FCST FC.Sl rcsr i''t$1' FCST rcsr rcsr TOT.tl 57.01018 SS.6J687 60.28003 61.98312 63.65<50 65.345-73 75.04974 81.77293 93.97431 lli.7S470 TOT.lt. WISt.HI'TiCh' 4$ ,$1408 47.42255 48 .99736 S0.6499.J 52.27650 53.92110 63.16675 81.52614 10 1.41410 AUTOS .VI!) PARTS 2 .lt-69Z 2.!8126 2 .26867 2.3SS34 2 .441 46 2 .&26"' 2 .68643 3 .54900 4 40583 8 HSEHtO tO. 2 .51814 2 .6110 2.75418 2 .83&8& 2 .91813 3 .62'567 4 15117 5-.049a4 6 .33385 0116 WAAGUS 1 .05656 1.12843 1.16341 !.13>182 1.22884 1.2631)1 1 .48Z73 1.63713 1.9 2012 2.40032 fcoo & 6 .wes 6 1020 6.$1956 6 .81941 6.9J&M 7 6 .08797 9 ,{17698 11.20441 CtOTMI!.G & SH:l-2 Z9770 2.3709!1 2 .44482 2.52396 2.60237 2 .69154 3 .110G9 3 ,4(11)74 3 94514 .1.91645 GASOLIUE & 0(L 1.23249 1.24982 1 .26644 t.z6S2a 1 .30347 1.32&91 1 .43580 L S1S12 1.6891$ 2 0 7499 fL'El O!L & COR. .06608 .0560$ .06594 .06691 .06&$4 .0656S .ll639S .06243 .06299 .07479 OTHtR !.J)III)Jfi).SLES 3.SC643 3.6572J J.830C5 3 .9!Wl6 4 .15QIJ4 4.32019 5 .188!H $ .181&2 6.&1430 8 .50243 liCOSlliG 1 .03-IH 7 7 4JU4 7 7 .81554 8 .83920 9.52<"09 1 0.84%4 13.25228 3 .05000 3 t 72l3 3.29627 3.42:197 3 .5S8B8 3.69 183 -'.'11069 4. 9013$ 5 .77808 '.221>36 Lf.310Z 1 .67403-1.11109 1 .76356 1.60940 1.85&22 2.09417 2 .2S49S 2 .56997 3.17&35 tiER..llt SR\'(C. S 1.415$9 7 ,76834 8. 8.43279 8 .75359 9.083 1 0 10.99702 1 Z .406$4 15.06806 18.93$14 OTliHt SER\'JCS 7 .68587 8 01928 8.35950 8 118)6 9'.0 7693 9.4-4159 H.4t070 1 Z 7GOS6 15.12378 TOTI.l FlXEO lll\'ST 12. 4 i5H 1Z.82967 13.08856 13.34212 13.59911 1 5.12{199 16.06731 18.07103 2l.36415 2 .901349 2 .95498 2.99292 3 .03828 3.076SO 3 10W 3 .1306! 3.06003 3 .ZOS93 4 034H MCN 2.23711 2 .25369 2.27 403 2.:!0302 2.3332'2 2 .3646$ 2.56773 Z .7oza.3 2.990C3 fliJ) J OUR 7 .26"945 7 .QCeal 1.55212 7 .74697 7.93211 9 .42265 1 0 .29635 11.66908 CIU liT 111/. HJSC .18197 17557 .16921 .15051 10350 10$17 10788 .11014 GRP,'Ar.RI'FO 0 0300 .ocooo .00000 .OOO()G .CI.>JDO .OCC03 .00000 .00003 .00000 .00000 iOT/.1. 9 .47SZO 9 .77-tiJS l 0 .07M8 l0 .37672" 1 3 .98219 12.88215 14 .21SS9 16.52'924 1 9.89281 f GOV Hllll/iAV 2.29930 2 .J0632 2 3 1353 2 .32013 2 .32784 2 .33514 2.5584' 2 .75677 3.C BY YN.. H 57.0161& 58.63687 60.28003 61.93312 63.6545!1 65.34573 75.0 4974 81.17293 9 3 .97431 tO'f PRJY Nf V/1.1. .6J) TOT QOY TOT FAA"' VAl .400 $0.6#03 S.6Jl97 7ll0l2 &Z.uoce 5 79449 .73231 S3.S9925 S.9562S .72453 S$. 1 4996 6 .ueas .11628 55.671!$ .70783 58.21138 6 .<13521 .69914 u.nszs 7 .52001 .75447 1 2 .66528 8.29591 .81074 83.41C6? 9 .65243 .9113S 1(11).10130 11.63559 1.().17$6 B 1 0

PAGE 109

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF F LORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 1/I&.E. 8 : SUPER SIJIOW\Y T.t.SlE FOR. TREA9JR.E OOoiST O::llcmot. fORttAST (TABLE I REF'tREt:ES HI PAAEUiliEstS> 1999 2000 2<101 2002 2<103 2010 2<115 2 33. 076 33.944 34 .825 35.723 36.5!!3 37.453 4<2.260 50.84<1 59.869 PERSOIUd. HIWCE (4) 57.196 60.154 6 3 .201 66 368 69.554 72:.853 93.443 H0.633 154.900 230.446 P!RS U.'C r OF US 198 .80 5 8 1 2 818 .823 .828 .831 .826 .ass DISPOOA.&. IUCOOE (4) So.!SS 52.156 55.432 58.211 61.006 63.819 81.924 96 9 1 7 !35.501 201.468 PC-f(UCE n ;OX-92 ( 4 ) U7 .450 119. 999 122.578 125. 2 1 9 121. 9 1 2 1:10 .659 165.447 206.68> 260.982 JL DlS P JIOCOI' (4) 42.706 43.964 45.222 46.4e8 47 6g 4 58. 579 65 .559 77.196 R .O.WCttE PER/CI\0(4) 27.0 1 3 2:7.042 21.103 21.266 21.360 21.158 21.195 28. 2C8 29.9S7 JPEJ! SIM1AAr TABlE .r.JID R!Fll
PAGE 110

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TMlt 6: SW'.KtJI.V TIIBl' FOa. PiU\'A.T( MtNi'.wt SCTMS FOR TRtASURE OlAST fMfCAST. !Pl. Ylfll (] 18) 615. 096 686.714 698.345 711>.450 721.626 732.509 786.337 8 1 0 6;2 850.040 939.4n c?. l9) 124.368 126.683 129.023 131.462 133.732 135:964 147.011 IS2.7<2 162A73 180.583 LOCI\1 CtftSI.fl (] 20) 3 1 4 .208 38 1.795 389.230 39&.951 404.0ll H0. 813 457.332 478.650 530.801 OOYT 0'W10 (] .21) 8 .135 8.440 8.759 9 .0SS (9. 28) l.OVOO 1.0191 4 1.01557 1.012{)1 J.ooaso ms< 96999 .55754 .96839 (9. 29) .SB;J.I .88534 .S8S34 .SB;J.I .88534 .aa5J4 88SJ4 ,ES;34 .8853< CA?TTAL (l{).J!)) ..... 9 .98148 .989Zl .98891 .9S939 .989!11 .9SB;6 .98 767 .9;370 U li'Rl' !NYUTSOU.JU .9.9928 .98144 .9&551 .98571 .!la l'lfS (1!).32) .92378 .92378 .9287 8 .92818 .92878 .s2a1s .92<178 .92!118 .92878 .92878 REL lllliJr HrG 0 0.33) .92S23 .92679 .92642 .92937 93 130 .93259 .93%7 9459$ .S4951 9'432 Lo\OOR HITDI$TV{11, 34) 953;4 .%414 .95444 .954&1 %)34 .959&' .96509 .97547 .98147 I".U.l AOJ { 11.351 1 .coon 1.00323 1.00323 1.(10323 1.00323 1.00323 1.00323 1.00023 1.00323 EHP : or u s \GE-TH !liSOZ. 3 8) 2.::.one. 24 .617 l$. 246 25.9<15 Z6.S93 2 7 ;326 J z z n 37. 180 $0.808 69.786 n a tnx uu:u 02.39) l.D8Z39 1 .0831}2 1.0836 7 1.08444 l.GSS!ll !.08564 l .C-6030 1.07618 1. 0 7212 LOS8J7 J K 8ilLIWS Df Qtl\ifol !992 OCt.LAAS: DEIWil>
PAGE 111

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EcONOMIC IMPACTS .. HIGH SPEED RAIL TABLE 8 : EH?lO\'ffiiT TABlE FOR OOAS1 OOmRtt. FMEUST. CIN TIIJJSIDS Of I'(IJPI.) 1999 2000 2<101 ZOOJ 2C04 2010 2015 2&25 2005 FCST iCSi FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST 38.17S 3 7 .763 3).3)8 37.0 1 3 36. 629 35. 234 35.'190 34.289 30,951 28.130 AS At OF U .S. 'lffl .2C6 .20& .205 .205 .205 .211 2 9 .2ZI .235 21.169 2$.112 Z6.403 26.0Sl 25 .692 25.325 2 .569 23.SB7 20. 91) 1$.959 l()t(OORJ.SLES 11.007 10.S9 1 10.975 10 .952 10.937 10.9(16 10 922 10.702 10.003 9.771 CN IWilfACTUR 636.921 64$.SS2 660;967 673,447 6SS.007 696.215 7S{l,(U(i n6.363 819.090 910.748 ;.s It t OF U.S. .578 .58J .582 .5SS .697 .589 .593 .593 .&OS .629 I'IINJNS 1.452 1 .4&:1 1.469 1."'76 1.480 1.472 1.416 1.26!1 1.159 0Ctn COSSTRI)..,iml 52.321 52 84$ 53.411 5oi. 026 54.578 55. 106 s; .889 M .oas 62.562 71.466 1R;l.USF'OR.T PUB UT 25.$01 25.6SS 25.801 25.940 26.04S 2&.1 22 25.&71 24.25.2 21.395 19.798 FliJAXC, HIS.,. RE &6.&05 &7.432 69.209 69.969 69 .5% 70.167 71.938 71.420 69.576 71.631 WAll TRAC 152.202 153.731) 155.223 156.795 158.103 159.29& 163.106 161.424 157.390 1 64.197 wt:m.ESALE TAAtl 26.280 26.248 26.217 2$.204 2&.152 2&.105 25.870 25.120 23.178 22 .U6 SERVICE$ 216.408 286.884 295.331 304.09S 312.<1198 320.835 363.744 309.343 <33.922 5{12.314 AGR!IfORif!Sii SVC 34 .092 30.695 35.:!06 :10.9311 16.54& 37.163 .Cl.255 44.303 49.807 57.9 1 6 TOT,q. OOYERliKtliT $0 .8&2 83 .317 85.179 88.143 90.437 92.701 102.293 107.053 113.91& 12&.637 AS A 0? U S .311 .3SS .392 .399 .4C6 .4 12 .436 .445 .4S6 .475 S l NO L0C& OOVT 73.125 75.672 76 166 80.&01 82.9&3 115.297 94.769 99.452 1C6.3Z9 ne.a83 Fa>. GOVT. CIY J 5.080 4 948 4.892 4.783 4 737 4.767 4 784 4 709 4 .736 1='. GO\'T, Hlll. 2 .7$3 2 .738 2.721 2.103 2 .685 2 2.757 2 .817 2.679 3.019 fAIM EMPlOYHEfiT 11.855 11.583 11.306 11.030 10.758 10.481 9 7U 9 .235 8.352 7.563 AS A t OF U S .440 .44() .440 .<140 441) .... ..... .... 440 .440 TOT.Al E !fl.O'fflEill 767 832 781.655 7SS.4JO 8!19.633 822.832 835.691 893.341 926.9 912.308 1013.668 J{l A' OF U.S. .503 .506 .509 .513 .516 .S2n .534 .&10 .56; .579 POP!.lATIO!I 1580.921 162:. 5 701 1668.493 1709.61 4 17419.197 1787.346 1930.50& 2107.521 23Z4.119 2576.9!1$ I>S A Cf U .S. .S80 .592 .602 .612 .621 .629 .65& .680 .695 ,721 B -13

PAGE 112

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T,\&.E e 1 4 : PRSt:tlAl. II'...Cttt TMI.t FOR TREI.Su:t OOAS1' li!GIO!C COIITROl FORfO.ST. (W OF OOHUW. 0Ct.LAAS} 1999 2000 2C01 2002 2C03 21l0< 201 0 201 S 2025 20JS FCST FCS T FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST .. NfJ SAL 0 158 18.39517 19.221 % 20.08048 Zil 99206 21. 919!8 22.8942\1 29.14381 34.6-49.86036 iS..EOSSS YRtP.:tJrtCiiS .00000 .00000 .0000) .ocooo .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 OTto LASM tt.tet!E 6.204!9 6.49.305 6 .80487 7 .12122 J 7.80182 10.1G34S 12.24518 1 7 .79963 26.S9026 WUVAilC-N OF i'ERS!Wl S Y Pt.AC f$ TOT l./ICR PROP UIC 24.5'9935 25.72000 2s.sam 28.11929 29.37005 30.63602 39.24715 46.941$1 67.65997 102.3-961 0 U.S. .48T l.SSI 2 3 1.63983 L 71520 1 .79520 1 .87600 1.95222 2 .50913 2.95$36 4.32178 6 .59192 PLUS FtESlO olJJJ 1.596&4 1.6 5139 1. 71758 ).7 1.86210 1.9'106 2 .44959-2 .96882 4 .23050 5 .1196 7 PlUS 24.68194 26.05642 2'0.91S90 31}.35323 31.85406 -18. "3 !26 69.90173 9 8 .53121 PtUS TR.IIJISFER PAY 7 .89537 8 .36632 9.34146 9 .821!20 10.3242'1 13.23383 1$.29001 20.42964 29 99 13$ P[R.SOSISJ. Jt.(()t'. 57. 19$92 $3.20146 66.3661$ 69.55362 72.85313 U0.6J290 154.90!110 230.44640 ;sAl tf U S .198 m 812 .818 .823 .828 .8'1 .831 .826 .ass LESS TAXES 7 .0377' 7 .397$6 1 769$2 8 .95409 ll.$166; 13.7161 5 28 .97830 OISPOSol.SlE PER. m: 50.1$818 5 2 .75644 55.43 195 58.21148 61.00568 63.89904 81.92449 9!>. 9 167S lJS. SOllO 201.46$1 0 t'tEP.UC U 0 EX92 1!7 .$(1 ll9.9S920 12'2.57760 12S.21SS lKQ)o.: I'WI!.f AtTIJRE 2.106g.s 2 .13001) 2 .11382 2 21053 2.2"739 2 .28611 2.651!5 2.918'1 3.70243 lli.RA&.;!S LS9912 1.61991) 1.64250 1.66 1.6 9129 1.71701 1.99072 2.22169 2 .73247 "CNOLRABI.E'S .50781 )19-Qf) .53132 .54371 .SSSll .56911 .67042 7S672 .96997 1.2105$ NOS KAJ;UfACT'U!if 1 8 .83110 19.73568 20.67744 21.67956 22.69827 23.16926 30 .61279 36.78398 63. 6 1681 82 21767 HWIIiG .01522 .<11571 .01623 016i4 .01723 .01772 .02079 .oz:m .02782 .03456 CCNT OOKSTRLICTIOS 1.69352 1.75813 1.82441 1.8!956 1. 9732:1 2 .05036 2 .55109 3 0 3030 4 4 !2Z8 6 .92620 TAA.'iSPORT PUa UT 1. 15009 l.li!6Q4 1.22280 1 l.29Sll 1.33666 1.546l5 1.69234 2 .03772 2'.5601Z f!IW.'CL IllS .. Re: 2.13507 2'.ll419" 2 .Z9429 2 .37681 Z .4.5!iQ3 2.5" 187 3 .02131 3 .39821 4 .35241 R.ETAIL l'R.UJE 2.98'59 3 .08674 3 ,18927 3 .2;796 3 .<0566 3.$1764 4 .19481 6 .22142 8 .?0692 'II' H ) LESALE TIV.IJE 1.21008 1.24598 LV460 1.30493 1.33517 1 5$383 1. 76320 2 .20969 2 .88331 SER\'ICES 9 .605!13 1 0 .20117 1 0.84107 11.49892 1 2 1935-i 16. 20.92355 52 .31373 AGRJIFOR/Fl S H .59W .624a8 .65261 .68181 71185 .97&!1 1.20930 LSS7U 2 .93218 T OT"L GO\'f:liii'INl' 2 g.c,osa 3 .1117 2 3 .:!0088 3 .,9CS1 3 .68621 3 .89244 S.l2846 6.2l216 9.14710 13.9830$ ST AAD LOCAL 00\'l 2 .6S07 5 2 .82230 2.99976 3 .18345 3 .31292 3 .57257 41.7401 7 5 77655 8 .52184 13.11003 F 0 C.f)lll C l 'llllk'i .26152 .266<3 .2714S .27670 .28222 .28806 .34875 .40830 .50557 .778Z9 FED GOVT H !LllARY .02831 .02898 03036 .03101 .03180 .03%5 .04731 .C0569 .09471 rm. 1207' .12130 7332!. .73869 7"411 .74-916 .84486 .94727 1.19362 1.47295 I F ALL 0 .0'$ THN POOfiUTOiiS 111.'001 1";.$: 6Eil XEAG> INTO OTtiER iNCCHE. B -14

PAGE 113

. . . AN ANALYSIS OF THE EcONOMIC IMPACTS RAIL TAStE 8-1 5 : S'f fiNAl O EW..'i!> TA&.E FOR OlASf MS!Oll (81LLJCNS Cf CHAIII 0 1992 US WITM 1/.:.I.JIE 'J.OOEO) 1999 21!00 2001 20(!.2 2000 200< 2010 201& 2025 20:!5 f(S T fCST FCST f(ST FCST FCST FCST FCST iCS T FCST TOTAl 33.07569 33.94376 3 U2S28 3S.72332 36.58349 37.413'9 4 2 .25959 51,).&<153 59.&59SO TOT!ot COIISU'268 68.87943 81.7$911 /IJJI'OS AliD f>AATS 2.43992 2 .S2816 2.6G12' 2.68350 2.76083 2 .!3317 3 .1202a 3.23268 Fl..m & HSa!LO EO. 2.92\171 2.99'94 3.069<3 3.14.511 3.214&2 3 .2&125 3 .93153 4 .33C23 5 .00151 6 .00567 OTHER OUPJ.9LES l.M09 1.29953 1.3302; U6138 l.JS99S 1.41836 1.60452 l.JCS;01 0 .0'057 .04076 GIU''/AG!i.Pfl> .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .OO!lCO .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 4.261!04 4 .'1814 4,571)$ 4 .73401 4 .8979S s.t\1256 5 .81857 6.:;$345 7 .2S700 8.53 414 FE{) OOY tULJTAAY .42078 .mm ,4ZJJ9 A2 4 7l .42601 .42734 A70D4 .5543!. .65!lol8 F rJ:PI C JVJUAX' .23953 .23793 .23528 .23463 .ZJJOl .23134 .27026 .34858 S1AT1t.OCAl GOV 3.7587, 3.91752 .07o16i <1.22$97 <4.333S8 5.15674 5 .623 6 .3903! 7 .53506 'TOT.Al. iXFQR.TS !5.29&81 1 5.60469 1 6 .245&1 1 6 .55'927 16.87714 19.0246S 20.59611 23.35711 27.11992 EXOGafCUS O:P 00000 .00000 .COOO!l .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 EJIOCG"JICIJS EXP 15.29&81 15.60469 !5.92335 !6 .55921 1 6.8)774 1 9.02466 20.59611 23 .35711 27.11992 TOTAL L"!PORTS 4<1.23632 4 1. t7478 42.1247 9 43.09098 43.98538 44.87936 S0.2:JS96 53.19605 58.98441 70.00196 TOT alP BY VIC /.oo 33 .07509 33.94375 34.82528 35.72332 36.511349 37.45349 42,25958 4$.22596 50.81:163 59.85950 TOT M F YN.. All TOT 00'1 29 6!638 2 .69582 .65)49 30,476'94 2 ,76055 .611616 31.28230 2.86411 .67687 lZ.lC63S 2.94580 .67115 32 .89512 $.02 5 1 4 6 6323 33.6'9455 3 .10-m 6 5 !09 37.965$3 3.68611 70$93 40.S7Z07 .75965 45.5801)3 4 A 090S .85:!95 $3.71108S 5 18678 .98183 B -15

PAGE 114

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T MI. E 8 16: SOPER SIJ'I.KARY TA&. ftR CCI.NTY CCtliRtt. (TAll!. R tFiWICES IN PAAfNTHES.!$) ,.,, 20t 0 2COl 2.102 2<)04 2010 2015 102$ 203) fCST fCST fCS l f'CST FCST FCST fesT fCST !'CST FCSi TOT Al ati'tOYHEIIT (3) ]71.739 7ao.a&9 7S9.e&:l i'S9.689 808.994 818.25$ SU.JCO 694.357 935.007 1017.129 EXP tor us .S 8 V flW. t (! loW(! SILL. Of OIAIUEO 92S... TABL E S 10 StTOa. OfTA{L (SEE TABLE 2 FOil H l 0 X ) . . TABlES J 14 OCCUPATJCfiAL PLOYWfl ... . .... .... TABlE 15 OCCUPATJCflAL v I:.GE AAT (tWIG . .. . ...... T/IBLE 16 MISCELLAAECUS DAT A LA3M POOw:TlYJT'f . . lASU:S 1 7 A l7a -"9 CETAtl (S TASI. 2 !t10 X) . TABlE'S 1849 B

PAGE 115

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T:0'3LE 817: SU'ilt.!8Y TP&.E fCft PRIVATE .HCtlFAJlti SCTCf(S FrR l!m{AA CWffi' OOIVTW'..t faf::Cr\ST. AAEI'S(lO SECT 4 9 SCl) ) 1999 2000 2001 201)2 2003 2CI>< 2010 20 !. 5 202S 2C>lS f'CS1 fCST f'CST f'CST FCSl ftST rcsr FCST FCST f'CST P.:UVATE ON rn:li.ISA'IOS Of P E !Pt.El MtJ iT$ OEcm!POSTlOtl B Y O F O,Y;,)IItJ: :iQT I.t El'IPL YMUT ( 7 18) 684.7 692.C93 699.257 107.321 714.907 722.493 763. 3 e o 821.794 &92.331 llfTERIIATE (7 .19) 159.-557 161.643 1 43 .639 165.932 168.03* !8 1.811 169.30!1 200.75C 220.485 lOCAl CX!NS'J!1 ( 7 20) 32S.21l 33l.J69 334.31)4 337.770 3'1LC09 34 .254 353.996 376.49$ 395.155 43il.e65 Gf:IIT tawi!) (7 .Zl) 9.222 9 .4&7 9 .705 9 .%3 10.200 10.4U 11. 676 l.Z.432 13.437 ACTVTY (8,22) '0 .989 2>.869 27. 7i6 27.819 27.628 27.669 27.557 2 1 .539 27.830 :10.535 EXP US/WORLD(8,23) 123.269 124.906 126.$97 1Zii.2Sa 129.913 13l.Sll 138.476 141.759 1MU1 9 1&3.07ll XP KULTREG ( 8.2 36..71 36.809 31.156 37.563 37.919 38.264 40.009 40.548 MI .... 43.m EXOOEKOUS {8. 25) .oco .oco .030 .CO:I ceo .oco .000 .coo .003 .coo COSTS Nil SELI.lt\G PRICES 1 0 THE ti. S : SB.Ll.S PRiCE {9.26) l.OOHI 1.00422 I.OCMI1 1.00383 1.00358 1.003l6 1 .0C055 .99711 .99640 1.00152 FACTOR INfUTS {9.27 } 1.02133 1.0 1.01961 1.01667 1. 01771 1.01686 1.01024 1 .00423 1.00155 1.0062:7 (9.28) 1.05244 l.C6CS4 l.ll-181& 1.04EO< 1.04201 1.02Sa7 1.01794 1.01201 1.01750 f'IJEL (9.29} .89111 .8911 1 .6$-117 .89417 .89<117 .89411 .8941? .$941 1 .8941 7 .$417 CAP!lll (10 ,30} .99744 .99797 .99630 .99857 .99881 .999CS 9991 0 .99!04 .99879 1.0::1302 WTiiHEO JliPUT$(10.31) 99599 .99584 .99643 .99602 .99557 .99516/ .9921 3 .98896 .98796 Olt'lR 'IAAIA31.:S: R!L PR.OO tfG {10.32) .83982 .83982 !89!!l .855$2 .88982 .88982 .$89$2 .89962 .88982 .88!i82 Ri;L PRa:' W G (10 .33 } .94827 .94-882 .94965 .9S021 .95089 .951SO .95&00 .9SE05 .95894 .95596 L.t.OCR IUTEJQIY(Il.34) .%985 .%992 .96905 .96921 .96952 .96982 .97536 .98105 .99435 lfJLT ADJ (11.35) 1.00296 1.00256 1.(! 0295 1 .00296 1.00256 1.002% 1.00295 1.00296 1.002.95 1.00296 DiP t (:U.S. (11. 36) .5:!2 532 .531 .S3! .531 .536 .541 .56< .S69 R?CI-SS/OEW!SO ( 11. 37> .567 .56 1 .558 .569 .569 .570 570 .570 .572 .$71 ,\\I S lolASFTlfJUS (12, ) 62.62715 63.12104 64.S0925 65.91553 67 0!617 75.SS077 8D.8C817 S0.72'l3 Z l 06 .1242ij IHPCftTS (12.41> 27.1-*824 27.57430 27 .>9937 28..45965 2a.a9S18 29.34599 32.49306 34 .72279 38 .55854 4S.S4f6!1 SEU StJPPlY <13.42 ) 3S.47891 35.609!8 31.51589 36 19009 3&.89781 43.ns270 <16.08&39 Sl.!6267 61>.57161 EXFO.US !13.43 ) 12.06499 1 2 .37551 12.68S62 12.9SSSS 13.29712 1 6 .24992 18.31999 2l.l21l63 UITRAAm TRO (1 3,44) 4,18160 -4.28019 4 .38179 4.48963 4 .S9429 4.69960 5 .32961 6.48964 7 i lfl-11 O:CG11t\IS PRUI {l3 .45) .ooono .oocco .cooco .occoo .oacoo .oocao .cooco .ooooc .coooo .occoo O!ITM (14.46) 51.42527 52.4919'2 53.56728 54.69112 ss.na83 56.884&3 63.4 1792 6S.0818C 76.67231 89AOS91 30 .02245 30.71717 31.42147 32:.16C4' 32.8S120 33.62467 37.62718 40.42685 53.18625 H I 81LL!Ct6 Of tJ!o1!t(p,l S S: lolb.SQSN. 0158 (14 .48 ) 17. 16451 17.82191 18.49503 19.22166 20.75628 20.013C-5 31.09352 66.85191 B -17

PAGE 116

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECON O MIC I MPACT S TA3L i: 6 16: E K\Q'tlttKT fffi 00...'AAb CWflY W.'TRCt (IN TI'O'J SN05 0: PEOPLE) 2000 2001 1002 2C03 2<)04 ZOl O 201$ 202S 20J$ fCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST Ft5T feST FCST ttAXUFACfl!Rt 41.117 4l.lS3 40. S1l J.9 .981 37.921 35.735 3 0 .1!00 21.614 ISAlOJ'U. S . m .231 .23'3 .22$ .221 .226 .Z2S .22S .226 .221 OOIVSL E S 29 .620 Z9.CS5 26.$39 za.o.u V.$39 21.03S 25.181 23.357 19 .481 16.970 NJ!J!Va.E5 13.317 J3. 249 1 3 .178 1 3 .112 13.C33 12.946 12. 740 12.357 11.319 1 0 .704 UCN r..INUFJ.CTI.R( 641 849 649.788 E67 .S41 665. 169 5 7 4 .334 72'5.439 751.794 790.99-$ 854.657 ;!.$ ,\ Of u s .582 .581 .S79 .578 .SiS .577 ,$n .579 sa; .597 HlHINS .51 5 5 1 2 5 1 0 .507 .SOJ .459 ... I 457 .399 .362 COI'<'f (Q' IS"m.ICTlOII 47.9SO 48.379 48.174 49 2$5 4 9.707 S2.S1 816.295 856.300 89-'.35 7 935.007 1017.129 AS A f C f U S .505 .S06 .506 .507 .5!lS .509 5 1 5 .521 .534 .549 FOPLlAT!OK 1551.135 1580. 659 1608.66-9 16.:)5.656 t65t.ais 16a7 .340 1824.529 1922.493 2115 .434 2330.130 AS At (;I U S. .569 .575 5$1 .566 .590 .$94 612 .620 .632 .662 B -18

PAGE 117

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TIStE 8 19: P'rR.SQIVJ_ JlfC:t[) OOt.M'Y OO:ITRt'L Fa:tECI.ST. (lH BltUOIIS O F NCt1UW. octi.AJiS) 1999 2>JOO 1))01 2002 2<103 2()04 201G 2>l15 2025 2005 FCST FCS T R:ST FCST FCST FCST fCST FCST FCST FCST AJID SAL 0158 19.82184 2<1. 61733 21.43244 22. 30038 23.2<1354 24.15:65 30.39915 36.39201 52.3152-6 ".69850 PR.CfRJETORS l tt:Ctlt* .00000 .OODCG .OODCG .GCOOO .coooo .oooao .coooo .ocooo .OOOOG cmiER l :acR 11001 4 .41 ..1808 4 .859S7 S.O&ll1 5 .3156e 5.56006 7, 17341 8.73900 12.75.914 18.95395 O(R.IVATlON OF PERSOOJ. !Nttl'!E 8Y PlACE ()F lO T I.A&R+ PMP 111: 24.266SS 25.26540 20.29201 28. 5 1922 29.71470 37.56256 65 .07440 96.65746 ASH Of U S .474 .474 .473 .4i4 .474 .474 A76 .47 8 .490 .5118 LESS SOC HISR OtT 1.52597 L$924 1,6$(12 1.72:362 ) .67059 2.36002 2 .!m72 4.09723 6 .10487 PUIS RUIO !\OJ 3 .1 82Sl 3 .:!5339 3 .53011 3.71769 3 .91078 4..11254 S .:>\558 6 .43359 9 .16605 13.56725 P1.US OIV.llff.R:Kr 1!.60229 12.09777 12.60087 1 3 .12586 13.65M6 14.21230 17.85266 2l.2>JD76 29.61190 42.98'940 Pt.US TRAilSrot. PAY 6.87387 7.162$9 7 45074 7 .75111 8 .05059 8 .36108 12.25341 16. 96 1 83 24.61202 PUSOX.tJ. 44.39950 '8.21960 50.26160 5-2. 3441..1 54.53\100 68.80431 8Z.18G6S 116.7170() 171.72130 o\S A Hf U.S. .619 .620 .619 .m .620 .620 .62>l .618 .622 .637 LESS iAXES 5.50715 5.74611 5 .9J112 6 .25097 6 .516% 6 .79584 8 .62163 1 0 .34278 14.79459 Z1.B6314 OISPOS.l.il.E 9R INC 38.89241 4 0 .S4:JSO t2.22e47 44.0106, 45.82715 47,73319 60. 182&9 71.63907 149.e5810 PCE PRICE lNDr.X92 118.9)410 121.64660 l24.34440 121.1ono 129.92620 132.82020 15 1.4ill0 i69 .999CO 211.72131) 266.553 10 RE"-DIS Pal INCD.'1.62408 35.27113 35.93820 3U3185 42.50798 4$.139S8 56.m73 AS A l Cf' U.S, .617 .617 .617 .61 8 6 1 8 .618 .621 621 .626 .639 R.D. limE Pt."lUW 21.0 7478 21.08562 21.11118 21.16329 21.2237 0 2 1.29973 21.77ESO 22. UOS6 22.75651 24.12772 OF l.JSOR PROPRlETOO'S r...vllfACTUR l.SS'-6'3 1.91305 1.93822 1.56455 1.99U63 2.01796 2 .26244 2.451!56 2 .87397 3.46518 WI0\9'-ES 1.39633 1. 1.42345 1.43956 1.45369 1.4>96'3 1 .62167 1.7359:1 1.56136 2.!2729 tll}l00fW31..S .49".>35 .5<1409 .51477 .1;2;59 .$3694 .64076 .7226'5 9l26l 1.17789 1 8 .98597 19.78465 20. 6039J 21.48750 22.39482 23 .35631 29.70171 35 .8S609 52.21712 78.09438 HlmiS .01122 .01145 .01169 .Ol\94 .01217 .01241 014 1 6 .01556 .OU!57 .02278 O::._,'T ClliSTRilC'i1Ct( 1.52306 1.57909 1 .03'119 1.10011 1. 766$ 1 .8346'9 2 .30669 2. 7782$ 4.07394 6 .26791 1/WlSFCRT Pll3 UT 1.407ll l.4f>l0 0 1.49501 1.54139 1.58802 1 .63655 1.89281 2.09185 2.53984 3 16248 FlW..'ICE.ltS. R 2.22185 2.29266 2.35537 2 .43932 2 .51525 2.96664 3 .36725 5.69409 RETAIL TRACIE 3 .12751 3 .20429 3.28155 3 .35631 3.45258 3 .54470 4 .l563Z 4 .75221 8.672'0 l!W) 1.71148 1.74637 i, 7$420 1 .awe 2.166e3 2 .42539 3 .05515 3 .93$99 SER'I'1CES 8.90890 9 .94167 10.50940 11.09763 11.72284 2G.0829S 31.32536 .t.SA.i/rol:/FJSH .15061 .16905 .20713 .21673 .zvo a .29888 37262 S 746S 3.35976 3 .54638 3 .72830 3 .91 11195 01848 $ .51365 6 75941 9 .9
PAGE 118

AN ANAl. YSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF Ft.ORIDA HIGH SPEED RAil. 3 -2D: 81 flw.l. OEI'RI!> TA&..E f ()R SRl:MAA.O COORI:L fcmt:CJ.ST. t8llliCNS Of' (.MAIU[() 1992 1.6 tQ..l,J.'&R(COKCH.EO !lJTH Vo\tli A00) 1993 2;)00 2;)01 201)2 2;)04 2025 203) resT F C S T fCST f (.S T resT F'CST FCST resT rcsr FCST TOTI.t 33.72lZ9 34.491(6 3;.29JE6 35.88145 41.29805 44.38457 s.a. 4(lS6{l TOTU. OOIISU' 16.42 16.48.151 16.90114 )1 .32034 17.72926 18.14-150 20.5282, 22.17159 25.00557 29. 05 772 TOTAL II"PPRTS 18.12132 2 8 .55094 28.9712-3 29.43969 29.87437 3&.32400 33.55307 35.84692 4(1.1!797 47 .
PAGE 119

AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS ... : 8 1: SUPER St.fi!\.lq_y TA8LE 8-AD Cctmi(l. Ft'Rt:CAST. RfRittS !M PMt:.l!TtStS) 1999 "'()() 2<101 2002 2003 ""' 2<110 201$ 202$ 203$ fCSl fCSl f'CST fCSl fCS1 fCS1 fCST fCS1 FCST FC$T TOTAL EMPLOYHM T (3) l2U .063 1235.60-4 125&.643 121S.939 1314.611 1401.652 14J.3.161 1493..462 1613.735 !l

(5) 57.181 58.6>11 60.1.00 61.766 83.303 64.869 7 3 .196 78.683 es.49o 103.400 PRS0}1Al Itm (4) 52.956 55.52$ S!J.ll 6 1 .023 63.956 61.oao 66.352 103.-515 145.969 213. 79! PERS Hit % fF liS .739 .7.C3 .747 152 .757 .762 .778 .778 .778 .793 OlSFOSAa.E Hltn'!E (4) 46.400 48 .653 50.9$1 53.458 56.038 75.657 9 0 64 1 127.577 166.811 PCE -PAICE lHOOC-92 (4) 119.900 122.730 12$.61)1 128.543 131.543 154 039 172.019 215.042 270.082 R(t)l OISP INCCtiE (4) 38 m 39.642 40.593 4 1 .-595 42.60 1 43.631 <19.115 52.693 59.321 69.168 R.D.liXE''E PR/C!Jl(4) 17.570 1 7 .696 17 .szo 17.963 18.103 18.241 18. Sl$ 1 9.482 20.726 PCPULATIGN ( 3 } 2202.587 2241.1.182 2277.747 235).693 2391.892 261 0 .071 2170.076 3l37 .306 "lP IQ% C1' US .808 .SIS .822 .829 .836 .8'2 .893 .933 !iOTE Fot all tab les: EHPLOYEUf & POPULIIT JON in of p!OI)le OCUAA to.'lctpt$ llt"f i n IHt.LfOI\S ()f Qli\IIED 92S L n les s otherw ise 1nd1cated and l'a!. CAf>tlA ate 1 n CF REM. OOLI.AA$. SUPER Sltt' 8Y FiliAl OEIWID 61ll. tf' ti'J..HIEO 92S ... To'S!.E S 10 SECTOR OETAIL (5 TASL. 2 roR H ... T A liLES 1 8 -'9 B -21

PAGE 120

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS Tlo9LE B.Z: Sl,tt(A,ItY Tlol!l F'()i( PRJVAT'E t;CfiFAJ'S!JM ( 7 485,161 492 .901 500.26) 508.4SO 516.428 524.222 S6l.266 SS2.CS9 634.146 6SS.489 G0\'1' OEJW{I (7 21} 13. 3$2 13.59) 13.8S i 1 0:.119 14.382 14.662 15.834 16.3b.S 16.8 7 6 1 7 .959 ttNrsr Ac:n'TY 32.487 3J.CSO 33.561 :U.l3S 34.667 3S.1SO 3S.8C2 35.383 3S.041 39.222 EXP USIYORlD<8.23) 205.730 208.563 21! .3911 2 1 4 169 216.782 219.301 228.158 231.213 232.339 241.924 E X P <8.24) 8'.70 5 85.702 60.655 tr1.118 SS.571 $9 .558 94.160 9H90 9] .482 104.96] X:OSEI.O!JS < 8.2:5) .COli .COl) .OOD .ceo .11(!0 .ono .ono .coo 000 .ooc CC&TS ANI> SELLHIG RELioTI\' TO TH U S : SEU.JKG tR ICE 1. 001)91 LOOlll 1.00313 1.0:}417 1.00513 1.00604 1.()0749 1.00554 1.00(90 1.00557 ; ACTOR liiPIJTS 1.02235 1.02:;30 1.02400 1.02472 1.02 532 1.0 251:8 i .0241 0 1.01362 1.(11490 < 9 28) 1.07453 1.01561 1.07615 1.07531 1.0765 0 !.06931 1.0472\1 Ulo1723 nn (9. 29) .9C91 9 .9C9 1 9 .90919 .9!1919 90919 .90919 .90919 .90919 .90919 .93919 CAPllo\1. U O ,.JO) .95441 . ..., ...... .93760 .93660 .98957 .99240 .9923< .99119 .99433 Hlml 0 Jt.P\.IT$(10.31) 1. 0(}478 l.OCS69 1. 00538 1. O!l7ll 1.00761 l.0 0it!7 1.00533 i .OCIZll l .OD-365 Oltftq 'IAAI/.8LES: REL PR.OCl I'FG 00.32) .85839 868;9 868;9 .856S9 .86Sl9 .85839 .86839 .86839 REL PRW l'fG 0 0 .33) '906-93 .9!1809 90924 91048 .91442 .91720 .920 1 9 .91922 rurn&TYULJ.t) 9JCOll 93117 9317 3 93228 9 3281 .93620 .009S3 -. 9Sll8 HUll A0J Ol.J5) 1.00ll6 1 .001 6 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 1.00116 r.P 1 Of u .s. (11 36 ) .1!28 .832 .835 .839 .842 .846 .850 eo; .617 .543 .!M .!M .!M .545 .S4S .544 .54-' .5!5-AVG 26.7t.4 zt .s1a 28.431 29. 3 1 6 30. 231 3 1.193 37.4$2 43.65; 81.936 lliO':. K X tNV:t U2.39} 1.05167 UlSllO 1.05009 1.04979 1.04910 l.IUlJ8 1.03805 1.03241 L02716 IH 81LLJCtlS fE i:W..IN 199l OCUAAS: C(IWIO 02:.40 ) 105 .66510 1118.291&1 !10 .90490 113.65360 116 .332Y.l U9.0S010 13-4.240 160. 816'0 187 92<1SO iHPCRT$ <12.41) 48 2 4824 SO.S624S SL781S7 52 .96895 $4. !7086 6 1.20869 65.57935 73.07044 65.42606 SEL F SVP?L Y (13 41) 57 4 17U S 8 .SWI1 60 .3424 9 6 1.87205 63 .36367 64.81924 73.00193 78.28849 102.49450 XPI:mTS (13, 43} 20.&1359 21. 4 1011 21.98960 2 2 .55493 23. 12560 23.696<0 26.735C3 Z$.87135 32.670'23 37.84594 IN'TAAREG TRD U3 44} 10. 69 185 l O .S-1791 11.!:7192 11.72571 11.9BU04 14 .tS077 16.32365 19.41219 cxo;(t.OUS P iittln3 45) .00000 .OC003 .OOOJO .occoo .occoo .ocooo .COCco .oocoo .00000 .coono Ct!TPUT (14 46 ) ae.9S..>99 9 1.2 93 .53716. SS.9C690 98.21489 1 00 55570 113.22500 121.6100!1 135.739M 159.81260 GR?
PAGE 121

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL .. . . lAfLE 6 .(3: EtiPLOY.:>DIT TABU FOR DioDE tO'UIITY cti'rnul. FtftECASl. UK THCliSAI-bs \k PEOPLE) 1993 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2\l10 2025 2035 fCST fCST fCST FCST FCST rcsr fCST F
PAGE 122

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TJ;SL B -24: PERSCtW. )li())1 T.lBt t feR IYDE COI.Ifm' CQ!m:IOt. FCRECAST, { H I 6llUO!I$ Of t;()IJIW. OO.LAAS) 2000 2001 2002 2003 ''"" 2>310 2QlS 202S 2035 rcsr FCST FCST FCST FCST fCST FCSr fCST FCST fCST WAGE NIJ SR. OJS8 33. 15123 34.74264 36.37969 :;a. 1V98 S3.S9391 64.36446 9 1. 78591 1 35.41210 .O!lGOO .00000 .CilOOO 00030 .OCC'O!I .00001) .00000 .00000 .oaooo .03!100 OTIO. LAW!: WCQHt 7 4$788 7 .8S5JS 8 .23703 8 .64! 6 1 9 05049 S.S0065 12.31627 14.95734 21.59308 31.80031 OERJVATJ()tl OF II>C()'. 8Y PLAC OF TOT !.AOOR. Pli.OP iHC. .t{l,639i!. 44. 61672 4 6.76918 48.98891 51.32020 65.91019 79.321!0 113.37910 167.21240 AS A l OF U S . 793 .795 .&" .81 4 .819 .836 .84! .854 .879 Lt'SS SOC lliSR Oil 2 .42444 2 .54408 2.66721 2.19878 2.93-125 3 .07658 3.96058 4.76952 U2889 1 0 10725 FtiJS RESJI> J4)J 4 i-3203 .96964 5 .214.32 5.47554 .74511 .02803 .] .77570 9. 365U 13.351m 9.8803T Pt.US 0 1\',It.'T.REiiT 9.535 1 2 99-4-56 10.41214 1 0 .98083 ll.S!WOO 12.05175 1S.SSU2 18.63237 25 84U2 37.43481 PlUS iAA'iSF!R PAY 9 .931!05 10.44879 10.97789 1 1.5%79 12.1311 2 12.7525-3 16.59592 t9.69i'IW FEF:S<'..w.t letcet1E 52.95582 67.02966 56.::5205 H-5. 90880 213.19770 :.SA t O F U S .739 .743 1l.i' m .757 .762 .1i8 .178 .118 .793 TA'(ES 6.55G03 & .87482 7 .20>$1& 7 ,5-5SJS 7 91751 8.2'9/94 10.69-f.91 12.81430 18.331-Q PER. lNC 48.65279 00. 98 1 0 0 53.46794 S6. 0 J 8l 7 58.73192 90.6'113 127.51141} 186.810&.1 PC -PRJ<:E lKOEX-92 m. 9aoto 122.72960 125.60110 128.54300 131.54280 1S.L0l9SO 172.01BSO 2lS.042'0 210.03170 $!;!L O J S Pfl\ HIW!E 3S. 69tm 39.64226 40,SS9S2 4) .59339 42.6006'9 43.63140 49.11$42 52.69258 59.32661 :.S .\ t O F U S .734 737 .742 745 .751 767 .770 n2 .785 R .O. INCCtl 17 .5SS66 17.69000 l7 .96316 18.05931 18.2,1:-8 18.81762 19.02201 1 9A8168 20.12515 or t.AOOR A-'iO P!ilJPR!rrms HiCOt'.E: /'l.m!JFA.Cll=R 2 81X* 2 .$8124 2.96237 3 .00993 3.11663 3 .19491 3.67202 4.045 1 7 4 ,86452 6 0 3001 D'JIW3tES 1.29312 1 .32691 1.36018 1.A2720 1.4604 3 L67041 1 .82635 2.145$9 2 .59341 H:lNCOR;lSHS 1.51961 1 .56043 1.50219 1.64574 1.65942 l 73448 2.[!0161 2.21$82 2.11852 3.43690 NCtl 31.75260 33 .34057 34.97211 36.72\113 40.40913 $2.22390 63.099S! 9(). i78C2 134.76!9:1 .02985 .0020$ .03310 .03415 .039a2 .05161 .OS2 s;; OOlCT 1.70$99 1.791 2 4 1 .$183& 2 .06605 2 16382 2 .71735 3.3S. R 3 .61275 3 .74216 .t. Ol!.JS 4 l49'26 98141 5.69430 7.37454 9 .86261 RET!\Il 'TIU.O 4 .231ag 4 .38378 4.536!9 4 .701115 4.8E$44 s.o.am 6 .072S3 6. 95578 9 .12525 W!QS!lt iP.AOt 3 .44895 3 54957 3.65338 3.1SSUI 3.a6232 3 .97058 .691)44 S.31lllS6 & .67773 8 .6225S SWICS 14.718Y.I 15.56852 li.72S02 18.&13:13 2G.02S8'2 2 7 .69168 35.05262 54.38571 85 .70580 19093 .20059 .210;D .22112 .23291 .24-ISS .32462 .
PAGE 123

, AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 1 OF FLORIDA HIGH !II.ILE 8 25: GRP 9Y flm.t OEKMO TA.IIl. FOR tW: WJ!m' Wffli:Cl. FORECAST (81LL!CUS O.F' OWII US ta..lAASREmiClLEO WliH 'I,ILUE lr:l!l) 2-!ICO 2COl 2.0!12 2<10> ""c' 2<110 201S 2D2S .,. FCST FCST FCST FCST fCST FCST f'CST rcsr FCST FCST TOT/.!. W S7 .18597 SS.E8710 60. 19954 6 1.76543 63.: 64.e6909 73.19579 76.68297 88.,9015 103.<40020 TOT/d. OO!i9.M>T1Ctl 59.194!3 6 1.23&28 62.71519 66.62746 79.92<0187 89. ,2490 Ul4.72120 JJJTGS AXO PAATS 4.10912 4 .23793 4 .S02Sa 4 .63754 4.77510 5.56177 6.08796 7 .!l9SS2 FI.R' & I!S9il) EQ. 4.24841 4 .3489 4 .44807 ,S6517 4 .66<147 4.16766 5.15116 6.42425 7A3422 8.8>978 OTHER Ol!RABLfS 1.46174 1 .50004 1.53179 LE6624 1.60!10$ i .63447 1.66166 2.00587 2.25588 2.65021 fOO!) & W! ERI.-SES 9 .90639 10.00632 t O.t233n 10.23592 1 0 .3485l 11.04195 U.43l!l9 12.30425 14.26407 & SilO$ 3.29266 3 .3J4S2 3 .45540 3 .628C3 3 .7151 8 4 18199 4,46079 4.9535Z 5 .8131 8 Eo\SOUNE & 01l 1.60093 1. 6 1391 1.62247 1.63373 1.64<36 1 .65406 1.74201 u9m 1.91682 2 21476 ft.a. OIL & OlAl .C6976 .C0959 .00960 .00953 .00945 .CG931 .COSS4 .005 .00814 .0691C ()TMER NCtiOOPABLES 4. 74481 4 .90300 5 .06442 5 .22837 5 .39071 6.420 1 0 6 .937ns 7 .93471 9 J6n3 HCOSIIll 5.796<5 6 .00887 6 .11761 6.22363 6.91 291 7.49093 7. 99945 9 .32575 HS&LO <>PtRA'TICtl 4.41142 4 6 1642 <4.761<15 -' .91.539 5 .CI6722 5.22249 6 .Q4775 6.56412 7 .U57A 8 .71974 2 .50355 2.5&JSO 2 .59624 2.6465C 2.69570 2 .74559 3 .00041 3 .153$5 3 .;..1998 4.0 1643 li/UH SERViCES 5.93639 6.10431 6 .27288 6.45238 H275S 6 .81034 7 .6Sl23 8 .56 li 70oiSS 11.21748 OTMER SERVICES 10.36104 10.72089 11.09443 11.48194 11.86479 H .U963 1 S .687ol8 17 .8596! 21.06735 TOi/4. FIXED !liVEST 8 5!1<41 8,10004 9.00395 9.2Z351 9.43ll94 9.m\'AGRFFO .cooco .COCCO .oocoo .C003C .oocoo .ococo .oooco .oocoo ocooc .ooooc TOTJ4. 001/UtKHfT 7 .59750 7.89217 $ .49$83 8.70015 9.56553 1<1.83243 12.2441 6 FED 60\' HlliTP.RY .S2161 .S2418 .82616 .823J3 .83187 .83448 .917SS .98419 l.l0193 1 .27021 Fm OOV Cl!JU,lNI .80548 .794'35 ,,_ .78322 .85283 .91503 1.02387 l.1&l23 $ lATEil.OCAI. Gf!l 6.06492 6 .26252 6 .46574 6 .67151 6 .87$11 1 .G904S 8 .195$5 8.9JZ60 10.11836 11.79255 TDT/U. iliFQRTS 33.235SO 34.13092 3 4 .98190 3S.8!14'l9 35.638$6 41.25497 44.46Sl6 50.2765S EXOSE'tiOUS EXP .cooco .oocoo .OC003 .COCCO .oocco .cooco .COCCO .oocoo .ocooo .coooo ENOCGEHOOS EXP 32.454lS 33.28550 34.13692 34.56190 35.80499 36.63896 4 1.25497 44.46316 50.27655 58.19290 TOTAl rnPOR:TS 50.06 183 51.24185 52.41305 53.65177 54.85347 56.00914 63.29257 67' 79642 75.5491)4 sa.m99 TOT Gil? BY VN:. AW 57.18597 5$.6$71 0 61.76543 73, 19579 76.6SZ97 68.49015 103.40320 TOT NF V.AL /JO TOT OV TOT V,ll .A00 4.97475. .36258 53.Z554Z 5.012'93 .35875 54.67117 .J5494 56.14C48 S .215C5 .35090 57 S .J761l .34676 66 .61246 6 2l37J .36961 71.55157 6 .7342Z .39717 eo.4s.e77 7 .58890 44641 94.073tW 8.81344 .51333 B 25

PAGE 124

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T.:.9LE 8 -26: SUPER Slt1XAAV TASL ro;t OllR RGJCtlS fE F LO!UOA CI).I{I'OOL fOOWST. {JAal K Ill 1999 2<10 0 2<101 2<102 2003 2004 2<110 201 5 2<125 2<135 f'C S T FCST fCST f'ts'T FCST FCST FCST Ft 5 T T O TAl. 2E6<.6S2 2712.121 2760.90& 2811.2S6 28&9.323 2905.605 3122 .831 J7SJ .U'9 tf(P % OF U S ) 74.4 l.i5 6 1.766 1.7S2 L79S 1.80 7 1.857 1.884 1 936 2 .026 T O T P R !\' !If EI1PLVTC2) 2 !87.650 2226.Z.SS 2267.38& 2306.243 2Sl S .Oll 26ill Sll 2724.622 3022.75!1 Pit E rP tOFUS 1.670 1.690 1.690 1.702 L71 3 1.165 1.7!8 1.837 1.926 GfU> 1 C 6 726 1 09 .593 1!2 .524 118 .C.S l 2 1.4SS 137.167 1 '9. .653 168.097 1 99.4$9 P!-.._ II34 2 .0.3$ O JSFCSASL!: I NCll'l (4) 112 .562 ll8 $ 1 6 124. 713 131.25$ !J7 .957 !44.879 225.295 318.265 481.413 Pi:E i'RtC UDX 92 (4) 111.888 114.38' 116 .9!6 1! 9 .5.21 l2l 1S.9 12<4.923 142.49<1 198. 60) 250.690 REAL DIS? (A) 100.602 103. 6 1 2 106.9 109. 8 8 H2.904 H 5 97 S 13 1. 1 4L&l1 1 60.252 1 92.035 !8.3!S 1 8 .399 1 8.S03 1 8.6...'9 18.74 6 1 8 .864 t9.aos 1 9 .489 19. 905 POPU..ATlO'I (3 ) 5631.$9 5764.803 Se9S. 1Sl .958 6148.C83 6B20.274 7276.CS'O 8050.758 8963.914 PO? AS t f:k US 2 .<116 2 .049 2.0&:1 2 .110 2 1 3 S 2.166 2 .289 2 .346 2A0i 2 .50' lilT For all tab l es: EI'.PlGYHEifT & PCAILAT!Ot: are ln l'!iCtiSAAOS o f people. OCUAA concep t s are in Of O i A it 0 92S lL'Iless otlterwis e lndicated and flU CAPlTA c'Jncepts a re 1 n ntCIUSI.."IIS Cf Afi'L to_LAAS. lCO T O AVAILABlE TASL E S SIPR S L ffiM TI.St E Jo.IIO IUERtKCE liST . TN!l 1 SL'Ii'WI:Y T.r.3l FOR PRlVA1E 2 Et'Pi.OYIWJT TJ.3L E & POPtu.l JCtl ... . ...... TMI.E 3 PRS'!JU!l lABl . .... . . . . ...... . GRP S'f Flll4l OEW..."I> Blll. OF CW.li!ED 92S .. TMI!..E 5 1 0 SEC1Cfl: CTAIL
PAGE 125

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF T.181. 8 27: TABLE FOR PRJ\'AT f'CR OTif:R. RGi0t2S CF flCfUOA OOirniCl R:RECJ.Sf. UIE'TAIL!D TA!lll: REF IN PAAEK!S(l0 SECT)) 1993 2 COO 2eo1 2COZ 2003 2004 2<11 0 2 015 2026 2035 fC$1 fCSl FCSl FCST FtST FtST FCST FCS T rcsr FCST PRIVATE EliPlOY11Xf (IN TltJUSNIIiS PEOPLE) A.'i!) lTS OECll'iFOSTlOK BY SIXRCE OF ()E.IW40: TOT.At ( 7 .18) 2!49.224 mr .6so 2226.365 2267.365 ms.243 2343.269 25 1 5 .01 3 261)3.511 2724.622 3022.750 ftrr'1iiATE (7 .19 ) 483.494 491.502 499.609 51!8.149 516.200 523.19< 561.423 582.28$ 613.7EO 680.940 LOVIL WlSLtt { 7 20) 1053.637 1 0 7 6.751 1099.737 1124.148 1147.305 1169.300 1275.214 1330 .423 1404. 8J6 1592.273 OOVT OEIWIO <1.21) 54.254 55 .273 56.315 57.51l0 58.656 S9.S82 6 5.673 6!. i2S 72.501 78.982 !WIEST H:l'IN (8.22) 100.319 100.766 101.300 102.124 1 02 .$)11 1 03.320 101.129 93 .961 98.007 111.927 O:P 359.669 354.540 369.569 374.558 319.4 i 9 J84.162 404.962 415.802 428.459 455.716 O:P IIJ.l.TR {8. 24} 9 7 .SM 98 .817 !19.773 100.866 101. 102.8:11 106.606 107 .316 1 07.05 8 112.911 E>llG&9'11 .$.94S1 .69411 .89<97 .89411 .89487 .89487 .89487 .89487 .89-187 WIT oiL (10.30) .96434 .9651 2 .96573 .%63< .96555 .96755 .95896 96 7 59 .97315 ItlPUTS(10, 31) .93128 .9>389 .92S91 .92911. .92597 .91240 .91931 .924G2 VAAtABLES: REL PRO!l HrG (10 32) .89007 .85007 .8900 7 .650ll7 .89007 .69007 .89007 .89007 .85007 .850:17 REL PROF WG (10.33) .95340 .96054 .96296 96514 .96929 .97537 .97962 .98312 .919<7 USOR. 1.02293 1.(l232S 1.02367 LGZ417 1 .02474 ).02538 l.C3oe9 1.0 3$.1-4 1.04564 1.05157 AOJ (11 ,35) 1 .(10172 1 .(10112 l.C0172 1.00 172 1.00112 1.00172 l.OD172 1.0017 2 1.00 172 1.0 0112 E>P t OF U.S. U1. 36l 1 .670 1.6SO 1 .690 1.702 1.713 1.724 1.765 1.785 1.837 1.925 (11. 31) .543 .543 .544 .544 .545 .54S .SM .545 .S45 A'IG OOUSC12.38) 2<1.852 21.423 22.0!11 22.60 9 23.245 23 .921 28.428 32.961 4.5.319 62. 474 Jlltt tUX WOX Cl2.39) .97337 .97284 .97232 .97!93 .97145 .97071 .90451 .96G$)' .95634 .95450 111 8llllOICS Of CP.AJIIED 1992 DCt..URS: (lfl'\4'41) (12.40) 22<60 101.m1o 122.18430 1 3 1.0672<) 176.27n0 Sil. F SUPPl.Y (13.42) 113.481:::170 11S.S8400 119.74060 123.01880 129.32050 146.05760 157.01633 171.15050 212.26990 EXPO.itts (1 3 43) 32.924:2Z 33.724{16 35.2%25 36.Q85S4 l.S9S82 43.78928 49.J9'371 S6. 9lnO l!fTRARf:G TR!> U 3.44 ) 8 .%ll4 9 .17333 9.40079 9 .64!58 9.87511 !0. 1 !,06 12.43JSS 14.14013 16.73001 cxccu:oos PRllt1U3. 45 ) .ococ o .OCOIIO .00000 .oeooo .00000 .co:mo .ODOOO .011000 .OOODO .ocooo CUTM (14.46 ) 154.58740 1S8.68lSO 162.S6540 16'1 .18030 171.35220 175.52>l20 198.15860 213.2392{) 2 40.68430 2SS.92360 GRP(YAL ADOE 0)(14,47) 81.38&48 89.$82>1 9(!.-2 $.10025 97.69763 103.3091 0 113.6962<1 122., 9540 164.67330 8ItLJCt1S Of S 'S: D!SB (14.,8) 44.83628 4 6 .8 5L2637i 5:J.W(I73 55.C552 8 7 1.4'973 85.81360 123.,17 1 0 188.84310 B 27

PAGE 126

AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORID A HIGH SPEED RAIL T.i\StE 8 : 6'!PI..OYMNT TASlE FCQ OTl!ER REGIOKS rH fLORIDA CCNTRO' .. FOI
PAGE 127

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAJL T;.&.E 8 29 : P""dSCtiAl l XOOY.E T.AaE fCft OTHEfl REGto:.S OF Fl.CRlO.'\ OOitTIJt 131. 90130 Hil.919S!l 149.3333>3 156. 928)0 164. tatoo 2'13. 392:)) 256. 41400 36UIS20 549.18&40 /.$!. OF U.S. 1.7$1 t.SOS 1.822 1.840 1.857 1.873 1.921 1 .927 1.934 2.038 LESS TAXES 1S.S96S7 16.38532 17.20689 18.0711 6 18.9"11&1 25.76657 31.11872' 44.65017 67.17210 O lSPOS.II!LE PEl t H I C 112.55210 118.51600 124.71260 131.2561 0 137.95680 144.87870 187.62&70 22&.2%20 318.26600 481. 4 1210 FCEPS!Ict HlllfX92' 111.8!$30 116.9 1550 122.18920 124.92283 1412.49$40 l:S.ES!OO 198.60260 2'50.6901 0 REAL O IS Pl !liCOI 100.60210 103.61200 106.669110 109.81810 112.90420 115.97460 131.670 141.80120 16!1.25220 192.03503 AS At 1:1! U.S. 1.698 1.91 8 1.938 L%9 1.978 1.936 2 .1)57 2 .0 7 2 2.01!6 2.181 R O H:ct PER/U\() 18.31S42 18.mu 1 8.50049" 18.62855 18.74564 18.86353 1 9 .'18371 1 9 .90523 21..$2312 O F l.la::Jit AXD POOP:RtrnR'S lt-ES 2 .671!68 2.74556 2.81381 2.86S65 2 .95831 3.03273 3.57118 4 .03317 5.12035 6.73876 fJ)t{ tiAXUFACTmE 50.94914 53.46030 5 6 .082e6 58.96403 61.&3771 101.83<170 1 4$ .83510 229.86490 11!Uit.G .25244 .2.5514 .2Sill0 .26073 .2.6373 .28334 .30021 .34107 .41017 COliT COtGTiai.TUN 5 .2.1739 5.47173 5.71416 5.96222 6.21834 7.84163 9 .38654 13.65297 21.s1ns l'RA!iSPOOl U1' 4 .07001 4.21067 4.3S4n .1,50658 4 .65968 4.81673 5 5 4859 6 .06$42 7 ,2{1829 8.98493 FUIM:E.JHS. Rt 5 .156<1& s.J62 FEO OOIT 11JllTA.q,V 1 .82785 1.87128 1.91544 1.96tll4 2 .(1361 2 Z.05358 2.5$367 3 .05492 4 .J(!6J6 6 .11573 F IA'\ 1.08051 1.09912' 1.10730 1.11549 1.122t.3 1 .2'6620 L .t t9SS 1 .76855 2.20593 If ALL ( ). O'S Tt!Etl JKW.E HAS SEEN t'iRSED UITO OTHER li\Oll!E. 8-29

PAGE 128

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONO M IC IMPA CTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL l.6U 8 30: Gil? 8Y FJII'J.t TASLE OTHER RGlCtlS !:$ FLOR.IIltl. CCtm.Ot FCRtCAST. (8JlUOIIS fK OW:t.W 1992 US OCtl..ARSRCCJtEO wmt \'Al.UE .1000 ) 1999 :zoot 10oz ::100) 20C4 1010 101$ 1025 2035 FCST rm FtST FCST FCST fCSi FCST FCST FCST FCST TOTAL Gil? 106 7256!1 112.52310 115.54190 121.45770 137.76690 148.6SUO 168.09700 199.45550 TOTAl. 102.72S9il 105..85110 109.04220 112.322.30 US..,818D 118. 61390 135 .446611 146 .1130C 1M.96Ul0 AIJTOS AU!> PAATS 4 74926 4 9 1 900 S.09311 S 2 7449 5 .62596 6 .26Sl6 6 .60461 7.2507S f'Uim & HSEiilO Q 5.69570 5 .85395 6.01SS1 6 .18459 6 .34731 6 .1061$ 'J .88]12 8 83,2 1 10 .-33992 12. 713% OTHER OOAA3t.ES 2.4a&U 2 .SS4Sl 2.62197 2 .69269 2.76C64 2 .82704 3 .23810 3.$0004 3.94872 4.S0097 FOOO S 14.38121 14.59876 14.81661 1$.04987 1 S .U667 15.46912 17 2ll57 18.59116 22.31122 a.onuN;; & SH:lts 5 1940) 5 .3!.736 5 .S{I4l S 5 .6682J S .81665 5.!8253 6 .77092 J .24550 8.08636 9.802 Gt.SCX..Ht & on. l .8112l: 1 8'363 l 8i581 VJ1077 Z 9424D 2.970$8 3 .15150 4 .17754 & ctot l5C85 JSOTI 149'77 ,14927 .14763 1 4 0l5 .13405 .1:mJ .15043 OTliER 7 .3Z405 7 ,Qlj.Si J 92480 8 .22661 8 .52Z49 8 .82<166 11.306:24 12.91049 15.57164 I+Ji.'SiH& Jot3440:9 14.70436 1 5 .0579.3 l5,.C0$Jl 15.7437$ 15.0 7643 17.78191 Z0.1&342 24 .69894 HSH..& OPEAAT!OII 6 .89843 7 l.t:SS3 7 ,$ 7 .6SS42 7 9526'9 8 .21S4l 9 5rol3 1L829{)8 14.38234 3 .76975 3.85914 3 .9S03J 4 .046 1 5 ,,zt626 4 65437 4 .90595 5 .36402 6 .47932 HA1. Ttl SER\'ICS 17.2,5977 1 7 .83J72 18. SlJ31 1 9 .1458!1 19.76093 23.$4683 30.60615 OlliR S.'/!CES 17.66907 19.US.I2 20.6212:1 2).;6)36 25.20720 2 1 .62759 31.59793 38 .40918 TOl'Al nxto t..,.t s r 2.0.8S057 27.35791 21.83392 28.29702 3 0 .i6S47 J2 .o&IM 34.88019' 42 .c29S2 RSIOMT1Al. 6 .lle&S 6 .1731}3 6.27SS1 6 .31160 6 .329<16 6 .11349 5 .81263 $ .839<4 1 .3174:8 !&)II R!StOEUTl,JL 4.68279 4 .76928 4.831&3 4 .89181 4:95 184 5 .28341 5.462'6{1 $ .8$:!06 1 O !UG Pr(l!>. cu:t. rcmP 1.5.21635 1S.S22S9 15.86126 16.25060 16.630SO 17.01612 19.3SS5l 20.83935 2 3 .1676& 28.10094 (6j li(T t\'A KJSC. .31481 .:!0'19 .193$9 .Z$321 .Vl72 .)4565 .15127 .1S.UJ .15754 Gll9\'AGRPFO .00000 .00000 .00000 .onnoo .oonoo .ocooo .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 107AL GrJ'/t:lill'i E iti 29.85769 3U0992 31.35!199 32. 10612 32.86201 46.56131 54. 67!65 ffil r.D'I HILITAAY 8.79358 a .82<14S t l.$$80 1 8.875$ 8 .WI27S 8.9W56 9 .82m 11. i'Y2:92 l 3 .S9390 fEll OOY Cl\'lU/..11 2.30312 UJl110 2 .21190 2 .256!0 2 2,050 2.22 .U9 2 .S9S8S 2 .90196 3 .3$20$ GO\' 8.0132! 1 8 7 ,954 19.4931)2 20.21931 2:\1.96287 2 UQ686 2 $.$ 0196 2 1 .9 SY .lJ.lD 106.72.550 109.59330 02.52370 llS .S!190 118, 49070 121.45770 137 .766-50 149.65280 1 68 .09700 199.45850 lOT PR!V Nf VAl. IJ) iOT GO\' TOT rmc VM. AOO!> 81.38448 16.68831 2 .6S280 89.88290 2 .62<&7 8 9 2 .44042 17.48043 1.;9669 95.10324 17. 8 7136 2.$6133 97 .69i63 1 8 .2SSOO 2 .53705 100.36910 1 8 .642:69 2.50$92 21.36647 2.10423 122.49540 23.25153 2.90590 1 38.1.6000 26. 37012 3.16662 1 64. 6 7 300 31.02 977 3.75&90 B 3 0

PAGE 129

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH TABi. 8 : SUPER SU'AA'Y TABL FM f'OR 0TtR RG1Q.<;S Of FLORIO!\ CD.'miU. FO;m:AST, CT/QE N REFR.eiCES I N PAAffi1ESS) J9S9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 201 0 2015 202$ 2(135 rcsr FCST i(ST F'CST FCST fCST FCST FCST FCST f'CST TOTM. WI.OYliEIIl (3) 8155.834 8293.354 SS74.61 2 8712.091 8546.098 9493.354 9836.160 103V.410 1 13)3.420 EI'.P t rJi US 5.338 5.359 5 .399 5.434 5.'169 5 50 1 5 645 5.726 5.891 6 .138 TOT PR11111F &.PI.VT(2) 6971.918 1085.146 1198.314 1320.131 143;.916 7547 .69Z E088.900 8313. 130 8112.984 9673.731 PR EHP fJF !JS 5 .419 5 .442 5 .466 5.4-!16 5 .525 5 .553 5 .671 5 .150 5 .916 6 .165 W (CriAII< 92S) (5) 3$5.323 354.32 9 363.49S 313.007 382.255 391.627 443.143 417.513 509.826 637.132 fa!SCIIDS or people. tO.LAA cooCE\)ts are i n 8 1LllCttS CKtJt?ro 92S Ul'lless 1ndicate
PAGE 130

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TAS!.E 832:: T;.sL FOR PR.IVATE HCf!FAAJ'I SECTOOS FM OTMER. RGlOliS Cf fLOfUOA COlfTROt fOR.ECAST. USI\Cftl0(8 .23) 1246.979 12i' 9 .955 1297 ,02(1 1312.969 132'8.615 !400.(134 l.tl&A!I6 1'75.634 1565.200 EXI> t'aJREG (3.24) 537.575 5<5.199 552.829 561.6 1 5 &59.443 577.015 m .596 634 .0!6 659.099 723.726 ( 8.25) .000 .000 .000 .coo .000 .000 .000 coo COSTS AAO PIUCE S I\LATIYE TO f.-t( U S.: AAIC .9S906 .95926 .95926 .95935 .95942 .95950 .95792 .954il .952% 95Cili FI(JCA: IN?UTS ( 9 .27) .98098 .9&11.4 .9"7910 .9782$ .Y7748 97611 .9702 S .96349 .9SSM .96482 L/.OCO (9.U) .99117 .9887 9 .;&5:1 6 .98402 .li81 9 l .98001 .96S91 .9532) .95124 fU(L (9,2)1) .&95!14 .a9504 .895!14 .89504 .S95C4 .89504 .89504 .89504 .1.95()1 O.PIT.41. 0 0 30) .91954 960'2 .98102-.9Si62 .98219 98215 9<1401 98:321 .9632 1 .988 ltiTRWJ) iNPI.fi'S(l0 31) .96501 ,964i7 .96<3S .964! 3 .9631 8 .96345 .96061 .95 726 .95927 OTHER VAAlAEUS : fa PROO HFG 0 0.32) .89655 .essss .8955S .8SS65 .S95S6 .8955S .89555 .6955S .895S6 .89SS6 Ra Pfl10 375.41170 44l!.35130 SElF SU?PLY ( 1 J .42) 401.01150 411.285!10 427 .68220 438.5619!1 "49.t59!0 459.61440 517.664 627.28890 745.1-412(1 EXP!:tUS (13 ,43) 117 OY.ICO H9.963::10 12'2.99280 126.01)72{) 128.94910 1 31.9'290 149.05760 161.1422 0 182.07700 Z lO.OlSiO INTAA .I!G TA!:J U3.411) .OMOO .00000 .00000 .coooo .cooco .OlOO .00000 .oocoo EXOGEnOUS AAt!KU 3 45) .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .0-:lllllO .00000 .00000 .oocoo MPIJI {1.0 4-S) 52.047110 537.24830 S50.67-1190 564.5751 0 578.C0710 591.55730 666. 717. 132-40 609.36589 955.15700 (:.RP{'i/.4. A/JOOJ){l4 47) 301.90090 310.03.980 318.34080 321 001)81) 335.4 1320 3'3. 9!700 :'88.89580 4 l 8 .664ZO 473.01.$30 556 .7148:1 w atuiO 'IS or ss : IIJ
PAGE 131

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS '!:r TA81.E 8 -33: EXPLO'tHKT TM!LE FOR OTHEtt IN FLOIUOA F'Cfif:O\Sl. CHI Of PEOPLE} 1999 2000 2001 2002 "'" 2004 201 0 2015 2025 2036 FCST FCST FCST f'CST FCSl r tsr FCST f'CST FCST fCST IWilFACT!JR 504.142 499.934 495.9S2 493.008 483.812 484.338 467 .3S7 4<15.296 39Z.639 350.18a AS A% CF U .S 2.733 2.730 2.72l 2.734 2 .735 2.738 2.173 2.&:17 2.879 2 .950 E:I.I!.Aa.t5 Z!.04S 290.18 1 Z86.567 233.1 08 m.4'l2 27S. 5Sl 261.211 245.189 208.760 184.463 IIOOCUWU.-s 2:10.097 209. 75 2 209.41 5 209.900 209.410 206.146 200.101 183.879 175.72-t 6467.835 6585 212 6702.393 6827.729 S9t'7 1 04 7063.,)54 7()21.544 7927.834 9390.345 9313.$44 ASH Cf U.S. S .&SS 5.886 5.903 5.928 5.952 5.914 6.066 6 .UO 6.224 6.435 l1UUN3 11. 111 11. 1 07 11.032 10.948 10.655 10.2:92 ..... 8 303 CGt.sTIUX:T!OII 486.2:51 492.250 499..429 505.350 511.815 S11.9C6 5<1.929 ssc.soa 598.657 682 J&.i "'"ISPt7 599.1168 695.623 11lS.S55 R!TAJl TR.l+..CE 1558.339 1571.489 158&.690 1000.347 1612.939 165<.692 1 656.934 1633.398 1721.007 TRAtE 365.232 3$5.221 355. 155 355.422 l$.107 354.431 3'7 23\ 322.493 310.672 S!ll'IICES 2882.3<5 2957.060 3052.240 31"2.041 3229.637 3316.769 3772.09J 4069.039 4554.155 5299.221 AGRUFM/FISH SVC l65.4ll3 169.837 173. 3 1 8 17&.91 4 1 80.4 1 5 183.568 205.018 220.60 8 248.1&1 289.037 TOTAL GO'IERXI1NT !C94A26 1144.957 1169.73? ll94.1C6 1218.456 1330.376 1392.161 1480.713 16<2.054 AS A t OF U.S. 5 .104 5 .172 5 2 3 6 5 .298 5 .358 5.41 5 5 .656 5 .784 5.!1)2 6.160 ST AAO LOCiot 00'/T 8 31.438 918.618 945.499 972.041 998.126 1024.229 U 3 Z .44$ 1191.871 1279.975 1435.999 FED. \'T. tiVJ. 110.158 108.944 107 .7:!0 106.554 1115.433 104. 309 IOS. m 103.E82 104 W fE D 00\'T. KILl. 9-2. 830 9Z.2% 91.72'1 91.142 90.S4't 89 917 92.960 94 .979 97.C65 10 1.783 FM>I EI'Jli.O'fHtKT 88.36'2 86.245 &1.138 82.069 79.949 74.079 70.448 63.712 57 .62)) AS A% OF U S 3.357 3.351 3.351 3.351 3.351 3 .357 3.357 3 .3$7 3.35 7 3 .357 TOTN.. EHPLQYI(Jlf 8156.831 8293.264 8429.576 8574.612 8712.031 8646. 098 9493.354 9835.760 10317.410 11373.420 AS At 1$ U S 5 .338 5.3$9 s.m 5.434 5,46, 5 .S01 ..... 5 .725 5.89 1 6. 138 POf\t.AiiOH 16G't5,530 16462.550 1683tt.7SO 17197.920 17563.350 17901.040 19774.800 21058.540 23332.260 2596'2.790 AS At 0' U S. 5.SOO 5.991 6.015 6 1 55 6.231 6.303 6.635 6 7'lO 6.975 7.261 8-33

PAGE 132

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL lAa 8 311: P(RS(Wl TAStE ftN OTHEI\ REGJOIIS OF FtCit,ICA OCt/TRCt FCRWST. UN 8lLUCltS Of OCll.AAS) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 2015 2{125 20J5 fCST FCST F(ST f(ST F(ST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST \CAGE NIJ $.1.!. OISS 93 .99520 202.69390 111.71760 221.42090 231 .39200 2..817.10 309.()6950 371 .67980 S36.ES210 8 1 2 .72210 I'RO?RIETCRS WCCtiE .00000 .0000!1 .oonao .c-oooo ,O(IQOO .0!1000 .ocooo .0000 0 .00000 .00000 WC!liE 51.61380 54.1 2214 56.18375 59.52311 62.39531 81..16044 99. 0ll30 144.58460 2 15.77850 OERJVATJO!I" CF PERSO'{At INX+E 8 Y PL:(E Of RSiteitE : TOT PROP JMC 243.2!1970 2.54.301&.) 265.83970 278.2()<50 290.91570 391).24991) 6$1.26670 AS A t f,f' U S 4.747 4.767 4 .785 4.810 4.834 4.858 ,949 4 989 5. 1 3? 5 .409 LESS SOC HISR 00 15.01006 15.70231 16.42109 1 7 .193CO 17.987116 18.82184 24.15$26 29.12381 42 .2(174 64.156 1 0 FlUS Rt.'"SIO AOJ .83231 .86269 .89<53 .92626 .95861 .99231 1.22<183 1. .CS283 1 98168 2 .6$&@ FLUS OlV. iHT .RENT 101.68620 107 13500 1! 2.753!0 118.6C680 1:!ll.70320 169.87900 ZDl. 74900 231.45910 4117,69590 fLUS TIWOSfE R PAY n .t6539 81.66102 85. :!87'8 9! .139CB 96.o6m 10! .119500 131.2$030 !5$.60193 2ll.98810 318.26340 PERSQ: .34845 .3S401 .35969 .36S<.53530 J20.!1l700 Sl6.9S..' ST NIJ l.O"..JL 00'/T 30.Z7388 32.111:$ 34.0200! 35. 0 !38$ 4 0 .28589 $J l2lZ4 65.38523 97.C59J3 149.62100 fED ; 5HS6 5 6251? 5 .73576 5.8518:1 5.97:!96 6.10255 7 .414.07 8 .71394 U .95013 1 6 .44746 FED OOYT MlliTAAY 2 .628<2 2.691 2 .75431 2 .81864 2.88<116 2 .95301 3.67213 4.3.9292 6 .19247 8 .79'31 '""' 2.62104 2 .64479 2 .66611 2.68699 2.105&5 2 12390 3 .0113& 3.44339 4 .33136 S .J$311 IF /o;.l 0 0'5 Jt(()lo( I!EJWED O>ER Hl((t(E. 8-34

PAGE 133

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS .. . . TASL S-35: 8 V Flh'M. 0 9(,litl TABlE FOR Olt!ER llmltliS OF F\..ORIOA CO.'HROI. FORECAST. 0: Cw.Jtal 1992 WITH VJ\LU E J.OCEO} 1199 2110& 21101 2002 200< 201 0 2015 202$ 2005 FCST FCST FC5T FCST FeST FCST FCST FCST FCST fCST TOTAl G?..P 3. EQJIP. 43.6042i. 44 .18961 4$ ;2$49 4 6 2 n'n 47.25751 4a.2naa 55.10439 59.27429 79.58946 CiH KET IVA ltlSC 1.03116 .99367 .92077 .8&14<1 .84)87 .57268 .5776$ .58763 .59732 GRP\'AGi!PFO .ODDCO .00000 .0000& .00000 .00001 .00000 .0!1000 .OOOO!J 00001 .00000 TOTAl. 00'1Eml!OO' 63 .45428 66.22034 66.9e682 68.74970 70.49633 72.26901 83. !-5791 911.51027 102,75'1 2 0 12'0.633SO Fro OOV 11iliTJ.RY l4.187C4 14.2748$ 14.31930 14.353 1 3 14.AC821 15.84770 1'1.00358 1 9 .02601 21.93160 FEO OOV CIVILIAn 5 .27270 S .2373S 5 .20117 5 .16498 5.12925 5 .09259 S .S4S1S 5 .9<959 7.67391 STATEJ\.C04. GOY 44 .0!)454 45,75257 47.51079 49.26643 51.0044{1 5 2 .75821 61.76SC6 67 .SS711 'iJ .109:10 91.23329 TOTit!. XPMTS 179.09)00 183.JSSS!l 187 19'2 .16$30 l96,Le390 226.69050 244.75510 276.59230 321.20260 O:P .00000 .00000 ocooo .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 EllOOOOICUS EICJ> 179 .09760 163.35550 187.7:810 1!2 .16530 196.48390 200.8733& 226.69050 244.75510 276.53230 .'JZ1.20260 TOTJ.L iHPCRTS 309.41060 316. 54193 323.75VD 3 J 8 .51490 345.75240 389.44950 4 1 7 .21390 <461 .53430 $ 7 .46!9 0 TOT GRP 8V VAL AOO 345.32300 354.32930 353.49520 31!2.25520 .191.62740 #3. l.C.2S9a0 318.34080 327 .oooao 335.4132\1 343.9<700 398.89560 4!8..65430 SS8. 7 1410 TOT WI' 3 9 .97573 40 6$68$ 41.78270 42. 693U 53.11381 60.28294 7 0 .92751 TOT FJAIC VAt AOCEO $ .29016 5 .23428 S l7856 5.U97J 5 .051'33 4 .99725 5.39272 5 .79489 6.51423 7 .48975 B -35

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APPEND/XC AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL VALUES OF REMI INPUT VARIABLES BY REGION This appendix includes the values of REM I input variables used i n the analysis for each of the six regions. These values are included in six tab l es, one for each region. Each table occupies two pages. c -1

PAGE 135

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE E CO N O M IC IMPACTS TAB L E c-1 REMI Inp ut for Tam pa Bay Variable Oescrlotlon In REMI Model Units 1997 1998 1999 2 000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 n ew roadS mils of 97$ 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 2 .32 2 .32 2.32 2 .32 0.00 0 00 new facilit i M mils of 97S 0.00 0.00 0 .00 1 .88 .51 60.97 78.64 87.25 11. 7 1 0.00 e ledric d istributio n JNstem mils of 97$ 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 4.97 4 97 2 .43 0 00 o oc telenhone ann a r atus mils o f 97S o.oo 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 5 .74 5 74 2 .87 0 00 0.001 electrical eouioment and sUDDties mils of 975 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 1. 1. 0.66 0.00 0 0 m i lsof97S 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 0 insurance cani ers m i lsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 0 22 0 .22 0 22 0 11 0.00 real estate m ilsof97S 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 9 .39 9 .39 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 services m ilsof97 S 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0 .88 0 .88 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 e n aineerina and architecture mllsof97$ 3 .53 4 .20 6.18 5 .85 3 20 5 19 6.18 6.85 6 .63 0.00 railwav-tran;;Qrtation mils of97S 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 11.60 1 1.82 2Q.43 t ites tubes and oarts milsof97$ 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 : 10.1 2 10 13 I 10.29 aut o reOOTr miis of97$ 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .50 I 10 .56 111. 24 auto ins urance m i ls o f 97$ 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 1 1 I 10.13 I 10. 28 state & local aovernment mils of97S 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 (0 .37 I <0.41 I 10.91 variables In real or nomin a l dollars real =1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I change for petroleum mils of 975 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 roducts 0.00 0 .00 0.00 (0.56) (0.83) (1.39) r ela t ive orodu ctivitv adiustmen t 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 0 0 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 .01 decreas e I n nur chasiM rvrwer mil S o f97S 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 5 68 5.68 5 .88 5 .68 5 .68 5 .6a m i nration a menrtv factor %of RWR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 004 0 004 0 00 Variable Oescriotion i n REMI Model Unit s 2007 2008 200 9 20 1 0 2011 2012 20 1 3 2014 20 1 5 201 6 ne w r oads m itsof97$ 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 00 new nonbuUdina facilities mflsof97S 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 e leetri c milsof97 $ 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 te-le----;;-ho n e mils of97S 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 electrical Aii'Uinment and s unnli&S mii:S of 97$ 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 00 raiftoad m iT:s o f 97$ 4 12 3.09 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 insurance carrier$ mils of97S 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 00 real estate mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0 00 0 00 o .oo 0.00 0 00 services mils o f97S 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 and architecture m il s of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 railwav tf ansoortati o n mils of97$ 20. 76 20 98 21. 21 2 1 .43 21.54 2 1 .54 2 1 .85 2 1.76 2 1.87 21.98 tires, tu b es mils of97S I 10.31 I 10.33 I 1 0.34 I 1 0.35 0.36 0.37 I 10.38 0 .39 0.39 0 .40 auto reoa i r mils of97S 1 .34 1 4 1 I 11.47 1.53 I 1 1.56 1 .60 1 11.83 I 11. 67 1.71 1 74 auto insut ance mils of 97S 0 30) 0.31 I 1 0 .33 0 .34 I 10.35 I co.3 6 I co.36 I 10.37: I c o .38 I co.ag hinhwa\N;., sta t e & l oca l novernment mils of97$ 0 98 1.03 I ".or I (1. 12 I 11.1 4 I 11.11 I 11. 19 I 11.22 1 11.2 5 I 1 1 28 variables i n real or nominal CIOiiars real 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 dem a n d c h a nge for petroleu m i .vod ud:s mils of97$ (1. 50) (1.57 ) ( 1 .64) ( 1 71) (1. 74) (1.78) (1. 82) (1.86 ) (1.90) (1.95) relative otOductNTtV adiustment 0 01 O.ot 0.01 0 .01 0 0 1 0 .01 0.01 0 .01 0 01 0 .01 de crease mils of97$ 5 68 5 68 5 68 5.68 5.68 5 68 5 68 5 68 5.68 5 68 mioration a me nitv factor %of RWR 0.009 0 009 0.009 0.010 0 0 1 0 0.0 1 0 0 010 0.010 0 010 0 0 1 0 C2

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS :... : ..... '"':,. OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL TABLE C-1 R E M I I n p ut Varia b l es for T a mpa Bay (continued) var iabte Descrlpt;on I n R.EMl Model Unils 2017 201 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 newroacss mllsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 00 o .oo o .oo 0.00 0 .00 nsw non-bUildina facilities mitsof9?S o.oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e l eetrlc dlstrib uti n o svstem m isof97$ 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 o.oo 0 .00 aooarat u s milsof97$ 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 e leckical eQuipment an d supplies milsof97$ 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 railroad eQuipmen t mils: o f91S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oo o .oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 insurance carriers mils of 97$ 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 real e$1ate mils ot97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 I legal services mi l s ol97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 engineoring and archite-cture mllsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 railwav transoortation milso f97$ 24.96 25.07 25.18 25.29 25.40 25.62 25.73 25.84 25.95 26.07 tires, tubes and oarts mils o f 97$ 0.41 I 10.42 0 .4 3 0.44 0.44 0 .45 0 46 0.48 0.49 0.50 a u t o reQai r mils of97S I 1 1 .79 I 11.83 I 11.871 I 11.91 I 11.92 I 11.97 I 12.01 (2 .06 I 12.11 I 12.16 auto insurance mils ol97$ I !0. 4 0 I !0.41 I 10.42 I 10.43 I 10.43 I 10.44 I 10.45 I 10.46 I 0.47 I 10 .48 hiohwavs. state & local aovemment mils o f97S I 11.31 I 1 1.34 I 11.371 I tt .40 1.40 I tt .44 I 1 1 .47 I 11.51 111.54 I 11.58 va.riables i n real or nominal dollars real =1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 demand Change for petroteum IDroducts mils of97$ (2 .00) (2 .05) (2 .09 ) (2.13) (2. 1 4) (2.19 ) (2.25) (2.30) (2.36) (2.41) relative oroductivitv adiustment 0.01 0.01 O.ol 0.0 1 O.ol 0.01 0.01 O.Dl 0 0 1 0.01 decrease i n pun::l\asiog power mils of97S 5.68 5.68 5.68 5.68 5 .68 5.68 5.68 5.68 5.68 5 6 I miqration amcnay factor %ofRWR 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0 .0 1 0 0 .010 0 01 Variable Description in REMI Model Units 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 new roads m llsol97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 o .oo 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 new facilities m ilsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 electric: distributing system mil$ of97$ o .oo o .oo 0.00 0 .00 o .oo 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 teleohon& aooaratus m ilsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 e lectrical eauiDment and $UDOUes milsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ra a road equi p ment mllsol97$ 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 o.oo i nsurance carriers milsof97$ 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 real estate mils o l 97$ 0.00 o.oo 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 l leoal services mils of97$ 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 e noineerin a and archltecture mils of97S 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 railway transportation mils of 97$ 26.29 26.40 26.51 26.62 26.64 26.95 27.06 27.06 27.06 tires, tubes an d parts mils ot97S I 10.5 1 I 10.52 I 10.53 0 .54 I 10.ss 0.56 I 10 .57 0 .5 7 0.571 auto reoa!r mils of97S I <2.22) I <2.25 I 12.3 0 I 12.36 I !2.41 I t2.43 I 12.49 I 12.49 I <2.49 auto m&uranoe mils o f97 $ I 10.4 9 I 1o.so i 10.51 I 10.53 I to.5 4 I 10.54 10.55 I to.5s I 10.551 highways, stale & local government milsof97$ I 11.62 1.64 1.68 1.72 I 11.76 I 11.78 i 11.82 I 11.s2 I 11.82 variables in real or nominal doDars real-=1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 demand c hange fw petroleum I Products mi1so197$ (2A7) ( 2.51) (2 .5 7) (2 63) (2 69) (2.71) (2 .78) (2.78) (2.78 ) relative productivity adjustment 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 1 0 .01 0.01 0.01 0.01 decrease i n o urchas:lna oower mil s o f 97$ 5 .6 8 5 .68 5.68 5.68 5.68 5.68 5.68 6.68 5.68 m ioralion amenitv factor %oiRWR 0.010 0 .010 0.010 0.0 1 0 0.0 1 0 0.010 0 .0 1 0 0.010 0.010 c -3

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TAStE C-2. REMIInput Va ri a bles for E a st Centra l Vatlable Description In REM I Mo
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. $ ...... AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TABLE C-2. REM! Input Vari ableS for East Centra l (continued) var iable Descrlt:>tlon I n REMI M o de l U n its 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 new roads mils of 97$ 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 new non-b u ildina faefl!ties oi97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 electric d istribu t i ng sy&tem mi ls of 97$ 0.00 O.OD 0 .00 0.00 0.00 O .OD 0.00 0 .00 o.oo 0 .00 telephone aooaratus mils oi97S 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 electrical eauioment and suoolies mi ls of 97$ 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 O .OD 0 .00 rai lroa d equipmant mi ls of97$ 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 insuranoe carriers m ils of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 o.oo 0 .00 real estate milS: of97$ 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 l leo a l seNices mi ls oi97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 enaineerinq and architecture mi l s of 97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 ra il wav tra ns oortatlon mi ls of97$ 52.33 52.66 52.88 53.10 53.3 2 53.65 53.87 54.09 54.42 54.65 tires tu bes and Dart$ mi ls of97$ 1.41 I 11.44 1 .47 I 1 1.50 I !1.51 I 11.55 1.58 I t1.62 I !1.66 I t l.70 auto r $pair m ils of97$ I (I.BQI I n.s3 I 11.87 I t l .91 I tt.92 I !1.97 I 12.01 I 1 2.o6 I 12.11 I <2.16 auto insurance mils ol97$ I coAo I co.41 I co.42 I to.4s I 10.43 I co.44 I
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TABLE C-3 REMIInput Va tiables for Treasure Coast variable Description i n REMI Model U nits 1 9 97 19 98 new roads mils of97S 0 .00 0 00 new non-buildlng_facillties mils of97S 0 00 0 00 eiectrie dislributin!) svs-tem mils of97 S 0.00 0.00 telephone apparat us mil s of97$ o.oo 0 00 ctecuical &auioment and suooli es mils of97$ 0.00 0 00 ra ilroad eauiomen t m ilsof97$ 0.00 0.00 insurance carriers m llsof97S 0.00 0 .00 r eal estate m ilsof97$ 0.00 0 .00 leqal services m ilsof97$ 0.00 0.00 eng_in e erina and architecture milsof97$ 20.12 23.48 railway transDOrtation mi lsof97$ 0.00 0.00 tires, tubes and oarts m ilsof97$ 0 .00 0 .00 auto reoair milsof97$ 0.00 0.00 a uto i nsuran ce mils of 97$ 0.00 0 .00 state & l ocal govern ment m ils of97S 0.00 0.00 variables i n real or nominal dolla rs realt 1 1 oemand ch.3nge for petroleum mils of 97S 0.00 0 .00 prOduCl$ ,.IalNe oroductiVItv adlustme n t 0.00 0.00 decrease i n o urchas i n Q power mils of 97S 0.00 0 .00 lmiaration a mc nitv factor %ofRWR 0.000 0.000 Va .rlabl e Deserlption In RE MI MOdeJ Unit$ 2007 2008 new road s mils of 97S 0 .00 0 00 new non-buildlna facilities mils of97$ 0 .00 0.00 electric d iSiributin a svstem mils o f 97$ 0.00 0 00 telephone appatatus mils o f97S 0.00 0.00 electrical eQuipment and supplies mils of97$ 0 .00 0.00 railroad equiPment mils of97$ o.oo 0 00 insuranoe carriers mllsof 97$ 0.00 0 00 r ea l estate mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 legal seiVIces mils of97$ 0.00 0 .00 enQi:neerinq a n d a rchitectur e milsof97$ 0.00 0 00 railwav tr a nsoortalion m ilsof97$ 40 .60 .41.04 t ires, tubes and parts milsof97S ( 1.39 1.48 auto repair milsof97$ (6 .02 6.32 auto insuranoe milsof97$ 1 .34 1 4 1 hiohwavs state & loca l aovem m ent milsof97$ 4.40 I <4.6 2 variables i n re a l or nomina l dollars real =1 1 1 de:mand Change for petrOleum mils of 97 $ (6.71) (7.05) roducts relative oroductivi:tv acf ustmen t 0.07 0 08 decrease I n purchasing power mils o f 97$ 25.88 25.88 miqration amenftv factOt %ofRWR 0 049 0.050 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 1 999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200< 2005 20061 0.00 9.66 9 66 13.51 5 .80 0.00 0.00 0.0 10.73 14 5.06 65.04 58.41 09.64 44.24 0 .00 0.0 0.00 0.00 30.66 30. 66 15.32 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 40.71 40.71 20.36 0 .0 0 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 13.32 13.32 6 66 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 15.80 21.06 15.80 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 1 1 2 1.12 1.12 1 .12 1 12 0.63 0 00 0 .00 32.87 49 .30 82. 1 9 0 00 o .oo 0 .00 0 00 0 00 2.95 4.44 7.39 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 35. 03 43 .06 46.02 46 .31 31.41 3.11 0 .0 0 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 22.64 23.01 39.96 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 I (0 .5 2 (0.58 (1.28 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 I (2.26 (2 .52 (5 .5 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 I
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:' AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TABL E C REM I Input Variables for Treaaura Coast (continued} VariabSe Description i n REMI Model Units 20 17 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 new roads mils ot97S 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 new non-buildi na fa-cilities. mils of97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 e lectric cfi&ttibulina svstem mils of 97$ 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 o .oo 0 .00 0.00 telephone apparatus mils of 975 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 e lectrical eQuipmen t and supplies mils of97S 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 railroad eauloment mils o f 97S 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 i nsurance carriers mils of97S 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 o .oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 real estate mils o f97S 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0.00 legal services mil s oi97S 0.00 o .oo 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 enQineerlnq a n d architecture mils oi97S 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 rai'twa_y transportation mil s of97S 48 79 49.01 49.24 49A7 49.70 4 9.9 4 5(). 1 9 5().4 4 50.69 50.96 tires t u bes and parts mils oi97S I ( 1 .86 (1.90 I (1.94 ( 1.98 I (1.99 (2 .03 I (2.08 (2 13 I (2. 1 8 I !2.24 auto repair mils of 97$ I 18.04 (8.22 I c8.4 0 (8 .5 8 I 18.61 (8.82 I 19.03 (9.25 I 19.4 7 9.70 auto insurance mil s of 97$ I 1 1 79 1.83 I 11.87 1.91 I 11.92 1.96 I 12.01 C2.08 I C2.11 I 1 2.16 hiQhwavs $tate & loeal aovemmcnt mil S Of97S I 15.88 6.0 1 I 16.14 6.27) I 1 6.29 6.44 I 16.60 6.76l I 16.92 I 1 7 .09 variables m real o r nominal dollars reaJ =1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 deman d change for petroieum milsof97S (8.97) (9. 1 7) (9 .3 7) (9 57) products (9 60) (9 .8 4) 10.07) 10 .32) 10 .5e) 10.S 2) relative productivit y adjustmen t 0.08 0 08 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.08 0 06 0. 08 0.08 0.08 decrease i n purthssinQ pawer mils of97S 25 .88 25.88 25.88 25.88 25.88 25 .88 25 .88 25 .88 25.88 25.88 migration a m enitv factor %ofRWR 0 044 0.043 0.042 0.04 1 0 040 0 039 0.038 0.038 0.037 0.038 Variabl e Oescriotion i n REMI ModeJ Units 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 new roads mils of97$ 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 new facilities mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e)eclrlc d istributimr svstem mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0.00 telephone apparatus m ilsof97$ 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 eJectrlcal equipment and supplies m ils ol97$ 0 00 o .oo 0 00 o .oo o .oo 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 railrosd eauipment milsof97$ 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 Insu r ance carriers m ils of97$ 0.00 o .oo 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 real estat e miisof97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 legal services miJs.of97$ o .oo 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e nRineerinR. and architecture m ilsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 rallwav transoortatton milsol97$ 5 1 .21 51. 48 51.76 52.05 52.34 52.63 52.93 52.93 52.93 tubes and oarts mils of 97$ 2.29 2 .32 2 .38 I 12.44 2.49 I 12.5 1 2.58 I C2.58 (2.58 a uto reoatr mils of 97$ 9 .93 10.07 10.32 10.56 10.82 10.90 1 1 17l 1 1.17l 1 1 .17 auto insurance mils o f 97$ (2.2 1 1 (2.24 IJ2 .35 L(2.43 I C2.49 (2A9 hiRhways. state & local Qovemment mils of97S (7.26 I (7.36 (7.54 I 17.12 ( 7.91 I (7.97l (8.16 (8.161 (8 16 variables i n real or nominal dollars real =1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 demand Cf\anga fOr petroseum I P roducts mus ol97$ 11.08) 11.2 4) 11.51) 11. 78) 12.07) 12 1 6) 12 .46) 1 2 46) 12.46) relative oroductlvitv ad ustment 0.08 0 08 0 08 0.08 0 08 0 08 0.08 0 .08 0 .08 decrease i n ourctuasino oower mllsol97$ 25.88 25.88 25.88 25.88 25 .88 25.88 25.88 25.88 25.88 migration amenity factor %ofRWR 0.035 0.034 0.033 0 033 0.032 0.031 0.030 0.029 0.028 C-7

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TABLE C-4 R E M I Input Variables for Broward County VariabJe Oescriotion i n REMI Model U n b 1997 1998 new roads mils of 97$ 0.00 0 00 new n o n buikl ing facilities mils of97$ 0 .00 0.00 tlect.fic d iWibutlnq svs.tem mils of97$ 0 .0 0 0 00 teleo hone aooaratus Mil$ of 97$ o.oo o oo electrical eauioment a n d s u ooies crils of 97$ 0 .00 0 00 r a Uroad equloment milsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 insurance carriers mib of97$ 0 .00 0.00 real es t ate milsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 5eoal services mib of97$ 0.00 0 00 engineering and architecture mils of97S 5.64 6 58 raitwav transPOrtati o n 1Ms o f 97$ 0 .00 0.00 tires. tubes a n d oarts mis o f 97S 0.00 0 00 aut o reoair mis o f 97$ 0 .00 0.00 auto insurance m ils of97$ 0 .00 0.00 state & local governmen t mils of 97$ 0 .00 0.00 variables i n real ot n o minal dollars real=1 1 1 demand change for petroleum m ils o f 97S 0.00 0 00 lorodudS relativ e produc!Nitv adiu5tment 0 .00 0.00 decrease In ourchasina oower m l b of97$ 0.00 0 00 migration amenity factor %ofRWR 0.000 0.000 Variable Description in REM! Mode l U nits 2007 2008 new roads miis of97$ 0.00 0 00 new non-building_ facilities m ils o f 97S 0 .00 0.00 e lectric di.Stributlng system m l b of97$ 0 .00 0.00 telephon e apparatus mits o t 97S 0 .00 0 00 e lec:ttical eauloment afld suPOiles m lts of97S 0 .00 0 00 r a i ltoad eau ioment mits of97$ 0 .00 0.00 insurance carriers mils o f 97$ 0 .00 0.00 r eal estate m ils of 97S 0.00 0 00 k!q al servi ces mils o f 97$ 0 .00 0.00 enaineetina and arChitecture mits of 97$ 0 .00 0.00 rait.Yay transoortat ion m ils o f 97S 1 1 .3 9 11.51 tites. tubes and pam mas of 97$ I (0.39 (0 41 aut o repa ir mis o t 97$ (1.69 ( 1 77 auto insurance mils o f 9 7 $ (0 .38 (0 39 hiahwavs. stat e & local aove mment ,.,. of 97$ 1 .23 1.29 variab)es in real or nomi n a l dollars real =1 1 1 demand Change for pettoleum milsof97S {1.88) (1. 98) roducts relative productivity adjustment 0 02 0 .02 decr ease i n purchas.lng power mllsof97S 7 33 7.33 miqrstion ame n ity factor %ofRWR 0 013 0.013 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIOA HIGH SPEED RAIL 1999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.00 2.70 2 70 3 80 1.63 0 00 0.00 0 00 3 0 1 40 .67 n.16 76.75 66.17 1 2.40 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 8.59 8 59 4 .30 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 .00 1 1.42 11A2 5.70 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 3 74 3.74 1 .86 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 4 .43 5 .91 4.43 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.32 0 32 0.32 0 32 0 17 0 00 0.00 9 22 13.83 23.05 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0 83 1 .25 2 08 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 9 .82 12.08 12.91 12 99 8.81 0.88 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 6.34 6.45 11 .21 0.0 0 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0.15ll 0 .16 I !0. 36 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .63 0.70 I !1 56 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.14 0 .16 I r0 35 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 (0.46 { 0.52 I 1 .14 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 {0.71) {0.79) {1. 74) 0 .0 0 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 o.oo 0 .00 7.33 7 33 7.33 7 33 7 33 7 33 0.000 0 000 0 000 0.000 0.000 0 006 0 007 0 013 2009 2010 2011 2012 201 3 2014 2015 2016 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 o oo o .oo 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 o .oo 0 .00 0 00 t1 .60 1 1 .71 11. 76 11.82 11.88 1 1.93 11.99 12 05 {0. 43 I (0.44 (0.45 I (0 .46 I ( 0.47 (0 48 {0. 4 9 I 10. 5 1 (1.84 I 1.9 2 (1.96 I 12.01 I !2.05 {2.10 {2.14 I (2 .19 (0 .41 I co.43 (0 .44 (0.45 I co.46 (0 .47 (0.48 I coAs 1.35 I 11.40 1 .44 1 4 7 I !1.5 0 1 53 1 .57 I 11. 60 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (2.06) {2.14 ) {2. 19) (2. 24) { 2.29) {2.34) (2 39) {2. 44 0 02 0 02 0 02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0 02 0 .02 7 33 7 .33 7 .33 7 33 7.33 7.33 7.33 7 33 0 013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0 0 12 0.012 0.0 12 0.0 12 C-8

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AN ANAL OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA REM I I npu t Variab les for Btoward County (cont in ued) Variable Oescriot ion in REMI Model new roads new non-bui!dii"'Q facilities e lectric d istributina svstem tel eoholl$ aooaratus electrical equipment and railroad equ i pment insurance canier5 real estate leoal seMoes eng i neering and architecture railwaY traJlSI)ortatlon tlreos, tubes and oarts auto rep_air a uto Insurance ihiahwavs, state & l ocal governme n t var i abl es in real or nomina l dollars d e m a n d chang
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TABLE C.5 REM I Input for Dade County Variab l e De scription i n REMI Model U n its 1997 1998 t'tttiW f03d$ mils of97S 0 .00 o.oo new n o n4:1uildino faciliti es milsof97$ 0.00 0 .00 electric d istri>uting system m ils of97$ 0 .00 o .oo t e le p hone a p paratus milsof97$ 0.00 0.00 *Clrlcal eauioment and supplies mils of97$ 0 .00 0 .00 m;!sof97$ 0.00 0.00 lnsura nee carriers mits of97$ 0 .00 0 .00 rea l e s tate m i l$ of97$ 0 .00 0.00 leoal services mils o197S 0 .00 0.00 eooineelln a a n d a rc h rted u re m it& of97$ 3 .38 3.92 llblway transp ortation mils of97$ 0 .00 0.00 t ires. t u bes a n d parts m i l$ of97$ 0.00 0.00 auto reoair m ils of97$ 0.00 0 .00 auto i nsurance m ils o f97$ 0 .00 0.00 highways, state & local government mils of97 S 0.00 0 .00 variabks in r ea l or nomina l dollars real =1 1 1 demand change for petrol e u m mils of97S 0 .00 0.00 products relative J)roductlvlty adjustment 0 .00 0 .00 dectease i n ourchasinq DOWet mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 mlaration amenilv fact o r %ofRWR 0 .000 0 .000 Variable Descriot i o n in REM Mode l Units 2007 2008 new roads mils of97S 0.00 o .co new non-b uiJdi na fac i lities mils of97S 0 .00 0 .00 electric distrlbutlna svstem mils of97S 0.00 0 .00 aooarat u s mils o f 97S 0 .00 0.00 electrical eQuipment and supplies mils of 97S 0.00 0 .00 rail road equ ipment mils o f97S 0 .00 0 .00 insurance carriers mils of97S 0.00 0 .00 r e al es t a t e mils of97S 0 .00 0 .00 l e gal services mils of97S 0.00 o.oo e ns;ineerina a n d arch i tect u re mils of97S c .oo 0.00 raitHav transoortation mils of97S 6.78 6.85 tires. t u bes and oarts mils of97$ 0 .2 3 I !C. 2 4 auto repai r mils o f 97S (1.01 I ( 1.06 auto i nsur a n ce mils of97$ (0 .22 I ro .24 hiqhwavs state & l ocal government mils o f 97$ (0.74 I 10.11 v ariables i n real o r nomina l d o llars rea l = 1 1 1 d emand change for pet roleu m mils o f 97S (1. 12) (1-18) tOducts relative orodudivitv ad' ustmen t 0.0 1 0.0 1 decrease i n purchasing power mitsof97S 4.40 4.40 miQration amenity f actor %ofRWR 0 004 0 .004 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 1999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.00 1.61 1 61 2 .25 0 .97 0 .00 0 .00 0 0 1 .80 24.24 58.31 60.44 59.12 7 .39 0 .00 o.oc 0.00 0.00 5 1 3 5.13 2 .56 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 6 81 6 8 1 3 .40 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 2.23 2 .23 1.11 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 2 .64 3 .52 2 .64 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 18 0 .18 0.1 8 0 .18 0 .18 0.10 0 .00 0 .00 5 .49 8 .24 13.740 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .49 0 .74 1 .240 .00 0.00 0 .00 5 .86 7 .20 7 .69 7.7 5 5 .25 0 .51 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 3 .79 3.84 6.68 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 I ro.os (0.10 0 .21 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .38 0.42 0.93 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.08 0 .09 I 10.21 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 I 10.28 (0 .31 I co.6a 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 (0.42 ) (0.47) (1.04 ) 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.0 1 0 .00 0.00 4 4 0 4.40 4 .40 4. 4 0 4 .40 4.40 0 .000 0.000 0 .000 0.000 0 .000 0 .002 0 .002 0 .004 2009 201 0 2 011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 c .oo 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 6 .92 6 .98 7.0 1 7.05 7 .08 7.10 7 .15 7 18 0.25 0 .26 I !0.271 0 .2 8 0 .28 0.29 0 .30 0 .30 I (1. 10 (1.15 I (1.17J (1.20 (1.22 L
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AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS '"'' OF FLORIDA T ABLE c .. s. REMII n put Variables for Dackl County (co n tinued) Variab l e De s criDtion in REM I Model Unit$ 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202 new roads mils of97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o .oo 0.0( new non-build log_ facllttles mils of97$ 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.0( efedrie system mils of 97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0( telephone apparatus mi ls of97S 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0.00 0.0 electrica l eauloment a n d suoolies mils o f97S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 o .O< railroad eau loment mi ts of97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0 0( ins uranoa carriers mils of97$ 0.00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0.0( reaJ estate mibof97$ 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0 .0 0 0 .00 0.00 0.00 serv i ces milsof97$ 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 engineering and archite cture mllsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 raitHay transportation milsof97$ 8 16 8 .19 8 23 8 27 8 .31 8.35 8.39 8.43 8 .4S 8.51 tires. tubes and p a rt s ml lsof97$ 0.31 0.32 I co.s2 II (0.33 0.33 0 .34 I co.ss I co.36 0.37 11 0.37 auto r eoa i r milsof97$ 1.35ll 1.3 I 11. 1.43 II1A4 1 .47 1.51 1.5S 1 .58 1.62 auto i n surance m i lsof97$ 0 .30 0 .31 0.31 0 .32 0 .32 0.33 110.34 0.34 0.3 llo. 3e hi s stale & k>cal aove m ment mllsof97$ 0 98 1.00 1 03 1.05 1 .05 1.08 I 11.1 0 1 .13 111.16 I 11.19 variables In real or nom inal doll ars real =1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 demand change fot petro u m [products mllsof97$ (1. 50) (1. 53) ( 1 57) ( 1 60) (1. 61) (1.64 ) ) (1.72) (1.68 (1. 77) (1.81) rela tive productivity adjustment 0.0 1 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 .01 0.01 0 .01 decrease i n purdtasinq power mils o f97S 4 .40 4 .4 0 4 40 4 .40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4 .40 4.40 mlaratio n ame n itY fa cto r %ofRWR 0 004 0.004 0.004 0 004 0.004 0.003 0 003 0 003 0.003 0 003 V a riab le Description in REMI Mod&l U n its 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 new roads mils of97S 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 new non--bulld lnq facilities mirs o f97S 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 electric distributina svstam mils of97$ 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 telephon aooaratus mils o f 97$ 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e laetrieal equ i pment and $UI);:IIieS m ils of97$ 0 00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0 0.00 0.00 rai lroad eauiDmen t milsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 i nsuraneo eartiers milsof 97$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 real estate mi lsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 l e"a l seNioeS mi lsof97$ 0.00 0.00 0 00 0 .0 0 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 enai neerina a n d architect u r e m ilsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0.00 0 00 o.oo rsitwav trans o ortat i on m llsof97S 8.56 8 60 8 65 8 .69 8 75 8.80 8.84 8 .84 8.84 t!res tubes and parts mils of97S 0.36 110 .39 0 40 0.41 0.42 I 10.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 auto reJ)alr mils of 975 1.66 1 1 1 .6 8 1 .73 111. 77' 1 8 1 1 11.82 1.87 1 87 1 .87 auto i ns urance m i ls of97S I 10.37 (0.38 I 10.38 I co.39 I co.4o (0A1 l/0. 42 I (0A2 I t0.42 hlahwavs state & loca l aovemment mils of97$ I n .2 1 1 1 .23 I 1 1 .26 I 11.29 I 11.s2 I (1.33 I n.36 [ /1.36 I 1 1.36 variables i n real o r n om i nal dolla rs real = 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 dema nd change for petroleum mi15of97$ (1.85) (1.88) (1. 92) (1.97) ( 2.02) (2.03) (2.08) (2 08) (2.03) products relative orodu ctivitv a d i u $ln'le n t 0.01 0.01 O.D1 0 .01 0.01 0 .01 0.01 0 01 0.01 decrease i n purchas i ng power m ilsof97$ 4 .40 4 .40 4 .40 4.40 4 .40 4.40 4 40 4AO 4.40 miRJation amenity f actor %ofRWR 0 003 0.003 0.003 0 003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 c -11

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TABLE c-6. REM! Input Variables for Other Regions of Florida Variab l e Description i n REMI Model Unrts 1997 1998 new roadS mils of97$ 0 00 0.00 new nonbuilding_facifities mi l s of97$ 0 .00 0.00 e lectric di$1tlbutlng system mils of 97$ 0.00 0.00 tele p h one apparatu s mi lsof97$ 0.00 0.00 electrical eauipment and SUPPli es milsof97S 0 00 0 00 railroad eaui o me n t m ilsof97$ 0 .00 0.00 insurance carriers milsof97S 0.00 0 00 real estate mllsof97$ 0.00 0 00 serv i ces misof97$ 0 00 0 .00 enaineerin a and a tchHecture milsof97$ 3 74 4.38 railway transportation milsof97S 0 00 0 00 tires. tubes and pans m isof97$ 0.00 0 00 auto r&oair mitsof97$ 0 00 0.00 auto in$utanoe milsof97$ 0 00 0 00 highways, state & locaJ_g_ovemment mils of97$ 0 00 0.00 variableS i n real or nominal dollars real 1 1 1 demand change f o r petroleum l11toment mils of97$ 4 35 3.26 insur ance carriers mils of97$ 0 .00 0 .00 real estate mils o f97S 0.00 0.00 lleoal services mil s of97S 0 .00 0.00 enQineerinq a n d architecture mils of97S 0 .00 0 .00 raimav tran.soortation mils of97S 21.94 22.18 tires tubes and Darts milsof97S I 10. 33 0.34 auto repair mils of97$ (1.42 (1.49 auto insurance mils of97$ (0 32 (0.33 hfahwavs state & loeal qovemment m ilsof97$ 1.04 1.09 vatiables i n real or nominal dollars real = 1 I 1 deman d cha nge for petrol eum IDtoducts mifsof97 $ (1.58) (1.66) relative oroductivitv ad'ustment 0.01 0.01 decrease i n purd'\u tng powet mitsof97$ 5 80 5 .80 amenity factor %ofRWR 0 004 0 004 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 .00 0.00 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 0.00 0.00 0 .00 2.00 46.93 55.39 69.72 70.78 12.37 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 5.21 5 .21 2.60 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 6 03 6 .03 3.02 0.00 0 00 0.00 0 00 0 00 1 .47 1.47 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 3.26 0 .00 0 . 21 0.21 0 .21 0 .2 1 0 .2 1 0.12 o.oo 0.00 9.86 9.86 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 89 0 89 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 6.53 6 .17 3 40 5.43 6 .57 7.24 7 0 1 0.00 0 .00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .00 12.23 12.43 21.60 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0 .12 I co.14 I co.3o 0 .00 0.00 o oo 0 00 0.00 0 .53 I 10. 59 1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.12 110.1 3 0 .2 9 0 00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0 00 (0 39 I co.43 I co.96 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 (0.59) (0 66 ) (1. 46 ) 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 01 0 00 0 .00 5 .80 5.80 5 80 5 .80 5.80 5.8 0 000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0 002 0.004 2009 201 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 00 0 .00 0.18 0.43 0.67 0 .70 0 79 1.05 0.00 0.00 4.50 10.38 1 6 .24 16. 75 19 21 25.3 0.00 0 .00 0.37 0 86 1.34 1 .38 1.57 2.081 0 .00 0.00 0 .49 1.13 1.78 1.83 2 tO 2.76 0.00 0 .00 0.16 0 37 0.58 0.60 0.68 0 90 0 00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 o oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0 .03 0 .06 0 .11 0.11 0.13 0.1 0 00 0 .00 0 79 1.83 2 86 2 .9 5 3.38 0.00 0 .00 0 .07 0.16 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.40 0 00 0 .00 1 .2 0 2.76 4.32 4 .46 5.11 6 .7 22.37 22 56 22 .67 22 78 22 .86 22.99 23.11 23.22 I 10. 36 I 10.37 0.38 I 1 0.39 0.40 0.41 I 10.42 I 10.42 I 11.ss I !1.61 (1.65 I (1.69 i ( 1 72 ( 1.76 I ( 1 80 I ct.94 I 10. 35 I !0.36 (0 37) I 10. 38 10.38 (0.39 I !0.40 I co.41 I 1t.13 I 11.18 1 .21 I 11.23 1 26 ( 1.29 I 11.32 I 1 35l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (1. 73 ) (1. 80) (1.94) (1. 88) (1.92) (1.96 ) (2.01) (2 05) 0 .0 1 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 .01 5 .80 5 60 5 80 5 80 5.80 5 80 5 .80 5 80 0 004 0 004 0 004 0.004 0 004 0.004 0 .0 03 0.00 c -12

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA .. : . . TABLE C-6. REMIInput Variables for Other Regions of F lorida (continued) I ..... ilrlreaTO< change for petroleum I n RFM I MO<'Iol hiM< lu""< nrl .... ; n Change for petrokJum in u nit& 201 8 1 20191 20201 2021 2022 1 2023 1 20241 2025 1 20261 mllsof97S 1., 1 551 1811 2 .051 2 .31 2.5< 2.811 3.471 3.701 4.021 mllsof97S 31391 37.491 5 5 .791 8 1 .91 68.051 97 .261 m;lsof97$ 2 .58 3 08 3.58 4. 08 4.58 5.08 1 5.51 6.81 7.991 mllof97$ 3.42 4.09 4 .75 5.42 6 .09 6.75 7.4< 9J7f 10.611 mils of97S 1 .12 1.34 1.55 1.78 1.99 2.21 2.4' :l981 3.20 1 3.4 1 mllso< o .o o oool oool oool ooo o.oo o oo o.ool o .ool o.oc mils of 97$ 0.2 1 0.251 0.29 0.33 0.37 0 .4 2 0.46 0.561 musof97 6 .60 1 7 .68 l!1!i 9 .8 3 1 11.98 1 1 4.731 I 17.131 m llso f 97 0 .50 lSDI 0 .70 1 .19 0 .89 0.98 1 1 .08 1.331 1 .421 1.541 mllsof97 8.31 9981 1181 1 11486 18.5011 6.12 125.9 ( milsof97$ 1 26.37 26.61 i ,... 127.1 2 127.5< milso'97$ 110.441 I l'l I ID.5ml mllso'97S I 11.891 I 11.981 mils o' 97$ I 10.51' mils of97S I 11 :111\ I 11 44' 1 1 148\ 1 1 .59 \ l real 1 1 1 11 mils o f 975 1 <' ' 1 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 .01 O.D1 O.o1 0 .0 1 0.01 mils of 975 5.80 5.80 5 .80 5.80 5.80 5.& 5.80 5.80 5 .80 5.801 I % of RWR I 0.003 I 0.003 I 0.003 0.003 I 0 003 1 Units 202l 202 8 1 2 0291 2 MO I 2031 2032 1 20331 20S4 20SSI (Q7< 4.27 4S1I 4781 5 .01 5381 5.461 5 .561 5.85 5.721 197$ 131.72 !..2Z!. 8.47 s.s5l sAs 9.9< 1o.B2 I 1 11.361 I 970 I 11 oo l : 13201 14 1 I 14.31 14.6: I 14.881 1 5.09 1 197$ 3.68 4.1 4.321 4.821 4 .70 4.7. . 4 .93 1 I 97$ D O.!X 0.00 O.ot 0 .00 0.00 O.OC 0.00 0.00 0 0.71 0.81 0 .81 0.88 0 .9 ( 0 .91 0 93 ,f 9: I 1 8 I 19.21 I 2 1.32 1 22.811 23.21 24.36 'g: 1641 1 .82 1 92 1 2.051 2.09 2 .131 2. 1 6 2 1 9 mils >f97S m il of97S mils of 97$ I 29.0E I 32.251 I >5.oa I 21.s: I 28." I 28,45 110.53\ I C1.73ll 11.11: 1 1 1 111.92\ 1 mllsof97$ 1 <<" I < "J I 28.61 I 28.61 I ,, "''I 111.02\l 0.01 0.0 1 o.o: 0 01 0 011 0 0 1 0.01 0 011 0.01 miS of 97$ 5.801 5 .81 5.8C 5.80 5.8C 5 .8C 5 .801 5.8C I% of RWR I 0 002 c -13

PAGE 147

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FLORIDA HIGH APPENDTXD REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN DETAIL 0-1

PAGE 148

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE E CONOMIC I M PACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T a b le D-1. Eoon o m ie lmpad of th e Aorida High Speed Rail: Tampa Bay (Step 1) Year Tola l Employm e n t Wages & Salaries NonFann 1997 165 5.1 11. 5 1998 187 6 4 13 1 1999 282 9 8 20 2 2000 668 20.1 58.4 2001 1 7 4 5 52. 2 160. 7 2002 2 ,056 67. 5 195.0 2003 2 1 23 72 9 203.4 2004 1,910 69.1 183 8 2005 185 1 8 7 19. 6 2006 (134) 4 0 (3 5) 2007 (45) 2 8 4 1 2008 12 2 1 8.1 2009 34 1 0 8 1 201 0 92 1 9 13.0 201 1 141 3 0 17.3 2012 177 4 1 20 6 2013 205 5.0 23.1 2014 225 5 8 25 1 20 1 5 239 6 3 2 6 4 2016 248 6 7 27.4 2017 269 7 4 30. 3 2018 270 7 5 30. 6 2019 269 7 5 30. 5 2020 2 64 7 .4 30. 3 202 1 259 7.4 30.0 2022 253 7.5 29.7 2023 246 7 5 29. 2024 239 7 5 28. 2025 230 7 5 28. 2026 221 7 5 27 E 202 7 214 7 5 27.1 2028 206 7 5 26 2029 200 7 5 26 203() 195 7 6 26. ( 203 1 190 7 6 25. 2032 187 7 7 25.E 2033 185 7.8 25.6 2034 183 7.9 25. 6 2035 183 8 0 25.8 2036 183 8 0 25.8 2037 183 8 0 25 8 2038 183 8.0 25 8 2039 183 8 0 25 8 2040 183 8 0 25 6 204 1 183 8 0 26. 2042 183 6 0 25 2043 183 8.0 25.8 T o l a l 1 6 238 572.4 1,77 1,4 D 2

PAGE 149

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE E CON O MIC I MPACTS Tabl e 0-2 Economic Impact of the Florida High Speed Rail : Eut Central (step 1) 1---Y-..,';:;;::;tl __ Em_ p lo y_ m_m __ of 1997 S 19971 478 1 5 1 1998 543 19. 6 1999 91 32.' 2000 i ,235( 2 00 1 2002 2006 (320)1 2007 ( 141 2008 SPEED RAIL 31 661.1 472. 1 160,' (7, 41: 8 46.1 10. 1 5 511 1 1.9 55. 1 538 2016 55_51 2017 5991 .. 2020 15. 65. 2021 64. 2022 63. 20291 431 16. 2002 54. : 2033 17 54 1 2004 17. 54.1 2035 18. 1 2036 18! 3851 20421 38.5 54. .. D -3

PAGE 150

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 0.3. Eoonomic I m pact of the Florida High Speed Rail: Treasure Coast {Step 1) Year Total Employment 1997 566 19.4 37. 9 20001 :16 2001 ,.. 232 2002 238 2003 ,83 1 106.4 2004 32.4 2005 {621 o. 20061 {361 2007 2008 20091 2010 201 1 201 1741 25< 3 1 1 3.9 14.: 21. 27.4 32.6 36. 4 39. 202 4: 20Z 41' 11 4 202: 3961 11 41.4 2024 3801 11 43.: 362 11.6 4 2 1 202E 345 11.6 40. 9 2027 33 11.1 39. 9 203l 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 Tota l 2721 2721 2721 27l 12. 12. 12.9 12.9 12 9 12. 9 12. 9 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.4 37. 4 3.69 1 0-4

PAGE 151

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table Economic Impact of the Florida High Spee3) 1.1 2006 1 !131 0 1 2007 1 (57 0.! 20081 2009 6\ 2010 10! 2011 201: 1741 ;:; 211231 201 20241 19: 20251 18 2025 1 171 202< 16! 21. 202B 16< 20.0 2032 149 ... 20.1 2033 1491 6.' 20361 150] 20371 15 20381 15 20391 15 20401 2041 1501 2042 7. 20 20.6 20.6 20.6 zo.e 20.6 D-5

PAGE 152

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 0. Eeonomic I m pact of the Florida High Speed Rail: Date County (Step t) Year Total Employment of 1997$ 19971 146 5.4 19981 168 6.8 19991 289 11. 20001 1 ,007 37. 3 20011 !,102 75.7 (' >f 1997$ 13: 23. 102. (9.6)1 (0 1281 1631 20141 2161 r.4 20151 2221 27. 20161 2261 7.9 28. : 8.6 30.9 20 1 8 239 8.5 30. 8 2019 235 1 8. 2 020 230 8.3 202 22 2022 21! 29. 20291 17lll 26.8 20JO 1761 8 2 2 6. 6 2031 172 8 2 26 5 2032 171 8.4 26.6 203:3 171 8.6 26 8 172 8.7 27 2035 172 8.9 27.> 172 8 .9 27.> 2037 172 2038 2039 )41 27 142 17: 8. 27 0-6

PAGE 153

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL fale 0-6. Economic Impact of the Florida High Speed Rail; other Regi ons of Florida {Step 1 ) 'or"t997 $ .. __ 199 i 176 5. 1 1.9 _______________ ,9381 20031 6$.5 193. 0 20041 "''''I 59. 6 2005 287 21.4 27. 2006 (37 2007 48 20 1 0 .. 290 7 30. 7 301 8.3 31.8 301 6.4 32.5 3281 9. I 3271 7 1 101 20321 2033 2034 2035 2036 203: 2031 287 6.8 33.2 zr : 6.8 az.: """ 8.7 ,... 8.7 254 8.8 247 8.8 241 8.9 237 233 23 23 9. 9. 9.5 231 9.5 31 30. 30. 30. 7 30.7 30.7 1421 231 9 D-7

PAGE 154

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T a b le 0-7. Eoonomic Impact of the Florida H;gh Speed Rail : State of FloriciJ {Step 1) Year 19971 19981 1 9991 20001 Total Employment 745 OF FLORIDA HIGH ___________ 6 f----t B 1151 136.5 240. 1 20091 471 '"" 17. >11 26 8 145.6 .. ____________ 212.6 >181 1191 20201 2021 2,01)3 57.4 2022 1,950 57. """" ,891 . 4 2024 ,826 58.8 2.()251 ,757 . 2.()26 1 ,687 58.7 +-1 224. 20341 20351 20361 2042 2043 To1al 1,40 1 1,3951 ,394 ,394 1,394 1 64. 6 64.1 64.1 64. 1 64 6 ... 64 6 64 6 195. 4 195.4 195, 4 195. 4 195.4 195 .4 195.4 195.4 14, 0-8

PAGE 155

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA H IGH SPEED RAIL Tabl e D-8. Economic lmjl act of the Florida Hig h Speed Rail : Tampa Boy (Step 2) Year Total ""otl997 $ "'"' 16: 11.5 ,745 I 87: m 185. .. -,169) 1.9 . f---20071 ( 36) 1.4 1ti.Z 6 1 1.5 2 4. 6 120 Z6.6 20101 212 3.0 37.3 201 ;s.ll 13.! 75. : 16.1 82.9 202<1 I ... ____________ __ 2030 691 Zl>31 69! Z03ZI 11 : 2035 7561 7561 7561 1 9. 19. zz. 22. 22. 22.3 22.3 9Z. 93. 95. 97 6 99: 101 10 101 D-9

PAGE 156

AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table D-9. Econom ic I mpact of the Florida High Speed Rail: East Central (S iep 2) Year Total Employment Wages & Salaries Private Non.f'ann Output millions of 1997 $ m illions of 1997 $ 1997 478 15.8 33.6 1998 543 19.6 38.5 1999 913 32. 9 67.4 2000 3,235 1 00 .2 285.8 2001 6,516 207. 7 621. 3 2002 6 760 229. 5 661.1 2003 4,832 182 6 4n.a 2004 1,358 74.1 167 0 2005 (176) 17.2 17.7 2006 (425) (2.5) 18.4 2007 (123) (3 6) 45.5 2008 135 (2 0) 67.4 2009 345 0 2 84. 0 20 1 0 571 4 8 104.4 2011 n1 9 9 122 .4 2012 942 14.5 137.2 2013 1,078 18. 6 149 5 20 1 4 1,190 22 1 1 60.0 20 15 1 ,282 24.8 166. 8 20 1 6 1.350 27.0 176 4 2017 1 .458 30.0 1 8 8 .5 2018 1 .514 31.6 194 3 2019 1 .56 1 33. 0 199 4 2020 1 .599 34. 4 203.8 2021 1 634 35. 8 207. 9 2022 1 663 37. 1 211. 9 2023 1 687 38. 3 215.4 2024 1 713 39.6 219.1 2025 1 .735 40. 7 222.4 2026 1 755 41.7 225.6 2027 1 782 43. 0 229. 5 2028 1 813 44.4 233.8 2029 1 ,843 45 8 237. 9 2030 1,87 2 47.2 242.2 203 1 1 904 48 7 246.6 2032 1 945 50. 5 251.8 2033 1 987 52. 5 257.3 2034 2 ,035 54.8 262.6 2035 2 078 56.9 267.3 2036 2 078 56.9 267. 3 2037 2 .078 56. 9 267. 3 2038 2.078 56.9 267 3 2039 2.078 56. 9 287.3 2040 2,078 56.9 267 3 2041 2,078 56.9 267 3 2042 2,078 56.9 267.3 2043 2,078 56.9 267. 3 Tofal 81 ,797 2 ,255 10,05 5 D 1 0

PAGE 157

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table 0-10. Economic Impact of the Florida H i g h Speed Rai: Treas ure Coast (Step 2) Year Tota l Empl oyment f 1997$ 199 7 19.4 37. ::: I----ii : !'*: 20 .,. 1 20 6501 2014 201 5 2016 2017 2018 20251 20261 20271 20281 2029 2U.O 2031 2032 2037 1,338 1 ,35 5 1,368 1,37! 1,386 1,392 321 25. 26. 28. 2S. 31. 1 35 36 37.0 38.: 39.6 4 1 .2 42.7 203SI 41 64.! 85.' 1 55. 170 179. 185 1 89. 1 93.' 197.0 205A 2 1 5. 218.9 221 7 224.6 22&.5 .. D -11

PAGE 158

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF F LORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Ta b le D-1 t. Economic I m pact of the Florida High Speed Rail: Broward County {Step 2) Year 1997 1998( 1999( 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 200 2008 2009 Employmen t & 7$ 214 7. 241 9 418 15.: ,57 51. 94. 8 21 99.! 2T. 1,679 70. : 166. 21 15. 1 16. (26: :o.E (11.6) (201 03 @E 10. 14 19.9 102 o.: 28.' 20 2016 4 2 4 201 4511 2018 11. 65. 2019 470 11, 66. 2020 474 12.2 67, J 202 1 479 12. 5 66. 2022 481 12.9 66. 9 13. 2 69.5 13. 4 70.1 20 20 4791 20 480 20 484 2029 4861 14. 20JO( 4881 15. 203 1 4911 15. 75. 2032 499 1 16. 76. 2033 506 16. 78. 20J4 79. 20J5( 80. 20J6( 526 80. 20371 526 1 7 80. 20J8( 80.7 2039 526 17 8 80.7 2040 526 17. 8 80.7 2041 526 I '431 Tota 1 24. D-12

PAGE 159

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EcoNOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tabl e D1 2 Economic I mpact of the FlOrid a High Speed Rail: Dade County (Sfep 2} Year Total Employment o&: 1 9 97 14E 5A 11 19"" 16 1 6.E 13 1 9991 28! 23. 2000 051 37. 102. 2001 75. 1 2 16A 82 226.: 157.! 20.< (6.: o.er 201: 31( 9.: 47 201> 34; 10.0 51.' 2014 361 1 1 54. : 12 1 2016 2017 1 4 431J! . : 44: 66: 44! 66.1 440 16. 1 67. 440 16 : 68. ... 16.1 69. 441 16.: 69.1 441 17. 70.: 71 .. 17. 71. 4511 17. 72.1 __________ 4561 18 2!J>J 2034 79. 2035 80 ... 4891 21. 4891 21. 4891 21. D -13

PAGE 160

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 0..13. Economic Impact o f the Florida H igh Speed Rail: Other Region s of Florida {Step 2) Yaar Total Employment of 1997$ 1 991 1.9 199 20071 61 5 .1 20061 1:>51 20091 2 1 5. 20101 301 6 45.: 2011 1 350 8 53.: 2012 1 443 10. 4 ... 2013 492 t1 9 64.4 2014 533 13 2 68. 5 2015 58 L B 2016 58 20231 87: 18.1 20241 67: 18. 88.8 20251 67: 19 89. 7 2026 1 67: 19.4 90. 4 20>7 1 677 19 7 91 4 20281 682 20. 1 92. 6 2029 685 20.5 93.8 2030 68 95.0 2031 69 2032 70 20381 73<11 23.' 103. 20391 73<11 23.9 103.1 2040 1 73<11 23.' 103.1 2041 7381 23.9 103. 2042 736 23. 8 103. 0 14

PAGE 161

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tabl6 0-14. Eeonomlo Impact of the Florida High Speed Rats: State of Florida (Step 2) Year 199 2000 2001 2002 Total Employment m UIIons of 1997 S '16.6 22,7261 2003 ,577. 2004 5825 2005 (635)1 53.5 33.0 2006 ,0 7 . : 2007 (370) :6.' 104.2 2008 504 :t.2 232.7 731 J18 98. 550.1 579. 1: 2021 1: 2022 t: 20261 746. 20271 45. 759. ,5821 153. 782 '"' 1 56. 794. 11 702 100.1 20341 6,027 20351 1----ii 203! 866. 866. 866. 666.1 D -15

PAGE 162

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tabfe 0-15. Econom ic Impacts of t h e Florida High Speed Rail : Tampa Bay (Step 3) of 1997$ ;&: Year Total Employment 1997 t65 5. 1 t. --,gQ8 187 6.4 13. 1999 282 9 8 2Q. __________ 20021 1 .891 ,.. t 8 t.8 20031 1 956 20041 1 704 2005 1 9 20061 (342 : 2009 20t0 t71 0. 2012 1541 1 8 )13 2021 3 3 38. 514 24tl 2Qt 2Qt 3321 2Qt8 71 2QZ 2023 2024 39' 20Z 39< t o 391 to. 62 40' tO. 634 40S 10.! 64 5 41! 11. 1 65.5 0:301 42 11. 66.1 o3fl 42! 11.1 43S 12.; 69.5 5:l:f 44S 12 .' 71. 1 4631 1 72.! .. 20381 4761 20391 4761 2040 4761 204 47E 13.9 t3. 9 13 9 13.9 1 3.9 615.4 74 74.' 74 74. 0-16

PAGE 163

. AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T a b le D16. Economic lmpatS of tftt' Florida H i9'h Speed Ra i l : East Central (Sttp 3) __ __ '01 2000 2001 2002 20031 6 ,321 2004 90 2005 (641 """" (902! I 2007 :61! 2006 :372 64.5 7.0 14A 629. 1 7 8. 29.1 2000 ______ ______ 201 201 5851 8 113. 12 7 .. ,., ... 16 3 20191 0971 17.5 20201 """' 1 8.5 2021 1 95 3( 1 9.7 20221 97til !0.7 2024 2025 2026( 2034 2035 2036 1 20371 20361 ,026 ,040 ,060 1,065 ""'' 130 1 ,156 1 ,1911 26. 29. 30. 31. 147.0 170. 174,' 180.1 184.! 188 9 193.5 197.9 Tof. 20 2039 1 3051 D -17

PAGE 164

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T able D-17. Econom i c lmpads oftbe Florida High Speed Ra il: Treas ure Coast (Step 3} Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 T o l a l Employment 6271 ,0 901 1,215 1 { 533) 1 2006 {915 19.4 23. 40. 6 221 147. 4 18.8 {18.' ; o f 1997 s 42. 78. 691 704 { 0 6 8 2018 68: 10.6 138. 2019 711 11. 6 2020 731 12. 5 2021 2 0 22 2024 2025 m 2026 m 1ss. 2028 . 2032 837 20.6 172. 2033 853 21.5 170 2034 87 2 2 7 2035 895 23.7 180.8 2036 895 23.7 2037 895 23.7 180.8 2038 895 23.7 2039 895 23.7 2040 895 :04 895 1----------Tol< D -18

PAGE 165

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table ().18. Econ o mic I mpacts o f t h e Florida High S peed Rail: Broward County (Step 3) Total Employment 'or Year sof1997$ 1997 214 7.3 15.0 ,. .. 24 17.1 199il 411 2000 2001 20021 :n 1.2JI (4.5 JI 17: 7.0)1 4.2 2012 881 201! 731 2 0 1 e 1891 2021 2022 20231 Z!Yl41 20251 2026 2027 2028 20291 2030 1 2036 2 2 : 221 225 223 2 2 21 21 21 225 1 2291 238 244 3. 37 3.' 4 43. 4. .... 4.' 44. 5.1 4 5 4 4 4 7 47. 48.: 48.! 49.4 49.' 7. o i.O 7.6 8 1 --------------""' 20'37 244 53. 2006 244 53 2039 244 53.9 2040 244 . 2041 244 53 5 20421 53.9 D 1 9

PAGE 166

AN ANALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tabk! 0 1 9 Eoonomie Impacts of the Aorida High Speed Rail: Dade Co unty {Si e p 3) Year Total Employment 1991 146 199 1681 200 im-2002 2003 377 2004 71) 2005 {325)1 20051 {254 20101 351 201 551 SA 6. 78. 61. 12. 5)1 0 1 1 3 3 ; of 1 1 3 13. 2 23. 6.0 (9. 1 (O.J 24.8 28. 20201 2231 8.1 4 2021 1 2231 8 : 4 20221 2231 8.4 44. 20231 221 8 1 44. 2024 219 8.7 40.0 2025 2 8.8 45 l 9.61 9 203 1 0 2: 1361 20371 20381 20391 20401 2041 204l 2043 Tot a l 2: 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 02. 11 5l.3 11. 5 1 1.5 11.5 11.5 2 D 20

PAGE 167

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table D-20. Economic Impacts of the Florida High Speed Rail: Other Regions of Florida (step 3) __ IEm __ __ nl __ >&: 20 20 >3. 20 >3. 15.' 2005 80 1 17 20001 :210)1 (1.4) 20071 :t42)1 0 4 10. 20001 (53)1 0.3 17.E 20091 (3)1 (0.1) 20. E <010 791 '-' 28.2 201 2 2071 39.! 2013 2014 28 3E3 7.0 374 9. . 2029 388 ______________ 20 42: t4. n.s 203 42: 14.2 2040 4221 2041 422 2042 "' D -21

PAGE 168

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE E CONO M IC I M PACTS Table Economic lmr>3cts of the Florida High Speed Rail: State of Florida (Step 3} Year Total Employment W ages & Salaries Privat e Output millions of m illions of 1997 S 1997$ 1997 1,745 58.2 120 2 1998 1,964 72 0 136.5 1999 3,303 120 7 2 40. 1 2000 11,512 353. 4 1 ,031.3 200 1 20.534 676 1 2 026.8 2002 21,218 748.9 2,151 7 2003 1 4 ,531 580.7 1,459 1 2004 3,295 222 9 461 7 2005 (2 415) 15 5 (90 .8) 2006 (3 065) (45 6) (72.2) 2007 (2 039) (48 1) 22.3 2008 (1,203) (42 3) 96 2 2009 (550) (34.8 ) 151.0 201 0 135 (20.4) 2 16.2 2011 744 (4 6) 271 9 2012 1 219 9 5 316. 6 2013 1 .595 21.5 353. 1 2014 1,896 31. 3 383. 1 2015 2 135 39. 0 407. 9 2016 2 324 44 7 428. 3 2017 2,585 53. 0 453 6 2018 2.706 56. 7 478.0 2019 2 795 59.7 489.9 2020 2 ,857 62. 5 499.2 2021 2 9 1 7 65. 6 508. 1 2022 2 955 68.5 516.1 2023 2 980 70.9 523. 0 2024 3 006 73 3 529. 8 2025 3 ,021 75 2 535. 7 2026 3 032 76 8 541 3 2027 3 063 79. 2 549.1 2028 3. 109 82.0 558.1 2029 3 ,148 84. 5 586. 5 2030 3 ,185 86.9 575. 1 2031 3 230 89. 5 584. 4 2032 3.3 1 1 93 4 596 8 2033 3 ,386 97 2 609 2 2034 3.490 102.2 621 8 2035 3 .577 106 8 632.4 2036 3 ,577 106 8 632.4 2037 3 .577 106 8 532.4 2038 3,577 106 8 532. 4 2039 3 ,577 106.8 632 4 2040 3 ,577 1 06.8 632.4 2041 3 ,577 106. 8 632 4 2042 3,577 106. 8 632. 4 2043 3,577 106 8 632.4 Tot:i1 165 ,849 5.146 5 25,548 0 0. 22

PAGE 169

. AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table 0.22 Economic l mpacto of1he Florida H igh Speed Roil: Tampa Bay (Step 4) Yoar Tolal Elnployment .. 11.5 19981 1 87 13." 282 9 8 20.2 2000 !0.1 58 4 (34l 13. 7 1 (21< 3 ( 1. (122; 3.( 9.: 20091 (69) 12. 6 2010 20.7 2011 99 o. 28 3 20121 166 . 1 181 3851 9.4 58. 1 . 4301 11.0 441 11.0 85. 3 202: 45 12.1 68.8 2024 472 13.0 2025 4791 13.1 ______________ 20 5181 15 6 77 ______________ 20 5591 17.4 83.0 203 5711 18.1 84.9 2034 5881 18. 68.1 20351 6001 19.4 20361 600 19. 20371 600 19.4 20381 600 20391 503 20401 88.1 2041 1 88. 9 D -23

PAGE 170

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T a ble 0-23. Economic Impact of the Florida High Speed Rail: East Central (Step 4} Year Total Employment Wage:s & salaries PriVate Non .. fatrn Output 1997 478 15.8 33.6 1998 543 19.6 38.5 1999 913 32.9 67.4 2000 3,235 100.2 285.8 2001 6,070 196.1 589.0 2002 6,32 1 220.2 629.1 2003 4,385 173.0 440.0 2004 902 54.2 133,4 2005 (541 ) 7 0 (16.9) 2006 (902) (12 9) (17.3) 2007 (615) (14 3) 8 5 2008 ( 372) (13 .1) 29 1 2009 (179) (11.3) 44 .2 2010 29 {1.2 ) 83.1 20 1 1 226 (2.2) 80.3 2012 388 2 4 94.7 2013 519 6.5 106.7 2014 617 9.5 1 15.9 2015 700 12 0 123.8 2 016 776 14.3 131.2 2017 873 17.4 143.1 2018 928 19 0 148.9 2019 974 20 6 153 .9 2020 1 .014 22 2 158.4 202 1 1 051 23 8 162.6 2022 1 083 25.3 166.6 2023 1,109 26.7 1 70.3 2024 1,156 28.9 1 75.S 2025 1,180 30. 2 1 79.2 2026 1.206 31. 5 1 62.8 2027 1 ,235 32.9 1 86.8 2028 1 ,268 34.4 1 91.1 2029 1,300 35.9 195 .3 2030 1.333 37.4 1 99.8 2031 1.373 39.1 204.9 2032 1.410 40. 7 209 6 2033 1,450 42.5 2 14.8 2 034 1,495 44.4 219.7 2035 1.539 46.3 224.2 2038 1,539 46.3 224.2 2037 1 ,539 46.3 224.2 2038 1 ,539 46.3 224.2 2039 1,539 46.3 22 4 .2 2040 1.539 46. 3 224.2 2041 1 539 46.3 224 2 2042 1 539 46. 3 224 . 2 2043 1 539 46.3 224 2 TO!al 58.661 1 ,7 83 8.261 D -24

PAGE 171

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECON O MI C IMPACTS Table D24. Economic lmpacts of the Florida High Speed Rajl; Treasure Coast (Step 4 ) ::: Tolal Employment 37 9 Year I--_; ______ .; .g 20071 -630 20081 -38 [ 16.< 29.6 200! -18 [ 13.1 49.4 67.2 2011 15 [5.' 82.3 94 6 ______ 201 9 7' 1 1 9 2 020 740 1 2 202 759 1 3 9 202 i t t 14. 8 2023 7801 15. 1 54. 2024 7891 -16. 3 157 2025 7931 1 6.8 159. 20261 7961 17.3 2027 804 17. 9 _______ 173. a 22.< 179. 9021 23.1 182,' 92( 24 185.1 92C 24. 185. 920 1 24 185 1 920 1 24 185.1 9201 24. 185 1 9201 24. 1 9201 24 1 920 2 4 D -25

PAGE 172

AN A NAL YSJS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Tab1e 0. Economic Impacts of the P:lorlda High Speed Rail : Broward COunty {Step 4) Year Tols l Employment ,_&: 199< 214 7 3 15. ,,,. 241 9 1 au )001 142 2 ;: 1506 152 )04 1 2 -21 (4. I >101 2011 1 43 24 20121 .. o : 29 2013 133 1,0 33.' 2014 100 2 7 30. 5 2015 182 3 4 38.8 2016 200 4.1 40. 9 201 7 226 5 1 44 5 2018 236 45. 9 201 9 242 m 20201 24E 20241 257 7 4 5 20251 250 7 5I 2 0201 255 7 52. 20271 258 8 52. 20281 259 8.4 53. 20291 282 8 54. 20301 264 9.0 55. 2 2031 268 9 : SB. 2 2032 274 9.7 57.3 2033 10.1 58.4 Ol ..!.!; [ill Toll I D -26

PAGE 173

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table 0. Economic l mpad:s of the Florida High Dade Cou.nty (Step 4) Year 19971 1 9981 19991 20001 20011 20021 20031 2004f 201 201: 2014 2C 2016 2( 71 TofaJ Empl oyment 146 !68 299 1 ,057 1 953 1 1,377 {71) 132511 (25411 130 1 162 1 183 1 1991 2141 7 1 '&: 71. 78 2 61.6 12.2 ,5ll i.4ll 1.311 3. 6 6.8 7.5 278 1 1 f 281 12. 28< 1 2. 2881 13. 20291 292 13.! 20301 296 14.1 203' 303 14 1 1 3 1 3. 6.0 9 .5JI l .8ll ) 8 30. 33 36. 38.! 40.E 5 53. 54 55.! 56. 57.1 !E E:; 20391 33l 16.E D-27

PAGE 174

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA T a b le 0-27. Eoon omic Impacts of the F l orida H i g h Speed Rai l : Other Regions of Florida (Ste p 4) Year T ota l Employment 1997 176 11.9 1 99.! 21.1 S.. l 107. 9 178.9 1,881 1:'8.3 >OI 1, 20051 2000 271 2007 (1.. 0 10. 20001 (53J o. 17. 2009 (3) (0.1) 20. 2010 7! 28. 2011 292 7. 47. 201 2 52! 14. : 70. 2013 739 21 4 90. 201 4 77 : 23.7 ... 115 85 103. 6 >18 1 1 ,41 2 0 191 1,585 2 0201 ,744 20211 1 ,902 ... 20251 759 20261 ,940 20271 ,067 20281 ,20 1 2029 1 .336 2030 3 7 54. 6 1 66. 75. 4 82. 98. 6 100. 1 122. 20<10 20<11 20<121 ,897 ,897 ,897 168. 168. 168. 1 9 24 306. 44 449. 1 449. 9 0-28

PAGE 175

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Tabl e D-28. Eoonomi e Impacts or the FlOrida H igh Sp.eed Rai l : State of Florida (S tep 4 ) Ye8f Total Employmen t 1997 120.: 1996 !; 1999 ,303 2001 240.1 :.+-----=i 2
PAGE 176

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL AppendixE Raw REM/ Output Tables This appendix provides raw REM I output data. They are briefly described below : Data are for the overall impact scenario, which includes the f ollowing impact variables: System Development User Benefits Non-U ser Benefrts Reduction in Automobile Spending Reduction in Consumer Spending Reinvestment of Net Operating Revenue Data are separated for each of the six regi ons and for the state of Florida; Data are shown for selected years: 1999-2004, 2010, 2015, 2025, 2035; and Data are shown in five tables for each region: E -1

PAGE 177

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS El. S'Jm S'J!I'.KAAY TABI.f FOR TAYPA BAY STE P 4 (TA8l( I REfERENt$ tN PAR(NTHF.S) TOTAl Elfl.C'r'I!EllT (3) &,P l OF US TOT PRJ'/ H F tt?U'TCll P (5) P[RSCN.4l lKCOIE (4) P.$ t <:F US 000 CIS'?C6Aet (4) Pt(fRJCE JN!):<-S2 ( 4) Ru.t OJS? INti)!( (4) X!PU!.ATIW (J) POP AS l Of US 1999 res T .291 .000 .Z82 ,000 010 .011 .000 .009 01>1 .006 177 000 2000 Ftsl .685 .000 6!8 .001 .031 .024 .000 "'' .009 .013 .34 1 .000 2001 !
PAGE 178

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH Tabl e El: SI.PtWY TAI:LE feR PRlV.\T SECTORS fCft lAYPA BAY STEP 4 COET.r.lta> 'l'ASLE ICF Ul P.iiMKS CIO $Cl)) !91i9 200l 2003 2004 201& 201S 202S l<):JS F'CST resT fCST FCST FCST F'Csr FCST resT resT FCST PRI'IATE EHPLOYI9IT (W OF P"alPLE) AXD I 'IS D!CCtiPtmlOII 8Y 9i!AU (R OOWiD: TOTj1J_ EH?l'tli!!T (7.18 ) .65 8 1.577 1.891 1.95 5 1. iD4 0 1 7 292 ,479 .6CG HITERIDl"-TE (7. 1 9 ) .06S ISO .409 .507 .539 .485 .001 .0114 .1.38 .168 LOC (] ,21} .000 001 .ODe .ooa .0!13 .000 .003 .006 .000 lK\t$T ta>ITY <8.22) .016 .041 .055 .101 .090 070 .009 .015 .024 .026 EXP US/WORl0(8.23) . 003 -.007 O I S -.026 -.03$ .057 .028 .004 .006 .0117 EXP HULTREG <8.24) .049 .167 l93 .115 .003 .024 .072 i 20 .150 EXOOEOOUS (8.l5l .096 .194 .560 .700 .870 .939 .009 016 .024 COSTS NID stLLHIG PRlCE:S Ril.ATI'i! 1 0 'THE \1. $ : Stl.lliG PRICE (9,26) .00(11!8 .0(1(118 .00(127 .00032 .00030 .00008 . 00007 .00006 .00006 FACTOR HIPUTS (9.27) .OO CC6 .00011 .00025 .C0)39 .CD043 .C'0017 -.00015 1!001 4 .00013 !.AWR (9.28) .00008 .00017 .00039 .C0064 .00061 .0001 0 .C0009 .00007 .00006 fUEL (9,29) .00000 .00000 .03000 .COO!lO .COO!IQ. .1100110 .CO!l!IO 0000 0 .OOO!lO .00!100 eM> iT H. (10,30) .00002 .OOOC4 .00012 .(!0021 .DOII2S .00031 .oooco .OOGCi -.001701 .00000 lKm'IEO m?tJTS .oocoo .00006 .00014 .OOOll .00027 .OOOlS .OOOC8 .00001 .00006 .00006 OTIR VARlA3lE'S: REL PROO WG (10.3?) .00000 .00000 .00000 .coooo .coooo .00004 .00009 .00009 .C0009 .00000 REL 9R.Of Hf'G <10.33) .. 00003 . 00006 0!101 4 00021 .COOlS . 00020 .00013 .00312 .00012 .ooon l}R IHIDISTYC11. 34) .oocoo .00001 .00001 00002 .. .00002 .osoco .00002 .ooooa H!!lTAOJ (11. 35) .O!ICO!I .oooco .00000 .00000 .0000 0 .oocco .oooco .00000 .00000 .00000 ,1!P t Oi U .S (H. 56) .000 .001 .COl 00 1 001 .001 .oco .oco .000 .000 RPI>SS{()EIWIO <11. 37) .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .oco .oco .000 .000 AYG !lAGETHCUSH2.38) .OOl .000 .008 .015 .017 .017 .COG COl 002 .C H ;(l. lUX HI(X( (12 39) .OIIOOS ,00013 011037 .031147 .OOIIEO -.001167 .O!IIIN .00003 ,00llll'2 -.0!1(103 I N S ILUOOS OF .!UED 1992 OCUA!I.S: OOWitl 02.4{1 ) .0!764 ,04505 .10914 14$68 .13V5 .04za:l .0525<) .08141 ll352 .01405 .02635 .0266 1 .01 .00075 .017339 .00816 .OIA21 .01842 EXOSEir:liJS P lltl!t
PAGE 179

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Table : EMPLOYHENT T.t.at.:: FOR TAJ9A SAY STEP 4 (IN nm54'11:6 OF P{Ofllt) 1999 ZOOD 2001 zooz 2003 Z004 2DlS Z02> zoo; FCST FCST FCST FCST Ftsr FCST FCST F'CST FCST FCST KA.III,F !.(Tl,.R( .014 .011 ,l,l !t!l .13$ .0)1 "" .030 .0<0 .041 AS. A l OF U S .1!03 .OOJ ''" .001 .001 .000 .0011 .ODO .ODD .oco CWSLES .OOi .0>2 .lOS .14$ .113 .G" ,001 017 .023 .on t{li .019 .034 .03) .025 .037 .003 .013 0 1 8 .020 NOli twilf ACTtiRE .269 .597 1.43 5 1. 709 1.818 1.653 .013 .Zil .439 .563 /IS A f Of U .S. .000 ,0,1 .031 .001 .002 .001 .000 .000 .coo K!NIN:i .coo .001 .003 .003 .C02 .001 .0011 .ono .OlD .000 Wtr .013 "" .494 .650 .)99 .8>3 ,.,.. .0!13 .OJS .OZ4 YRlSPMT PUa UT .oos Ott .032 .036 .032 .037 .026 .001 .002 .028 ftii\:,:'!CE. ( .'IS. P. .012 .uo .13$ .072 06$ .049 .000 .020 .032 .039 RTI.l l TAAO .C.I3 .G96 .190 .2<1.1} .23S .182 .C07 .043 .073 .oss 'KlQ.E$AI..E TAA .1!07 .022 .C62 .062 .055 .OJi tl .012 .018 0 2 0 S ER'/JCE S .165 .Z96 5i3 .634 618 m 015 .151 .349 /(,((! l SH .COl .CC6 .010 .011 .010 .OC6 .COl .003 .005 .008 TOT.At OO'IE$tlllt0fl .OC9 .011 .0'35 .C68 .oeo .09) .1!61 .057 .086 .113 AS;.. t OF U .S. .000 .coo .000 .000 .oco .000 .000 .000 .003 .000 ST LOCAl. GO\'T .009 .011 .068 .oeo .49 2 .031 1.80 2 .078 .359 .565 .117 AS :. t o r u.s. 000 .coo .001 .001 .001 .001 .000 .ODO .000 .000 P091!lA11Ctl 171 .loll )05 1 1 85 l.622 1. 979 1 .22il 1.352 1 .797 2.352 AS "'t or u s .ouo .oao .aoo .ooo .00! .on "" .000 .001 .001 E 4

PAGE 180

AN A N A LYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table E li: PERSalA.L ll!CW lAI!I. FClt lH1PA SAY STEP 4 W I BtltiCtS fli 1/QiiK.IL 00..\.AAS} 1999 2000 2001 2()02 2003 2004 2010 2015 11)25 ZOJS FCST FCST FCSl fCST rcsr FCST FCST rcsr FCST FCST -AND s.>L D IS$ .01021 .OZ148 .05201 .07081 .07829 .OJ1100 .00223 Wl33 0249) .045'01 fli.OPRJ l'ORS .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .COOIJO 00000 .00000 .00000 .CCODO .00!100 OTHER l+'beft U.'We .0016() .00377 .01094 .0141 0 .01593 .01S32 .00072 .00337 .corn .0!259 OER1VAT1tt( OF U:ol. 8Y Pl.AtE O F R!0Cl: TOT li\StR+ PilCP Jl;( .01181 .02524 .06295 .08492 .09413 .09&32 03151 .01270 .03226 U S .000 .0 0 0 .001 .001 .002 . 001 .000 .000 .000 .000 lESS SOC IHSI! 00 .00081 .00110 .0041) .00562 .00622 .00589 .00018 .C0075 .00201 .00363 lUG RESIO AOJ .00007 .00016 .ooon . 00<162 .0013-1 . 00227 .00007 .00043 .00305 .00638 PlUS .R.Eill .00058 .00116 .00248 .00434 .00621 .00811 .00792 .00983 01512 .02659 PUiS TIWGFER PAY .0002 7 . 00093 0025:1 . 00193 . 00045 .00210 .00834 .01190 .0211$ PR5alll. IIIWIE Jlll2.t .02393 .05857 .09108 .09238 .C913S .OJSOO .03lll .0 .10909 It$ At fF U S .coo .000 .031 ()I) } 001 .001 .000 .coo .000 .000 LESS TAXES .00171 .00383 .009 .0)280 .01432 .01378 .00103 .00345 .00753 .01354 DISFCGASLE PER. JXC .ooou .02010 .04924 05828 .0781}7 .07760 .01397 .02765 .05280 .09456 FCi PRICE [lltX 91 .00416 .OOSS6 .03Z20 .04327 .0499S .04716 0050331 8 001.18 .00220 .C0301 .00355 IUS. R .00!156 .00228 .coon .00:!87 .00320 .00073 .00028 .00123 .00219 RETAIL 1R#.l .0010S .00227 .00485 .Ot'651 00695 .00602 .00116 .O!l036 .Oi11&3 .00351 MiOLES.lL TAAOE .001)4& .{101 3 0 .00309 .C04Dl .00399 .003! 6 .00057 .00032 0 0113 .00178 .00733 01180 .02211 .0&954 .03197 .029C-6 .00173 .00520 0 1543 .02912 AGRIIF
PAGE 181

lA! L ;: GRS> B Y FIAAL tOW.O TI&.E Fo.Q TW.PA BAY S TP (STU.Jtt.!S W OIA.lN 1992 US OOI.LAASREtoh'tltE:D 1/R.l! E J.OC(O) TOTJ.I. GQ11 TOTiol AUTOS IJIO PAAT$ & HSEHLO EQ. OTHEit OURA!L!S ft(}) & 8E\'JW>ES & SHJS GASCllNE & OIL fl; Oil & COtol. OTWR. l'()ti'OIJI!ASLES !iOOSIIIG HS&ILO 09EJtATJOfl' HEALTK SERVICES OTHR. S!R.'IJCES FIXt O INll[$ 1 RESJOENTUJ. AESICEtfrl;.t. ?ROO. OOil.. (Q.JJP. C81 NET I V A HJSC TOT.Al. GO'IUI(trr FEO 00'/ HIL JTAAY F 00'1 CI'ilUAll STAT/LOCJII. GO\' TOTAZ. EXPORTS NC00Eii00S E X P TOTAl li'.PORTS TOT W B'f V,IL NJD TOT PRlY Nf \'Al AD TOT G9 .000$4 .00020 .0028 .00143 .00055 .ll0008 .00018 .0001:8 .00303 00000 .01)331 .00000 .00000 .00031 .11076-9 .00401 .01)382 .Gce!!9 .013SS .Oll$l .00203 .000110 2lll$ rm .02776 .018113: .01)3Sl .00086 .01>)36 .00164 ,()0071 .00038 .00002 .OI>l 8S .00322 .00057 .00314 00&72 .00103 .00118 .004S! .OOIJM .00000 .00377 .00000 .00000 .00371 01544 01141 .Ol&Q .02776 .0254$ .0\123l! .00000 202$ rc:sr .OtlOS .OZ'047 00144 .00057 .()02:57 .oon.; .00055 .00002 .0!}263 .CIJ.IJS .00193 .00084 .00461 .OC41 9 0089.1 .03136 .O!IIS3 .00606 .00009 oocoo .OOS!S .00000 .00000 .03S16 .02331 .01669 .02292 .0 .00790 .00316 .00000 21)35 FCST .06202 .03733 .CI0143 .00212 .00082 .01)369 .C0164 .00376 .COOC-3 .00377 .00565 .00270 .00111 .00644 .00671 .009 .(10! 8 0 .00157 .00629 .000119 .00000 .00718 .00000 .00000 .00718 .02182 .00439 023<-1 03007 0 4162 (104-o:O 0 0000 E-6

PAGE 182

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Table E -6 : SUPal S\r.IW.R.Y ToiBL fOR WT CN'tfW. STEJ> 4 (lA$1.. # Ri=EREIICS 111 PAAffiSS) TOTM.. (3) t OF US TOT PRI'I EHPLYT<2l PR }!F ? t ff US GRP ((11<11) 92il (5) PRSOO;lt IUCCtiE (4) P!RS JliC t Of US 01SPOS:.SL IIICCti (4) PCEPRICE (4) REM. OlSP ( 4) 1999 FeST .942 .001 .913 .00! .033 .037 .001 .031 013 .022 .591 .ooo 20(1) F<5 .CS of pecple. OO:.i.AA c
PAGE 183

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA H IGH SPEED RAIL 1 : 51JittARY TA31. FM AAIVATE SECTm$ FOR EAST OOITIW. STEP 4. (OETA!I.&I !A8L f llf W PAAENSUO SCf.4 9 SCT)) !999 2!1CO 2001 201>3 2004 20!0 201 $ 202> 2035 fCST FCST FCST fCST ftST FCST FCST FCST F(.Sl TCST :QliiWi EHPLOYHST (lN llLISMtiS Of POOPLE} .A};() IT'S 8Y OF DEI'WiO: TOT PL. Hillffllff 0 18) .913 3.235 6 .070 & .321 4 Jes .93Z: .029 700 1.180 l.SJ9 Jliltlli1::01A TE () 19) .214 .777 1 53) 1.533 LOIS ) 79 .020 .217 .358 .442 LCC/ot OO!iS'JH ( 7 ,(0) .201 .626 l.OSO .&80 .007 .on .316 50 1 .697 ooon C{tW(l (7 .21) ,0(13 .oos .001 .007 .002 002 .00 7 .ou .02> INVEST ACTVTY (8.22) .0$3 187 .326 318 .153 . 0(9 . 02! .ooa .OS9 .069 EXP US/WGRU0( 8 .23l . 013 .03l 070 .117 .149 .163 OS< .025 .065 .078 EXP (8.24) .056 .2 1 3 .362 .341 .197 .04& . 015 .079 .176 .238 EX001.0\1$ ( 8 ,2$) 2 .&91 2 .012 1.006 .02> .OlS .003 011 COSTS JJrJ SLLJI;G PIUCS fi!V.ll'/ TO THE U.S.: SLllll$ PR[C ( 9 .2&1 .tU012 .aco3 s .onen .00094 .ll01ll!3 .00045 . 0002:5 00022 . 00019 . 00015 FACTOR HIPUTS { 9 .2]) .CU018 .00107 .00 143 .COl(l .!1005, . oons.s ,{ICQ52 110049 .OOOI.S WOR (9.28) .C0028 .00092 .0016') .00203 .00111 .!10097 .00037 00031 OOOZ7 FUEL ( 9 .29) .00!100 .OMOO .oocoo .coooo .00000 .00000 .00000 .ocooo .oooco .00000 CAP !TAl (10.-30) .oooaa .ocosr .C0083 .cooes .000&3 .00007 .CC009 . 00007 . 000()4 ltlTRH lSMS .000 .000 .COl .001 .co; .oao .ooo .OliO .000 .000 WlSE TH30SC12 .38) .009 .019 Ml .053 .oso .028 010 .4192 Sl..f SUPPlY U3 4 2 ) .0341!3 .12637 .23470 .244"30 !S9ZO .02730 .0392(1 .08;1!3 l28$t 16711 O:PtmS (13.43) . 00112 00277 0061' . 0 1031 01314 01287 .00493 0 1313 .01812 ,02009 UfTAAREG iRD <13.44) .00000 .coooo .OC003 .00000 .00000 .OO!ICO .00000 .C()300 .OOC03 .0000!1 PRON{l3.45 ) .0215') .13530 .3C5'30 .33510 .2>25'3 .01300 0 1321 .01565 .0!581 MM <14. 46) .0610! .lSS30 .53357 .569&9 .39!$7 .120etl .U.211 .16231 .2 ,1EOZJ O U65 0 1332 .01213 ....... .08500 E-8

PAGE 184

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF Table E S: Elti'LO\'MOIT TA81.. F'OR E.AST CEmRM. STtP A THOOSN1!:6 OF PEllE> 1999 2000 2401 2402 2403 :0004 2lll0 201 5 2tll25 2435 F'CST FCST fCST fCST f($T fCST feST FCST FCST FCST .016 .164 .454 ..468 .289 .017 .ooa ,();4 .06S .067 AS At Of U S .000 .COl .00 2 .003 .001 .000 .000 .coo .COl .001 DURA3l.ES .007 .136 .1104 .41 9 185 009 .003 .005 ,1)03 .039 HCII'OUAASLS .01)9 .023 .04 9 .048 .024 .008 .005 016 .... .0!8 1'\k'tl.fAC'Tl.R e97 J.on 5 6 1 6 5.8..'3 4.176 .91 9 .021 ,615 1 .112 1.472 AS,. r Of u s .OGl .COJ .ocs .005 .004 .0111 .000 .coo .COl .001 Hlt:INS .000 .COJ .007 .007 .005 .001 .000 .coo .COl .00 1 CCtlT COliSTR:U:TIOK' .096 .903 2 .203 2.318 2 .078 .765 .046 .019 .061 .089 1!t11QPORT +Pt.!S UT 018 .065 .119 .us .DOll .OJO .050 .075 .078 .07 2 Fltllo.Xtt. lNS,+ 1< .035 .369 .524 .59'2 .133 .013 .Oil< .0<6 .075 .099 RETAIL 11W l$2 .482 .lliO m .507 .019 .UE .:003 .215 \Ml.ESAL TAAII .01 6 .069 .138 .139 .031 002 .002 .024 .007 .042 SERVIet:S .sn l.l6S 1.781 1.2'&5 .140 .027 .351 .645 .818 />!Rl/FORIF!SH SVC .00< .016 .OlO .030 .016 .. ocs .00 3 .oos .011 .017 TOTN-EOVffiS11S!tT .029 .071 .ISO .23<' .280 .275 .l&l .245 .269 .35' /IS A% Of U S .000 .000 .001 .COl .001 .001 .001 .001 .001 .001 ST /IJll OO'IT .... .071 .150 .234 .280 .ZIS lin .2CS .269 .354 F(O, GfJIT. Cl\'1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .oco .oco .000 .000 FE:D. GO\'T. Mtll. .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 000 .000 .000 .000 FiWC EHPLOYHEN T .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 10 A t OF U S .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 TOTAL O '.PlO'fflEliT .942 3.306 6 .2ZO 6 .555 4 665 1.177 .:009 .90S 1 .449 1.893 AS A t OF U .S . 00 1 .002 .004 004 .003 .0!11 .000 .001 .001 .00 1 POPl.lATlO .591 l.MiO 3 .1).16 4.719 5 .617 5.470 3 .572 4,126 5.577 7.284 f:E U .S. .000 .Olll .QOl .002 .C02 .002 .00 1 .001 .002 .002 E-9

PAGE 185

AN ANAL YS / S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS : PERSCtiAl. JII(.(J(E T.Aa. F'OR i;.ASl CENTRAl (!h' 81LUQ.'(S O F l(l(NAJ. OO.LAAS) 1999 2COO 2001 2C02 20C3 2QQ4 20!0 201 5 2025 2035 f'CST fest fesT FCST FCSi FCST FCST FCST F(S T FCST W.SE .4r.C S"t 0158 .ll3442 .10710 .21431 .24$9$ .19750 0749$ .OOSS< .omo .06635 lliCCti" .00000 .00000 .oocco .00000 .coooc .00000 .00000 .oonco .00(100 O'Th'ER LASeR .00553 .0217' .0491S .03930 .0!22 1 .00876 .0!934 03417 OF PERSCtiAt JJCOO'IE SY PV.C IX RESI0:: TOT !.ASCR PROP iNC .0399$ .12 $ .25948 .zmz .C8715- 0076' .OZ66S .07569 .14352 PS At O F U.S. .001 .C02 .cos .C05 .004 .OCl .coo .000 .001 .001 LESS sot HISR 00 .C0264 .0092:3 01650 .01896 01524 .QOS19 .C0074 .00139 .00040 .008S7 PLUS R NJJ . 00086 .0027S 0057 8 .00686 006<) . 0020) .00018 .OOOSO . 00114 . 00213 PLUS OJY. (NT .RENT .C0153 .03384 .00843 ,01375-. 0 174$ .0!849 .OlW .02327 .03670 .C6506 PLUS TRAXSfER PAV .00081 . 03502 .00858 .00366 .OC619 0 1 9 l 0 .02522 .028 1 3 .WJBO .07120 PERS(>IAJ. I K(X)!f; .0311) .11667 .23)1)5 .21960 .24Co35. .11768 .0361!3 .0761 6 .14655 .26907 AS At: OF U .S. .00 1 .002 .C03 003 .003 .oc o .COl .001 001 lESS .00673-.0 1837 .03111 .0'-292 .03533 .014$3 .00176 .00)31 .0 1629 .03023 DtSPOSAJ!t Pt:R. INC .03144 .0933 0 19993 ,Z'Jo578 .2050< .10289 .03507 .06e85 .l:i03& .mas PCEPRJCE II,'(IEX .01337 ,04(142 l2iC 4 .1$521> lJ78 1 .08>13 .Oi034 01607 .omz . 011936 REAL OIS P E R WCl)t .0219& .06713 .114-11 .12822 lOS$ .0<49l .0307& .ll< .07182 .10217 AS At Of U S .000 .031 .002 032 .002 .COl .000 .COl .001 .031 R.O. lNCOHE PER/CAP .oo.us .01$47 .02193 .01S97 .00261 (11671 .00968 . 00)06 . .Ctei'S OF I.A3tQ MU m:)FR!ETU!'S .00175 .01016 .02890 .03219 .01629 .ocm .OO!S4 .00201 .0047Z .C06'6 OURJ.BLES .00118 .00642 .02559 .028<1 .01569 .0024.2 -.com .00142 .00319 .00406 .O!lC67 .00173. .00331 .00379 .00261 O CC5l .Oii037 .00059 .00153 .0()239 tit" .03602 .11252" .2H66 24M9 .19912 .06879 01158 .0Hi60 05495 1061 5 K INIUS .OC002 .00008 .0031 8 .Cil020 .ODC15 .OCCG' .COCO! .OC003 .CCOC4 COOT CCtul'RtiCtiC>I .OOJ.C.9 .03l
PAGE 186

.. : Table E-10: Gii? BY FliW. 0W10 Tj181_ FOR EAST CEKTAAL STP 4. (81LLJCNS rK OIAfNEO 1592 US OOLV..ttSRtCCU:JL 'ArTH 'IN.IJE TOll< (;liP TOT/t AUTOS AA'O A.RX & HS\.0 EO. OTHER O!RI .00000 .01188 0 0000 .00000 .01188 35 1 86 .33S90 .01596 .26792 .3 0 194 .29448 .00746 .00000 AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 2000 fC.ST .20134 .09072 .C0534 .C0602 .00252 .Ol4S8 .00551 .00224 .ooon .00586 .01362 .00612 .oom .00788 .01467 .01269 .00801 ,QZ7Z2 .000 1 6 .00000 .01435 .00000 .00000 .01435 .25481 .25250 .00231 .20650 .20134 .19240 .00094 .1100!10 200< f
PAGE 187

AN A NALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL Tabl e E-11: S\!Pa 9Jt'J'WI.Y T.QE TREASURE C(l.IST STEP 4 (TA&E I R fRN:ES JN PAAhili$S) TOli\1 Olll L0VHfiT ( 3 ) ow t fE 1.6 TOT PRlV N F EHPLYT{ 2 ) 9R. IE EHI' l IJS Gil? PCEPIUCE 1510:< 92 (4} REI.t OISP Hitai (4} (3) fO;> AS 1 or us 1999 FCST 1.124 .COl 1.095 .COl .040 .OS! 0() 1 043 02.9 .02' .622 .oco ""' FCST 4 .291 .003 .003 .185 17 1 .C02 .l"i .089 .089 L6C.S .110! 2<)01 F'CST 6 .761 .004 6 .6C9 .ons .321 .301 004 .25 1 .22S 126 Oll zooz FC$1 6. 739 .01)4 6 .515 .005 .342 .335 .CO< .281 .Z1l .lZil 4 742 .002 Z 1.1nless Qttter.1se 1ndicated lind PtR CAPIT/. ton!) ;$ art f n TltJUS/..'!OS Cf' RJ.I. OJI.VRS. .11CX TO A'IAflA&. TAStES SUPER $UMI..':I.Y TABlE :..liD RfRNCE LIST ...... TJ.BlE 1 SIJ)IW;RY TAStES f'tQ fRJVA.T StCTOKS . T.ti3LE 2 TABLE & ... .. . ..... TABlE 3 P!KSO!W. IOC!li Tlo!L ........................ T:.BLE 4 INP 8Y FJNJ.t lntl, (f' CW.IIim 92S, .. To\Sl( 5 1 0 OETiill FCST .JOS .000 .532 .CO!l .070 .lOS .llOl .C93 .069 .081 l .659 .O!ll 202S FCST .987 00 1 .193 .COl .092 .ISS 00 1 145 058 OS8 4.246 .001 2()3S FCST 1.136 .001 910 .001 .108 .2S2 .001 .230 . 103 .ll9 4.672 .001 E -12

PAGE 188

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T ab l e E-12: SlltXAAY fOR PIUVAf !\CtiF.WC SECTOOS FOR m:A.StR! ClAST STEP 4, (OET/lll 1/l&.E f REf iN Pkl!EUS-(10 SEC1, 49 S(:T)) 1599 2COO 2001 2002 201>3 20!1-1 2010 2015 2025 203S FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FeS T Ftsl PRIVATE HCIIFAA.If wt.O'rnEttr {!)I TttruSA1lJS fX PECl'tE) !VIii ITS DY SOORCE: CF TOTAl. OtPLY>:UT (7 18) 1.095 .<:.216 6.609 6.515 3 426 . 5:!3 .OOl .S3Z .1913 .920 ltfTErdiED!ATE (7.19) .215 .921 1.4"95 1.'59 .1&1 -.147 .0112 1 52 .23S .267 LOCM. WlSUH (1.20) .191 .691 .851 .7G9 .164 513 147 .409 .54-I .612 GOYT O&wil> (7 .21> .002 .00< .ODS .010 .000 .ooz .031 .001 .014 018 UIVEST Pt:rm (8.22) .GI1 .193 .Z86 .248 .056 IV .016 .028 .039 .043 EXP US/W(l01.0(8.23l -.013 -.003 057 106 l:Je 165 .056 .001 .O:Je .Ol8 EXP MlillliG ((!,24) ,[()] Ol5 .028 02 2 .003 -.021 .014 .00& .017 .022 EY.OGEllOUS ( 8 .25 ) .65 1 2 .418 3.9!1 4.173 Z .s-13 .<42 ();4 .051 .089 .110 CC6TS Alii> SElllli3 P.:UCES R.ATIV E TO iHE U.S.: SEU .Jtll PRICE (9.25) .ocoao .00146 .00165 .00163 .00077 00052 00048 .0004< 00039 F.V:TCR Jf.MS (9. 21) .00037 .()0114 .00209 .00264 .002 3! .00092 . 00122 .OOUO -.00116 -.00106 '""'" (9.28) .Oil052 .00189 .ooJa .00384 .03:! 06 .00139 .1!0070 1!0063 .OO!IS3 .00!143 FUEl ( 9 .29) .00000 .00000 .00000 .0000 0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .coooo .00000 .0:1!100 OJIITJ.l <10.30) .G0054 .0\1113 .OOlS S .00161 .00106 ,G002Z . .00026 .00022 ltiTM O JIIPIJfS(ll}, 3l) 00025 .cross ,0{1}2!> .00160 0014t .O!IC67 ,QO'J56 .OOOS4 .00050 000>15 otliER Y.+'JUj)Jl.ES: Rt. PROD NFS (10.32) .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00031 .00074 .00!173 .00075 .00070 REt. PMF tcFS n 0. 33> .OOOlZ .COOS> .00152 -.00181 -.00159 -.00049 .00107 .C0106 .00102 .001)94 LJ.BCR 1t.'TEKSTYU1.34) 00002 .QOOOS .00000 .00014 .O!lOlS 00018 .00007 .00002 .00010 .00013 IUT Af>J (11.35) .00000 .110000 .oocoo .oneco 0 0000 ,0000:1 ,000!10 .00000 .ocooo .OOCOD EXP Cf' U .S. (ll.36} .001 .003 .006 .003 .000 .000 .000 .001 .001 RPOoSS/I:aWlO 01.37) .ooo 000 .1101 .llOi -.001 .000 .000 .oco .000 .000 11\'S W.4SETKlUS<12 38) .021 .045 .089 .009 .084 .035 . 0 1 9 019 .020 .02 1 H lll l MIX Jlllli (lZ,l9} .00!188 .00316 .. 00521 . 00552 -.00018 .000 3 00012 . 00011 lll Slll!OKS Cf CWYUED 1592 OOU.AAS: DEKA.-.o (12.-10) .0516< .30774 .50769 .4935tl .24850 03084 .08S37 .13ns .17191 IHP(A!TS (12.41) ,03941 .18196 .31713 .:ll192 .17018 .00385 .03631 .05315 .C6221 .0741:2 snr SUP?t Y <13.42> .0302A .12578 .190SS .1 8!64 ,1}7832 .001?0 0490S .08461 .10968 .12949 EXPORTS <13.43) ,00130 0032'7 O i 055 O l328 .Ol2S7 .0057<11 .01438 .02056 .023Z3 INTR.A.REG TRO <13.44) .00003 .00185 .1!0353 .ooza2 .()0024 .00222 .00243 .0!1694 .00931 .01142 X00Et>OUS Plltt1{13. 45) .04073 .22305 .45351 .25843 .04-514 .COZ60 .00 199 .00191 .00064 OUTPUI' {14 .45) .01000 .34740 .61.,9 .6213l .32J70 0'3!134 ,Q&,_q(JJ 10703 GR?(VAt ADDE0) ( 1A,47) .03873 .1638S .3216a .33492 .l5S70 .00396 .oms .06451 .08500 .09918 IN tllltlCtiS O F !OilX'Al S 'S: ),!JliE&SAJ. orsa (lVlS> .04021 .13470 .22946 .23S62 .ISm .01111 .0154 1 .00446 .02303 .04422 E -13

PAGE 189

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 13: etPLOYI'!Hff Ti\&. fOR 11iASI.Rt COAST STP ( I N THJJSA1a5 OF 1199 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2010 201$ 202$ 203$ fCST fCST FCST FCST FCST fCST fC>r FCST fCST FCST t\1...111! FKME .QC.S .181 .S74 .526 .l.CO 0 1 S .ooa .04 1 .05i .osz AS A S OF U S .000 .001 .00) .003 .001 .000 ,(!Ol) .oco .000 .000 OORI.SLES .. 001 .161 .544 m !33 Oil .005 .OlS .042 .031 HCWUIWM.ES .OC6 .020 .030 .021 .Oil$ . 013 .003 .011 015 O l S LGg(l 4 ,035 6 .035 $ 98.9 ) 2<6 ,4Si .OH .4<6 ,73 5 .868 AS At OF U.S. 001 .... .035 .00$ .m .000 .000 .000 .001 .001 001 .... .oos .008 .ODS .001 001 .000 .001 .001 CCt.'T ctNSTRUCTIQII 137 L&.il 2.6$0 2 630 1 .931 '"' ,070 ,017 ,007 .016 T!W&PCRT PU B UT 0 1 3 0$5 .oao "" .019 0!0 .C42 054 ,ll$l "'' INS. R .034 .381 .$$1 .173-.064 0&1 .COl .03S .css .052 Ri:fAlt TRIW 12 .440 .EOl .>34 .202 229 006 09; 143 W!!CtSolt TAAE 013 .066 .097 .oos 034 . 000 ,OJ& .023 .02) SEI\'i!CES .762 !.513 !.959 1 .839 1. 0 1 5 34 1 .042 .296 .443 .>34 IGIU /iCQ/FrS!t $\'C .01!6 .031 ll4i .0<) .01 2 .030 .DiS .000 .010 016 TOTAl. OO'IU!Iil1fJIT m .01S .1S2 .224 .245 .218 154 .113 .19< .216 AS A l Oi U S . 000 .oco .COl .COl ,COl .Oil! .DOl .COl .DOl .on ST LOC"'L GO't"f .029 .075 1SZ .zz .z..,; .218 .154 .173 .194 .216 !=tO. 00/T. Cl!JL .000 .ceo .oco .coa .coo 000 .000 .ooa .oco .000 ft:D. OC/If. 11lll. .000 .000 .000 .(!Ol) .coo .000 .000 .coo .000 .000 EHPLOl')lftfr .000 .oco .000 .coa .(!Ol) .000 .000 .coo .000 .000 AS ll. ': O F U S .000 .000 .coo .000 ,(!Ol) .000 .000 .000 .000 .0:10 TOiAJ. EMA.OYI1bll 1.124 4.,9! 6 161 6 .7J; 3 672 314 7 0S .961 1. 136 AS o\ 1 Of U S. 001 .003 .004 .... .002 .000 .000 .000 .001 .031 P!fULAT l C .622 uoa 3 .254 -4.142 5 .186 4 .So73 3 .231 3 .659 4 .246 4.672 10 \ 1 Of u s .ono .DOl .COl .002 .002 .002 .COl .001 .COl .001 E -14

PAGE 190

AN A NAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPA CTS T able : PEI\SCtYAl lllctriE lA&.E FCR lR/.StRE COAST STEP 4, ON OF IOONAJ. OOI.LAAS) 1999 2C0 3 2C01 2002 2003 2004 2010 2il15 202S 2035 FCST FCST Fcsr FCST Ftsr FCST f'CST FesT fCST FCST w.sE AXO SAl. OlSB .04245 .2S632 .16783 .Q218a .0121 9 .00904 .00097 .05751.) ffiCfRIETO?..S UWIE., .00000 .OOC03 .00000 .1!0000 .ODCOO .00000 .00!100 .00000 .00000 .occoo 0TiiR It.'IX+tE .00305 .03%6 .06757 .0425< .00025 .00163 .0055'8 .01736 .02702 OF PtRSCtiAt. lNCJ:Ii 8Y ?l.!\CE OF RESJOOIC: 'i'OT I.Jo!CRo PReP IIIC .CS!S l .U!II94 .32383 .21035 .02213 .. 01036 .01802 .04803 .08452 AS A %'Of U.S. .001 .000 006 .006 .000 .000 .000 .000 .coo .ooo LESS SOC JNSR 00 .00052 .01206 .02067 .02192 .01437 .00188 .COlDS .C0378 .002ES .ODSOO FLUS RI:SIO NJJ 00148 .oom .00845 .CC640 03442 .00024 .C0034 .C0020 .00066 -.00100 PLUS .C0513 .013$2 .02870 .C4423 .05202 .062?1 C$33 .09267 .14078 PUJS TR6XSFER PAY 00083 .OOS&l 00708 01)237 0381.3 .01874 .01922 .02162 .02766 11<1))111 .00070 .17144 .30070 .335<3 .25172 .00979 .06296 .10500 .16531 .26175 AS A f OF U.S . 00 1 .002 .004 .004 .000 .001 .001 .001 .COl 00 1 LESS TAXES .C0736 .02530 .04399 .04832 .03495 .01017 .C0528 .0120 0 .0191\li .03170 O ISPOSA!L! PER INC .04335 141614 .25611 .28712 .2:l68S .Oi96Z .05068 .09300 .14545 .230C4 PCEPRIC Irl!lX-92 .02852 .08609 .Z2Sl7 .2701Jl .24363 !2521 .ll64SO 1!6911 00755 .10342 RW 015 PER Hltttit .02653 .0&944 .12612 .128Ctll W L.4Wl k'ID lll((t(E: I'IAXUF'ACTURE .00149 .01305 .04159 .D-1007 -.00178 .C0106 .00244 .00517 .00693 CU'-'8l S .00100 .01152 .03901 .o:ms 01431 .00162 .. 00078 .00204 .00417 .0!1542 t;(t(lUAASl .00049 .00150 .00252 .00272 .09153 -.00017 .. 00021 ,00()40 .00100 .0()1$1 Kt.XllfAC'Tl.fR .C.$749 .25257 .26477 1759;1 O lll69 01462 .00025 .00093 .05785 lllNlXG .COBOl .00003 .00014 .1!001 5 .0!1010 .OOCOl . 00002 .00001 .03!101 .O!ICOl ctM CO'S'TROCT!ON .00508 .05501 .095:;8 .10271 .07559 .01550 -.oozes .00164 -.00087 .00015 l'JW1SPORT PUB t!f .00101 .00397 .00622 .00635 .003$0 .oon .00232 .00349 .00492 .00565 FlUAiiC. HIS,+ R .0018-t .010!.8 .01648 .Oi948 .00662 -.00064 00023 .03119 .00248 Rf.TAJL TRio .00317 .01121 .01707 .Oli67 .01001 .00221 00037 00023 .00 194 .00446 I,Hl. ESid.E .00104 .00440 .00766 .00795 .0!1463 -.00043 .. 00140 .. 00010 .00079 .00149 SERVICES .00504 .07455 10497 .10858 .07048 . 00259 00505 .00752 .02337 .04413 .0002.1 .00101 .00168 .00115 .OGC1 6 .00391 -.00056 .00041 .00026 T O TIJ.. .00252 00743 .01400 .01905 011\li3 01322 .00532 .00733 .01224 .01973 S T A};O GOYT .00236 .00693 .01331 .01819 01Ja6 .03547 ,0()75(1 .01242 .01993 FED GOVT CI\'ILJAil .00016 .00045 .00073 .000!6 .00067 .00029 .0301 6 .00017 . Ctl0l8 .00019 rol EDIIT KlLITAA'f .OI!OO!l .OCOOD .oooco .00000 .00000 .03000 .00000 .00000 .ocooo '""' .ooooo .OCOOO .00003 .00000 00000 .ooooo .ocooo .00000 '00000 .00000 tr O .O'S TIN m:IFRJETCRS JllXII W.S !!Eoll tSSED INTO OTHER lOCOI E -15

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15: GitP 8Y CE)W(l TJ;St ftR TRiASU! C(II.ST STEP 4 (BILLlCNS Of CK41" 1992 US OCle.J.,6JlS.RC()f\CllEtl \I,'JlH YPL.U :.00) TOTN..(,RP l'OT:.l COliSUXPTJCif AUi'OS AXO PAATS n.RN & KSE'rlO 0 t (XI!l & 8\'EIVGES & SttJ$ GASOLINE l Orl Ft.Q. Oll & COt4. OTHER u:t.OURAStE S >ICIJSI!<; HSEMLO HE.ILTH SERVICES OTHER StR\'ICES TOTIL FlXED IINSf RSlWHllo1. Rf.SIO!NTlAl. PROO. OUR, EQUIP C81 HT I 'I A MISC TOTN. GCI'iER!Cmtl fED GO\' 11JUTAAY fED GIJ\' CJYtLJAii GOV TOTJ.t E:XPCNTS X.OOHtlt6 E:

XE ti CUS EXi' TOTAL il'(flw.TS TOT GRJ> S Y VAl J.t{) TOT PR! V N F Y N. NJ TOT GO\' TOT r .r.noro 1599 FCST .03964 .0281 .00207 0!1242 .00103 .0061 7 .0!1222 .0!1104 .00006 .0312.5 .0023!1 .00257 .0013S .000$8 .otl505 .01321 .00295 .00242 .00785 .00003 .OCIJ .00142 00000 .00QI)3 .00142 .03976 .04073 .00097 0429l .01873 .00091 .00000 2000 rrn 18624 .0992A .00737 .oossa .00365 .02157 .00787 .003'19 .00020 .00369 .00!09 .00946 .00503 .00!13 .02021 05580 .01049 .OlC67 .03471. .OC01 7 .O!lCOO .00372 .00000 .00000 00372 .Z2l63 .22305 <101'2 .19431 .1E0:24 .18386 00238 .00000 2001 = .326S) .1:J328 .01004 .01152 00485 .0286$ 0 1057 .0()412 .0002$ .00670 01!06 .01187 .00638 .00197 024il .oe934 .01373 .0171.8 .0581 3 .00020 .00000 .00764 .00000 .00000 .00764 .l<2S34 00309 .l29JO J2653 32 168 .OC49S 00000 2002 FCST .34194 .00942 0 1062 .llo.t-40 .0:2618 .OC914 .00389 .00020 .0-.01345 .00933 .OOSJS .00344 .08283 .01228 .01617 .054.38 .00017 .00000 .01130 .00000 .DOODC .0!131} .44558 .45351 00783 .32340 .13482 .00112 .1!0000 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 201)) FCST .16354 .06054 .0043$ .C0.170 .ll0184 .Oll$8 .00429 .00 106 .ll003S .0085$ .OH5S .0023& .ll0162 .Dil603 .0(>3;3 .02711 .00461 .0052$ .017 85 .COOOI .DDODD .012S4 .00000 .DCOOO .01254 .(SS43 0131)4 .18275 .16354 .ISS70 .00764 .000110 2004 FCST .<10301 014l6 00 195 . 00241 .00111 00563 00223 .00110 .OCC03 006 1 2 .00796 .00496 002 1 9 .00611 .01211 . 02090 00376 .00385 013:27 0001 7 .001 .01122 .ocooo .00000 .01122 .03 136 . 01479 .00433 .00301 00396 .Dil691 0 00!10 OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 2010 FCST .M241 .&5745 .00201 .002]7 .00129 .00562 .00244 .0016S .C0007 .C043>J .Cl .COS31 .C0242 .C0929 .00370 002"' .00016 .CODE
PAGE 192

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS nble E l&: Slf'tR SUiflARY TAet.E FtR 00\MY STEP 4 (T.4l f RFERKCtS H I PAANTHES!S) TOTAl '1.0YHSIT (3) 9!P t Cf US TOT PRJ 'I IIF EXP1. YT(2) PR HF EHP t Cf US (C'r{.).iN 9ZS) (5) JM(Jl(E (4) PERS m: t Cf U S OiSFOSAaE UICCtl (4) PCE -PRJC JtllX-92 (4) REAL O ISP ItlX+ (<) (3) PO? AS lOF US 1999 FCST 431 .000 .418 .000 .016 .020 .ooo .Oli .Oll 011 .267 .000 2000 FCSi' !.606 .001 1.571 .001 .06 9 .068 ,001 .069 .034 .038 .000 2<101 FCST 2.65< .002 2 .58! .002 .1Z3 1Z3 .002 .104 .068 .060 1.420 .001 2002 FCST 2.097 .002 2.S91 .002 .130 133 .002 ,11$ lOS .063 2 102 .001 2003 FCST 1 .626 .001 1.506 .00 1 .072 l ee .CO! .099 .044 2.365 .COl HOYE for all tablts: lo are i.n TiiOOSM!DS of pecple OOLLA.It cor.cepts a r e in BllllCttS (f' CHAJED 92S unl ess otherwise ind i cated anc:l PER WITA concepts are fn TIWSm'JS Of RA1. OO!.UAS. WOO: TO A'/Ali.A9LE T.ABL Sl!P!l S\!I'W
PAGE 193

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS E l7: SI.H'VJtY TABlE FOit PRIVA'TE HOOf.AAtl SiCTMS OOlt(JY STEP 4 S Cf Jl!))l[) ANi> iTS CE:CtHPOSTitrl BY stfJRCE (If te' : EHPL )1CltT <7 .18) .41 8 1.571 2 $ 8 1 2 .591 l.SC6 !54 022 .182 .ZS6 .295 lKTEil."'EOIATE (J 19) .104 413 .696 m .4G9 .OSi' 004 .06' .09"4 .106 LOCAl. Cet&IM (J .20) !Oi .369 .546 .521 .282 .112 .032 .112 .13S 16' ocm D'\.1;.'11) (7 .ll) .001 .002 ..... .Oll6 .Qil6 .003 .oao .ll02 ..... .005 JWI$ 1 ACTYTY <8.22) .024 09 145 .13$ .oss 044 .01 0 .009 0 1 3 0}.5 EXP US/WGRL0(8.23) 005 012 .026 .043 C54 .06$ 023 .COl .007 .006 tXP MUliREG (8 ,24) .012 .CS2 .098 oss .css .001 .001) .011 03 1 ()38 XCGNJUS (8,25) 175 .6S8 1.118 1 166 i'5 1 .119 . 018 o-22 .030 037 OJSTS "-"0 SELlllfG. PRICES fO THE U .S : SO.llKG PRICE (9 .26) .coon .ll00$1 t00i8 .00071 .00034 00021 00011 00015 .OG01 2 F.t.CTOft (9'.27) .C0043 .00082 COlO$ .00094 .000<0 .OC039 . 00035 OOOJl . oooze L>.SOR <9.28) .00023 .00070 .00126 .CG153 .ClTN. OO.JD) .oaooo .00019 .00042 .ccoss .C0061 .OOOlol .0!1006 . 00007 00006 .OOOOS IUTRtiEO Jt."PUTS(l0. 31) .00009 .00026 .00049 .llCOSS .C0050 .00033 .O!llnO 00011 COOl S .000 3 OniA: 'IAAIJ.SLES: Rt PAtti WG 00. 32) .oocoo .00000 .ocooo .OC0 3 0 .00009 .00020 .00019 .00020 .00019 m. PRO! WG {l!I,Jl) .00009 00326 .IIC.o47 .OCOS9 C005Z .tl0018 .00030 .0002:7 .0002S .00023 L.c&fl: fNTNSTYO 1.34 ) .COCOl 00002 0001)4 .COOG7 00001 .00002 .ooooo .oooa2 .0!1003 IIJ!.T JIJ)J C11.3S) 00000 .00000 .ccooo .COOCC .00000 .ocooc .00000 .cooco 00000 HP l OF U S Ol.JS) .coo .0!11 .002: .002 D ill .O.lil .000 .ceo .000 .000 01.37) .coo .000 .030 .000 .000 .000 .000 .coo .ooo .coo A\'G .007 0 1 7 .034 .0<0 .036 .016 t\37 . cos 003 002 lffill KIX tNlX 02. 39) ,00023 !100!!3 .00143 .ll0 1S7 .C0106 00036 .0!1007 OO!IC4 . 00004 OilC03 W Bllllet."S Of CI'.AJIIED 1992 OOLLAAS: ""'"0 .02831 .USS4 .20261 .1212 0 .0002i .01910 .036E8 .04507 .05419 HJRTS 02. 41) .01306 .05651 1NJ3 C 6 704 .oona 007'0 .012.35 .01, 1 0 .01762 SELF SUF9' .. Y 015<'9 .05873 ,(15$87 .0$416 00701 .01171 .02433 .CJOS8 .03717 E XPC07$ m.l . 001).1.') 00112 ,(11)140 110092 OQ.I$4 00146 ,00405 .00551 ll'lTAAREG Ut& <13.'4) .00132 .00559 .01123 .OU19 .C0662 .COO<$ .0018$ .004$9 .00752 EXOG!Ji!JJS P .:WK(l3. 4$) .01129 .C6!a2 .12129 .129SO .0781 3 .01331 .00120 .0012) .00061 WTI'\IT 04. LS) .OV4i .12::511 .22599 ZJlM .00191 .03416 .04521 .OSl-12 GRP(VAl .01533 .06757 .12073 .06794 .01059 .02086 .DV44 .OJ2J2 IN BllLICfiS OF NC+illfN.. S S: WJ.GE&S"L. OJSS (14,,8) .0153' .CS218 .0921$ .09856 .067Si .C06SO 00613 .00321 .01110 0(0 E -18

PAGE 194

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T ab i e E-18: EXPLO\'WIT COOIITY STEP 4 W I TI-OOS"''I O S Cf PECPLE) 1999 20DO 2001 21102 20D3 2004 2.010 2.01 S 2025 2035 FCST FCST FCST ftSl ;csr FCST ftSl ftSl fCST FCST 007 0 7 3 m .20D .069 ,021 .0)4 .019 .Ol2 .021 f.C At or u.s. .000 .000 .001 .001 .000 .00 0 .OOD .ODD .DOO .000 OORA&.ES .0!13 .t'ISi 1 9 3 .182 .061 .01 6 .0!12 .014 .016 014 llllitc.RA..6 .00 .<111 .01 9 .018 .008 .O O S .001 .O!IS OC6 .006 .411 l.L98 2 359 2 .391 1.<437 133 .OZ!i 163 .233 .276 AS A X rF U S .000 .001 .002 .D01 .OilO .OOD .OOD .00 0 000 lillfU.$ .OliO .001 .002 .002 DO! 000 .000 .00() .000 .000 oowr .046 m "'' .617 052 .024 .00 4 .007 TRNlSP(Rl +PU3 UT .007 .030 .041 .012 .D20 .00! .011 .022 .022 .018 fWJ.iltE. WS.+ RE .019 .14:) .216 .2a4 .0$8 .m5 -.001 0 1 5 0 9 .020 RETAil 1RAE m .353 .300 .11!7 059 .011 .021 .037 .045 Wt!Ct.!S,IL TAADE .010 .D43 .016 .073 .039 012 .001 OD9 .012 0 1 2 SER\'ICES .260 .595 .e6l .831 .SOl 100 .00 6 .093 13a .169" AGRl/FO.:!/FJStl S:\'C .002 .007 .012 Oil .005 DOO .000 .002 .C02 .003 iOTN.. GOV1U.t1EKT .013 .034 .071 .106 .!20 107 .056 .056 .OSI .065 AS A I Of U.S .coo .000 .000 .ODO .001 .llOO .000 .DOO .coo .OOD ST AAO LOCJot EOVT .013 .004 071 .106 .1 2 0 10 7 .D56 .D56 .OSI .065 Fm. GOVT. tl'/1, .DOD .000 .000 .ODD .OilO .000 .DOO DOO .OilO .000 rtD rr;rr. KILl. ,0!11) 000 .0!10 000 000 .OilO .OOD .OilO .ODO .000 F.WC EH?WfflEHT .030 .oc o .ODO .DOO ODO .000 .COD .ooc .ooo .000 AS A X ffi U .S. .ODD 0 0 0 .ODD .coo .000 .ODO .OOD .000 .000 .000 TOTAl ENPLO"l'}'.[Uf .431 1.605 2.612 2 .697 !.626 -.04 1 .003 .231 .Jl3 .361 AS At Of U S .OD O .001 .OD2 .002 .001 .ODO .000 .ODO .DOO .000 POPUL/t.Tlttl .26 7 .690 1.42.0 Z.lOZ 2.:16$ 2 056 LOSS 1.094 1.164 1.321 AS At Of U S. .000 .000 .DOl .001 .001 .DOl .DOO .DDO .000 .000 E -19

PAGE 195

AN A NALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA H IGH SPEED RAIL Ta'!:lle 19: P!!OOXAL. lNCCtl TA& f.OO 8ro. ,l[(l STEP 4 SAL Dl$B .01640 .OSS35 .09831 .1GS9(t .oms .01237 00416 .00512 .0142<1 .02597 PRt9.:!1ETCRS .. .ocooo .011000 .00000 .1!00:10 .IXIOCO .OOC!lG .OOCO.l 001)]1} .otlOOO .00000 OTIS. IAOR l"C()I(E .oms .01076 0 1876 .00051 .0004& .0024.2 .0!1438 '""' CfuYAiiCN 0!' PERSOII.:.L. INCCf1 B Y P LACE O f RS!OKCE: TOT tA&:a. .01895 06611 .11707 12553 .oa;c.s .01287 00432 .OD7S S .016156 .03281 1\S A t OF U S .000 .001 .002 ooz .001 .ceo .000 .000 .coo 0 0 0 Lts$ SOC !NSR Ctli .00126 .00427 .00326 .OOSS6 .0009 6 001)37 .001)40 .00112 lle FLU S RESIO AOJ 00172 .005S5 01C'37 OlliS .00674 ,00134 .00014 O!U.t6 .OOJZ7 .OC659 P LUS O l \1 Ufl.REin' 0 Gll 9 .0031 7 .00678 .01051 .Ol2EO .01249 0 1034 .Oll5 1 .01377 .02 1 80 P LUS TAA!\$f(R PAY 00049 .00<$$ 00404 00182 .00326 .00921 .00802 .oom .OOSOt .013il0 P R.S01Mt JliOOKE .0201 2 .0679$ .IZ310 .13331 .10759 .1>3'97 .01455 .02m .04259 .07127 ;.sA l O F U S .000 .001 .002 .002 .001 .000 .000 .co o .000 LE'SS TAXES .01041 .01868 .02058 0 1541 .OOC% .00291 .00513 .Oce>& OlSPOSJ.SLE I tiC .0171 0 .057SS 10442 .11813 .mss .00117 .01358 .02485 .0.3746 .06261 JNJX 9Z .OlN.9 0 3355 .CB&l7 .10799 .09908 .05399 0 1469 . otm .. 0142" . 01$84 RU1t OIS PER .01143 .0381.3 .ossss .063<5 _,_ 01282 ,0178{1 .02093 .OZ6l3 f;$ A l OF U $ .001 .COl .em COl 000 .000 .coo .000 .000 R O l"Cttt 0037' .01491 0 1857 .ouss 003 . 02118 00$92 03332 . 00263 . 01>216-BR!:NCf.CMN CF t.ASCR A1IJ Pw.!PfUETOl' S hi!>E: KAXUf ACTLR .!II!C6to .0043!1 0 1305 01295 .00594 .C0016 .OOO:JS .OOCS7 .00178 .00234 MAS lES .Cilo.t3 .OOJ64 ouss 01166 .005 1 3 .COOl S .OCGN .00 010 .Oill38 .00!14 .00021 0 0! 1 7 .00128 .00!181 ,CO!I!IZ .OilOll .00017 .00040 .ooo I.OCAI. OC/ff .001 00 ,00324 00639 .00684 .ooas-s .00647 CQ-210 ,{111273 01)43 2 .00728 f!O GO'IT CIVtLI.ll .COOlS .00023 .00040 .00:147 .00037 .00014 .coooa 0 0006 .OOCOS . 00!103 F() GQ','l tHllTJI.RY .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .OCll .OCO:IO .occoo .00000 '"" .1!0000. .00000 .GCODO .00000 .00000 .00000 .00003 .00000 .00000 .00000 Jr Al.l. O .O'S THEK PliO?R!ET&ii:S 111001 W.S e N tl[flti ]t: TO OTMER Lil&JR lKCO!CE. E 20

PAGE 196

Table E -20: GR.P SY Fltw. TAJ!U FtR. COUNTY STEP 4 { BllllOKS f:E Oti\UIED 1992 US \'All AllO!O) TOTN.. lllP AUros "" 0 PN!TS & HSi!i.O EQ. onn Ol.mt.ES F-OCO & &VER.eGES Q.OllUti:i & SHCES GASOLHI & OIL FU;;t. OIL S COV.. OTHER M:IIClRII!I..ES ltl.ISIII3 KS:1il0 O?ERAT!Oii TRI.)($P()RTAY J(ltl IE'Id.TH SRVlCES OTHER SERVICES TOT!ot FlX0 !WIEST RSltefl'JM.. Klli ilESIOEiiTIN.. m. C lR. C.UJP. CBl liE.T IVA tiiSC GA:JIVAGR9f0 iOTM. f OCII IIU.ITAR'f F rr.JI CIVILJNI STAT/LOCI.t 00'/ TOTAL EXPeRTS XCGii!OUS 5XP E11003EillUS EXP TOTAl. T O T GRI> BY VN_ ;1){) TOT PIUV HF VM. 'D TO'i GO\' TO'i FA.o.M VAL ADDED 1 999 FCST .0!575 .01151 .001179 .00092 .coooo .00234 .00084 .C0042 .00002 .00053 .00099 .0310S .OOO!S .00038 .00227 .00569 .OOISS .03314 .00002 .00000 .01!065 .0000!1 .ccooo 00065 0 1 21& .01!29 .COOS! .Ol57S .01533 .OQC42 .0!11100 2000 FCST .0685& .03908 .0027S .00320 .001;)7 .com .00292 .00141 .0001!8 .00157 .oozg, .00370 .00193 ,OOOS9 .0052.0 .022S8 .00556 .00397 ,01305 .0001 0 .00000 .<10171 .tlCOO!I .0000!1 .00171 .OSSJS .0&182 .00456 .06119 .057&7 .00109 .00000 "'" FCST .12300 .0&002 .00 00487 .002<17 .01203 .004-4$ .00211 00011 .0029S .OOS13 .00649 .0028& .00181 .01222 .00823 .00669 .02290 .00017 .00000 .03356 .0!11100 .01)000 00$5 .IJ01 2 .12129 .00683 .10920 .IZlOO .1Z074 .00226 .00000 2002 FCST .12978 .0&196 .00426 .011483 .00200 .onaz 00442 .00197 .00010 .00091 .00633 .00625 .00272 00265 .0116$ .03660 .aon4 .00 .02220 .COOlS .00000 .oosas .00000 .00000 .oos::s 13577 .12350 .o-3727 .11110 .12976 .12640 .00038 .00000 AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 2\IG3 FCST .0717& .04007 .00257 .1!0287 .00119 .0069S .00262 .C0104 .00!106 .003SS .00572 .00278 .00146 .Dl312 .00524 .01658 .00384 .00210 .OOiSS 00007 .00000 .00611 .00000 .00000 .00611 .07976-.00163 .01123: .07176 .05794 .00583 .occoo 2004 FCST .OOO!S .COOJO . 00029 00038 00019 . 000&9 00036 . 00033 . 00002 .002&9 .00372 .000% -.00043 .00294 002!1 00541 . 00199 . oou:o .00342 .00004 00000 .00549 .00000 .00000 .Oil832 .OIJJI .00438 00142 .003&5 .0004.') .03341 .OI:IQOO OF FLORJDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 2010 FCST .012<4 .00025 .00035 .Oil0!8 .00032 .00025 .COOOl .C0134 .00253 .00080 .00037 .ll028& .1!019$ .UOOJO .00003 0000& .00021 .00002 .00000 .00301 .00000 .0(1000 .00301 .00472 .00141 .00331 0 0760 .01244 0 105-9 .0016$ .00000 2 015 FCST .1)2271 .01762 000&1 00085 .00036 .00163 ,(!0071 .00042 .OL'IOC.Z .00149 .00282 .03140 .00061 .00339 .00331 ,00497 .00068 .00068 .0!1340 .00000 .OCOO!I .00312 .00000 .00000 .00312 .00933 0 0 120 0 1 281 .02217 .020&5 .00191 .O!ICO!I FCST .02065 .ono76 .0!1113 .001)46 .00200 .00089 .001149 .00002 .co t6a .00313 .00171 .011072 .00355 .00401 .00585 00067 .00105 .COUS .I!OOCS .OOOQO .00342 .00000 .00000 .00342 011120 .00127 .01JG2 .014 14 .02954 .00209 .00000 2035 FCST .OOOE6 .02670 .0010& .00158 .00273 .00122 .OOilte .00212 .00382 .oom .001193 .004Sl .ocm .00619 .0(11:198 .001()1 .OM17 .00005 .00000 .00000 .00000 .O()IU .01625 .00031 .01544 .01646 .03486 OJnl .00253 .00000 E 21

PAGE 197

AN A NALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TOOle E 21: SIJ,II.KA!r! TASL F(Jt !)I.DE ctUflY ST(P 4 { i/.3LE I REFtROICES tN PAAENTtSES) TOT.ti. EH?lOVYOIT (J) EH? t OF U S TOT PM'/ IIF EtA. YT(2) PR Jlf &.P t OF US 1>-!P ((fiAliiEO (5) P!RSO'Al. ltf.Cf'E X 9 2 (Jo) REAl OJSP INC()( () F'CPIAATIOII (3> 1999 FCST m .0!10 .2<19 .000 .012" .012 .000 .on .oos .001 .182 .coo 2000 FCST !.08l .DOl 1.057 00 1 .050 .OCl .034 016 .023 .000 2001 FCST 2.c m 001 l, 95'3 .COl .097 .oeo 001 .o&? .045 .039 .9$3 .000 2C02 FCST 2.017 .COl 1.995 .001 1 00 .092 .001 .078 .0&8 l..o44 00 1 2003 FCST L473 .CO! 1.377 .001 o .. .018 .001 06.7 .056 033 1.658 .001 t.'OTE For J'11 taele$ : EH?l0"fl'(00 ,\ art 1 n 'iHCtJSA'IC6 Of OOLLAA. concepts are i n SJlliOiiS Of (K4Jht:O 92S o tn encise ano PER CI.PLT A are in Of RE,!.I. C LIST . l SU'ti'All:Y TABLES fOO PRIVAT E .. TASL 2 EHPL.OYHtm' TASU: & PCPULATI!N . .... ... T.A&.E 3 111(()1( T$.[. . . ....... ... ... TABlE 4 gt Flt\11J. OOW{l S{LL Of CltAHIEO 92l TASt. S 10 SCTCA' D(TA.tl (SEE T.d.StE 2 !XOCX) .... TA.61.,.S 7 1 4 ... .......... . .... TA5l J5 OCtiJP,!,lJCl'W. '"'loGE AATE OOXGr ........... TAELE 16 Kl5CEI.l.AAEC-OS DATA. l.r.s:Jt AAOOOCll\'lf' L . J1A. li'l) 49 SECTCR CA!l CSE T!\91. 2 FOR JKOEX> .. Ti\SI.ES lB-49 2004 FesT .016 .OtiO .071 .000 .0116 .02& 0 31) OIJ .0:!4 .OG6 1 $21 .on1 OF 201 0 fCSl .075 .ono OJS .000 .012 .on .000 .010 .00 1 007 .70 4 .ooo 201S FCST .ZJS .roo .193 .OZ2 .021 .Co-3 .018 .002 .010 .699 .oco 202S FC$ T 32 1 .ceo .278 .000 .030 .034 .0(10 .019 .003 .013 ,775 .000 203S FCS T .J8S ,GOO m .000 0)8 .059 .0!10 .OS! .00& .018 .954 .000 E -22

PAGE 198

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS HIGH SPEED RAIL : StHXAAY fOR PR.tYA.TE -)l!)lFAiiH A:R !llE CO'Jim (OETAIU:D TA&.E f REf Ill PAAEt'.S-(10 SECT,49 SCl)) ,,., 2003 2001 2 ANI) ITS CEOOK?O$llCtl B'f ()F TOTAL a!Fl.Yt!ff (7. 1$> .289 1.057 1.953 1.9SS 1.317 .071 .03S .119 .213 .332 ( 7 19} .C6< .2S< .483 .494 .343 .037 .007 .059 .067 101 L.OOO. CCtiSttt (7 20) .ca; .m .457 .453 .294 .072 .021 .CSl .101 .129 ({JYT OEIV..'iO (7 .2D .coo .001 .002 .002 .ooo .. 1)31 .oco .COl .002 !liVEST N:l'/N ($.22) 015 .C53 .092 .oes 046 .024 .0.34 008 .ou .01 2 EXP IJSJII!! .OCC03 .OC009 .00021 .00031 .OCO:JS .00025 COOOI . 00001 .OCOOl .ccooo lllTR.JoED tNPliTSU0.31) .00004 000!2 .00025 .D-30:>5 .OCOJS .00020 . 110001 01)0&6 .00003 . 00032 O ll!ER V.lRL68\.ES: Ra PiUO NFYi U0.32) .COOJO .coooc .coocc .ocooo .ccooo .occoo .00006 .OC005 .ooocs .00006 Ra-M f'l; (10 33) . 00004 . 00011 . -.OC029 . CCWI .00011 .OOC03 .OOOC8 .00006 LABM .cooco 00001 .00002 00(100 .01100' -.00004 -.00!101 ,0!11!00 .00001} .oooco 11-JlT AOO (11,35) .cooco .coooc .coocc .OCIJOO .ccooo .00000 .00000 ocooc .COOllO .00000 EHP l Cf U S U l,36) .oco .OCl .001 .COl .001 .coo .000 .ooc .oco oco R?too$$/0:,..""\Wii) 0 1 37} .oco .oco .occ .000 .000 .llOO .coo .ooc .oco .000 A\IS I.W11tJUS(12.3S) .003 .008 .<116 .02 .OC27l 010&1 .02040 .02lll 0 1418 .110546 .01!631) .Ol 07t 0 1121 .oms EXOOt:ous ?R00(1 3 .45 ) .00669 .03658 .08950 .05346 .C0853 .C0228 .00221 .00255 .00233 OUTPUT (14.-1-6) ,02C68 .08929 .11801 .18508 .12589 .00523 Cl7ll .00361 .0476< GRP
PAGE 199

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T&!)ie E 23: TAB. coutm' STEP 4. {(N Qf PEOPLEl 19"' 2000 2tll)! 2<)02 2000 200< 2010 2015 2025 2035 FCST FCST !C S T FCST fCST FCST FCS'T FCST FCST FCST KfiWF '.cTtJR .012 .on .192 .193 .066 0 1 2 .005 .1102 .028 0 21 \S A% Cf' lJ.S .000 .000 .001 .001 .000 .coo .000 .coo 0 3 0 .000 IXJmlES .005 .055 .ISS )47 .067 ,co; .CO! .011 .014 013 ll!Sot.RAELES .OOt .022 .038 .035 .018 cos .0(1< o n .014 .014 .271 .980 l.7&1 1.812 1 .Z92 .GS9 .o:;o .177 251 AS A% Cf U .S .000 .001 .002 .002 00 1 .coo .000 .000 .000 .000 t'llNING .000 .001 m .002 .002 .000 .000 .000 .0!10 .00 0 COO CO!ISTROCTJCN .028 .... .592 6 1 3 .5!0 .008 014 .COl .005 .008 TRJ..'iSPORT .. PU!I UT .009 .003 .051 .053 028 .002 .028 .oo; .030 .031 fiNMC!:, lMS ... Rl:: .015 .038 141 .117 .. 006 .002 0 1 5 .024 .031 RfTA.(L TRAr: .044 .1'7 .246 l46 m 031 003 .02 4 .033 .042 .. tDl.ESALE TPJ.!l .012 .0.50 .094 0 9 3 .058 .U07 .002 0 1
PAGE 200

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS T able E-24: PEI&ll!Al WCO.IIE FCA O.tdlt COtltiTY STEP' W i 81LLJCt$ (F UJ(HIJ.t IXltLJrRS) 1959 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 101> 2025 f .00000 .00076 .00166 .OD293 PUIS mJ .OOD98 . 00316 .OC699 .DC009 .00731 . 00138 .11003) .0014S .00269 .00455 PlUS 01\' IN'f .;i;EilT .OOOS3 .00135 .00296 .Cc-17l .CC69J .00583 .00<37 .1101lfi8 .00566 .00979 PlUS TIWISFER Pl.'i 00028 .00171 .C0118 .01)226 .00728 .00601 .co; .005S3 .00195 PERSatlll UICCtE .01246 .0401!4 .07934 .09228 .071!46 .02564 0 1077 .112071 .03371 .05896 ;s A I O F U .S. .000 .COl .001 .001 .(!>! .coo .ODD .000 .coo LSS TA''4CtliE FfR./00 .OO!i8 .005&1 .011957 .006'l$ .00097 00905 .00245 00115 . ooon .OC071 OF LA.ll!:R Pru::JP(UE'I'Cft'S UiCCtiE: IWIUFk:TlRE .00062 .00341 .00922 .IJCW .00032 . 00010 .00105 .0021)2 .00273 OUAA9LS .OOO:Y.l .00237 .00727 .C0725 .0()378 .00017 00007 .001156 .Oll07 .00135 fl>llURJa.E$ .00032 .00104 .00194 .00215 .00150 .oou; .OOCOl .000<19 .00095 .001:3$ IWIUFACTI.RE .01255 .04121 .ons1 .CSS'll .06 916 .00&78 00062 .009l9 .02094 .ou:es Nltlllffi .00001 .00004 .00009 .00010 .00008 .001101 .. 00001 .00000 .00001 .00002 ectn ar.<5TRUCTJO> .00095 .00815 .1)2002 .02191 .1)2051 .00285 -.03041 .00001 .00035 .DC
PAGE 201

iilt>le E'5: 8Y f'JtiAL OE!Wlil T.c.&.E FOR Ot CQJIITY STEP 4 <8JLLICt.S CKtoltl D 1992 US YlTH VM.UE :ll&ED ) TOTM. TOTAl CO:Sl.HI'T!ON .r.uTOS AAO PARTS Al!Ui & HSEHLO EQ. 011R D'JR..18l.ES FOOO & & SID$ GASO!.INt & Oil FUEL Oil & COI.t OTHE.:t t:E O Hr.tsr t.\l!t RESJC{IlTIAL PRCO. DJR.. EQJJP. B i N' JV>\ l'llSC GR$)VAGR?FD TOT/IJ. G0\1Ef\NoiEN1 FED 001 ffl) OC/1 { 1 '/JU.r.K -S T ATt/ LQC.\1 C.()\' TOTAL EX9(lf(TS O:OOtiOOS O:P Em:OOU.OOS XP lOfAL II'P(!RiS TOT GR? 6Y 'l.lt TOT PRIV Hf VAl NJ TOi G O!J TOT FARH ADOEO ""' FesT .01207 01138 .00103 .OOlOS .0111.136 .00243 .0111181 .OI)tm' .O!IIlOO .00058 0 0068 .00103 .00058 .oooza .00217 .0037 0 .00116 .00060 0 0194 .00!102 .00000 .oooro .011!10 0 .0110(0 .OGO!O .00 6 6 9 .OlZ6J 0 1207 .011 15 .OOOJ2 .00000 2<100 FCST .049S9 .03719 .00344 .00348 00}19 01)796 .002il .00124 ,OCODI 00 1 6 6 01)194 .0034$ .oom .00013-. 00743 0 1392 .oo: m .00233 .00768 .0!1010 .00000 .00127 .0!1000 0!10.30 .00127 .04661 .036S8 0 1 0 3 3 ,04949 .04959 .13'819 00081 .00000 2001 FCST .ll%93 .C621S .00584 .oosss .110198 .01321 .IIMSol .0020 0 .DOOill .00311 .00357 .00513 .00316 .01223 .025 20 ,(11)633 .00<36 0 1450 .Oil01 9 .00000 .00270 .coooo .00000 .00211 10118 .08259 .01859 09$09 .09693 09!>22 00 17) .000) 0 "'"' FCSt 10345 .116621 .00611 .00605 00203 01351 .01>470 C0!9S .00001 .01>'41 .00<4S .ODS@ .Ot>313 .00198 .01219 .0247 9 .00612 .00428 0 1439 .00011 .ooooo .011-116 .00000 .00000 .00416 .10744 01794 .09931 .1034S !0085 00261 .00000 AN ANALYSIS O F THE ECONOM I C IMPACTS 2<103 FeST .06800 .llo18Si' .00!:33 .00<22 .110141) 00933 .00327 .0012 4 .110001 .lll>i56 01>42 5 003$7 .00203 .OOZ34 .()0793 .0 1403 .cross .0023$ .OC80l .CCOlO .00000 .011-193 .00000 .00000 .CC-193-.01339 .06346 .00933 .07301 0 5800 .06493 .00301 .00000 2<104 FCST .0051 3 .1!0321 .OC017 O C 0 2 4 .aeo n .. ocoso . 0 0020 OC02i' OCO.lO ,Qil'31 7 00204 .OCOSi' .. 00040 .0021 0 . 00!89 .. 00295 00!53 00002 . oouo .00002 .00000 .004 5 1 .00000 .00000 .0 0451 .00863 .008-H .00613 .00334 00219 O GOOll OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL 2<11 0 FCST .01202 .ooeas .00030 .00037 .01101 4 .OilOi O .00028 .00017 .0110!)0 00 1 4 3 .( 10154 0 0060 .0003! .00164 00l40 .00148 .Oil016 .Oil005 .00123 Oll003 .OOCO.l .00221 .oocoo .O!ICOO .03221 .0087l. .OOU$ .00646 .009'32 0 1202 0 1t6i ,00135 0 0 00) 201 5 FCST .02154 OW'2 00053 .0009 9 .00033 .00176 .0007 0 .000!!!) .00!59 .00175 .00124 .0005 8 .00187 .OOZ1S 00;2 ,{10043 {10087 0033l .oooos .00001 .00225 .00000 .00000 .00225 Olml m.ss G 1491 .01150 .02016 .0013$ .00000 2025 FCST .03019 0 1 865 001)4 .00143 .000<4 .00233 .OOG95 .001!00 .00203 .00161-.00014 .00201 .00361 .00525 .00053 .00095 .00376 .00007 .00000 .ll32S8 .00000 .00000 .002S8 .02243 .oozs.s .01989 .01818 .03019 .02862 .00151 .00000 203S FCST .02599 C 0 166 C0210 .110364 .00336 .1!0138 .00:1$7 ,00!100 .00260 .00210 .00228 .00102 .00264 .00:.04 .OOS4S .00084 .000!12 .00369 .
PAGE 202

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS . Tabl e E-26: SU?Eit SUttillm' TABL FOO OTHER RG[Cl'IS O F Tf!E STATE STP 1. (TA.6LE I !II P'AATHSS} TOT/IJ.. El1?l.OYHENT (3) a!P t OF US TOT PRI 'I XF &'-:Pl YT<2) f'R. NF .".P t OF IJS GRP CCKt;UiD 92S) ($) PRSO!VL ln:GI' (4) PERS IJIC l 0.: US DISPOSA3LE u:CO:'iE ( 4 ) PCERiCE (4) Fttn. O !SP lXCili (4) PCP'llLATla. { 3 ) POP l fE US 1989 fCST .320 .oco .30S 000 .on 0 1 3 .coo .011 ' .008 .224 o o o 2000 rcsr .79s .0()1 .001 .03S .030 .000 .02S cos .017 .452 .ooo 2001 rcsr 1 .8lle .001 1 .745 .OBI .079 .011 .
PAGE 203

AN ANAl. YSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FI.ORIDA HIGH SPEED RAil. Table [: SI.Jt (QtfAJLEO rA&E # $t[f It.' I'.AJt&IIS-<10 SECT .49 S'CT)) t9SS 2001 2002 2003 200<1 2010 201& 2 025 203& F'CST F'CST resT resT rcsr rtST FCST FCST FCST FCST AAI'iAT 1\Ctlf:.lt'l EMFt.GYl'OT n s sv rF WtMD: TOT/.!. El'!ft..Y!'W {7,18) .30& .76& 1.745 1.506 l.8al 1 448 .o; ; .858 2.7&9 3.831 lm'ERtltOlATE { 7 .19) 064 .164 .423 .411 .465 .360 .ole .219 .646 .84& lCOl. (Cf6Ltl (7 .20 ) .069 .1S6 .:;o; .:!51 .336 .233 .059 .25& .647 l.OIZ GO\'l OEw..-.o (7 21) .000 .COl .002 .003 .004 .001 .004 .ooe .007 lti\'[ST .1CT'IfY (8.22 > .020 .oso .112 .122 1 0 1 .064 .002 .043 .!OJ .oaa X? 1.1.$11o(RL0(8,23) 003 .007 0 1 5 025 . 035 .051 .027 .OlS . 054 .106 EkP (8,Z4) 047 .113 .292 .m .0!11 .026 .055 "" .OS7 ca.zs> .108 .223 .625 .691) .8!0 .839 .298 !.3Stl 1. 994 COSTS AAD PRICES R:.UTJ'I[ T O Tt U .S.: SELI.m; PRIC!: (9,26) .00002 .00006 .00010 O C015 .00017 .CC .00006 .00!)10 .00023 .00030 .00032 .00028 00006 .Q0003 .00032 FUL (9.29) .00000 .00000 0 0000 .onooa 00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .ooono CA?ITAl. (10 .30) .0000 1 .00003 .00007 .0001 2 .(10014 .00014 .COOO! .00002 .O.l01 6 .00026 iKTRXED iNPUTS(!0.31) .00002 .0001).1 .00003 .0001 2 .00014 ,1)00!14 . 110001 .0001 0 .00016 OTHE!t REL m::;o HFG <10.32) .00000 .00000 .OCOCIC .0(100!1 .DOOCG .00002 .00006 .00006 .00006 RL PROF t!FG 0 0 33) .. 00002 . .OOOJB .OC012 . 00010 .00008 .0001).1 .. 00006 .ootllO Jt.'THISTYU1.34) .00000 .00000 . 00001 . 00001 00002 . 00002 00001 . 00001 0 0002 . 0001).1 t!L l T AD.) 01.35) .00000 .onooo .000!11) .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .OOO!l(} .00000 (tP t Cf u s (11 36) .1>00 .001 .001 .001 00 1 .{101 .000 .001 .002 .002 APCSS/O!>'WID(11. 37) .coo .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .003 .000 .000 A'iG WI THJUSU2.Ja) .COl .()32 .O!lB .0119 .ocs . 001 .002 .015 .026 Jt(ll Hl:t 02. 33) 00003 .00006 1!0017 .. 00020 0002'1 00029 . 001103 .00010 011040 .. 00057 W a t u lOiiS Cf OCti.ARS: OOONO 02,40) .02139 .05'182 .13;]7 .lS921 .1557 5 1 2671 .OlZSf.l .21618 .41879 11PCf
PAGE 204

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Tab l e E 2a: Elfl.OYHtlfi TA31.E fC:R OTHtR REGIONS Of TilE STATE STP 4, OK THOOSA!It6 OF HAAll' At!Ui< ;.sA r Cf' u s ltlll' P$ At f;F U .S. H UIIt.ti FDV1t:E. Jt."S. RE Ri:TAIL TRAJ: lol.'fOLESAL TR4!! SER'tJCES ASIU /FCA/F J S K S\'C TOTPJ. GO'iE!i.tlitltT AS A 1: CF U .S. ST A.IID LOCAl OO'IT FED. GOYT. C!Yl. Fro. fY:Yif. KIU. F J\nt .c.s J\ t 0.: u.s. TOTAL &.MYtiOO' At Of U.S. FON!LATllll AS At rF U.S. !.999 f-(.ST .ot .1!00 .000 .006 .292 .000 .COl 0 1 9 .006 .017 .067 .oos 1 n 002 016 000 .015 .000 .000 .000 .000 .320 .000 .224 .coo 2;)00 FCST .067 .ooc .OlS .69S .001 .004 .076 .018 1 47 171 027 .247 .000 .030 .COD .030 .000 .OBI) .000 .000 .1% .00 1 .<52 .coo z;)Cl FCST .146 .001 .Ill .IIGS 1.599 .001 Oll .57 4 ou 184 .318 .058 .39"2 .022 .063 000 .063 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.8fl8 .001 94 1 .000 :roo2 F-CST .19-1 .1101 .157 .036 1.712 .1!01 .012 .6S7 ... .350 .458 .023 104 .01!0 .104 .000 .003 .000 .000 2 .009 .001 l .SJ2 .001 2003 fCST .156 .001 .13 1 .0<6 1.725 .00 1 .010 167 .037 .on .297 .049 .467 .021 .137 .0(11 .137 .0()0 .coo .000 .000 2 .018 .001 2 .013 00 1 2004 fCST .069 .coo .061 .007 t.m .001 .006 7 32 .041 .037 .163 024 .36S .011 col .IS9 .coj 000 oor I 1.601 001 "'I i I :roto FeST .000 .000 .C03 .006 o n .000 .000 . 0 1 5 .033 .007 .015 .OOJ .030 .001 .101 .000 .101 .ooo .000 .000 .000 1 80 .000 1 A1l .ooo 2015 fest 063 .coo .036 .017 .&6 .001 .002 Zl2 .072 .135 .020 .311 .010 .139 .001 .IS9 000 .000 .000 .000 .977 .001 2 .<146 .001 2026 fCST 1 03 .001 0 7 8 .024 2 656 .005 .91S .058 .2:JS .3 .042 1.010 .031 .347 .001 .3<7 .000 oco .000 .000 3.1C6 .002 5 .283 .0!12 2035 tC$T .C99 .001 .026 3 793 .003 .cos L311 .057 .335 .510 .0$1 1.486 .045 .644 00 2 .644 .coo .coo .000 .000 <4.541 .OD2 9.734 .003 E -29

PAGE 205

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL [ 29: P[R:SCN/4. TA5l.t FOR OiliER liEGTOSS O f THE STATi ST'i:F t., (IN 01 lillilw.t IXltlAAS) 1999 zono 2001 2DOZ 2000 l034 2010 2G1 S 2G2S 203S FCST FCST iCST FCST TCST FCST rcsr fCST FCST fCST 't.'/.G AAO SPL O!SB .01648 .G231 9 .GS429 .06818 .07295 .C62-67 .00164 .l)l()nS .ISSJO .39182 F$)jAAJ[TW.$ 11+ .00000 .00001) ,1)3000 .00000 .OBCOO .nooon .ocooo coon .00000 .00000 OTHER lo)OOR JKCOtE .coteo ,01Z66 0149.) 01631 .01 .00154 .01084 .049:i7 .os-saJ O f PERSO!U.I.. H lcrtl 8Y PlAC OF RESJ!lHCE: TOT AArR It+: .01228 .02757 .06S% .0$373 .osm .omz .oo: m .05@0 .244!)7 ,.bS06J ASAtOf U S .000 .001 .COl .nOI .COl o n .000 .on .002 .OOJ lESS SOC lNSR CNT .00081) .COliS .00418 .OOS30 .O,S63 .00013 .00312 .01526 .0301'1 PUIS R(SIO ADJ .00139 .n0144 .&ls;:l'Z .01110-3 .Ol$11 .nll333 011039 . n0023 .1!0371 O!l8l l .?lliS !>I\'. HIT .R.Eill 000 7 4 .COIS< .oom .oases .03790 .OC-969 .OIJS60 .01400 .04002 .lnl)97 ?U.IS TRAASf R 00041 ,COlSl .C'm68 .0(12:-8 . 0.3005 .nroa2 .0 1027 .01085 02.167 07274 Pa&ttAl lliOOI' .01320 .03 024 .07114 .09171 .099SS .089l3 .(12254 .0724Z .25053 .625-<9 AS At OF U .S. .ono ()0) .COl 0 0) .ocn coo .031 coz .002 lESS TAXES .00211 .004911 .0!163 0 1 464 .OlSSl .01329 .0 0191 .nC%3 .o.1!71 .08691 O ISPOSABt. .01109 .02>30 .05S5l 011 13 .07>84 .OZC-63 .oom .248S4 .5l8S7 PeE-PRICE l tll EX2 .00249 .COS<& 018Z I .02350 .02586 .oms On365 .nms ()2666 .045V Rl:lo!. OJS PER .0076! .01117 .li3428 ,1).$29 4 C '-490 .04019 .01J8S .03725 .10378 1601 3 J.S 1. 1 Of U S .O:IIl .0.:10 .001 .001 .001 .001 .C LCOO. 001'1 .tl0 1 0 1 .01>221 .0049 0 .0073& .C0912 .OG974 .00351 .00798 .03376 .08083 no tnn tlYil lh'l .0001 2 .00026 .OOCS3 .0006 7 .00071 .OC061 ono12 .00016 .C0134 .(1024-4 f'EO Glfff KlL:TAA'l' .00030 .OCODO .(!(1(1(!0 ,000(10 .00000 ocooo .OilOOD .110000 .GilOOO """ .()0000 ,(100(11) .co:mo .00000 .00000 .1100!10 .ocooa .1100:10 .OCO!IO 00000 IF All O .O'S 11!1 INX+E 1\l.S 6Wt omER LA60R Jt.'C(M E -30

PAGE 206

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS RAIL Table E.JO: GRP 8Y FHI-"L DDW P/IATS FURtl $ HSEHI-0 OTiiER f'OOO & 8EYEAAGE$ etonm33 & SHlts GASO.Uti & OIL Ft!EL OIL & COJl. OTIR HOUSUiG HSetD OPElb\TiO!t TRlSPORTATII)l HEAI..'nt SER\'JCE:S Cl'MR S!R'IItES TQfj1L fiXED l'''$ T RESlOEirrt /.l OOI'l aESIOOfft.r.t PP!O. OOR. EOOIP. OU IIET I V A -+ I'HSC G. 1959 FCST .01144 .C074S .00049 .COOS1 .COOlS .C014S .00052 .00026 .00001 .00042 .00079 .00063 .00035 .00029 ,00143 .C05S8 .0012'3 .00333 .00003 .00000 .00074 .00000 .00000 .00074 .00951 .00610 .00341 .0118 1 Oll.W .01096 .00047 .00000 FCST .1)3;50 .1>1689 .00112 .00131 00356 .00329 .00120 ,00!1$9 .00003 .00090 .00110 ,00 148 .OOoEO .OO!ISJ .DOJSS 0 1031 .0&2ez .01035 .00011 .oooco .oo1eo .00000 .00000 .00 150 .032?8 .01789 .01493 .0)210 03$0 .0$455 .00095 .ocooo 2001 FesT .07891 .03376 .00221 .0(126) .110 113 .oom .00241 .00116 .00006 .00341 .C009& .00671 .OC657 .02147 .00022 -.00!1!11 .COliS .00000 .00!100 .00318 .09S20 .05962 .ozses .07&91 .07690 .00201 .00000 2002 FesT 08766 .tl4l.tl() .0&213 .00313 .ll0133 .C0766 .o1>2a6 .couo .00007 .00281 00468 .00037 .00182 .00177 .03701 .C064Z .00701 .02358 .00023 .COJIIO .00526 .cooco .00000 .00526 .09150 .07125 .&2625 .08766 .03437 .00330 .00000 2<103 FCST .09S9'1 .t-424! .1:0270 .00307 .00129 .00743 .0&280 .00122 .00006 .00345 00542 .OOJ20 .00172 .00249 .00756 .C\3142 .C0597 .00579 .01967 .00017 .00000 .00701 .00000 .00000 .00701 .ossn .01401 .09383 .01 08t54 .OC4J7 .00000 20" FesT 0 1091 .O:;&a6 .00216 .C0243 .00102 .OOSS2 .00222 .00093 ocoos .lll\155 .I!Wi2 .Ot-248 .00134 .00020 .00596 .02274 .00140 .ONI3 .01421 .00007 .coooo .00819 .00000 .00000 .00820 .08218 .08422 .00204 .07911 .01081 .MS&l 00507 .001)0!) 2010 FCST .01933 ,016S8 .COilS\ .COOSB .00330 .001<0 .000 .00036 .000(12 .03169 .00332 .Ollt\9 .OODS.1 .OOJ3S .OOZ81 .0032'6 .00224 .00004 .ODCOO .oosso .00000 .00000 oosso .0!1913 .00437 .00476 .01$9 .01933 .O!S'97 .00:337 .00000 2015 f (.$ T ,06772 .03518 .CIJ1&9 .00228 .00091 .0002 .00187 .00088 .00000 .O'ms .005 1 8 .00218 .00132 .00475 .00691 .01752 .OOZ87 .G-3300 .01160 cocos .0000!1 .00785 .00000 .00000 .00786 .043&9 .03541 .00827 .04759 .osnz .D$293 oooeo .00000 202S FCST .1647S .09793 .OOS08 .00272 .01296 .COS.Sl .00228 .00009 .()09()7 .01301 ,()0746 .Q0353 .01027 0\856 .(14231 .0()1)08 .00690 .02733 .00012 .110()01 .ozoso .00000 .00000 .02091 .149.3 . 00044 .14615 16475 .15201 .01274 .00000 2<135 FCST .16913 .00836 .012C4 .004SO .1>2123 .00927 .00365 .00013 .01756 .02382 01203 .oosn .02044 .0304 1 .D'728 .01041 .00736 .02951 .00011 .OOCOl .04097 .00000 .00000 .04&97 .23 12 .22885 .Oo23S .Z4t7a .2169S .22194 .025{11 .00000 E -31

PAGE 207

AN A N ALYSIS OF THE E CONOMIC I M PACTS OF FLORIOA HIGH SPEEO RAIL (: Sl.IP'i& T/l!tt FCR STilT { OF STEP 4 (TJ.SL f RFR.liCS Ill TOTAL Elf"t.O"'l!ENT <3) &If> t Of' US TOT PRJV Nf .Pt.YT(2) PR. ur 91P t o; us GRP (CHA[N (5) P!RSCIIAJ, 1HOO!tc+E (4) P(!PU!.ATICN (J) FOPASlUUS rcsr 3.40$ .aaz 3 .303 .003 .122 145 .0!12 !23 039 001 2.063 ,0::11 Zlt$ ; EHPLOYI'alf & P{))UtATlttl are in T:o(JJSAHJS of tlC. OO.l.AA conci';>ts in Of CI'A i HD 921 U!!less o tt-.er ..i:st and PK CAPJTA coo:epts a r e 1n nt:tiS/I.h'OS RUJ.. OOU .AAS. IIIOEX: TO AVA[LABI. TJ.3LES SlPtR St.M'lAAY TA&.t j;{FERSC.E lST,. ... TABL E 1 Sl..tf't.AR1 TAStES FM PRIVATE ..WF.:P .. . TPBl E 2 11'\.0'fflEWT TABlE & PO?i!LATlCtl . ...... . TP&E 3 PERSCfW. Ht:J:ll' TIJILE ... . . ........ ... GRP !Y F!NM.. te'..V I !) SILL Of CXA.mm 9ZL TABU 5 10 SECTCR CTA1l (SEE TAa Z f(R illlX) ... T1\B'tES 7i. OWJPATTOlljl.l EttPLOYI'EJIT TPSL E I S OCCUPATIO:W. 'N/oGE AAit {W...'Ir.E TAStE 16 HIY.:Elu.'m:OS DATA. L/.3CR PROOUCTIVITY . ... TAStES 11A.178 4g OCT All (SEE T.A&. 2 FCQ IIS[X) .. TAStES 189 2004 FesT .003 3 .295 .002 .229 .U9 005 .C6l 15' 17 !iS9 .006 2010 FCST m .ooo .136 .000 .142 .163 001 150 .OIS .142 11. 283 .OC4 2015 FesT 3.439 .002 2.763 .002 27' .333 1)03 .296 .. 0!3 .213 1 2.977 .00' 2025 FCST 6 739 004 .004 .463 .139 004 .6'4 .IXI9 .33S 18. 84 2 .006 21JG5 FCST 9.033 .005 7 58i .OC6 .613 l.J% .OC6 1.216 .OQ6 E-32

PAGE 208

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECON O MIC IMPACTS Table E-32: SUttAAY TAStE too PIU\'ATE SECTOOS FeR STATE O F FLORltl A STEP 4 (CTAll T:BtE !I REF IN P;.REICS9 3 .399 2.073 209 .376 1.305 2. 130 2.911 00/f OOWID 0 21} .005 .011 .022 .031 .031 .013 .005 .022 .05 1 .066 lWIST Al.:fll1l (8. 22) .175 .621 1.048 1.012 .SOl .109 .C63 .t42 .2.49 .2S2 EXP US/w.;R.0(8.ZJ) 103 . 214 . 3S3 . 456 .576 .217 .000 .057 .022 XP HULTREG (8 .24) 190 .700 1.240 1.211 .719 .027 .289 .491 .611 EXOOEOOIIS (8.25 ) l.S39 5 .342 9 .SS3 10.701 8 .038 3.421 .C66 .209 1.207 1.797 OOSlS SEUUIJ, PRICES REll\TlVE TO TtE U.S. : SELLIKG PRIC (9.2S) .cooo8 .00022 .OOo-13 .OCC56 .00053 .00 03l . 00015 1]001?. 00006 ,llootl2 O.cTOR Jt:PUTS ( 9.27> .00011 .00000 .00061 .00081 0 0 075 00040 -.com 00029 . 00022 00016 LOSOR ( 9 .29) ,001Jl7 .ooo;o .OCG94 .00117 .00103 .00059 -.C0021 . 00014 -.00004 .00000 ,..,l ,OD(IIlO .OilODit .Ct .00008 . 00020 .. 00038 -.000<9 .00004 .00019 .00027 .0002S .00021 .00017 L'.8'JR IHTENSTY(J1.34) .00001 .00001 .000!13 . 00004 . 00006 .OC006 . 0!1002 .0!1000 .00002 .03003 A!JJ U 1,3S) .00000 . 0 0000 .coooo .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 EH? t Cf U.S. .2!87S .83746 1.55756 1.63$59 1.11591 .32056 .23254 .46320 76Zll 1.02979 lHPCfS .00558 .3S&J5 .1$5.22 .81223 .58lS1 .21463 07803 .13290 .23890 .34940 s.!LF StfPLY U3 .Q2) .!2311 .A5151 .1:12133 .5:!436 .10S93 15'72 .33038 .52350 .68042 r.xPORTS (13.43) .00375 00912 . 01959 03241 04202 .04227 0!318 .00916 .01937 JNTAAREG m (13, 44) .03000 .00000 ocooo 0 0000 COOIJO O!lOOD .OODCO .OODCO .ocooo .00000 EXOOEilJUS PRDN
PAGE 209

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMP ACTS OF FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL T able E-33: EHPLOi!!O' T!!BLE FO.tt STATE Cf FLOIUOA S TEP 4 ON O F PC:CPt> 1999 2000 2C01 2002 2COO 2004 2010 2015 2025 2035 FCSt r m rm FCST FCST rm rm FCSt .058 .632 1 .720 L 7Sl .798 006 .037 .22< 318 .306 :.s :.. : or u .s. .000 .003 .01)9 .010 .OG< .coo .000 .001 .00 2 .003 DURA3LES .0 3 0 514 LS1S !.549 .610 .014 0 1 5 .148. .216 l(}f:O'JlWltES .039 .118 .2(11 .2&1 .106 020 .022 .075 .10 2 .107 3 .23S 1 0.819 1 8 .6H 19.466 13.733 3 .3ce .098 2.539 5.427 7 .211l AS 1. & or u s .on .010 .017 O!i .012 003 .COli Ol2 "" .oos .002 015 .033 .033 .02S .006 .COl .003 .037 .001 OOIIT .338 3 .290 7 .3-W 7 .S69 6 .741 2.618 189 .211 L(Xl7 ?I.e ur .059 .216 .375 .JS6 .204 .o;s .205 .ZOl .zso .2S3 FJN.m:E. WS. RE .133 1.238 L754 1.994 ASS .017 012 20' .439 .587 RTAU. TRADE .... 1 556 Z .521 2 5 37 1 590 003 031 """ .... 1.1 35 t0t.ES.6LE TRPDE .066 .278 .528 .521 .323 .005 .ace 09' .151 165 2.123 4.204 6 .132 6 .225 4 .327 .4!iS .124 1.301 2 .631 3 .587 AG;tiliO RIFlSH Svt 0 16 .072 .127 l2S 068 .021 . 0 2 .ozo .002 091 TOl'A1. OOYER.'IIE:h'T .10< 2 -52 .S2S .808 .95& .9<5 .5!)t .678 .99. ; J.S A l Cf' U.S. .000 .0!11 ooz .004 .004 004 .003 .00< .&OS S f JI.JtJ LI>::AL. OOYT 10< .252 .S2S .808 .950 .91 .00< .006 001 E 34

PAGE 210

AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLORIDA Table E :l.t : Pifl.SOIC/4. IMCCHE TAiilt FJ;B SlAT O F STEP.:, m : o; I\Cl'lll441. OOLLAAS) 1999 2.000 2001 2002 2000 2004 2010 2015 202S 20:JS FCST FCST FCST FCSl FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST WJ.GE k'iD SAl.. D IS6 1262:! .58350 .83665 .66312 .02713 .09167 .34418 .668S5 .001100 000 00 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 OlllE R UJR It.'OOt .02239 .08151 1681$ .181178 .1392$ .00724 ,(.1)590 .10262 .18697 O F PRS01i.t.t Wtlli E BY PI.At OF R'SIOEKC\: TOT l:,goo.. 'PA::X> IUC .14SS7 .47607 .907'14 1.01749 .80240 .3ro59" .01987 .12853 .4<6n .86571 AS A t OF U.S. .003 .009 .016 .018 .01 3 .00 5 .000 .001 .000 .004 LESS SOC tfiSR OIT .01003 .0:;1)9$ .oss; a .06651 .05152 .020-H .00222 .C0720 .02112 .052$9 PLUS R A!lJ . 00028 00086 .00173 -. 00199 -.0 0 1 69-.00092 .00002 .C0050 00193 .00376 PLUS OiV,HtT ,RDIT .OOlES .02458 .0Wi7 .05$34 II>Z36 .10518 .12962 ,2{139S .36499 PLUS TRAtlSFER PAY .UOJlt 0 1781 02819 ,0133!1 .01934 :o61 0 5 .07707 .06264 .11755 .23050 Pf..RSIJVIL lOCCM ASlll .6704a 1.01901 .S704S .448SS .16266 .3331 9 .73914 1.39466 AS t. r Cf u.s. .002 006 .011 .Ot:l .010 .005 .001 .003 .004 006 l ESS TAXES .02193 .06934 13348 .15:JS:) .12707 01267 .03771 .09488 17859 O ISfOSAel. PtR. INC 12219 ,73';06 .86!4$ .7433$ .3S9JS .14996 .29553 1.21506 PCEPRICE INW: 92 .oom .07621 .09399 .06620 .C5447 . 01503 .01269 .00660 .0 0623 ROO. O lS INt:n'IE .OSll.S .4 00Sl .44202 .34686 .14191 .21310 .33493 .48-162 AS At 1538 S'ER.VICES .09<24 .19900 .31:SOO .3461 8 .26843 .01351 -.1>181 0 .0495! .19250 .08696 J.GRI/fWF iSH .01)1);2 .0020< .00379 .004$6 .003l5 .00064 .OOlSO 00039 .00 12:6 .00005 TOT/d. OOVEAAHENT .OC&Sl .02369 .04ec8 .06781 .07166 .05879 .019S6 .03150 .on33 .15342 S1 Nl!J l.OCid. 00/f .00184 .02163 .04425 .06308 .06769 .05636 .031 94 .15655 F 00'/T .00018 .00206 00384 .00471 .ooua .002-'2 .000 .000<6 .00078 .00191 fED OOitr M!UTAAY .00006 (lij00 3 o ocoo ,00000 .ODilOIJ 000.:10 .O!lOCO .1!0000 .00000 .110300 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 O OOJO ooooo 00000 .coooo ,0!1000 .00000 IF ALL O O'S TfiUl IucettE WS 8 HERS8) ItiTO OTIR l:.SOO: Itmt' E 35

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E-3S: Gli.P SY Flllt;L OEtWID TllSI.E f(R SiAl( Of rL.ORI(ll. SltP 4 (Blt.LICNS Of OV\) 1992 US OOLLAAS-REOOIICJUD I,YTH VAtU llOI."tO) fltP TOTN... COIIS\II'PTia. J.UTOS J..ll() PA.I:!TS fl.'R4 & BS.0 EO. 0TliR O!!AA!t.S f34 .00006 .COOl S .00748 .00765 .CC\413 .0163 2 .0<429 .OUS6 .00770 .02502 .COOl S .CODDl .1!0)14 .OOOilO .cooco .00515 .10933 0979 ouq .1224-i 12250 .11920 .00331 .00000 zooo fCST .Sll65 .21112 .01995 = .00943 .05631 ,02005 .00983 .00(1.16 .01169 .02026 .02Sl5 .01344 .ODS9l ,05551 1 643: .036$9. .02983 .09795 .0!1016 .00000 .01 2$4 .00001) .00000 .0125< S4472 ,,9ll4 .OS358 .51l6& .50359 .caaoo .OC030 200! iCS l 97541 .42764 .03164 .01461 .08699 .03179 .01469 .00067 .02268 .036JO .03798 .0101'5 .09371 .zno1 .05717 .OS407 .00131 0000 .02631 .00000 .00000 .02637 1.14816 1.05113 0970.3 .91885 .95.969 01670 .ocooo 200Z FCST LC49i9 .03291 .03651 .01484 .08828 .Ol406 .OOOE3 .03096 .04630 .01979 .011 1 9 .ll8172 .292SO .GS718 .05393 .18ll9 .0000 0 .040SO .GOOCO .ootiOO .11'4050 1.23577 1 .152 9741S 1.02426 .02S12 AN ANAL YS/S OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS 2003 FCST 6 1969 .321S6 .02185 .02316 .00948 .C668S .1>2114 .COi'9S .C0035 .00218 .C>Zl2l .01166 .02211 .OH22 .03514 .02869 .097SS .00066 .C<903 .cooco .IXI!ICO .(14.903 .85574 .8:?833 .02741 .70!i69 67969 .OlC62 .00000 20M FCST .22910 .09568 .oozn .00274 .00099 o:l58l .00249 -.00039 .OODDO .02594 .03!:!8 .Ooll$1 .OODIS .02493 .00329 .01807 .00176 03367 .01263 .OOG1S .00000 .0<865 .00000 .onnoo .04865 .317&5 .35423 03637 2S201 .22910 1989' .03017 .OilCOO 2.(110 fCST .14160 13483 .00364 .005()< .00235 ,01018 .00442 .ODlDS .00013 .0).1172 .02606 .009&3 .004S9 .02S63 .02419 .01432 .03380 .00926 .0002S .ODDOO .03Z?3 00000 .03223 .02777 03717 1(149! .14160 .121 83 .01977 .ODODO 201S FCST .21m mss .OC628 .01139 .oc.m .Oll65 .00934 OCS16 .00020 .01868 .017.33 00776 .03356 .04179 .1165fi8 Oll40 .01149 .0437] .00349 .OOODI .03840 .00000 .00000 .1!3839 .1.1519 .t:SS22 .19031 2 7399 .25049 .023-IS .ODOOD 2