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Florida five-year transportation disadvantaged plan, 1992-1996.
n Technical memoranda nos. 3 and 4,
p population and demand forecasts and cost and funding : executive summary /
c prepared for the Florida Transportation Disadvantaged Commission and the Florida Department of Transportation by the Center for Urban Transportation Research, College of Engineering, University of South Florida.
Tampa, Fla. :
b Center for Urban Transportation Research,
People with disabilities
University of South Florida.
Center for Urban Transportation Research.
Transportation Disadvantaged Commission (Fla.)
Dept. of Transportation.
t Center for Urban Transportation Research Publications [USF].
FLORIDA FIVE-YEAR TRANSPORTATION DISADVANTAGED PLAN 1992-1996 Technical Memoranda Nos. 3 and 4 Population and Demand Forecasts and Cost and Funding EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prepared for the Florida Transportation Disadvantaged Commission and the Florida Department of Transportation by the Center for Urban Transportation Research College of Engineering University of South Florida June 1992
PREFACE This is the executive summary for the third and fourth of jive technical memoranda to be produced by the Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) for the Transportation Disadvantaged Commission and the Florida Department of Transportation. These memoranda, along with a final report, will comprise the Florida Five-Year Transportation Disadvantaged Plan that is mandated by Chapter 427.013 (14), Florida Statutes. Technical Memorandum No. 1 provided an introduction and historical perspective to transportation disadvantaged services in Florida. Technical Memorandum No. 2 reported on statewide operating data, on results of an attitudinal and needs survey, and on an evaluation of the existing transportation disadvantaged system in F lorida. Technical Memorandum No. 3 presents demand forecasts for transportation disadvantaged transportation services over the next jive years. Technical Memorandum No 4 provides estimates of the cost of meeting the demand and explores the ability of current funding resources to meet that cost. Technical Memorandum No. 5 will discuss policy issues, goals and objectives, and implementation strategies. The preparation of this report has bee n fina n ced in part through a gra n t f rom the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal T ransit Administration (formerly the U rban Mass Transportation Administration), under the Federal Transit Act .. 11
FLORIDA FIVE-YEAR TRANSPORTATION DISADVANTAGED PLAN Technical Memoranda Nos. 3 and 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The technical memoranda that are summarized here present severa l forecasts fo r Florida's transportation disadvantaged (ID) system for the five year period f rom 1992 through 1996. This summary presents forecasts of: (1) the transportation disadvantaged population, (2) demand for specialized TD transportation services, (3) the number of 1D trips that will be supplied, (4) the funding required to supply these trips, (5) unmet demand, and (6) the number and cost of additional and replacement vehicles required during the five-year period. TD transportation services provide trips to agency programs and trips to general, or non program-related destinations. A program trip is one made by a client of a government or social service agency for the purpose of participating in a program of that agency. Examples of program trips are trips to congregate dining facilities, sheltered workshops, and job tra ining facilities. A general trip is one made by a transportation disadvantaged person to a destination of his or her choice, not to an agency program. Examples of general trips are trips to work, grocery stores, and recreational areas. The difference between these two trips are important because these trips are provided to two categories of 1D persons. Agencies that purchase 1D transportation serv ices to transport clients to programs typically serve persons who can be classified into one or more of three demographic groups: the disabled, the elderly, and the low-income. These agency programs are open to all persons within the specific demographic groups served (subject to available funding), regardless of their need for 1D transportation services. In addition to the trips that these agencies subsid ize 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY for transportation to programs, agencies also subsidize general trips. Most general trips currently made, however, are subsidized with 1D Trust Fund monies. The eligibility guidelines contained in Chapter 427, Florida Statutes require that disabled, elderly, and low-income persons be : .. unable to transpon themselves or to purchase transponation .... As a result, some persons who use 1D transportation services for program trips may not be eligible for 1D Trust Fund subsidies for general trips under the Chapter 427 guidelines. Because of these differences in eligibility, the state's coordinated 1D system serves two population groups. The first group includes disabled, elderly, and low-income persons, and children who are "high-risk" or "at-risk". These persons are eligible to receive governmental and social service agency subsidies for program trips and general trips, and are referred to in this report as the 1D Categozy I population. The second population group includes those persons who are transportation disadvantaged according to the eligibility guidelines in Chapter 427 (i.e., they are unable to transport themselves or to purchase transportation). These persons are eligible to receive the s'ame subsidies as Category I persons plus they are eligible to receive 1D Trust Fund monies for non-sponsored general trips. They are referred to as the 1D Categocy II population. This population is a subset of the Category I population. (It should be noted, however, that it also is commission policy to provide service, subject to available capacity, to persons who are not eligible for funding as long as those persons pay for their trips.) Florida's estimated 1992 1D Category I population, made up of disabled, elderly, and low income persons, is shown in Figure ES-1. The total number of these persons is estimated to be 5.3 million in 1992. The Category I population is forecasted t o increase from 5.3 million persons in 1992 to 5.7 million persons in 1996. The Florida Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services estimates that approximately 28 percent of Florida's children under the age of five are "high-risk" or "at-risk". Forecasts based on the 1990 Census indicate that there are approximately 903,000 children under 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY the age of 5 in the state in 1992; 28 percent of these children is 253,000. Most of these children are disabled and/or are members of low-income families, and, therefore, are included in the population forecasts of Florida's disabled and low-income persons. If the number of "high-risk" or "at-risk" children increases at the same rate as the projected growth in the state's population of preschool children, the number of these children will increase from 253,000 in 1992 to 281,000 in 1996. Disabled 1.8 Million Low lneome 1.8 Million Elderly 3.2 Million Total = 5.3 Million FIGURE ES-1. Florida TD Category I population, 1992. The ID Category II population is composed of persons who, because of disability, income status, or age, are unable to transport themselves. Disability refers to physical or mental limitations that may prevent a person from transporting him or herself, while income status refers to the fmancial capability of a person to purchase transportation. The reasons associated with age are not as apparent. Age alone should not affect a person's ability to transport him or herself. It may, however, relate to other factors that are associated with the aging process or to demographic characteristics of the elderly population; namely, the higher incidence of disability and poverty among the elderly. Therefore, the Chapter 427 guidelines imply that physical or mental disability or income status, 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY regardless of age, are the criteria that determine eligibility for 1D Trust Fund subsidies. The number of person with disabilities that prevent them from transport i ng themselves was estimated using data from the National Survey of Transportation Handicapped People, conducted by the Federal Transit Administra tion (formerly the Urban Mass Transportation A dminist r ation) in 1977 The survey suggests that 2 7 percent of persons aged 0 to 59 are transportation handicapped and 19 0 percent of persons aged 60 and over are transportation handicapped. The number of persons who are unable to transport themselves because of income status was estimated from income data from the U S Census and national statistics on automobile ownership by income l evel. For the purpose of this report low-income persons are considered to be unable to transport themselves if they do no t have an aut omobile available in the household ill if they lack access to public transit Table ES-1 shows for ecasts of Florida's Category II population. This Tra nsportation Handicapped Non-Elderly 31,nr 38,594 39,431 40,290 40,952 Low I ncome Tra nsportation Ha n dicapped NonElderly, 2()6 20() 241,673 247,081 252,733 2S1',000 Non-l.Ow lnoome TraMPonation Handlcapped, Elderly, 71,283 74, 401 76,020 77,2139 Low Income Transportati o n Handicapped, Elderl y 534.385 546,004 567,959 570,262 580, 301 Non-low lnoome Tmnsportation Handicapped, 165 60 1 169,932 174,3 99 1 79,006 182,549 Low Income, No Auto, No Public Transit 4
E X E C UTIVE SUMMARY popu l ation is estimated to be 1.0 million persons in 1992 and is forecasted to increase to 1.1 million persons in 1996. As shown in Figure ES-2, the total demand for transportation disadvantaged trips is forecasted t o be 2 6.6 mill ion trips in 1992 and to increase to 28.9 million t r ips in 1996. This total demand con s ists of demand for both program trips and general trips by persons in ID Categor i es I and II. 40 35 m Generai T n p s Program Tri p s 30 2 5 20 15 10 5 0 1 992 1 993 1 99 4 1 9 95 1996 FIGURE ES 2. To t al d e mand fo r trips Total demand for general t rip s was forecasted by applying per cap ita trip rates t o the Category II population. These trip rates were developed from sev e n par atransi t syst ems around the U.S. that were c o nsidered to provi d e h i gh levels of service (e g., minimal o r no restrictions on the numb e r of trips a person can take, minima l or no waiting list, and minima l o r no denial of trip requests). These seven systems are meeting most or all of the trip demand in 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY their service areas. The demand for general trips is forecasted to be 135 million trips in 1992 and to increase to 14 .7 million trips in 1996. The demand for program trips is dependent upon the existence of_the programs to which transportation disadvantaged persons are transported. If there is no program, program-related transportation is not demanded. For example, demand for transportation service to a sheltered workshop exists because there is a sheltered workshop program and capacity in the program for persons who will demand trips. Assuming that agency programs increase at the same growth rate as the Category I population, program trip demand is forecasted to be 13.1 million trips in 1992 and to increase to 14.2 million trips in 1996 This implies that social service programs will grow to meet n ew demand and that budgets for new and expanded programs will include sufficient funds to cover necessary transportation costs. The commission has, on a limite d basis, provided subs idies for transportation to agency programs when program funds have run out. However, the commission is making efforts to ensure that t he various governmental and social service programs maintain sufficient funds to accommodate the transportation needs of their program clients. (Whether or not the need for social service programs is being met is, of course, a different issue.) The total supply of 1D trips is forecasted to be 15.9 million trips in 1992 and to increase to 17.0 million trips in 1996, as shown in Figure ES-3. As suggested in the previous section, the demand for program trips is assumed to be equal to the supply of program trips. This assumes that program planners should--and willbudget adequately for all program expenses. That is, that they will not increase the scope of a program without increasing the capacity of the program to transport the additional clients. There fore, both the demand for and the supply of program trips are forecasted to be 13. 1 million in 1992 and to increase to 14.2 million in 1996. The supp ly of general trips is forecasted to be 2.8 million in both 1992 and 1996. Forecasts of trips supplied by operators in the coordinated system include general trips subsidized with the 1D Trust Fund and general and program trip s 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 40 .......................................... ............ ........... ............. ............... 30 ll!illliiD General Trips 8 Program Trips 25J.!.. ........................................................................................................ ............................... 20J.!-"""'''""' ' '''"''''''''''''"'"""'''''' '"""'"' " '"""''''' " '"'"""'" '""' ''"'""""' ' '''' ''' 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 FIGURE ES-3. Total supply of trips. subsidized with governmental and social service agency funds. The supply of general and program trips funded by governmental and social service agencies is forecasted to increase at the same rate as the Category I population. General trips supplied with ID Trust Fund monies were forecasted based on projections of the 1D Trust Fund and future trip costs. The supply of trips in the coordinated system is forecasted to be 8.6 million trips in 1992 and to increase to 9.1 million trips in 1996 A significant number of trips will also be supplied outside of the coordinated system. ID funds that are expected to be spent outside the coordinate d system could supply an additional 7.3 million trips in 1992 and 7.9 million trips in 1996. 7 A$ shown i n Figure ES-4, to supply the number of forecasted trips in the coordinated system, funding from the various ID sources is forecasted to increase from $66.3 million to $81.6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY million during the five-year period. Approximately 90 percent of these funds will be provided by governmental and social service agencies, while the remainder will be Florida TD Trust Fund monies. $100 fllli!m!!....._ __________ ---, $60 $40 $20 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 FIGURE ES-4. Operating funds available through the coordinated system. Total statewide funds for TD trans portat ion, including those passing through the coordinated system and those expended outside the coordinated system, are estimated to increase from $122.3 million in 1992 to $ 1 52.6 million in 1996 if growth in total funding matches the growth in the Category I population. If at some point the funds spent outside the coordinated system begin to pass through the coordinated system, the system's trip and funding data will be more representative of the total TD transportat ion services being provided in the state. There is a significant gap between forecasted trip demand and the forecasted supply of trips. F i gure ES-5 shows that unmet demand for TD transportation services is forecasted to total10.6 million trips in 1992 and 11.8 million trips in 1996. 8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Millions 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 FIGURE ES-5. Unmet demand for trips. The level of unmet demand for ID transportation services is to a number of factors. One important factor is trip subsidization. Nearly every TI) trip provided in Florida is partially or fully subsidized The disparity between the true cost of a trip and the price paid by the passenger after subsidy crea t es a situation where the person generally will demand more trips than the subsidizing organization is willing or able to provide Surveys on the trip purposes of general trips by transportation disadvantaged persons in other U.S. paratransit systems indicate that approximately 35 percent of the trips taken are medical trips, 20 percent are work or educational trips, 10 percent are shopping trips, and 35 percent are social, recreational, and other trips. There is no reason to suspect that in Florida the distribution of demand by these trip purposes would be any different. If the general trips made serve these purposes in approximately the same proportion, then the unmet demand by trip purpose will also be in these same proportions. This suggests that the unmet demand for medical trips will be on the order of 3.7 million trips in 1992. The unmet demand by other trip purposes is calculated to be 2.1 million trips for education and work trips, 1.1 9
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY million trips for shopping trips, and 3.7 million for social, recreational, and other trips. The operating cost of meeting all of the unmet demand is substantial compared to the size of the current coordinated TD system. The cost of providing additional service to meet this demand would total $471.5 million over the five-year period, or $94.3 million per year. The annual cost of unmet demand by trip purpose is shown in Figure ES-6. Of the annual need, $33.0 million would be required to meet all of the estimated unmet demand for medical trips, $18 .9 million to provide work and educational trips, $9.4 million to provide shopping trips, and $33.0 million to provide social, recreation, and other trips. Given the scarcity of financial resources, the commission obviously must consider ways of regulating the amount of this demand, as well as increasing the supply of trips, if unmet demand is to be substantially reduced. Medical Trips Education/ Worl< Trips Shopping Trips SccioV Recreation/ OtherTrips $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 FIGURE ES. Annual cost to meet unmet demand. 10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The number and cost of additional vehicles required during the five-year period to handle both the expected supply of trips and the remaining unmet demand for trips are shown in Table ES-2. These forecasts include new vehicles for increased service and those required to replace old vehicles. It is assumed that average trip lengths and service effectiveness will remain constant through the for ecast period and that there is minimal or no excess vehicle capacity. To provide the forecasted supply of trips, 324 additional vehicles will be required each year as replacements and for service expansion at a cost of $10.0 million. To meet all of the demand for service (i.e., the expected supply plus the remaining unmet demand), a total of 830 additional vehicles would be required each year at an annual cost o f $25.7 million. These forecasts do not include additional vehicles that may be added by m operators to provide ADA complementary paratransit services on behalf of ftxed-r9ute transit operators. TABLE ES-2. Forecasts of Vehicle Needs, 1992-1996 . .. . . > .. Forecast Type Frv.Yoar AYerage Total Annual ... < ; . > : ; '+- "' .. : . ...... \.. . , .. .,.-;,;.;::i;E!.. ... ': ' .. ... Number of Vehicles 1 ,619 324 Cos.1 of Vehleles $50.189 ,000 $10,037.800 ; . .. ; .. .. .. . . .;(.,,, ; ...... .,.Q, .... . .. .. Number of Vehicles 2.532 506 Cost of Vehicfes $7S 492.000 $15,698 ,400 t I '" p .. . .. ... .... tid De" '*'(f tJ.. .. P.""'''" .. t4: . . :;;. ; ... . .. . .. .. N .. : Number o f Vehlel.s 4 ,151 830 Co$t ot Vehlei&S $128 681 ,000 $25,136,200 11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12