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An analysis of the impacts of Florida high speed rail


Material Information

An analysis of the impacts of Florida high speed rail
Physical Description:
1 online resource (8 p.) : charts, maps. ;
Florida State University -- Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis
Florida -- Dept. of Transportation
University of South Florida -- Center for Urban Transportation Research
Florida Overland eXpress
Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis
Center for Urban Transportation Research
Place of Publication:
Tallahassee, Fla.
Tampa, Fla.
Publication Date:


Subjects / Keywords:
High speed trains -- Economic aspects -- Florida   ( lcsh )
High speed trains -- Environmental aspects -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Railroads -- Passenger traffic -- Planning -- Florida   ( lcsh )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )


Includes bibliographical references (p. 8).
Additional Physical Form:
Also available on the World Wide Web.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis, Florida State University, and Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida.
General Note:
Title from cover of e-book (viewed Aug. 4, 2011).
General Note:
At head of title: Ececutive summary.
General Note:
"Prepared for the Florida Department of Transportation and Florida Overland eXpress."
General Note:
"June 1997."
General Note:
This executive summary was developed from two reports entitled: "An analysis of the economic impacts of Florida high speed rail" and "Travel time, safety, energy and air quality impacts of Florida high speed rail."

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University of South Florida Library
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University of South Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 030274554
oclc - 745132943
usfldc doi - C01-00411
usfldc handle - c1.411
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An analysis of the impacts of Florida high speed rail
h [electronic resource] /
by Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis, Florida State University, and Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida.
[Tallahassee, Fla.] :
b Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis ;
[Tampa, Fla.] :
Center for Urban Transportation Research],
1 online resource ([8] p.) :
charts, maps.
Title from cover of e-book (viewed Aug. 4, 2011).
At head of title: Ececutive summary.
"Prepared for the Florida Department of Transportation and Florida Overland eXpress."
"June 1997."
This executive summary was developed from two reports entitled: "An analysis of the economic impacts of Florida high speed rail" and "Travel time, safety, energy and air quality impacts of Florida high speed rail."
Includes bibliographical references (p. [8]).
Also available on the World Wide Web.
High speed trains
x Economic aspects
z Florida.
High speed trains
Environmental aspects
Passenger traffic
2 710
Florida State University.
Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis.
Dept. of Transportation.
University of South Florida.
Center for Urban Transportation Research.
Florida Overland eXpress.
i Print version:
t Analysis of the impacts of Florida high speed rail.
d [S.l. : Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis; Center for Urban Transportation Research], 1997
w (OCoLC)48260304
Center for Urban Transportation Research Publications [USF].
4 856


Executive Summary An Analysis of the Impacts of Florida High Speed Rail Center for Ecqnomic Forecasting and Analysis Flocida State l.!niversity ... . ( J . ., r . . : .. . . ; .: . . . . : :


E xECUTIVE SUMMARY A N ANALYSIS O F THE IMP ACTS OF F LO R IDA HIGH SPEED R A I L INTRODUCTI O N & STUDY FOCUS ------Thi s Excc\ Summary presencs the findings o f two studies: the -firsl if'l )titJed An Antd)3is of Eco n fmtic Imp""" of FlorU/a High Speed Rai l a n d the second t t nided Trtwel Time Sa{et), Ene'' and Ai r Qu(ll.ity Jmpacu th Florid(!. 1\vo companion techn i cal reports provi de m ore d etailed discussi-ons of che m e thodo logies and findings o f the studies. T he Florida high speed rail project will have a signifi .. cant impact o n che state of Florida creat ing t housands of job Opportunities. stimu l 3ting economic devel opmenr serving and e ncou r a ging tourism, a nd pn.widin g in creas<.-d c::lpacity. Trave l ers will save. c os t alld energy whil e traveling o n a s:.lfcr a nd lc:;s po lluting mode. T he d iversiot) of passellgers from a u to to hig h speed (ail will result in 1.4 m illion fewer auco t rips in 2010. T he di\ er;;ion of pa...:;senger;; from air co high J>pted rail wiJl result in 60 rhou sand fewer ai rcraf t fligh[S i n 20 10. F l or ida high speed rail will serve 1.11 6 b illion pas senger miles o f cmve l in 2010. An average of 5,380 person-year s o f empl oyment will be created and supported O\'er the life of the high .:;peed r:.lU f ra n chise During t h e four pc:::.k c ons t ruction che pro ject wiJl i ncrease econom i c activit}' by $1.667 billi on (1997 dollar$) per year i n F l o r ida A traveler shift ing from auro co high speed rail from Tampa to Miami could be expec t ed c o save 2. j hOUr$ of travel time per trip. An a i r or a uro traveler -Shi fting w high speed rail betw ee n Miami and Orlando in ZOIO would be expected to reduce pollutant s by 80 poun d s and redu c e energy consumption by the e quiva le nt of 4 .7 gallons of ga:;oline. Based on the expected shifts o f demand, the F l orid a high speed rail project would be expected to p r event 389 auto accidents .380 a u t o accident i njur ies and 5 auto fatal ities annual!,. This analysi.s employed the mos t sophisti cated eco nomic modelin g too l s current l y av-ailable. Two ___ __JL_ __ ecl )nom i c impact assessment mc)l.lo::l s were i nit i ally used ro the e co nomic impacts on the s t ate of F l o r i da of i mplementing the high speed cail pro. j ect The first model was th e U.S Dcpartmem of Comm e rce Regio n a l Input Output Modeling System (Rll-.fS II) whk : h is a static modd.l The other mod d is a dynamic. inte grated input o utput eoonomeuic model. Regional Ecl'momic Model, Inc (RE.t>.fl). } The REM I model, usc.-d in th i s t epo n i s c::lpable o f measuritlg th e impacts o f o( e conomi c flows over extet)ded periods o f time. T h i s model i s widely a t ceptcd a .nd has been used extensively ove r two decade10 by private, p\ l bli.c and researchers to simulate the eco nomic impact $ o f investme n t poliq options. T he allal) s i s a iSl) iJ)corpo nned fina ncial d at a (md s hip estimares produced and provi ded t o researcherS t h e Depa r tment o f Tnmsp<.lrt3tio n FLORIDA OvERl.A.'lD EXPRESS (FOX) t e a m memberS. 4 T h e p roject ed costs :;l.nd n.:vcnues for th e sys, cem are maj o r (acr ors in evaluating the viab-i1ity ()(t h e high speed rail proj ect. Consequenr ly. over lhe life of t h e changc.os i n fare revenues, or co s t s o ( opera c i on could affect che resuJ ran r financial (ea sibi1ity and th e subsequent economic benefits o ( the high speed m i l p r o j ect.5 Similar ly, the p r ojec ted numbe r of ride r s is a prerequis i te to realizit1g the t ravel ti m e a nd conges ti on reduction benefirs estimated i n this report.ll Othe r b enef i t c.alculations. S\ICh ;,l s safety improve.mems en ergo, savings and air qualiry benef'its are depc ndem on che ridership forecasts a n d a var i ety of esr:imares o f the e x pected perf on)1ance o f high speed a nd comper ing modes, ov er c ime. A number o f technica], financial . r idership and ec < P n.oroic fea s i b ility sndics o v e r the l ast dec ade established the feasibilit) of hi g h speed rail i n the rapidly u rban izing corridors of centra l a 1 ld south florida. These studi e s also served a s a oockdrop and foundation for t h e c u rrent ana lysis T he eval uation i n this current study i s a melding of the mooc recent s h ip constructi on a 1 )d operation cosc.s p r ojected revenues. and o ther financial data into a comprehensive economic imp act a.SSt!$Smcnt.! CEFA-------AN A NAlYSI S O f THE I MPACTS Of fi.ORIOA H t G H SPEE D RAil 2


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND Investments in Transpo rta tion Tr;;a.nsportati on f u lfills many social needs and i$ ered an component o f the infrastructure of today's society. Investments in transportation represent slgni.ficam economic bet\efl.ts to the conununity through the moveo1em of peop le and goods. These benefits accrue ditecdy to those who usc the i nvestment as well as indirectly to th.ow who may not use a particular mmspor tatiou facility. Some benefits. such as the eco nomic s timu lus and employment increa ses from consuucdon. are a direc t resul t of the dec i sion to i nvest in F1orida high speed rail . Other bcncflcs. such as ings in energy, travel time, safety and are depend ent on the r i dership and the ac tua l performance of high sp e ed rail in comparison to a l ternative fonns of tra n .sf.(>rt over chc Lif e of the proj ec t These bcncA.ts are deten nined based on rhe best cun:en t estimates of ridcr. ship a n d the performance characterist ics of <1k. a uto 3nd high speed rail travel Growth and limitations F l oruja has e xperi enced populati on and t o ur ism growth over the past few decades vircoalh unrivaled elsewhere in the United States. Consi d erab le progress bas been made in expanding Florida's highways, ports, airports and public transportation. systems; however growing dema nd continued r o o utpa ce the supp l y of new transpo r tatio n capac ity. In addition. it is becoming increas ingly d ear that the costs and consequences of un limited expansion of Florida's r oadways are more than can be borne b y ou r environment and by the taxpayers-. High S peed Rai l Alternative The Florida D epartment of T ransportation has aggres. s ively sought alternatives t o meet the travel needs of Florida residents and tourists while still being responsi# ble stewards o f the environme n t an d public r erources. In this search the pto$peCt of i mplementing a high speed roil system for florida began in 1982 and is currently m a ndated by the 1 992 Florida High Speed Rail Transponation Ac t Meanwhile, high speed rail has grown more attractive as modem rail techno logy has p r oven it self in an increasing number of travel markets across the g1ohe Florida's rapi d population and tourism growth, fiat t opography. clu s[et of la rge urbanite d areas, and growing de.nsities have c reated a cravel market that in part, may best be sexved by a tr'Jnsportation that includes high speed rail. Part of an Integrated Multimodal System The propooed Florida high speed rail project is not a sing l e cure.-all for the pressing travel congestion prob-lems fac.iog tbe store. High speed rnil is, however, one of AN ANAI.YSI$ or THl. IMPACTS Of fLORIDA H IGH SPEtD RAIL 3


[XECUTIVt SUMMARY several pivotal tl:'o:msportacion investments needed within the intcgmted in(r;;.structurc o ( the !:iUltC tO resolve these growing concerns The Florida high speed rail project is designed t o complement other mc.,des o ( travel. Ic will serve a s an impS('s conne<:cions with five major airprtati on system. AN ANALYSIS O f Til[ IMPACTS Of fLORIDA HtGH SPttO RAil 4


Tr a veler Benefits Troveler benefits are estimated b y comparing the fore casted performance of the proposed system with the: forecasted perfor:mance of auto and a ir m-odes . Estimate$ arc d eve loped from che ridership fore.casc (and somce of travelers, i.e., shift from ail; shift from auto. and induced) and che comparative performance of the l co n o n .. users in the fonn of tirne savings from reduced congestion were also esci .. maced and included among the input s to the economi c impact assessment. TIME High speed rail tr ave lers who shift fiom autO and air can be expected to $ave an annual average of 3 8 millio n hours of time over the 2004 to 2043 rime period. The t ime savings reflect the sum of the esti .. mated door .. co .. door trav e l time differences. SAFETY Inremationally, high speed rail has attained an exceptional safety record which i s assumed to conti nue h't Florida operat i ons. Historical mn.ds in air and auto safety are used as a basis for decennining the of accidents, in juries, an d t hat might be avoided by the shUts of tr ave lers to high speed rail ENERGY&sed on forecasted 2010 and 2035 condi tions, the presence o f the high speed rai l servi ce should reduce transportat i on enerm consumption This savings is the equivalent of 16.2 mHiion gall.ons of gasoli ne o r 386,000 barrels of oil or 1.674 billion British thennal units in 20 1 0; and 21.2 m illio n gallons of gasoline or 506,000 barrels of oil or 2.111 British thermal units in 2035. AIR QUALITY High spcc

EXECUTIV[ SUMMARY I ECONOMIC IMPACTS ----;-----Methodology 11\e basic assu mption o f chis eco n o m i c impacr ana lysi s i s rha c benefits flow from impr<, wements in t ra t \ s ponarion systems {e. g reduc ed rravel t i m es and associated c osrs) and from new do1lars a ttra cte d tO a n a r e a T hus, s imp l y taking caxpayer o r pri vat e l;CCt.Or dollars a nd spen ding t hem on rranspottari o n as o pposed t o an alt ern ativ e \.IS.C will not necessarily c.reate t he same positive eco n omic impacts Realizin g p ositive b tl)efits require s the inflow o f new res ources (private sector and fed eral i nvestmen t i n economic activity} and /o r the realitari o n of rransponat i o n benefits to trav e l ers that re s u l t in produ c ed by the new inves t .. mem Thi$ analysis e v a l uat e s t he expecte d direcr an d indirect cha 1 )ge.s in emp l oymem. income, a .od n es s ac.thriry t hat would be accribut a b le co cons tr ucdng and o p c r::tti.og the h i gh :;p eed r ail pro .. j eer i n F l orid a These impacts r es ult from n e w money stim ulams c o the Florida economy that would o thcrwil;C not exis t l1\ th e s tare' s futu r e T he ec o n omic i mpacts measured in thi s rep<.>n ;.'I('C ooly a porti on o f the t ota l economic benefit s Lhat can accrue ro Flo r i d a from this i nv e scmem. Inflow of New Money as Economic Stimulus The d ecision to implement a h i gh s pee d rail projec t i n Fl orida. res ult s in flows of money int o th e state's economy. The a n a lysis o f econ o m i c impac t s r eq uir es a n u n-dcrst;.'lndi n g o f the flows o f money a nd che c O n$Cquem::es tluu they have o n th e econ .. o m y of Florida and the affecced regions. A proj ect of chis m agni t\lde will :-1 complex i nte r ac t ion w irh rhe s t ares economy Investm ent fond s cc.lm.c fwm scvc r 3 l so\ n ces: rhe s tate the federal govern me:nt tu)d rhc private sector Tl\c principal effects o f this inve stlllcnt come fr

CONCLUSIONS The Florida Speed Rail l'xo j e

EXECUTI V l SUMMARY I T H E RESEARCHERS CIFA--The Florida S t ate Univ e rsity Cente r for Economic Forc..'Castin g and An::tlysis (CEFA ) $pecializes in a p p l y ing a d vanced economic e v aluation an d forecas ti n g m.odd$ t h at e x amine an d h elp re s o lve pressing p u b lic policy issues confront i ng the s'atc of F lorid a. T he Cente r cond ucts appli ed e conomic re.'iearc:h and edu c a tion a l tr aini n.g a cross a wide range o f pub lic p o licy ;;lrcas. CEFA s ta f f has _,. IIIIIMflrll .. --dcC3des of applie d research l eadership in a n umber of important public and pri v a t e policy ::treas. They i n cl ude e xper ti s e in public tf(lnsporta ti o n (with spccial iu..-d k n owlc;.-dge in t h < ;m.:as of high s pe<..-d rail and magneti c l evitat i on t ec hnology asses smemh health ca r e financean d policy; tax ati o n and fiScal issue s; heahh and prop e rty insurance; and env i r o nmenta l la n d use) e n e rgy ::tnd pl::tnning issues. The C e nt er for Urban Tra n spo rta t i on Research (CUTR) at he Univers it\' o f South F l orid a cond \ JCTS a broad ronge of policy research a dd ressing l ocal sta t e, and nationa l tr an spo rta tion issues. Wich a muh i di s .. dplinary staff o ( n ea r l y 40 full .. timc r esearchers a n d 20 g r adua t e assist an ts) CUTR con ducts more chan $ 5 m illi o n i n s p onsored r esearch annually S in<::e it.s establishment in 1988 by t h e Florida legis lature, CUTR has comp l eted in e xcess o f ZOO projocts, "alued at nearly $30 m i llion. C U T R houses the N a t ional Url.lan T!lln s it In st i tute an d t h e edito ria l office o f the Journal of Public w ith it s distin guished Editorial Board. I n che nine years sin ce-ils inception CUTR has b e come Ol'le o f the top--ranked transponati.o n research ce nter s in the counny ENDNOTE S l All references t o do1lars i n th is repo rt are i n 199 7 d ollars. 2 Regi()711)1 M ultipliers' A Users Handbook for !he Regi o n a llnputOurput ModeUng System IRIMSUJ, U.S Dep artment of Com m e r ce Economics a n d Sta dstics, 1992. J Treyz, G eorge I R egioMl Economic Modeling, A Sysremalic A pproach 10 Econmnic Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Norwell, MA' K l u w er A c ademic Publishers 1993. 4 T he i nfo r mat i on p r ov ided ro the resear<::her s b y Florida D epa r[meJ\t o f T r a nsportaci on and FOX was basM on actua l quancit)' of estimates) locall y .. b a s ed u ni t prices o f mate-rial. la bo r co install) staffing of c on str u e .. don ::tnd operati-onal phases, an d mai mcna n cc o f th e S)':it Crn durin g t h e franch ise p er Florida Depa r tme nt o ( T ransportat i on franchise agr e ements: FOX Proposa l daced Octobe r 3 1 1995; P os t # Franchisc Agreemem dated August 2 1996 : Pre-Ce rtificatio n P o s t-Franchise Agreemen t d a t e d N ovemb er 12, 1996. 5 FOX wiU be i mplement ing maximum y ield p r kit'tg a.s cmrt(lt l y e n ploy<..-d by the airlin e it1du s uy and oth e r trans pot ( ati o n providers. 6 In add i tion t o the 1993 Florid a Dep;mmenc ofltansp ort3tlon ridership st\ldy f orec ast incorporntcd in rhc FOX prOp<:>$al, two i ndependen t rid ership St u dies a r e current! ) being co nduct<..'rida High Speed Rail, 1997. N umbers have b e e n 1 2 A c co r d i ng to ac c epted in dustry stan dards, a jo b is defined as one person employed full time for one year 1 3 L ynch, T. and Polzin, S .. An of rhe Economic /mparida High Speed lloil, 1997. Numbers ha"e been roun d ed. AN ANALYSIS OF TH IMPACTS Of fLO R IDA HIGH SPEED R A i l