Loss and disillusionment : the short-term effects of evacuation in the Mount Tungurahua area, Ecuador

Loss and disillusionment : the short-term effects of evacuation in the Mount Tungurahua area, Ecuador

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Loss and disillusionment : the short-term effects of evacuation in the Mount Tungurahua area, Ecuador
Schumann, Christiana E.
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Tampa, Florida
University of South Florida
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viii, 137 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.


Subjects / Keywords:
Eruption, 1999 -- Tungurahua, Mount ( lcsh )
Evacuation of civilians -- Ecuador -- Mount Tungurahua ( lcsh )
Dissertations, Academic -- Applied Anthropology -- Masters -- USF ( FTS )


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Thesis (M.A.)--University of South Florida, 2001. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-124).

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University of South Florida
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028871815 ( ALEPH )
50731601 ( OCLC )
F51-00162 ( USFLDC DOI )
f51.162 ( USFLDC Handle )

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LOSS AND DISILLUSIONMENT: THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF EVACUATION IN THE MOUNT TUNGURAHUA AREA, ECUADOR by V CHRISTIANA E. SCHUMANN A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Anthropology College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida December 2001 Major Professor: Linda M Whiteford, Ph.D., M.P.H.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are a number of people I would like to thank for making this thesis possible. First, I would like to thank the Center for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance for funding the research project on which this thesis is based Without their financial support, this research might not have been undertaken. Second, I would like to thank Dr. Linda M. Whiteford and Dr. Graham A. Tobin, who were the two principal investigators for the research project. Besides providing me the opportunity to work on the research project, they have provided continual advice and support for this thesis. Third, I would like to thank the three other researchers who were a part of this project: Linda Callejas, Lucille Lane, and Ivan Salgado This thesis is based on research conducted as a group effort. Without their work, this research would not have been accomplished. Finally, I would like to thank Dr. Kevin Yelvington for his guidance and advice with this thesis.


TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables lV List of Figures v Abstract Vl Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Internship 3 Project 4 Focus Of Thesis 5 Anthropological Contribution 8 Anthropological Perspective 8 Anthropological Methods 11 Policy 13 Thesis Organization 15 Chapter IT: Background 18 Ecuador 18 Tungurahua Province 23 Chimborazo Province 24 Bafios 25 Ambato 26 Quimiag 27 Mount Tungurahua 28 Evacuation 33 Return 35 Chapter ill: Literature Review 38 Ecological Framework 38 Definition ofDisaster 40 Vulnerability and Risk 42 Dis asters and Developing Countries 45 Volcanic Disasters 46 Effects 47 Mitigation and Preparedne s s 49 Effects of Evacuation 52


Chapter IV: Methodology Time Frame Sample Evacuees Control Group Government Officials NGO Officials Research Methods Questionnaire Focus Groups Open-Ended Interviews Direct Correspondence Document Review Newspaper Reports Data Analysis Research Questions and Hypotheses Ethical Considerations Chapter V: Results Perceptions ofEffects Risk Finances Health Perceptions of Assistance Government NGOs Chapter VI : Analysis and Discussion Perceptions of Effects Risk Finances Health Perceptions of Assistance Government NGOs Discussion Chapt e r VII: Conclusion Recommendations 1 Increase Educational Activities 2. Prepare Communities for Influx of Evacuees 3 Create Registry of People Living in High-Risk Areas 4 Develop Shelters for Livestock 5. Small Livestock Voucher Program ll 55 55 56 57 59 60 60 60 61 62 63 63 64 64 64 66 68 71 71 71 73 76 80 81 82 84 84 85 88 92 95 95 97 100 105 106 108 109 110 110 111


6. Suspend Utility Bills in Evacuated Areas 7 Create a Food Subsidy Program for Evacuees 8 Distribute Soap to Shelter Residents Conclusion References Appendices Appendix A: June 2000 Questionnaire 111 111 112 112 113 114 125 126


LIST OFT ABLES Table 1 Number of Interview Participants (Evacuees-2000) 57 Table 2 Number of Interview Participants (Control Group2000) 59 Table 3 Risk-Chi-Square Results 72 Table 4 Agricultural Loss Chi-Square Results 74 Table 5 Economic Problems Chi-Square Results 75 Table 6 Symptoms of Respiratory Problems Chi-Square Results 77 Table 7 Symptoms of Digestive Problems Chi-Square Results A 78 Table 8 Symptoms of Digestive ProblemsChi Square Results B 79 Table 9 Government AssistanceChi-Square Results 81 Table 10 NGO Assistance Chi-Square Results 83 lV


LIST OF FIGURES F igure 1 Map ofEcuador 20 Figure 2 Hazard Map for Mt. Tungurahua 31 Figure 3 View of Mt. Tungurahua and Bafios 32 Figure 4 Bar Graph of Risk Responses by Evacuation Status 85 Figure 5 Bar Graph of Agricultural Losses by Evacuation Status 89 Figure 6 Bar Graph ofPerceptions of Government Assistance by Evacuation Status 96 Figure 7 Bar Graph ofPerceptions ofNGO Assistance by E vacuation Status 98 v


LOSS AND DISILLUSIONMENT: THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF EVACUATION IN THE MOUNT TUNGURAHUA AREA, ECUADOR by An Abstract of a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Departm e nt of Anthropology College of Arts and Sc i ences University of South Florida December 2001 Major Professo r : Linda M. Whiteford, Ph.D M P.H VI


When a volcanic hazard threatens to affect directly human settlements near it, one mitigation strategy is to evacuate the people living nearby. Although the goal is to protect human lives, this action can often have unintentional adverse effects. One such case has been that ofMt. Tungurahua in Ecuador. In August 1999, Mt. Tungurahua became active again after many decades of inactivity. By October 1999, the government evacuated over 25,000 people as a strategy to protect them from the volcanic threat. Mt. Tungurahua did not have the major eruption that was predicted, but the evacuation has had many unanticipated effects on the communities that were evacuated. This paper is based on interviews conducted by a team of University of South Florida researchers in June 2000 with 131 people affected by the volcano. The sample of people involved with the interviews is divided into three groups, which are based on the interview participants' situation during the time of the interviews: evacuated, returned from evacuation, and never evacuated. The evacuated group includes people living in shelters and relocated communities. In the returned group are people who, by choice, went back to their home communities. The group of people who had never been evacuated carne from a community near Mt. Tungurahua that is not in direct danger of volcanic activity. This group acted as a control. The results of this research indicated that some of the short term effects of this evacuation have been diverse perceptions of risk, higher self-reported agricultural loss for the evacuees higher self-reported digestive problems for the evacuees, and varied perceptions of the assistance provided. Regarding perception of risk, the group that returned early to their home communities expressed a much lower level of worry about the volcano than those who were still evacuated and had never been eva cuated. Vll


Agricultural loss was reported to be greater for all the evacuees in compari s on to the control group Digestive problems were reported only by those who had been evacuated The results also suggest that of the agencies that provided services people perceived NGOs more favorably than the government. However, these perceptions often differed according to evacuation status. Maj ofessor : Linda M. Professor, Department of Ant Date Approved : --++--+-+=--.....,._...__... _____ Vlll


CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Volcanoes are one of the Earth's most alluring physical features. They often add beauty to the landscape, as well as provide rich soils that entice people to settle and farm in the areas surrounding them. While certain types of volcanoes remain continuously active, others can be dormant for many years sometimes i nstill ing a false sense of security in the humans that live near them. If eruptions are not in the people's living memories, either experienced or based on stories told by earlier generations, the true dan gers posed by nearby volcanoes might not be believable. Although volcanoes present attractions that can be of great benefit to humans, they also have the potential of causing much harm such as death and destruction. People living near volcanoes must sometimes choose whether the benefits outweigh the dangers. As human scientific knowledge about volcanic activity has developed, we have gained tools, such as monitoring and prediction, to help alleviate the dangers that volcanoes can present. Even with the scientific capabilities of prediction, the ability to forecast accurately a volcano's activity remains unattainable; only estimations of possible eruptions can be given While scientific knowledge has given humans the tools to help avoid volcanic dangers this knowledge itself does not stop disasters from occurring Just as volcanic activity remains uncontrollable, so does human behavior. Humans try to reduce the negative effects of volcanic activity through policies of mitigation that attempt 1


to decrease individuals' risk and exposure before a hazardous event occurs. These efforts such as evacuation of high-risk areas, can be successful in removing people from harm's way. However, mitigation efforts are not always successful in persuading people to leave high-risk areas. Furthermore, the same mitigation strategies put forth as a means to reduce risk and exposure can sometimes create crises for those people involved This thesis is about a situation in which mitigation efforts created a disaster without the volcano even having a major eruption. Mt. Tungurahua, which is located in the central Andean highlands of Ecuador, became active in August 1999 after over 70 years of quiet. By October of that year, the activity had increased and the volcano was predicted to have an 80% chance of eruption (Agence France-Presse 1999a). To help mitigate the effects of a major eruption occurring in the future the government mandated the evacuation of high-risk areas. Some people evacuated voluntarily, although others were eventually forced to leave by the military. Around 25,000 people evacuated. Although this evacuation was meant to protect people, it had negative repercussions for all people involved. Through research conducted by a team ofUniversity of South Florida researchers in June 2000 some of the short-term effects of the evacuation have been documented, as well as perceptions about the assistance given to those affected by the volcano. Within this thesis I present some of these results and attempt to explain what they might mean. I also offer some recommendations for policy changes and actions that might be taken to possibly reduce the negative effects in any future evacuations. In this Introduction I discuss my internship, as well as explain the research project that was part of the internship and on which thi s thesi s is based I then review the 2


particular focus of this paper. Finally, I describe the outline and progre ssio n ofthis thesis. INTERNSHIP As part of the Master's program in Applied Anthropology, my internship has been to work as a research assistant for a grant funded by the Center for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CDMHA), which is located at the University of South Florida in Tampa, FL (Tobin and Whiteford 2000) The CDMHA was founded in 1998 and is focused on humanitarian assistance in the Latin American and Caribbean region, particularly concerning disaster mitigation, response and rehabilitation. The organization's mission is ... to facilitate collaborative education, training research and information and communication services between disaster response and humanitarian agencies (e.g., the military, NGOs, PVOs, e tc .) primarily throu g h th e western h e mi sp h ere (CDMHA 2000). From April2000 until April2001, I participated in a resear ch grant titled "Modelin g the Role of Women in Determinin g Household Health in Post-Disaster Environments" that has b een funded by the CDMHA. We conducted this research in the areas su rrounding Mt. Tungurahua in central Ecuador. My superv i so r s for this project h ave been the two principal investigators, Dr. Linda M. Whiteford from th e University of South Florida Department of Anthropology and Dr. Graham A. Tobin from the U niv ers ity of South Florida Department of Geography. The other members ofthe research team included L inda Call ejas, a Ph.D. student in Applied Anthropology, Lucille Lane a M.A. stu d ent in Geography, a nd Ivan Salgado, an Ec uadori an research assis tant. 3


PROJECT The research grant that has served as my internship experience focused on the effects of disaster, including issues of health, sustainability, and gender. The research took place in communities near Mt. Tungurahua that were forced to evacuate in October 1999, as well as the communities where people found shelter during the evacuation period. The entire research team made two trips to Ecuador, one trip in June 2000 and another in January 2001. Interviews and focus groups were conducted during these two trips with people who had been evacuated. The two principal investigators also made two additional trips to Ecuador, during which they met with policy-makers and government officials involved with the evacuation. The methodology used for this research has incorporated various anthropological methods. Included in our methods have been interviews, structured and open ended, as well as focus groups. The exact method s are discussed in detail in Chapter Four. We were able to collect information on people's experiences with the evacuation, their losses since the evacuation, their health within the past six months, and their perceptions of the ass istance that was g iven during the evacuation period. This research grant ha s allowed for a study of volcanic di sasters and the effects of an evacuation policy, while u s ing the particular situation ofMt. Tungurahua as a case study. Although there were certain economic and political conditions in Ec uador that made this s ituation uniqu e, the decision to evacuate communities a lways has social, econom ic, and political repercussions on the people involved. However, it is important to stress that the effec ts of evacuation, and disasters, differ greatly b e tw e en developed and 4


developin g countries. Considering that the majority of the highe s t-risk volcanoes are located in developing countries (Voight 1 99 6 :76 2), the results ofthis research might be applicable to other developing countries facing similar problems with volcanic hazards This is especially the case with rural areas that are threatened by volcanic activity. FOCUS OF THESIS The research conducted as part of this study has encompassed many different aspects of the possible effects of the evacuation of an area at high risk of being destroyed by a volcanic eruption. My responsibility within this research project focused on two critical issues associated with the evacuation: 1) self-reported short-term effects and 2) perceptions of assistance. I have arranged the responses given by interview participants into three groups according to their particular situation, or evacuation status, during the June 2000 interviews. The groups include those people who were evacuated retumed from evacuation, and never evacuated. Often, these groups have had different experiences during the evacuation, which account for the diversity within the responses. The two research questions and subsequent hypotheses that I addres s in this thesis are as follows : 1.) What are the self-reported short-term effects of a government mandated evacuation on a population at risk of bein g affected by a volcanic hazard? Ris k : It i s h ypothesized that risk perception differs by ev acuati o n status The s ituati o n of eac h group will influence how people perc ei v e the risk that the volcano poses. 1 .1) Evacuation status affects perception of risk Finances: It is hypoth es ized that the evacuated and returned g r oups reported greater financial los s since the e vacuati o n than the n eve r evacua t e d group 5


1.2) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of agricultural problems (including: loss of crops, loss oflivestock, inability to plant) 1.3) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of economic problems (including: loss of bank funds, lack of money, devaluation) H ea lth: It is hypothesized that the evacuated and returned groups reported more health problems since the evacuation than the never evacuated group. 1.4) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of respiratory problems 1 .5) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of digestive problems 2.) What are the perceptions of the assistance that has been given to people affected by the volcano? Government: It is hypothesized that perceptions of assistance differ according to evac uation status The situation of each group will affect perceptions of governmen tal assistance. 2.1) Evacuation status affects perception of government assistance NGOs: It is hypothesized that perceptions of assistance differ according to evacua tion status The situation of each group will affect perceptions of NGO assistance 2.2) Evacuation status affects perception ofNGO assistance These questions are important for a number of reasons. First, the short-term effects of the evacuation need to be understood because th ey address issues that are significant in people's lives, specifically worry, livelihood, and health Second, th ese effects likely influence people's decisions to remain in safe areas or return to high-risk areas. Third, an understanding of th e factors that caused problems for evacuees could lead to changes in evacuation policy and implementation. Policy changes could, in the futur e, help to mitigate the negative consequences of evacuation, leading people to more 6


willing participation in efforts, such as evacuation, which are meant to protect them. This is especially vital for the communities near Mt. Tungurahua because the volcano continues to be active. The question concerning individuals' perceptions of assistance is also important to understand because it, too, could influence people's decisions to remain inside or outside high-risk areas. Furthermore, this question serves as an indicator of people's trust in governmental and non-governmental agencies' involvement in the evacuation. Again, knowledge about these perceptions could influence future policy decisions about how evacuations are organized and carried out. The results of this research indicate that some of the short-term effects of this evacuation were diverse perceptions of risk, increased agricultural loss, and increased digestive problems. Regarding perceptions of risk, the returned group reported much lower levels of worry than did the evacuated and never evacuated groups. Self-reported agricultural loss was much greater for both the evacuated and returned groups than for the never evacuated groups. This implies that agricultural loss was one of the major impacts of the evacuation. Digestive problems, such as diarrhea and upset stomach, were only reported by individuals within the evacuated and returned groups. Not one interview participant in the never evacuated group reported digestive problems. The other two tests within short-term effects, economic loss and respiratory problems, did not appear to be unique to the evacuated group nor the returned group. Economic loss was reported by the majority of respondents within each group. This type of response can be expected considering the difficult economic and political situation within the past few years in Ecuador. Respiratory problems were reported across all three 7


groups. Although there were slight differences in the percentages of respondents within each group reporting respiratory problems, these differences were not great enough to be deemed significant. The results from this research also indicated that perceptions of assistance varied greatly by evacuation status groupings. Overall, all three groups perceived NGOs as having provided more assistance than the government. Regarding both government and NGO assistance, the group that returned from evacuation perceived that much less assistance had been given than did the evacuated and never evacuated group. The analysis of these results will be discussed in more detail within Chapter Seven. ANTHROPOLOGICAL CONTRIBUTION In the study of disasters, anthropology can provide an important perspective to better understand the circumstances leading to disasters and the impact of these events on the people involved. Through both its approach and its methods, anthropological research can help to develop a better understanding of disasters. The knowledge gained from research influenced by anthropological methods can then be applied to evaluate current policy which, in turn, can help influence future policie s and decisions. Anthropological Perspective The wide range of perspectives that are a part of the disci pline of anthropology can be beneficial to disaster research Anthropology does not rely on one perspective to understand events, but allows the inclusion of multiple perspectives. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith (1999) provide an overview of some of the anthropological perspectives that can be useful within disa s ter studies. These perspectives include developmental comparative multiple levels of focus gender, age, and ethnicity. Anthropology also 8


brings the ernie perspective, which helps researchers understand events from the perspective of those involved. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write that ... the developmental and comparative perspectives of anthropological research ally with the particular environments of disaster research" (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1999:2). This approach can be very important to disaster research. Rather than testing new approaches to hazardous events every time they occur in a community, the knowledge gained from comparisons can be used Furthermore, general conclusions can be drawn from the summation of many individual events (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1999:3) Those making decisions can learn what programs worked and which ones did not work in other communities. By comparing events and policies, it might be possible to develop better-suited approaches to disaster events The inclusion of multiple levels of focus is another perspective that anthropology brings. Depending on the particular situation, researchers within anthropology can focus on the micro-level or the macro-level. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write that "Anthropology places the small against the large and contrasts the circumstances of one society against another" (1999:3) The ability to do this can be advantageous in disaster research because it allows for the consequences of disasters to be better understood. It also allows researchers to investigate the larger social structures that affect individuals. Anthropology also brings to disaster research its perspective that focuses on factors such as culture, gender, age, and social class Indeed, anthropology's focus on these factors within communities questions the practices ... that lead to unequal shares of safety" (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1999:3). Culture, which can be briefly defined as 9


consisting of" ... group patterns ofbehavior and beliefs which persist over time" (LeCompte and Schensul1999:21), is an especially important consideration in studying disasters because of its influence on perceptions of risk. These perceptions are often influenced by the particular factors that direct a group's beliefs and actions. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write concerning risk perception, "Food, money, social position, and preferred lifestyle might outweigh jeopardy" (1999:9). All of these factors affecting risk perception, and subsequent action, are influenced by the roles that gender, age, and social class play within a cultural group. Another key aspect of the discipline that is important in the study of disasters is the ernie perspective, which attempts to understand the world, or particular events, from the viewpoint of the people involved. Chambers writes about what can occur when the e rnie perspective is applied : "Cultural differences between the investigator and the subject of inquiry are reduced when anthropologists strive not only to discover what people think, but also share in their thinking" (1985 :6). Anthropological research is based upon research participants' views, explanations and interpretations of events (LeCompte and Schensul 1999 : 12) When attempting to understand the consequences of disa ster s, it is crucial to know the perspectives of all people involved including those personally affected, as well as thos e of the decision-makers. The beliefs of people involved in disasters can influence how the event is perceived and what actions are taken. In the research project from which this thesis has developed, we included all the aforementioned perspe c tives However, the perspectives of multiple levels of focus, gen der, age culture, and ernie most influenced the research. We designed the project in an attempt to unde rstand the evacua tion of the Mt. Tungurahua area in October 1999 from 10


multiple lev els. On the micro-level, the research included the individual experiences and per spectives of people directly involved in the evacuation. The ernie perspective was utilized when we gathered data about these individuals to better understand not only the viewpoints of participants in the evacuation, but the perspectives of people who made decisions about the situation. On the macro-level, the research looked at national and internation al issues, both political and economic, that influenced the decisions made about the evacuation. This project was also designed to better understand how factors such as gender, age, and culture might influence peoples' evacuation experiences and perceptions. Anthropological Met/rods The methods that are used by anthropologists in research can provide useful tools for people studying disasters and their impacts. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write, ... anthropology has contributed to disaster research its keystone methodologyethnographic fieldwork" (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1 999:3) Ethnography can be seen as a problem oriented method (LeCompte and Schensul1999:5), which a llows it to be flexible enoug h for disaster research. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write that ethnography h as added breadth to the study of disasters with its ability to investigate how communities interact with their environments over long periods oftime (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1999:3). It should be stressed that ethnography includes not only qualitative methods but also employs quantitative methods. LeCompte and Schensul write, Ethnography is often mistak e n for qualitative research Qualitative research is a term used to describe any res earc h that uses the wide variety of qualitative data collection techniques available ... Qualitative research can be descriptive, u se d as 11


part of a quantitative research de s ign, or used in the development of quantitative measures (1999 : 4) (Emphasis by author) The blending of qualitative and quantitative research is often necessary when studying disasters. Whereas the qualitative data can contextualize the experiences of people involved in disaste rs, the quantitative data can provide a larger scope to the results. Some of the methods that are used in ethnographic research include use of a natural setting, interviews, and focus groups. Ethnographic methods incorporate research in a natural setting, not in a laboratory Typically, anthropologists do not create or manipulate the research settings, but study an existing situation (LeCompte and Schensul 1999:1 0) However, it is possible to be involved in what Bernard calls "natural experiments" while doing research He writes that natural experiments ... are going on aroun d us a ll the time. They are not conducted by researchers at all -they are simply evaluated" (Bernard 1994:57). Disasters are natural experiments that reveal how cultures and societies operate. Hoffman and Oliver-Smith write, "Disasters bring into intense focus matters ofhuman adaptation ... Disasters reveal basic aspects ofhow a society conforms to the features of its physical environment and the crux of its survivability" (Hoffman and Oliver-Smith 1999:3). Therefore, it is necessary that researchers have methods that can function in such circumstances. Int e rviews are a key method in anthropological research Through interviews qualitative and textual data can be collected (Schensul, Schensul and LeCompte 1999). There are m a ny different ways to approach interviews. They can be unstructured, semis tructured or s tructured (Schen s ul Schensul and LeCompte 1999; Bernard 1994). The 1 2


use of all three methods of interviewing can be advantageous in the study of disasters because they provide different approaches that might be needed in data collection. Focus groups are another method used in anthropological research. Schensul writes that they provide an ability to generate a large amount of data in a short period of time and to probe participants' reactions to topics and each other. Focus groups also allow researchers to elicit insights that might only arise in a group setting, learn idiomatic expressions or common terminology and have the participants tell a history of a situation or an event (Schensul 1999:52-59). The research project on which this thesis is based incorporated many of these research methods. The project relied heavily on the combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative approaches included interview and focus groups to better understand personal experiences with the evacuation. However, the research team also used structured interviews to provide quantitative data on the larger-scale effects of the evacuation. The use of both qualitative and quantitative methods was necessary for this project. The qualitative data was essential in comprehending how this evacuation had an impact on people's lives. The quantitative data then reinforced whether these reported experiences and perspectives were unique to individuals or whether they were common to larger groups of people. By providing both types of data, the research results reinforce one another, which is especially important with disaster research. Policy The knowledge gained from anthropological research on disasters is based on the ernie perspective of those involved in the disaster event. The research results develop from the experiences of people affected by a disaster, and thus become a reflection of th e 13


success or failure of a government's policies for mitigation and response. Ervin defines policy as follows: Policy suggests plans, principles, guidelines directives, intentions, and an anticipation of future actions and results or the avoidance of undesirable circumstances. Significantly, policy assumes that thoughtfully directed social actions can lead to desirable outcomes. Policy implies foresight and planning; policies provide blueprints for actions (2000:41). When conducting research that has policy implications, Hess writes that it should aim to answer such questions as, "How was this policy implemented? Why did it work the way it did? How did people react to the policy? Were there unforeseen consequences or problems that were not expected?" (1999:110-111). When studying disasters, all of these questions need to be considered. Mitigation and response policies for disasters are important factors in a community's ability to endure the experience. Since these policies aim to help people mitigate or recover from a disaster, their actual implementation needs to be understood. Anthropological research can be involved in all stages of policy regarding disasters. Chambers identifies four stages within policy. They include formulation, planning, implementation, and review (1985 : 41) Formulation concerns the initial ideas for policies, whereas planning develops specific program activities. Implementation occurs when the policy is put into action. Finally review assesses ... the effectiveness and impact of these prior implementations" (Chambers 1985:42-44). If res earc h into disasters can answer Hess' questions about policy, all four stages can be influenced. A review of a country's disaster policy can serve as a critique, but what is more important is that it can lead to new ideas for policy formulation that are based upon peoples' needs and their prior experiences. It can also lead to new miti ga tion and response plans as well as 14


implementation, which incorporate cultural and local workings. Without research that strives to understand how disaster policies actually work for the people involved, then mitigation and response measures might not be able to protect the very people for which they have been created. This research project has focused mainly on the implementation and review of policy regarding the evacuation of communities near Mt. Tungurahua in October 1999. The research for this project took place in June 2000, which was during the evacuation period, and in January 2001, which was after the evacua tion ended The longitudinal nature of this research allowed for an evaluation of how mitigation and response policies have been implemented and what these effects have been. During our research in June 2000, we were able to include in our study people who were still living in shelters and resettlements, which allowed the researchers to evaluate both the implementation and effects of parts of the evacuation policy. When we returned in January 2001 the official evacuation had ended, which allowed us to focus on the effects of earlier policies to mitigate the effects of a potential eruption ofMt. Tungurahua. The results of our research can then l ead to suggestions on future policy formulation. THESIS ORGANIZATION This thesis has been organized into seven chapters, with each chapter building on the previous Following this introduction is Chapter Two, the Background In this chapter, I present information that is crucial to understanding the context of the volcanic hazard and evacuation, the research project as well as the results. I include information about the country and the particular areas of research I a l so briefly illustrate the history 1 5


ofMt. Tungurahua and explain the series of events that led to the evacuation in October 1999. The third chapter is the Literature Review. The topics that are discussed in this chapter are related to both the research questions and the subsequent analysis of the results. This thesis utilizes an ecological framework Following the discussion of the framework, I provide definitions of disaster, vulnerability, and risk. I then discuss the impact of disasters on developing countries. In the next section, I review the literature on volcanic disasters and the documented effects of evacuations. Finally, I present the contributions from anthropology that helped to guide this research project. Beginning with the fourth chapter, Methodology, I discuss the research undertaken as part of the study. I first review the time frame of the research project. I then outline the sampling strategy and methods used by the research team. Following this, I discu s s the methods of analysis that I am using particularly for this thesis. This section includes the research questions guiding this thesis as well as an overview of what statistical tests were run. Finally, I address some of the ethical issues involved in this research project. Within Chapter Five, Results, I present the results of chi-square tests of independence to help answer the research questions presented within the Methodology chapter. I also include a brief analysis of each test indicating which tests are significant and which one s are not. In the following chapter, Analysis, I explain the results of the tests that I have run and discuss some of the factor s that might have influence the tests' outcome s Finally I provide an overall analysi s of the short-term e ffects of e vacuation. 1 6


In the final chapter, the Conclusion, I briefly discuss the current activity ofMt. Ttingurahua. Also within this chapter I provide some recommendations that are based on the results of this research. These recommendations attempt to lessen the negative impacts of an evacuation should the Mt. Tungurahua area be evacuated again. Some of the recommendations might also be applicable to other rural areas in developing countries that are facing volcanic hazards and possible evacuation. 1 7


CHAPTER TWO BACKGROUND To better understand the context of the Mt. Tungurahua evacuation situation, as well as the research project and its subsequent results, I present background information about the region in thi s chapter. I first provide information about the country and the specific areas where research took place including information on the population and economic activities. I then present a basic description and history ofMt. Tungurahua Following thi s, I explain the series of events that led to the evacuation. Finally, I briefly review how and when the evacuees returned to their homes. ECUADOR Ecuador is a sma ll country, 276 840 square kilometers, lo cated in the northw estern comer of the South American continent (IMF 2000:5) Its coast runs along the P acific Ocean, and its interior boundaries border Colombia and Peru There are thr ee main regions in Ec uador : the Pacific coast, th e Andean highland s (sierra), and th e Amazon region (oriente). Thirty-one active volcanoes run along the Ecuadorian Andes (Reut e r s 1999b ) Although its landm ass i s small Ecuador ha s one of the highest population den s itie s in South America (USAID 2000). The country's population is currently es timated to be aro und 2.5 million (CIA 2000); more than half of which (55%) makes its home in u rban areas, with the res t ( 45%) residing in rural areas (INEC 1990). According 1 8


to data collected in 1995, Ecuador's population resides mainly on the coast and in the mountains. These figures show that 49.8% of the population live in the coastal region, 44.8% live in the Andean highlands, and 4.6% live in the Amazon region (P AHO 1999:240) The gender composition of Ecuador is balanced, with females making up 50.3% of the population and males 49. 7% (INEC 1990). The majority of the population ( 60%) falls into the age bracket of 15-64 years, followed by 35% of the population in the 0-14 year bracket, leaving 5% in the 65 years and over bracket (CIA 2000). The ethnic groups that exist within Ecuador are difficult to accurately describe, as there are many ways of approaching the definition of ethnicity. Since ethnicity is not the focus of this thesis, I do not go into detail about the population's ethnic identification. Therefore, I refer to categories that have been developed by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, which arranges the groups as follows: 55% Mestizo, 25% Amerindian, 10 % Spanish, and 10% Black (CIA 2000). Ecuador is a democratic republic that is divid e d into 20 provinces (provincias). These provinces are further subdivided into re g ions (cantones), and then parishes (parroquias). (See Figure 1 for a map of the country and provinces.) The executive leader of Ecuador is the president who is elected for one 4-year term (Britannica 200 1). The current pre side nt of Ecuador is Gustavo Noboa who took office in January 2000 after a military coup ousted former president Jamil Mahuad The coup was forced by rebellion of a coalition of indigenous peoples who were incensed about the country's econo mi c problems and lack of e mployment. This coalition of indi genous groups was 19


supported by a military junta that was successful in forcing Mahuad to step down (CNN 2000b). Figure 1: Map of Ecuador Peru 0 I 0 1992 Magellan GeographiXSHSanta Barbara, CA (000) 929-4627 (CNN 200 1 ) 20 Ecuador 0 Nt.lion Capilal @ Pro'liloo Capital lnlemolional Border Pro 'Iii co Border Road Rt.lroad :so too I I I 50 1 50 km I I 100 mi


IMiillll activities include farming, fishing. dmd 1fk m Ecwdor is bananas, which is a major e xpolflt C!l>.ffJflre :awrull fo r export, however to a muc h l essetr tfuao (IIW" WiittllniinD. the fishing industry products includ e t!nJum;al cmooll aJ$ k ll1lDO$lt Dmportant export product (Murph y 1999::4]])} 001 il$ rum Ecuador. In 1999 the oil industry M.71 1llllliiiiiiOOr lbxantme!l$ ff w 13. 6 million barrels of refined oD.ll ((ll!MJF 2IDXOXID::ll@J] .. 'IDI!xe tfi.ln:e lllliXllSt lhmllermttiiomtl M onetary Fund report o n Ecuadm, by 7 5%, and infl atioo !kiD ((lllWliF :wxoJD).:71)}. S!mm.ke ltllifttlme &ctors leading to the se econ o mi c iiun CIDiill allrrrriirng 1998 and a weak bankin g syst e m (IMF JQill .lMlantdJn cnlbmJdk lJecllaJre.d by t he go v ernment whic h shu t dQW1\ .1Fwm1tllnemlllre, Ecuador offic i ally adoptoo U . S .. k iinn m effort to s t o p inflation (BBC 2000) .. tfue WJIIOOOems plaguing the country, In prev i o u s years, the a5 and utilities, whic h ofhm ttiD aJfiffm<.dl $ttmull1lg in J 998, man y gaooline, nnd (IM.f


Many of the economic changes made by the Ecuadorian government, such as the implementation ofthe U S. dollar and the removal of subsidies, were initiated as a means to appease international lenders such as the International Monetary Foundation (IMF), the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Banlc In 1999, Ecuador defaulted on its $16 billion international debt (CNN 2000a). Therefore, the country needed to negotiate under the lender's terms to receive any future financial aid. The former president, Mahuad, began the process of implementing the economic measures in 1999 At the time, Mahuad acknowledged that he was proposing the changes in hope of receiving loans from international lenders (CNN 1999a). In March 2000, after President Noboa came to power, the U.S. dollar was officially adopted as Ecuador's currency Once the U.S. dollar was officially accepted, Ecuador received a $2 billion aid package financed by the aforementioned international lenders (CNN 2000a). Statistics collected in 1999 indicate that 28.7% ofthe population was employed, 56.9% was underemployed, and 14.4% was unemployed (INEC 1999a). The rate of unemployment appears to affect females at a greater rate than males. In the age range of 18-29, the female rate of unemployment was 30.2% compared to the male rate of 15%. In the group of people aged 3039, the females registered an unemployment rate of 15.9% and the males a rate of6% (INEC 1999b). These economic problems have had a direct impact on the people of Ecuador. In 1999 the same year ofthe evacuation, it was estimated that 40% ofthe population was living in poverty, and 15% was living in extreme poverty (Il'v1F 2000:9). This can be compared to data from the mid 1990s, which show that about 33% ofthe population was liv in g in poverty, with 10% 12% living in extreme poverty (Il'v1F 2000:67). The 22


economic resources that do exist are spread out unequally among the population with the richest 10% accounting for 41% of total household expenditure (IMF 2000 : 1 0) The IMF report on Ecuador states that much of the poverty is concentrated in rural areas, and that for the rural economically vulnerable households ... even a relatively small decline in incomes and consumption would shift them below the poverty threshold" (IMF 2000:67). Many of the participants in this research project came from rural households in the Tungurahua and Chimborazo provinces TUNGURAHUA PROVINCE The province ofTungurahua is located in the central Andes. The political divisions ofTungurahua include nine cantons. Within this province are Bafios and Ambato, two towns where the research was conducted The town of Bafios was evacuated because of the threat of Mt. Tungurahua, and many people found shelter in nearby Ambato There are approximately 361,980 people living in the province There are 210,428 (58 % ) people living in rural regions of the province, and 151,552 (42%) living in urban areas (ExploRed 2000f). The major economic activities in Tungurahua Province include agriculture, tourism, and industry. Agriculture ranks as the most important economic activity in the province The province provides 55%80% of Ecuador's fruit for domestic use (ExploRed 2000g) Tourism is also very important, especially for the town ofBafios The industrial activities that take place in the prov i nce include textiles, confections, and leather goods These industries employ around 3 000 people (ExploRed 2000g) 23


Indicators ofthe standard of living in Tungurahua Province show that 56.52% of children under the age of five suffer from chronic malnutrition Furthermore, approximately 68.2% of all houses have basic sanitation, only 40 1% have indoor potable water, and 89 .5% have electric services (lnfoplan 1999). CHIMBORAZO PROVINCE The province of Chimborazo is also located in the central Andean range and neighbors the Tungurahua province. Chimborazo includes ten cantons, including Riobamba, where research took place. Villages and small towns on the southern flanks of Mt. Tungurahua were also evacuated in October 1999. One ofthese communities attempted to resettle in a small town named Quimiag, which is located in the Riobamba canton. There are approximately 364,682 people living in this province Similar to Tungurahua province, the majority of the residents live in rural areas. There are 244,869 (67%) people in the rural zones, and 119,813 (33%) people in urban zones (ExploRed 2000a). The major economic activities in Chimborazo Province include agriculture, industry, and tourism The agricultural production in the province is diverse, including cereals, vegetables, and fruits. The most prevalent industries in the province include cement, mineral, and metal (ExploRed 2000b ). Tourism is also significant for the province, with visitors coming to climb Mt. Chimborazo (ExploRed 2000e) Some of the indicators for the standard of living in Chimborazo Province include approximately 61.52% of children under the age of five who are chronically 24


malnourished. The basic needs met include 50.3% of the houses with basic sanitation, 35.1% with indoor potable water, and 74.5% with electric service (Infoplan 1999). BANOS Bafios is the town most at risk ifMt. Tungurahua were to erupt. With approximately 18,000 residents within the town, the majority of the evacuees came from this area (Mothes 2000). In June 2000, when we conducted our first round of research a few thousand people had already returned to their homes from the evacuation. We interviewed people in Baiios who had chosen on their own to return to a high-risk area The town of Baiios is found in a valley north of the volcano (Baiios de Agua Santa 2000) with the Vazclin and Ulba valleys descending from Mt. Tungurahua into the town (Hall et al. 1999). East of the town of Banos is the Pastaza River, where the Agoyan dam was built to generate power (Hall et al. 1999) The town is 1 820 meters above sea level (Banos de Agua Santa 2000), with nearby Mt. Tungurahua reaching 5,016 meters (Murphy 1999:58). Baiios li e s within the political boundaries of the canton o f Baiios and the province ofTungurahua. This valley is one of the most important in the province because of it s agricultural production (ExploRed 2000f) Since it is in a valley, only two land routes connect Bafios to the rest of Ecuador. One route is to Ambato, which is about 45 km wes t ofBaiios. The other route i s to Puyo, a town in the Amazon region which is located over the Andes to the east ofBafios Bafios has been called "Puerta del Oriente" or the "Gateway to the Rainforest" because its location in the Andes makes the Amazon easily acce s sible Indeed the town's history is intertwined with its pro x imity to the rainfores t 25


with its founding in 1570 as a missionary base to reach the Amazonian indigenous groups (Regina Angelorum 2000). The major economic activities in the town ofBafios include tourism and agriculture. With its intriguing and beautiful natural features such as the mountains, Mt. Tungurahua, hot spring baths, waterfalls, and its proximity to the rainforest, Bafios is a popular tourist attraction. Consequently, tourism has developed into one of the most important economic activities in the area (Bafios de Agua Santa 2000) According to a current travel guide, Banos is a popular destination for both Ecuadorians and foreign tourists. Information from 1998 shows that there were over 80 hotels, over 90 restaurants, and over 15 tour companies in the Banos area (Murphy 1999:200-201). In 1997, Banos received around 10% of Ecuador's tourists by land and 24% of Ecuador's tourists by air (OAS 2001). AMBATO When the evacuation occurred, the majority of people went to Arnbato to find shelter (Agence-France Presse 1999b ). It was chosen as one of our research sites because many evacuees came here during the evacuation period. We were able to conduct interviews with people still living in a government shelter in Arnbato. Our main focus of research in Arnbato was the shelter where people lived until September 2000 Arnbato is the capital of the Tungurahua province and is located within the canton of Arnbato. There are approximately 160 ,302 people who live in the city of Arnbato (Murphy 1999:196). The city is best known as "La Ciudad de Flores y Frutas," or "The City of Flowers and Fruits" (Murphy 1999 : 196; ExploRed 2000j), indicating its strong agricultural ties and mild climate. Arnbato is also the major economic center of 26


the Tungurahua province, especially for trading and markets Its location in the province makes it almost equidistant for people from all areas to come and do business (ExploRed 2000g) The older generations living in Ambato and its surrounding towns are familiar with the effects of natural disasters In 1949, the city was almost completely destroyed by an earthquake (Murphy 1999 : 196). QUIMIAG Quimiag is an agricultural community with about 1,700 residents. It is located at 3,000 meters above sea le vel, making it a suitable location to grow potatoes. The village i s flanked by mountainsides where people farm The town has a small center square that is surrounded by a Catholic church, small stores, and homes. Quimiag is a small rural community located in the province of Chimborazo and in the canton ofRiobamba. It has been included in our study because around 35 families who were living in high risk areas near Mt. Tungurahua attempted to resettle in Quimiag. These families came from las faldas de Tungurahua or the slopes of the volcano. The majority of this group came from the town ofPenipe, which is south ofMt. Tungurahua. When community leaders in Penipe became aware of the government's plans to evacuate the high-risk areas, they traveled to Quimiag to discuss the possibility of moving community members there. The families that did move to Quimiag were considered to have auto-evacuated, or evacuated of their own free will. The resettled group was provided with temporary land to work on, and homes where they could stay for a short period of time. The land was provided by the Ministri es of Agriculture and Health, as well as local re s id e nts of Quimiag. The resettl e d group formed a cooperative and were given additional s upport from the Ministries of 27


Agriculture Health to pursue economic endeavors, as growing potatoes, greenhouse tomatoes, and chickens. MOUNT TUNGURAHUA Mt. Tungurahua is one ofEcuador's most active volcanoes (Hall et al. 1999). The volcano is also known as "the black giant" (Lentz 1999:160), and in Quechua it is known as the "throat of fire" (Reuters 1999b ). Ecuadorians commonly refer to this volcano as Mama Tungurahua. The volcano has been classified as a stratovolcano (Simkin and Siebert 2000:1381), which can be briefly defmed as "A volcano constructed of alternating la yers of lava flows and pyroclastic flows" (Walker 2000 : 283) On the northern side ofMt. Tungurahua are the towns ofBafios Patate, and Pelileo, as well as the Pastaza and Patate Rivers. The towns ofPuela, Bayushig, and Penipe and the Puela river can be found on the southern side ofMt. Tungurahua. To the west of the volcano are the towns of Cotalo and Pillate, and the Chambo river. On the east side ofMt. Tungurahua is the town ofMinsas, and the Pucuyacu and Ulba rivers (Hall et al. 1999). Historical records indicate that Mt Tungurahua has experienced four major erup tiv e episodes. These eruptions took place in 1641-1646, 1773 1781, 1886-1888 and 1916 1918 (Hall et al. 1999). Simkin and Siebert (2000) extend the time period of the 1916 eruption until 1925, rather than 1918 These e ruptive periods have been registered in the historical record, which has been develop e d out ofhuman observation. These record s lack instrumentally recorded seismic activity, leaving the information about the volcano in co mplete (Simkin and Siebert 2000: 1365). Along with these major eruptive episodes, Mt. Tungurahua has also been report e d to have erupted in 1857, 1885, 1900, 28


and 1944 (Simkin and Siebert 2000:1381 ) The volcano has most commonly produced pyroclastic flows lahars, and lava flows. A brief definition of a pyroclastic flow is that it is a concentrated gas-solid dispersion with a flow velocity of up to 160 m/s, and a temperature between 100 C and 900 C A small pyroclastic flow might travel between 5-10 km, whereas a larger flow might travel up to 50-100 km and encircle the volcano The duration of a pyroclastic flow is estimated to be a few minutes (Blong 1999:680). The effects of pyroclastic flows on humans include bums from the deposits, with the main causes of death being asphyxiation and thermal distress (Nakada 2000:953). The term lahar comes from Indonesian and means ... a stream of water mixed with more rock than normal..." (Rodolfo 2000:973). Blong (1999) further defines lahars as volcanic mudflows They contain debris such as boulders as large as houses and other organic materials. The flow only begins with a thickness of a few meters, but can increase volume as it continues downstream, allowing a lahar to reach possible heights of tens of meters. Lahars can typically travel great distances up to ten kilometers or more. They commonly block channels, rivers, and lakes with their debris. After a volcanic eruption, the risk of a lahar continues for months to years (Blong 1999 : 680-681 ). Lahars do not always need an actual eruption to occur. Because of this constant danger, lahars are known as . .the most deadly and destructive volcanic phenomenon," often resulting in people and towns being buried (Rodolfo 2000:974). Lava flows are another possible hazard that Mt. Tungurahua could produce. The speed of lava flows depends on the steepness of the volcanic slopes, the thickness of the lava, which can range from 1 meter to tens of meters and the composition of the lava. 29


The lava flow also has the capability to pick up and transport objects. The flow typically follows the geographical depressions, therefore creating the possibility to flow for many kilometers (Blong 1999:678-679). According to Blong, direct deaths from lava flows typically occur when the flow is fast moving or there are water flashes (1999 : 688). Hallet al. (1999) describe the eruptive periods ofMt. Tungurahua, shown in Figure 2. During the eruptive period of 1773-1781, the major effect was a large lava flow that ran down the north-northwest side of the volcano. The Pastaza river was dammed for several days because of the debris. Lahars were also produced during this eruptive period and debris flowed into the V azclin valley. Bafios escaped extreme damage during this eruptive period (Hall et al. 1999). The 1886 1888 eruptive period caused pyroclastic flows on the west-northwest s ide ofMt. Tungurahua, as well as lahars. These lahars flowed down the Vazclin and Ulba valleys, with the largest flows heading southwest to the present-day community of Puela. Additionally, a lava flow dammed the Chambo River (Hall et al. 1999). During the 1916-1918 eruptive period, pyroclastic flows occurred on the north northwest flanks of the volcanoes, with the flows going into the Vazclin valley Lahars also flowed into the Vazcun and Ulba valleys during this eruptive period (Hallet al. 1 999). 3 0


Figure 2: Hazard Map for Mt. Tungurahua 0 1 2 3 Huambalo + (Hall et al. 1999) This information presented about Mt. Tungurahua by Hallet al. (1999) was collected before the volcano became active again in 1999 At the time ofthe writing, the authors suggested that Mt. Tungurahua's cycle would be 100 years. Within the paper, the authors indicate that the areas expected to be most at risk include those on the northern and western flanks, which includes the town ofBafios. The major hazards include pyroclastic flows and lahars running through the V azcun and Ulba valleys into Bafios. 31


Please see Figure 3 for a picture of the valleys leading into Bafios. The authors also postulate that a future collapse ofMt. Tungurahua is possible Figure 3: View of Mt. Tungurahua And Banos (Hall et al. 1999) The predictions set forth by Hall et al. (1999) concerning a 1 00-year cycle were not completely accurate; however, they were not completely off the mark. In August 1999, Mt. Tungurahua became active again when it emitted a kilometer-high column of steam (Mothes 2000). In mid-September, the volcano's activity level increased to the point at which a yellow alert was ordered, which meant that an eruption would be possible in the coming weeks, months or years (Reuters 1999a). When the alert level was increased, the Civil Defense activated an emergency operations center and conducted evacuation exercises between September 26-28, 1999 (OCHA 1999a) 32


By early October, rocks and ash were being ejected from the crater (Instituto Geophisico 1999a), and were accompanied by increases in the emission of sulfur dioxide (OCHA 1999b ) In response, the Geophysical Institute recommended the evacuation of Baiios in case of an eruption (Mothes 2000). On October 14, ashfall was noted on the western and southwestern flanks ofMt. Tungurahua (Instituto Geophisico 1999b ) A few days later, on October 16, the Geophysical Institute announced that the volcano had entered an eruptive state. This was followed by the alert level being increased to orange, meaning that an eruption could happen within days or weeks (Xinhua 1999). Experts predicted that Mt. Tungurahua had an 80% chance of erupting (Agence France-Presse 1999a) This prediction was especially critical for Baiios because of its location in a valley with only two escape routes. If a major eruption were to occur, it would only take about six minutes for a pyroclastic flow to reach Bafios (Mothes 2000). During this same period, President Mahuad flew over Mt. Tungurahua in a helicopter to view the situation After this experience, the president ordered the evacuation within two days of all people living in areas near the volcano (Mothes 2000; Xinhua 1999) The afternoon of Sunday, October 17, 1999 was made the deadline for all people to evacuate (CNN 1999b) EVACUATION When the evacuation was first ordered, it began as a voluntary evacuation Soon thereafter, the evacuation was changed to mandatory (CNN 1999b) It was reported that by October 16 over 10 000 ofBaiios' residents had been evacuated (IFRC 1999). Mothes (2000) indicates that many people decided to evacuate on their own after seeing the volcanic activity This activity included heavy ashfall and incandescent rock explosions 33


on the western side ofMt. Tungurahua on October 17 (Institute Geophisico 1999c). According to one news report this event prodded around 325 families to evacuate (Agence France Presse 1999a). The mandatory evacuation was set for Sunday, October 17 at 6:00PM. The residents in the high-risk areas were warned that if they did not evacuate voluntarily, they would be forced to leave (Agence France-Presse 1999a). The areas that were affected by the mandatory evacuation included Banos, Penipe, Puela and Bilboa (OCHA 1999c); in total, there were about 60 locations involved (OCHA 1999d). The Ecuadorian military was in charge of the compulsory evacuation of these communities (Reuters 1999b ). Around 600 military personnel and police were brought into the evacuated areas under orders to protect property and possessions (OCHA 1999d) During our June 2000 visit to Ecuador we interviewed 94 people who had been evacuated Out of those 94 people, 64 (68%) stated that the military forced them to evacuate. Thirty people (32%) said that they left voluntarily Many ofthose people who were evacuated by the military were still very angry about the experience. One reason for this anger was their beliefthat after they left military members did not protect their belongings. They said that they believed that the military had used the evacuation as an opportunity to steal their belongings and food By October 21 it was reported that 23,000 people had been evacuated The majority went to the town of Ambato (Agence France-Presse 1999b ). Around 1,500 2,000 people were housed in temporary shelter in old schools in the provinces of Tungurahua Chimborazo and Pastaza (Agence France-Presse 1999b, 1999c; OCHA 1999d). Other people found shelter with family and friends in the region (Agence France Presse 1999c). 34


RETURN The return of the evacuees to their home communities has occurred over an extended period of time. Some people who lived high in the mountains broke the evacuation orders and returned after a few days of evacuation. One man, whom I interviewed in January 2001, told me that he had returned to his home and land only a few days after being forced to leave. He and his neighbors had joined together to protect their homes and belongings. He told me that, with only machetes to defend themselves, they halted the military from forcing them to leave again We do not have any data indicating how many people disobeyed the government's orders. Residents of the evacuated areas were allowed to briefly return to their homes on October 31, 1999, to collect their belongings. The residents were only allowed into the area in groups of30 people and were accompanied by members ofthe military It was reported that most of the people wanted to collect their animals (Agence France-Presse 1999d). An Associated Press news report (1999) indicates that on November 3, 1999, around 300 people tried to return to their homes to gather personal items, as well as to feed their animals The military would not allow them to enter and ended up firing tear gas at the people as a deterrent. In the months following the evacuation Mt. Tungurahua remained active, but did not have the major eruption that had been predicted. During the months ofNovember and December people became impatient with the situation and wanted to return to their homes According to an article by Mothes (2000), which documents the progression of events, on December 30, 1999, Banos residents again confronted the military. Like before, they were stopped by the military from entering the town. However, on January 5, 35


2000, the situation escalated and several thousand Bafios' residents challenged the military once again. This time, people worked together against the military and carried machetes, sticks, and stones. They were successful in breaking through the blockade and returned to Banos. Following this incident, an agreement was reached between the residents and the government that allowed them to return to their homes However, residents were required to sign release forms that freed the government from liability for any future effects ofMt. Tungurahua (Mothes 2000) In March 2000, the Geophysical Institute estimated that between 2,000-2,500 people had returned to Bafios, and around 2,000 people remained in shelters or relocated areas (Instituto Geophisico 2000). However, it should be noted that the exact number of people living in shelters was unknown by government and NGO officials. In September 2000, the alert level had been lowered to yellow only in the canton ofBafios, while the other areas remained in orange alert. Yellow alert means that an eruption could occur within months, whereas an orange alert means that it could occur within days At this time most res i dents had already returned to the Bafios area According to a news report in La Hora de Ambato, approximately 20,000 people had returned With the alert level at yellow, the mayor ofBafios called for the return of all people who were still living in shelters in neighboring communities He also said that the government would provide vehicles to assist the residents in moving back to Banos (La Hora de Ambato 2000). During our January 2001 visit we interviewed former shelter res idents from Ambato Out of the 27 former shelter residents interviewed 10 had been a ss isted by the military in their return home 36


During our research trip in January 2001, we discovered that many of the people who had been a part of the resettled community in Quimiag had returned to their homes People who had been involved with the resettlement reported to us that there had been many problems with the resettlement, including the loss of housing and crops, and difficulties in communal work. Some of the people who did return to their homes continued to travel back to Quimiag for their work in the cooperative. In the following chapter, I review the literature that is relevant to this research project. The information presented in this Background chapter, along with the Literature Review, is crucial to the understanding ofthe research results. Many of the results are heavily influenced by economic and political situation that Ecuador faced at the same time as the evacuation. 37


CHAPTER THREE LITERATURE REVIEW As part of this thesis, I reviewed the literature relevant to the evacuation of the high-risk area surrounding Mt. Tungurahua. I first discuss the ecological anthropology framework that I am using to approach this research I then define what disasters are in relation to this framework. Following this I define vulnerability and risk, two terms that are often used in the discussion of disasters The next three sections review the literature on disasters in developing countries, volcanic disasters, and the effects of evacuation The final chapter reviews the perspective that anthropology can bring to disaster research ECOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK Within this thesis, I appro a ch the analysis using an ecological framework This approach is typically concerned with localized research and focuses on human behavior within larger social contexts These contexts can be categorized into levels such as family communit y and society What is of importance in the ecological framework are the relationships that exist across these levels (LeCompte and Schensul 1999 : 52) The ecological framework also acknowledges the constant interaction of humans with nature; they are not separate entities existing side by side. It is through the interaction of humans with nature that resources, as w e ll as hazards are created (Burton, Kates and White 1993 :31 ). With this perspective, di s as t ers are viewed as ... neither unfore s e e n nor 38


isolated problems They are int e gral parts of the spectrum of man-environment relat i ons ... (El Masri and Tipple 1997 : 3) The ecological framework also incorporates the study of human social systems themselves The inclusion of social systems is often termed politi cal e cology or socio political ecology. With this approach, there is an understanding that the interaction of humans with the environment is i nfluenced by . socially generated and politically enforced productive and allocative patterns" (Oliver-Smith 1999:29-30) Therefore it is necessary to analyze social systems which can be viewed as ecological networks that are linked through relationships It is through these relationships that information people and resources move (Peacock and Ragsdale 1997 : 22). Within social systems, the most critical components determining survival are power and resource distribution which can influence human interaction with the environment (Peacock and Ragsdale 1997 : 23) According to Oliver Smith the ways in which social systems adapt to their environment can create safe or vulnerable conditions for humans Furthermore within complex social systems, which stratify power and access to resources, certain groups often exi s t that are able to obtain higher security, leaving others at higher risk (Oliver-Smith 1999 : 29). The use of a political ecological framework reveals the competing int e rests of humans within social systems and the result of those struggles (Dyer and McGoodwin 1999:213). This is especially so when studying disasters because they ... create contexts in which power relations and arrang e ments can be more clearly p e rceived and confronted" (Oliver-Sm i th 199 6 :31 0) 3 9


DEFINTION OF DISASTER How disasters are defined often depends on the perspective of the person using the term. According to Oliver-Smith, "Multiple, yet similar, definitions of disasters arise exactly according to the specific purposes or goals of various disaster endeavors" (1999:20). In this thesis I focus on the impacts that natural disasters have on human lives Therefore, the definition I present relies on the role that humans play in the creation of disasters Before defining what a disaster is, it is important to differentiate it from a natural hazard Tobin and Montz write that a natural hazard ... represents the potential interaction between humans and extreme natural events." Hazards continually exist because humans are not separate from their surrounding environment, but constantly interact with it (Tobin and Montz 1997 : 5-6) A hazard can also be seen as a potential for damage or loss, particularly for people who are vulnerable (Smith 1996:5; Hewitt 1983:5). A disaster occurs when a hazard either natural or manmade affects a population of people in a state ofvulnerability, which has been produced socially or technologically (Oliver-Smith 1996 : 303) The impact includes not only death and economic losses, but a disruption to the workings of society (Tobin and Montz 1997 : 6-7) These conditions causing disasters to occur are not unique, but are the result of everyday forces (Tobin and Montz 1997 : 12) These everyday forces can mean different things depending on a person's, a community's or a society's position in the world Disasters are ... products of the social, political, and economic environment (a s distinct from the natural environment) because 40


of the way it structures the lives of different groups of people" (Blaikie et al. 1994:3) Those lacking economic and social power are often put into a position of vulnerability, making the poss i bility ofloss much more severe (El-Masri and Tipple 1997 : 3). Different groups of people might view the same hazard in very distinct ways depending on their socio-economic position as well as their experiences with a hazard What is a commonplace occurrence for one group of people might be a disaster for another (Guami zo 1992:98). Essentially, without the interaction of humans, a hazard is simply a natural event. With the inclusion of humans, a hazard has the potential to disrupt human l i ves and human creations. As Oliver-Smith writes, ... disasters occur in society They do not occur in nature" (1999:28) Therefore, it is necessary for humans to react to the hazard either in preparation for a hazardous event or in response to an event. How a society reacts to a hazard will often influence the outcome of the disaster. According to Wijkman and Timberlake, "Disasters are social and political events which can be and often are prevented" (1994:6). Peacock and Ragsdale (1997) define disasters as social events that cause failures for social systems and networks to adapt to the natural hazard The interface of disasters and social systems is expanded on by Oliver Smith, Disasters are best conceptualized in terms of the web of relations that link society (the organization and relations among individuals and groups), environment (the network oflinkages with the physical world in which people and groups are both constituted and constituting), and culture (the values norms beliefs, attitudes, and knowledge that pertain to that organi z ation and those relations) ." (Oliver-Smith 1999 :28 -2 9). 41


VULNERABILITY AND RISK Within the definition of disaster, the term vulnerability is one that is frequently used. As discussed earlier, a high degree of vulnerability often results in disasters having much greater impact. Vulnerability always relates to a particular hazard (Blaikie et al. 1994:61) A short definition of vulnerability is that it .. .implies a measure of risk combined with the level of social and economic ability to cope with the resulting event" (Smith 1996 : 25) A more complete definition is given by Cannon : Vulnerability is a characteristic of individuals and groups of people who inhabit a given natural, social and economic space within which they are differentiated according to their varying position in society into more or less vulnerable individuals and groups. It is a complex characteristic produced by a combination of factors derived especially (but not entirely) from class, gender and ethnicity Differences in these socio-economic factors result in hazards having a different degree of impact (Cannon 1994 : 19). Vulnerability can be caused by a number of factors Although personal decisions can play a role in creating vulnerable situations, it is also the consequence of involuntary pressures with which people have to contend (O'Riordan 1986:273) As mentioned in Cannon's definition, these can include class, gender and ethnicity, as well as disability and age (Blaikie, et al. 1994 : 9) Additional factors include ... population growth, increased levels of poverty, inadequate construction, and rapid and uncontrolled urbanization" (ElMasri and Tipple 1997:2) There are different types of vulnerability that exist. Lavell (1994) has subdivided vulnerability into the categories of economic, soc i al educational and environmental. It is important to recognize the different types of vulnerability that do exist because without this knowledge, effective mitigation strategies cannot be developed 42


According to Lavell's definition, economic vulnerability is the condition of poverty People's economic resources, as well as access to additional resources, often determine the location of housing, as well as the conditions under which people live. It refers not only to individuals living in poverty, but to families communities, and governments (Lavell 1994:52). Social vulnerability is defined as "The levels of social cohesion existing within communities and their willingness or ability to organize collectively to confront common problems ... (Lavell 1994:56). Communities that are able to organize stand a greater chance of successfully mitigating a disaster. Those communities that are lacking social cohesion are less able to manage the effects of disasters (Lavell1994 : 58-59) Educational vulnerability, or informational vulnerability, is defined as both formal education and knowledge about the existing hazard and possible disaster. If people are not informed about the hazards that exist in their home communities, then it is difficult for them to respond effectively Disaster preparedness activities can reduce this vulnerability by teaching people about hazard areas, early warning systems, and response plans (Lavell 1994:59). Environmental vulnerability refers to how a community makes ... changes in the environmental conditions and balance in areas beyond their territorial limits" (Lavell 1994 :61 ). How people interact and use their surrounding environment can either strengthen a community's position, or make them more vulnerable. Alterations of a physical environment can create greater vulnerability (Wijkman and Timberlake 1984:29) 43


Cannon (1994) has also developed a typology of vulnerability. Although arranged differently than Lavell's, Cannon's typology includes many of the same issues of vulnerability, such as economic and social power He has arranged vulnerability into three types: livelihood, self-protection, and social protection. Livelihood vulnerability is similar to economic vulnerability It refers to income opportunities, type of work, assets, savings, and health status (Cannon 1994:21) Blaikie et al. have defined livelihood as ... the command an individual, family, or other social group has over an income and/or bundles of resources that can be used or exchanged to satisfy its legal rights as well as tools, land or other physical resources" (1994:9). Vulnerability is produced when access to these resources does not exist. Accessibility is often the result of social and economic relationships, which are often influenced by such factors as class position, gender, ethnicity, age, and action of state (Blaikie et al. 1994 : 48; Cannon Self-protection vulnerability refers to the location of people's homes or work, and includes building quality and hazard protection. The particular location where people are spending time can make them more vulnerable or less vulnerable to a hazard. Additionally, technical ability or availability is also an important determinant of vulnerability Access to technical security is, again, often determined by factors such as class position, gender, ethnicity, age, and action of state (Cannon 1994:21 ) Social protection is the third type of vulnerability presented by Cannon. Social protection is similar to self-protection, but refers more to build i ng regulations and technical interventions. The determinants leading to this type of vulnerability are the same as previously mentioned Along with issues such as class, gender and age, major 44


factors leading to this type of vulnerability include the state's or dominant group's actions. The state's ability to protect its citizens depends on its level of scientific knowledge, level of technical practices, and the type of science and engineering used (Cannon 1994:21 ) Risk and vulnerability are inter-connected, with risk the result of vulnerable conditions. Blong uses UNESCO's definition of risk when he writes, ... Risk =Hazard x Vulnerability, with hazard referring to the physical events produced by an eruption and vulnerability including a consideration of the consequences for people, buildings, infrastructure, and economic activity" (Blong 1996 : 675). It is the ... exposure of something of human value to a hazard" (Smith 1996:5). Risk can also be viewed as a measure of probability and the severity ofloss (Peterson 1996:703; Smith 1996:5). Risk, similar to vulnerability, should be placed into the context ofthe particular population. It is not just a technical definition created by professional experts in hazards and disasters. Oliver-Smith and Hoffman state that there is also a cultural interpretation of risk. They write, "The perception of risk is linked to the values and prioritizing of values that guide a group's behavior and affect their judgements. Food, money, social position, and preferred lifestyle may outweigh jeopardy" (1999:9). DISASTERS AND DEVELOPING C O UNTRIES Developing countries are often much more vulnerable to the effects of disasters than developed countries The loss ofhuman life is the most severe effect of natural disasters in developing countries with people facing a 3-4 times greater risk of death than those in more developed nations (Smith 1996 : 8). Indeed, out of all deaths from environmental disasters, ninety-five percent occur in less developed countries (Apetaker 1994 : 7). 45


While more developed countries often incur much higher monetary costs regarding property damage than do developing countries, the effects of property damage in developing countries is much more extreme. In developing countries, when the costs of property damage are viewed as a percentage of national wealth they are twenty percent higher than in developed countries (Anderson 1991: 17). According to Wijkman and Timberlake, the factors causing developing countries to be most affected by disasters include ... human vulnerability resulting from poverty and inequality; environmental degradation owing to poor land use; and rapid population growth, especially among the poor" (1984:27). In developing countries there is often a cycle in which the state of poverty increases the vulnerability to disasters, which, in turn, perpetuates or increases poverty (Anderson 1991 : 23) VOLCANIC DISASTERS An estimated two-thirds of the world's population lives in the volcanic region known as the "Ring of Fire" (Apetaker 1995:15). With its geographic position on the Pacific ocean, Ecuador falls into this region. Out of all the volcanoes in the world, the majority of the most high-risk volcanoes are located in developing countries (Voight 1996:762) According to Smith, around 80% ofthe most active volcanoes on Earth are subduction volcanoes, which are the most explosive types. One type of subduction volcano is a stratovolcano that is made up of alternating layers of ash and lava (Smith 1996 : 155). Mt. Tungurahua is classified as a stratovolcano (Simkin and Siebert 2000 : 1381) In this section, I discuss the possible effects of an explosion of a stratovolcano, as well as possible mitigation and response to this type of volcanic hazard. 46


Effects Volcanoes can have many different effects on the human populations and natural envirorunent surrounding them. Although many of these effects can be negative, some can also be positive Since volcanoes often can provide benefits for the humans living near them, they create a predicament for those choosing to risk the negative consequences. The negative effects of volcanic hazards include the loss of life and the destru ction of human creations, such as homes, communities, and liv e lihoods According to Che s ter, there is a false perception about how much destruction volcanoes have caused (Chester 1993:186). During the 20th Century, with records untill994, there were 75,000 deaths caused by the seventeen most severe volcanic eruptions (Blaikie et al. 1994 : 168) A similar estimate of the number of deaths caused by volcanoes was given by Blong (1994) when he wrote that there have been around 650 death s per year between 19001982 The deaths that are direct results of volcanic hazards are often caused by pyroclastic flows, lahars, and ashfall. Pyroclastic flows can cau se burns, as well as asphyxiation and thermal distress (Nakada 2000:953). Lahars, also known as mudflows, often cause death because they pick up large pieces of debris that can be destructive. They account for at least 10 percent of all volcanic deaths (Smith 1996 : 159). Ashfall accounts for less than 5 percent of volcanic deaths (Smith 1996:161 ) These deaths are often the consequence of co llap sed roofing, rather than direct trauma An example of this was the 1902 eruption ofMt. Santa Maria in Guatemala that produced heavy amounts of 47


ashfall, which resulted in roofs collapsing and the death of2,000 people (Smith 1996:159). The indirect effects of volcanic hazards that can lead to death are the products of human behavior in response to the hazard. According to Chester (1993:193), ifthe response to a volcanic eruption is not well organized, the consequences might include starvation, epidemic disease, water contamination, drowning, traffic accidents, and breakdowns in civil authority. Yet, many of these effects can be prevented by well organized civil defense. The loss of human life is not the only negative effect of volcanic hazards. These above-mentioned effects, as well as many other hazards that I have not reviewed, can damage or destroy human settlements, disrupt economic activities, and aggravate health problems. Chester writes that pyroclastic flows and lava can lead to .. .land sterilization, permanent land loss and major social dislocation" (Chester 1993:194). Using another viewpoint, volcanic hazards can also have more positive effects. Humans tend to settle near volcanoes because of the fertile soil, existing reservoirs to store water, sources of geothermal heat, and for the scenery the area can provide. The scenic surroundings often prompt the development of tourism industries near volcanoes (Chester 1993 : 186; Smith 1996: 159). Those people who do decide to live in high-risk areas, such as volcanic areas, believe that the benefits outweigh the risks, with their perception of risk often being much different from scientific analyses (O'Riordan 1986:278). In theory, many of the effects of volcanic disasters can be avoided. Human death could be averted by prediction and evacuation. Destruction of human settlements and the 48


disruption of economic systems could be avoided by simply not living near a volcano. Wijkman and Timberlake (1984:100) write, "One ofthe simplest ways to avoid death by eruption is to avoid proximity to volcanoes." However, in practice these solutions are not always feasible. Human behavior cannot always be predicted and controlled. In the following section, I explore some of the mitigation and response activities regarding volcanic disasters Mitigation and Preparedness Although volcanoes present many potential hazards, people still choose to settle near volcanoes for the benefits that they provide, such as rich soil that is good for farming. Volcanoes can remain inactive for many years, generally creating a sense of passivity for the people living near them However, any volcano that has a history of eruption within the last 25,000 years should be considered to have the potential to be active again (Smith 1996: 155). The potential volcanic hazard is always present for those who live near volcanoes, but it is the human interaction with that active hazard that can create a disaster Volcanoes are sometimes viewed as a type of equal opportunity hazard As Blaikie et al. write, "Volcanic eruptions endanger any person living within the high-risk zone, whether rich or poor, landowner or landless farm labourer, man or woman, old or young, member of ethnic minority or majority" (1994: 184). Chester also states that, initially, volcanic events have the same effect on people who are either rich or poor (1993 : 244) However, this understanding of how volcanic hazards affect humans is not completely accurate. It does not take into consideration such factors as the length of time 49


that a volcano remains active and the vulnerability factors that can influence people's ability to successfully cope with the hazard The impact of disasters can potentially be reduced through mitigation efforts. Mitigation can be defined as "Mechanisms that reduce the likely impact of a disaster event. .. (Guarnizo 1992 : 96). These mechanisms can include prediction, identification of risk zones, warning systems, and evacuation plans. Prediction, writes Chester, .. .is the key which enables the advantages of volcanoes to be maximized and the dangers minimi z ed" (1993 : 186). However, prediction itself cannot always minimize volcanic dangers According to Newhall and Punongbayan "In principle, volcanic risks can be substantially mitigated In practice, mitigation of volcanic risks is neither easy nor guaranteed Sometimes disaster strikes before any warnings are issued. At other times, forecasts are correct but warnings are ineffective, so disaster takes its toll" (1996 : 807) If volcanic hazard mitigation efforts are to be successful people will need to leave the high risk area before major volcanic activity occurs Voight writes that for people to be convinced that they need to leave, they will have to believe that they are personally at risk and understand what needs to be done to avoid tha t risk (1996 : 747). With volcanoes that have had infrequent eruptive periods, the nearby residents are often unaware of the seriousness of the hazard (Pete r son 1996 : 701 ) Moreover with volcanic hazards prediction of explosive activity can be inexact and the period of time that the volcano will be active and pose a substantial danger can vary greatly. As Smith points out, "In some cases volcanic activity may start to increase months before a violent eruption ; in other events only a few hours may be available" (1996 : 173) Furthermore volcanic unrest can sometimes end without an eruption causing d i sillusionment with and distrust 50


of scientific efforts of prediction (Peterson 1996 : 706) All of these elements lead to greater difficulty in convincing people that a nearby volcano can truly pose a danger to them The ability to successfully mitigate a disaster and prepare a community to manage the aftermath of a disaster frequently rests on the level of vulnerability that exists People are not often simply affected by one type of vulnerability, but a combination of factors that influence one another Economic vulnerability can influence what types of mitigation and preparedness activities are feasible, on the individual, local, and national levels, which, in turn, can create social protection vulnerability For volcanic hazards in developing areas of the world, where most of the high-risk volcanoes are located, local and national agencies do not necessarily have the resources to adequately monitor volcanoes and develop mitigation and preparedness plans. Therefore assistance must be sought from developed nations, which often operate within bureaucracies with very different agendas than the countries seeking help (Voight 1996) Countries with economic instability cannot always take control of the situation themselves but must work with others whose needs might override their own Educational vulnerability can also be greatly influenced by economic and self protection vulnerability A country without financial resources might not be able to adequately invest in programs that will educate and inform citizens of the risks ofliving near a volcano and possible future evacuation plans. One of the most extreme examples of the failure to mitigate and prepare for a volcanic disaster is the Nevado del Ruiz disaster that took place on November 13, 1985 Lahars flowed from this volcano annihilating the town of Armero, Colombia, killing 23,000 people and wounding several 51


thousand more (Parker 1989 :161 ) Nevado del Ruiz had a history of eruption, with lahars previously destroying the town of Armero in 1845 (Voight 1996; Parker 1989). Those who have studied this disaster concur that many of these lives could have been saved had more effective hazard management practices been employed (Voight 1996:722) This disaster was the result of" ... cumulative human error -by misjudgment, indecision and bureaucratic shortsightedness" (Voight 1996 : 764). The failure to adequately prepare the area for the eruption ofNevado del Ruiz includes lack of attention to the most vulnerable communities, lack of promptness to create a hazard map, and the lack of a strong system of communication to be used to pass along vital information (Voight 1996:764). Another fatal error was that no contingency plan had been developed to evacuate Armero (Parker 1989 : 160). This evacuation plan had been delayed because governmental officials were not willing to contend with the negative consequences, economically and politically, of an early evacuation or a false alarm (Voight 1996 : 764). EFFECTS OF EVACUATION Efforts to ensure the safety of people living in high-risk areas might lead to an evacuation of communities and villages These evacuations can be either temporary or permanent. When people are evacuated because of a natural hazard they can be called Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), or environmental refugees. An IDP is someone who is forced to leave his or her home, but does not cross the border into another country (United Nations 2000). Environmental refugees are defined as ... those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life" (El-Hinnawi 1985:4) 52


Disasters are events that can put people into the position of being environmental refugees {Meyers 1995 : 18) When an evacuation is ordered, people are forced to leave their homes and communities. People who are evacuated sometimes go to government-run shelters, some go to live with families or friends, some rent places to live, and some are forced to live on the street. Each person's economic resources and social networks, in addition to available governmental resources, help to determine in what type of living situation they are during the evacuation An attempt to permanently evacuate an area can lead to the resettlement of communities. The success or failure of resettlement can depend on a number of different factors that strongly relate to economic and social factors (Cemea 1997) The evacuation of communities can have impacts on economic and social structures. Displacement leads to loss of land loss of employment, and loss of housing Without land many people's livelihoods are taken away. When they arrive in the towns and cities where the communities are evacuated, there might not be many available jobs. Furthermore it is often difficult to create new jobs in these areas The loss ofhousing can also cause major economic burdens, and in some cases, leads to homelessness (Cemea 1997:1572-15 7 3). Displacement also di s rupts the social structures of communities by tearing apart social organization and interpersonal ties Moreover families can be separated from each other (Cemea 1997 : 1575) The disruption of social structures can make it even more difficult to contend with the economic effects. Another effect of displacement is on people's health because of their increased e xpo s ure to di s ease and diminished access to healthcare (Banatvala and Zwi 2000) The health issues that tend to affect displaced people the most are diarrh eal diseases measles 53


acute respiratory infections, and malaria (Paquet and Banquet 1998; Peterson, Roberts, .Toole, and Peterson 1998; Toole 1995; Toole and Waldman 1997; Toole and Waldman 1993; Toole and Waldman 1990) In shelters these factors are intensified because of crowded living space, poor access to water and sanitation facilities, and increased stress (Bantavala and Zwi 2000) The following chapter is on the methodology of the research project. Within that chapter I discuss the various methods used to better understand the Mt. Tungurahua situation. 54


CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY A wide range of participants has been involved in this research project. To capture the diversity of people affected by and involved in the evacuation of the Mt. Tungurahua area the research team has used several methods of inquiry The primary method of data collection for this project has been the administration of two semi structured questionnaires. To complement the data gathered through these questionnaires the research team also conducted focus groups and personal interviews The team has also corresponded with research participants, analyzed documents, and r e viewed news reports. This chapter addres s es the time frame of the research project, the sampling strategy, and the methods that we employed I then discuss the methods of analysis that I am using for this thesis Finally, I address some of the ethical issues involved in this research TIME FRAME The research for this project lasted one year beginning in April 2000 and ending in April2001. During the course of the year, members of the team made four visits to Ecuador. In May 2000, the two principal investigators, Dr. Whiteford and Dr. Tobin, vi s ited Ecuador to survey the areas wh e r e we would be interviewing evacuees During this visit they also conducted person a l i nterview s with key local and national government 55


officials. The following month, June 2000 the entire team of researchers went to Ecuador to interview a sample of people who had been evacuated. We also included a control group of non-evacuees in our interviews. In December 2000, the two principal investigators returned to Ecuador once more During this visit they interviewed NGO officials, as well as additional government officials The entire team of researchers returned again to Ecuador in January 2001. Again we interviewed a sample of people who had been evacuated along with a sample of non-evacuees. During this research project there were many changes that affected the evacuees, as well as the entire population of Ecuador Examples these changes include the lowering of the alert level and the closing of government shelters. Changes that affected the entire nation included the removal of additional subsidies such as rice, water, and gasoline. Another important shift in the country was a change in the currency from Sucres to U.S. dollars, with inflation continuing to be a problem around the entire country. Due to the dynamic situation in Ecuador, our research strategies have had to develop to meet the changing situation. Therefore the research conducted in June 2000 and January 200 I includes somewhat different samples of individuals, but the s ame categories for selection as well as altered research questions. We made these changes to reflect the reality of the situation for those people most affected by Mt. Tungurahua. Since I am only be analyzing data from the June 2000 interviews I am not discussing the changes made to the January 2001 sampling and qu est ionnaire. SAMPLE As part ofthis research project, our sample of people interviewed includes evacuees, a control group of people who were never evac uated gove rnment officials, and 56


NGO officials. We interviewed the evacuees and the control group using a s tructured questionnaire. Focus groups were also conducted with these same gro up s One hundred and thirty-one people were involv ed in th e structured interviews Twenty-two adult women were involved in the focus groups. Open-ended interviews were used with gove rnment and NGO officials Approximately 15 government and NGO officials were int e rviewed. The particular research methods used with each sampl e is addressed in the next sec tion on research method s. Evacuees The people who were evacuated from the Mt. Tungurahua area in October 19 99 were the major source of data for this project. When we developed our sample, we were more interested in people's experiences durin g the evacuation rather than the particular area from which they came Therefore, our sample of evacuees included three groups. These groups were people who went to live in s helters, people who were resettled, and people who decided to r e turn early t o Bafios Table 1: Number of Interview Participants (Evacuees 2000) GROUPS #OF INTERVIE WS JUNE 2000 Shelters 42 Resettled 22 Early Returnees 34 TOTAL 98 T h e first group includ e d those people who went to li ve a t government-run shelters. During the June 2000 v i sit we were ab l e to interview people li ving at a shelter in t h e tow n of Ambato as we ll as peop l e in a smaller s h elter near Quimiag We co nducted the int erv i ews in the s h e lt e r s th e mselves The samp l e of people wi thin t h is 57


group was one of convenience, i.e., those people who were available to be interviewed Due to the interviewees' work schedules and the research team's limited time, this was an appropriate method of sampling We did require that only one member of each household could be interviewed The local leaders from the shelter were instrumental in organizing people to be interviewed. The second group included people who had resettled to a new community. This group of people came from the communities on the southern flanks ofMt. Tungurahua and moved to the town of Quimiag In Quimiag, the resettled group lived in rented and borrowed homes. They also formed a cooperative in agricultural endeavors This group worked on land donated by individuals, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Agriculture Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture has worked with the cooperative to grow tomatoes in greenhouses and to raise chickens When we interviewed members of the resettlement group in Quimiag, the majority took place in the Ministry of Agriculture's building However, we also interviewed some people in the fields where they were working. Again, because of interviewees work schedules, we used a sample of convenience to administer the structured interviews. Our requirements were that the individuals being interviewed be part of the resettled group and that each household be represented only once. Local cooperative leaders and a provincial Ministry of Health official were integral in helping to organize people to be interviewed. The third group of people in our sample included those who returned, out oftheir own volition, to their homes in or near the town ofBafios This group has had varied evacuation experiences previous to returning to their homes Some people lived in the 58


homes of family or friends, some rented rooms, and some lived in shelters. However, all decided to return early rather than remain outside their community During the June 2000 interviews, the people participating were living in a community to which not all residents had returned We conducted the interviews at the hospital in Banos. All the interviews that we did with this group came from a sample of convenience, with the nurses at the hospital assisting in gathering participants. Control Group To better understand the experiences and circumstances of the people who had evacuated we also included a control group with which we could compare responses. This group included local residents from the town of Quimiag (Table 2) Table 2: Number of Interview Participants (Control Group-June 2000) GROUPS #OF INTERVIEWS JUNE 2000 Control Group 33 As mentioned earlier, the entire country has undergone many changes and difficulties during the year of our research The inclusion of a control group allows us to better comprehend what problems might be specific to the evacuation experience and what problems might be affecting the larger population of Ecuador. The town of Quimiag was chosen for two main reasons The first reason was that it is near Mt. Tungurahua yet in a fairly safe zone. The second reason is that it is a small farming community that is similar to many of the communities in the evacuation area likely facing many of the same external pressures. The third reason was to better understand the local townspeople's feelings towards the resettled group of evacuees who live and work among them The interviews conducted in June 2000 took place in a building owned by 59


the Ministry of Agriculture. A nurse from the Chimborazo Province Ministry of Health assisted in getting local volunteers. Again, it was a sample of convenience Government Officials To develop a more complete understanding of the evacuation and its impacts, we interviewed government officials at the national provincial, and local levels. The two principal investigators conducted these interviews The agencies with whom the interviews were conducted include: Civil Defense, Ecuadorian National Ministry of Public Health Chimborazo Province Ministry of Public Health, Tungurahua Province Ministry of Public Health, and the Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic NGO Officials Along with government officials, the two lead investigators conducted interviews with leading NGOs in Ecuador that have been involved in the Mt. Tungurahua evacuation Officials from the following NGOs were interviewed: Red Cross of Ecuador Catholic Relief Services, and the PanAmerican Health Organization. RESEARCH METHODS The methods used during this research project were chosen to gather data from the particular groups in our sample within our limited timeframe Although a variety of methods were employed in this research, all relied on the anthropological principle of the ernie perspective To understand the experiences of evacuees and the decision-makers involved in the evacuation, we interviewed them directly to understand their perspectives We chose to use a structured questionnaire with the evacuees and the control group to collect corresponding data across the groups We also included focus groups to provide mor e d e pth to the data collected in the structured interviews. Personal interviews were 60


conducted with government and NGO officials. We also interacted with these officials through direct correspondence. Finally, the research team reviewed documents and newspaper reports as part of the project. Questionnaire The entire research team visited Ecuador on two separate occasions to gather data Our first visit was in June 2000, and our second visit in January 2001. The main focus of both visits was to administer the questionnaire to people who had been evacuated and to a control group of people who had not been evacuated. The four research assistants conducted the structured personal interviews with a total of 131 participants The questionnaire is a structured interview that can also be called an ethnographic survey These ... refer to closed-ended instruments and observation schedules designed to collect quantitative ethnographic data ... (Bernard 1994:237). They should develop from unstructured and semi-structured interviews, be used with other data to allow for triangulation of results, and generate results that lead to further qualitative data (Schensul, Schensul, and LeCompte 1999:167-168). The questionnaire that we developed for the June 2000 visit (see Appendix A) included a combination of closed-ended questions, Likert-type scales and open-ended questions The questions addressed perceptions of risk, evacuation experience, family health, gender roles, social networks, losses, and perceptions of assistance. The format of the particular questions depended on the subject matter that we were seeking For example questions about people's evacuation experience and perceptions of assistance were open-ended to capture each individual s personal story. Yet when trying to measure 61


perception of risk, we developed a Likert-type scale to be able to measure and compare responses Focus Groups Focus groups were conducted along with the structured questionnaires. A focus group usually includes 6 to 12 people and is moderated, typically by a researcher, to discuss a particular topic. Focus groups allow for the researcher to find out how people feel about certain issues and why they feel that way (Bernard 1994:224-226). Dr. Linda M. Whiteford facilitated the focus groups with a total of22 participants These focus groups took place at the same time that the four research assistants administered the questionnaire Therefore, the focus groups have a sample that is similar to that of the structured interviews However, we only allowed women to participate in the focus groups. This decision was made so that we could develop a better understanding, in particular, of women's experiences. An attempt was made to include only women who had not participated in the questionnaire process, but due to matters of group size and group dynamics, many of the women who participated in the focus groups also were involved in the questionnaire interview. We believe that this does not pose a conflict for the validity our data as the format of the focus groups allowed women to discuss their experiences and opinions more freely, providing supplementary data to the structured interview. Additionally, particular questions were addressed in the focus groups, such as family health and evacuation experience to allow for more in-depth information to arise 62


Open-Ended Interviews The two principal investigators conducted open-ended interviews with about 15 government and NGO officials. Open-ended interviews, also called unstructured or semi structured interviews, are defined by Bernard as ... based on a clear plan that you keep constantly in mind, but are also characterized by a minimum of control over the informant's responses" (1994:209). This method can be further defined as "An open ended question [that] leaves the responses open to the discretion of the interviewee and is not bounded by alternatives provided by the interviewer or constraints on the length of response" (Schensul, Schensul, and LeCompte 1999:121). The interview can also be semi-structured, which ... combine the flexibility of the unstructured, open-ended interview with the directionality and agenda of the survey instrument to produce focused, qualitative, textual data at the factor level" (Schensul, Schensul, and LeCompte 1999:149). These interviews included open-ended questions with no set interview protocol. Instead, specific questions were developed for officials within certain capacities. For example, questions about health issues facing the evacuees were addressed to officials with the Ministry of Public Health, and questions about the activity level of the volcano were addressed to officials from the Geophysical Institute. These interviews served primarily as a means of obtaining the most current and relevant information about the evacuation and activity of Mt. Tungurahua Direct Corresp01rdence Along with personal interviews, members of the research team corresponded with government and NGO officials through e-mail and telephone communication. Since the 63


research team was not in based in Ecuador, but made trips there, it was necessary to remain in contact with officials. Similar to the personal interviews, the aim of this correspondence was to collect information about the current situation for the people affected by the evacuation. There was no set protocol about contacting these officials, nor for the questions asked of them. If certain information was needed, then we contacted the people who might be able to provide it. Document Review During the personal interviews with government and NGO officials, documents relevant to the situation were obtained. The types of documents that we collected included evacuation plans, health plans, reports, newsletters, and pamphlets. These have been reviewed and serve as a source of official information about the evacuation and Mt. Tungurahua's activity Newspaper Reports To remain current with the situation, newspaper reports have also been followed. These reports were also followed to gain a different perspective of the situation as presented locally, nationally, and internationally. The newspapers reviewed were typically Ecuadorian, such as La Hora, El Universo, La Prensa, and La Hora de Ambato However, when news relevant to the situation ofMt. Tungurahua and the evacuation appeared in the internati

assistance that was given to the evacuees. I am using data collected during the June 2000 structured interviews and focus groups I have decided to include only data from the first series of interviews because it was during this period many people were still evacuated Therefore, these responses are better indicators for the evacuation's short-term effects. In contrast, the data collected in January 2001 are more reflective of the effects of the return experience rather than the evacuation experience. My analysis includes a comparison of results from evacuees and results from the control group. I have reorganized the sample of evacuees into two groups and have maintained the control group. This has been done to reflect peoples' evacuation status at the time of the interviews Furthermore, the responses given by the people in shelters and the resettled communities were often very similar. The three groups that I look at are as follows: 1) People who were still evacuated at the time of the interview (Evacuated) 2) People who were evacuated, yet had returned to the home area at the time of the interview (Returned) 3) People who were never evacuated (Never Evacuated) The first group of people I am calling the evacuated. Included in this group are those who were still evacuated at the time of the interviews This group is composed of people from the shelters and the resettlement, which makes up 64 people The second group of people I am calling the returned. These are the people, who at the time of the interviews, were the early returnees to Baiios and its surrounding areas. There are 34 people in this group. The third group is the never evacuated. This group includes 33 Quimiag locals 65


Research Questions & Hypotheses The two research questions and subsequent hypotheses guiding my analysis are as follows: 1.) What are the self-reported short-term effects of a government mandated evacuation on a population at risk of being affected by a volcanic hazard? Risk: It is hypothesized that risk perception differs by evacuation status. The situation of each group will influence how people perceive the risk that the volcano poses. 1.1) Evacuation status affects perception of risk Finances: It is hypothesized that the evacuated and returned groups reported greater financial/ass since the evacuation than the never evacuated group. 1.2) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of agricultural problems (including : loss of crops, loss of livestock, inability to plant) 1.3) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of economic problems (including : loss of bank funds, lack of money, devaluation) Health: It is hypothesized that the evacuated and returned groups reported more health problems since the evacuation than the never evacuated group. 1.4) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of respiratory problems 1.5) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of digestive problems 2.) What are the perceptions of the assistance that has been given to people affected by the volcano? Government: It is hypothesized that perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affect perceptions of governmental assistance. 2.1) Evacuation status affects perception of government assistance 66


NGOs: It is hypothesized that perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affect perceptions of NGO assistance. 2.2) Evacuation status affects perception ofNGO assistance The June 2000 responses were coded and entered into a database using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The answers to open-ended questions were coded and entered. Many of these answers were regrouped and collapsed into themes that correspond to a pattern. For example, self-reported agricultural problems include data from individual questions about loss of crops, loss of livestock, and inability to plant. To address the first research question about the short-term effects of the evacuation, I looked at three specific issues These include perception or risk, perception of financial stability, and perception ofhealth status. The specific questions taken from the June 2000 questionnaire (See Appendix A) that I analyzed are as follows : Risk: 1) Are you worried about the volcano? Finances: Health: 47) Has your family faced a crisis in the past 6-8 months, such as loss of crops? Loss of livestock? Inability to plant? 47) Has your family faced a crisis in the past 6-8 months, such as loss of bank funds? Devaluation? Lack of money? 29/30) In last six months have you had respiratory problems? 29 / 30) In the last six months have you had diarrhea problems? Government Assistance: 50) What has the government done to help people affected by the volcano? 67


NGO Assistance: 51) What have NGOs done to help people affected by the volcano? I used a chi-square test of independence to analyze the responses to the questions listed above. This particular type of statistical analysis tests the variance of responses among the three groups. The probability value of< 0.05 was used to determine if the differences in responses among the groups are statistically significant. I also used crosstabulations to better explain the responses that were provided In the Analysis chapter I address each particular test and explain what factors might have led to these responses. The qualitative data collected through focus groups and open-ended interviews are utilized to help analyze the quantitative results Finally, I compare the results and explanations among the three groups to answer the two research questions. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS When involved in research, the ethical considerations of the project should always be considered. This should be done, foremost to protect the people with whom we work because it is the intent to cause no harm to the people that are involved. Therefore, it is necessary to consider as many issues as possible that might pose problems for those involved For this project, some of the ethical issues that should be considered include responsibility to research participants and responsibility to disseminate research results. As part of an anthropologist's duty to research participants is the responsibility to protect informants from any negative recourses The Code of Eth i cs of th e Ame r ic an Anthr o p o logical Association (1998) states that anthropologists have a "Responsibility to people and animals with whom a nthropolo g ical res earchers work and whose lives and 68


cultures they study." The Society for Applied Anthropology's Ethical and Professional Responsibilities statement (2001) includes a commitment to protect research participants It states: "To the communities ultimately affected by our activities we owe respect for their dignity, integrity, and worth." The safety of all the human participants is always a one of the most important considerations. In this project we have interviewed people about personal matters such as family, health, and opinions about the government mandated evacuation of their communities These types of questions, especially those about people's opinions, might have social consequences for the participants. To protect them, all information and names were kept confidential. The data have been aggregated, leaving no particular person to be identified. This is particularly important for individuals who have made strong commentary about the government's actions. We have also ensured that all participants were compensated in some way for the time they have spent with us. This has usually been through gifts of food or needed household items. A second consideration with this project is the responsibility to share results from the research project. The SfAA (2001) writes that ... we should not impede the flow of information about research outcomes and professional practice techniques." The research team is addressing this issue through public presentation of our findings at conferences and workshops and the publication of results What is more important, though, is that we are sharing our results with the agencies that have assisted us in this project. Our results might help guide them in working with the problems caused by disasters The two principal investigators will continue working on further research with officials from the 69


Geophysical Institute and the National Ministry of Health Therefore, the results will flow back to officials who are working with the se issues. In the following chapter, I present the results of the tests that were run to accept or not accept the hypotheses se t forth in this chapter. The results of the chi-square tests of independence are presented and descriptive statistics are discussed. 70


CHAPTER FIVE RESULTS To answer the two research questions stated in the Methodology section, I have used the chi-square test of independence to test the significance of the differences in the responses given by the three groups. In this chapter, I present the results for the chi square tests of independence that I have run. Following each test, I also provide a brief analysis of what the results might mean In the following chapter I go into further detail about the meaning of these results PERCEPTIONS OF EFFECTS The first question to be addressed in this chapter is: 1.) What are the short-term effects of a government mandated evacuation on a population at risk of being affected by a volcanic hazard? To answer this research question, I analyze the results regarding perception of risk, self-reported financial problems, and self-reported health symptoms Risk Perception of risk was chosen as one ofthe variables to be analyzed because it is often a determinant in peoples' decision to either remain near a volcano or to evacuate the are a. The hypothesis for this test is: It is hypothesized that risk perception differs by e vacuation status. The situation of each group will influence how people p e rc e iv e the risk that the volcano poses Th e specific test is : 1.1) Evacuation status affect s perception of r i sk. The results ofthe chi-square test of independence are as follows in Table 3 : 71


Worried abou t the vo l cano? Tota l Table 3: Risk-Chi-Square Results Worried about t h e volcano? Evacuated Status C ro sstab ul ation Evacuated Status Returned (from Never Evacuated Evacuation) Evacuated Not Worried Count 1 7 % within Evacuated Status 50.0% A litt le to somewhat Coun t 23 12 % w ithin Evacuated Status 35.9% 35.3% Very to extreme ly Count 41 5 % within Evacuated Status 64.1% 14.7% Count 64 3 4 % within Evacuated 1 00.0% Stat u s 100.0% Chi-Square Tests Asymp. Sig. Value df (2-sided) Pear so n Chi Sq uar e 60.264a 4 .000 Likelihood Ratio 60.594 4 .000 Lin ear-by-Linear 2.549 I 110 A ssoc iation N of Valid Cases 1 3 1 a. 2 cells (22.2%) hav e expected co unt less than 5. The m inimu m expected co unt is 4.28. 14 42.4% 19 57.6% 33 100.0 % Total 17 1 3.0% 49 37.4% 65 49 .6% 1 3 1 100 .0% The results for thi s chi-square test are 0.00, which fall within the acceptance level of0.05. Therefore, the decision for this te s t is that the two variab les are not independent from one another. It can be concluded from this chi-square test that evacuation status and level of worry do have a significant association between them. The differences between the responses give n by the three groups are significant. The only group that had members reportin g that they were not worried about the vo l cano were those who had return ed ear l y from th e evacuatio n Fifty percent of respondents from that group indicated that they had no worries about Mt. Tungurahua. 72


Within all three groups there was a similar percentage of people who reported that they were a little to somewhat worried about the volcano. Those who had never been evacuated had the highest percentage of respondents, 42.4% indicate that they were somewhat to a little worried. Both of the evacuated groups had 35%-36% percent of their respondents indicate that they were a little to somewhat worried about Mt. Tungurahua. There are significant differences regarding the responses that people were very to extremely worried. The evacuated group had the highest percentage of respondents 64 1 % indicating the higher level of worry Following this group is the never evacuated group with 57 6% of respondents specifying a high level of worry The returned group had only 14.7% responding that they were very to extremely worried about the volcano Finances Financial issues were chosen as another way to test for the short-term effects of the evacuation. When the evacuation occurred in October 1999, people were forced to leave their livelihoods behind. This included not only jobs, but land, crops, and animals This sudden change in economic opportunities is assumed to affect the financial stability of the evacuees. Therefore, I have chosen to look at self-reported agricultural and financial losses to see if this, indeed was an effect of the evacuation. The hypothesis is : It is hypothesized that the evacuated and returned groups reported greater financial/ass since the evacuation than the never e va c uated group. The first test is a chi-square test of independence. The test is: 1 2) Evacuation status affects self-reported experi e nc e s of agri c ultural probl e ms (including : loss of crop s loss of livestock inability to plant). The results are as follows in Table 4 : 73


Agricultural Yes Problems No Total Table 4: Agricultural Loss Chi-Square Results Agricultural Problems Evacuated St a tus Crosstabulation Evacuated Status Returned (from Never Evacuat e d Evacuation) Evacuated Count 44 17 6 %within Evacuated Status 68.8% 50.0% 18.2% Count 20 17 27 % within Evacuated Status 31.3% 50. 0% 81.8% Count 64 34 33 % within Evacuated Status 100 0% 100 0% 100.0% Chi-Square Tests Asymp. Sig. Value df (2-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 22.3073 2 .000 Likelihood Ratio 23.610 2 .000 Linear-by-Linear 21.722 I .000 Association N of Valid Cases 131 a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5 The minimum expected count is 16.12. Total 67 51.1% 64 48.9% 131 100 .0% The significance level of this chi-square test is 0 00, which is within the acceptance level of0.05. It can be concluded that evacuation status and self-reported experiences of agricultural loss are not independent from one another. The differences in responses for the three groups are statistically significant. Both the evacuated and returned groups had the highest percentage of respondents report that they had experienced agricultural problems. Almost 69% of the group that was still evacuated during the time of the interviews reported agricultural loss. Fifty percent of those people who had returned from evacuation reported agricultural loss. In comparison, only 18.2% of the group that had never been evacuated reported agricultural 74


loss The negati ve effects of agric ul tural loss appear to be greater for those people who were evacuated than those who were not. The second test is for perceptions of financial loss caused by the evacuation is a chi square test of independence. The test is: 1.3) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of econo m ic prob l ems (including: loss of ba n k funds, lack of money, deva l uation). Following are the results in Table 5: Economic Yes Problems No Total Ta bl e 5: Econ om ic Pr o b l ems Chi-S qua re Re s u lt s Economic Problems Evacuated Status Crosstabu l ation Evacuated Status Returned (from Never Evacuated Evacuation) Eva cua ted Count 47 29 21 %within Evacuated Status 73.4% 85.3% 63.6% Co u nt 17 5 12 % within Evacuated 26 .6% Statu s 14.7% 36.4% Count 64 34 33 %within Evacuated 100 0 % 100 .0% 100.0% Status Chi-Square Te s ts Asymp Sig Value df (2-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 4 .llla 2 128 Likeli h ood Ratio 4 .26 5 2 .119 Linear-by-Linear .534 I .465 Association N of Valid Cases 131 a. 0 cells (.0%) hav e expected count Jess than 5. The minimum e x pected count is 8.56 Total 97 74.0% 34 26.0% 131 100 .0% The results of this chi-square test indicate a significance level of 0 128 which is above the accepte d significance l evel of0.05. Therefore the two variables are independent and a significant relationship does not exist between evacuated status and 75


self-reported economic problems The differences in the responses between the groups are not statistically significant. A closer examination of the results suggests that all three groups have met with economic problems The majority of respondents within each group indicated that they had experienced economic difficulties Those who returned from being evacuated had the highest percentage of respondents, 85.3% indicate economic problems followed by 73.4% of those who were still evacuated at the time of the interviews Sixty-four percent of the respondents within the never evacuated group reported economic problems Health Health is another indicator of the short-term effects of the evacuation. When an active volcanic hazard exists and an evacuation takes place, there are expected health problems A volcano that emits ash which Mt. Tungurahua does, often aggravates respiratory problems. Furthermore, evacuation can cause an increase in enteric diseases infectious disease because people ar e not living in their normal surroundings Furthermore people living in shelters oft e n have crowded l i v i ng spaces, as well as shared kitchens, sinks and food Therefore, it was expected that shelter residents might encounter enteric problems such as diarrhea The hypothesis is : It is hypothesized that the ev a cuat e d and returned groups rep o rt e d more health problems since the evacuation than th e n e v e r evacuated group The first te s t for the health e f fects of the evacuation is a chi-squ a re test of independence The test i s : 1.4 ) E vac u a t io n stat us affec ts s e lf-r e ported symptom s o f r e spir a tory pro bl e m s (Table 6 ) 76


Table 6: Symptoms of Respiratory Problems Chi-Square Results Int erviewee w i th Re s piratory or Cold Symptoms Eva c uated Status Crosstabu lation Intervi ew e e with Respiratory or Cold Symptoms T o tal Evacuated Stat u s R e turned ( from Never Evacuated Evacuation) Evacuated Y es Count 21 6 8 % within Evacuated Statu s 32 8% 17. 6 % 24 2% No Count 43 28 25 % within Evacuated 67 2 % 82 4 % Statu s 75 .8% Count 6 4 34 33 % within E vac uated Status 100.0% 100 0% 100.0% Chi-Square Te sts Asymp Sig. Value df (2-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 2.7463 2 .253 Likelihood Ratio 2.826 2 .24 3 Lin ea r-by-Linear 1.258 I .2 62 Assoc ia tion N of Valid Cases 131 a 0 cells (.0%) have expected count l ess than 5 The minimum expected count is 8.82. Total 35 26 7 % 96 73 3% 131 100 .0% The result of this chi-square test which is 0 53, is higher than the accepted level of significance Therefore the two variables are independent. It can be concluded that self-reported experiences of respiratory problems and evacuation status are independent from one another. There is not a significant difference between the responses coming from the three groups. Among all three groups, the majority of respondents did not indicate symptoms of respiratory problems. The highest percentage of those people who did report respiratory problems, 32.8 %, came from the evacuated group The second highest group with 77


reported respiratory problems 24.2%, was the never evac ua ted group. The returned group had the lowest percenta ge of reported respiratory problems at 17.6%. The secon d test to determine the health effec t s of the vo l cano is for self-reported symptoms of diarrhea. This test is: 1 5) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of di ges ti ve proble ms Tab l e 7 shows the results : Table 7: Symptoms of Digestive ProblemsChi-Square Results A Interviewee with symptoms of d ia rrhea To t al Interviewee with symptoms of diarrhea Evacuated Status Crosstabulation Evacuated Status Returned (from Never Evacua t ed Evacuation) Evacuated Yes Count 7 3 % within Evacuated 10.9% Status 8.8% No Count 57 31 33 % within Evacuated 89. 1% 9 1 .2% 100.0 % Status Co unt 64 34 33 % within Evacuat e d 100 0% 1 00 0 % 1 00 0% S t at u s C hiSq uar e Test s Asymp Sig. Value df ( 2s ided) Pear s on Chi-Square 3 7863 2 151 Lik e lih ood R a tio 6. 1 89 2 .045 Linear -by -Lin ear 3.370 I 066 A ssociatio n N of Valid C as es 1 3 1 a. 3 ce lls (50 .0% ) h ave e x pected c o unt l ess tha n 5 The minimum e x pected co unt i s 2.52. Total 1 0 7 .6% 121 92.4% 131 100 0% I am not able to accept the results of this chi-square te s t of independence because more than 25% of th e ce ll s have l ess than fiv e responses. Ther efo re, this test is not valid. The inability to accept these resu lt s can be explai n e d b y th e low number of reported symptoms of diarrh ea. No on e in th e nev er evacu a ted group reported s ymptom s of 78


diarrhea, and only 8 8% ofthe returned group and 10.9% ofthe e vac uated group indicated symptoms of diarrhea. Although this particular chi-square was not valid, it appears that within the never evacuated group, the lack of symptoms should be significant. Therefore, I decided to regroup the responses from the evacuated and returne d groups. The evacuated group now includes responses from those who were still evacuated at the time of the interviews, as well as those who had returned to their homes. This regrouping allows me to test for any differences between the responses given by any of the evacuated interview participants and the control group. Table 8 shows the results from another chi-square test of independence with the test that: 1.5) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of digestive problems Table 8: Symptoms of Digestive ProblemsChi-Square Results 8 In terv i ewee with symptoms of diarrhea Evacuated? Crosstabulation Evacuated? Yes No Total Interviewee with symptoms Yes Count 10 10 of diarrhea %within Evacuated? 10 .2% 7.6% No Count 88 33 121 %within Evacuated ? 89.8% 100 .0% 92.4% Tot a l Count 98 33 131 %with in Evacua ted ? 100 0% 100 .0% 100 0% 79


Chi-Square Tests Asymp. Sig Exact Sig Exac t Sig Valu e df (2-s ide d) ( 2-sided) (I sided) Pearson Ch i-Square 3.6 46 b I 056 Continuity Correctio., 2.342 I 126 Likelihood Ratio 6 078 I .014 Fisher's Exact Test .065 049 Linear by-L i near 3 618 I 057 A ss ociation N o f Valid Cases 1 3 1 a Computed only for a 2x2 t a bl e b I cells (25 0%) have expected count less than 5 The minimum expected count is 2.52. Using the results from Fisher's Exact Test the significance level for a one-tailed t es t is 0 049. This result falls below the accepted significance level of0.05 and it can be concluded that the two variables are not independent. There is an association between having been evacuated and symptoms of diarrhea, and the difference in these responses is significant. Although the majority of respondents did not indicate symptoms of diarrhea, the difference between th e number of evacuees who reported symptoms and non-evacuees who did not report symptoms is significant. Again, no person in the non-evacuee group reported symptoms of diarrhea. However 10% of people within the evac uated group reported symptoms of diarrhea. PERCEPTIONS OF ASSISTANCE The second question to be addressed in this chapter is: 2.) What are the perce ptions of the assistance that has been given to p e ople affe c ted b y th e volcano ? T his question is being asked as a follow-up the short-term effects of the evac uation The first qu estio n addresses the effects, while the second question addresses w h e th e r p eo pl e feel as if support was given to mitigat e the effects. This question i s s ub-di vided into two 80


sections, perceptions of assistance given by the government and perceptions of assistance given by NGOs. Government To better comprehend people s perceptions of government assistance given to the people affected by Mt. Tungurahua, I analyzed the responses according t o evacuation status. The hypothesis is: It is hypothesized that perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affect perceptions of governmental assistance. The test is: 2.1) Evacuation status affects perception of government assistance The results are shown in Table 9. Wh a t has th e government d one? Total Table 9: Government AssistanceChi-Square Results What has th e government d one? Evacuated Status C ross tabulation Evac uated Status R e turned (from Never Ev a c u a ted Evacuation) Evacuated Little to Nothing Count 30 30 16 % within Evacuated 4 9.2% 88.2% 51.6 % Status R esourc es Coun t 31 4 15 % w ithin Eva c u a t ed 50.8% 11.8% 48.4% Sta tu s Coun t 6 1 34 31 %within Evac uat ed 100 .0% 100.0 % 100 .0% Sta tu s C h i Sq u are Tests Asymp. Sig. Value df ( 2-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 1 5 .2143 2 .000 Likelihood Ratio 17.149 2 .000 Linear-by-Linear 819 I 365 Association N of Valid Cases 1 26 a 0 c e l ls ( 0 % ) h ave expected co unt l ess than 5. The mini mum e xpec t ed c ount i s 1 2 30 81 T o tal 76 60. 3 % 50 3 9 .7% 1 2 6 I 00.00/o


The result of this chi-square test is a significance level of 0.00, which is below the accepted significance level of0.05. Therefore, it can be determined that evacuation status and perceptions of government assistance are not independent from one another. The differences in responses given by the three groups are significant. The most noticeable differences in the responses are those given by the returned group. The returned group appears to have the most negative perceptions of government assistance Around 88% of the returned group responded that the government had provided no to little assistance to people affected by Mt. Tungurahua This is compared to around 50% of both the evacuated and never evacuated groups. NGOs Assistance to people affected by Mt. Tungurahua has also been given by non governmental organizations (NGOs). Therefore, the same question about perceptions of assistance was asked about NGO assistance The hypothesis is: It is hypothesi zed that perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affec t perceptions ofNGO assistance. The test is : 2.2) Evacuation status affects perception of NGO assistance The results are as shown in Table 10 The result ofthis test is a significance level ofO .OOl, which is below the accepted level of0.05. Therefore, I can conclude evacuation status and perceptions ofNGO assistance are not independent. There is a significant association between both variables and the differences between the responses given by members of the three groups are significant. 82


What have NGOs done? Total Table 10: NGO Assistance-Chi-Square Results What ha ve NGO s done? Evacuated Status Crosstabulation Evacua t ed Status Returned (from Never Evacuated Evacuation) Evacuated Little to Noth ing Count II 16 % within Evacuated Status 17.7% 48 .5% Resources Count 51 17 % within Evacuated S tatu s 82.3% 51.5% Count 62 33 %within Evacuated 100 .0% Status 100 0 % Chi-Square Tests Asymp. Sig. Va lu e df (2-sided) Pearson Chi-Square 14.132a 2 .00 1 Likelihood Ratio 13.571 2 .001 Linear-by-Linear .121 I .728 Association N of Valid Cases 116 a. 0 cells ( 0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum e x pected count is 5.25. 2 9.5% 19 90.5% 21 100 .0% Total 29 25.0 % 87 75.0% 116 100 .0% Again, the returned evacuees had the highest percentage of negative responses towards the assistance that was given. Within the group of returned evacuees, 48.5% responded that NGOs had provided little to nothing The evacuated group had 17.7% of its respondents indicate that NGOs had provided little to no assistance Ten percent of the group that was never evacuated responded that NGOs had provided little to nothing. The group that was never evacuated had the highest percentage, 90.5%, of responses that NGOs had provided resources This was followed by the evacuated group at 85.3% and then returned group at 51.5%. In the next chapter these results are discussed. I include the tests that were not significant, as well as the ones that were. 83


CHAPTER SIX ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION To better understand the results of this research, in this chapter I provide analyses ofboth significant and non-significant results. As part of this analysis, I refer to qualitative information collected during research This includes focus group data, additional structured interview data, and information received from personal interviews. When appropriate, I also refer to the literature that was presented earlier in Chapter Three. In this chapter, I follow the same sequence of topics as presented in the Results section. I start with the perceptions of short-term effects and end with the perceptions of assistance Following my analyses for the tests, I discuss what the overall meaning of this data might be. I also explain how through human error this evacuation created a disaster for those involved PERCEPTIONS OF EFFECTS In the previous chapter I presented the results of the tests pertaining to the research question: 1.) What are the short-term effects of a government mandated evacuation on a population at risk of being affected by a volcanic hazard? These tests showed that evacuation status had a relationship with perceptions of risk, reported agricultural problems and reported digestive problems The differences in responses given by the three groups are significant. Evacuation status did not have a relationship with economic problems nor respiratory problems. Although there might have been 84


differences in responses among the three groups, these differences are not statistically significant. Risk The results of a chi -square test of independence allowed me to accept the hypothesis that: Risk perception differs by evacuation status. The situation of each group will influence how people perceive the risk that th e volcano poses. There was a significant relationship between interview participants' self-reported level of worry about the volcano and evacuation status. As shown in these responses, the only people who indicated that they were not worried about the volcano were part of the returned group (Figure 4). Figure 4: Bar Graph of Risk Responses by Evacuation Status 60 50 40 30 20 Not Worried A littl e to so m ewhat Worried about the volcano? 85 Very to extre m e l y Evacuated Status !iiBRetumed (from Evacu ation)


Although one might think that those people who had returned early to live in Bafios, one of the areas most at risk if a serious volcanic eruption were to occur would be most worried about Mt. Tungurahua, this was not the case. There are three factors that need to be considered in understanding this result. First, the context of the situation must be understood. Those people who returned to Banos before June 2000 actually fought for their return and were the first to repopulate the area after the evacuation After struggling so hard to be able to return to their homes, it is likely that they made the decision that the volcano was the least of their worries It is doubtful that the early returnees would admit worry about the volcano. If they did so, this might add credence to the government's decision to evacuate the area During the focus group that was conducted with early returnees, people expressed their concerns that the government had falsely fiightened them and exaggerated the danger level of Mt. Tungurahua to persuade them to leave Furthermore, it is common that people do not want to abandon their homes and communities and will make efforts to return. Newhall and Punongbayan (1996:830) discuss peoples' desire to return home. They write, "Political pressures are strong Few will admit that their land or town cannot be saved. Most have been born and raised in their present towns and don't want to leave, so they exert political pressure for whatever immediate fix can be offered, almost regardless of its objectively assessed chances for survival." The second factor that could influence the high percentage of returnees stating that they had no worry about the volcano is the cultural interpretation of risk The way that people lead their lives, and the priorities that they make, can influence the decision to remain in home ar e as regardless of risk As quoted earlier in the Literature Review 86


chapter, Oliver-Smith and Hoffman write that "The perception of risk is linked to the values and prioritizing of values that guide a group s behavior and affect their judgements. Food, money, social position and preferred lifestyle may outweigh jeopardy" (1999 : 9). For people who experienced evacuation, the ability to be in their own homes could outweigh a possible risk. The third factor that could explain this result is discussed in the literature. Regarding risk acceptance, O'Riordan writes that people who voluntarily expose themselves to a danger might be willing to accept a higher level of risk than those who have had it forced upon them (1986 : 299) When people decided to return to Banos, they were assuming the risk for themselves In fact, those who decided to return in January 2000 were forced to sign a release form that absolved the government of any liability in case of any future eruptions ofMt. Tungurahua (Mothes 2000) Again, it is possible that people perceived the benefits of being able to live in their own homes, protecting their materials and livestock and working the land as outweighing the risks of living near the volcano What is noteworthy is that both the evacuees and the never evacuated groups had similar levels of worry with the majority of respondents within each group indicating that they were very worried to extremely worried about Mt. Tungurahua For those who were still evacuated during the time of the interviews, this does seem to make sense. At this time, all people were allowed to return to their homes. Considering the difficulties many people faced while being away from their homes this high level of worry could be an explanation for why they had not yet returned permanently. Indeed, if the evacuees had expressed no worry, then there was little reason for them to remain evacuated During the 87


focus group interviews, participants from both the resettled community and the shelter reported that they very much wanted to return to their homes, but were still afraid of the volcano Focus group participants from the shelter also said that they would like to move back to their homes near Mt. Tungurahua, but they feared for the negative effects this might have on their children. Some of the mothers mentioned that their children had been having nightmares about the volcano and they were concerned about the effects on the children that any future evacuation might cause. The locals in Quirniag who had never been evacuated also expressed high levels of worry about the volcano. Although Quimiag residents were not in direct danger of volcanic effects such as pyroclastic flows or lahars, they were near enough to the volcano to see it every day and receive ashfall. Likely it was this daily visual reminder of the volcano and its activity that led to people expressing higher levels of worry Furthermore, there was ashfall in the community that might have affected perceptions of risk. The focus group interview conducted with this group revealed people's concerns about the ashfall, specifically its effects on health, the envirorunent, laundry, as well as the long range effects. Finances The results ofthe short-term financial effects of evacuation were divided. Therefore, I am not able to completely accept the hypothesis that: The evacuated and returned groups reported greater financial loss since the evacuation than the never evacuated group The chi-square tests of independence indicated that there was a significant relationship between self-reported agricultural loss and evacuation status. The differences in the responses given by the three groups were significant. However, there 88


was not a significant relationship between self-reported economic loss and evacuation status. Self-reported economic loss occurred for the majority within all three groups. Looking first at the results of agricultural loss, I was able to accept the test that: 1.2) Evacuation status affects self-reported experiences of agricultural problems (including : loss of crops, loss of livestock inability to plant). Those people reporting the greatest agricultural losses were within the evacuated and returned group. The never evacuated group had a much lower percentage of people who reported that they were affected by agricultural loss. See bar graph in Figure 5 for the comparison of responses. Figure 5: Bar Graph of Agricultural Losses by Evacuation Status 80 60 40 20 Yes Agricultural Problems No Evacuated Status !Returned (from Evacu ati on) This result can be expected since when an evacuation occurs, the length oftime is often unknown and could possibly last for many months, meaning that the evacuation might interfere with crop seasons (Smith 1996 : 175) When the evacuation of the Mt. 89

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Tungurahua area occurred in October 1999, people were forced to leave their crops and animals behind. This evacuation occurred at the end of a growing season and many people were not able to harvest their crops, therefore, losing an investment. In contrast, those who were not evacuated did not have to leave their crops and animals They were able to use and sell the crops that they had spent months tending. The focus group interviews with the evacuated group, including the resettled and shelter groups, elicited serious concerns about agricultural losses leading to more economic problems. These concerns included the inability to plant crops and the loss of animals However, there were differences in the responses given by the evacuated and the returned groups The people who were still evacuated during the interviews in June 2000 had a higher percentage of respondents (69%) reporting agricultural loss than the early returnees (50%). This higher response rate to agricultural loss might be explained by the fact that many of the people who were still evacuated did not have access to their own land. Shelter residents had no land to work on and the resettled community was using borrowed land. Furthermore, when the evacuation occurred, many people had to either sell their animals or ended up losing them during the evacuation. Participants in the focus group for the resettled community expressed concerns about the ability to secure loans to be able to buy new animals when they returned home. The focus group with the returnees in Bafios also evoked concerns about similar agricultural losses. However, this group likely had a lower percentage of self-reported agricultural loss because they had already returned to their homes and land, therefore allowing them to plant new crops. These respondents, although facing economic 90

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difficulties, possibly had the opportunity to start making up for the time that they lost away from their land and work. This short-term effect of agricultural loss for those who were evacuated can be seen as an increase in livelihood vulnerability. This type of vulnerability includes decreased income opportunities, fewer work options, and a decrease in assets and savings (Cannon 1994:21). By removing people from their land and animals, they were often taken away from the means with which they could support themselves This increased vulflerability likely affects peoples' ability to adequately sustain themselves and their families. In turn, this vulnerability might influence future decisions to evacuate ifMt. Tungurahua again threatens a major eruption The results of the chi-square test of independence indicated that there was not a significant relationship between economic loss and evacuation status. Therefore, I did not accept the test that: 1.3) Evacuation status affects self-reported expe rienc es of economic problems (including : loss of bank funds, lack of money, devaluation) In each of the three groups, over half of the respondents indicated that they had encountered economic problems such as the loss of bank funds, currency devaluation, or lack of money. All respondents, whether having experienced evacuation or not, were struggling with economic problems. These results can be explained by the context of the economic situation in Ecuador, namely, severe economic problems and the removal of subsidies Statistics from 1999 indicated that 40% of the population was living in poverty, and 15% was living in extreme poverty (IMF 2000 : 9) This economic situation is discussed in more detail in the Background chapter, but provides an important backdrop by which to 91

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understand these responses Economic problems for many of the interview participants were sometimes independent of, and in some cases, previous to the volcanic activity. The economic problems reported by the majority of all interview participants were likely the result of nationwide economic difficulties For the evacuated and returned groups, the evacuation without doubt exacerbated their economic instability Although not statistically significant, these two groups did have a higher percentage of reported economic problems. Those who had been evacuated often faced agricultural loss, as well as the loss of work. Additional financial issues that were reported both in focus group interviews and in structured interviews include having to pay rent and utilities for two locations and the lack of work in the areas to which they had been evacuated The economic impact of the evacuation was likely not felt only by evacuees, but also businesses and governments Newhall and Punongbayan discuss the economic issues that can be caused by evacuation. "Yes, the people were safe, but the evacuations themselves carried a substantial cost that was yet to be justified All evacuations are expensive for government and business ... (1996:826) It is sometimes these costs that persuade governments to hold off on an evacuation Health Another possible effect of a short-term evacuation is on people's health. The results of chi-square tests of independence indicate that, in this case, there was not a relationship between respiratory problems and evacuation status. However, there was a relationship between digestive problems and evacuation status. Therefore I am not able to completely accept the hypothesis that: The evacuated and returned groups reported more health problems since the evacuation than the never evacuated group 92

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I did not accept the test that: 1.4) Evacuation status affects self-reported s y mptoms of respiratory problems. The majority of all respondents indicated that they had not experienced respiratory or cold symptoms in the six months previous to the interview The research team expected much higher rates of respiratory distress for the evacuated and returned groups because of literature that suggests displaced people tend to be affected by acute respiratory problems (Paquet and Hanquet 1998 ; Peterson Roberts, Toole, and Peterson 1998; Toole 1995; Toole and Waldman 1997 ; Toole and Waldman 1993; Toole and Waldman 1990) Furthermore, volcanic emergencies often lead to dust or ash, related respiratory problems (Smith 1996: 175) However, the results for this case did not support this assertion. It is possible that we did not receive the results that we were expecting because colds and respiratory problems were a common occurrence for interview participants; therefore, not worthy of special indication during an interview. All groups had a similar percentage of respondents reporting respiratory problems. Again, the proximity of the town of Quimiag to Mt. Tungurahua can help to explain the similarity of responses for all three groups. Smith writes that ... depending on the prevailing wind conditions, ashfall has the potential to disrupt communities several hundreds of kilometres away" (1996: 175) The wind conditions in the area often meant that Quimiag received ashfall from the volcano Therefore, the residents in the community were also likely to experience ash related respiratory problems. Within the focus group for the Quimiag locals concern was expressed about the ash affecting colds and astluna. The focus group participants also indicated that the ash was causing skin problems for some residents One woman whom I interviewed blamed the ashfall for the 93

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sores on her son's skin. She brought him over to show me that the sores were only on skin that was not covered by clothing, leading to her belief that it was caused by ashfall. Regarding digestive problems I was able to accept the test that: 1 .5) Evacuation status affects self-reported symptoms of digestive problems. Although the majority of all respondents did not indicate that they had symptoms within the past six months, those who did report symptoms came only from the evacuated and returned groups. Again, the research team was surprised by the low level of reported digestive problem symptoms. The literature suggests that diarrheal disease is a major health issue affecting displaced people (Paquet and Banquet 1998; Peterson, Roberts, Toole, and Peterson 1998; Toole 1995; Toole and Waldman 1997; Toole and Waldman 1993; Toole and Waldman 1990) This is especially so for people living in shelters because they often have poor access to water and sanitation facilities (Bantavala and Zwi 2000). The actual rate of diarrhea might have been higher than was reported. It is possible that diarrhea was such a common occurrence, that people did not make any special note of it during the interviews. Additionally, it is, perhaps, a reflection of the careful public health preparations ofthe shelters that there were so few reported cases of diarrhea. Although there were low numbers of reported symptoms of digestive problems overall, what makes these results significant is that not one person in the never evacuated group indicated symptoms of digestive problems Possibly the displacement during the evacuation created situations that affected digestive health. People who are displaced often have to live in situations where there is not much stability. Those who go to shelters often have to contend with crowded living facilities, as well as communal 94

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kitchens and toilets. These communal facilities can negatively affect sanitation, which can lead to increased digestive problems. PERCEPTIONS OF ASSISTANCE The second research question addressed 2.) What are the perceptions of the assistance that has been given to people affected by the volcano ? The results of chi square tests of independence have indicated that there is a relationship between evacuation status and perceptions of assistance from both the government and NGOs. Evacuation status did affect how people perceived the assistance given during the evacuation. Government In the case of perceptions of government assistance given during the evacuation of the Mt. Tungurahua area, the differences in the responses given by the three groups were significant. I accepted the hypothesis that: Perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affect perceptions of governmental assistance The group of early returnees to Banos had the most obvious difference in perceptions. They had the highest percentage of responses that indicated they felt as if the government had done little to nothing Both the evacuated group and the never evacuated group had about half of their respondents reporting that they perceived the government as providing little to no assistance (Figure 6) I believe that these perception differences can be attributed to the particular situation of each group. For example, the people interviewed in Bafi.os, in general, were much more on their own in handling the effects ofthe evacuation. Although some of the people in the returned group had spent time in shelters, many also stayed with family or 95

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rented apartments. In comparison, the evacuated group was made up of people living in government shelters and in resettlements, meaning that they were receiving some sort of government assistance. However, this does not indicate that they were receiving adequate assistance Figure 6: Bar Graph of Perceptions of Government Assistance by Evacuation Status 80 60 40 20 Little to Nothing What has the government done? Evacuated Status (from Evacu arion) Ev acuated The assistance given to the evacuees most likely did not reach all people Opinions were expressed in the focus group interview with the returned group that the assistance given has been corrupt and unequally distributed An example of unequal distribution is that although there were about 25,000 people evacuated, only between 1,500-2,000 people were housed i n temporary shelters (Agence France-Presse 1999b, 1999c; OCHA 1999d) If shelters were not readily available, then this might have posed a greater financial burden on those who evacuated, possibly leading to the decision to 96

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return to their homes while the volcano was still active Furthermore when asked about why they returned early the Banos returnees provided a variety of respon ses The most frequent responses included lack of employment in the evacuated area, economic hardship as well as that the military had left the area, allowing them to return to their homes. This indicates that economic difficulties might have pushed people to return. Another consideration in the interpretation of these results is that those who returned early to Baiios had fought against the government to be allowed to return to their homes. Since at the time of the interviews Mt. Tungurahua had not had the major eruption that had been predicted, many people were upset at the government for having made them evacuate. This anger was expressed during focus group interviews, with some participants saying that they felt as if they had been taken advantage of by the government with the evacuation and that they had been falsely frightened into leaving. These negative feelings would most likely permeate their perceptions of the government's actions of assistance during the evacuation. NGOS The results of the chi-square test of independence reveal that there is a relationship between evacuation status and perceptions ofNGO assistance. The differences in the responses given by the three groups are significant. I accepted the hypothesis that: Perceptions of assistance differ according to evacuation status. The situation of each group will affect perceptions of NGO assistance. Overall, among all interview participants the perception of assistance given by NGOs was more positive than government assistance. The majority of the evacuees and never evacuated responded that 97

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NGOs had provided resources, and the early returnees in Banos were almost evenly split in their perceptions ofNGO assistance (See Figure 7). Figure 7: Bar Graph of Perceptions of NGO Assistance by Evacuation Status 80 60 40 20 Linle to Nothing Resources What has the government done? Evacuated Status lii11iiRetumed (from Evacu arion) Although the returned group perceived NGO assistance more favorably than they did government assistance, there were still negative responses. The factors affecting the negative responses from the returned group are likely similar to ones that were discussed in reference to perceptions of government assistance, namely, severe economic issues while evacuated. Another major consideration, which interviews with NGO leaders in Ecuador revealed, is that organizations were not allowed to pro vi de assistance in highrisk areas because people were not supposed to be there. Those people who had returned before August 2000, when the alert level had been lowered to yellow, were most likely not receiving resources from NGOs. 98

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Those who were still evacuated at the time of the interviews likely had higher perceptions ofNGO assistance than the early returnees for similar reasons as explained earlier in the government assistance section. Primarily, those who were still evacuated were receiving some sort of assistance Although the shelters were run by the government, they did receive supplies from NGOs. In the case of the resettled group, they received considerable help from the provincial branches of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Health. Although these are government agencies, many people cited these as NGOs, or foundations that assisted them This might suggest that those affected by the evacuation make distinctions between the local government and national government. For the resettled group, the provincial government was involved in providing them with land and assisting them with farming. However, they did not indicate that they received anything directly from the national government. Within the never evacuated group the majority of interviewees responded that NGOs had provided resources to people affected by the volcano These perceptions are likely based on the assistance the local townspeople have seen given to the resettled group These perceptions cannot be applied in relation to the evacuated group as a whole, or be representative of the perceptions that people in the rest of the country shared The local residents in Quimiag did not see the problems of, or the assistance given to, people living in other parts of the country. Their perceptions are based only on their experiences in their hometown. Therefore, I am not able to speculate that the rest of the country has the same perceptions of assistance given to those who were affected by the volcano. In all three groups the perceptions of assistance were much more negative regarding government assistance than NGO assistance. This difference in perceptions 99

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towards the government and NGOs might reflect larger issues within the country, rather than just feelings about the Mt. Tungurahua evacuation. As discussed in the Background chapter, Ecuadpr has been facing many economic and political issues in the past few years. These problems cannot be separated from the evacuation situation; they are a part of it. Many of the political and economic decisions are made in Quito, which is quite a distance from all the communities interviewed in June 2000 Likely many of the decisions about the evacuation were not made locally. This might have led to even more negative perceptions of the national government. DISCUSSION The research questions that have guided this thesis concern perceptions of the short-term effects of a government mandated evacuation and perceptions of assistance given to those who were affected by Mt. Tungurahua The results indicate that although some short-term effects span across all evacuees, the particular situation in which people lived during the evacuation often influenced these effects. The results also indicate that the evacuation increased vulnerability and created a disaster for the 25,000 people involved. As defined in the Literature Review, there are many different types of vulnerability. There were certain types of vulnerability that already existed in Ecuador that helped lead to the situation These included economic vulnerability, social protection vulnerability, and educational vulnerability At the time that Mt. Tungurahua became active again Ecuador was facing serious economic problems These economic problems likely affected how well the government could deal with the evacuation, creating a greater social protection vulnerability for its citizens. The government likely did not have 100

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enough resources to adequately monitor the volcano nor to prepare and support an evacuation. The people living near Mt. Tungurahua were also educationally vulnerable at the time of the evacuation As stated in focus groups, some people felt as if scare tactics had been used to persuade them to evacuate. This indicates that people were not necessarily informed about what type of volcanic activity, or inactivity could be expected When the volcano did not erupt as predicted, many people lost trust in volcanic predictions. Peterson writes that volcanic activity that does not end with an eruption can often create disillusionment with and distrust of scientific efforts of prediction (Peterson 1996 : 706). The evacuation itself created greater vulnerability for those who were evacuated. Removing people from their homes, jobs, land, and animals increased their economic and livelihood vulnerability. The evacuation also increased social vulnerability by separating the community, making it difficult for them to work together to attempt to solve the problems created by the volcano and evacuation. Lavell writes that communities that can organize themselves have a greater chance of managing the effects of a disaster than does one that is lacking social cohesion (1994 : 58-59) The decisions made by humans in how they deal with the volcanic hazard ofMt. Tungurahua created a disaster Some might argue that since at the time of the interviews in June 2000 there had not been a major eruption that a disaster had not occurred. However, the volcano was the hazard that prompted the evacuation of so many people. Although Mt. Tungurahua did not reach its full potential of harm, it has affected people in many ways. As defined earlier in the Literature Review, disasters occur when hazards impact societies in such ways as death, economic loss, and disruption of social workings 101

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This evacuation did lead to economic loss, as shown through this thesis, and the disruption of social workings. Even though this thesis did not address the disruption of social workings, the very fact that people were forced to leave their homes, family, and employment is itself a disruption I cannot however write about the degree of this social disruption. In this situation a disaster was created by the decisions made by the government with how they would enforce a mandatory evacuation. The government was likely attempting to protect the community from the possible destruction and death that a major eruption ofMt. Tungurahua would cause It should be remembered that the most serious volcanic disaster of the 20th Century, the Nevado del Ruiz eruption, occurred in neighboring Colombia. The occurrence of this disaster is largely blamed on the government's failure to take the hazard seriously and to prepare adequately for a possible eruption The result of that failure was the death of over 23,000 people The Ecuadorian government presumably did not want to risk the lives of so many people in their own country, nor be blamed for such inaction as occurred in Colombia. In light of the volcanologists' predictions that Mt. Tungurahua had an 80% chance of erupting, it was necessary to evacuate. This is especially so considering the political and economic unrest in Ecuador during 1999 and 2000 A possible scenario is that had Mt. Tungurahua erupted as predicted and there had not been a government enforced evacuation, this might have led to the deaths of thousands of people. In response, major chaos could have erupted with anger directed towards the national government. Although blame for the negative effects of the evacuation might be placed on the government for not having engaged in well thought out actions, it must also be 102

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remembered that Ecuador is a developing country, meaning that it is in a state of economic vulnerability. It did not necessarily have the economic means to independently address this situation. Furthermore the volcano became active again in August 1999, leaving only a limited time before the predictions for a major eruption in October 1999. Many people were likely taken offguard with this short period of time to plan. However, in my opinion, one of the first mistakes made by the government was the inclusion of the military in the evacuation. Many people whom we interviewed expressed that they felt the military's presence created a distrust of the situation. Although the government likely included the military to keep the evacuation in control, it led some people to question the government's actions and motivations. A second mistake made by the government was treating the eruption as a definite occurrence. Although the volcano was predicted to have an 80% chance of erupting, volcanic predictions are never definite. The government should have attempted to educate the public about the inexactness of volcanic eruption prediction. Since the volcano did not erupt as predicted, some of the people that we interviewed now do not trust the government's volcanic warnings. A third mistake that turned this evacuation into a disaster was the lack of assistance given to help the evacuees when they were forced to leave their homes. Not enough shelters were created and no sort of program was developed to help compensate people for the economic burdens they faced being away from their homes and jobs. Food and shelter were provided, but this assistance did not reach all people involved with the evacuation. It is unlikely that Ecuador could have afforded to support the 25,000 evacuees during the months of evacuation, especially considering the economic situation 103

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during that particular time However, the government could have done some minor things that might have lessened the economic impact of the evacuation. These could have included the suspension of utility bills and a subsidized food program for the evacuees. What is unique about volcanic disasters are their prolonged nature. With other natural disasters, such as flooding or hurricanes, an event occurs and causes damage After the event, peoples' efforts can then be placed on recovery. In some cases this can also happen with volcanoes. However, the somewhat unpredictable behavior of volcanoes makes preparation and recovery processes much more difficult. Volcanoes can sometimes remain active for a number of years with a continual threat of eruption This threat can lead to evacuations that may last for indefinite periods oftime, or might even lead to multiple evacuations. The uncertainty of when an eruption might occur and of what magnitude it might be can lead to decisions and plans that create a disaster without any major hazardous event ever happening. This is an important fact that needs to be considered in the discussion of volcanic disasters. In the next chapter, the Conclusion, I review some the lessons learned from research we have done with the people affected by Mt. Tungurahua. These lessons have influenced the recommendations that I present in this chapter. The recommendations arise primarily from the results of the research collected. These suggestions are meant to help mitigate some of the negative effects of the evacuation of a high-risk volcanic area. 104

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CHAPTER SEVEN CONCLUSION The results ofthis research hav e shown some of the short-term effects of the evacuation of the areas surrounding Mt. Tungurahua Although there are likely more effects than rev iewed in this the s is, the major issues that evolved out of our r e search included agricultural loss, divergent p e rceptions of ri s k for certain groups, and digestive probl e ms The effects of the evacuation created a situation in which a disaster was produced although a major volcanic eruption had not occurred At the time that I am writing this thes i s in t h e fall of2001, Mt. Tungurahua has not yet had a major eruption. However, in June 2001 the volcano became active yet again after staying relatively quiet since October 2000 This activity included ash emission and lava, but no one was injured (Agence France-Presse 2001) On August 14, 2001, Ecuador declared a state of emergency because of the severe ashfall. The ash fall has caused problems that include an increased number of cases of respiratory infections, destroyed farmland damaged houses, and sick cattle The destruction of farmland and cattle has led to a state of food insecurity for many families (WFP 2001). By September 2001, it is reported that the ash emissions have affected around 39 000 people (OCHA 2001) The continued activity ofMt. Tungurahua cre ates the poss i b i lity that a major eruption might still occur. Although the official evacuation is over and the majority of the people have returned to their homes, the situation is not finished There are likely 105

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additional economic and social effects caused by the continual threat of eruption that would be important to document in further research However what can be gained from this research on the short-term e f fects of evacuation are suggestions in policy changes that might make future evacuation efforts more succe ssful. If it is again predicted that Mt. Tungurahua might have a serious eruption, the government might decide once more to evacuate high risk communities In this Conclusion, I provide recommendations that aim to lessen the negative impacts that ev a cuation might cause on the s e communities. RECOMMENDATIONS The research results shown in this thesis indicate the need for disaster mitigation and response policies to address the short-term effects ofthe evacuation of the Mt. Tungurahua area in October 1999. In her discussion of research involving policy, Whiteford suggests that the researcher(s) identify the audience that would benefit from the results (Whiteford 2000:11 0) The audience for the recommendations that I present in this thesis is the people and agencies involved in the policies and decisions affecting the health and safety of people living near Mt. Tungurahua. These include government agencies such as the Ministry of Health, scientific organizations like the Geophysical Institute at the National Polyteclmic, as well as NGOs such as the Red Cross. These recommendations are also directed towards international disaster research agencies, such as the Center for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, that might be able to apply the lessons learned with Mt. Tungurahua to other evacuation situa t ions in rural areas of developing countries These recommendations have developed out ofthe results c on c erning the short term effects of the evacuation They are to meant to help make any future evacuations 106

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less harmful for those involved When involved in policy related research, Whiteford recommends that the researcher be realistic about the limitations under which people are operating (Whiteford 2000:11 0). Therefore, I present these recommendations with the knowledge that many of the short-term effects documented in this thesis are, in part the result of the economic stability of Ecuador. The national government does not have adequate finances and i s limited in its ability to fund the types of preparation and assistance activities that would be needed However some of these recommendations do not need great financial support. Those that do would require funding from sources outside Ecuador. Considering that the majority of the world's most high-risk volcanoes are located in developing countries (Voight 1996 : 762), this situation needs to be taken seriously by the more developed nations. Developed nations often have access to more advanced monitoring systems, which could assist in the observation of volcanic activity and the prediction of major eruptions More economically stable countries also have access to funds that might be invested in efforts to support the evacuation of high-risk areas. Without assistance from developed countries, there is the potential that a disaster like Nevada del Ruiz could happen again My eight recommendations for policy changes regarding evacuation are : 1 Increase educational activities 2 Prepare communities for influx of evacuees 3 Create registry of people living in high-risk areas 4. Develop shelters for livestock 5. Small livestock voucher program 6. Suspend utility bills in evacuated area s 7. Create a food subsidy program for evacuees 8. Distribute soap to shelter residents 107

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1. Increase Educational Activities My first recommendation is to develop policies that increase educational activities, which reduce peoples' vulnerability regarding the volcano Our results have shown that one of the short-term effects of the evacuation was that 50% of those people who chose to return early to their homes in high-risk areas stated that they did not worry about the volcano. This lack of worry, whether real or assumed, has the potential of putting people in harm's way should, in the future, Mt. Tungurahua have a major eruption. Therefore, I believe it is necessary for people to understand the potential harm from volcanic eruption, the inexactness of volcanic prediction, and the evacuation plans should major activity ensue This education should be forthright so that people understand the situation It should attempt to provide information without using scare tactics There are a variety of media that could and should be used to educate the public about the volcanic hazard. Information could be spread through pamphlets, newspaper articles, radio broadcasts, and television broadcasts What I believe might be beneficial would be a series of informational meetings in the high-risk areas with volcanologists present to answer questions and address concerns Although many of these scientists are very busy monitoring the activity level of Ecuador's volcanoes, the one on one contact might help people better understand their neighboring volcano. Since the information presented would be coming directly from the scientists, rather than being filtered through the government or news agencies, might be more believable to those living near the volcano. Along with public meetings held with scientists, meetings should be held with people directly involved with evacuation plans These meetings might include Civil 108

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Defense officials local government officials or NGO re presentat ive s The purpose of these meetings is to educate people about preparedness activities and evacuation plans If possible, these meetings should be held well in advance of any major volcanic activity so that people have the information to make decisions about their own actions Another way of increasing peoples' understanding of the volcano and community preparedness plans is to develop a program that trains communit y members to educate their neighbors Ideally, those people tra i ned should be local residents who represent the many neighborhoods and communities in the high-risk areas. This training can include information about the volcano, the difficulty in accurately predicting eruptions, and the preparedness or evacuation plans These community members could then become educational leaders in their neighborhoods and educate their neighbors For the people living in high-risk areas, information about the volcano might be more trustworthy coming from a neighbor than a government official. 2. Prepare Communities for Influx of Evacuees My second recommendation is to better prepare surrounding commun iti es for the influx of evacuees This preparation should also attempt to increase people's knowledge about the volcanic hazard as well as evacuation procedures. What is more important, this preparation should identify specific locations for shelters. Additional locations for temporary shelters might be needed Furthermore, the government might want to consider building structures that could serve as temporary or long-tem1 shelters. As stated earlier, only a few thousand people used shelters during the 1999-2000 evacuation By increasing the number of possible shelters, more people might be able to receive this 109

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type of assistance should another evacuation occur It is hoped that this could help to decrease the number of people made homeless by the evacuation 3. Create a Registry of People Living in High-Risk Areas My third recommendation is for the government to create a specific registry of all people living in the high-risk areas The government should then consider issuing unique identification cards that signify a person is from a high-risk area This card can be connected to the national registry Through the registration of all people, the government will have an accurate count of how many people might potentially be affected, and docwnentation of where they are living This should be done as a preparation measure for a future evacuation. However, what is more important is that by issuing identification cards, services to the evacuees might be provided more easily. It might also help the government and NGOs keep track of how many people are receiving services and what kinds of services are being used For example, the use of identification cards might help the government and NGOs accurately count the people making use of government shelters Furthermore, an identification card could help ensure that non-evacuees are not benefiting from the serv i ces meant for the evacuated people 4. Develop Shelters for Livestock If an evacuation must occur, my fourth recommendation attempts to lessen the impact of agricultural loss. As discussed in the Analy s is chapter, agricultural problems were much more severe for all the evacuated people interviewed than for those who had not been evacuated. One major agricultural problem cited by interview participants was the loss of animals. When the evacuation occurred, it was so sudden that people were often forced to leave their animals behind. Other people had no place to keep the i r 110

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animals in the evacuated area and ended up selling their animals at reduced rates. For many families, the animals provided not only a continual source of food, like eggs and milk but were used to help with work. If an evacuation were again ordered, to help ensure that people do not have to leave their animals behind or be forced to sell them, the government might consider developing shelters for animals. These shelters could have a system of checking in and registering animals so that proper ownership could be maintained If identification cards have been issued, as I previously suggested, this might assist in documenting ownership. These shelters might also provide employment for some of the evacuees. 5. Small Livestock Voucher Program My fifth recommendation also concerns attempting to lessen agricultural loss. For smaller animals, such as chickens, rabbits or guinea pigs, the government, or a participating NGO, might consider a type of voucher program. People could give their small animals to the agency in charge of the voucher program, and in return they receive a voucher that, when the evacuation is over would provide them another animal. The animals that are given to the program could then be used for nutrition programs for the evacuees. By using this voucher system, people would not have to worry about losing or caring for their small animals during the evacuation period. They would also not have to sell their animals for less than they are worth which might leave them unable to afford new animals when they returned home. 6. Suspend Utility Bills in Evacuated Areas Although economic issues were present for all people interviewed regardless of evacuation status, those who were evacuated did face additional economic burdens. One 111

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burden that became apparent was that they were still being forced to pay utilities for their houses and apartments in the evacuated areas. Therefore, my sixth recommendation is that if another evacuation occurs, the obligation to pay utilities such as water and electricity in the evacuated area be suspended until evacuation orders are lifted If people are not in their homes or businesses using water and electricity, they should not have to continue paying for those services. This has been an extra financial burden on evacuees especially for those who rented apartments in other towns and were then responsible for paying utilities at two locations 7. Create a Food Subsidy Program for Evacuees A seventh recommendation to help ease the economic burden is the creation of a food subsidy program for evacuees This might take the form of a food stamp program or specialized subsidy stores When an evacuation occurs many people are taken away from their livelihood and additional subsistence activities. In the safe areas to where they are evacuated, many might not earn enough money to afford food or might not have land on which to raise subsistence crops The reduction of the cost of food for those involved in the evacuation might ensure that people, especially children, are receiving adequate nutrition. In order for a food subsidy program to be effective, and not misused by non evacuees, adequate preparation would need to be needed before the evacuation occurs to identify who comes from the evacuated high-risk areas. My previous recommendation of the creation and distribution of identification cards might ease the process. 8. Distribute Soap To Shelter Residents My final recornni.endation attempts to address the health issue of diarrhea, which in our study affected only people who were evacuated Although the numbers of reported 112

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cases were not extremely high, they were only reported for those who had been evacuated Since the instability of living conditions, especially the crowded conditions, cannot be easily altered during an evacuation, one suggestion is to increase soap distribution According to a study conducted in a Mozambican refugee camp in Malawi during 1993, the distribution of soap led to 27% fewer cases of diarrhea in households that had soap as compared to those that did not (Peterson et al. 1998 : 520). Distributing soap could be an easy and cost-effective way of preventing diarrhea in crowded living conditions. CONCLUSION Through this thesis, some of the self-reported short-term effects and perceptions of evacuation in the Mt. Tungurahua area have been documented. These perceptions have been important to document because they reflect peoples' experiences with the evacuation and its aftermath With this documentation, if future volcanic activity occurs, then decisions can be made with these past experiences in mind. The recommendations presented in this thesis are attempts to ease the negative effects ofthe human decision to evacuate communities in high-risk volcanic areas In the case ofMt. Tungurahua, the situation is not over yet. The disaster is in a prolonged state with no real definite end. Even if the current activity of the volcano dies down, it is likely that Mt. Tungurahua will not stay silent forever. In years to come, the people living near this volcano might find themselves in the same predicament. For this group of people, and others who live near active volcanoes, evacuation and preparedness plans need to be developed that do not create crises out of what was meant to be assistance The results of this research can help guide those who will make future decisions 113

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BBC 2000 Ecuador Waves Goodb y e to National CurrencySeptember 11, 2000. Electronic document http :// www bbc co u k/ worldservice/bus i nesslhighlights / 000911 ecuador.html, acce ss ed February 2, 2001 Banatvala N. and A.B. Zwi 2000 Public Health and Humanitarian Interventions: Developing the Evidence Base British Medical Joumal321 : 101-105 Banos de Agua Santa 2000 Banos de Agua Santa Ecuador Electronic document, http :// www.baniosdeaguasanta com, accessed June 26, 2000. Bernard, H Russell 1994 Research Methods in Anthropolo gy : Qual i tative and Quantit ativ e Approaches Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications Inc Blaikie Piers, Terry Cannon Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner 1994 At Risk : Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters. New York : Routledge Blong, R.J. 1996 Volcanic Hazards Risk A s sessment. In Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards Roberto Scarpa and Robert I. Tilling, ed s Pp 675-698 Berlin: Springer-Verlag Britannica 2001 Ecuador. Electronic document http : / /www. britannica com/eb/article?eu=l 090 15&tocid=O accessed July 20, 2001. Burton, Ian, Robert W. Kates, and Gilbert F. White 1993 The Environment as Hazard New York : The Guilford Press Cannon Terry 1994 Vulnerab i lity Analysis and the Explanation of "Natural" Disasters In Disasters, Development and Environment. Ann Varley ed Pp 1330. New York : John Wiley & Sons, Inc Center for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CDMHA) 2000 About CDMHA. Electronic document http :// www.cdmha org, accessed September 11, 2000 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 2000 CIA Fact Book-Ecuador. Electronic document, http :// www odci. gov / cialpublications / factbook/ec html accessed June 25 2000 115

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Erv in, Alexander M. 2000 Applied Anthropology : Tools and Perspectives for Contemporary Practice. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon ExploRed 2000a ExploRed ECUADOR online Chimborazo. Electronic document http : //www.explored com.ec/ecuador /c him htm accessed September 17, 2000. 2000b ExploRed ECUADOR online Chimborazo Agriculture Electronic document, http :// www .e xplored.com.ec /e cuador / continue / chim3 htm accessed September 17, 2000 2000c ExploRed ECUADOR online Chimborazo Geography Electronic document, http: // www.explored com.ec /e cuador / continue / chim 1.htm, accessed September 17, 2000. 2000d ExploRed ECUADOR online Chimborazo History Electronic document http :// www explored com.ec/ecuador / continue/chim5 htm accessed September 17, 2000 2000e ExploRedECUADOR online-ChimborazoTourism Electronic document, http://www.explored.com.ec/ecuador/continue / chim4 htm, accessed September 17, 2000 2000f ExploRed ECUADOR online Tungurahua. Electronic document, http:/ / www.explored.com ec / ecuador / tungu htm, accessed July 7, 2000 2000g ExploRed ECUADOR online Tungurahua Agriculture Electronic do c ument, http:/ / www explored.com.ec / ecuador / continue / tung3.htm, accessed July 7, 2000. 2000h ExploRed -ECUADOR online TungurahuaGeography Electronic document http :/ /www explored com ec / ecuador / continue / tung2 htm, accessed July 7, 2000. 2000i ExploRed ECUADOR online Tungurahua History Electronic document, http: // www .explored com .ec/ ecuador / continue / tung5 htm, acces s ed July 7, 2000. 2000j ExploRed ECUADOR online Tungurahua Tourism. Electronic document http :// www explored.com ec / ecuador / continue / tun g 4 htm accessed July 7, 2000. 117

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Mothes, Patricia 2000 Waiting for the Eruption : Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador. Geotimes 45(3):26-27. Murphy, Alan 1999 Ecuador and Galapagos Handbook. Bath : Footprint Handbooks Nakada, Setsuya 2000 Hazards from Pyroclastic Flows and Surges In Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Haraldur Sigurdsson, ed. Pp 945-955. San Diego : Academic Press. Newhall, C.G. and R.S Punongbayan . 1996 The Narrow Margin of Successful Volcanic-Risk Mitigation. In Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards Roberto Scarpa and Robert I. Tilling, eds. Pp. 807-838. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. OAS 2001 Ecuador: Tourist Arrivals. Electronic document, http : //www oas org/tourism/ecuador.htm, accessed May 4, 2001. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 2001 Ecuador-Volcano Tungurahua OCHA Situation Report No .4-September 2001 Electronic document, http:www.reliefweb int.w / rwb.nsf, accessed September 30, 2001. 1999a EcuadorVolcanoes Guagua Pichincha and Tungurahua OCHA Situation Report No .1October 5, 1999 Electronic document, http : //www.reliefweb int/w/rwb.nsf, accessed May 6, 2001. 1999b Ecuador Volcanoes Guagua Pichincha and Tungurahua OCHA Situation Report No 2 October 11, 1999. Electronic document, http : //www reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf, accessed May 6, 2001. 1999c EcuadorVolcanoes Guagua Pichincha and Tungurahua OCHA Situation Report No.3October 18, 1999 Electronic document http : //www reliefweb.int/w / rwb nsf, accessed May 6, 2001 1999d Ecuador-Volcanoes Guagua Pichincha and Tungurahua OCHA Situation Report No 4 October 21, 1999 Electronic document http : //www reliefweb.int/w / rwb.nsf, accessed May 6, 2001. 120

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Wijkman, Anders and Lloyd Timberlake 1984 Natural Disasters : Acts of God or Acts ofMan? London and Washington, D.C. : International Institute for Environment and Development and the Swedish Red Cross World Food Programme (WFP) 2001 Ecuador : Volcanic Eruption Triggers New Emergency August 17, 2001 E l ectronic document, http :// www.reliefweb.int/w rwb.nsf, accessed September 30, 2001. Xinhua 1999 Ecuador's President Orders Evacuation Close to Volcano October 16 1999. Electronic document http :// www reliefweb int/w/rwb nsf, accessed May 6 2001. Young Dennis R. 1999 Complementary, Supplementary, or Adversial ? A Theoretical and Historical Examination of NonprofitGovernment Relations in the United States In Nonprofits and Government. Elizabeth T Boris and C Eugene Steuerle, eds Pp. 31 67 Washington, D C.: The Urban Institute Press 124

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APPENDIX A: JUNE 2000 QUESTIONNAIRE INTRODUCTION -Hello my name is and I am a graduate student at the University of South Florida. We're doing a survey in this community to learn about your health and the health of your family for the last 12 months This survey won't take too much of your time. We would really appreciate your taking the time to speak with us. PERCEPTIONS OF RISKI've read about the volcanoes here in Ecuador and now I would like to know what you think about them. 1) Are you worried about the volcano? 2) Did you have to evacuate? If not evacuated skip to question # 17 3)When were you evacuated? Indicate month/year 4) Did you leave voluntarily? 5) Where did you go? 1 = Not worried 2 = A little worried 3 = Sometimes 4 = Very worried 5 = Extremely worried Yes No Yes No (Probes : Shelter first? Then relocated to other place? Friends? Family?) 6) Did anyone help you to evacuate? 7) If yes, who helped you? 8) Who came with you when you evacuated? Yes No _Family member Friend Govt. agency NGO Other, please specify : _No help 9) Did all of your children accompany you when you evacuted ? Yes 126 No

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) 1 0) At the time, did you think it was necessary to evacuate? Yes No ************************************************************************ FOR BANOS (RETURNED EVACUEES) 11) For how long were you evacuated? 12) Why did you come back? 1 = Less than a week 2 = 1 to 2 weeks 3 = 3 weeks to 1 month 4 = 1 to 3 months 5 = 3 to 6 months ************************************************************************ QUESTIONS FOR QUIMIAG & COLEGIO BOLIVAR (NON-RETURNED EVACUEES) 13) Do you want to return to your home? Yes No 14) Why haven't you returned? ************************************************************************ 15) Why did you decide to evacuate? (Probe: Who made the decision? Was the decision discussed within the family?) 16) Now do you think that the volcano is a risk to you and your family? 127 1 =No risk 2 = Little risk 3 = Moderate risk 4 = High risk 5 = Very high risk

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) ************************************************************************ QUESTIONS FOR NON-EVACUEES 17) Do you think that the volcano is a risk to you and your family? 1 =No risk 2 = Little risk 3 = Moderate risk 4 = High risk 5 =Very high risk 18) Do you think it (the volcano) posed a risk to those who evacuated? _Yes No 19) Is Quimiag a good place for the evacuees to stay/remain? Yes No 20) Why (or why not) is Quimiag a good place for them to remain? ************************************************************************ DEMOGRAPHICS (ALL) 21) Indicate the sex of the participant Male Female 22) How old are you? ______ 23) How many people live with you in your house? ______ 24) How are those people related to you (family/friendship relationship)? a) _Family_ Friend b) Family Friend --c) _Family_ Friend d) _Family_ Friend What are their ages? a) b) 128

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) c) d) 25) How many children age 5 and younger live in your household? -------26) Are these all your children? If not, how are they related to you? Yes No ---Please indicate relationship and age for each one. a) b) c) 27) What do you do for a living? Business Independent store Agriculture _Grocery Store Cafe/Restaurant HOUSEHOLD HEALTH FOR LAST 6 MONTHS -Please indicate the following information for your household in the last 6 months : 28) In your household, have any of the men or boys been sick in the last 6 months? a) Age _____ 129 Yes No _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness:

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) b) Age __________ c) Age _____ d) Age __________ 130 _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness: Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness : _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness :

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) 29) In your household, have any of the women or girls been sick in the last 6 months ? a) Age _____ b) Age _________ c) Age ____________ 131 Yes No _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness: Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness: _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness :

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) d) Age _____ CHILD HEALTH HISTORY _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness: 30) Please indicate each child under 5 that has been sick in the past 2 weeks. a) Has any treatment been given for illness? 132 Male Female Age ____________ Yes No Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness : Yes No No treatment _Family treatment Clinic vis i t _Hospital visit Please indicate specific treatment -------Result: ___

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b) c) APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) Has any treatment been given for illness? 133 Male Female Age ____________ Yes No Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness : Yes No No treatment _Family treatment Clinic visit _Hospital visit Please indicate specific treatment __________ Result: --------Male Female Age ____________ Yes No _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness:

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d) APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) Has any treatment been given for illness ? Has any treatment been given for illness? Yes No No treatment _Family treatment Clinic visit _Hospital visit Please indicate spec i fic treatment -----Result: ----Male Female Age _____ Yes No _Respiratory Problems Stomach Problems Diarrhea _Eyes Skin Throat Problems Other Indicate illness: Yes No No treatment _Family treatment Clinic visit _Hospital visit Please indicate specific treatment ------Result: ___ 31) Did your child's illness cause any change in the household daily routine / duties ? Yes No 134

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) GENDER ROLES 32) Who takes care of the children in your household on a daily basis ? You Your mother Your sister Your aunt _Other, indicate : 33) Who is directly responsible for monitoring your child's hea l th? 34) If your child needs to visit the doctor clinic or hospital, who makes that decision? NETWORKS 35) Are you parents still alive? 36) If yes, do they live nearby? 3 7) Do you help them in some way? 38) If yes, how do you help them? What do you do? 39) Do you have any sisters or brothers who live close by? 40) How many of each? 41) Do you see any of your sisters or brothers ? 135 Yes No Yes No Yes No Financial Food _Company Other Please Indicate : Yes Yes No No

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) 42) If yes, how often? 1 =Never 2 = Occasionally _3 =Monthly _4=Weekly _5 =Daily 43) Who do you turn to for assistance in family crisis situations? 44) What kind of assistance have you received from them? 45) Have you received assistance from other people? (Probe: Who?) 46) Do you have any friends nearby now? Sisters Parents / Grandparents _Spouse Priest Doctor Other Please Indicate: Yes No Yes No INDICES OF PROBLEMS -A lot of things have been going on in Ecuador in the past year. I'd like to know what kinds of things have affected you and your family in particular 47) Has your family faced any crises in the last 6-8 months?_ Yes No If yes, what are they? (Probes: Loss of crops, loss oflivestock, loss of home, loss of bank funds, evacuation, lack of money, devaluation, coup d'etat, volcano, flooding, family illness, family death, other) 48) Please rank responses from worst to least bad: (Probe: Which was the worst?) 136

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APPENDIX A (CONTINUED) 49) Are there any on-going losses you are continuing to experience? _Yes No (Probe : If yes what kinds oflosses?) 50) What has the government done to help people affected by the volcano? 51) What have non-governmental agencies done to help people affected by the volcano? 52) What do you think the government should do to help people affected by the volcano? I thank you very much for your time. 137


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