White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

Citation

Material Information

Title:
White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range
Series Title:
Biological Conservation
Creator:
Thogmartin, Wayne E.
Sanders-Reed, Carol A.
Szymanski, Jennifer A.
McKann, Patrick C.
Pruitt, Lori
King, R. Andrew
Runge, Michael C.
Russell, Robin E.
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Bats ( local )
Demographic Model ( local )
Endangered Species ( local )
Extinction Risk ( local )
Fungus ( local )
Geomyces Destructans ( local )
Myotis Sodalis ( local )
Wns ( local )
Genre:
serial ( sobekcm )

Notes

Abstract:
White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.
Original Version:
Biological Conservation, Vol. 160 (2013-04).

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University of South Florida Library
Holding Location:
University of South Florida
Rights Management:
This object is protected by copyright, and is made available here for research and educational purposes. Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the object beyond the bounds of Fair Use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.

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